Challenge: What's the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC?

[dooglus]

I'd love an explanation of why it tops out at 0.496522222!

It turns out that number doesn't end with recurring 2's, but is in fact:

>>> 1 - 2**-0.99
0.49652222497164056

I calculated it using L'Hôpital's rule, which I vaguely remember learning about in high school.

[Xenoph0bia]

I think its possible but at the same time it is little difficult too. I believe that the best way to earn 1 btc is sports betting only If you have good knowledge about sports and if you are able to predict the result. So as per me you can take a chance with sports betting as there are many chances to make some good profit.
Avoid the other ways of gambling where you can loose the money.

Agreed with you that it is possible but at the same time its difficult too. People can loose the money while trying to earn one btc in gambling, they should follow some techniques and other strategies to minimize the loss or else they will loose their 1 btc instead of earning 1 btc.

[knowhow]

On the begining for sure bet 1 btc worthing 1 dollars weren nothing nowadays is worthing 250dollars soo why the hell i should try with 1 btc to double since i know and most of us know that the lucky usually stays with the owner of the project being casino,dice or any other way.

[Coef]

Are you able to beat 49.6522222%, or do you think that is a hard limit?

After going through post #198 carefully, I agree the number 1 - 2**-0.99 you get should be the limit under perfect conditions (the bet size and multiplier can always be set to make the balance after winning a bet to be exactly 2 btc). Under actual conditions (bet size cannot contain a fraction of satoshi, bet win chance % can only contain 2 decimal place) it cannot be done and so the "best" way would be slightly lower than that.

BTW, I have not heard of the word "L'Hopital's rule" for like a decade lol.

My recent post shows strategies that give a 49.6522222% percent chance of winning, so your post (which came after) doesn't beat mine.

As mentioned in the OP, the betting sequence has to be well-defined and subject to the constraints of a dice site such as Bitdice or PRC. IMHO, the numbers you get in that post does not seem to qualify.

I notice the word "them" in the quote. Do I get 0.1 btc for beating dooglus' solution?

Damn it. Guess that serves me right for trying to use gender-neutral pronouns. What's your MP or BaB username?

(Give me a day or two to verify the solution, and after this, no more prize money will be given out   )

Received the 0.1 btc. Thanks Ryan.

[leex1528]

Doog, how did you learn all of this?  I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds.  Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what?  Any thoughts?

[knowhow]

You can do all calculations but only one thing will allow to earn 1 btc playing with 1 btc that is lucky the 49% means nothing besides you can loose as win anytime.

[hua_hui]

Doog, how did you learn all of this?  I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds.  Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what?  Any thoughts?

well it is actually quite simple mathematical calculation. you can start using it when you learn probability with tree diagram. but instead of picking 2 or 3 people or throwing 2/3 dice, the same occuring series can be applied to larger number of trials.

on higher level(my country use terms diff from you so i may use the wrong term) in pre-u school, you can learn even how to estimate your probability by approximating the binominal distribute to other form of distribute that allow more easy of calculation.

And to be honest, this is the first time i ever encountered after learning L'Hôpital's rule in uni. lol. finally what i learn got some use to it!

[Rammus]

Doog, how did you learn all of this?  I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds.  Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what?  Any thoughts?

I`m pretty sure it comes from either majoring in math..

That alone or picking up and building the dice itself and studying the game which lead to his site? who knows lol.

[hua_hui]

Doog, how did you learn all of this?  I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds.  Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what?  Any thoughts?

I`m pretty sure it comes from either majoring in math..

That alone or picking up and building the dice itself and studying the game which lead to his site? who knows lol.

for my country(in asia), probability is learn at y7 to y10, where you need to learn how to calculate when you throw up to 3 dices or pick 3 balls. of course, for good sch, they have to learn on how to calculate for n throws where n can be large. for advance y11 to y12, we learn for large n, what probability for specific k times of winning. but i believe dooglus even learn up to university standard as he mention that he know about L'Hôpital's rule which is only taught when your major has things to do with math where you have to look at the big picture.

[Aemon]

So basically you are saying that strategy is good and the best thing you can use no matter what?  No matter the amount of large rolls you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?

[ndnh]

...you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?

