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Author Topic: EUR might drop below USD  (Read 33281 times)
Josepht
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January 26, 2015, 03:11:15 PM
 #21

About Greece leaving the EU:

They won't.
When the EU was made, the decision was made that countries would not be able to kick other countries out. Even if every country want to kick Greece out, they can't.
The only option is that Greece decides that it may be wise for them to leave the EU. This won't happen, because the EU keeps giving free money to Greece.
As a European citizen, I can only watch the EU giving Greece my money, which I will never see back.

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January 26, 2015, 03:54:39 PM
 #22

For now the stock market hasnt got any relevant reaction towards the new greek government, we'll see in the couple of weeks tho...
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January 26, 2015, 05:41:24 PM
 #23

True. It depends on the way the new Greek governement wants to play the game.
Dread Pirate Roberts
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January 26, 2015, 08:24:09 PM
 #24

i think thats really impossible to get EUR under USD
tyrexs
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January 27, 2015, 01:21:10 AM
 #25

i think thats really impossible to get EUR under USD

why? just wait and see, eur under usd this year Wink

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January 27, 2015, 09:41:42 AM
 #26

i think thats really impossible to get EUR under USD

Not really. Also, the US economy is going to grow more than the European one this year, partly due to falling crude prices. That will take a lot of pressure off the USD.


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manselr
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January 27, 2015, 02:44:07 PM
 #27

EUR is DONE. It will start with greece and continue with spain. They can kick greece but not spain, too powerful, so they will default.

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Valta Crypto
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January 27, 2015, 06:26:08 PM
 #28

"The Euro is Like Hotel California For Greece’s Varoufakis"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-27/greece-s-new-finance-minister-says-euro-is-like-hotel-california.html

"Why Fink Says Swiss Avoiding Recession May Be Bad News for Euro"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-27/why-larry-fink-fears-swiss-will-avoid-recession-after-franc-jump.html
donguan
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January 27, 2015, 07:43:32 PM
 #29

The EUR is going down and the USD is going up up
oblivi
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January 28, 2015, 07:04:01 PM
 #30

Perhaps you learn from this unjustified devastation of the Greeks, and before the next policy presumed uncertainty of a country, it would be more than justified European markets were coordinated with the monetary authority of the ECB and suspend interim and temporarily trading debt of a country and the prices of essential services and supplies.
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January 28, 2015, 08:40:05 PM
 #31

Let's be honest: the Greek government lied and falsified their public accounts for many years. It was the only way to get into the eurozone at the time.
Since they cannot devaluate their money anymore the situation is hopeless.
In another few months Greece will run out of money. Maybe quicker if we believe the rumors about the pension funds that are almost empty.
The new government will only speed up this process because no European country (or IMF) will give them money they will never pay back.

The only solution left for Greece is defaulting.

This means that on a Friday evening banks will close in Greece and on monday they will re-open with everybody's money changed into another currency (worth 50-80% less).
This is a Cyprus but 10 times bigger. In Greece the amount of money being cashed from banks runs into millions of Euro's every DAY.

Don't need to remind anybody what happened to bitcoin with the crisis in Cyprus.
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January 30, 2015, 08:16:16 AM
 #32

EUR/USD=1.00 in 2015. IMHO
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January 30, 2015, 09:22:45 AM
 #33

EUR/USD=1.00 in 2015. IMHO
No, financial forecasts are consistent. Dollar will soon reach higher price. It will be more like 1.3 EURO = 1 USD soon. Just wait and see. It is good time to buy some $$ now.


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January 30, 2015, 01:45:34 PM
 #34

EUR/USD=1.00 in 2015. IMHO
No, financial forecasts are consistent. Dollar will soon reach higher price. It will be more like 1.3 EURO = 1 USD soon. Just wait and see. It is good time to buy some $$ now.

