What would happen to the price of bitcoin if it was declared illegal in the USA?

[anu]

I think it would work about as well as making file sharing illegal. Good luck!  

The substantive difference is that a huge number of people use and appreciate filesharing.  With Bitcoin, only a tiny fraction of people have even heard of it, and a majority of those who have have a pretty negative impression of it (which is likely no accident.)  So, obviously, the impact and 'marketing potential' of a crackdown would differ significantly between Bitcoin and various forms of filesharing.

The press has a hard time sympathizing with Kim Schmitz - he is a convicted criminal. But what if the US would use up huge resources to go after - 13 year old school boys running a miner on their game PC. The press is going to like this.

You forget that Bitcoin is decentralized. You have to work really hard and you need the collaboration of the ISPs to go after all those schoolboys. The ISPs are not going to like it. If Police comes to me with something like this, I will cooperate very willingly. But I will make sure that their faces will make the front page.

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[cypherdoc]

I think it would work about as well as making file sharing illegal. Good luck!  

The substantive difference is that a huge number of people use and appreciate filesharing.  With Bitcoin, only a tiny fraction of people have even heard of it, and a majority of those who have have a pretty negative impression of it (which is likely no accident.)  So, obviously, the impact and 'marketing potential' of a crackdown would differ significantly between Bitcoin and various forms of filesharing.

The press has a hard time sympathizing with Kim Schmitz - he is a convicted criminal. But what if the US would use up huge resources to go after - 13 year old school boys running a miner on their game PC. The press is going to like this.

You forget that Bitcoin is decentralized. You have to work really hard and you need the collaboration of the ISPs to go after all those schoolboys. The ISPs are not going to like it. If Police comes to me with something like this, I will cooperate very willingly. But I will make sure that their faces will make the front page.

Lol!  nice description.  and those same schoolboys will grow up to be the new leaders of our country.  i can't wait.  i wonder what they'll say to all these debt commitments the boomers have foisted upon them?

[anu]

I think it would work about as well as making file sharing illegal. Good luck!  

The substantive difference is that a huge number of people use and appreciate filesharing.  With Bitcoin, only a tiny fraction of people have even heard of it, and a majority of those who have have a pretty negative impression of it (which is likely no accident.)  So, obviously, the impact and 'marketing potential' of a crackdown would differ significantly between Bitcoin and various forms of filesharing.

The press has a hard time sympathizing with Kim Schmitz - he is a convicted criminal. But what if the US would use up huge resources to go after - 13 year old school boys running a miner on their game PC. The press is going to like this.

You forget that Bitcoin is decentralized. You have to work really hard and you need the collaboration of the ISPs to go after all those schoolboys. The ISPs are not going to like it. If Police comes to me with something like this, I will cooperate very willingly. But I will make sure that their faces will make the front page.

Lol!  nice description.  and those same schoolboys will grow up to be the new leaders of our country.  i can't wait.  i wonder what they'll say to all these debt commitments the boomers have foisted upon them?

Thanks cypherdoc! I should add that I do not think anything like pilloring the police is necessary here. This is Bavaria. Bavaria may be a vassal of the USA, but I think I'll invite them to the canteen (which is indistinguishable from a beer garden in summer) and we have a round of wheat beer. I'll explain Bitcoin to them and what they are going to catch is mainly 13 year old school boys. 17 year old school boys using their mined Bitcoins to get pot on SR, if they are really, really lucky. So I'll suggest them to write a report that Bitcoin is too heavily encrypted to trace port 8333 and take another wheat beer.

[stevegee58]

Guys.  You can't make software illegal (well maybe viruses and trojans).  You can't make using a particular TCP/IP port illegal.

If through some freak of nature something like this happened all the activity would simply be driven to TOR or something like it.  The world is full of clever people who would come up with hundreds of strategies to obfuscate BTC traffic if TOR didn't work for som reason.

[bitcon]

I think it would work about as well as making file sharing illegal. Good luck!  

