Challenge: What's the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC?

[RHavar]

Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).

Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet.  Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize the chance of winning 1 BTC. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.

Let me start with the most obvious solution:


Bet 1 BTC @ 2x  ... which gives an EV of -0.01, and a chance of winning at 49.5%

[1715036763]

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[michinzx]

three methods in mind, you could use a martingale to slowly profit with a positive progression system:
ex with martingale you would want to have a decent rate of profit to double your bank, so a 45% win chance(2.2x payout with 1% house edge) with a 120-150+ increase on loss with a base bet of 100 satoshi as a lower limit could work. Ive done this exact same thing and doubled my (substantially smaller) bankroll in a few hours, using a lower base bet of 10 satoshi. IF you feel this might involve a bit too much risk i used to use a martingale with different numbers with much smaller bankrolls(like 500k satoshi):

This other system relies on loss streaks to generate a profit; low win chance (9% win 11x payout on 1% house edge), and a marginal increase in profit (11-13%) with a small base bet 10 satoshi, in your case maybe use 50 - 70). As your loss streaks build up, the profit gained from a win increases exponentially, albeit a very small exponent > 1. This system involves less "risk" than a traditional 2x martingale but also profits much slower. when using this method make sure you can take AT LEAST 100 loss streaks from you initial bet using an appropriate compound interest formula.

then theres option 3 to deposit it all onto moneypot and let it ride, which might give you a stress induced heart attack for 10 seconds ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[dwdoc]

Compare any gambling strategy to simply holding 1 Bitcoin for 6 months.  Chances are best you will double your money that way.

[jambola2]

Compare any gambling strategy to simply holding 1 Bitcoin for 6 months.  Chances are best you will double your money that way.

Oh really ? I didn't know that holding one bitcoin would make it two bitcoins as specifically asked by the OP.

[michinzx]

Compare any gambling strategy to simply holding 1 Bitcoin for 6 months.  Chances are best you will double your money that way.

op wants to double his btc, not double the value of his btc

[twister]

I think I might know a way but nothing is full proof and I have used it many times to double small amounts like 0.01 -0.05 but I don't wanna share it for free.

[DarKSpectrE]

Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).

Not exactly free, bro.

[yahoo62278]

i personally have been messing with a system on primedice that did well for me yesterday.

11 sat base 7% win chance 25% increase on loss. autoroll to a huge win. i won .5 using this system. and i started with much less. with 1btc starter id prob start with 100 sat base.

[coinableS]

I've run a ton of different sequences to find out the most reliable way to double your bankroll.
The 2x bet does not work well at all.
Here are two techniques I use that work well but you can not automate.
So I came up with a method I like to call the twist.
Start with 2x and bet less than.
If loss quadruple your bet and, change to 75% win chance and flip it to bet greater than.


Another one that is similar start at 2x, on loss change to 3.33x, on loss change to 9.99x, on loss double your bet and go back to 3.33x, on loss triple your bet and go back to 2x. Repeat.

[ninjaboon]

i personally have been messing with a system on primedice that did well for me yesterday.

11 sat base 7% win chance 25% increase on loss. autoroll to a huge win. i won .5 using this system. and i started with much less. with 1btc starter id prob start with 100 sat base.

My lowest was 45% win chance.
never tried to go to such a low figure as 7%.
will try it out.

[fox19891989]

many ways:

1. future trading. try 20X. 50X legerage trading, if you are lucky enough, you may earn 20btc in 1 week.

2. binary option trading, you can register with my signature link, fortunejack has binary option trading, if you guess the right direction, you can make 1.8X in 1 minute, today I used 0.06btc to earn 0.05btc in some bets, feeling good, quick profit.

3. dice bet 0.1btc with 2X per roll, increase your bet when you earn a lot.   I used 80k doge and earned 3.4million doge in 1 week last year.

[yahoo62278]

i personally have been messing with a system on primedice that did well for me yesterday.

11 sat base 7% win chance 25% increase on loss. autoroll to a huge win. i won .5 using this system. and i started with much less. with 1btc starter id prob start with 100 sat base.

My lowest was 45% win chance.
never tried to go to such a low figure as 7%.
will try it out.

i recommend a minimum .1-.2 starter roll. you will see lots of red streaks and you gotta be able to sustain 50-75 losses

[ninjaboon]

i personally have been messing with a system on primedice that did well for me yesterday.

11 sat base 7% win chance 25% increase on loss. autoroll to a huge win. i won .5 using this system. and i started with much less. with 1btc starter id prob start with 100 sat base.

My lowest was 45% win chance.
never tried to go to such a low figure as 7%.
will try it out.

i recommend a minimum .1-.2 starter roll. you will see lots of red streaks and you gotta be able to sustain 50-75 losses

ok to be clear, its 0.1 btc to 0.2 btc starter roll? cool.

[GLBrim]

0.1 bet at 90% win chance @ dice sites.. you only need 100 wins xD

[twicezeroiszero]

I would say bet 0.1 at x10 after a preroll that should work if your lucky.

[MadZ]

Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize EV.

According to these conditions, maximal EV with 1 BTC bankroll attempting to win 1 BTC is achieved by making 1 bet of 0.0001010101 BTC @ 9900x.

.0001*1 - .9999*0.0001010101 = -0.00000099999899

You won't find a higher EV than this given typical dice site constraints.

[Mitchell]

Binary option & minesweeper is the best way to reach 100% easily
Martingale at dice site is good, since some players able to double their bitcoin at dice site

Personally i'll choose binary option

many ways:

1. future trading. try 20X. 50X legerage trading, if you are lucky enough, you may earn 20btc in 1 week.

2. binary option trading, you can register with my signature link, fortunejack has binary option trading, if you guess the right direction, you can make 1.8X in 1 minute, today I used 0.06btc to earn 0.05btc in some bets, feeling good, quick profit.

3. dice bet 0.1btc with 2X per roll, increase your bet when you earn a lot.   I used 80k doge and earned 3.4million doge in 1 week last year.

You two both didn't read the OP and are just posting here to earn some BTC. RHavar asked for a betting sequence, nothing else.

[bitbaby]

If you have a bankroll of 1 btc, try this 70% start with 1000k sats, bet only one way, 10x after 4 losses. It will take time but it will work. Good luck!

[Aaron2dc71]

do 20x multiplier bets with 0.1.. its just win or loss.. no guaranteed profit on gambling i guess

[redsn0w]

Use this technique on primedice :

Multiplier: x 6.262  - Increase on loss : 22.71 % - BaseBet : 15 satoshi.

[FanEagle]

4 bets of 60% win?
That should fit. I got so nice lucky streaks with 60%.
To be more specific:
Bet size 0.5
60% of win chance.
Over
0.325*4= 1,3btc

[boumalo]

Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).

Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet.  Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize EV. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.

Let me start with the most obvious solution:


Bet 1 BTC @ 2x  ... which gives an EV of -0.01

I don't think you will find better than the most obvious solution

[RHavar]

According to these conditions, maximal EV with 1 BTC bankroll attempting to win 1 BTC is achieved by making 1 bet of 0.0001010101 BTC @ 9900x.

You're right, my language was pretty poorly picked. I should have said: "Maximizing the probability to win 1 BTC" as opposed to "Maximizing the EV".  Your bet does however does use fractions of a satosishis, so I'll give you 0.05 if you tell me your MP Account or bitcoin address.

The core question is still open, and for the people who suggested martingale betting sequences, I'll writes some code to figure out the probabilities a bit later.

[blockage]

Strategy 1:
You're always playing 9900x using a martingale sequence, i.e. your wager for each round is

Code:

ceiling((2 - PLAYER_BR)/9899,1e-8)

you run out of funds after 6861 bets. You lose all of them with a probability of

Code:

0.9999^6861 = 0.5035187605260536

or put differently you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

Strategy 2:
You're constantly playing 20203 satoshi but increase the payout each round by exactly 1x starting at 4951x which will leave you with 1.00004850 BTC profit. You run out of funds after 4949 games and your last payout will be 9899x. You lose all of them with a probability of

Code:

prod(1-0.99/i, i=4949..9899) = 0.5035283796177312

leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.

I Hope the math is correct 

[RHavar]

Strategy 1:
You're always playing 9900x using a martingale sequence, i.e. your wager for each round is

Code:

ceiling((2 - PLAYER_BR)/9899,1e-8)

you run out of funds after 6861 bets. You lose all of them with a probability of

Code:

0.9999^6861 = 0.5035187605260536

or put differently you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

I was hoping someone first provide simpler sequences (e.g. bet 0.5 at 3x, if lose bet the other 0.5 at 4x: which reduces the  house edge to 0.835%), but looks like you might have nailed the ideal (?) betting sequence , with an effective house edge of  0.70376%.

If no one can beat this, you have a well-deserved 0.1 BTC coming your way

[1gallon]

RHavar

following the post from blockage, you can reduce the house edge even more with another website that is 0.5% house edge, thus reducing it to an effective 0.20376% house edge at safedice.com

[RHavar]

RHavar

following the post from blockage, you can reduce the house edge even more with another website that is 0.5% house edge, thus reducing it to an effective 0.20376% house edge at safedice.com

Currently doing one of blockage's bets on safedice now would incur a ~2.5% house edge, due to their floating edge scheme. The point of the thread wasn't "which site is the best", but more "which betting sequence is the best, given a fixed house edge".  =)

[1gallon]

RHavar

following the post from blockage, you can reduce the house edge even more with another website that is 0.5% house edge, thus reducing it to an effective 0.20376% house edge at safedice.com

Currently doing one of blockage's bets on safedice now would incur a ~2.5% house edge, due to their floating edge scheme. The point of the thread wasn't "which site is the best", but more "which betting sequence is the best, given a fixed house edge".  =)

ah i see that now.

This is not a true fibonnaci, but

bet series looks like: 1 2 3 4 7 11 18 after 2 wins back to base.

basebet: 0.00000001
loss 1: increase by 0.00000001
loss 2: increase by 0.00000001
loss 3: increase by 0.00000001
loss 4: increase by previous bet
loss 5: increase by previous bet
loss 6: increase by previous bet
win 7: stay same roll again


I'm not sure how to calculate the EV though.

[Madern]

Go to satoshimines and bet 1 btc on 3 mines and in 8-9 bets you ate good to go

[elephantas1]

Use this technique on primedice :

Multiplier: x 6.262  - Increase on loss : 22.71 % - BaseBet : 15 satoshi.

and this would take a few hours and most probably you will still end up loosing it. i personally would make 1 btc all in bet and pray to win it

[funtotry]

Simplest and most reliable way would just do a 50% bet on primedice. All these betting "strategies" won't make you a profit, the sites design to make you lose. Try doing a 2x bet. You either lose it all or get your goal.

[freedomno1]

Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).

Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet.  Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize the chance of winning 1 BTC. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.

Let me start with the most obvious solution:


Bet 1 BTC @ 2x  ... which gives an EV of -0.01, and a chance of winning at 49.5%

Take a bet on Betmoose and choose the winning side
Rinse and repeat with outcomes that are known but not settled yet or where it's very close to settle

Edit with constraints
Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet.  Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize the chance of winning 1 BTC. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.

Buy Clams and invest in just dice XD

But lets see
Multiplier X 12
Bet size 0.01
Repeat till win then multiply X2
If win 0.02 till win
If lose 0.01 till win
Or Bust

[Wendigo]

Bet on over 0.5 goals in soccer games, look at the h2h statistics and pick carefully. The odds are usually 1.1 and you need a couple of bets.

[MadZ]

According to these conditions, maximal EV with 1 BTC bankroll attempting to win 1 BTC is achieved by making 1 bet of 0.0001010101 BTC @ 9900x.

You're right, my language was pretty poorly picked. I should have said: "Maximizing the probability to win 1 BTC" as opposed to "Maximizing the EV".  Your bet does however does use fractions of a satosishis, so I'll give you 0.05 if you tell me your MP Account or bitcoin address.

The core question is still open, and for the people who suggested martingale betting sequences, I'll writes some code to figure out the probabilities a bit later.

I made a Moneypot account with the username MadZ, deposit address 1LnQYjwRhsZkp21jaMx6PNJynBw6w2BrKR, thanks!

Public note: If my btctalk account is compromised in the future, I believe I will be unable to sign this address to prove ownership.

I believe blockage's two solutions will probably yield the highest probability of achieving 1 BTC, although I will make an attempt at it later. The key is to minimize the amount you wager, which is done at the lowest odds, since the more you wager the more you lose out to the house edge.

[1gallon]

According to these conditions, maximal EV with 1 BTC bankroll attempting to win 1 BTC is achieved by making 1 bet of 0.0001010101 BTC @ 9900x.

You're right, my language was pretty poorly picked. I should have said: "Maximizing the probability to win 1 BTC" as opposed to "Maximizing the EV".  Your bet does however does use fractions of a satosishis, so I'll give you 0.05 if you tell me your MP Account or bitcoin address.

The core question is still open, and for the people who suggested martingale betting sequences, I'll writes some code to figure out the probabilities a bit later.

