Jan 12th to Approx Jan 27th diff thread (3.5%)

[notlist3d]

Doing this again to help.  Phil is more then welcome to take back his difficulty threads at any time.

After last week it's looking a little better this week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    45,493,398,715 (+3.46%)
Adjust time:    After 1995 Blocks, About 14.6 days
Hashrate(?):    297,824,921 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

Not a moderated thread.  Please keep anti-mining, people bashing, etc out of thread.

As always Happy Mining!

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[mavericklm]

i vote for .... +7%!

[suchmoon]

I'm making a bold prediction here but I have a very good feeling about being right for once.

The difficulty will either increase or decrease in this cycle. Mark my words. I'll make sure to come back to gloat.

Seriously though, it's way way too early. I'll check back at 500 and 1000 blocks. Bitcoinwisdom prediction doesn't make much sense, because it looks like the last 504 blocks were ~5% slower than the previous difficulty (10.5 minutes average time 480 of those 504 blocks were in the previous cycle).

[armedmilitia]

2% or greater decrease this period, you heard it here first folks 
Hey, I can dream. Seriously though, block #338697 (mined today) is the longest-to-be found block since 2011. Based on that info alone (because fuck accuracy in general), I'm predicting the decrease.

https://blockchain.info/block/000000000000000017cc86db7da330be9b00cc7256db16710eb71971da3894b5

[klondike_bar]

I feel like we could see something drastic, like -5%, in the coming difficulty period.

There is little incentive to buy hardware right now (anything over 1BTC/TH isnt a great price, and anything under 1.5BTC/TH is really cutting into the manufacturer budget) at BTC<$275

There's also a LOT of hardware (probably 5%) that will turn off because the difficulty increase got them, and another 10% that will do it because BTC<$275 isnt viable

[skuser]

I'm making a bold prediction here but I have a very good feeling about being right for once.

The difficulty will either increase or decrease in this cycle. Mark my words. I'll make sure to come back to gloat.

Seriously though, it's way way too early. I'll check back at 500 and 1000 blocks. Bitcoinwisdom prediction doesn't make much sense, because it looks like the last 504 blocks were ~5% slower than the previous difficulty (10.5 minutes average time 480 of those 504 blocks were in the previous cycle).

+1

I think bitcoinwisdom just uses some average of last x diff changes and later adjusts to more accurate numbers with more blocks being mined because as you say hashrate is currently way down even with last 1000 blocks counted in.

[railzand]

surely it's gotta go down - cex.io forgot to upgrade their hardware and turned off their cloud mining. that's a big chunk

[BTCish]

I am saying that it will be negative, how much ? Hard to tell.

[notlist3d]

228 per coin.... ouch.   This hurts all miners.

[klondike_bar]

228 per coin.... ouch.   This hurts all miners.

My guess is that at $280 we would see a 0% change. every $10 more or less than that will probably be a 1% difference.

right now i think -6% is pretty damn likely. Ive turned off the S2 and the BTCGarden for now, but all my SP-tech gear is still profitable and raking in btc.

[philipma1957]

228 per coin.... ouch.   This hurts all miners.

My guess is that at $280 we would see a 0% change. every $10 more or less than that will probably be a 1% difference.

right now i think -6% is pretty damn likely. Ive turned off the S2 and the BTCGarden for now, but all my SP-tech gear is still profitable and raking in btc.

if you switched to sp20's or s-5's you are good to go.


if you are at 600 watts/ 1200 gh     10 cents a kwatt   1 sp20   with the price at 228 usd you earn 1.63 a day over the power price.

if you are at 800 watts 1000 gh       10 cents a kwatt 2 s-3's    "      "      "     "    "    "     you earn 64 cents a day over the power price.


these are good numbers  for those that have switched out.

[notlist3d]

228 per coin.... ouch.   This hurts all miners.

My guess is that at $280 we would see a 0% change. every $10 more or less than that will probably be a 1% difference.

right now i think -6% is pretty damn likely. Ive turned off the S2 and the BTCGarden for now, but all my SP-tech gear is still profitable and raking in btc.

if you switched to sp20's or s-5's you are good to go.


if you are at 600 watts/ 1200 gh     10 cents a kwatt   1 sp20   with the price at 228 usd you earn 1.63 a day over the power price.

if you are at 800 watts 1000 gh       10 cents a kwatt 2 s-3's    "      "      "     "    "    "     you earn 64 cents a day over the power price.


these are good numbers  for those that have switched out.

At this price I will have to think my miners before summer if it continues to drop. 

With very low price of BTC it will be interesting to see what miner prices do.

[philipma1957]

228 per coin.... ouch.   This hurts all miners.

My guess is that at $280 we would see a 0% change. every $10 more or less than that will probably be a 1% difference.

right now i think -6% is pretty damn likely. Ive turned off the S2 and the BTCGarden for now, but all my SP-tech gear is still profitable and raking in btc.

if you switched to sp20's or s-5's you are good to go.


if you are at 600 watts/ 1200 gh     10 cents a kwatt   1 sp20   with the price at 228 usd you earn 1.63 a day over the power price.

if you are at 800 watts 1000 gh       10 cents a kwatt 2 s-3's    "      "      "     "    "    "     you earn 64 cents a day over the power price.


these are good numbers  for those that have switched out.

At this price I will have to think my miners before summer if it continues to drop. 

With very low price of BTC it will be interesting to see what miner prices do.

Well do we do 2 or 3 drops of diff ?  If we don't hmmm .

[alh]

Looks like Phillip got his wish. As I type this BTCquote shows:

$180.35!!!

Everybody update your ROI spreadsheets.

[suchmoon]

Looks like Phillip got his wish. As I type this BTCquote shows:

$180.35!!!

Everybody update your ROI spreadsheets.

More like "pull the plug for a couple of weeks" 

A bit of a chaos out there, I think I saw ~$150 briefly on bitstamp.

And this: 1 block: 10.8 minutes
(8% below target)

Double digit drop this round? Almost certainly, if the exchange rate stays like that.

[philipma1957]

Ugly number = $180.35!!!


I just got up and signed on to coinbase   and it is 190.

Time to rethink about buying coins, but  my miners   are 9600th using 4800 watts at 10 cents    so I clear 8 usd a day.


If you have s-3's
and mine them at 500 gh with 400 watts and 10 cent power you are now making 5 cents a day!
Well this will drive diff down a lot.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,830,295,091 (-0.32%)

i wanna see sub 100$, who's with me?!?!?!?!?!

[seriouscoin]

How many of you sell your mined btc right away? or do any of you hold all of the mined btc?

[notlist3d]

Locking thread and started one to replace it https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=924727

Turning on moderation even though I hate it.  Please keep name calling/fighting in PM's.  It just makes the thread harder to read for others.

[gmaxwell]

FWIW, for the record I removed a wall of offtopic posts by seriouscoin which were some of the more vile posts I've run across on the mining subforums.