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Author Topic: Challenge: What's the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC?  (Read 15770 times)
philiveyjr
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February 15, 2015, 07:54:56 PM
 #61

tail some good sports betting guy.. I think thats the fastest way..

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February 15, 2015, 09:29:07 PM
 #62

best way to win is take a smaller principal and work your way up. or just take the 1 bet 50% chance.
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February 15, 2015, 10:51:35 PM
 #63

you can try doing at 90% winning x10 times. but you gotta have some sense of patterns.
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February 15, 2015, 11:37:18 PM
 #64

id say just gamble it at primedice and test your luck with a couple pre-rolls before betting.
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February 21, 2015, 01:58:23 AM
Last edit: February 21, 2015, 02:30:07 AM by dooglus
Merited by DarkStar_ (7), suchmoon (4)
 #65

Strategy 1:
You're always playing 9900x using a martingale sequence, i.e. your wager for each round is
Code:
ceiling((2 - PLAYER_BR)/9899,1e-8)
you run out of funds after 6861 bets. You lose all of them with a probability of
Code:
0.9999^6861 = 0.5035187605260536
or put differently you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

Strategy 2:
You're constantly playing 20203 satoshi but increase the payout each round by exactly 1x starting at 4951x which will leave you with 1.00004850 BTC profit. You run out of funds after 4949 games and your last payout will be 9899x. You lose all of them with a probability of
Code:
prod(1-0.99/i, i=4949..9899) = 0.5035283796177312
leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.

I Hope the math is correct  Tongue

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

       chance  multiplier      
        1.0664% 92.83570893x    
                  
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065
 4     0.01124861  0.03302406  1.00000001
 5     0.01137110  0.04427267  1.00000036
 6     0.01149492  0.05564377  1.00000036
 7     0.01162009  0.06713869  1.00000051
 8     0.01174662  0.07875878  1.00000040
 9     0.01187453  0.09050540  1.00000048
10     0.01200383  0.10237993  1.00000031
11     0.01213454  0.11438376  1.00000032
12     0.01226667  0.12651830  1.00000004
13     0.01240025  0.13878497  1.00000078
14     0.01253527  0.15118522  1.00000019
15     0.01267177  0.16372049  1.00000049
16     0.01280975  0.17639226  1.00000021
17     0.01294924  0.18920201  1.00000063
18     0.01309024  0.20215125  1.00000022
19     0.01323278  0.21524149  1.00000024
20     0.01337687  0.22847427  1.00000007
21     0.01352254  0.24185114  1.00000091
22     0.01366978  0.25537368  1.00000026
23     0.01381863  0.26904346  1.00000022
24     0.01396910  0.28286209  1.00000011
25     0.01412121  0.29683119  1.00000014
26     0.01427498  0.31095240  1.00000051
27     0.01443042  0.32522738  1.00000047
28     0.01458755  0.33965780  1.00000020
29     0.01474640  0.35424535  1.00000075
30     0.01490697  0.36899175  1.00000041
31     0.01506929  0.38389872  1.00000021
32     0.01523338  0.39896801  1.00000024
33     0.01539926  0.41420139  1.00000057
34     0.01556694  0.42960065  1.00000032
35     0.01573645  0.44516759  1.00000045
36     0.01590780  0.46090404  1.00000005
37     0.01608102  0.47681184  1.00000003
38     0.01625613  0.49289286  1.00000036
39     0.01643314  0.50914899  1.00000007
40     0.01661208  0.52558213  1.00000001
41     0.01679297  0.54219421  1.00000009
42     0.01697583  0.55898718  1.00000020
43     0.01716068  0.57596301  1.00000020
44     0.01734755  0.59312369  1.00000086
45     0.01753644  0.61047124  1.00000016
46     0.01772740  0.62800768  1.00000067
47     0.01792043  0.64573508  1.00000031
48     0.01811557  0.66365551  1.00000070
49     0.01831283  0.68177108  1.00000065
50     0.01851224  0.70008391  1.00000077
51     0.01871382  0.71859615  1.00000078
52     0.01891759  0.73730997  1.00000032
53     0.01912359  0.75622756  1.00000088
54     0.01933182  0.77535115  1.00000024
55     0.01954233  0.79468297  1.00000076
56     0.01975512  0.81422530  1.00000015
57     0.01997024  0.83398042  1.00000073
58     0.02018769  0.85395066  1.00000016
59     0.02040752  0.87413835  1.00000072
60     0.02062973  0.89454587  1.00000001
61     0.02085437  0.91517560  1.00000025
62     0.02108146  0.93602997  1.00000085
63     0.02131101  0.95711143  1.00000028
64     0.02154307  0.97842244  1.00000067
                   0.99996551        


Edit: and the calculations showing that it works for the first 5 bets:

>>> 0.01088902 * (99/1.0664 - 1)
1.0000008712228057
>>> 0.01100759 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902
1.0000008112303074
>>> 0.01112745 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759
1.0000006493023257
>>> 0.01124861 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745
1.0000000137959488
>>> 0.01137110 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 - 0.01124861
1.0000003597824456


Edit2: I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.