I made a Moneypot account with the username MadZ, deposit address 1LnQYjwRhsZkp21jaMx6PNJynBw6w2BrKR, thanks!

Public note: If my btctalk account is compromised in the future, I believe I will be unable to sign this address to prove ownership.

I believe blockage's two solutions will probably yield the highest probability of achieving 1 BTC, although I will make an attempt at it later. The key is to minimize the amount you wager, which is done at the lowest odds, since the more you wager the more you lose out to the house edge.

Here's something that no one else really do, but i abuse it every so often. If you bet with 2 satoshi at 1.33% payout on primedice, you'll 'win' 1 satoshi how's that for beating house edge!! if you bet 5 satoshi, you'll win 2 saotoshi back ;P and if you bet 8, you'll win 3 satoshi

[Aemon]

I am quite certain there is no better odds than Martingale. 

You will probably want to have enough money for say 20 losses. 

The second safest best is to YOLO it all.  These are the 2 highest chances you will have in order to win that much BTC.

[MadZ]

According to these conditions, maximal EV with 1 BTC bankroll attempting to win 1 BTC is achieved by making 1 bet of 0.0001010101 BTC @ 9900x.

You're right, my language was pretty poorly picked. I should have said: "Maximizing the probability to win 1 BTC" as opposed to "Maximizing the EV".  Your bet does however does use fractions of a satosishis, so I'll give you 0.05 if you tell me your MP Account or bitcoin address.

The core question is still open, and for the people who suggested martingale betting sequences, I'll writes some code to figure out the probabilities a bit later.

I made a Moneypot account with the username MadZ, deposit address 1LnQYjwRhsZkp21jaMx6PNJynBw6w2BrKR, thanks!

Public note: If my btctalk account is compromised in the future, I believe I will be unable to sign this address to prove ownership.

I believe blockage's two solutions will probably yield the highest probability of achieving 1 BTC, although I will make an attempt at it later. The key is to minimize the amount you wager, which is done at the lowest odds, since the more you wager the more you lose out to the house edge.

Here's something that no one else really do, but i abuse it every so often. If you bet with 2 satoshi at 1.33% payout on primedice, you'll 'win' 1 satoshi how's that for beating house edge!! if you bet 5 satoshi, you'll win 2 saotoshi back ;P and if you bet 8, you'll win 3 satoshi

Your actual balance is rounded beyond what you see on your screen, this does not work.

[Aemon]

According to these conditions, maximal EV with 1 BTC bankroll attempting to win 1 BTC is achieved by making 1 bet of 0.0001010101 BTC @ 9900x.

You're right, my language was pretty poorly picked. I should have said: "Maximizing the probability to win 1 BTC" as opposed to "Maximizing the EV".  Your bet does however does use fractions of a satosishis, so I'll give you 0.05 if you tell me your MP Account or bitcoin address.

The core question is still open, and for the people who suggested martingale betting sequences, I'll writes some code to figure out the probabilities a bit later.

I made a Moneypot account with the username MadZ, deposit address 1LnQYjwRhsZkp21jaMx6PNJynBw6w2BrKR, thanks!

Public note: If my btctalk account is compromised in the future, I believe I will be unable to sign this address to prove ownership.

I believe blockage's two solutions will probably yield the highest probability of achieving 1 BTC, although I will make an attempt at it later. The key is to minimize the amount you wager, which is done at the lowest odds, since the more you wager the more you lose out to the house edge.

Here's something that no one else really do, but i abuse it every so often. If you bet with 2 satoshi at 1.33% payout on primedice, you'll 'win' 1 satoshi how's that for beating house edge!! if you bet 5 satoshi, you'll win 2 saotoshi back ;P and if you bet 8, you'll win 3 satoshi

Your actual balance is rounded beyond what you see on your screen, this does not work.

Yes, there are fractional bits at the end of those, so you won't profit that much every time, it will just be some of the time so you won't be the house edge that way

[RHavar]

I made a Moneypot account with the username MadZ, deposit address 1LnQYjwRhsZkp21jaMx6PNJynBw6w2BrKR, thanks!

Sent you 0.05: 8983f965ddd3d6e5b42a4b035f6b3072ff4984ce726f13a6b687e79260fa3ada

and added 0.1 to blockage's account. If someone can beat his solution, I'll give them 0.1 as well.

[srgkrgkj]

Here's the strategy:

1. Choose a game with a particular price multiplier to play. Let r = the price multiplier
2. Let total number of times you want to make a bet on this game = "bets".
3. Let maximum amount of coin willing to lose = "max"
4. p is probability of winning the game you're playing, q is the probability of losing the same game, q = 1 - p
5. Let the amount by which you multiply each bet after a loss be "m", m = 1/(1 - 1/r)
6. Let expected losses in a row be "n", n  = -log(bets*p + 1)/log(q)
7. Let "init" be the ideal starting amount to gamble (in the absence of transaction fees and 0.5% return on loss = max/sum(m^(1:n))

Generally, transaction fees and return on loss have little effect on the strategy. However, if you would like to take them into account:

7. Let "init" be the starting amount to gamble when taking account fees and 0.5% return on loss,
init = (max - n * 0.0005)/(sum(m^(1:n))*(1 - sum(m^(1:(n-1)))/(sum(m^(1:n)))*0.005))
8. Calculate:
 (1-(init*m^n*r - 0.0005)/(init*m^n*r))*100

This is the percentage of winnings lost to fees after an expected win (after n losses in a row). If this is too high, choose either higher max or lower number of bets and try again.


Warning: This strategy will only prevent you losing more than a maximum amount in the same order of magnitude as the one you selected. There's a lot of variance in the game, and sometimes you may lose much more - especially if p > 0.5 or your maximum is large. It works quite well with small maximum btc amounts.

For example, playing a the price multiplier = 8x  game, wanting to bet 100 times and wanting to lose a maximum of 1 btc, not taking into account fees or returns on losses:


1. r = 8
2. bets = 100
3. max = 1 btc
4. p = 8000/65536, q = 1 - p
5. m = 1 / (1 - 1 / r)
6. n = round(-log (bets * p + 1) / log( q ))
7. init = max / sum( m ^ ( 1 : n ) )
8. % fee loss = (1-(init * m ^ n * r - 0.0005)/(init * m ^ n * r)) * 100


then
m = 1.142857
init = 0.009294345
% fee loss = 0.04653956%

As above, with fees and return on loss:

7. init = max / sum( m ^ ( 1 : n ) )
8. % fee loss = (1-(init * m ^ n * r - 0.0005)/(init * m ^ n * r)) * 100

then
m = 1.142857
init = 0.009241403
% fee loss = 0.04680618%

Below are some simulations of martingale betting on Satoshi Dice using the strategy  outlined in this post. They show the usefulness of the strategy when you use a low max, as compared with the standard nightingale (start with 1btc, double each time you lose).

Courtesy of organofcorti but i wouldent mind some BTC for pointing you in the right direction -->https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94481.0

[blockage]

I made a Moneypot account with the username MadZ, deposit address 1LnQYjwRhsZkp21jaMx6PNJynBw6w2BrKR, thanks!

Sent you 0.05: 8983f965ddd3d6e5b42a4b035f6b3072ff4984ce726f13a6b687e79260fa3ada

and added 0.1 to blockage's account. If someone can beat his solution, I'll give them 0.1 as well.

Thanks a lot!

[thompete]

Best way to win 1 BTC is not to do anything .Money saved is money won

[coinableS]

Really? The strategy that won was make 1 bet of 0.0001010101 BTC @ 9900x?   Is it just me or does it seem that using expected value (EV) is not a good way strategize with dice betting?

[Minnlo]

Really? The strategy that won was make 1 bet of 0.0001010101 BTC @ 9900x?   Is it just me or does it seem that using expected value (EV) is not a good way strategize with dice betting?

Yup, and thus OP admitted he should have used "probability to win 1 btc" to assess the strategies.

According to these conditions, maximal EV with 1 BTC bankroll attempting to win 1 BTC is achieved by making 1 bet of 0.0001010101 BTC @ 9900x.

You're right, my language was pretty poorly picked. I should have said: "Maximizing the probability to win 1 BTC" as opposed to "Maximizing the EV".  Your bet does however does use fractions of a satosishis, so I'll give you 0.05 if you tell me your MP Account or bitcoin address.

The core question is still open, and for the people who suggested martingale betting sequences, I'll writes some code to figure out the probabilities a bit later.

[FanEagle]

If it was me I would still use the method I said to win that.
There is no more pleasure than risking in gambling, it's my philosophy.
I never been unsatisfied from 60% bets, maybe I've been pretty lucky tho.

[Candystripes]

I am still a bit positive that my method beats all of yours:

1.12x payout. You start with a base bet of 0.01. You bet like this:

0.01
0.011
0.0121
0.01331

Then do it all again. At any point if you lose a bet, you do 5x the bet. NOT 10x as people normally do. Example:

-0.01
-0.05
.25 bet (win 0.0275 or so).

[nikona]

Compare any gambling strategy to simply holding 1 Bitcoin for 6 months.  Chances are best you will double your money that way.

lol..the money is close to becoming half about these days..!

[ndnh]

The best way to win 1 BTC from 1 BTC?

1. Go to Satoshidice.com You have 5 leaderboard prizes. 2*0.05 and 3*0.1 (currently undergoing maintenance)

Go on betting 0.001BTC@98% chance (max possible) till you have the highest winning streak. Need around 200 win rolls to be secure. You will get 0.1BTC/day. (Safe. Time consuming)

Go on betting 0.001BTC @ 0.25% or around that till you win. You will get another 0.1BTC prize a day. (A little risky)

Like this, you will get some 1BTC in around 1 to 10 days.

2. Lend trusted members 10% interest, for collateral. Repeat 10 times.

3. Go to FortuneJack.com. Top 2 of the 10 leaderboards with lowest competition like Bingo, etc. Done. (You can get up to 5BTC a week (assuming you can win only one prize in a leader board))

[malzahar]

the best way is going based on a small principal, and increase it on what you know.

eg: 0.1 - but needed to win 10 times in a row.

[Aaron2dc71]

remove gambling from your choices by that the risk of losing money will be less, you can lend to users here at the forum to earn some %

[febriyana]

Just change chance to 2x, choose ALL IN, choose HIGH, and then pray for your BTC 

[Madern]

Just change chance to 2x, choose ALL IN, choose HIGH, and then pray for your BTC 

10x bets u will be good to go

[pozmu]

Interesting topic.
I had some luck using this pattern:

Play about 1/20 of your bankroll @ 66%
If you lose two times then double your stake and win at least two times.
If you're winning then randomly double your stake and play two - three times.

[Nobitcoin]

I say play Blackjack and when the dealer hits Blackjack go all in next hand.

[ndnh]

I say play Blackjack and when the dealer hits Blackjack go all in next hand.

That is worse than doing a martingale. Just two losses and you are out?

I have got around 2 dealer BJs in a row and a 20 all 3 lost or similar to that a couple of times

[galbros]

There are sites that allow you to invest, just-dice was the most famous but has now converted to clam.  But the dice.me family of sites allow investment.  If you are not in any rush to double your coins that gives you 90% of the house edge.  If you like minefield games diggit.io also has an investment option.

Conceptually what you are trying to do is reduce the variance of the results from gambling enough to give you a chance to get up 1 btc before succumbing to the house edge.  This is why blockage's solution is a good one.  I think the finance folks call it value at risk, by betting a very small amount at high odds you have a chance to achieve your goal without exposing all your bankroll to one loss.

Good Luck!

[funtotry]

I haven't really been following the thread lately but did the OP do any bets and did he win or lose his 1btc?

[sherbyspark]

Martingale on Sports betting super safe parlay bets.
I have almost never failed, but I only do it with small amounts however

[caga]

I haven't really been following the thread lately but did the OP do any bets and did he win or lose his 1btc?

He wasn't looking to make the bet, but was simply looking for the best way to make or double 1 bTC

[elephantas1]

Lend the amount in the Lending section. And over time you will be able to double your bankroll. but there is nothing good for get rich quick.

that would take waaay too much time i would better do ponzis or hyips instead or just make 2x dice roll

[philiveyjr]

tail some good sports betting guy.. I think thats the fastest way..

[jinxx]

best way to win is take a smaller principal and work your way up. or just take the 1 bet 50% chance.

[karthus]

you can try doing at 90% winning x10 times. but you gotta have some sense of patterns.

[kassadin]

id say just gamble it at primedice and test your luck with a couple pre-rolls before betting.

[dooglus]

Strategy 1:
You're always playing 9900x using a martingale sequence, i.e. your wager for each round is

Code:

ceiling((2 - PLAYER_BR)/9899,1e-8)

you run out of funds after 6861 bets. You lose all of them with a probability of

Code:

0.9999^6861 = 0.5035187605260536

or put differently you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

Strategy 2:
You're constantly playing 20203 satoshi but increase the payout each round by exactly 1x starting at 4951x which will leave you with 1.00004850 BTC profit. You run out of funds after 4949 games and your last payout will be 9899x. You lose all of them with a probability of

Code:

prod(1-0.99/i, i=4949..9899) = 0.5035283796177312

leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.

