How similar is this Crash to the 2011 one?

[jaberwock]

Volume is indeed important and the jump in volume can't be ignored, but I'm afraid the 151/166 won't be the bottom. It's no important support, compared to 2011 the price still has a lot to drop and I can't see force in this reaction to the crash: it looks like a retracement.

Disclosure: I'm shorting this, I think the 242 were the top, but if you think my post has anything to do with this, you must considerer that I have my posts in very high esteem. It's absurd to think that an anonymous post can have any influence on bitcoin prices. Bitcoin isn't an insignificant alt coin. Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here. Trolls trying to influence the price with their posts are as ridiculous as wolfs trying to scare the moon with their howls.

You seem very confident. That's a bold step, shorting now. Well, the thing is: If everyone expects Bitcoin to go lower, it sometimes has the tendency to just do the opposite. I guess we'll have to wait and see how this plays out!

not everyone.

People in the wall observer are in buylish mode right now

[minerpumpkin]

Volume is indeed important and the jump in volume can't be ignored, but I'm afraid the 151/166 won't be the bottom. It's no important support, compared to 2011 the price still has a lot to drop and I can't see force in this reaction to the crash: it looks like a retracement.

Disclosure: I'm shorting this, I think the 242 were the top, but if you think my post has anything to do with this, you must considerer that I have my posts in very high esteem. It's absurd to think that an anonymous post can have any influence on bitcoin prices. Bitcoin isn't an insignificant alt coin. Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here. Trolls trying to influence the price with their posts are as ridiculous as wolfs trying to scare the moon with their howls.

You seem very confident. That's a bold step, shorting now. Well, the thing is: If everyone expects Bitcoin to go lower, it sometimes has the tendency to just do the opposite. I guess we'll have to wait and see how this plays out!

not everyone.

People in the wall observer are in buylish mode right now

Well, things do feel kind of different - kind of bullish - this time, after all. I gotta say, I also think the volume and action is reminiscent of old 2013 price action. But I agree that it's too early to call this a definite bull market.

[Q7]

I still have a bearish vision on the market.
A several years old uptrend line was breached and, for the first time in years, we made a drastic low, lower than the previous major top (251 on Bitstamp).
This is starting to look too similar to the 2011 crash from 31.91 (June 2011) to 1.994 USDs (November 2011: MtGox data), followed by a long slow recovery.
If we are going to see a repetition of 2011, that would be very negative.
That would mean a crash to a price of 1/16 of the price on the top. Taking the Bitstamp top of 1163, it would be a crash to 72.68. If we take the top on MtGox (1242), we get 77.62. So, very close to the price of the Silk Road crash (2 October 2013) on Bitstamp: about 85.
But the recover of the 2011 crash wasn't in V. Actually, even the crash beyond 20 (after a first V one to 10 and then back to 20), was a slow one, like this crash more or less has been. With a few retrace rallies. And then a very painful two year recover from 1.994.
Only on the end of February 2013, price was above past top of 31.91.
History rarely repeats it self exactly, but if we go to 85/77/72, we might not have a V recovery, but a slow, painful, hesitant one. It won't take years to recover (because now Bitcoin has fundamentals that it hadn't before), but might take months.
Months with a price as low as 72-100 will damage mining seriously.
Of course, since the fundamental situation is different, the recovery might be much faster.
Anyway, if these prices are reached, but one of the 130-100-85-65 support zones holds, it will be a great buy. A buy some will tell their grandsons about.

Since you have quoted the example and with what we saw during the 2011 crash, then you should believe that we are supposed to reach the bottom anytime soon and from there will slowly continue the uptrend. If that happens, there's nothing to worry about as it would be a good opportunity to buy coins at cheap price. I've allocated my funds for this.

[podyx]

At this point we pretty much have a guarantee to drop down to the 30-60 USD range within 2 months.
The worst thing, it's also pretty much certain there will be no return up.

Why do you guys even think bitcoin will recover?
The media destroyed it, bubble pops, everybody is looking for the new virtual currency that 'solves the many problems with bitcoin', and ripple and litecoin are often named (not that that makes any sense...).

It doesn't matter what a small community like ours wants or thinks, media declared bitcoin pretty much dead, i expect to see single digits soon.

I was very optimistic long-term too, but i think the confidence is too damaged now because of the media hype and panic sells.

Honestly i hope i'm completely wrong about it...!

[podyx]

At this point we pretty much have a guarantee to drop down to the 30-60 USD range within 2 months.
The worst thing, it's also pretty much certain there will be no return up.

I'm convinced it will be somewhere between $5-$10 by the end of the year, sure we're gonna have some big panic sells over the coming months, lots of people that desperately need some (be it at huge losses) money for summer vacations and then after for the holidays.

Basicaly we'll be dropping hard till the end of August.
We'll see a small rise back from Sept-Nov.
Somewhere in November people will start massive dumps again to get money out for Santa n stuff, crashing the price completely, causing more panic and loss of trust than we've ever seen before.

Gotta love these fools who been around since 2010 and supposed to be chillin on a $10 mio yacht in bahamas or something but in actuality, they somehow lost money.

Can't blame them though, I'd be pissed as fuck too if I were in their position.

[manselr]

I think essentially a huge part of it was a mispricing of risk. High-risk assets were being priced like low-risk assets. A+ ratings were given to assets that were a high B, at best. The idea was that if you bundled enough crap together into one big lot, the level of collective risk was reduced. Of course, when the entire housing market collapsed, it didn't matter that the assets were diversified, because essentially all housing went down in value.

[knight22]

At this point we pretty much have a guarantee to drop down to the 30-60 USD range within 2 months.
The worst thing, it's also pretty much certain there will be no return up.