Not really. If you are concerned about increasing your EV and beating the edge, you shouldn't play. Whichever strategy you pick, you can only minimize the impact of house edge on your EV.

Maximize impact of HE on EV : bet at 98% win chance.
Minimize impact of house edge : follow the winning strategies of Dooglus and the other winner.
Nullify impact of house edge : Don't play.
Beat the house edge : Not possible.

[hua_hui]

So basically you are saying that strategy is good and the best thing you can use no matter what?  No matter the amount of large rolls you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?

nope, what we are trying to show u is that no matter how many different stragety we can come out with, the chance of getting it right is always less than 50%. so in another words, it is more likely you lost it all than to gain. so best is dont bet.

[jackg]

You could possibly try pokarautomatics or carbon7 for this. You will get 2btc in around 5 weeks from a 1btc investment! There is less risk to this than bitcoin mining. They apparently use automated "bots" to basicallymine from gambling pokar sites to gain money/bitcoin.

[Coef]

You could possibly try pokarautomatics or carbon7 for this. You will get 2btc in around 5 weeks from a 1btc investment! There is less risk to this than bitcoin mining. They apparently use automated "bots" to basicallymine from gambling pokar sites to gain money/bitcoin.

Those HYIP programs always claim to make "safe" and "guaranteed" profit from forex trading, altcoin trading, bitcoin mining, new IT business, asset management, etc but in fact they don't. They are just ponzis and use deposits from "investors" to pay earlier "investors". IMHO, it is a lot riskier to send your money to these scheme than to gamble on some trusted provably fair gambling site.

So basically you are saying that strategy is good and the best thing you can use no matter what?  No matter the amount of large rolls you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?

IMHO, one thing can be learned from this thread: In terms of probability of reaching your profit target in dice (or any other luck based games with negative EV), some ways of playing are better but no strategy can give players a positive EV.
If your only target is to maximize your EV, you should not gamble in the first place. Instead, you should be the house or invest in the bankroll if you trust the site.

[Kevin77]

Yes. HYIP programs are always a ponzi. It's just to eat your investments.
Doubler may give you 1BTC on day one but that too not sure after many such a sites turn scams from day one too.
May be forex trading may give you 100% profit in 15 days time period.

[futurebit640]

Yes. HYIP programs are always a ponzi. It's just to eat your investments.
Doubler may give you 1BTC on day one but that too not sure after many such a sites turn scams from day one too.
May be forex trading may give you 100% profit in 15 days time period.

Do ever believe those high yield investment programs. There offers are like double in 24 hours or 10% profits in a day all are unrealistic. They just want to tempt investors and get the deposits afer couple of days or couple of weeks they simple will close the site and come up with another one either with same idea with different name or with different way to cheat people. Do not ever invest even single $ into these sites. 

[jpouza]

If you are an experienced trader, you could win 1 btc with 1 btc for sure, specially with altcoins in the past, now I think BTC only trade is more solid.

[Supercrypt]

If you are an experienced trader, you could win 1 btc with 1 btc for sure, specially with altcoins in the past, now I think BTC only trade is more solid.

Yes. Now a days only btcoin gets more volume compared to any other alt coins. But trading in bitcoin with a predetermined target of 1 bitcoin might not be good idea as the target set will make you over trade and result in unwanted things. Wait for good opportunity and trade only on those.

[Mayanheir]

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

       chance  multiplier      
        1.0664% 92.83570893x    
                  
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065

I have bolded the line "if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit" because I am confused, you say to do a martingale but the second bet should be 0.02177804 not 0.01100759 like you listed, it also doesn't double your other bets in the 64 bet run. If you are doubling your bet using the martingale system and keeping the same chance of winning, it is not possible to have 64 bets.

[BigMac]

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

        chance  multiplier     
        1.0664% 92.83570893x   
                   
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065

I have bolded the line "if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit" because I am confused, you say to do a martingale but the second bet should be 0.02177804 not 0.01100759 like you listed, it also doesn't double your other bets in the 64 bet run. If you are doubling your bet using the martingale system and keeping the same chance of winning, it is not possible to have 64 bets.

He is not doubling the bet, because he is not making x2 bet but x92.8357 bet. At that high multiplier, a small increase in the bet size is enough to have a profit (if the bet wins) big enough to bring total net profit to 1+ btc.