Poll for Gun Control Advocates

[bb113]

How many M-16s do you believe are in US civilian hands right now?

I don't have precise figures.  Tell me, would it be false of me to suggest:

1.  Much fewer than there are AR-15 and variants.
2.  That it is much less often the weapon used in crimes or mass murder than the AR-15 and variants.  

(And yes, I am aware handguns dwarf both in ownership and criminal use. The point is simply to compare two very similar weapons to note the difference gun control makes between them.)

I have no idea that's why I was asking. I do know that it is said to be pretty easy to turn an AR15 into an M16 and the instructions are freely available online, no idea how many people do this but that would make it difficult to get a good estimate on how effective the suppression of automatic rifle ownership is.

As far as I am aware, easy conversion to real full-auto is a bit of a myth though I imagine it can be done if someone has the right tools.  However, it generally isn't done because for criminal or mass murder purposes you aren't really gaining much and are in some ways losing out on reliability by altering a gun to be fully auto that was not really designed for it. 

As for ownership numbers, I have no idea.  They are so rare I doubt anybody even tracks them.  According to Googling on gun forums, people price out at fully auto AK as a bargain at $10k.  You can get the legal semi version for much, much less.  Gun control has priced the full auto versions out of the reach of the common criminal, and we could do the same with the semi-auto version if we wanted.

That's the price for a legal one. I have no experience in how easy it is to do the mod or what effects it has on reliability. I do know that you can hear them going off in the hood on 4th of july.

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[myrkul]

How many M-16s do you believe are in US civilian hands right now?

I don't have precise figures.  Tell me, would it be false of me to suggest:

1.  Much fewer than there are AR-15 and variants.
2.  That it is much less often the weapon used in crimes or mass murder than the AR-15 and variants.  

(And yes, I am aware handguns dwarf both in ownership and criminal use. The point is simply to compare two very similar weapons to note the difference gun control makes between them.)

I have no idea that's why I was asking. I do know that it is said to be pretty easy to turn an AR15 into an M16 and the instructions are freely available online, no idea how many people do this but that would make it difficult to get a good estimate on how effective the suppression of automatic rifle ownership is.

As far as I am aware, easy conversion to real full-auto is a bit of a myth though I imagine it can be done if someone has the right tools.  However, it generally isn't done because for criminal or mass murder purposes you aren't really gaining much and are in some ways losing out on reliability by altering a gun to be fully auto that was not really designed for it. 

As for ownership numbers, I have no idea.  They are so rare I doubt anybody even tracks them.  According to Googling on gun forums, people price out at fully auto AK as a bargain at $10k.  You can get the legal semi version for much, much less.  Gun control has priced the full auto versions out of the reach of the common criminal, and we could do the same with the semi-auto version if we wanted.

That's the price for a legal one. I have no experience in how easy it is to do the mod or what effects it has on reliability. I do know that you can hear them going off in the hood on 4th of july.

Those are probably AKs. Much cheaper, much more widespread. Also, much more reliable.

[Rarity]

I do know that you can hear them going off in the hood on 4th of july.

Fully auto?  Unlikely.  Maybe bump fired.

That's the price for a legal one.

If you have any stats that show fully automatic weapons are showing up in any numbers worth mentioning in cases of mass murder or crime in the US compared to less controlled weapons, go ahead and post them.  As far as I am aware, you won't find them so the black market prices seem irrelevant. I doubt you will find the prohibition has a downward pressure on the price.  They are highly illegal and there is no demand when a semi-auto does the job just as well.

[MoonShadow]

[
As for ownership numbers, I have no idea.  They are so rare I doubt anybody even tracks them.  According to Googling on gun forums, people price out at fully auto AK as a bargain at $10k.  You can get the legal semi version for much, much less.  Gun control has priced the full auto versions out of the reach of the common criminal, and we could do the same with the semi-auto version if we wanted.