Why do you guys even think bitcoin will recover?
The media destroyed it, bubble pops, everybody is looking for the new virtual currency that 'solves the many problems with bitcoin', and ripple and litecoin are often named (not that that makes any sense...).

It doesn't matter what a small community like ours wants or thinks, media declared bitcoin pretty much dead, i expect to see single digits soon.

I was very optimistic long-term too, but i think the confidence is too damaged now because of the media hype and panic sells.

Honestly i hope i'm completely wrong about it...!

lol the media have destroyed bitcoin since 2010. Does that mean anything?

[r34tr783tr78]

You seem very confident. That's a bold step, shorting now. Well, the thing is: If everyone expects Bitcoin to go lower, it sometimes has the tendency to just do the opposite. I guess we'll have to wait and see how this plays out!

One would have to be crazy to trade bitcoin with any certainty. I never traded something as hard as bitcoin. No, I have a tight stop.

The point is more or less that: many bitcoiners are currently bullish, singing "to da moon", but, perhaps, the party is already over or they are obliviously listening to the last music and having the last dance. And someone will have to pay the bill or clean the dishes. Or, maybe, do both things.

[Melbustus]

How similar is this Crash to the 2011 one?

Judge by yourself:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=926458.msg10171225#msg10171225

Wow!!! That looks really really convincing! I know, we tend to see patterns everywhere, yet this at least calls for the effect of a self-fulfilling prophecy! You're registered since 2012, right? Have you experienced BTC in 2011 already? Does it feel similar?

I know you were addressing someone else, but....it feels similar in some ways. Certainly the sentiment on this forum and in the media is as absurdly bad. But now there's a robust Bitcoin ecosystem, and other places where Bitcoin is discussed (twitter, reddit, zapchain). The mood in these other places is much better than here. No one likes the price crash, or course, but the people actually working to advance the Bitcoin ecosystem every day have more of a long-term attitude. They're the ones who see the advancement and really understand the tech, ideas, and potential, so the price is something of a sideshow.

BTW, this bear market has indeed been longer than 2011, and it's looking like it'll be longer to regain the ATH (it was 20 months after the June 2011 high). But what was scary about 2011 that doesn't exist now, in my opinion, was the existential threat. There's a robust ecosystem of bitcoin companies, investors, users, holders, etc, now; by comparison, there was basically nothing in 2011. It did seem like people might just forget about cryptocurrency for a number of years at that point. Hence the 94% drop: only those of us who had really mentally dug in for the long haul held (or bought more).

By contrast, this bear market could certainly result in a slog through an extended period of depressed prices, but ecosystem activity will continue to be robust for years. So despite the fact that this bear market has been longer (which is expected with more players and more money driving the corresponding boom phase), it's considerably less worrisome.

 

[yefi]

Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here.

Yet amazingly, China is only running 152 full nodes at this moment. See here: https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

[Brewins]

Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here.

Yet amazingly, China is only running 152 full nodes at this moment. See here: https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

some full nodes run over proxy. Numbers might not be accurate

[yefi]

Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here.

Yet amazingly, China is only running 152 full nodes at this moment. See here: https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

some full nodes run over proxy. Numbers might not be accurate

True, but it would have to affect China to a vastly disproportionate degree to put it beside America.

[HarmonLi]

Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here.

Yet amazingly, China is only running 152 full nodes at this moment. See here: https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

But if they're mainly trading the coins, why would they need to run that many full nodes? There's almost no incentive for a trader to run a full node!? They are just in Bitcoin for the trading aspects.

[yefi]

Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here.

Yet amazingly, China is only running 152 full nodes at this moment. See here: https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

But if they're mainly trading the coins, why would they need to run that many full nodes? There's almost no incentive for a trader to run a full node!? They are just in Bitcoin for the trading aspects.

Why would the Chinese trade but not participate. Other countries do not exhibit this peculiarity.

[gentlemand]

Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here.

Yet amazingly, China is only running 152 full nodes at this moment. See here: https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

But if they're mainly trading the coins, why would they need to run that many full nodes? There's almost no incentive for a trader to run a full node!? They are just in Bitcoin for the trading aspects.

Why would the Chinese trade but not participate. Other countries do not exhibit this peculiarity.

Their government hasn't made friendly noises and any attempts to make it actually useful have been squashed. There's zero merchant use there so why invest in altruistic infrastructure? They trade the coin itself and that's it.

[yefi]

Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here.

Yet amazingly, China is only running 152 full nodes at this moment. See here: https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

But if they're mainly trading the coins, why would they need to run that many full nodes? There's almost no incentive for a trader to run a full node!? They are just in Bitcoin for the trading aspects.

Why would the Chinese trade but not participate. Other countries do not exhibit this peculiarity.

Their government hasn't made friendly noises and any attempts to make it actually useful have been squashed. There's zero merchant use there so why invest in altruistic infrastructure? They trade the coin itself and that's it.

Russia has a government making more unfriendly noises, has a population one ninth of China's, yet runs twice as many nodes.

[jaberwock]

Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here.

Yet amazingly, China is only running 152 full nodes at this moment. See here: https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

But if they're mainly trading the coins, why would they need to run that many full nodes? There's almost no incentive for a trader to run a full node!? They are just in Bitcoin for the trading aspects.

Why would the Chinese trade but not participate. Other countries do not exhibit this peculiarity.

Their government hasn't made friendly noises and any attempts to make it actually useful have been squashed. There's zero merchant use there so why invest in altruistic infrastructure? They trade the coin itself and that's it.

Russia has a government making more unfriendly noises, has a population one ninth of China's, yet runs twice as many nodes.

you never really know how many people are running nodes from CHina, because they might be under proxies.

Russia at least has no great firewall