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February 21, 2015, 02:07:44 AM
 #66

tail some good sports betting guy.. I think thats the fastest way..

Probably this. I make about 4-4,5 units on average per week from betting. Using a 50 units bankroll you will need to make 50 units to double up, so it will take about 11-12 weeks.

Perphaps not as fast as some would like, however chances of going broke are close to non-existant, compared to wasting your time trying to figure out the "best" way to lose your money playing negative Ev games.
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February 21, 2015, 02:52:09 AM
 #67

But guys please understand that you can never beat the numbers. If there was a strategy to guaranteed win 2x or even be in the profit, casinos would be out of business and couldn't run since they couldn't maintain a neutral or positive profit over time. Best way is 2x 50/50 chance either you win or you don't. Slower way is to compound loan. Lend out 1 btc, get a return, lend out the 1 btc plus return, do that for a while and you will eventually hit your 2btc.

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February 21, 2015, 05:34:51 AM
 #68

But guys please understand that you can never beat the numbers.

It's a pretty simple question:

What strategy on a "standard dice site" has the highest chance of turning 1 BTC into 2 BTC?

Not "how can we beat the numbers?"
Not "what team should we bet on?"
Not "what is your favourite strategy?"

The question is pretty clear, and I'm amazed how many people seem to have failed to understand it.

If there was a strategy to guaranteed win 2x or even be in the profit, casinos would be out of business and couldn't run since they couldn't maintain a neutral or positive profit over time.

OK, so you're saying the best you can do is less than 100% chance? At least we have an upper bound on it now.

Best way is 2x 50/50 chance either you win or you don't.

Well, that's not an option. The dice site has a 1% edge, so you can get 2x at 49.5% or 1.98x at 50%. 2x at 50/50 would be a 0% edge. Also it has been shown above that you can do better than a single 2x bet.

Slower way is to compound loan.

Again, that's not allowed. The question states that you have to play on the dice site.

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February 21, 2015, 05:42:34 AM
 #69

do 1.2 multiplier bet with 0.01 if loose increase bet 6x if loose twice. return to base if ur lucky ull a some quick profits.

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February 21, 2015, 05:46:37 AM
 #70

do 1.2 multiplier bet with 0.01 if loose increase bet 6x if loose twice. return to base if ur lucky ull a some quick profits.

I think the optimal strategy is the one which expects to risk the least in total, since you expect to lose 1% of everything you risk.

To win 1 BTC betting with a 1.2x multiplier you need to risk at least 5 BTC, and you can expect to lose at least 5 times as much as a simple all-in with 2x multiplier (since that way you only risk 1 BTC in total).

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March 11, 2015, 09:00:35 PM
 #71

Bet on over 0.5 goals in soccer games, look at the h2h statistics and pick carefully. The odds are usually 1.1 and you need a couple of bets.

Agree with you here on the sports betting generally speaking. The fundamental thing is the house cant manipulate the results, they only have control of the odds. Selecting the right betting strategy after proper analysis can work in your favor. I am speaking from experience.
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March 11, 2015, 09:27:48 PM
 #72

Best way give it to cowbay and wait for the 50000x multiplier and bam double your bitcoin. And if no one else understands my strategy ryan will.

Cheers

If I win add here nick1234
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March 11, 2015, 09:32:25 PM
 #73

Just put the 1BTC on red with Roulette and hope for the best.
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March 11, 2015, 09:33:35 PM
 #74

1 BTC to 2x in dice and pray to win
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March 12, 2015, 03:10:24 AM
 #75

 Cool Count cards at blackjack table... 
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March 12, 2015, 04:50:42 AM
 #76

Cool Count cards at blackjack table... 

Then you are probably playing live and not for BTC. I don't think you can count online because they all use a continuous shuffle I believe.

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March 12, 2015, 05:41:27 AM
 #77

Then you are probably playing live and not for BTC. I don't think you can count online because they all use a continuous shuffle I believe.

Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.

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March 12, 2015, 06:11:38 AM
 #78

Then you are probably playing live and not for BTC. I don't think you can count online because they all use a continuous shuffle I believe.

Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.

They do not take players from NJ.

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March 12, 2015, 07:09:44 AM
 #79

u can use blackjack strategy depending on the dealer u should make more than 1 btc.

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March 12, 2015, 07:28:22 AM
 #80

u can use blackjack strategy depending on the dealer u should make more than 1 btc.

It is still difficult to double the money from Blackjack, even I used the strategy book, sometimes I got 19-20, the dealer got 21, even if I played in a provably fair casino.

Too tough to earn money from the casino. Cry

I get the better way is to play texas holdem, player vs player game is better, 50% to 50% odds, but it requires more skills, courage and luck.
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