This is based on a false premise.  Namely that the cost of a legally registered class III weapon is directly corrolated to the black market price of an equivalent weapon.  While there are many ways that regulation can affect the black market prices of such weapons, there comes a point that the black market weapon is cheaper to aquire than a legitimately registered one; then gun control regulations fail.  This price point is always crossed under a complete ban, so it's reasonable to look at places where such weapons are unavailable other than on the black market to take a reasonable guess as to what the maximum that regulations can force up the black market price of such weapons.

There are other practical reasons than just the high cost that criminals don't generally use class III weapons, as they are usually used by thugs who have limited experience with automatic weapons, and even the well trained USMC doesn't use full auto M-16's anymore for the average grunt; because the user has a tendency to squeeze the trigger until his magazine is empty.  A semi-auto is a better weapon most of the time anyway.

[MoonShadow]

 They are highly illegal and there is no demand when a semi-auto does the job just as well.

This is also an untrue statement.  It's not illegal for a US citizen, with zero history of criminal activities nor mental illness, to own or buy a fully automatic weapon, a short-barreled shotgun, or even a shoulder fired anti-vehicle & wire guided missile.  What is required is a license for each of these classes of federally regulated weapons, and a lot of money.  As you have already alluded to, it's mostly the cost of the process that is the limiting factor.  It is simply not true that there is a ban on such weapons in the US.

[MoonShadow]

I'm a gun control advocate and yes there were guns in my home growing up and I have used them for alligator hunting.  (delicious, but I'm vegetarian now)

What changed my mind was moving to London.  The culture shift from Florida to London was crazy, but one of the things you noticed was that the police generally don't even need to carry guns.  There is still a lot of criminal violence but it tends to be less deadly.  I'm not at all convinced prohibition in general, and of weapons specifically, can't work.  We have too many examples where they have worked just fine.  Consider the danger of automatic weapons, for example.  Though a weapon like a Tommy gun or a fully automatic AK would be a good tool for mass murder, the long term automatic weapon bans in the US have put such weapons out of reach of casual buyers. You could still get one if you are a collector and you want to pay out a lot, but they are not the types of weapons commonly used by criminals.  We could do the same thing for other guns if we wanted.

As for military stuff like Tanks and nukes, we have a government of the people and for the people.  The military and police use these kind of weapons in our name and if we don't like the government we vote them out instead of shooting them out.  I'm not a legal scholar so I can't tell you how to interpret the second amendment, but if I had my way all of that junk would definitely remain banned.

What is the difference between a semi-auto AR15 and fully auto M-16?

One can fire fully auto, making it even more dangerous.   Though,  I'm not comparing the danger between the two. I'm pointing out how gun control alters the availability between them.  Both should be banned.  That one already has been controlled is simply pointed out to preempt suggestions that such bans don't work.

Well, your attempt at preemption is a fail, since as I have already pointed out, Class II & Class III weapons are not banned.  They're regulated at the federal level, and rather harshly, but they are not illegal.

http://www.knobcreekrange.com/events/featured-events/machine-gun-shoot

[myrkul]

Though a weapon like a Tommy gun or a fully automatic AK would be a good tool for mass murder,

However, it generally isn't done because for criminal or mass murder purposes you aren't really gaining much

semi-auto does the job just as well.

Interesting. You've changed your position twice. In consecutive posts, no less. So, which is it, a good choice, a slight gain, or roughly equal?

[bb113]

I do know that you can hear them going off in the hood on 4th of july.

Fully auto?  Unlikely.  Maybe bump fired.

That's the price for a legal one.

If you have any stats that show fully automatic weapons are showing up in any numbers worth mentioning in cases of mass murder or crime in the US compared to less controlled weapons, go ahead and post them.  As far as I am aware, you won't find them so the black market prices seem irrelevant. I doubt you will find the prohibition has a downward pressure on the price.  They are highly illegal and there is no demand when a semi-auto does the job just as well.

From a quick googling it looks like very few automatics are reported to be used in crimes, which at least indicates the type of person who chooses to own one anyway. We would need to see before-ban and after-ban stats to really compare though.

We should also remember that the most successful mass-murder in recent US history was done with box-cutters.

[Rarity]

 They are highly illegal and there is no demand when a semi-auto does the job just as well.

