We are headed to $50

[Alonzo Ewing]

I've been thinking a lot about the current state of affairs, and the picture has started to become clear.  This bear market is as painful (and in many ways more painful) as the 2011-2012 bear market.  That suggests that the "level" of the current bear market within the cycle corresponds to that previous bear market.

That means that the corresponding bull markets are:

$0 ---> $32
$2 ---> $1160

In order for a bull market to be born, the price has to revisit very close to the bull market peak one cycle back.  That's the only way the weak hands will be shaken out.  We've had a lot of weak hands who still think every $20 upswing is the start of a new bubble, who think making money in Bitcoin is easy, and who still have "faith" in the price without knowing the first thing about the technology.  They need to be shaken out because they're weak hands; they're dumb money.  Only when they're replaced by stronger hands who think long term and know better Bitcoin's place in the future world will the new bull market be born. 

In other words, the price has to get close to $32.  And by that, I don't mean "close" in linear terms, but rather, in log terms, so there's more room for error.  I think the final low will be something more like $50-$80. 

I'm going to be buying hand-over-fist at those levels from the weak hands who will panic sell.

Also, based on some fractal similarity I'm seeing--which I will divulge later after the new bull starts--the next bull will be powerful, as powerful on a log scale as the prior two full cycles combined.  When the dumb money panics, it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

[premium_domainer]

$50 @ when?   

2017? or 2020?   

[Alonzo Ewing]

$50 @ when?   

2017? or 2020?   

My guess is in the next month or two or three.

[calme]

Well, then hopefully @ $50 the news specials will show how high the price once was and we'll get a mega trend reversal once the viewers go all in.

[rocks]

Great! Just received my '14 bonus, $50 would allow me to buy a ton of coins.

[Quickseller]

I would not at all complain if this were to happen - it would be a great chance get really cheap coins.

[yui]

After the short to 50 run it up to 150 for 3X profit then short to 50 again

[lyth0s]

After the short to 50 run it up to 150 for 3X profit then short to 50 again

Or you will get caught with your pants down at $150 as we zoom right past it. If you really do have a short that you're holding all the way down to $50 I'd be fun for you to actually show us some proof of it so when you get called on it I can have someone to joke around with

[waterpile]

whatever the price is bitcoin will still be used and continue to be improved.

[calme]

yeah, even if it never goes back to triple digits, we're all still winners if we can keep using BTC. every day is a party in BTC land.

[bcoinbilly]

I do not think anyone can accurately  detect where the BTC price will go. The currency is still fairly new and still needs a few years for charts, stats, and other data to help predict future rise and falls.

I mean the stock market has been around for a while and folks still have a hard time predicting exactly where it may go day by day. However heavy accurate speculation exists and sometime right on the money. But with digital currency predictions it's still too soon. The only concrete evidence we know of is when the price dives significantly in a very short time usually has to do with some horrible horrible news and good news does not really make a difference as of yet. 

[stonerider]

Show us the "proof", until then I call the OP a FUDster.

[rebuilder]

Aren't you ignoring the 2013 peak, 266 usd, which did crash to a bit below 40 before the runup to 1160?

[uki]

Aren't you ignoring the 2013 peak, 266 usd, which did crash to a bit below 40 before the runup to 1160?

that is actually a good point. Talking about big scheme of things, one usually did not mention granularity and such "quick" events may be filtered out.
So if we apply the analysis from the OP to the levels you mentioned, revisiting somewhere around $200 should theoretically end the correction.

[ndnh]

$50 @ when?    

2017? or 2020?    

I am guessing around 2200. When we have superior technology that bitcoin.

Or it could be rare, put in a museum, with 99.999% of the coins lost. Valued at $1 million per satoshi.

[Amph]

you missed a zero, there is better chance we are headed to 500 than 50

[1Referee]

This thread should get a sticky and a golden medal for being todays most hilarious thread 

[croato]

Fingers crossed. I would buy some more all way down and be happy about cause even this price now around 250$ is cheap as hell.

[uki]

Very much in line with what OP posted is the guide on how to interpret the price of BTC.
It's not mine, but I fully agree with the author, as he pretty much nails it:

400-500: small risk
300-400: safe area
200-300: time to buy
100-200: why the hell are you not buying
50-100: you are mentally insane not to buy
0-50: you want to be poor on purpose

[newflesh]

Think the OP's being very pessimistic. Can't see the price going down that much, if it goes anywhere near $50 I'll be able to reach my goal of over thousand btc