New diff thread Jan 27th to Feb 11 (-5.73%) to (+0.09%)

[SunnyIgor]

I have changed the wording on duplicates. Basically it means you should try to make your guesses unique, I'll do my best to warn if there is a duplicate, and if duplicates remain in the final list then only the first one will be considered for the win. As it stands now:

philipma1957 - 2.82%
SimplisticStu -3.58%
railzand  -3.00%
mavericklm 0.00%
BTCish -2.00% (because -3.00% is already taken; if you prefer that number please adjust your guess to -3.01 or -2.99 or similar)
klondike_bar ineligible so far because 0.00% is already taken.

I'll try to review this daily, hopefully the list won't balloon to unmanageable size, it's only BTC0.1

- 1.24 %

-3,2

[philipma1957]

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   340857
Total BTC   13.771M
 
Difficulty   41272873895
Estimated   42079763853 in 1863 blks   (+1.95%)
 
Network total   345559.140 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.02 / 513 ------------------------------ this is + 15% trend number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,813,974,118 (-3.53%)
Adjust time:   After 1863 Blocks, About 12.9 days
Hashrate(?):   296,513,562 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes  -------------------- this is a (+0.33%) trend number
Updated:   

[wpt1wpt1]

I say +3.2%

[stonerider]

Looks like the hashrate is going up, right after diff decreased. I'd say we'll be looking at 0.1% increasse by Feb 11th.

[davejh]

My guess is that we're still trending upwards. I'm going with probably the most extreme early estimate here at +5.5% 

[tsm13]

gonna go with a decrease based on the bitfury news in finland but not as drastic as some:

-2.24%

[mmeijeri]

What's the Bitfury news in Finland? I heard about their plans to buy Allied Control, but nothing specifically about Finland.

[tsm13]

http://www.hs.fi/talous/a1422251682035

Bye Bye Finnish Bit Fury mine

[philipma1957]

http://www.hs.fi/talous/a1422251682035

Bye Bye Finnish Bit Fury mine

translation?

[tsm13]

google translate, but this is the bit under the pic with the forklift

Despite the risks, bitcoin has started to creep towards the mainstream. One example is the Dalsbruk arrived Bitfury, which has received capital from investors $ 40 million.

Bitfury manufactures Bitcoin designed for computers that "extract" the virtual currency. The extraction of computers to ensure a reliable moving of Bitcoin wallet to another and will reward the efforts of new Bitcoin.

Bitcoin way Bitfuryllä is somewhat dubious reputation. The Wall Street Journal reported in the summer, that one of the founders of the company was previously included in the Ukrainian kind of file-sharing service, which ended up with the US authorities blacklisted.

Dalsbruk few people know what is happening inside the fences. Niko Punin is currently working in Spain Bitfuryn the service, but he is silent center.

Plans have been in any case, great. The estate had to be sold in the entire factory area server center. Electricity would have to run so much that the old factory electrical transformer might have had to replace a larger one.

The Purchase Plan has been blocked, and the center is run down. Together with the hall workers unload racks, and gray computers waiting for transport.

One reason for the downfall of is the fact that mining is no longer as profitable as in the past. Server technology is aging up to a few months and the value of the currency has fallen currencies in the peak-to-quarter.

The traditional industry has its benefits: metal manufacturing remained Dalsbruk three centuries, bitcoin factory only days of the year.

--
Riskeistä huolimatta bitcoin on alkanut hiipiä kohti valtavirtaa. Yksi esimerkki on Taalintehtaalle saapunut Bitfury, joka on saanut pääomasijoittajilta 40 miljoonaa dollaria.

Bitfury valmistaa bitcoinia varten suunniteltuja tietokoneita, jotka "louhivat" virtuaalivaluuttaa. Louhinnassa tietokoneet varmistavat bitcoinien luotettavan siirtelyn lompakosta toiseen ja saavat palkkioksi vaivannäöstä uusia bitcoineja.

Bitcoinin tapaan Bitfuryllä on hieman arveluttava maine. Wall Street Journal kertoi kesällä, että yksi yhtiön perustajista oli aiemmin mukana ukrainalaisessa tiedostonjakopalvelussa, joka päätyi Yhdysvaltain viranomaisten mustalle listalle.

Taalintehtaalla harva tietää, mitä aitojen sisäpuolella tapahtuu. Niko Punin työskentelee tätä nykyä Espanjassa Bitfuryn palveluksessa, mutta hän on keskuksesta vaitonainen.

Suunnitelmat ovat olleet joka tapauksessa suuret. Konkurssipesän oli määrä myydä koko tehdasalue palvelinkeskukseksi. Sähköä olisi voinut kulua niin paljon, että tehtaan vanha sähkömuuntaja olisi ehkä jouduttu vaihtamaan suurempaan.

Ostosuunnitelma on kuitenkin kaatunut, ja keskusta ajetaan alas. Yhdessä hallissa työntekijät purkavat telineitä, ja harmaat tietokoneet odottavat kuljetusta.

Yksi syy alasajoon lienee se, että louhinta ei ole enää yhtä kannattavaa kuin aiemmin. Palvelinten tekniikka vanhenee jopa muutamissa kuukausissa, ja valuutan arvo on laskenut toissa vuoden huipusta neljäsosaan.

Perinteisessä teollisuudessa on puolensa: metallinvalmistus pysyi Taalintehtaalla kolme vuosisataa, bitcoin-tehdas vain vuoden päivät.

[philipma1957]

Thanks .  Well a  delay for bitfury the  ramp up sounds very good to me.  A Top rated company by some  a not well like company by others.