This is also an untrue statement.  It's not illegal for a US citizen, with zero history of criminal activities nor mental illness, to own or buy a fully automatic weapon, a short-barreled shotgun, or even a shoulder fired anti-vehicle & wire guided missile.  

Slow down there.  I was talking directly about black market purchases.  I already discussed the legal option.

This is based on a false premise.  Namely that the cost of a legally registered class III weapon is directly corrolated to the black market price of an equivalent weapon.

Well, it's a premise.  If you want to declare it false, link me the average cost for a black market AK in the US.  I can't dig it up.  However, when we are talking about crime in the US we are talking about guns commonly moving from legal purchases on to the black market.  If we made the fully auto weapons widely available, there is no doubt they would be just as cheap as the semi-auto weapons now and moving through that process to enter the black market.  Gun control prevents that.  The weapons must be imported into a country with very tough law enforcement and a market already flooded with guns.  Better to sell them elsewhere.

Well, your attempt at preemption is a fail, since as I have already pointed out, Class II & Class III weapons are not banned.  They're regulated at the federal level, and rather harshly, but they are not illegal.

Holy triple post.  Slow down.  Weapons like an AK can be owned if they have been grandfathered in, however they are banned for import and for new manufacture for civilian sale. Old grandfathered in weapons are good for collectors and hobbyists, not criminals and murderers.

We would need to see before-ban and after-ban stats to really compare though.

Well it was a different time.  These regulations date back to the 1930s when Tommy guns in the hands of mobsters and robbers were scaring the shit out of people.  That was all a bit exaggerated though and the gun wasn't that common.  As I've said, fully auto weapons really aren't the best for crime. 

We should also remember that the most successful mass-murder in recent US history was done with box-cutters.

Well, box cutters and airplanes, and we took the sensible control method of locking the cockpit doors from now on.  If you have a sensible preventative measure, you should take it.  There were 11,493 firearm homicides in the US in 2009.  That's several 911's every year.

[MoonShadow]

 They are highly illegal and there is no demand when a semi-auto does the job just as well.

This is also an untrue statement.  It's not illegal for a US citizen, with zero history of criminal activities nor mental illness, to own or buy a fully automatic weapon, a short-barreled shotgun, or even a shoulder fired anti-vehicle & wire guided missile. 

Slow down there.  I was talking directly about black market purchases.  I already discussed the legal option.

This is based on a false premise.  Namely that the cost of a legally registered class III weapon is directly corrolated to the black market price of an equivalent weapon.

Well, it's a premise.  If you want to declare it false, link me the average cost for a black market AK in the US.  I can't dig it up.  However, when we are talking about crime in the US we are talking about guns commonly moving from legal purchases on to the black market.  If we made the fully auto weapons widely available, there is no doubt they would be just as cheap as the semi-auto weapons now and moving through that process to enter the black market.  Gun control prevents that.  The weapons must be imported into a country with very tough law enforcement and a market already flooded with guns.  Better to sell them elsewhere.

Well, your attempt at preemption is a fail, since as I have already pointed out, Class II & Class III weapons are not banned.  They're regulated at the federal level, and rather harshly, but they are not illegal.

Holy triple post.  Slow down.  Weapons like an AK can be owned if they have been grandfathered in, however they are banned for import and for new manufacture for civilian sale. Old grandfathered in weapons are good for collectors and hobbyists, not criminals and murderers.

Okay, so you admit they are not banned.  Then your premise has failed, has it not?

And what is your motivation for the belief that they shout be banned?

[Rarity]

Okay, so you admit they are not banned.  Then your premise has failed, has it not?

Banning manufacture and import is functionally a ban.  You are simply disputing semantics.  If you want to repeat the steps that have led to a fully auto costing $10000 and being out of the hands of criminals for other firearms but call it "Oktoberfest" instead of "Ban" I'm entirely okay with it, the semantics don't bother me.  In fact, it will probably make it an easier sale to the public.

[bb113]

Okay, so you admit they are not banned.  Then your premise has failed, has it not?