The substantive difference is that a huge number of people use and appreciate filesharing.  With Bitcoin, only a tiny fraction of people have even heard of it, and a majority of those who have have a pretty negative impression of it (which is likely no accident.)  So, obviously, the impact and 'marketing potential' of a crackdown would differ significantly between Bitcoin and various forms of filesharing.

The press has a hard time sympathizing with Kim Schmitz - he is a convicted criminal. But what if the US would use up huge resources to go after - 13 year old school boys running a miner on their game PC. The press is going to like this.

You forget that Bitcoin is decentralized. You have to work really hard and you need the collaboration of the ISPs to go after all those schoolboys. The ISPs are not going to like it. If Police comes to me with something like this, I will cooperate very willingly. But I will make sure that their faces will make the front page.

Lol!  nice description.  and those same schoolboys will grow up to be the new leaders of our country.  i can't wait.  i wonder what they'll say to all these debt commitments the boomers have foisted upon them?

Thanks cypherdoc! I should add that I do not think anything like pilloring the police is necessary here. This is Bavaria. Bavaria may be a vassal of the USA, but I think I'll invite them to the canteen (which is indistinguishable from a beer garden in summer) and we have a round of wheat beer. I'll explain Bitcoin to them and what they are going to catch is mainly 13 year old school boys. 17 year old school boys using their mined Bitcoins to get pot on SR, if they are really, really lucky. So I'll suggest them to write a report that Bitcoin is too heavily encrypted to trace port 8333 and take another wheat beer.

are you having beers with the same cops protecting wall street thieves?

[tvbcof]

Guys.  You can't make software illegal (well maybe viruses and trojans).  You can't make using a particular TCP/IP port illegal.

If through some freak of nature something like this happened all the activity would simply be driven to TOR or something like it.  The world is full of clever people who would come up with hundreds of strategies to obfuscate BTC traffic if TOR didn't work for som reason.

It is relatively straightforward to limit utilization of certain things.  Kiddie porn is a good example.  While I agree that dedicated and knowledgeable (and brave and/or desperate) people would always have the capability of using Bitcoin, a clampdown would significantly modulate the makeup of the user-base and the count of said.  That, in turn, would dramatically change the direction and trajectory of the solution.

[anu]

I think it would work about as well as making file sharing illegal. Good luck!  

The substantive difference is that a huge number of people use and appreciate filesharing.  With Bitcoin, only a tiny fraction of people have even heard of it, and a majority of those who have have a pretty negative impression of it (which is likely no accident.)  So, obviously, the impact and 'marketing potential' of a crackdown would differ significantly between Bitcoin and various forms of filesharing.

The press has a hard time sympathizing with Kim Schmitz - he is a convicted criminal. But what if the US would use up huge resources to go after - 13 year old school boys running a miner on their game PC. The press is going to like this.

You forget that Bitcoin is decentralized. You have to work really hard and you need the collaboration of the ISPs to go after all those schoolboys. The ISPs are not going to like it. If Police comes to me with something like this, I will cooperate very willingly. But I will make sure that their faces will make the front page.

Lol!  nice description.  and those same schoolboys will grow up to be the new leaders of our country.  i can't wait.  i wonder what they'll say to all these debt commitments the boomers have foisted upon them?

Thanks cypherdoc! I should add that I do not think anything like pilloring the police is necessary here. This is Bavaria. Bavaria may be a vassal of the USA, but I think I'll invite them to the canteen (which is indistinguishable from a beer garden in summer) and we have a round of wheat beer. I'll explain Bitcoin to them and what they are going to catch is mainly 13 year old school boys. 17 year old school boys using their mined Bitcoins to get pot on SR, if they are really, really lucky. So I'll suggest them to write a report that Bitcoin is too heavily encrypted to trace port 8333 and take another wheat beer.

are you having beers with the same cops protecting wall street thieves?

Frankly, I don't think they send NYPD policemen to Munich to arrest 13 year old school boys for running a Bitcoin miner. But then, the US is known to wage war on a lot of things. Why not on Bavarian school boys running Bitcoin miners on their game PC.

