Bitcoin Forum

As per your PM on Friday...




WHERE ARE MY BITCOINS ?

http://blockchain.info/address/18LjoZ176cBLzibV3QfYxTQwEzL6XySagX

You now have a very limited amount of time till the phone starts ringing. You may be in hiding, but others are not so well hid.

Do you really want to see how this plays out ? As of right now, I have about 2500 reasons to chase you down. Please don't give me anymore.


<EDIT>

...and the hits keep rollin in....



Please feel free to see the following post to confirm the validity of my PMs.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102079.msg1118866#msg1118866

thanks.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1108723#msg1108723 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1108723#msg1108723)

I LOLed hahahaha :D

http://youtu.be/NcJyCdbC08c

+1 Yeah pirate where are bitlane's bitcoins?

Here  ;)
https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM

...and the hits keep rollin in....

Wow pirate does sounds like an egotistical faggot....wow just wow... :D

Out of curiosity, is your deposit particularly large? I seem to remember it was 3-figures, which should be insignificant enough that he can at least meet an agreed payment schedule...

I would guess his deposit is about 2500 coins.

With interest it's just shy of 2500 BTC......so not the end of the world by any means.

However, I like to always get my money's worth....in everything I do.

Oh my, Pirateat40 promised you Monday and now he is getting antagonistic when missing his own deadline. Not sure why he'd stall on a moderate payout. Perhaps he's still arranging how to play things with his inner circle. I take it you weren't part of Pirate's Vegascrew?

pirate supposedly has never missed a payment....so this should be no different....if he misses this one...by his own words he would have bitlane paid on Monday (today) plus interest. I would consider this a default.

By his own words, this is a MISSED TRANSACTION.

I never said I would come looking for it today, he actually informed me it would be resolved.

He banned me from #BTCST, so Obviously he is trying to hide his pro pony agenda

and it had nothing to do with me trolling perhaps a little too hard

I blame everyone that asked when pirate was going to pay, we started a drinking game and ... well yeah

I created this thread when my account was 6 hours late of being resolved, as I was informed would happen on Friday.

Not the typical '3 hour' rant of mine.....

I would consider this a default. I read it and Pirate said monday you would get your bitcoins and the interest for the current week.

DEFAULT!

[19:04] <@pirateat40> Trading vs Shutting Down is a much harder than just clicking a button.  There is A LOT of money moving around and I want this done as orderly as possible.  The process began last night and has been happening all day but its not something that happens over night.  The repayment will begin with the earliest investors first, but its tricky cause some of them now run PPT accounts which isn't fair to some.  When coins being to move I'll let everyon *Truncated*


Do you know where you are in age of accounts, Bitlane? Looks like he's changing things up on you, not a man of his word, it seems.

My bet is he's negotiating the size of the hair cut people will be receiving.

Sure looking like a default to me...

For $25000 I'd be pretty pissed too  ;)

SSSHhhhhh........

IT'S NEVER ABOUT REAL WORLD MONEY..... it's only Bitcoins and Bitcoins are imaginary.
(although I can bet that the IRS would probably LOVE to subpoena Trendon's Mt.Gox account records....)

What a coincidence that is exactly equal to one of these:

http://images.motorcycle-usa.com/PhotoGallerys/2010-victory-motorcycles-first-look-19.jpg

looks like shit to me...where are the sexy street bikes at?

Somehow people think that the quoted PM that I posted from Pirate to me is faked or bullshit.

Could a Forum Admin or MOD please go into my PM Inbox and retrieve the last 2 PMs from Pirate to myself and the last 2 replies that I made to those 2 PMs, back top Pirate, please ?

Mods can't read PM's.

theymos can and I just PM'd him.

Alternatively, I can provide a MOD with my login info and change it afterwards.

theymos is on it....just got a reply from him and provided the info requested.

Stay tuned....

Here are the accurate PMs. I haven't checked whether they equal the ones you posted. Some formatting may be off.

Why was the account closed?

-- Smoov

First off, thank you to theymos for the following:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102079.msg1118866#msg1118866

Not any type of vindication by any means, but as I said..... I DON'T LIE.



What may have very well slipped his mind is the fact that the longer my funds are held hostage, the greater the FINAL return, thanks to interest.

He is welcomed to short me only a SINGLE BTC interest and it will result in a LOST 5000 BTC bet for him.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1013607#msg1013607

I complained about his level of communication and called him out for taking too long, all in public stating:

"I don't care if he closes my account..blah...blah..."

The Original Post from me:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101152.0


All he needs to do IS..STICK TO HIS WORD and this will all end, otherwise, today was only 1st Gear. Am I rev'd up ? not even close....YET.

This is ugly, people who still believe in pirateat40 are idiots.  :P

This ^ +1

 :D

So what is it Bitlane, Is it 114 coins or 2500 coins.