I Hope the math is correct  

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

       chance  multiplier      
        1.0664% 92.83570893x    
                  
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065
 4     0.01124861  0.03302406  1.00000001
 5     0.01137110  0.04427267  1.00000036
 6     0.01149492  0.05564377  1.00000036
 7     0.01162009  0.06713869  1.00000051
 8     0.01174662  0.07875878  1.00000040
 9     0.01187453  0.09050540  1.00000048
10     0.01200383  0.10237993  1.00000031
11     0.01213454  0.11438376  1.00000032
12     0.01226667  0.12651830  1.00000004
13     0.01240025  0.13878497  1.00000078
14     0.01253527  0.15118522  1.00000019
15     0.01267177  0.16372049  1.00000049
16     0.01280975  0.17639226  1.00000021
17     0.01294924  0.18920201  1.00000063
18     0.01309024  0.20215125  1.00000022
19     0.01323278  0.21524149  1.00000024
20     0.01337687  0.22847427  1.00000007
21     0.01352254  0.24185114  1.00000091
22     0.01366978  0.25537368  1.00000026
23     0.01381863  0.26904346  1.00000022
24     0.01396910  0.28286209  1.00000011
25     0.01412121  0.29683119  1.00000014
26     0.01427498  0.31095240  1.00000051
27     0.01443042  0.32522738  1.00000047
28     0.01458755  0.33965780  1.00000020
29     0.01474640  0.35424535  1.00000075
30     0.01490697  0.36899175  1.00000041
31     0.01506929  0.38389872  1.00000021
32     0.01523338  0.39896801  1.00000024
33     0.01539926  0.41420139  1.00000057
34     0.01556694  0.42960065  1.00000032
35     0.01573645  0.44516759  1.00000045
36     0.01590780  0.46090404  1.00000005
37     0.01608102  0.47681184  1.00000003
38     0.01625613  0.49289286  1.00000036
39     0.01643314  0.50914899  1.00000007
40     0.01661208  0.52558213  1.00000001
41     0.01679297  0.54219421  1.00000009
42     0.01697583  0.55898718  1.00000020
43     0.01716068  0.57596301  1.00000020
44     0.01734755  0.59312369  1.00000086
45     0.01753644  0.61047124  1.00000016
46     0.01772740  0.62800768  1.00000067
47     0.01792043  0.64573508  1.00000031
48     0.01811557  0.66365551  1.00000070
49     0.01831283  0.68177108  1.00000065
50     0.01851224  0.70008391  1.00000077
51     0.01871382  0.71859615  1.00000078
52     0.01891759  0.73730997  1.00000032
53     0.01912359  0.75622756  1.00000088
54     0.01933182  0.77535115  1.00000024
55     0.01954233  0.79468297  1.00000076
56     0.01975512  0.81422530  1.00000015
57     0.01997024  0.83398042  1.00000073
58     0.02018769  0.85395066  1.00000016
59     0.02040752  0.87413835  1.00000072
60     0.02062973  0.89454587  1.00000001
61     0.02085437  0.91517560  1.00000025
62     0.02108146  0.93602997  1.00000085
63     0.02131101  0.95711143  1.00000028
64     0.02154307  0.97842244  1.00000067
                   0.99996551        

Edit: and the calculations showing that it works for the first 5 bets:

>>> 0.01088902 * (99/1.0664 - 1)
1.0000008712228057
>>> 0.01100759 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902
1.0000008112303074
>>> 0.01112745 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759
1.0000006493023257
>>> 0.01124861 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745
1.0000000137959488
>>> 0.01137110 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 - 0.01124861
1.0000003597824456

Edit2: I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.

[magicmexican]

tail some good sports betting guy.. I think thats the fastest way..

Probably this. I make about 4-4,5 units on average per week from betting. Using a 50 units bankroll you will need to make 50 units to double up, so it will take about 11-12 weeks.

Perphaps not as fast as some would like, however chances of going broke are close to non-existant, compared to wasting your time trying to figure out the "best" way to lose your money playing negative Ev games.

[funtotry]

But guys please understand that you can never beat the numbers. If there was a strategy to guaranteed win 2x or even be in the profit, casinos would be out of business and couldn't run since they couldn't maintain a neutral or positive profit over time. Best way is 2x 50/50 chance either you win or you don't. Slower way is to compound loan. Lend out 1 btc, get a return, lend out the 1 btc plus return, do that for a while and you will eventually hit your 2btc.

[dooglus]

But guys please understand that you can never beat the numbers.

It's a pretty simple question:

What strategy on a "standard dice site" has the highest chance of turning 1 BTC into 2 BTC?

Not "how can we beat the numbers?"
Not "what team should we bet on?"
Not "what is your favourite strategy?"

The question is pretty clear, and I'm amazed how many people seem to have failed to understand it.

If there was a strategy to guaranteed win 2x or even be in the profit, casinos would be out of business and couldn't run since they couldn't maintain a neutral or positive profit over time.

OK, so you're saying the best you can do is less than 100% chance? At least we have an upper bound on it now.

Best way is 2x 50/50 chance either you win or you don't.

Well, that's not an option. The dice site has a 1% edge, so you can get 2x at 49.5% or 1.98x at 50%. 2x at 50/50 would be a 0% edge. Also it has been shown above that you can do better than a single 2x bet.

Slower way is to compound loan.

Again, that's not allowed. The question states that you have to play on the dice site.

[activebiz]

do 1.2 multiplier bet with 0.01 if loose increase bet 6x if loose twice. return to base if ur lucky ull a some quick profits.

[dooglus]

do 1.2 multiplier bet with 0.01 if loose increase bet 6x if loose twice. return to base if ur lucky ull a some quick profits.

I think the optimal strategy is the one which expects to risk the least in total, since you expect to lose 1% of everything you risk.

To win 1 BTC betting with a 1.2x multiplier you need to risk at least 5 BTC, and you can expect to lose at least 5 times as much as a simple all-in with 2x multiplier (since that way you only risk 1 BTC in total).

[Alphabit]

Bet on over 0.5 goals in soccer games, look at the h2h statistics and pick carefully. The odds are usually 1.1 and you need a couple of bets.

Agree with you here on the sports betting generally speaking. The fundamental thing is the house cant manipulate the results, they only have control of the odds. Selecting the right betting strategy after proper analysis can work in your favor. I am speaking from experience.

[Tongkar]

Best way give it to cowbay and wait for the 50000x multiplier and bam double your bitcoin. And if no one else understands my strategy ryan will.

Cheers

If I win add here nick1234

[avw1982]

Just put the 1BTC on red with Roulette and hope for the best.

[bitllionaire]

1 BTC to 2x in dice and pray to win

[james777]

  Count cards at blackjack table... 

[jmurjeff]

Count cards at blackjack table... 

Then you are probably playing live and not for BTC. I don't think you can count online because they all use a continuous shuffle I believe.

[dooglus]

Then you are probably playing live and not for BTC. I don't think you can count online because they all use a continuous shuffle I believe.

Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.

[jmurjeff]

Then you are probably playing live and not for BTC. I don't think you can count online because they all use a continuous shuffle I believe.

Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.

They do not take players from NJ.

[activebiz]

u can use blackjack strategy depending on the dealer u should make more than 1 btc.

[fox19891989]

u can use blackjack strategy depending on the dealer u should make more than 1 btc.

It is still difficult to double the money from Blackjack, even I used the strategy book, sometimes I got 19-20, the dealer got 21, even if I played in a provably fair casino.

Too tough to earn money from the casino.

I get the better way is to play texas holdem, player vs player game is better, 50% to 50% odds, but it requires more skills, courage and luck.

[Wendigo]

What is that strategy book that you mentioned in the above post?

[dooglus]

What is that strategy book that you mentioned in the above post?

Try this:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/calculator/

[fox19891989]

What is that strategy book that you mentioned in the above post?

Try this:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/calculator/

Yeah, the one dooglus gave it to you.

If you strictly follow the strategy book, a fair casino still has 0.4%-0.6% house edge.

The more number of the decks, the higher house edge is. One deck is lowest, 8-deck BJ is highest.

You can copy that, you can even see that while you are playing in the real casino.

[steven.G999]

I personally will make a bet on sports, making parlay with 2 odds, and choose a team that is sure to win in the game. you can try it on direcbet, there has a pretty safe bet option.

[fox19891989]

I personally will make a bet on sports, making parlay with 2 odds, and choose a team that is sure to win in the game. you can try it on direcbet, there has a pretty safe bet option.

Sport betting is not easy, many games are unexpected.

The latest example is Arsenal lost the game against Monaco, I think many people lost money on this bet.  

I had free bet on that game, but I lost the free btc, damn.. Arsenal disappointed me.

[Wendigo]

Thank you for the sharing of that website I am going to check it out and use for reference when trying to blackjack successfully 

[bitfilliates]

Do 2x max bet. You have the same chance of winning as if you use a so called "strategy"

[Minnlo]

Do 2x max bet. You have the same chance of winning as if you use a so called "strategy"

Not really the same chance. A 2x bet gives you 49.5% success rate while dooglus's strategy in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=939776.msg10529739#msg10529739 gives you 49.65% success rate. The difference is very small, but still it is better.

[fox19891989]

Thank you for the sharing of that website I am going to check it out and use for reference when trying to blackjack successfully 

No, if you just follow that rule, you still lose money because there is 0.6% house edge there, the only way you can beat casino blackjack is counting cards, but many big casinos use continuous shuffle machine to shuffle.

The machine costs 10k USD, so not everyone casino has it. Dude, not easy to earn money from fair casinos, but it may happen when you have good luck.   

[Ingatqhvq]

There are lots of ways  to lost 1 BTC with 1 BTC.
 
I think the chance to lost is much bigger  than win.

[twicezeroiszero]

I would change the seed first then bet all in on 2x and hope.

[omahapoker]

put 1btc on black on roulette.





you can thank me with a big steak dinner

[steven.G999]

I personally will make a bet on sports, making parlay with 2 odds, and choose a team that is sure to win in the game. you can try it on direcbet, there has a pretty safe bet option.

Sport betting is not easy, many games are unexpected.

The latest example is Arsenal lost the game against Monaco, I think many people lost money on this bet.  

I had free bet on that game, but I lost the free btc, damn.. Arsenal disappointed me.

Monaco is a pretty good team, yes of course arsenal could lose as well. I mean is that you choose the odds of 1.2 or 1.1. like barceloba vs. elche, it has convinced barcelona win. essentially you choose considerable odds ratio between 1.1 vs 16 or greater.

you know what I mean?

[BTCBLOGGER]

PM sent with a TIP ME Quote

[Sarahiko]

The best way to win is not to bet at all, or bet it all and forget about it if you lose, chances are you might win big that is gambling.
or as the other fellow said you can hold on to it and see if it doubles the value in 6 months cheers. 

[neoneros]

Use the 1 BTC to setup a diceroll site and put some in advertising, though I must warn you, you might end up with more than double your BTC

If your personality is low enough you could set up a site btc-fail.com and promise people that if they upgrade they will have a ROI of their investment within a week, and then after six days pull the plug. Aigain, you might end up with more than double your btc


You could on moneypot set an autobet on 1 s x 1.01   it might take ages, but it will be benificial

[cazkooo]

The best way to win is not to bet at all, or bet it all and forget about it if you lose, chances are you might win big that is gambling.
or as the other fellow said you can hold on to it and see if it doubles the value in 6 months cheers. 

or it can be nothing after 6 months, there is never a guarantee, this is about best way to win 1 btc, not about holding some btc and wait for 6 months old

[Wendigo]

Maybe parlay Bayern Munich and Barcelona next games to be over 3 goals and probably you will win big 

[steven.G999]

Maybe parlay Bayern Munich and Barcelona next games to be over 3 goals and probably you will win big 

yeahh real madrid is also nice, Real Madrid v Levante. over 3 goals especially madrid playing at home

[JimClone]

Forget dice to much like Russian roulette. Play Blackjack at Coinroyale you have better odds of winning.

[djibrilantiuang]

too risky bet 1 btc, if i have 5 btc, i'll place sportsbook.
place some parlay there, and gothca. you burned down as usual lol.
the best way to collect 1 btc is just buy miner hardware.

[avw1982]

Maybe parlay Bayern Munich and Barcelona next games to be over 3 goals and probably you will win big 

Bayern plays like a predator the last games so many goals.

[philiveyjr]

It is not very hard to do it..but may require some luck n loads of skill..It is easy to make money on sports betting if u can see the good picks n value picks right. Like yesterday Bayern Munich was a easy pick @ 1.14x n they won the match easily 7-0.. n then was OKC vs Clippers.. was getting 3.5x.. That was good value for Clips.! Both won.!