Every day diff is under 50 and coins are over 225.00 is good for me.

Wait to see if this is true .  It may be why the diff dropped 6% last adjustment.

[notlist3d]

Thanks .  Well a  delay for bitfury the  ramp up sounds very good to me.  A Top rated company by some  a not well like company by others.

Every day diff is under 50 and coins are over 225.00 is good for me.

Wait to see if this is true .  It may be why the diff dropped 6% last adjustment.

I agree it's good if it all comes out to be true.

I still am waiting I think we have a lot of 1T gear (Dragons, etc). That should be going offline. 

[philipma1957]

Thanks .  Well a  delay for bitfury the  ramp up sounds very good to me.  A Top rated company by some  a not well like company by others.

Every day diff is under 50 and coins are over 225.00 is good for me.

Wait to see if this is true .  It may be why the diff dropped 6% last adjustment.

I agree it's good if it all comes out to be true.

I still am waiting I think we have a lot of 1T gear (Dragons, etc). That should be going offline. 

this is why I am hoping for price to drift down slightly .  I want all 1 watt gear and even .8 watt gear to bail.

An s-3 doing 400  watts and 500 gh  at 12 cents earns 5 bucks a month with the price at 221 usd

it goes in the red if price drops to 193.00.

also sp20 owners that are cranking at 1500 gh will drop hash down to 1200 gh if price hovers near 200.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,136,348,642 (-2.75%)
Adjust time:    After 1684 Blocks, About 11.7 days

It's at least a slow move upwards.   Negative might be possible.  Hard to say with 11 days left.

[mavericklm]

It's at least a slow move upwards

look at the graph!

[philipma1957]

It's at least a slow move upwards

look at the graph!

the graph is bad http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   341041
Total BTC   13.776M
 
Difficulty   41272873895
Estimated   42451496807 in 1679 blks
 
Network total   376099.749 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.64 / 471 s  -------------- very high number.


http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png

 this chart shows us back to   325 hash rate.

this means someone (bitfury?)  could have turned off 50ph last adjustment to create a 6% drop and now has turned it back on since the diff will stay low for 11 -12 days.

A big player owning marginal  1 watt gear may do this for the next few jumps.  If my 1 watt gear loses money at a diff of 45 and I shut it off dropping diff to 41.  then power on I get a 11-13 day profit zone.

Many people have talked about this for years I never saw a good  reason to do it.  Now the reasons and conditions exist.

 They will continue to exist until  that big player or players :

A) replaces all his/their 1 watt gear.
 B) the btc price -- diff ratio shifts a lot.
 C)  many others keep buying the newer .5 watt gear making it impossible for the clap on clap off method for big player or players.


This pattern could set up again when the s-3's get in that clap on clap off area of earnings.

If you are ahead of the curve-------------all .5 watt per gh gear  and/or 2 cent power this is okay you will earn some btc over power cost.

[suchmoon]

As it stands now:

philipma1957 - 2.82%
SimplisticStu -3.58%
railzand  -3.00%
BTCish -2.00% (because -3.00% is already taken; if you prefer that number please adjust your guess to -3.01 or -2.99 or similar)
klondike_bar +0.00%
mavericklm -0.01%
notlist3d -2.50%
tarmi -1.24%
Kexkey -0.27%
SunnyIgor -3.20%
wpt1wpt1 +3.20%
stonerider +0.10%
davejh +5.50%
tsm13 -2.24%

I have a feeling there will be a lot of revisions to the + side

[philipma1957]

As it stands now:

philipma1957 - 2.82%
SimplisticStu -3.58%
railzand  -3.00%
BTCish -2.00% (because -3.00% is already taken; if you prefer that number please adjust your guess to -3.01 or -2.99 or similar)
klondike_bar +0.00%
mavericklm -0.01%
notlist3d -2.50%
tarmi -1.24%
Kexkey -0.27%
SunnyIgor -3.20%
wpt1wpt1 +3.20%
stonerider +0.10%
davejh +5.50%
tsm13 -2.24%

I have a feeling there will be a lot of revisions to the + side

    yeah looks to be +1 or more, but if someone is flipping a switch on and off.

    The feb 25 adjustment will drop again.

 We may have reached this point with gear like bitfury's BF4500

http://aryadutaminer.com/search?tag=LIMITED%20SALE%2030pcs%20Bitfury%20BF4500%204.5TH/s%20buy%20in

[davejh]

this means someone (bitfury?)  could have turned off 50ph last adjustment to create a 6% drop and now has turned it back on since the diff will stay low for 11 -12 days.

Much more likely is that this was variance; +/-6% differences due to variance are surprisingly likely: http://hashingit.com/analysis/28-reach-for-the-ear-defenders

If I get a spare few hours over the next week I'll actually calculate the PDFs/CDFs for the spectrum of variance percentages.

Today's large spike is well within the norms for a 24 hour variance. In fact if you look at the last 2 years of daily hash rates on a log scale then it's pretty clear that there's nothing particularly unusual about what's been happening recently. There have been many similar runs of good and bad luck in the past: https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

The recent changes look much more erratic because they're referenced to a baseline of closer to 2% as opposed to ones that were references to perhaps 15%.

[railzand]

I much prefer a good conspiracy theory. Does certainly feel like the big boys toying with the diff.

Or perhaps someone bought a load of these 100ghs stick miners:

http://aryadutaminer.com/cheap-the-bh-miner-usb-bitcoin-100ghs-sha26-miner-and-free-shipping.html

seriously that site looks so dodgy

while hashingit.com is brill.