23.5 hours ago, my account reached 2476.1327857922 BTC

In 30 mins, you can increase THAT amount by an additional 1%

How many coins left ?

Its not rocket science

But just in case, he has 2476.1327857922 (and a days interest at the rollover)

What I posted is what I am was owed after midnight CST cutoff.....although now that I think about it, as my account closure would have taken place 12 hours after the interest rollover for the week, at NOON CST, my final payout should have been a grand total of:

2476.1327857922 BTC x 1.005 = 2488.513449721161 (Interest calculated up to the minute, as Pirate guaranteed, 0.5% added for noon payout)

I would be more worried about return of principal than return on principal.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30204.0;topicseen

I only got as far as Pirate is running a pony.

I can't troll - I retarded.

Principal ? A MAN STICKING TO HIS WORD.

Principal ?..... to be returned right along with EVERY bitcent owed to me in Interest for every minute my coins are out of my possession.

Keeping it classy, Pat.

Did you know I gave you a decent starfish credit rating despite appearing to be "batshit crazy".  I appreciate the entertainment value you bring to the forum.  :)

edit: and for the rest of the bitcoin talk dot org community, yes, I would still loan to BL (even if it is shorthand for Japanese BL - I learned that yesterday when looking up blockchain.info)

I would expect the same if I had money with pirate.

+1

This might not come as a surprise to you, since I have dealt with you quite a bit and we have had 'our' times previously.

One of my greatest Heros in life (well, death) just happens to be Nikola Tesla.

Batshit crazy and (what I can only pray) was hopefully buried facing down so that everyone can continue to kiss his ass every time they flip a switch on the grid.

I only strive to continue giving everyone the 'finger' long after I am gone......just like him ;)

No problem - have a happy Tuesday, I have.  :)

Meanwhile, Liberty Reserve is mass closing down account
It is possible that :

1. "Someone" exchanged significant amount of Bitcoins to LR $ in various "mini" LR account after the "operation" is successful
2. Liberty Reserve doesn't have enough massive "reserve" to cover that up
3. Liberty Reserve goes into "maintenance" mode for 2 days until this pirate incident is clear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101955.msg1118853#msg1118853

Note :
LR is hacker's preferred payout choice during bitcoinica and other bitcoin "hack".
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=95738.0

and you chose, not to include that tidbit of information during your ranting about this, for reasons that are kind of obvious now.

sorry, man, but you're just not high on the priority list. this isn't just a simple matter of you closing your account and he's late.

he threw you off of his service, and you'll get no special treatment to get the front of the line.

like I said in btc-e's chat, spite is a very powerful motivator, and it his time to give back what you've been giving him.

thanks for finally putting this whole thing into context.

-- Smoov

Yup, he sure will teach me.....LMAO.

Ummmmmmmm if you haven't figured it out yet,  Pirate is waxing his new Bentley right now, so it will probably be a bit before he has time to get to all these payouts.  Like he said, he has money all over the place and it is a BIG process for him to close everything out.  He has money in exotic cars, strippers,  lots of good of good blow, probably some huge losses at craps(+1 Pirate as I love craps even though you probably have a terrible shot)  in Vegas and much more.  The list could be endless.    I forgot about the elevator girls at the Monte Carlo ,  that could be quite an investment in itself.  In any event,  I am sure he will get it all sorted out.   

interesting find.  would love to have on bitlane on DonkDown radio on Wed.

Well, it's not you who has 2500 of his coins, right?

I never invested in pirate because I don't think anyone can promise a 7% weekly return, but that last statement is all I need to know he's a scumbag. Even if he pays back, which I doubt, why would anyone want to do business with someone who makes comments like that?

I recommend to concentrate on identifying and finding pirateat40. Collect and write down whatever information you have that could help finding him.

Prepare for legal action. He needs prosecution. And so do his henchmen. We all know pretty well who they are, at least as far as their bitcointalk.org identities go.

We may have to wait for another few days, until even the most gullible people recognize beyond doubt that it was a scam, but let's be prepared as soon as possible.

might be useful...

http://www.corporationwiki.com/Texas/McKinney/trendon-shavers/101281327.aspx (http://www.corporationwiki.com/Texas/McKinney/trendon-shavers/101281327.aspx)

GPUMAX is a registered company? Is this The GPUMAX we know here?

Apparently so. Trendon's listed as a director, along with those other two...

The other directors also run this company:
http://jqgreetings.com/

You mean that someone that planned on running a multi-million dollars scam registered officially so everyone could see who he is?

i guess it was not planed as scam initially. the business (whatever it is) was too complex at the end. at the moment he tries to get the coins back, hopefully and then he will start with his next business. but price is high at the moment maybe he is waiting for a crash of the market if the crowd start to thinking it was scam. but bitcoin is not bitcoin as a year ago. it is much more stronger now and so many scams did happen. one more or less will not affect the market anymore.

