This is not "it"

[HalFinneysBrain]

Way too fucking early for a rally.

First off, nobody is going anywhere without Gemini and the Bitlicense. Any premature rally will get dumped on by miners from China.

Secondly and somewhat related to first point: nobody is going anywhere without the big ETF, which is dependent on Gemini proving that the market in the West won't easily be raped by the Chinese dump monkeys.

Lastly and most importantly, we're constantly skirting with the blocksize limit. The moment volume picks up and we see tens of thousands of unconfirmed transactions disregarded into the void, the media will scream about how flaky bitcoin is as a method of payment, to which the newbs will dump coins faster than fat kid after eating Taco Bell.

In 2015, we are in the "2012" phase of quiet transition. Nobody is going anywhere after the 80% slow bleed. None. Infrastructure is building at a rapid phase and the mainstream media is none the wiser. This is in fact, a good thing.

Just wait until the Winkies gets their hall pass from Uncle Ben, the ETF gets their stamp from Uncle Sam, and Gavincoin goes live, then perhaps we are due for The Big Fucking Rally, and then it's lights out for fiat.

I agree that 2015 is like 2012. 
In 2012 the price went from around 2 to around 10.  Thats a 400% gain.

Perhaps in 2015 the price will go from around 200 to around 1000.  Personally, I'd rather buy closer to 200 than to 1000.   

[uki]

What you are searching is a hype from 2013, and u cant compare this steady growth with a hype. We will not have that burst in price this year, not unless something big happens.
For bitcoin price to still go to frenzy, whales should spend quite an amount of money, and that is not something they want, since the halving is still whole year ahead of us, they would have to
keep up daily miners dump to keep the price up and thats just too much fiat spent.
Nice greens as u name them will appear about easter next year, maybe month +/-.

cheers

Must agree, as with many posts already that are contributed by ajareselde. I also think that we need a FUNDAMENTAL reason to fuel the next bubble. 2015, for now, seems to not have such fundamental development in cards. There are things on the horizon like Gemini, but I believe it will fully launch closer to next halving event (end of July 2016) to make the most of the hype created by then. Easter 2016 seems about right timing.
Therefore what we experience right now is TREND REVERSAL, and that takes more time than most of the users in this forum want to wait. It will be long and boring process, with most of the action rather horizontal than vertical. Maybe, if there is some severe crash in the stock markets by summer 2015, some part of the money from there would move to the Bitcoin market. But that is a pure speculation for now.

[oblivi]

Way too fucking early for a rally.

First off, nobody is going anywhere without Gemini and the Bitlicense. Any premature rally will get dumped on by miners from China.

Secondly and somewhat related to first point: nobody is going anywhere without the big ETF, which is dependent on Gemini proving that the market in the West won't easily be raped by the Chinese dump monkeys.

Lastly and most importantly, we're constantly skirting with the blocksize limit. The moment volume picks up and we see tens of thousands of unconfirmed transactions disregarded into the void, the media will scream about how flaky bitcoin is as a method of payment, to which the newbs will dump coins faster than fat kid after eating Taco Bell.

In 2015, we are in the "2012" phase of quiet transition. Nobody is going anywhere after the 80% slow bleed. None. Infrastructure is building at a rapid phase and the mainstream media is none the wiser. This is in fact, a good thing.

Just wait until the Winkies gets their hall pass from Uncle Ben, the ETF gets their stamp from Uncle Sam, and Gavincoin goes live, then perhaps we are due for The Big Fucking Rally, and then it's lights out for fiat.

I agree that 2015 is like 2012. 
In 2012 the price went from around 2 to around 10.  Thats a 400% gain.

Perhaps in 2015 the price will go from around 200 to around 1000.  Personally, I'd rather buy closer to 200 than to 1000.   

I think not 2015, but 2016, and near 2017 we will smash the last ATH HARD and people that didn't amass as much BTC as possible during 2015 will cry tears of lava.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Not to shit on anyone's parade, but I added some points of interest to the OP's chart. Just what I see that is different this time. (in the volume chart)
snipped

This is a correction to the bearish trend. A counter trend suckers rally, if you will...

You are short probably. Why not show the bitfinex volume instead? Or look down further at the MACD and see this has only just started moving.

Actually, I am 60% long (coins, no margin) as of the 152 low. I calls it as I sees it, and the volume says correction. I will continue to accumulate on our way back down to our final bottom.
In case you didn't see my chart I posted a month or two ago, here it is again

and now...


I am not one of these trolls that you assume I am. I am bearish in the longer term than the next days to weeks. I could care less if it never went back down, but I don't let that cloud my analysis. I trade as I see the market going, and I have no desire to force market movements before they are due. This was expected and I currently expect further bear market once this wears itself out. I'm not calling for single digits or even lower lows, but I do expect further pain for the bulls.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

^Good chart. Agreed.
Looking at the bid sum on all exchanges only confirms such an analysis.
If demand doesn't pick up, forget about bulls' wet dreams.


$330-$360 is a real possibility considering how this pump is playing out. Doesn't imply anything in the longer picture tho.


