What would happen to the price of bitcoin if it was declared illegal in the USA?

[kentrolla]

I'm trying to decide if it would destroy bitcoin entirely, or make it even more valuable. any thoughts?

[CoinCidental]

I'm trying to decide if it would destroy bitcoin entirely, or make it even more valuable. any thoughts?

initially it would plummet and then recover rapidly i think

many americans would sell thinking they could not cash in their now "illegal" assets

but the international community would buy like crazy if the prices dropped

[Graet]

it would take more than "declaring it illegal" to stop it, it would take regulation and enforcement.
sheesh US govt cant stop a very long list of illegal stuff already -like stuff that literally harms its citizens- I cant see them magically succeed against Bitcoin
track records speak a lot

[kentrolla]

it would take more than "declaring it illegal" to stop it, it would take regulation and enforcement.
sheesh US govt cant stop a very long list of illegal stuff already -like stuff that literally harms its citizens- I cant see them magically succeed against Bitcoin
track records speak a lot

i think it's very likely that the US govt could take action against bitcoin with claims that it funds terrorism and criminals. I'm just wondering if that would actually hurt bitcoin or help it, kinda like the prohibition. I'm assuming that it would only help bitcoin because, if they wanted to, they could have already taken action.

[Clipse]

If you look at the current trend of things deemed illegal then bitcoin price would skyrocket.

At the end we could end up with a silkroad type of exchange.

[CoinCidental]

If you look at the current trend of things deemed illegal then bitcoin price would skyrocket.

At the end we could end up with a silkroad type of exchange.

there must be some hub that dispenses the fiat though .currency has to enter and leave the bitcoin world somehow so that would be its weakest point

[Graet]

If you look at the current trend of things deemed illegal then bitcoin price would skyrocket.

At the end we could end up with a silkroad type of exchange.

there must be some hub that dispenses the fiat though .currency has to enter and leave the bitcoin world somehow so that would be its weakest point

sorry, but I would like to remind people that Bitcoin is a global thing
iirc most Bitcoin exchanges aren't US based

oh and I prefer to exchange my BTC for goods and services where possible and vice-versa, rather than cash out

[Clipse]

If you look at the current trend of things deemed illegal then bitcoin price would skyrocket.

At the end we could end up with a silkroad type of exchange.

there must be some hub that dispenses the fiat though .currency has to enter and leave the bitcoin world somehow so that would be its weakest point

Yes, cash deposit and likely OTC style would become the norm. There is no way to prevent that unless the world banks deny all cash deposits which would in effect create no cashflow for themself.

So in order to shutdown bitcoin for fiat then banks must stop operating.

[kentrolla]

If you look at the current trend of things deemed illegal then bitcoin price would skyrocket.

At the end we could end up with a silkroad type of exchange.

there must be some hub that dispenses the fiat though .currency has to enter and leave the bitcoin world somehow so that would be its weakest point

sorry, but I would like to remind people that Bitcoin is a global thing
iirc most Bitcoin exchanges aren't US based

oh and I prefer to exchange my BTC for goods and services where possible and vice-versa, rather than cash out

I know. That's why i specified "in the USA" in the title of this thread.  I'm not even American.

[oakpacific]

Hoho, the government shold have known this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect Previously uninformed people are gonna get really curious as soon as the ban is proclaimed "Hmmm, how dangerous is this thing called Bitcoin that Feds have to go all the way to ban it? I should have a look........"

[majamalu]

Those from the government who have realized that Bitcoin cannot be controlled are likely buying bitcoins like crazy.

[cypherdoc]

Those from the government who have realized that Bitcoin cannot be controlled are likely buying bitcoins like crazy.

lol, +1

[FreeMoney]

Yes, the price would get very erratic and the non US exchanges would take up the slack and take in the dollars.

Do you think the non US exchanges are really up for the job? How much volume do they do all added together?

[anu]

Yes, the price would get very erratic and the non US exchanges would take up the slack and take in the dollars.

Do you think the non US exchanges are really up for the job? How much volume do they do all added together?

Are you under the impression that K.K. Tibanne (k.a. MtGox) is a US company? I hate to break the news on you, but the US is not the center of the world.

[FreeMoney]

Yes, the price would get very erratic and the non US exchanges would take up the slack and take in the dollars.

Do you think the non US exchanges are really up for the job? How much volume do they do all added together?

Are you under the impression that K.K. Tibanne (k.a. MtGox) is a US company? I hate to break the news on you, but the US is not the center of the world.

sarcasm.

There wouldn't be any 'slack' to take up if all the US markets left. People know better than to try new shit in the 'free states'.

[finkleshnorts]

I hope they declare it illegal. Then I can start dealing.

But really, I can't see how a ban can be constitutional. You don't "own" bitcoins, you have knowledge that lets you access them. Would it be illegal for me to know the combination to a safe full of heroin, that I have never visited, and then tell somebody else the combination, who tells somebody else the combination?

I suppose they could make it illegal to broadcast signed transactions (TOR integration ftw). But even then, it would be totally unprecedented. My guess is that nerds, libertarians, corporations, and media who previously had nothing to do with bitcoin would come out of the woodwork to stand up for it.

Oh, and the price would go way up IMO.

[theymos]

I think the price would go down quite a bit. Bitcoin would be much less useful if a large portion of its users needed to deal with it under the radar. Gavin and some other developers would probably stop working on the code, as well.

This is unlike drug prices. People want cocaine, but no one really wants bitcoins. People want to use bitcoins. If it's less easy to use BTC, BTC is less valuable.

An outright ban on Bitcoin seems unlikely, though.

[FreeMoney]

I think the price would go down quite a bit. Bitcoin would be much less useful if a large portion of its users needed to deal with it under the radar. Gavin and some other developers would probably stop working on the code, as well.

This is unlike drug prices. People want cocaine, but no one really wants bitcoins. People want to use bitcoins. If it's less easy to use BTC, BTC is less valuable.

An outright ban on Bitcoin seems unlikely, though.

I don't know what would happen to US demand, it would probably depend on the way they make it illegal, go after businesses or individuals and how hard etc. But it would be huge publicity both in the US and the rest of the world. The net effect on price has to be up imo.

I don't know what Gavin would do, but I saw a picture of him burning money and he seems like a badass, so maybe he would cash in a few coins and get a flight to Curitiba. The world is a big place.

[CoinCidental]

I hope they declare it illegal. Then I can start dealing.

But really, I can't see how a ban can be constitutional. You don't "own" bitcoins, you have knowledge that lets you access them. Would it be illegal for me to know the combination to a safe full of heroin, that I have never visited, and then tell somebody else the combination, who tells somebody else the combination?

I suppose they could make it illegal to broadcast signed transactions (TOR integration ftw). But even then, it would be totally unprecedented. My guess is that nerds, libertarians, corporations, and media who previously had nothing to do with bitcoin would come out of the woodwork to stand up for it.

Oh, and the price would go way up IMO.

You could say the many of those same things about online banking ,you dont physicaly have the notes and coins
you only have an access code to them
the code controls numbers on a database
your access code can be used to change the numbers on the database to credit someone else ,who can then credit someone else

and the only thing that counts  is the database change ,a bit like the blockchain

if the GOVT wanted to ban BTC they probably could not ,but they could make it so difficult to use most people just wouldnt bother

 

[anu]

I don't know what would happen to US demand, it would probably depend on the way they make it illegal, go after businesses or individuals and how hard etc.

A historic example about suppression of non-Fiat currency:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzJ_Pph8jGk&feature=player_detailpage#t=447s

Was not of much use, apparently.