Banning manufacture and import is functionally a ban.  You are simply disputing semantics.  If you want to repeat the steps that have led to a fully auto costing $10000 and being out of the hands of criminals for other firearms but call it "Oktoberfest" instead of "Ban" I'm entirely okay with it, the semantics don't bother me.  In fact, it will probably make it an easier sale to the public.

Wait I thought we agreed that was a legal fully-auto? Someone go check silk road for the black market price...

[myrkul]

And what is your motivation for the belief that they should be banned?

Rarity will never answer this, because he doesn't want to admit that it just boils down to "I'm skeered of 'em!"

[Rarity]

Okay, so you admit they are not banned.  Then your premise has failed, has it not?

Banning manufacture and import is functionally a ban.  You are simply disputing semantics.  If you want to repeat the steps that have led to a fully auto costing $10000 and being out of the hands of criminals for other firearms but call it "Oktoberfest" instead of "Ban" I'm entirely okay with it, the semantics don't bother me.  In fact, it will probably make it an easier sale to the public.

Wait I thought we agreed that was a legal fully-auto? Someone go check silk road for the black market price...

The legal price is relevant because guns in the US that end up used in crime are often legally purchased originally.  We don't have many, "Oops, my fully automatic AK-47 got stolen, Officer!" when it costs 10k and the number of available guns is finite.  A rich collector will pay more than a bank robber because the bank robber will just use a cheap handgun or (rarely) semi-auto rifle so the fully-auto guns stay off the black market.

 I would be interested in the black market price in the US if someone can dig it up, but again there just isn't that much demand.  The country is flooded with tons of guns already and large scale importation of illegal firearms is (relatively) difficult because of serious port security.  There is a much bigger market for these weapons in the developing world where people actually fight battles with them.  In general, the US illegally exports firearms far more than it imports them.  

[bb113]

Okay, so you admit they are not banned.  Then your premise has failed, has it not?

Banning manufacture and import is functionally a ban.  You are simply disputing semantics.  If you want to repeat the steps that have led to a fully auto costing $10000 and being out of the hands of criminals for other firearms but call it "Oktoberfest" instead of "Ban" I'm entirely okay with it, the semantics don't bother me.  In fact, it will probably make it an easier sale to the public.

Wait I thought we agreed that was a legal fully-auto? Someone go check silk road for the black market price...

The legal price is relevant because guns in the US that end up used in crime are often legally purchased originally.  We don't have many, "Oops, my fully automatic AK-47 got stolen, Officer!" when it costs 10k and the number of available guns is finite.  A rich collector will pay more than a bank robber because the bank robber will just use a cheap handgun or (rarely) semi-auto rifle so the fully-auto guns stay off the black market.

 I would be interested in the black market price in the US if someone can dig it up, but again there just isn't that much demand.  The country is flooded with tons of guns already and large scale importation of illegal firearms is (relatively) difficult because of serious port security.  There is a much bigger market for these weapons in the developing world where people actually fight battles with them.  In general, the US illegally exports firearms far more than it imports them.  

I was talking about the modding not importing. I wonder how often the police even check to see if this has occurred. Like you I don't think its important enough to search out.

And what is your motivation for the belief that they should be banned?

Rarity will never answer this, because he doesn't want to admit that it just boils down to "I'm skeered of 'em!"

Anyway, why? Because you think it will price them out of the range of the common criminal?

[Rarity]

I was talking about the modding not importing.

I don't quite follow how you got back to modding.  A modified semi-auto is not particularly useful for a criminal or collector.  There isn't really a market there.  

Handguns are the best weapon for criminals.  Even for mass murderers, killers with handguns who know what they are doing have put up comparable kill rates to killers armed with semi-automatic rifles.  

For crimes such as robbery you want to steal stuff and not get caught, not kill people.  For criminal use the attributes you want are an easily concealable but still an extremely effective, reliable, and relatively easy to use weapon.  They prefer handguns for the same reason people prefer them for self-defense.

A black market modified rifle of unknown reliability and large size that will spray bullets everywhere in the mode you modified it for is not a good choice.  

[MoonShadow]

Okay, so you admit they are not banned.  Then your premise has failed, has it not?

