Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included.

[SimplisticStu]

GHash.IO have been having trouble all day with their hash rate so I'm guessing this has directly impacted difficulty

[armedmilitia]

It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right? 

[philipma1957]

It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right? 

no.

ghash.io was crashed and they have over 30ph in hash maybe only 25ph rolled over correctly.

that is 5ph lost which is 1.5 percent

[Quickseller]

It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right? 

no.

ghash.io was crashed and they have over 30ph in hash maybe only 25ph rolled over correctly.

that is 5ph lost which is 1.5 percent

Do you have any basis for the amount of mining capacity that went to backup pools or is that just speculation? I would also say that if the decline in the short term hash rate was caused by ghash going down then it would have been more then 1.5% of the network doing nothing. According to bicoinwisdom, the estimated next difficulty went from ~+3.8% to ~+1.8% now (bitcoinwisdom is not the best at predicting the next difficulty, however I do follow it relatively closely so it should be somewhat of a good indicator of what happened on an apples to apples basis).

(slightly off topic) - do you know what happened with ghash beyond the fact that they were DDoS'ed? I used to have my S3 there as a primary pool and it would fallover to eligius somewhat frequently, I have it pointed at eligius as a primary pool now so the downtime did not directly affect me.

[philipma1957]

It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right?  

no.

ghash.io was crashed and they have over 30ph in hash maybe only 25ph rolled over correctly.

that is 5ph lost which is 1.5 percent

Do you have any basis for the amount of mining capacity that went to backup pools or is that just speculation? I would also say that if the decline in the short term hash rate was caused by ghash going down then it would have been more then 1.5% of the network doing nothing. According to bicoinwisdom, the estimated next difficulty went from ~+3.8% to ~+1.8% now (bitcoinwisdom is not the best at predicting the next difficulty, however I do follow it relatively closely so it should be somewhat of a good indicator of what happened on an apples to apples basis).

(slightly off topic) - do you know what happened with ghash beyond the fact that they were DDoS'ed? I used to have my S3 there as a primary pool and it would fallover to eligius somewhat frequently, I have it pointed at eligius as a primary pool now so the downtime did not directly affect me.

Don't know why they crashed but they did.  Now a big farm going down is a sudden rate drop and it does happen once in a while.  A big pool also gets knocked off line  while many do have rollover set up some don't.  Also if you had an ant miner with only 3 pools ghash then west hash then nicehash yould could get burned.

[armedmilitia]

It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right?  

no.

ghash.io was crashed and they have over 30ph in hash maybe only 25ph rolled over correctly.

that is 5ph lost which is 1.5 percent

Do you have any basis for the amount of mining capacity that went to backup pools or is that just speculation? I would also say that if the decline in the short term hash rate was caused by ghash going down then it would have been more then 1.5% of the network doing nothing. According to bicoinwisdom, the estimated next difficulty went from ~+3.8% to ~+1.8% now (bitcoinwisdom is not the best at predicting the next difficulty, however I do follow it relatively closely so it should be somewhat of a good indicator of what happened on an apples to apples basis).

(slightly off topic) - do you know what happened with ghash beyond the fact that they were DDoS'ed? I used to have my S3 there as a primary pool and it would fallover to eligius somewhat frequently, I have it pointed at eligius as a primary pool now so the downtime did not directly affect me.

Don't know why they crashed but they did.  Now a big farm going down is a sudden rate drop and it does happen once in a while.  A big pool also gets knocked off line  while many do have rollover set up some don't.  Also if you had an ant miner with only 3 pools ghash then west hash then nicehash yould could get burned.

You'd think the big mining datacenters (which comprise the majority of the network hashrate by now IIRC) would have better failover pools. I personally just have westhash ---> slush, but I'm a small time miner. Shouldn't bigger miners have at least two stable pools? Something like westhash ---> ghash ---> slush. I don't think the smaller miners will have much of an effect anymore, especially considering how spread out they are among pools.

Random speculation: ASICMINER datacenter caught fire, the company is keeping hush hush about it, and that's why the hashrate went down, AMHASH stopped paying out, and friedcat disappeared.

[Quickseller]

Random speculation: ASICMINER datacenter caught fire, the company is keeping hush hush about it, and that's why the hashrate went down, AMHASH stopped paying out, and friedcat disappeared.

Wouldn't you think that if the ASICMINER farm had caught fire that the hash rate would have fallen months ago when AMHASH stopped receiving mining revenue as opposed to months later? I don't think the fact that it is related that it just came out that AMHASH has no actual current actual mining revenue around the same time the network hash rate fell dramatically

[armedmilitia]

Random speculation: ASICMINER datacenter caught fire, the company is keeping hush hush about it, and that's why the hashrate went down, AMHASH stopped paying out, and friedcat disappeared.