[98problems]

do 20x multiplier bets with 0.1.. its just win or loss.. no guaranteed profit on gambling i guess

no offence but i think thats one of the worse decision you can make to try and win 2x you balance all in on 50 percent is the best

[steven.G999]

Maybe parlay Bayern Munich and Barcelona next games to be over 3 goals and probably you will win big 

Bayern plays like a predator the last games so many goals.

bayern munchen very familiar with the number 7, they had several times scoring 7 goals to the opponent and you can see evidence of this http://prntscr.com/6g3s14 

[Madafaka]

use 1 btc to trading alt coin, but its needed patience.
if you want instant, just place sportsbook like everyone said.

[Alphabit]

It is not very hard to do it..but may require some luck n loads of skill..It is easy to make money on sports betting if u can see the good picks n value picks right. Like yesterday Bayern Munich was a easy pick @ 1.14x n they won the match easily 7-0.. n then was OKC vs Clippers.. was getting 3.5x.. That was good value for Clips.! Both won.!

Agree a 1000 percent on that. Although all are gambling, sports betting has proven to be more strategic and safer choice.

[fox19891989]

It is not very hard to do it..but may require some luck n loads of skill..It is easy to make money on sports betting if u can see the good picks n value picks right. Like yesterday Bayern Munich was a easy pick @ 1.14x n they won the match easily 7-0.. n then was OKC vs Clippers.. was getting 3.5x.. That was good value for Clips.! Both won.!

Hello, Phil Ivey     I think the best way to double 1B is to play poker, don't you agree?

Since I play freerolls, I have earned 0.1btc from freerolls. Poker freeroll is a safe way to make money.

But NL holdem is different.

[picolo]

The best way to win is not to bet at all, or bet it all and forget about it if you lose, chances are you might win big that is gambling.
or as the other fellow said you can hold on to it and see if it doubles the value in 6 months cheers. 

Or bet on something with a change to have a positive edge.

[erpbridge]

I have actually been gambling by only betting on Sports. Even though I agree that including poker its the best way to gamble, I feel without proper bankroll management even the good pickers mess up. I have in the past bet my entire bank roll on matches that were clear favourites to win but lost because my player lost in the 3rd set. So as long as you can do proper bankroll management like poker, then with sports betting it is comparatively easier to recover the 1 BTC with 1 BTC.

[adaseb]

Yes the strageties about dice sites are all useless because the edge is exactly the same.

You can win more just buy finding a dice site with a smaller edge but your odds are pretty much the same.

[shanem]

I think the best way to earn 1 BTC with 1 BTC is buying altcoins that crashed a lot on high volume and sell it during the dead cat bounce. Martingale may work but you need to pray that you won't have too many consecutive losing streaks.

[arallmuus]

I think the best way to earn 1 BTC with 1 BTC is buying altcoins that crashed a lot on high volume and sell it during the dead cat bounce. Martingale may work but you need to pray that you won't have too many consecutive losing streaks.

this will actually be the worst case scenario, because there isnt always a guarantee that once an altcoin crash, it will bounce back higher, it could go deeper as to be worthless and delisted from an exchanger soon after that ( happened to alot altcoins already)

[rayhan]

what should i do for won 1 btc with 1 btc ?
dont know, i guess only with gambling, but this is serious i feel shaky if directly bring 1 bitcoin in gambling sites .. i never carry that much but I've got 1 bitcoin with little bitcoin
well. i will be playing dice in coinroyal, once in a while roullete as well

[ticoti]

my bet would be dice, 2x that's 49.5% to win 1 bitcoin and quick

[kattekop]

Here's an article on how to ALWAYS win in betting, using 'sure bets':
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting
http://www.onlinebookmakers.co/arbitrage-betting-explained.html

See, you lose at one side but you win at the other side.. A bit of calculation is involved.

[Ingatqhvq]

Here's an article on how to ALWAYS win in betting, using 'sure bets':
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting
http://www.onlinebookmakers.co/arbitrage-betting-explained.html

See, you lose at one side but you win at the other side.. A bit of calculation is involved.

If everyone use this strategy, then this way should be invalid.
Gambling should be for fun, you can't expect  to be rich by gambling.

[Chemistry1988]

Here's an article on how to ALWAYS win in betting, using 'sure bets':
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting
http://www.onlinebookmakers.co/arbitrage-betting-explained.html

See, you lose at one side but you win at the other side.. A bit of calculation is involved.

If everyone use this strategy, then this way should be invalid.
Gambling should be for fun, you can't expect  to be rich by gambling.

It is just like arbitraging on different exchanges. When people find and take the arbitrage opportunity, the odds on different sports books (bitcoin price in the case of exchanges) will move closer and closer, and very soon the gap will be gone.

[DiscoverCebu]

My autobet strat is a bit near-yolo as the 2x itself but here it is.
Base bet-0.01(a bit near 0.007-9 would do as well)
Multiplier- 2.5x
On loss- 100%
And if you're lucky you will get 1BTC after 50-100 rolls.

[jpouza]

My autobet strat is a bit near-yolo as the 2x itself but here it is.
Base bet-0.01(a bit near 0.007-9 would do as well)
Multiplier- 2.5x
On loss- 100%
And if you're lucky you will get 1BTC after 50-100 rolls.

Interesting math, will try this out some day.

[deadlyunknown]

Easiest way, go to a site that offers x2, go 1 coin all in, then wait for the results.

[joksim299]

Easiest way, go to a site that offers x2, go 1 coin all in, then wait for the results.

Easiest but not the best way,we are looking for best way.

[twicezeroiszero]

HEll stick it in a new ponzi or play dice at 50/50 roll hi.

[FanEagle]

Ponzi, best way to get scammed, you really love to hurt yourself.

[rizkyhiw]

do you mean the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC in just dice website? or in every single bitcoin gambling sites?

if you mean in every bitcoin gambling sites and my main daily strategy like this :

1. 0.1 go play on satoshimines , play on 5 mines. hit once and withdraw it.
2. 0.1 go play on diggit.io , play on 5 mines too. hit once and withdraw it.


just play it once a day.

[joksim299]

do you mean the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC in just dice website? or in every single bitcoin gambling sites?

if you mean in every bitcoin gambling sites and my main daily strategy like this :

1. 0.1 go play on satoshimines , play on 5 mines. hit once and withdraw it.
2. 0.1 go play on diggit.io , play on 5 mines too. hit once and withdraw it.


just play it once a day.

And you will probably hit a mine very soon before making any profit.
Can you mathematically support this method?

[rizkyhiw]

do you mean the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC in just dice website? or in every single bitcoin gambling sites?

if you mean in every bitcoin gambling sites and my main daily strategy like this :

1. 0.1 go play on satoshimines , play on 5 mines. hit once and withdraw it.
2. 0.1 go play on diggit.io , play on 5 mines too. hit once and withdraw it.


just play it once a day.

And you will probably hit a mine very soon before making any profit.
Can you mathematically support this method?

that's true because we are talking about gambling, there is always something to risk.
and you shouldn't expect always win, why? because you are not a bookie.
to cover 0.1 when it goes to lost i do like this :

1. bet randomly with small amount, in 24 mines.
2. get back to 5 mines and do 0.4, hit once and it would be 0.496.

it is working for me.

[BTCevo]

HEll stick it in a new ponzi or play dice at 50/50 roll hi.

Rather than do ponzi better yolo your 1 btc, you will have 50% chance to double it rather than wasting your money that will lose in the end of the time. Ponzi is always scammed, I never find that ponzi will profit to me, I dont know with others but most of them will have a same side on me

[WhatTheGox]

Seems like surely betting one time is the best way to go to limit your house edge exposure the most.  Did anyone come up with a better solution during this whole thread?

[elite3000]

HEll stick it in a new ponzi or play dice at 50/50 roll hi.

I'd rather go roll at 50/50 on a dice than investing on ponzi, there's much higher risk on ponzis than playing on dice sites. Additionally, I don't invest my btc on scammers

[shanem]

I rather bet on sports than waste my time play dice with the 1 BTC. For some reason, dice games seem ' rigged ' to me. Whenever I play big, I have a very high chance of losing.

[nickaizoku]

I rather bet on sports than waste my time play dice with the 1 BTC. For some reason, dice games seem ' rigged ' to me. Whenever I play big, I have a very high chance of losing.

I rather bet that 1btc on 80 winning chance. 2 times
And back again another for 2 times 80%

[ndnh]

The less riskiest way to do it is:

1. Pick a dice site with the LOWEST house edge for a bet profit of 1BTC.
2. Roll 1BTC at 2x.

Done.


For say a dice site of 0.1% edge, it would only be 0.001BTC house edge.


It is actually the BEST strategy there and of course still negative EV but the only thing wrong with it is, it takes the fun part out.

[wearepoor]

This was i was following long back but it was working sometime. You can play about 1/20 of your bankroll at 65 percentage and if you lose two times then double your stake and win minimum two times. if this happen then you are on right track and if you're winning then randomly double your stake and play two - three times. I hope this will be work for you also.

[leex1528]

I think you are probably best yolo.  I think that will have the highest value return.  You could also try rolling .1 at 10x, hit once and you are done.  I imagine you could hit once in 10 rolls, but if you hit it on the 10th you are back at 1BTC. 

Your best bet: YOLO

[ndnh]

Easiest way, go to a site that offers x2, go 1 coin all in, then wait for the results.

Easiest but not the best way,we are looking for best way.

It is the easiest and the best way too.

Some people don't see it because it is difficult to get a faulty impression that it is +EV while other strategies might confuse the player into thinking so.


The less the house edge the better. and more promos the better.
AFAIK, there are Moneypot apps with 0.1% edge (not sure if it still is applicable for 1 BTC bets). There are also other sites like Rollin which offers less than 1% edge depending on levels and also running wagering competitions.

[poplolnman]

The less riskiest way to do it is:

1. Pick a dice site with the LOWEST house edge for a bet profit of 1BTC.
2. Roll 1BTC at 2x.

Done.


For say a dice site of 0.1% edge, it would only be 0.001BTC house edge.


It is actually the BEST strategy there and of course still negative EV but the only thing wrong with it is, it takes the fun part out.

I may agree with this simply strategy ndhc, don't need mathematically strategy but the question is where the lowest house edge gambling site with 0.1 house? Mostly had 1% house. Also i believe in the end your luck determine your win 

[Dennis7777]

I may agree with this simply strategy ndhc, don't need mathematically strategy but the question is where the lowest house edge gambling site with 0.1 house? Mostly had 1% house. Also i believe in the end your luck determine your win 

Sharpdice has a house edge of ~0.1% on smaller bets, and has a higher house edge when the bet size goes up. At 1 btc or 1000000 bits, the win chance for a x2 bet is 49.89%, so the house edge would be 0.22%.

[katerniko1]

0.01 on 100x i think if your lucky you can hit it twice in 100 rolls.
but everything depends on luck
regards.
-Katerniko1

[chennan]

0.01 on 100x i think if your lucky you can hit it twice in 100 rolls.
but everything depends on luck
regards.
-Katerniko1

I actually think this is the best way to go about playing dice... bet low with very low odds of winning so your winnings will be 1000X more... better than slowly losing over time, than to just risk it all over a couple of bets which could pay out big time.

[knowhow]

Well im confused and well why to trought away 1 btc into the dice games ? Why not to choose others methods as altcoins,i understand you wanna to double it but i guess you choosing the fast way to loose it .

[Chemistry1988]

The less riskiest way to do it is:

1. Pick a dice site with the LOWEST house edge for a bet profit of 1BTC.
2. Roll 1BTC at 2x.

Done.


For say a dice site of 0.1% edge, it would only be 0.001BTC house edge.


It is actually the BEST strategy there and of course still negative EV but the only thing wrong with it is, it takes the fun part out.

Regarding step 2, making one single all-in bet is a very good strategy but it is in fact NOT the best strategy. Take a look at dooglus' post in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=939776.60 and you will see an example constructed assuming a 1% house edge that gives the player a winning chance of 49.649% (compared with 49.5% in a single all-in bet with 1% house edge).

[Superhitech]

0.01 on 100x i think if your lucky you can hit it twice in 100 rolls.
but everything depends on luck
regards.
-Katerniko1

I actually think this is the best way to go about playing dice... bet low with very low odds of winning so your winnings will be 1000X more... better than slowly losing over time, than to just risk it all over a couple of bets which could pay out big time.

The odds are actually very close whether you bet one big bet or martingale/small slow bets. Really it comes down to if you want a long period of entertainment or not.

[mtnsaa]

This is what I did some weeks ago with a smaller amount, it was about 0.1 BTC I think but in another cryptocurrency. I had it in a dice wallet and as I had to transfer it to my main one and then back to BTC so I thought what the hell, let's try to double it. I'm not a betting guy, that's very important since you have to be very cold and be prepared to lose it all.

The strategy may have been mentioned before and it's very simple: Bet 50%, if you win, you're out (I know that's not your goal, but you can try again next day or when you feel like it) if you lose, try again to regain the money (now you reallly are at risk of lose it all).

I've won on the first play and never gamble it again. So if you are lucky you would have 1.5 BTC, bet again in the next days to achieve your goal or go back to square one. It's basically like playing it all at once, but with a safety net, you won't be dead if you lose it all in the first play. You also avoid exposure to the house edge.

