The next bitcoin bubble will be massive

[smoothie]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

Only an exchange site hack/incident can cause a crash. Thats how its been and thats how it will always be. btc-e hack that took place last month was one of which that would have caused a crash. But it seems that bitcoiners and exchange sites have learned tough lessons from old incidents and matured in better risk management and incident response. I personally was amazed how btc-e been able to recover the incident in no time.

I really don't see any reason why BTC price would go down, even after reaching 100$

1. False. Any large holder of btc can crash the price by dumping it all at once.

2. Price would go down when people cash out to fiat. Trust me the price never goes straight up forever. Remember this.

1. Wouldn't happen, cause any large holder of BTC is not a dump.

2. People are cashing out every single second and every time they cash out there is a new holder of the asset, who is taking his turn in appreciating it to the next round, hens BTC continue rising but slowly.

1. You're being naive. It is possible. Remember June 2011? Oh wait....lol  

2. You obviously don't understand how markets work. How the fuck do you think we got from $32 to $2? You forget so fast....(don't let me stop you. Hang on to bitcoins forever LOL).

If you read my earlier posts you would understand what I mean. Tell you what, forget about it, you wouldn't get it anyways.

Yeah okay... lol 

[1714692037]

1714692037

[1714692037]

1714692037

[notme]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

Only an exchange site hack/incident can cause a crash. Thats how its been and thats how it will always be. btc-e hack that took place last month was one of which that would have caused a crash. But it seems that bitcoiners and exchange sites have learned tough lessons from old incidents and matured in better risk management and incident response. I personally was amazed how btc-e been able to recover the incident in no time.

I really don't see any reason why BTC price would go down, even after reaching 100$

1. False. Any large holder of btc can crash the price by dumping it all at once.

2. Price would go down when people cash out to fiat. Trust me the price never goes straight up forever. Remember this.

1. Wouldn't happen, cause any large holder of BTC is not a dump.

2. People are cashing out every single second and every time they cash out there is a new holder of the asset, who is taking his turn in appreciating it to the next round, hens BTC continue rising but slowly.

bitcoin's 30 year chart is going to look like one crazy ass rally after the next

cant wait to see that 

What's an ass rally?

[adamstgBit]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

Only an exchange site hack/incident can cause a crash. Thats how its been and thats how it will always be. btc-e hack that took place last month was one of which that would have caused a crash. But it seems that bitcoiners and exchange sites have learned tough lessons from old incidents and matured in better risk management and incident response. I personally was amazed how btc-e been able to recover the incident in no time.

I really don't see any reason why BTC price would go down, even after reaching 100$

1. False. Any large holder of btc can crash the price by dumping it all at once.

2. Price would go down when people cash out to fiat. Trust me the price never goes straight up forever. Remember this.

1. Wouldn't happen, cause any large holder of BTC is not a dump.

2. People are cashing out every single second and every time they cash out there is a new holder of the asset, who is taking his turn in appreciating it to the next round, hens BTC continue rising but slowly.

bitcoin's 30 year chart is going to look like one crazy ass rally after the next

cant wait to see that  

What's an ass rally?

cuz its gana look F'd up the 30 year chart  0 30 2 7 15 5 45 10... all the way up to 3457$ on year 30 ........ ofcousre the dollar would be what it use to be but still  lol

[FreeMoney]

cuz its gana look F'd up the 30 year chart  0 30 2 7 15 5 45 10... all the way up to 3457$ on year 30 ........ ofcousre the dollar would be what it use to be but still  lol

I think you added some spaces mistakenly. It's going to be 0 30 27 155 4510

[bitcon]

its more of a shart than a bubble. i have 30k bitcoins. i can crash the market whenever i wish.  but i know i wont get $13 for each 30,000 of my coins.

[Yuhfhrh]

its more of a shart than a bubble. i have 30k bitcoins. i can crash the market whenever i wish.  but i know i wont get $13 for each 30,000 of my coins.

Lol very descriptive!

[bitcon]

i think i will wait until the real turd pops out at $45

[adamstgBit]

i think i will wait until the real turd pops out at $45

and get left behind as we go to 100$ ?

[bittenbob]

its more of a shart than a bubble. i have 30k bitcoins. i can crash the market whenever i wish.  but i know i wont get $13 for each 30,000 of my coins.

I think you now have to sell those 30k bitcoins or all of us are going to have to call you a liar. If you have them, you can get damn near $13 each in one solid sell. It will also confirm you are not lying.

Come on.... What are you waiting for?

[notme]

its more of a shart than a bubble. i have 30k bitcoins. i can crash the market whenever i wish.  but i know i wont get $13 for each 30,000 of my coins.

I think you now have to sell those 30k bitcoins or all of us are going to have to call you a liar. If you have them, you can get damn near $13 each in one solid sell. It will also confirm you are not lying.

Come on.... What are you waiting for?

He doesn't have to sell, just announce a specific pattern of asks that adds up to 30k btc and then make it so.

[Yuhfhrh]

its more of a shart than a bubble. i have 30k bitcoins. i can crash the market whenever i wish.  but i know i wont get $13 for each 30,000 of my coins.

I think you now have to sell those 30k bitcoins or all of us are going to have to call you a liar. If you have them, you can get damn near $13 each in one solid sell. It will also confirm you are not lying.

Come on.... What are you waiting for?

He doesn't have to sell, just announce a specific pattern of asks that adds up to 30k btc and then make it so.

Or just one ask at $100 of 30k btc

[odolvlobo]

It is better to show this kind of chart with a log scale. With a log scale all price increases are relative. That is, for example, a doubling of the price looks the same no matter what the price is.

[420]

It is better to show this kind of chart with a log scale. With a log scale all price increases are relative. That is, for example, a doubling of the price looks the same no matter what the price is.

fantastic. makes the price look steady (steadily rising) this whole year

[ElectricMucus]

Necroing this thread, we've gone well over 4 months since the creation of this thread.

Is this theory officially busted?

[Spekulatius]

I wonder of what grounds this model is based other than wishful thinking (sorry OP, didnt grind through the whole thread)

Why would there be another bubble of epic proportions that can already be foretold?? Other then the high probability of anything big that happens to change fundamentals and to spur another bubble, I fail to see what it is OP bases his prediction on.

[420]

past does not predict future

[Spekulatius]

past does not predict future

It can be argued however, that history tends to repeat itself in financial markets and there is nothing that hasnt been there before (99.9% of the time correct). Thats why chart patterns and the likes can be observed.

For a "pattern" of such magnitude as described by the OP nonetheless, I fail to see the drivers or precedents.

[BitcoinTate]

Let's hope the OP doesn't call this correctly. BTC now at $104.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

Let's hope the OP doesn't call this correctly. BTC now at $104.

He didn't. He said mid-october 2012.

[BitcoinTate]

Let's hope the OP doesn't call this correctly. BTC now at $104.

He didn't. He said mid-october 2012.

Regardless of the timing he still said a 2 month run up to a bubble that pops at $120... which we are well on course for.