mexxer-2
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October 17, 2015, 06:15:50 PM |
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Hmm just thought about it, has OP yet paid the prize he has claimed to pay to the best method or is he still searching for more strats?
He already paid, and it's likely we have the best strategy already. Could you point to the post which won it? And did it really have lower chances of losing?(highest EV I mean)
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dooglus
Legendary
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October 17, 2015, 06:21:05 PM |
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Could you point to the post which won it? And did it really have lower chances of losing?(highest EV I mean)
These two posts: leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.
you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.
chance of winning = 100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%
And yes, they have a higher EV because on average they risk less. The EV is -1% of the amount you risk, so minimising the amount you risk maximises the EV. The corollary to this of course is that the optimal strategy for maximising your EV is to risk 0 - ie. stop playing. A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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knowhow
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 18, 2015, 07:20:36 PM |
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Well one funny way to get fast 1btc ,im sure you cant play with 1 btc but you can earn 600% or even 1000% playing a game ,and well only need lucky and a good conection im playing yesterday i made 40ksatoshis with 10k fee xD,i guess i cant post any ref link here soo send me pm.
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Coef
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 18, 2015, 07:28:30 PM |
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Hmm just thought about it, has OP yet paid the prize he has claimed to pay to the best method or is he still searching for more strats?
He already paid, and it's likely we have the best strategy already. It is dangerous to jump to the conclusion quickly. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.
you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.
chance of winning = 100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%
With 1 btc, I should be able to make a total of 3430 x4950 (ie 0.02%) bets, each with a bet size of roundup((2-balance)/4949) to the nearest satoshi that could bring my balance to slightly over 2 btc if the bet wins. After that, I will have 0.00027093 left and a final x9900 (ie 0.01%) bet can be made which could bring my balance to 2.682207 btc. Check http://pastebin.com/TL7xLTx4 for the complete betting sequence in details in CSV format. Chance of winning = 1 - ((1 - 0.02%) ^ 3430 * (1 - 0.01%)) = 49.649851332%. Or, I should be able to make a total of 2287 x3300 (ie 0.03%) bets, each with a bet size of roundup((2-balance)/3299) to the nearest satoshi. Check http://pastebin.com/Je5ujHH9 for the complete betting sequence in details in CSV format. Chance of winning = 1 - ((1 - 0.03%) ^ 2287) = 49.651579392% Yeah, but you also said: added 0.1 to blockage's account. If someone can beat his solution, I'll give them 0.1 as well.
Ahh touché, forgot I wrote that. I notice the word "them" in the quote. Do I get 0.1 btc for beating dooglus' solution? ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
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wearepoor
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October 18, 2015, 08:23:17 PM |
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I think its possible but at the same time it is little difficult too. I believe that the best way to earn 1 btc is sports betting only If you have good knowledge about sports and if you are able to predict the result. So as per me you can take a chance with sports betting as there are many chances to make some good profit. Avoid the other ways of gambling where you can loose the money.
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RHavar (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 2557
Merit: 1886
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October 18, 2015, 08:38:33 PM |
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I notice the word "them" in the quote. Do I get 0.1 btc for beating dooglus' solution? ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Damn it. Guess that serves me right for trying to use gender-neutral pronouns. What's your MP or BaB username? (Give me a day or two to verify the solution, and after this, no more prize money will be given out ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) )
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Check out gamblingsitefinder.com for a decent list/rankings of crypto casinos. Note: I have no affiliation or interest in it, and don't even agree with all the rankings ... but it's the only uncorrupted review site I'm aware of.