This is America, after all, the Land Of The Free (TM)

[stevegee58]

Guys.  You can't make software illegal (well maybe viruses and trojans).  You can't make using a particular TCP/IP port illegal.

If through some freak of nature something like this happened all the activity would simply be driven to TOR or something like it.  The world is full of clever people who would come up with hundreds of strategies to obfuscate BTC traffic if TOR didn't work for som reason.

It is relatively straightforward to limit utilization of certain things.  Kiddie porn is a good example.  While I agree that dedicated and knowledgeable (and brave and/or desperate) people would always have the capability of using Bitcoin, a clampdown would significantly modulate the makeup of the user-base and the count of said.  That, in turn, would dramatically change the direction and trajectory of the solution.

I thought of this but CP isn't a good example.  I can only speak for the US but authorities have to actually see CP (or illegal music files etc) on your computer or receive CP from you before they can act.  Merely running file sharing software like uTorrent, LimeWire etc isn't illegal.

The legal system would have to go beyond current limits to do what you say.  It's like saying that they can ban the use of port 8333 and if you're caught using it they can get a search warrant.  Impossible.

[RodeoX]

... This is America, after all, the Land Of The Free (TM)

spit-take

[tvbcof]

Guys.  You can't make software illegal (well maybe viruses and trojans).  You can't make using a particular TCP/IP port illegal.

If through some freak of nature something like this happened all the activity would simply be driven to TOR or something like it.  The world is full of clever people who would come up with hundreds of strategies to obfuscate BTC traffic if TOR didn't work for som reason.

It is relatively straightforward to limit utilization of certain things.  Kiddie porn is a good example.  While I agree that dedicated and knowledgeable (and brave and/or desperate) people would always have the capability of using Bitcoin, a clampdown would significantly modulate the makeup of the user-base and the count of said.  That, in turn, would dramatically change the direction and trajectory of the solution.

I thought of this but CP isn't a good example.  I can only speak for the US but authorities have to actually see CP (or illegal music files etc) on your computer or receive CP from you before they can act.  Merely running file sharing software like uTorrent, LimeWire etc isn't illegal.

The legal system would have to go beyond current limits to do what you say.  It's like saying that they can ban the use of port 8333 and if you're caught using it they can get a search warrant.  Impossible.

I have not studied the cat-n-mouse game involving kiddie porn since the product is not an interest of mine.  I do know that in spite of a fair amount of time spent looking at internet porn I very rarely happen across it.  Basically never these days.  Thanks for the info on the subject though as it helps understand the game more generally which is useful.  A bit unnerving also as I suspect that it would not be terribly challenging to trick people into sending Bitcoin to an undercover entity.

As for what is possible and impossible, I suspect you may be mis-estimating.  This in light of the ability to execute citizens abroad (and other people nearby) without trial which would have seemed similarly impossible not long ago.  Also in light of focused efforts to enact 'internet kill switch' capabilities and development of the associated infrastructure.

[stevegee58]

Disclaimer: Any knowledge I have on the subject of illegal content is purely from reading slashdot and similar sources.  I have a nerdy legal interest in the interaction of technology and peoples' rights.

[tvbcof]

Disclaimer: Any knowledge I have on the subject of illegal content is purely from reading slashdot and similar sources.  I have a nerdy legal interest in the interaction of technology and peoples' rights.

You do sound a bit agitated for a person who has no concern about the government's ability to manage the internet related activities of it's citizens.  Just say'in...

[stevegee58]

My "agitation" comes from my passion for civil liberty issues in modern society.  Being able to photograph or record police.  Being free from continuous monitoring and surveillance.  The issues go on and on.  Most people don't care about their civil rights until they're gone.  Along the way they were willing to give up little bits of civil rights to feel "safer".

[tvbcof]

My "agitation" comes from my passion for civil liberty issues in modern society.  Being able to photograph or record police.  Being free from continuous monitoring and surveillance.  The issues go on and on.  Most people don't care about their civil rights until they're gone.  Along the way they were willing to give up little bits of civil rights to feel "safer".