All other systems that require hundreds of bets are useless when you consider the house edge, you'll LOSE. Setting up some rules and limits like this will clear your head and you won't be exposed in the heat of the moment.

[dinda22]

looks simple, but you can also lose more quickly. yeah playing dice with odds x2, before you bet 1BTC maybe you can fish numbers with small bets

[panjul07]

0.01 on 100x i think if your lucky you can hit it twice in 100 rolls.
but everything depends on luck
regards.
-Katerniko1

I have tried those method and I hit 100x more than twice in 100rolls but on other day I tried the same and I did not hit in 500rolls even once. So yes, its all about luck.

[coinableS]

Wait for a decent price move with momentum and bet 1 BTC on secondstrade binary options. I've been having pretty good luck lately playing with the binary trading. I haven't bet a whole BTC though, I'm not a highroller  Better than just random luck with dice in my opinion.

[knowhow]

Well those method is much more risky ,but well the prediction can turn into 75% more with lower risk then dice ,or similiar risk,anyway .

[rizkyhiw]

0.01 on 100x i think if your lucky you can hit it twice in 100 rolls.
but everything depends on luck
regards.
-Katerniko1

"if lucky" it's not make sense to math, luck can not be calculated.
so it was clearly enough that it's not the right way or a strategy at all.
the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC for me is play minesweeper in satoshimines once using 5 mines hit once too and withdraw your chance to win almost 70%.
do it again in dice sites. once per one dice site on 70% chance to win.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

You need to minimise your risk so I'd advise against making multiple smaller bets because you're likely to mess up that way.

My idea could fail too but I'd make a single bet on something quite likely that offers smaller odds.

So for example I'd bet on a football/soccer match by picking a strong team at home to beat a smaller team. E.g. Man City to beat Norwich at the Etihad. You might get 'evens' as your betting odds so bet 1 bitcoin & if Man City win you win back your stake + another 1 bitcoin. Simple right?

Or it could come crashing down & you lose but no gambling is certain.

[leex1528]

The best way you can actually do this is to bet 1BTC at 2x.  Hope for the best.  There are no strategies that actually work like that.  If there is a bounty for telling you what the best way is please send to me now:)

[birdcat90]

to win 1 btc with 1 btc...i will try to use 90% chance for 10x rolls on dice with increase on loss 10x...

do it in sequences..10 rolls change seeds and so on until it hit 1 btc...

[dooglus]

Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).

When does this competition end? The best 3 strategies I've seen so far, in reverse order, are:

leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.

you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

So do I win?

[RHavar]

So do I win?

Yeah, yours is the best so far ! But a couple weeks before you posted that, I had already given the bounty to blockage 

On a side note, most of the replies to this thread are pretty hilarious. Seems like people don't like reading

[dooglus]

So do I win?

Yeah, yours is the best so far ! But a couple weeks before you posted that, I had already given the bounty to blockage 

Yeah, but you also said:

added 0.1 to blockage's account. If someone can beat his solution, I'll give them 0.1 as well.

On a side note, most of the replies to this thread are pretty hilarious. Seems like people don't like reading

Most people aren't very good at following instructions. Your OP is pretty clear. You want to maximise the chance of doubling 1 BTC using a well-defined sequence of bets. I'm glad you find it hilarious. Personally it makes me feel hopeless.

[RHavar]

Yeah, but you also said:

added 0.1 to blockage's account. If someone can beat his solution, I'll give them 0.1 as well.

Ahh touché, forgot I wrote that. I can't remember if you own dooglus on mp or if that's an imposter, so I've credited the 0.1 btc to dooglus on bustabit. Enjoy!

[dooglus]

Ahh touché, forgot I wrote that. I can't remember if you own dooglus on mp or if that's an imposter, so I've credited the 0.1 btc to dooglus on bustabit. Enjoy!

Thanks! I own both accounts by the way.

[Erza]

Well im confused and well why to trought away 1 btc into the dice games ? Why not to choose others methods as altcoins,i understand you wanna to double it but i guess you choosing the fast way to loose it .

Because dice is the fastest way and the easiest way to get your money. Throw 1btc in dice games will lead you into doubling your balance if you know how to play it. Mostly people are using 1.xx multiplier with higher balance, this is safer than do martingale although sometimes you will lose too but you have earned it before you lose it so it is worth to try

[BTCevo]

to win 1 btc with 1 btc...i will try to use 90% chance for 10x rolls on dice with increase on loss 10x...

do it in sequences..10 rolls change seeds and so on until it hit 1 btc...

But that is pretty scary too, if I do that 90% chances of win I will do it for 10 days or may be 5. Earn 0.1 or 0.2 each day, this is better rather than get it all just in one day. Dice is always the scariest game ever 

[Hazir]

Well im confused and well why to trought away 1 btc into the dice games ? Why not to choose others methods as altcoins,i understand you wanna to double it but i guess you choosing the fast way to loose it .

Because dice is the fastest way and the easiest way to get your money. Throw 1btc in dice games will lead you into doubling your balance if you know how to play it. Mostly people are using 1.xx multiplier with higher balance, this is safer than do martingale although sometimes you will lose too but you have earned it before you lose it so it is worth to try

When it comes to gambling fastest not always is the best option. Unless, of course, you want to lose your money fast.
Dice is easy, but it is risky, there is nothing you can do to influence the outcome, martingale is fiction, other 'strategies' or dice 'hacks' are just gambler's superstition.

[Pursuer]

@OP
I see that you have created this topic nearly ten months ago. I just wanted to know if you have tried out any of these 9 pages of suggestions for a long time.
can you please add some info and personal experience with the strategies that you used in this period?

[shulio]

Well im confused and well why to trought away 1 btc into the dice games ? Why not to choose others methods as altcoins,i understand you wanna to double it but i guess you choosing the fast way to loose it .

Because dice is the fastest way and the easiest way to get your money. Throw 1btc in dice games will lead you into doubling your balance if you know how to play it. Mostly people are using 1.xx multiplier with higher balance, this is safer than do martingale although sometimes you will lose too but you have earned it before you lose it so it is worth to try

When it comes to gambling fastest not always is the best option. Unless, of course, you want to lose your money fast.
Dice is easy, but it is risky, there is nothing you can do to influence the outcome, martingale is fiction, other 'strategies' or dice 'hacks' are just gambler's superstition.

Yes its true it is risky thats why you need some self control, or may be you can set your max win and max loss with some strategy. Some strategy will not end you up in losing though. I ever play with some strategy that lead me into winning 300% from my balance. This would me great right. This is not supersition but its pure luck

[knowhow]

The fact that the investment being called high risky ,the main advantages of dices websites is that you can make some profit very fast same as loose fast,but well there is an %% that you can sucess,the other way to make it double is the hyips were the risk is 99.999% to loose all money invested,since all ponzi and will lead into a deep loss.I know several people plays dice i had tryed my self  free satoshis i were earning and well i try to go on a bet high all in and all losted i guess were the 49% ratio to win or loose.

[Aemon]

How are people calculating these odds?  I don't think it is possible to have anything better then a 2x bet at any dice site.  That should give you your best odds to actually win.

[Don.Corleone]

Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).

Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet.  Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize the chance of winning 1 BTC. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.

Let me start with the most obvious solution:


Bet 1 BTC @ 2x  ... which gives an EV of -0.01, and a chance of winning at 49.5%

You know want the easy one to make money?? I think no one  will open his tactic or tricks here in public for how he make or win money in gambling.. That was inlcuding me

[Xenoph0bia]

I think best and safest way to earn 1 btc is sports betting. If you have enough knowledge about any particular sport, if you are following any team or players then you can be in the position to predict the result. So as per me you can take a chance with sports betting as there are many chances to make some good profit.

[dooglus]

I don't think it is possible to have anything better then a 2x bet at any dice site.  That should give you your best odds to actually win.

What are you trying to say?

What would be "better" than a 2x bet? A 3x bet has a higher payout, but a 1.5x bet has a higher chance of winning. Which is better? Why is 2x "best"?

What do you mean by "best odds"?

It's hard to argue against what you say when what you say is too fuzzy to grasp onto, even though what you're trying to say is almost certainly incorrect.

[Omikifuse]

I don't think it is possible to have anything better then a 2x bet at any dice site.  That should give you your best odds to actually win.

What are you trying to say?

What would be "better" than a 2x bet? A 3x bet has a higher payout, but a 1.5x bet has a higher chance of winning. Which is better? Why is 2x "best"?

What do you mean by "best odds"?

It's hard to argue against what you say when what you say is too fuzzy to grasp onto, even though what you're trying to say is almost certainly incorrect.

The topic is about doubling your bitcoins, so I guess 2x is the minimum. I don't know any strategy that will lower the house edge(but some may increase or decrease the variance, but still hard)

Maybe try sport bets, if you don't know anything just follow Joca's advices(split your bets to be more sure)?

[Aemon]

I don't think it is possible to have anything better then a 2x bet at any dice site.  That should give you your best odds to actually win.

What are you trying to say?

What would be "better" than a 2x bet? A 3x bet has a higher payout, but a 1.5x bet has a higher chance of winning. Which is better? Why is 2x "best"?

What do you mean by "best odds"?

It's hard to argue against what you say when what you say is too fuzzy to grasp onto, even though what you're trying to say is almost certainly incorrect.

Errr, sorry for the miscommunication.  I am just thinking that wouldn't 2x payout give you the best chance of winning at 49.5 % with a 1% house edge?  Wouldn't that be the best expected value in return?  I am not good at math nor am I declaring I am, I just figured it would be the best strategy and could very well be wrong, I will admit it.  Let me know if that clears it up for you

[Mrs.Van.Braam]

Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).

Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet.  Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize the chance of winning 1 BTC. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.

Let me start with the most obvious solution:


Bet 1 BTC @ 2x  ... which gives an EV of -0.01, and a chance of winning at 49.5%

Hello sir, did you got what you looking for to make an ROI 100% as fast as we can in the world of gambling?

If  you really want to know it and anyone here want to know it. I can give you my personal tips and trick.. I have a valid prove based on statistic and my experience...  

Here my prove at Directbet.eu tipster competition, rite now im on 1st position with more than 200% ROI, leaving far behind the 2nd position that can make no more than 150% ROI.

My tips only base on global statistic and math.. If anyone of you interesting, pliss pm me, (i only need some tips to buy lunch)



Note: i can make it on sportsbook betting not on dice gambling

[dooglus]

Errr, sorry for the miscommunication.  I am just thinking that wouldn't 2x payout give you the best chance of winning at 49.5 % with a 1% house edge?  Wouldn't that be the best expected value in return?  I am not good at math nor am I declaring I am, I just figured it would be the best strategy and could very well be wrong, I will admit it.  Let me know if that clears it up for you

No, the expected value is -1% of everything you risk. If you bet 1 BTC at 49.5% your expected value is -0.01 BTC.

If you make smaller bets with a higher payout multiplier you can win the 1 BTC but expect to risk less and so your expected value will be higher (closer to zero).

See my post here which lays out such a sequence which gives you a 49.649% chance of doubling your bankroll, compared to the 49.5% chance offered by the single 2x bet you propose.

[RHavar]

See my post here which lays out such a sequence which gives you a 49.649% chance of doubling your bankroll, compared to the 49.5% chance offered by the single 2x bet you propose.

I think that's far too complex for most people to understand.

I think a simple 2 (non-recursive) step process is best to convince people it's even possible.


* Get half your bet (0.5 BTC) and bet at @  3x.
*  If you win (33%), you've made a profit of 1 BTC, and have terminated the sequence! Congratulations!
*  If you lost the first bet (67%), you'll still have 0.5 BTC. This time bet it at 4x  (to win back your loss from step 1, and make a net profit of 1 btc).
   *  If you win the second bet  (24.75%), you'll have made by your loss from the first bet, and be up 1 BTC, and terminated the sequence. Congratulations!
   *  If you lost the second bet (75.25%), you'll be out of money, and have terminated the sequence. Awww


So basically there's 3 possible outcomes:

1.  You won 1 BTC with 1 bet (33%)
2.  You won 1 BTC after 2 bets (67%*24.75% = 16.5825%)
3.  You lost 1 BTC by losing both bets (67%*75.25% = 50.4175%)


In other words, you have a 49.5825% of winning, compared to the traditional 49.5%!


(Or course, Dooglus' solution is better. But it works in pretty much exactly the same way by minimizing the amount you wager)

[Aemon]

Errr, sorry for the miscommunication.  I am just thinking that wouldn't 2x payout give you the best chance of winning at 49.5 % with a 1% house edge?  Wouldn't that be the best expected value in return?  I am not good at math nor am I declaring I am, I just figured it would be the best strategy and could very well be wrong, I will admit it.  Let me know if that clears it up for you

No, the expected value is -1% of everything you risk. If you bet 1 BTC at 49.5% your expected value is -0.01 BTC.

If you make smaller bets with a higher payout multiplier you can win the 1 BTC but expect to risk less and so your expected value will be higher (closer to zero).