Wouldn't you think that if the ASICMINER farm had caught fire that the hash rate would have fallen months ago when AMHASH stopped receiving mining revenue as opposed to months later? I don't think the fact that it is related that it just came out that AMHASH has no actual current actual mining revenue around the same time the network hash rate fell dramatically

Ah yes! I forgot that AMHASH said they stopped receiving the revenue a while back. Maybe it was a veeery slow fire.
Well, I guess you fried that theory.  

[philipma1957]

actual live is 0.60% at 2:55 east coast time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

at 11:16 pm east coast it is  +1.19%

[suchmoon]

With 380 blocks to go and exchange rate at ~$270 I'd say +2% to +4% seems likely.

[philipma1957]

With 380 blocks to go and exchange rate at ~$270 I'd say +2% to +4% seems likely.

well looks like a small positive  for sure.

[SimplisticStu]

With 380 blocks to go and exchange rate at ~$270 I'd say +2% to +4% seems likely.

I like that range 

[mavericklm]

for a miner, the incoming diff jump is a blessing!

[philipma1957]

actual live is 0.60% at 2:55 east coast time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

at 11:16 pm east coast it is  +1.19%

At 6:51 am east coast  it is  +1.49% we have 335 blocks to go.


on feb 22 price was around 245

on march 6 price is about   272  this is a jump of 11%

diff is up 1.50%

lets keep up this pace for a few jumps.

[tlhIlwI]

I certainly welcome a higher price without a big jump in difficulty.  My spreadsheet says that I do not need to lower voltages on this adjustment (which makes 3 in a row now). 

[adaseb]

I haven't had time to read the entire AMHASH catastrophee but can somebody sum up what happened exactly?

Their large cloud mining shut off and thats the reason why the hashrate is low this week?

[suchmoon]

I haven't had time to read the entire AMHASH catastrophee but can somebody sum up what happened exactly?

Their large cloud mining shut off and thats the reason why the hashrate is low this week?

Their cloud mining did not shut off but allegedly changed hands and no longer belongs to AM/AMHash. Even if it did affect the hashrate that didn't happen this week (issue started back in December) and it was only 3.5 PH/s or around 1%.

Edit: I guess I should provide a better answer to #1. AMHash (the cloud mining operator that signs up customers and pays dividends) and ASICMiner (the hardware owner that actually mines the coins) are two separate entities and ASICMiner stopped paying in December claiming their hardware had been "stolen" by a "partner", but they would replace it and start mining again soon. AMHash kept paying its customers in hopes that mining would restart and nobody would get hurt but that hasn't happened so the whole thing is collapsing. There are also some unconfirmed rumors about a kidnapping of one of the ASICMiner execs.

[philipma1957]

I haven't had time to read the entire AMHASH catastrophee but can somebody sum up what happened exactly?

Their large cloud mining shut off and thats the reason why the hashrate is low this week?

Their cloud mining did not shut off but allegedly changed hands and no longer belongs to AM/AMHash. Even if it did affect the hashrate that didn't happen this week (issue started back in December) and it was only 3.5 PH/s or around 1%.

Edit: I guess I should provide a better answer to #1. AMHash (the cloud mining operator that signs up customers and pays dividends) and ASICMiner (the hardware owner that actually mines the coins) are two separate entities and ASICMiner stopped paying in December claiming their hardware had been "stolen" by a "partner", but they would replace it and start mining again soon. AMHash kept paying its customers in hopes that mining would restart and nobody would get hurt but that hasn't happened so the whole thing is collapsing. There are also some unconfirmed rumors about a kidnapping of one of the ASICMiner execs.

yes this is doing something .  also ghash.io dropped its mining for more then 10 hours which could make as much as 5 to 10 ph vanish.

Also  maybe someone with a big s-3   mine at 10 cents sold all the gear to this company which can mine at 3 cents

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=976450.0


or maybe 5 small mines with 500th in s-3's sold the gear to them.  while it ships it is not hashing.  A good sign for this to be true will be if

A) next jump is bigger 4-6%
B) no new gear is listed .

That would mean a good chance a lot of s-3's were moved.

S-3's getting shifted from 10 cent to 3 cent mines is good.

as new gear will not sell well in bulk amounts  until all s-3s are removed from the network or are mining at 3 cent locations.

If I have lots of 3 cent power 50 usd s-3s are better then 400 dollar sp20e's.

[philipma1957]

actual live is 0.60% at 2:55 east coast time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

at 11:16 pm east coast it is  +1.19%

at 11;29 PM EAST COAST TIME +1.19%

BASICALLY STAYED FLAT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS !!
 

239 blocks to go

most likely max jump will not exceed 5%  we would need to do  the 239 blocks in 1 day to go over 5% .  That won't happen most

 likely  +1 to +3%

+0.51 to +1.00  was left empty

+1.01 to +5.75 are all filled up.

see below:



jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD! Smiley
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%



I do not think it will go  higher then zebedee or lower then  jmunich  but you never know.  It would be funny if it is one of  the two missing picks.

[adaseb]

Something is messed up with Ghash.io pool

Current block is 19 hours with 17Ph/s

and 2 blocks prior it took 10 hours with 13Ph/s.