dooglus
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February 21, 2015, 01:58:23 AM Last edit: February 21, 2015, 02:30:07 AM by dooglus Merited by DarkStar_ (7), suchmoon (4) |
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Strategy 1:You're always playing 9900x using a martingale sequence, i.e. your wager for each round is ceiling((2 - PLAYER_BR)/9899,1e-8) you run out of funds after 6861 bets. You lose all of them with a probability of 0.9999^6861 = 0.5035187605260536 or put differently you have a 49.64812% chance of winning. Strategy 2:You're constantly playing 20203 satoshi but increase the payout each round by exactly 1x starting at 4951x which will leave you with 1.00004850 BTC profit. You run out of funds after 4949 games and your last payout will be 9899x. You lose all of them with a probability of prod(1-0.99/i, i=4949..9899) = 0.5035283796177312 leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning. I Hope the math is correct How about this: bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664% if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit you can afford 64 bets chance of winning = 100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265% Edit: here are the 64 bets: chance multiplier 1.0664% 92.83570893x bet # stake total lost profit ----- ---------- ----------- ---------- 1 0.01088902 1.00000087 2 0.01100759 0.01088902 1.00000081 3 0.01112745 0.02189661 1.00000065 4 0.01124861 0.03302406 1.00000001 5 0.01137110 0.04427267 1.00000036 6 0.01149492 0.05564377 1.00000036 7 0.01162009 0.06713869 1.00000051 8 0.01174662 0.07875878 1.00000040 9 0.01187453 0.09050540 1.00000048 10 0.01200383 0.10237993 1.00000031 11 0.01213454 0.11438376 1.00000032 12 0.01226667 0.12651830 1.00000004 13 0.01240025 0.13878497 1.00000078 14 0.01253527 0.15118522 1.00000019 15 0.01267177 0.16372049 1.00000049 16 0.01280975 0.17639226 1.00000021 17 0.01294924 0.18920201 1.00000063 18 0.01309024 0.20215125 1.00000022 19 0.01323278 0.21524149 1.00000024 20 0.01337687 0.22847427 1.00000007 21 0.01352254 0.24185114 1.00000091 22 0.01366978 0.25537368 1.00000026 23 0.01381863 0.26904346 1.00000022 24 0.01396910 0.28286209 1.00000011 25 0.01412121 0.29683119 1.00000014 26 0.01427498 0.31095240 1.00000051 27 0.01443042 0.32522738 1.00000047 28 0.01458755 0.33965780 1.00000020 29 0.01474640 0.35424535 1.00000075 30 0.01490697 0.36899175 1.00000041 31 0.01506929 0.38389872 1.00000021 32 0.01523338 0.39896801 1.00000024 33 0.01539926 0.41420139 1.00000057 34 0.01556694 0.42960065 1.00000032 35 0.01573645 0.44516759 1.00000045 36 0.01590780 0.46090404 1.00000005 37 0.01608102 0.47681184 1.00000003 38 0.01625613 0.49289286 1.00000036 39 0.01643314 0.50914899 1.00000007 40 0.01661208 0.52558213 1.00000001 41 0.01679297 0.54219421 1.00000009 42 0.01697583 0.55898718 1.00000020 43 0.01716068 0.57596301 1.00000020 44 0.01734755 0.59312369 1.00000086 45 0.01753644 0.61047124 1.00000016 46 0.01772740 0.62800768 1.00000067 47 0.01792043 0.64573508 1.00000031 48 0.01811557 0.66365551 1.00000070 49 0.01831283 0.68177108 1.00000065 50 0.01851224 0.70008391 1.00000077 51 0.01871382 0.71859615 1.00000078 52 0.01891759 0.73730997 1.00000032 53 0.01912359 0.75622756 1.00000088 54 0.01933182 0.77535115 1.00000024 55 0.01954233 0.79468297 1.00000076 56 0.01975512 0.81422530 1.00000015 57 0.01997024 0.83398042 1.00000073 58 0.02018769 0.85395066 1.00000016 59 0.02040752 0.87413835 1.00000072 60 0.02062973 0.89454587 1.00000001 61 0.02085437 0.91517560 1.00000025 62 0.02108146 0.93602997 1.00000085 63 0.02131101 0.95711143 1.00000028 64 0.02154307 0.97842244 1.00000067 0.99996551 Edit: and the calculations showing that it works for the first 5 bets: >>> 0.01088902 * (99/1.0664 - 1) 1.0000008712228057 >>> 0.01100759 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 1.0000008112303074 >>> 0.01112745 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 1.0000006493023257 >>> 0.01124861 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 1.0000000137959488 >>> 0.01137110 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 - 0.01124861 1.0000003597824456Edit2: I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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magicmexican
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February 21, 2015, 02:07:44 AM |
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tail some good sports betting guy.. I think thats the fastest way..
Probably this. I make about 4-4,5 units on average per week from betting. Using a 50 units bankroll you will need to make 50 units to double up, so it will take about 11-12 weeks. Perphaps not as fast as some would like, however chances of going broke are close to non-existant, compared to wasting your time trying to figure out the "best" way to lose your money playing negative Ev games.