See my post here which lays out such a sequence which gives you a 49.649% chance of doubling your bankroll, compared to the 49.5% chance offered by the single 2x bet you propose.

Thanks, nice post as well.  I gotta figure out some math skills to see how the heck you are calculating these things.  It seems so confusing to me but I haven't ever dealt with statistics.  It seems weird that a small chance of winning would present better odds at doubling your money, but like I said.  I do not know stats!

[hopenotlate]

Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.

Would you like to share why they banned you? were you winning too much? very curious about it

[dooglus]

Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.

Would you like to share why they banned you? were you winning too much? very curious about it

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91587.msg1018652#msg1018652

I was winning too much, but I was also reporting too many bugs, being too pedantic about stuff, and taking advantage of +EV offers. I was also referring friends to the site and the owner thought they weren't real people, even after having spoken to at least one of them on Skype with me.

[lorylore]

Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.

Would you like to share why they banned you? were you winning too much? very curious about it

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91587.msg1018652#msg1018652

I was winning too much, but I was also reporting too many bugs, being too pedantic about stuff, and taking advantage of +EV offers. I was also referring friends to the site and the owner thought they weren't real people, even after having spoken to at least one of them on Skype with me.

woa how u did that?? haha care to share what happen previously? and ur stragety???

[Erza]

Well im confused and well why to trought away 1 btc into the dice games ? Why not to choose others methods as altcoins,i understand you wanna to double it but i guess you choosing the fast way to loose it .

Because dice is the fastest way and the easiest way to get your money. Throw 1btc in dice games will lead you into doubling your balance if you know how to play it. Mostly people are using 1.xx multiplier with higher balance, this is safer than do martingale although sometimes you will lose too but you have earned it before you lose it so it is worth to try

When it comes to gambling fastest not always is the best option. Unless, of course, you want to lose your money fast.
Dice is easy, but it is risky, there is nothing you can do to influence the outcome, martingale is fiction, other 'strategies' or dice 'hacks' are just gambler's superstition.

Not everytime you will lose the money if you gambling. Yes it is fast but sometimes you will win though unless you are really bad at rolling dice. I know there is no strategy for dice game but martingale is good if you have a great balance to cover your loss

[hopenotlate]

Well im confused and well why to trought away 1 btc into the dice games ? Why not to choose others methods as altcoins,i understand you wanna to double it but i guess you choosing the fast way to loose it .

Because dice is the fastest way and the easiest way to get your money. Throw 1btc in dice games will lead you into doubling your balance if you know how to play it. Mostly people are using 1.xx multiplier with higher balance, this is safer than do martingale although sometimes you will lose too but you have earned it before you lose it so it is worth to try

When it comes to gambling fastest not always is the best option. Unless, of course, you want to lose your money fast.
Dice is easy, but it is risky, there is nothing you can do to influence the outcome, martingale is fiction, other 'strategies' or dice 'hacks' are just gambler's superstition.

Not everytime you will lose the money if you gambling. Yes it is fast but sometimes you will win though unless you are really bad at rolling dice. I know there is no strategy for dice game but martingale is good if you have a great balance to cover your loss

If you have a good balance martingale is the best way to lose it all 

[hopenotlate]

Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.

Would you like to share why they banned you? were you winning too much? very curious about it

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91587.msg1018652#msg1018652

I was winning too much, but I was also reporting too many bugs, being too pedantic about stuff, and taking advantage of +EV offers. I was also referring friends to the site and the owner thought they weren't real people, even after having spoken to at least one of them on Skype with me.

Thanks for answering and sharing the link.....both weird and funny story anyway

[neochiny]

Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).

Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet.  Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize the chance of winning 1 BTC. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.

Let me start with the most obvious solution:


Bet 1 BTC @ 2x  ... which gives an EV of -0.01, and a chance of winning at 49.5%

try pocket dice they have 100% deposit bonus so if you deposit 1btc youll get another but you have to
finish the wagered condition it may take several days but if finished it you`ll get the bonus. or whats left on your
btc on the game. what i do is to gain profit is, i bet under 10 i think it gives you 1.18x profit if you win, and you got your
desired amount you can finish the wagered condition, what i do is bet under 12 wich you can win a lot of time but gives you
1.01x profit.

[knowhow]

Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.

Would you like to share why they banned you? were you winning too much? very curious about it

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91587.msg1018652#msg1018652

I was winning too much, but I was also reporting too many bugs, being too pedantic about stuff, and taking advantage of +EV offers. I was also referring friends to the site and the owner thought they weren't real people, even after having spoken to at least one of them on Skype with me.

Thanks for answering and sharing the link.....both weird and funny story anyway

Well i had spent some time reading those topic and all i read where the user were counting cards and being able to profit from it,soo they find those and improved the game ,but well reporting the bugs on the casino and have a strategy will lead into a ban because the player is winning?Casinos has atleast their comission made by the players that loose and well being 1 or 5% the houses takes should be enought but oh well.
I consider gambling a huge risk to try to make 1 btc with 1 btc is insane to bet such hoping to get more and very fast.

[StevenLiang]

I have actually been gambling by only betting on Sports.
Even though I agree that including poker its the best way to gamble, I feel without proper bankroll management even the good pickers mess up.

I have in the past bet my entire bank roll on matches that were clear favourites to win but lost because my player lost in the 3rd set. So as long as you can do proper bankroll management like poker, then with sports betting it is comparatively easier to recover the 1 BTC with 1 BTC. IMO

Regards,

[dooglus]

I was winning too much, but I was also reporting too many bugs, being too pedantic about stuff, and taking advantage of +EV offers. I was also referring friends to the site and the owner thought they weren't real people, even after having spoken to at least one of them on Skype with me.

woa how u did that?? haha care to share what happen previously? and ur stragety???

I was winning by counting cards at blackjack. I had discussed the strategy with the site owner, and he was fine with it. He even went so far as to tell me my strategy wouldn't work because I was doing it wrong. I was leaving the table whenever the count went negative rather than playing the shoe out until it went positive again. Sitting at a new table gave me a new shoe with a 0 count, which I figured had to be better than the negative shoe I was playing with, so I'd switch, and it worked.

[knowhow]

Well i guess the admin thinked tou taked advantage from the bug or what it had called it to profit.Gambling will be the fast way to achieve such but the risk well is very high .

[darkangel11]

Playing cards with someone. You can also try trading but it won't be the fastest nor the easiest way.

[dooglus]

]Ahh touché, forgot I wrote that. I can't remember if you own dooglus on mp or if that's an imposter, so I've credited the 0.1 btc to dooglus on bustabit. Enjoy!

I've had a run of good luck, and doubled it so far:

[BitMaxz]

My method is to feel my moves and if i feel or think im lose with this move im lowering my bet then if i feel it will win im higher the bet. thats my way  so you need to feel it and think before you bet.Then you need to sacrifice high amount before you get to win or double you capital..

[agustina2]

All of the suggested ways is risky and can't be called the best but if you win. Yeah party time.

Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.

[panjul07]

All of the suggested ways is risky and can't be called the best but if you win. Yeah party time.

Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.

So do you mean that your suggestion is not risky? I think there is no safe way to win 1btc with 1btc, most of strategies are always risky. But I agree with you that to bet all the 1btc with 2x payout is the fastest way to win and fastest way to lose as well

[jpouza]

My method is to feel my moves and if i feel or think im lose with this move im lowering my bet then if i feel it will win im higher the bet. thats my way  so you need to feel it and think before you bet.Then you need to sacrifice high amount before you get to win or double you capital..

Feel the dice? feel the moviment?

That´s very ethereous 

[darkangel11]

My method is to feel my moves and if i feel or think im lose with this move im lowering my bet then if i feel it will win im higher the bet. thats my way  so you need to feel it and think before you bet.Then you need to sacrifice high amount before you get to win or double you capital..

Feel the dice? feel the moviment?

That´s very ethereous  

You have to imagine holding the dice in your hand while clicking "roll" on the screen LOL

[StevenLiang]

All of the suggested ways is risky and can't be called the best but if you win. Yeah party time.

Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.

So far, this the the quickest way to double 1 BTC to 2 BTC.
Win or lose is your consequence's.
If you want try this way, try it in trusted site such as crypto-games.net, and many other dice sites.

[BTC Tipster]

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

       chance  multiplier      
        1.0664% 92.83570893x    
                  
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065
 4     0.01124861  0.03302406  1.00000001
 5     0.01137110  0.04427267  1.00000036
 6     0.01149492  0.05564377  1.00000036
 7     0.01162009  0.06713869  1.00000051
 8     0.01174662  0.07875878  1.00000040
 9     0.01187453  0.09050540  1.00000048
10     0.01200383  0.10237993  1.00000031
11     0.01213454  0.11438376  1.00000032
12     0.01226667  0.12651830  1.00000004
13     0.01240025  0.13878497  1.00000078
14     0.01253527  0.15118522  1.00000019
15     0.01267177  0.16372049  1.00000049
16     0.01280975  0.17639226  1.00000021
17     0.01294924  0.18920201  1.00000063
18     0.01309024  0.20215125  1.00000022
19     0.01323278  0.21524149  1.00000024
20     0.01337687  0.22847427  1.00000007
21     0.01352254  0.24185114  1.00000091
22     0.01366978  0.25537368  1.00000026
23     0.01381863  0.26904346  1.00000022
24     0.01396910  0.28286209  1.00000011
25     0.01412121  0.29683119  1.00000014
26     0.01427498  0.31095240  1.00000051
27     0.01443042  0.32522738  1.00000047
28     0.01458755  0.33965780  1.00000020
29     0.01474640  0.35424535  1.00000075
30     0.01490697  0.36899175  1.00000041
31     0.01506929  0.38389872  1.00000021
32     0.01523338  0.39896801  1.00000024
33     0.01539926  0.41420139  1.00000057
34     0.01556694  0.42960065  1.00000032
35     0.01573645  0.44516759  1.00000045
36     0.01590780  0.46090404  1.00000005
37     0.01608102  0.47681184  1.00000003
38     0.01625613  0.49289286  1.00000036
39     0.01643314  0.50914899  1.00000007
40     0.01661208  0.52558213  1.00000001
41     0.01679297  0.54219421  1.00000009
42     0.01697583  0.55898718  1.00000020
43     0.01716068  0.57596301  1.00000020
44     0.01734755  0.59312369  1.00000086
45     0.01753644  0.61047124  1.00000016
46     0.01772740  0.62800768  1.00000067
47     0.01792043  0.64573508  1.00000031
48     0.01811557  0.66365551  1.00000070
49     0.01831283  0.68177108  1.00000065
50     0.01851224  0.70008391  1.00000077
51     0.01871382  0.71859615  1.00000078
52     0.01891759  0.73730997  1.00000032
53     0.01912359  0.75622756  1.00000088
54     0.01933182  0.77535115  1.00000024
55     0.01954233  0.79468297  1.00000076
56     0.01975512  0.81422530  1.00000015
57     0.01997024  0.83398042  1.00000073
58     0.02018769  0.85395066  1.00000016
59     0.02040752  0.87413835  1.00000072
60     0.02062973  0.89454587  1.00000001
61     0.02085437  0.91517560  1.00000025
62     0.02108146  0.93602997  1.00000085
63     0.02131101  0.95711143  1.00000028
64     0.02154307  0.97842244  1.00000067
                   0.99996551        

Edit: and the calculations showing that it works for the first 5 bets:

>>> 0.01088902 * (99/1.0664 - 1)
1.0000008712228057
>>> 0.01100759 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902
1.0000008112303074
>>> 0.01112745 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759
1.0000006493023257
>>> 0.01124861 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745
1.0000000137959488
>>> 0.01137110 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 - 0.01124861
1.0000003597824456

Edit2: I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.

It worked in PD:

Code:

Session Wagered:
0.00000156

Session Profit:
0.00000214

Session Bets:
156

[Financisto]

Good discussion about math behind a dicegame.

Full of probability and statistics.

I like that...

[ndnh]

Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x

Playing at 9900x

With a bankroll of 1BTC, the player can afford 6912 rolls.

Chance to win is 49.90770579% on 1% edge. ?


or is it 49.5567818%?

[dooglus]

Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x

Playing at 9900x

If you win your first bet you stop with a profit of 9899 * 0.0001 = 0.9899 BTC

The goal is to make a profit of 1 BTC.

I think you need to play with a higher multiplier or something.