Mine also FWIW.

[bitcon]

Disclaimer: Any knowledge I have on the subject of illegal content is purely from reading slashdot and similar sources.  I have a nerdy legal interest in the interaction of technology and peoples' rights.

You do sound a bit agitated for a person who has no concern about the government's ability to manage the internet related activities of it's citizens.  Just say'in...

or maybe he knows the gov't doesnt really have as much power as you think to manage smarter internet users/hackers.

[tvbcof]

Disclaimer: Any knowledge I have on the subject of illegal content is purely from reading slashdot and similar sources.  I have a nerdy legal interest in the interaction of technology and peoples' rights.

You do sound a bit agitated for a person who has no concern about the government's ability to manage the internet related activities of it's citizens.  Just say'in...

or maybe he knows the gov't doesnt really have as much power as you think to manage smarter internet users/hackers.

Two 'Huh?'s do not a 'Bingo!' make.

Firstly, I have mentioned on this thread that I've no doubt that a fraction of persons will have no troubles using Bitcoin in almost any circumstance.  Just that a much larger fraction could, and that could change Bitcoin significantly (_if_ a decision to try to quash Bitcoin through restrictions is made.)

Secondly, they guy is clearly documenting a disavowment of any potential wrongdoing.  In case he get's hauled in before the people's court of bitcointalk.org ya think?  I doubt that and read this as a concern over possible future hassles complements of government (who he (and you) seem to be claiming are toothless.)  Me suspects that the guy is concerned that his rattlings are documented and analyzed...and me suspects that he is 100% correct to be.

[anu]

Two 'Huh?'s do not a 'Bingo!' make.

Firstly, I have mentioned on this thread that I've no doubt that a fraction of persons will have no troubles using Bitcoin in almost any circumstance.  Just that a much larger fraction could, and that could change Bitcoin significantly (_if_ a decision to try to quash Bitcoin through restrictions is made.)

Secondly, they guy is clearly documenting a disavowment of any potential wrongdoing.  In case he get's hauled in before the people's court of bitcointalk.org ya think?  I doubt that and read this as a concern over possible future hassles complements of government (who he (and you) seem to be claiming are toothless.)  Me suspects that the guy is concerned that his rattlings are documented and analyzed...and me suspects that he is 100% correct to be.

Quid? What the hell are you talking about?

[tvbcof]

Quid? What the hell are you talking about?

I was talking about how the U.S. absorbed 3500 tons of Germany's gold and how they'll never see it again and are unlikely to say jack shit about it.  Such is the role of a vassal state before its' master.  Sorry if I was not clear.

I read a funny headline indicating that some wiener from Germany recently showed up to check up on their stash and make sure that Soviets hadn't gotten it yet and was told to take a hike.  Didn't read the story though.

[anu]

Quid? What the hell are you talking about?

I was talking about how the U.S. absorbed 3500 tons of Germany's gold and how they'll never see it again and are unlikely to say jack shit about it.  Such is the role of a vassal state before its' master.  Sorry if I was not clear.

That may be right - I suspect that gold hanging around the necks of beautiful (or less beautiful) Indian women, along with the 8000 tons of gold of the US. Must be a reason why Ron Paul can't see the gold and the Bundesbank doesn't want to.

[tvbcof]

Quid? What the hell are you talking about?

I was talking about how the U.S. absorbed 3500 tons of Germany's gold and how they'll never see it again and are unlikely to say jack shit about it.  Such is the role of a vassal state before its' master.  Sorry if I was not clear.

That may be right - I suspect that gold hanging around the necks of beautiful (or less beautiful) Indian women, along with the 8000 tons of gold of the US. Must be a reason why Ron Paul can't see the gold and the Bundesbank doesn't want to.

We may be vile but we're not stupid.  I suspect that the needing to dig into our own stash significantly will be the marker where we consider the cow to be dry and the time ripe to move on the the next monetary system.  Give or take a few years depending on election cycles, homeland security project progress, and other such considerations.