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dooglus
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October 19, 2015, 01:21:02 AM |
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Chance of winning = 1 - ((1 - 0.02%) ^ 3430 * (1 - 0.01%)) = 49.649851332%. Chance of winning = 1 - ((1 - 0.03%) ^ 2287) = 49.651579392% I notice the word "them" in the quote. Do I get 0.1 btc for beating dooglus' solution? ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) My recent post shows strategies that give a 49.6522222% percent chance of winning, so your post (which came after) doesn't beat mine. Are you able to beat 49.6522222%, or do you think that is a hard limit? Here's a chart showing your two strategies, and where they fit on the curve of possible martingale strategies. The higher the payout multiplier you play with, the closer you get to the 49.652222% chance: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F6YkV1e4.png&t=663&c=thi8MBPoGIy_oA) I wonder if flat-betting would be better? Like we could divide the 1 BTC into N=10 0.1 bets. Bet the first 0.1 at 11x. If we win, we're 1 BTC up, so we stop. Bet the 2nd 0.1 12x. If we win, we're 1 BTC up, so we stop. Etc. Bet the Nth at (10+N)x. We're always 1 BTC up if we win. Turns out it isn't better. What's funny is it is exactly the same. Here's a Python script that calculates the chance of doubling up using this flat-betting strategy for various N: for m in range(0, 6): for N in range(10**m, 10**(m+1), 10**m): p = 1.0 for i in range (1, N+1): p *= (1 - 0.99 / (N+i))
print "%6d %.8f" % (N, 1 - p)
And here's its output: 1 0.49500000 2 0.49582500 3 0.49607333 4 0.49619171 5 0.49626081 6 0.49630606 7 0.49633797 8 0.49636168 9 0.49637999 10 0.49639455 20 0.49645915 30 0.49648035 40 0.49649088 50 0.49649718 60 0.49650137 70 0.49650436 80 0.49650660 90 0.49650834 100 0.49650973 200 0.49651599 300 0.49651807 400 0.49651911 500 0.49651973 600 0.49652015 700 0.49652044 800 0.49652067 900 0.49652084 1000 0.49652098 2000 0.49652160 3000 0.49652181 4000 0.49652191 5000 0.49652198 6000 0.49652202 7000 0.49652205 8000 0.49652207 9000 0.49652209 10000 0.49652210 20000 0.49652216 30000 0.49652218 40000 0.49652219 50000 0.49652220 60000 0.49652220 70000 0.49652221 80000 0.49652221 90000 0.49652221 100000 0.49652221 200000 0.49652222 300000 0.49652222 400000 0.49652222 500000 0.49652222 600000 0.49652222 700000 0.49652222 800000 0.49652222 900000 0.49652222
It converges on 49.6522222% chance of doubling up again!
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
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October 19, 2015, 04:51:49 AM |
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I'd love an explanation of why it tops out at 0.496522222!
It turns out that number doesn't end with recurring 2's, but is in fact: >>> 1 - 2**-0.99 0.49652222497164056 I calculated it using L'Hôpital's rule, which I vaguely remember learning about in high school.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Xenoph0bia
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October 19, 2015, 09:05:56 PM |
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I think its possible but at the same time it is little difficult too. I believe that the best way to earn 1 btc is sports betting only If you have good knowledge about sports and if you are able to predict the result. So as per me you can take a chance with sports betting as there are many chances to make some good profit. Avoid the other ways of gambling where you can loose the money.
Agreed with you that it is possible but at the same time its difficult too. People can loose the money while trying to earn one btc in gambling, they should follow some techniques and other strategies to minimize the loss or else they will loose their 1 btc instead of earning 1 btc.
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knowhow
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 19, 2015, 10:59:32 PM |
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On the begining for sure bet 1 btc worthing 1 dollars weren nothing nowadays is worthing 250dollars soo why the hell i should try with 1 btc to double since i know and most of us know that the lucky usually stays with the owner of the project being casino,dice or any other way.
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Coef
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October 19, 2015, 11:09:08 PM |
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Are you able to beat 49.6522222%, or do you think that is a hard limit?
After going through post #198 carefully, I agree the number 1 - 2**-0.99 you get should be the limit under perfect conditions (the bet size and multiplier can always be set to make the balance after winning a bet to be exactly 2 btc). Under actual conditions (bet size cannot contain a fraction of satoshi, bet win chance % can only contain 2 decimal place) it cannot be done and so the "best" way would be slightly lower than that. BTW, I have not heard of the word "L'Hopital's rule" for like a decade lol. My recent post shows strategies that give a 49.6522222% percent chance of winning, so your post (which came after) doesn't beat mine.