Let's set the payout multiplier (m) and work everything out from there.

m = 10001, say

The probability (c) of a bet winning at that multiplier is:
  c = 0.99 / m

The starting bet to win 1 BTC at multiplier m is:
  a = 1.0 / (m - 1)

The amount we need to multiply the stake by when we lose to maintain the same net profit is:
  r = (1+a) / ((m-1)*a) = a+1 = m / (m - 1)

The stake on the nth bet will be:
  a * r ** (n-1)

The sum of stakes for the first n bets will be:
  a * (1 - r**n) / (1 - r)

The number of bets we can afford to make is:
  math.floor(math.log((a - 1 + r) / a, r)) = math.floor(math.log(2, r))

The probability of winning in the first n bets will be:
  (1 - (1 - c) ** n)

And so the probability of doubling up successfully is:
  (1 - (1 - c) ** math.floor(math.log(2, r)))

Using this we can quickly calculate the chance of doubling up for various payout multipliers:

>>> for m in range(2, 20):
  c = 0.99 / m; a = 1.0 / (m-1); r = a+1;
  print m, (1 - (1 - c) ** math.floor(math.log(2, r)))

2 0.495
3 0.33
4 0.43374375
5 0.484150392
6 0.417817125
7 0.456617399413
8 0.483416946706
9 0.4415940551
10 0.465006203908
11 0.483238980643
12 0.452678497552
13 0.469363352144
14 0.483175196779
15 0.494793694573
16 0.472032613906
17 0.483147625356
18 0.492797130255
19 0.473835743219

>>> for m in range(100, 1000, 100):
  c = 0.99 / m; a = 1.0 / (m-1); r = a+1;
  print m, (1 - (1 - c) ** math.floor(math.log(2, r)))

100 0.491634447195
200 0.495807062928
300 0.495521270088
400 0.495378549439
500 0.496292293111
600 0.496068806433
700 0.495909161472
800 0.49641338199
900 0.496251020552

1000 0.496121110593
2000 0.496285044722
3000 0.496505870593
4000 0.496491615824
5000 0.496483063523
6000 0.496477362221
7000 0.496473289977
8000 0.496470235856
9000 0.496467860466

10000 0.496515810046
20000 0.496507258615
30000 0.496521023585
40000 0.496515444608
50000 0.496522066276
60000 0.496518173205
70000 0.49651539243
80000 0.49651953749
90000 0.496517223088

100000 0.496520356059
200000 0.496521993186
300000 0.496520877415
400000 0.496521565628
500000 0.496521978562
600000 0.496521423111
700000 0.496521738439
800000 0.496521974923
900000 0.49652215884

1000000 0.496521807542
2000000 0.496522220475
3000000 0.496522191972
4000000 0.496522177798
5000000 0.496522169092
6000000 0.496522163469
7000000 0.496522159358
8000000 0.496522218726
9000000 0.49652220935

1000000 0.496521807542
2000000 0.496522220475
3000000 0.496522191972
4000000 0.496522177798
5000000 0.496522169092
6000000 0.496522163469
7000000 0.496522159358
8000000 0.496522218726
9000000 0.49652220935

10000000 0.496522201834
20000000 0.496522218205
30000000 0.496522223275
40000000 0.496522214705
50000000 0.496522217672
60000000 0.496522221587
70000000 0.496522222003
80000000 0.496522225028
90000000 0.496522226175

100000000 0.496522217899
200000000 0.496522220646
300000000 0.496522230602
400000000 0.496522220218
500000000 0.496522232255
600000000 0.496522238624
700000000 0.496522223637
800000000 0.496522212528
900000000 0.49652220586

This is consistent with my post back in February where I found:

I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.

What's the significance of that 49.65222222222% number?

[ndnh]

Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x

Playing at 9900x

If you win your first bet you stop with a profit of 9899 * 0.0001 = 0.9899 BTC

The goal is to make a profit of 1 BTC.

I think you need to play with a higher multiplier or something.

hehehe yeah.

[dooglus]

Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x

Playing at 9900x

If you win your first bet you stop with a profit of 9899 * 0.0001 = 0.9899 BTC

The goal is to make a profit of 1 BTC.

I think you need to play with a higher multiplier or something.

hehehe yeah.

Here's a plot of the probability of doubling up against the payout multiplier you use:



I'd love an explanation of why it tops out at 0.496522222!

[mexxer-2]

Hmm just thought about it, has OP yet paid the prize he has claimed to pay to the best method or is he still searching for more strats?

[dooglus]

Hmm just thought about it, has OP yet paid the prize he has claimed to pay to the best method or is he still searching for more strats?

He already paid, and it's likely we have the best strategy already.

[mexxer-2]

Hmm just thought about it, has OP yet paid the prize he has claimed to pay to the best method or is he still searching for more strats?

He already paid, and it's likely we have the best strategy already.

Could you point to the post which won it? And did it really have lower chances of losing?(highest EV I mean)

[dooglus]

Could you point to the post which won it? And did it really have lower chances of losing?(highest EV I mean)

These two posts:

leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.

you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

And yes, they have a higher EV because on average they risk less. The EV is -1% of the amount you risk, so minimising the amount you risk maximises the EV.

The corollary to this of course is that the optimal strategy for maximising your EV is to risk 0 - ie. stop playing.

A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?

[knowhow]

Well one funny way to get fast 1btc ,im sure you cant play with 1 btc but you can earn 600% or even 1000% playing a game ,and well only need lucky and a good conection im playing yesterday i made 40ksatoshis with 10k fee xD,i guess i cant post any ref link here soo send me pm.

[Coef]

Hmm just thought about it, has OP yet paid the prize he has claimed to pay to the best method or is he still searching for more strats?

He already paid, and it's likely we have the best strategy already.

It is dangerous to jump to the conclusion quickly.

leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.

you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

With 1 btc, I should be able to make a total of 3430 x4950 (ie 0.02%) bets, each with a bet size of roundup((2-balance)/4949) to the nearest satoshi that could bring my balance to slightly over 2 btc if the bet wins. After that, I will have 0.00027093 left and a final x9900 (ie 0.01%) bet can be made which could bring my balance to 2.682207 btc.
Check http://pastebin.com/TL7xLTx4 for the complete betting sequence in details in CSV format.

Chance of winning = 1 - ((1 - 0.02%) ^ 3430 * (1 - 0.01%)) = 49.649851332%.


Or, I should be able to make a total of 2287 x3300 (ie 0.03%) bets, each with a bet size of roundup((2-balance)/3299) to the nearest satoshi.
Check http://pastebin.com/Je5ujHH9 for the complete betting sequence in details in CSV format.

Chance of winning = 1 - ((1 - 0.03%) ^ 2287) = 49.651579392%

Yeah, but you also said:

added 0.1 to blockage's account. If someone can beat his solution, I'll give them 0.1 as well.

Ahh touché, forgot I wrote that.

I notice the word "them" in the quote. Do I get 0.1 btc for beating dooglus' solution?

[wearepoor]

I think its possible but at the same time it is little difficult too. I believe that the best way to earn 1 btc is sports betting only If you have good knowledge about sports and if you are able to predict the result. So as per me you can take a chance with sports betting as there are many chances to make some good profit.
Avoid the other ways of gambling where you can loose the money.

[RHavar]

I notice the word "them" in the quote. Do I get 0.1 btc for beating dooglus' solution?

Damn it. Guess that serves me right for trying to use gender-neutral pronouns. What's your MP or BaB username?

(Give me a day or two to verify the solution, and after this, no more prize money will be given out   )

[dooglus]

Chance of winning = 1 - ((1 - 0.02%) ^ 3430 * (1 - 0.01%)) = 49.649851332%.

Chance of winning = 1 - ((1 - 0.03%) ^ 2287) = 49.651579392%

I notice the word "them" in the quote. Do I get 0.1 btc for beating dooglus' solution?

My recent post shows strategies that give a 49.6522222% percent chance of winning, so your post (which came after) doesn't beat mine.

Are you able to beat 49.6522222%, or do you think that is a hard limit?

Here's a chart showing your two strategies, and where they fit on the curve of possible martingale strategies. The higher the payout multiplier you play with, the closer you get to the 49.652222% chance:



I wonder if flat-betting would be better?

Like we could divide the 1 BTC into N=10 0.1 bets.
Bet the first 0.1 at 11x. If we win, we're 1 BTC up, so we stop.
Bet the 2nd 0.1 12x. If we win, we're 1 BTC up, so we stop.
Etc.
Bet the Nth at (10+N)x. We're always 1 BTC up if we win.

Turns out it isn't better. What's funny is it is exactly the same.

Here's a Python script that calculates the chance of doubling up using this flat-betting strategy for various N:

for m in range(0, 6):
    for N in range(10**m, 10**(m+1), 10**m):
        p = 1.0
        for i in range (1, N+1):
            p *= (1 - 0.99 / (N+i))

        print "%6d %.8f" % (N, 1 - p)

And here's its output:

     1 0.49500000
     2 0.49582500
     3 0.49607333
     4 0.49619171
     5 0.49626081
     6 0.49630606
     7 0.49633797
     8 0.49636168
     9 0.49637999
    10 0.49639455
    20 0.49645915
    30 0.49648035
    40 0.49649088
    50 0.49649718
    60 0.49650137
    70 0.49650436
    80 0.49650660
    90 0.49650834
   100 0.49650973
   200 0.49651599
   300 0.49651807
   400 0.49651911
   500 0.49651973
   600 0.49652015
   700 0.49652044
   800 0.49652067
   900 0.49652084
  1000 0.49652098
  2000 0.49652160
  3000 0.49652181
  4000 0.49652191
  5000 0.49652198
  6000 0.49652202
  7000 0.49652205
  8000 0.49652207
  9000 0.49652209
 10000 0.49652210
 20000 0.49652216
 30000 0.49652218
 40000 0.49652219
 50000 0.49652220
 60000 0.49652220
 70000 0.49652221
 80000 0.49652221
 90000 0.49652221
100000 0.49652221
200000 0.49652222
300000 0.49652222
400000 0.49652222
500000 0.49652222
600000 0.49652222
700000 0.49652222
800000 0.49652222
900000 0.49652222

It converges on 49.6522222% chance of doubling up again!

[dooglus]

I'd love an explanation of why it tops out at 0.496522222!

It turns out that number doesn't end with recurring 2's, but is in fact:

>>> 1 - 2**-0.99
0.49652222497164056

I calculated it using L'Hôpital's rule, which I vaguely remember learning about in high school.

[Xenoph0bia]

I think its possible but at the same time it is little difficult too. I believe that the best way to earn 1 btc is sports betting only If you have good knowledge about sports and if you are able to predict the result. So as per me you can take a chance with sports betting as there are many chances to make some good profit.
Avoid the other ways of gambling where you can loose the money.

Agreed with you that it is possible but at the same time its difficult too. People can loose the money while trying to earn one btc in gambling, they should follow some techniques and other strategies to minimize the loss or else they will loose their 1 btc instead of earning 1 btc.

[knowhow]

On the begining for sure bet 1 btc worthing 1 dollars weren nothing nowadays is worthing 250dollars soo why the hell i should try with 1 btc to double since i know and most of us know that the lucky usually stays with the owner of the project being casino,dice or any other way.

[Coef]

Are you able to beat 49.6522222%, or do you think that is a hard limit?

After going through post #198 carefully, I agree the number 1 - 2**-0.99 you get should be the limit under perfect conditions (the bet size and multiplier can always be set to make the balance after winning a bet to be exactly 2 btc). Under actual conditions (bet size cannot contain a fraction of satoshi, bet win chance % can only contain 2 decimal place) it cannot be done and so the "best" way would be slightly lower than that.

BTW, I have not heard of the word "L'Hopital's rule" for like a decade lol.

My recent post shows strategies that give a 49.6522222% percent chance of winning, so your post (which came after) doesn't beat mine.

As mentioned in the OP, the betting sequence has to be well-defined and subject to the constraints of a dice site such as Bitdice or PRC. IMHO, the numbers you get in that post does not seem to qualify.

I notice the word "them" in the quote. Do I get 0.1 btc for beating dooglus' solution?

Damn it. Guess that serves me right for trying to use gender-neutral pronouns. What's your MP or BaB username?

(Give me a day or two to verify the solution, and after this, no more prize money will be given out   )

Received the 0.1 btc. Thanks Ryan.

[leex1528]

Doog, how did you learn all of this?  I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds.  Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what?  Any thoughts?

[knowhow]

You can do all calculations but only one thing will allow to earn 1 btc playing with 1 btc that is lucky the 49% means nothing besides you can loose as win anytime.

[hua_hui]

Doog, how did you learn all of this?  I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds.  Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what?  Any thoughts?

well it is actually quite simple mathematical calculation. you can start using it when you learn probability with tree diagram. but instead of picking 2 or 3 people or throwing 2/3 dice, the same occuring series can be applied to larger number of trials.

on higher level(my country use terms diff from you so i may use the wrong term) in pre-u school, you can learn even how to estimate your probability by approximating the binominal distribute to other form of distribute that allow more easy of calculation.

And to be honest, this is the first time i ever encountered after learning L'Hôpital's rule in uni. lol. finally what i learn got some use to it!

[Rammus]

Doog, how did you learn all of this?  I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds.  Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what?  Any thoughts?

I`m pretty sure it comes from either majoring in math..

That alone or picking up and building the dice itself and studying the game which lead to his site? who knows lol.

[hua_hui]

Doog, how did you learn all of this?  I would love to try and figure out about calculations and what actually gives you the best odds.  Did you take a lot of stats classes in college or what?  Any thoughts?

I`m pretty sure it comes from either majoring in math..