China pumping the hell out of it and everyone else follows (regardless of the insignificant embarassing low amounts of money on exchanges) exactly like they did with the $450 abomination bulltrap. Pump it until it reaches an obvious long term trend line, dump all. Rinse and repeat.

The trend line I use starts from the ATH, so it touches the $450 pump:



Sitting at $330 now, $310 in a month.

But yes I guess yours is valid too.

[adaseb]

Yes but I don't think the volume graphs are accurate at all from 2011-2012 so you can't use that as an indicator.

[saddampbuh]

slow and steady does it

[inca]

^Good chart. Agreed.
Looking at the bid sum on all exchanges only confirms such an analysis.
If demand doesn't pick up, forget about bulls' wet dreams.


$330-$360 is a real possibility considering how this pump is playing out. Doesn't imply anything in the longer picture tho.


China pumping the hell out of it and everyone else follows (regardless of the insignificant embarassing low amounts of money on exchanges) exactly like they did with the $450 abomination bulltrap. Pump it until it reaches an obvious long term trend line, dump all. Rinse and repeat.

The trend line I use starts from the ATH, so it touches the $450 pump:



Sitting at $330 now, $310 in a month.

But yes I guess yours is valid too.

Of course 360 implies something. It implies all downtrend lines are broken.  65 dollars from the price currently. We likely will not get there directly, but assuming the price will inexplicably trend into double digits is dreaming.

The future is unknown but I would guess we range trade until the (rapidly lowering) trend line is definitively broken, with mini rallies after ETF and halving approaches.

[uki]

Of course 360 implies something. It implies all downtrend lines are broken.  65 dollars from the price currently. We likely will not get there directly, but assuming the price will inexplicably trend into double digits is dreaming.

The future is unknown but I would guess we range trade until the (rapidly lowering) trend line is definitively broken, with mini rallies after ETF and halving approaches.

That is also my viewpoint. Horizontal trend till Eastern 2016. Then we are close to the next halving (July 2016) and we will also hear more fundamental news to fuel the growth (pump), like Gemini, maybe something more to that.

[pooya87]

i think it is not going to burst to the moon like before this time. we will see a gradual rising in bitcoin price.

[spazzdla]

sooner or later all trend lines will get shattered.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Real resistance begins at about 400$. That is the point where some of the miners, who have accumulated for more then a year, will start to see ROI.
Currently BTC is having a hard time to overcome 300$, where resistance is actually quite weak.
Needless to say that the future doesn't seem very bright for BTC.

[Brewins]

i think it is not going to burst to the moon like before this time. we will see a gradual rising in bitcoin price.

I agree.

More like 2012 than 2013

[HarmonLi]

When we're talking about 'it', we're talking merely about a trend-reversal. And this looks better than anything since November 2013's bubble (except for the May-run, which indeed looked promising). But this is the best thing we've got so far, and we'll only go parabolic when we've reached ~USD, I believe... What's your mark, people?

[okthen]

When we're talking about 'it', we're talking merely about a trend-reversal. And this looks better than anything since November 2013's bubble (except for the May-run, which indeed looked promising). But this is the best thing we've got so far, and we'll only go parabolic when we've reached ~USD, I believe... What's your mark, people?

With it I really meant the start of a vertical rally. I agree that we have had a trend reversal.

[uki]

When we're talking about 'it', we're talking merely about a trend-reversal. And this looks better than anything since November 2013's bubble (except for the May-run, which indeed looked promising). But this is the best thing we've got so far, and we'll only go parabolic when we've reached ~USD, I believe... What's your mark, people?

With it I really meant the start of a vertical rally. I agree that we have had a trend reversal.

For now, we have to forget about any vertical rally, as there is simply not enough fuel. We will get fuel when there will be some fundamental developments, and I expect these to happen closer to the halving date. As I already stated in my previous post, Eastern 2016 sounds around fine.

[zimmah]

Not sure any bull thinks that this is the hyperbolic phase... ppl see the 160 low as the capitulation and now we could have up to a year of slowly rising (on average) prices.

you must have bought that account, or forgot how bitcoin behaves.

slow rising has never happened in this history of ever

[tss]

So I've been seeing quite a lot of positive threads, and the feeling in general is quite bullish.
While I also had the same sentiment, I was recently looking at the charts (Bitstamp, 1 week) and noticed this:




[please excuse my 2 year old paint skills]
[when I say "looking at the charts" I mean it literally, no TA skills whatsoever...]

It seems we're going quite slowly. The last bull markets started quite fast, while these last weeks look more like what anticipated the final "crash" before the real bull run.
So basically, I think we'll still see another crash before the next bubble starts.

But you should learn some TA if you wanna comment on the charts. Even TA analysts are wrong all the time, so without basic notions it's hard trying to predict an always impossible to predict market.

haha.  thats perfect.  best example ever

[Kipsy89]

This could very well be the trend reversal, but we'll only know if it was the real one when we break through the long-time resistance at about $350. That's when the bull market is confirmed!

[okthen]

This could very well be the trend reversal, but we'll only know if it was the real one when we break through the long-time resistance at about $350. That's when the bull market is confirmed!

Getting closer!
Though I'll trust more the trend reversal when we break 600, the high we reached during the mini 2014 bubble.