As mentioned in the OP, the betting sequence has to be well-defined and subject to the constraints of a dice site such as Bitdice or PRC. IMHO, the numbers you get in that post does not seem to qualify. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) I notice the word "them" in the quote. Do I get 0.1 btc for beating dooglus' solution? ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Damn it. Guess that serves me right for trying to use gender-neutral pronouns. What's your MP or BaB username? (Give me a day or two to verify the solution, and after this, no more prize money will be given out ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) ) Received the 0.1 btc. Thanks Ryan. ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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leex1528
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October 19, 2015, 11:45:12 PM |
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Doog, how did you learn all of this? I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds. Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what? Any thoughts?
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knowhow
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October 20, 2015, 11:32:51 PM |
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You can do all calculations but only one thing will allow to earn 1 btc playing with 1 btc that is lucky the 49% means nothing besides you can loose as win anytime.
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hua_hui
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October 20, 2015, 11:54:04 PM |
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Doog, how did you learn all of this? I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds. Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what? Any thoughts?
well it is actually quite simple mathematical calculation. you can start using it when you learn probability with tree diagram. but instead of picking 2 or 3 people or throwing 2/3 dice, the same occuring series can be applied to larger number of trials. on higher level(my country use terms diff from you so i may use the wrong term) in pre-u school, you can learn even how to estimate your probability by approximating the binominal distribute to other form of distribute that allow more easy of calculation. And to be honest, this is the first time i ever encountered after learning L'Hôpital's rule in uni. lol. finally what i learn got some use to it!
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Rammus
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October 21, 2015, 12:58:15 AM |
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Doog, how did you learn all of this? I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds. Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what? Any thoughts?
I`m pretty sure it comes from either majoring in math.. That alone or picking up and building the dice itself and studying the game which lead to his site? who knows lol.
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hua_hui
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October 21, 2015, 04:22:58 AM |
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Doog, how did you learn all of this? I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds. Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what? Any thoughts?
I`m pretty sure it comes from either majoring in math.. That alone or picking up and building the dice itself and studying the game which lead to his site? who knows lol. for my country(in asia), probability is learn at y7 to y10, where you need to learn how to calculate when you throw up to 3 dices or pick 3 balls. of course, for good sch, they have to learn on how to calculate for n throws where n can be large. for advance y11 to y12, we learn for large n, what probability for specific k times of winning. but i believe dooglus even learn up to university standard as he mention that he know about L'Hôpital's rule which is only taught when your major has things to do with math where you have to look at the big picture.
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Aemon
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October 21, 2015, 12:47:58 PM |
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So basically you are saying that strategy is good and the best thing you can use no matter what? No matter the amount of large rolls you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?
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ndnh
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New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit
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October 21, 2015, 02:06:56 PM |
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...you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?
Not really. If you are concerned about increasing your EV and beating the edge, you shouldn't play. Whichever strategy you pick, you can only minimize the impact of house edge on your EV. Maximize impact of HE on EV : bet at 98% win chance. ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Minimize impact of house edge : follow the winning strategies of Dooglus and the other winner. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Nullify impact of house edge : Don't play. Beat the house edge : Not possible.
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hua_hui
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October 21, 2015, 04:00:21 PM |
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So basically you are saying that strategy is good and the best thing you can use no matter what? No matter the amount of large rolls you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?
nope, what we are trying to show u is that no matter how many different stragety we can come out with, the chance of getting it right is always less than 50%. so in another words, it is more likely you lost it all than to gain. so best is dont bet.
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jackg
Copper Member
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https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory
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October 21, 2015, 04:04:30 PM |
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You could possibly try pokarautomatics or carbon7 for this. You will get 2btc in around 5 weeks from a 1btc investment! There is less risk to this than bitcoin mining. They apparently use automated "bots" to basicallymine from gambling pokar sites to gain money/bitcoin.
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