That alone or picking up and building the dice itself and studying the game which lead to his site? who knows lol.

for my country(in asia), probability is learn at y7 to y10, where you need to learn how to calculate when you throw up to 3 dices or pick 3 balls. of course, for good sch, they have to learn on how to calculate for n throws where n can be large. for advance y11 to y12, we learn for large n, what probability for specific k times of winning. but i believe dooglus even learn up to university standard as he mention that he know about L'Hôpital's rule which is only taught when your major has things to do with math where you have to look at the big picture.

[Aemon]

So basically you are saying that strategy is good and the best thing you can use no matter what?  No matter the amount of large rolls you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?

[ndnh]

...you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?

Not really. If you are concerned about increasing your EV and beating the edge, you shouldn't play. Whichever strategy you pick, you can only minimize the impact of house edge on your EV.

Maximize impact of HE on EV : bet at 98% win chance.
Minimize impact of house edge : follow the winning strategies of Dooglus and the other winner.
Nullify impact of house edge : Don't play.
Beat the house edge : Not possible.

[hua_hui]

So basically you are saying that strategy is good and the best thing you can use no matter what?  No matter the amount of large rolls you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?

nope, what we are trying to show u is that no matter how many different stragety we can come out with, the chance of getting it right is always less than 50%. so in another words, it is more likely you lost it all than to gain. so best is dont bet.

[jackg]

You could possibly try pokarautomatics or carbon7 for this. You will get 2btc in around 5 weeks from a 1btc investment! There is less risk to this than bitcoin mining. They apparently use automated "bots" to basicallymine from gambling pokar sites to gain money/bitcoin.

[Coef]

You could possibly try pokarautomatics or carbon7 for this. You will get 2btc in around 5 weeks from a 1btc investment! There is less risk to this than bitcoin mining. They apparently use automated "bots" to basicallymine from gambling pokar sites to gain money/bitcoin.

Those HYIP programs always claim to make "safe" and "guaranteed" profit from forex trading, altcoin trading, bitcoin mining, new IT business, asset management, etc but in fact they don't. They are just ponzis and use deposits from "investors" to pay earlier "investors". IMHO, it is a lot riskier to send your money to these scheme than to gamble on some trusted provably fair gambling site.

So basically you are saying that strategy is good and the best thing you can use no matter what?  No matter the amount of large rolls you do you should always be doing this is what I am gathering, is that correct?

IMHO, one thing can be learned from this thread: In terms of probability of reaching your profit target in dice (or any other luck based games with negative EV), some ways of playing are better but no strategy can give players a positive EV.
If your only target is to maximize your EV, you should not gamble in the first place. Instead, you should be the house or invest in the bankroll if you trust the site.

[Kevin77]

Yes. HYIP programs are always a ponzi. It's just to eat your investments.
Doubler may give you 1BTC on day one but that too not sure after many such a sites turn scams from day one too.
May be forex trading may give you 100% profit in 15 days time period.

[futurebit640]

Yes. HYIP programs are always a ponzi. It's just to eat your investments.
Doubler may give you 1BTC on day one but that too not sure after many such a sites turn scams from day one too.
May be forex trading may give you 100% profit in 15 days time period.

Do ever believe those high yield investment programs. There offers are like double in 24 hours or 10% profits in a day all are unrealistic. They just want to tempt investors and get the deposits afer couple of days or couple of weeks they simple will close the site and come up with another one either with same idea with different name or with different way to cheat people. Do not ever invest even single $ into these sites. 

[jpouza]

If you are an experienced trader, you could win 1 btc with 1 btc for sure, specially with altcoins in the past, now I think BTC only trade is more solid.

[Supercrypt]

If you are an experienced trader, you could win 1 btc with 1 btc for sure, specially with altcoins in the past, now I think BTC only trade is more solid.

Yes. Now a days only btcoin gets more volume compared to any other alt coins. But trading in bitcoin with a predetermined target of 1 bitcoin might not be good idea as the target set will make you over trade and result in unwanted things. Wait for good opportunity and trade only on those.

[Mayanheir]

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

       chance  multiplier      
        1.0664% 92.83570893x    
                  
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065

I have bolded the line "if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit" because I am confused, you say to do a martingale but the second bet should be 0.02177804 not 0.01100759 like you listed, it also doesn't double your other bets in the 64 bet run. If you are doubling your bet using the martingale system and keeping the same chance of winning, it is not possible to have 64 bets.

[BigMac]

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

        chance  multiplier     
        1.0664% 92.83570893x   
                   
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065

I have bolded the line "if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit" because I am confused, you say to do a martingale but the second bet should be 0.02177804 not 0.01100759 like you listed, it also doesn't double your other bets in the 64 bet run. If you are doubling your bet using the martingale system and keeping the same chance of winning, it is not possible to have 64 bets.

He is not doubling the bet, because he is not making x2 bet but x92.8357 bet. At that high multiplier, a small increase in the bet size is enough to have a profit (if the bet wins) big enough to bring total net profit to 1+ btc.

[jpouza]

If you are an experienced trader, you could win 1 btc with 1 btc for sure, specially with altcoins in the past, now I think BTC only trade is more solid.

Yes. Now a days only btcoin gets more volume compared to any other alt coins. But trading in bitcoin with a predetermined target of 1 bitcoin might not be good idea as the target set will make you over trade and result in unwanted things. Wait for good opportunity and trade only on those.

Unfortunatly altcoins are in the mud today, it was really a good chance to win some BTC in the exchange in the past, also Bitcoin's future is uncertain.

[adaseb]

If you are an experienced trader, you could win 1 btc with 1 btc for sure, specially with altcoins in the past, now I think BTC only trade is more solid.

Yes. Now a days only btcoin gets more volume compared to any other alt coins. But trading in bitcoin with a predetermined target of 1 bitcoin might not be good idea as the target set will make you over trade and result in unwanted things. Wait for good opportunity and trade only on those.

Unfortunatly altcoins are in the mud today, it was really a good chance to win some BTC in the exchange in the past, also Bitcoin's future is uncertain.

No its hard making money with altcoins, its easier if you can find one that you can short because most Altcoins go down to 1 satoshi. Look at NMC or DRK even, never gaining any actual value ever.

[jackg]

Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).

Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet.  Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize the chance of winning 1 BTC. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.

Let me start with the most obvious solution:


Bet 1 BTC @ 2x  ... which gives an EV of -0.01, and a chance of winning at 49.5%

if you go to betcoin.tm or follow the 777coin.com link in my signature, you can bamble 10 mBTC at a time and have a greater chance of winning, with a lesser chance of loosing on a game such as blackjack which is slightly easier to play, than other games!

[quadriple7]

i think the best way would be to just do an all in bet and hope that you will be lucky enough to win it as there is no possible way to beat the house edge

[jpouza]

i think the best way would be to just do an all in bet and hope that you will be lucky enough to win it as there is no possible way to beat the house edge

All in is crazy, you must be a very "exotic" person to do this 

[Financisto]

Strategy 1:
You're always playing 9900x using a martingale sequence, i.e. your wager for each round is

Code:

ceiling((2 - PLAYER_BR)/9899,1e-8)

you run out of funds after 6861 bets. You lose all of them with a probability of

Code:

0.9999^6861 = 0.5035187605260536

or put differently you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

Strategy 2:
You're constantly playing 20203 satoshi but increase the payout each round by exactly 1x starting at 4951x which will leave you with 1.00004850 BTC profit. You run out of funds after 4949 games and your last payout will be 9899x. You lose all of them with a probability of

Code:

prod(1-0.99/i, i=4949..9899) = 0.5035283796177312

leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.

I Hope the math is correct  

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

       chance  multiplier      
        1.0664% 92.83570893x    
                  
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065
 4     0.01124861  0.03302406  1.00000001
 5     0.01137110  0.04427267  1.00000036
 6     0.01149492  0.05564377  1.00000036
 7     0.01162009  0.06713869  1.00000051
 8     0.01174662  0.07875878  1.00000040
 9     0.01187453  0.09050540  1.00000048
10     0.01200383  0.10237993  1.00000031
11     0.01213454  0.11438376  1.00000032
12     0.01226667  0.12651830  1.00000004
13     0.01240025  0.13878497  1.00000078
14     0.01253527  0.15118522  1.00000019
15     0.01267177  0.16372049  1.00000049
16     0.01280975  0.17639226  1.00000021
17     0.01294924  0.18920201  1.00000063
18     0.01309024  0.20215125  1.00000022
19     0.01323278  0.21524149  1.00000024
20     0.01337687  0.22847427  1.00000007
21     0.01352254  0.24185114  1.00000091
22     0.01366978  0.25537368  1.00000026
23     0.01381863  0.26904346  1.00000022
24     0.01396910  0.28286209  1.00000011
25     0.01412121  0.29683119  1.00000014
26     0.01427498  0.31095240  1.00000051
27     0.01443042  0.32522738  1.00000047
28     0.01458755  0.33965780  1.00000020
29     0.01474640  0.35424535  1.00000075
30     0.01490697  0.36899175  1.00000041
31     0.01506929  0.38389872  1.00000021
32     0.01523338  0.39896801  1.00000024
33     0.01539926  0.41420139  1.00000057
34     0.01556694  0.42960065  1.00000032
35     0.01573645  0.44516759  1.00000045
36     0.01590780  0.46090404  1.00000005
37     0.01608102  0.47681184  1.00000003
38     0.01625613  0.49289286  1.00000036
39     0.01643314  0.50914899  1.00000007
40     0.01661208  0.52558213  1.00000001
41     0.01679297  0.54219421  1.00000009
42     0.01697583  0.55898718  1.00000020
43     0.01716068  0.57596301  1.00000020
44     0.01734755  0.59312369  1.00000086
45     0.01753644  0.61047124  1.00000016
46     0.01772740  0.62800768  1.00000067
47     0.01792043  0.64573508  1.00000031
48     0.01811557  0.66365551  1.00000070
49     0.01831283  0.68177108  1.00000065
50     0.01851224  0.70008391  1.00000077
51     0.01871382  0.71859615  1.00000078
52     0.01891759  0.73730997  1.00000032
53     0.01912359  0.75622756  1.00000088
54     0.01933182  0.77535115  1.00000024
55     0.01954233  0.79468297  1.00000076
56     0.01975512  0.81422530  1.00000015
57     0.01997024  0.83398042  1.00000073
58     0.02018769  0.85395066  1.00000016
59     0.02040752  0.87413835  1.00000072
60     0.02062973  0.89454587  1.00000001
61     0.02085437  0.91517560  1.00000025
62     0.02108146  0.93602997  1.00000085
63     0.02131101  0.95711143  1.00000028
64     0.02154307  0.97842244  1.00000067
                   0.99996551        

Edit: and the calculations showing that it works for the first 5 bets:

>>> 0.01088902 * (99/1.0664 - 1)
1.0000008712228057
>>> 0.01100759 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902
1.0000008112303074
>>> 0.01112745 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759
1.0000006493023257
>>> 0.01124861 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745
1.0000000137959488
>>> 0.01137110 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 - 0.01124861
1.0000003597824456

Edit2: I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.

I wonder if:

Anyone tried/tested that already?

Any testimony of good/bad luck (success/failure)?

[dooglus]

can someone please script this? xD

I expect dicebot can already do this.

Also if i use this strategy at a 0.4% house edge do i actually beat house edge?

No. You can never beat the house edge, or even change it (unless you are cheating, of course).

[reda]

also this may sound dumb but is there a percentage at which the bet is being increased at

If need to more profit. Most of the people use the gambling. But before star the gambling you know the all process. It any time to get more profit. So check the gambling people then use the Bitcoin. If you have a bankroll of 1 btc, try this 70% start with 1000k sats, bet only one way, 10x after 4 losses. It will take time but it will work. Just try. But check the process and rules is important for this process. It change your life.

[dooglus]

also this may sound dumb but is there a percentage at which the bet is being increased at

Each bet increases the previous one by 100 / ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) percent.

That's around 1.0889%

[dooglus]

It will take time but it will work. Just try. But check the process and rules is important for this process. It change your life.

Are you claiming to have a winning system? How much has it won for you so far? Why don't you automate the process and win all the Bitcoins?

[BTCevo]

also this may sound dumb but is there a percentage at which the bet is being increased at

If need to more profit. Most of the people use the gambling. But before star the gambling you know the all process. It any time to get more profit. So check the gambling people then use the Bitcoin. If you have a bankroll of 1 btc, try this 70% start with 1000k sats, bet only one way, 10x after 4 losses. It will take time but it will work. Just try. But check the process and rules is important for this process. It change your life.

I do not quite underatand about your betting strategy, may be you can try to explain it more here since everyone may be need this

It will take time but it will work. Just try. But check the process and rules is important for this process. It change your life.

Are you claiming to have a winning system? How much has it won for you so far? Why don't you automate the process and win all the Bitcoins?

I do not think that it is a winning system or any good strategy because every strategy is just based on your luck when you do it. Last time, me and my friend trying the same strategy at the same time but the result that we both get is not the same. On the same time we stop I lose it and my friend got some amount and after he continued for just a little while then he face huge losing streak