New diff thread Jan 27th to Feb 11 (-5.73%) to (+0.09%)

[klondike_bar]

Just to remind you and everyone else - deadline for the bounty is Sunday, Feb 1st 16:00 UTC (about 22 hours from the time of this post).
As of now:

klondike_bar +0.00%

change me to +1.55%

[notlist3d]

And bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    42,140,627,202 (+2.10%)
Adjust time:    After 1297 Blocks, About 8.5 days

Moving up and up.

[philipma1957]

And bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    42,140,627,202 (+2.10%)
Adjust time:    After 1297 Blocks, About 8.5 days

Moving up and up.

BTC/USD: $212.101

I want that to drop to $180.00 for about 5 days. That would shake out a lot of miners.

Or it could jump up to $360 and I will sell off some coins.

[mavericklm]

same here, same here!
but going above 300, i just don't see it to be soon, more like weeks... or months
i see more under 200 than 300, maybe even 150

and the diff is going upppppp atm

[skuser]

hashrate looks ugly currently, seems like difficulty will return to previous level...

[tss]

i'm going to say + 4.8%

[philipma1957]

I was unable to connect to the site for the last 4 or 5 hours I missed the deadline for the change.  I am going to put in +4.09% if I am allowed the change.  If not that is okay.


So new number = (+4.09%)                  thanks

[alh]

This going to be interesting to watch. Depending on how you like to calculate percentages, Phillip either made a change of some 6-7%, or a 300+% swing in his thinking based on his original estimate.

Not to pick on Phillip, just that he's the "owner" of this as it were.

[suchmoon]

I know those two last attempts were a little bit past the deadline but I'm going to count them in because the site was down for quite a while. Next time I'm going to include some verbiage in the rules to make it fair for everyone. So here is the final list:

railzand  -3.00%
BTCish -2.00%
mavericklm -0.01%
notlist3d -2.50%
tarmi -1.24%
Kexkey -0.27%
SunnyIgor -3.20%
wpt1wpt1 +3.20%
stonerider +0.10%
davejh +5.50%
tsm13 -2.24%
alh +1.95%
skuser +2.00%
SimplisticStu +0.75%
buyandhold +5.99%
armedmilitia +3.00%
klondike_bar +1.55%
tss +4.80%
philipma1957 +4.09%

Let me know if I missed anything. No more entries will be eligible for the bounty, but please don't stop estimating/speculating/guessing.

I'd say +5% this time around. but a decrease next time if BTC stays below $250.

[notlist3d]

Were definitely gaining this week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    42,951,266,410 (+4.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1164 Blocks, About 7.5 days

[philipma1957]

Were definitely gaining this week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    42,951,266,410 (+4.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1164 Blocks, About 7.5 days

 found a nice chart  144 = 0%


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Jan 28 --------163           Jan 13 ------- 124
Jan 29 --------165           Jan 14 ------- 152
Jan 30 --------142           Jan 15 ------- 141
Jan 31 --------162           Jan 16 ------- 145
Feb  1 -------  156           Jan 17 ------- 136
Feb 2 --------                  Jan 18 ------- 157
Feb 3 --------                  Jan 19 ------- 141
Feb 4 --------                  Jan 20 ------- 122
Feb 5 --------                  Jan 21 ------- 146
Feb 6 --------                  Jan 22 ------- 138
Feb 7 --------                  Jan 23 ------- 121
Feb 8 --------                  Jan 24 ------- 129
Feb 9 --------                  Jan 25 ------- 124
Feb 10 -------                  Jan 26 ------- 129

As you can see every day has been over 144 but Jan31st

 Last adjustment 4  days over 144  10 under

[tss]

I was unable to connect to the site for the last 4 or 5 hours I missed the deadline for the change.  I am going to put in +4.09% if I am allowed the change.  If not that is okay.


So new number = (+4.09%)                  thanks

thank you phillip for making your change after my guesstimate.  i guess that pushed my entry in :-)  but yes i was also some having issues while viewing and posting replies.

[philipma1957]

Site went down for most of us it not all of us yesterday.

http://www.isitdownrightnow.com/bitcointalk.org.html  

 blue bars = up

white = down

that site can be used for most other websites.

 So  contest  deadline was extended here to fix the issue.

  Thanks suchmoon

[seriouscoin]

Oh HAI,

with your track recording, i'm not surprised at all at your " guesstimate"

In fact, my data shows, whenever philipma predict the difficulty, i will just bet the opposite.

I think you should jump start and predict the next difficulty 18 days from now.

[philipma1957]

Oh HAI,

with your track recording, i'm not surprised at all at your " guesstimate"

In fact, my data shows, whenever philipma predict the difficulty, i will just bet the opposite.

I think you should jump start and predict the next difficulty 18 days from now.

thanks for the vote of confidence.

 okay (- 1.11%)  next jump which runs from feb 10 to feb 25 give or take a day or so.

  I don't mind the smackdown talk mr. seriousC as long as it is not full of crude curses.  

[philipma1957]

Were definitely gaining this week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    42,951,266,410 (+4.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1164 Blocks, About 7.5 days

 found a nice chart  144 = 0%


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Jan 28 --------163           Jan 13 ------- 124
Jan 29 --------165           Jan 14 ------- 152
Jan 30 --------142           Jan 15 ------- 141
Jan 31 --------162           Jan 16 ------- 145
Feb  1 -------  156           Jan 17 ------- 136
Feb 2 --------  154           Jan 18 ------- 157
Feb 3 --------  133           Jan 19 ------- 141
Feb 4 -------- 158           Jan 20 ------- 122
Feb 5 --------                  Jan 21 ------- 146
Feb 6 --------                  Jan 22 ------- 138
Feb 7 --------                  Jan 23 ------- 121
Feb 8 --------                  Jan 24 ------- 129
Feb 9 --------                  Jan 25 ------- 124
Feb 10 -------                  Jan 26 ------- 129

As you can see every day has been over 144 but Jan31st

 Last adjustment 4  days over 144  10 under

note blocks made on feb 3  nice drop.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

back up on the 4th

[notlist3d]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    42,925,287,720 (+4.00%)
Adjust time:    After 818 Blocks, About 5.3 days

All considered not really to bad.  With neg 6 the week before still a good mining season really.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    42,925,287,720 (+4.00%)
Adjust time:    After 818 Blocks, About 5.3 days

All considered not really to bad.  With neg 6 the week before still a good mining season really.

it is dropping a bit  it may go down a little more.

[armedmilitia]

Hmm, what happens if the difficulty ends up on the midpoint between two guesses? If it's rounded to 2 decimal places, it seems like it could be possible this occurs.

You know, we gotta get this legalese worked out.

[suchmoon]

Hmm, what happens if the difficulty ends up on the midpoint between two guesses? If it's rounded to 2 decimal places, it seems like it could be possible this occurs.

You know, we gotta get this legalese worked out.

Good point. The probability is very slim but I will add something to the rules for next round.