First wait and let it climb to parity
Valta Crypto
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January 30, 2015, 02:56:43 PM
 #35


Euro-Area Prices Slide at Rate Last Seen in 2009

"Sinking prices combined with stubbornly high unemployment led the European Central Bank president to announce a 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) stimulus plan last week that centered on government-bond purchases. Even though the size of the program exceeded economists’ forecasts, it’s still unclear whether it will be enough to return inflation to the Frankfurt-based central bank’s goal of just under 2 percent."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/euro-area-prices-extend-slide-in-sign-ecb-late-to-deflation-game
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January 30, 2015, 05:41:01 PM
 #36

Yup we aiming dollar parity because Tsirisas its challenging the european status quo, which will result on greece outside euro probably and big bailouts.
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January 30, 2015, 07:05:57 PM
 #37

If Greece leaves the Euro zone, that would make the Euro stronger, and that may happen.
Syryza or however its written just smashed the elections and won by big majority, things are going to get really really interesting. These guys dont want to be buttfucked by Merkel, but they are delusional if they think they can stop the Troika.

Syryza do not reach the absolute majority for two seats...
i think Syryza will be innoque like Holland and Renzi.
after all, the European markets were not affected by
Syryza win!
If Syryza were really dangerous all the europe stock exchange, on Monday, would open with heavy losses!!!

but it was not so!!!!
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February 01, 2015, 01:56:30 AM
 #38

Competitive devaluation will continue to occur.
If the EUR weakens against other currencies, other countries will start devaluing their currencies as well.
Then one day, people would get tired and switch to Bitcoin.  Smiley
worldinacoin
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February 01, 2015, 02:02:51 AM
 #39

With all the QEs and with the USA economy getting stronger, it will not be surprising if the Euro drop below parity
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February 01, 2015, 03:00:06 AM
 #40

No one can throw out Greece from the € zone.
At most they could prevent the central Bank of Greece to have any say on the ECB board.
But no one can prevent the Greece and the greeks from using € inside Greece.

The problem is, the greeks have already moved their money from banks in Greece to accounts in other places like Germany, safe from forced conversion.
Without the ECB giving Greece printed notes and fresh cash, the banks would run out of cash and would have an empty balance pretty fast.

If the Tsipras government stop paying the debts and no agreement is reached with the debtors, it is probable the banks (the Greece's banks first of all) will be the first victims. They have bought a lot of the government's bonds and a lot is in the balance of the Greece Central Bank. So, if the government stop paying, many banks in Greece will be unable to survive and literaly all their accounts will be wiped out (like in Cyprus).

The problem is, then, for other governments in the EU. They are on the hook for a lot of money. Italy, for example, is on the hook for 40 billions (at least, maybe more) if Greece stop paying. This is around 650 €/inhabitants (newborns included). This would go to increase the already large government debt of Italy. It would not be pretty for France or Germany too. They are less indebted than Italy, but not so far back. Italy account for all its government debts where Germany accounts just for a part (some is unaccounted and ont he balance sheet of other entities, but the German government is the one responsable to pay these bills).

Many banks in the Euro Area (and outside) will have their balance sheets devastated and some will not survive. Surely credit will dry even more than now.

All of this is driving a bubble in Germany and some other countries some people see as "safe heavens". People moving their savings from the periphery of the EU to the center make, for a time, the center appear more prosperous and solid than it is in reality. The low interest rate there is fueling a real estate bubble and damaging the return of retirement funds. This is the reason deflation is good and needed, the prices need to fall to compensate for the low/sero interest rates.

In the end, Germany is a lot more healthy than Greece because it reformed its economy fitteen years ago and it was not pretty at the time. Greece didn't, Italy tried and failed miserably, France was trying to play "buddy" with Germany and Germany allowed them to think politics trump economics. But northern economies can not play with money printing and bad loans without risking a lot. It is cold there, like in Finland. And if you destroy your economy because of high taxes and bad loans to profligate spenders when winter come you have no money to heat your home and buy your food.

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