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funtotry
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Ever wanted to run your own casino? PM me for info
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February 21, 2015, 02:52:09 AM |
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But guys please understand that you can never beat the numbers. If there was a strategy to guaranteed win 2x or even be in the profit, casinos would be out of business and couldn't run since they couldn't maintain a neutral or positive profit over time. Best way is 2x 50/50 chance either you win or you don't. Slower way is to compound loan. Lend out 1 btc, get a return, lend out the 1 btc plus return, do that for a while and you will eventually hit your 2btc.
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dooglus
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February 21, 2015, 05:34:51 AM |
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But guys please understand that you can never beat the numbers.
It's a pretty simple question: What strategy on a "standard dice site" has the highest chance of turning 1 BTC into 2 BTC? Not "how can we beat the numbers?" Not "what team should we bet on?" Not "what is your favourite strategy?" The question is pretty clear, and I'm amazed how many people seem to have failed to understand it. If there was a strategy to guaranteed win 2x or even be in the profit, casinos would be out of business and couldn't run since they couldn't maintain a neutral or positive profit over time.
OK, so you're saying the best you can do is less than 100% chance? At least we have an upper bound on it now. Best way is 2x 50/50 chance either you win or you don't.
Well, that's not an option. The dice site has a 1% edge, so you can get 2x at 49.5% or 1.98x at 50%. 2x at 50/50 would be a 0% edge. Also it has been shown above that you can do better than a single 2x bet. Slower way is to compound loan.
Again, that's not allowed. The question states that you have to play on the dice site.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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activebiz
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February 21, 2015, 05:42:34 AM |
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do 1.2 multiplier bet with 0.01 if loose increase bet 6x if loose twice. return to base if ur lucky ull a some quick profits.
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dooglus
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February 21, 2015, 05:46:37 AM |
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do 1.2 multiplier bet with 0.01 if loose increase bet 6x if loose twice. return to base if ur lucky ull a some quick profits.
I think the optimal strategy is the one which expects to risk the least in total, since you expect to lose 1% of everything you risk. To win 1 BTC betting with a 1.2x multiplier you need to risk at least 5 BTC, and you can expect to lose at least 5 times as much as a simple all-in with 2x multiplier (since that way you only risk 1 BTC in total).
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Alphabit
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March 11, 2015, 09:00:35 PM |
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Bet on over 0.5 goals in soccer games, look at the h2h statistics and pick carefully. The odds are usually 1.1 and you need a couple of bets.
Agree with you here on the sports betting generally speaking. The fundamental thing is the house cant manipulate the results, they only have control of the odds. Selecting the right betting strategy after proper analysis can work in your favor. I am speaking from experience.
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Tongkar
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March 11, 2015, 09:27:48 PM |
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Best way give it to cowbay and wait for the 50000x multiplier and bam double your bitcoin. And if no one else understands my strategy ryan will.
Cheers
If I win add here nick1234
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avw1982
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March 11, 2015, 09:32:25 PM |
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Just put the 1BTC on red with Roulette and hope for the best.
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bitllionaire
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March 11, 2015, 09:33:35 PM |
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1 BTC to 2x in dice and pray to win
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james777
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March 12, 2015, 03:10:24 AM |
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Count cards at blackjack table...
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jmurjeff
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March 12, 2015, 04:50:42 AM |
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Count cards at blackjack table... Then you are probably playing live and not for BTC. I don't think you can count online because they all use a continuous shuffle I believe.
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dooglus
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March 12, 2015, 05:41:27 AM |
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Then you are probably playing live and not for BTC. I don't think you can count online because they all use a continuous shuffle I believe.
Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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jmurjeff
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March 12, 2015, 06:11:38 AM |
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Then you are probably playing live and not for BTC. I don't think you can count online because they all use a continuous shuffle I believe.
Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right. They do not take players from NJ.
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activebiz
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March 12, 2015, 07:09:44 AM |
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u can use blackjack strategy depending on the dealer u should make more than 1 btc.
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fox19891989
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March 12, 2015, 07:28:22 AM |
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u can use blackjack strategy depending on the dealer u should make more than 1 btc.
It is still difficult to double the money from Blackjack, even I used the strategy book, sometimes I got 19-20, the dealer got 21, even if I played in a provably fair casino. Too tough to earn money from the casino. I get the better way is to play texas holdem, player vs player game is better, 50% to 50% odds, but it requires more skills, courage and luck.
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Wendigo
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March 12, 2015, 07:49:19 AM |
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What is that strategy book that you mentioned in the above post?
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dooglus
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March 12, 2015, 07:52:26 AM |
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What is that strategy book that you mentioned in the above post?
Try this: http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/calculator/
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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fox19891989
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March 12, 2015, 08:00:40 AM |
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Yeah, the one dooglus gave it to you. If you strictly follow the strategy book, a fair casino still has 0.4%-0.6% house edge. The more number of the decks, the higher house edge is. One deck is lowest, 8-deck BJ is highest. You can copy that, you can even see that while you are playing in the real casino.
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steven.G999
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March 12, 2015, 08:45:48 AM |
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I personally will make a bet on sports, making parlay with 2 odds, and choose a team that is sure to win in the game. you can try it on direcbet, there has a pretty safe bet option.
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