Banning manufacture and import is functionally a ban.  You are simply disputing semantics.  If you want to repeat the steps that have led to a fully auto costing $10000 and being out of the hands of criminals for other firearms but call it "Oktoberfest" instead of "Ban" I'm entirely okay with it, the semantics don't bother me.  In fact, it will probably make it an easier sale to the public.

Furthermore, the 'ban' on importation or manufacture of full-auto weapons are, in fact, not a complete ban.  There are exceptions, some of them notable.  For example, a FN P-90 is on my wishlist, but falls under the aforementioned importation ban.  Except for policemen.  But once it's been imported for a cop, and said cop has owned it for a period of time (2 years, IIRC) then a standard Class III transfer & ATF tax stamp is all that is required for that cop to sell that firearm to any other citizen with the correct permit to buy one.  I won't claim that this happens often, because it most certainly does not, but there have to be some guys buying up such guns (perhaps for an additional "private pension" fund?) because P-90's are available in the US, apparently legally.

Now, I don't know how many states limit their policemen in this regard.  I've no doubt that it's a non-starter in California.  But it is an exception to the ban, so there is no ban.  If there is an exception, then it's not (economicly speaking) a ban.  If the demand is high enough, the exceptions become the rule and then the ban is meaningless political drivel.

[bb113]

I was talking about the modding not importing.

I don't quite follow how you got back to modding.  A modified semi-auto is not particularly useful for a criminal or collector.  There isn't really a market there.  

Handguns are the best weapon for criminals.  Even for mass murderers, killers with handguns who know what they are doing have put up comparable kill rates to killers armed with semi-automatic rifles.  

For crimes such as robbery you want to steal stuff and not get caught, not kill people.  For criminal use the attributes you want are an easily concealable but still an extremely effective and relatively easy to use weapon.  They prefer handguns for the same reason people prefer them for self-defense.

A questionable, black market modified, likely unreliable, large weapon that will spray bullets everywhere in the mode you modified it for is not a good choice. 

Sorry for being unclear. I got into this thread because I was interested in how effective the "ban" on automatic rifles really is. From what you are saying you think they are poor tools anyway.

[Rarity]

Furthermore, the 'ban' on importation or manufacture of full-auto weapons are, in fact, not a complete ban.  There are exceptions, some of them notable.  For example, a FN P-90 is on my wishlist, but falls under the aforementioned importation ban.  Except for policemen.  But once it's been imported for a cop, and said cop has owned it for a period of time (2 years, IIRC) then a standard Class III transfer & ATF tax stamp is all that is required for that cop to sell that firearm to any other citizen with the correct permit to buy one.  

I do not believe that such a process is actually legal.  I'm gonna need a link on that.    First off, I do not believe policeman can "own" fully automatic weapons.  They are treated as any other citizen under these laws.  They may be issued one by a department but they do not own it and can not sell it. Second, it is my understanding that no fully automatic manufactured after 1986 can enter the legal market as per FOPA.  I'd be interested if you could provide links to show otherwise.

Sorry for being unclear. I got into this thread because I was interested in how effective the "ban" on automatic rifles really is. From what you are saying you think they are poor tools anyway.

They are at least as effective as a semi-auto and they have that flexibility to go full auto in the unlikely even you actually needed to.  Otherwise they are bad tools for most purposes other than fighting a battle.  The ban is so effective gun control advocates have had to resort to a lot of false scare mongering about semi-autos to try and make them out to be "Machine Guns" or give them scarier names like "Assault Weapons". (and I say that as someone in favor of gun control)  If fully automatics were actually out there on the streets, believe me you would be hearing about it.  

[myrkul]

Both should be banned.

One small question: Why?

Again, Rarity, this is a very simple question: Why?

As a gun control advocate, you should be able to answer why you think guns should be controlled.

And what is your motivation for the belief that they should be banned?

Anyway, why? Because you think it will price them out of the range of the common criminal?

Oh, Rarity, you're not doing yourself any favors by ignoring this question, you're just proving me right.

Rarity will never answer this, because he doesn't want to admit that it just boils down to "I'm skeered of 'em!"