Of course not. Apparently the registration procedures are extremely lax in that place in Texas. There is no information on a Trendon T. Shavers, not even his age. It seems questionable that any person with that name really exists.

In any case, pirateat40 is not that stupid.

Also, who said that pirateat40 is Trendon Shavers? Was it perhaps pirateat40 himself? LOL

What website were you looking at? ;p

Name Age Location   
T####### T Shavers ## M#######, TX

SHAVERS, TRENDON    101078   09/21/1982   THEFT O/20 U/500 BY CHECK

Since I don't know how things work in the US, I don't know how to judge this comment. Do you actually know anything about company registration, or are you just randomly making up facts. I really can't tell.

Where I live, the government makes sure who the partners are before registering an LLC. However they don't actively audit the company address or ask for any documents proving that you actually have permission to do business from the address you provide, so it's perfectly possible to run a scam operation if you are going to run in the end. But I have created companies in another country, and they were pretty anal about the location information. Maybe Texas swings the other direction and doesn't even ask for an ID number, but I highly doubt it. How do they even prove you actually are the same person who is liable for taxes?

Before the troll wars began, I sincerely believed pirate was running a scheme, but even though the troll wattage is about the same on both sides, I feel that a lot of inaccurate information is given by the team ponzi in an authoritative an condescending attitude, which is getting on my nerves regardless of pirate being a ponzi (or not).

In the US it varies a lot by state but it is pretty easy to register a company and states don't do any real validation.

https://ourcpa.cpa.state.tx.us/coa/servlet/cpa.app.coa.CoaGetTp?Pg=tpid&Search_Nm=GPUMAX%20TECHNOLOGIES%2C%20LLC%20&Button=search&Search_ID=32046504976 (https://ourcpa.cpa.state.tx.us/coa/servlet/cpa.app.coa.CoaGetTp?Pg=tpid&Search_Nm=GPUMAX%20TECHNOLOGIES%2C%20LLC%20&Button=search&Search_ID=32046504976)

In the case of GPUMax a registered agent was used which means the paperwork was filed by a third party.  You will notice the filing is innacurate as the "principal place of business" is the registered agent's address (a common inaccuracy). The state should ensure that principal place of business is the principal place of business.  The simplest check would be to ensure it isn't the same address as a registered agent.  Also the information on directors or owners is missing.

Registered agents tend to be even more lax than states as they get paid per submission and don't want to discourage paying customers.  You can usually have one file for you by submitting info online without providing any proof of anything.  Hell you probably could find one which would register "We steal your money, LLC" with sole owner being "John Hamburgler Doe".

For the record, I not saying this means it is a scam, or that the identity of "Pirate" can't be determined.  I am just saying a company registration doesn't mean a whole lot, especially not for newly formed companies (which is why banks will often require guarantor if business has less than three years of records including tax filings).

Funny... I'm an attorney in TX and would be itching to do the legal action if in fact it turned out that this guy is Pirate@40 AND it turns out that he stole the funds.  Or perhaps work as a consultant for whatever firm was hired to prosecute.

http://www.texasmarriagerecords.org/marriage-of-trendon-shavers-and-ashley-snyder.html
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:gkSMrRLj33IJ:www.mylife.com/c-2311377978+%22SHAVERS,+TRENDON%22&hl=en&client=opera&prmd=imvns&strip=1
http://www.co.midland.tx.us/da/hotcheckwarrants/list/?lname=sz

Anyone know how to find out if this is not just a case of identity theft before we ruin his life completely?

How about not playing the fool, and waiting for the payouts? He said a week or 2, it's been 2-3 days.

Either way, I feel sorry for Shavers and his entire family.

I imagine it won't be too much longer before the random pizza deliveries and prank phone calls start.

Childish kiddie shit pranks. Anyone doing this needs to grow up and move out of the basement.

So has anybody so much as heard from him since last night?

also, unless you can for certain verify info it's not really good to list it up.

That marriage certificate has confliting info from the one filed with the clerk of courts, in date and maiden name....

Anyhows. Anyone who would be a potential victem if that be the case has all of his info already. And likely more accurate than what is available on the interwebs.

For someone reportedly turning 30, that would be an early start ::)

That's probably his date of birth.

Edit: if you click the link, it is indeed listed as as his date of birth. Not the date of the offense.

Where did he say that? What exactly did he say?

Does interest apply to this delay period? Or is it frozen?

Still talking smack but too cowardly to put your money where your mouth is I see.   Come on big man, there's a free 250BTC waiting for you over in Matthew's thread.  How can you possibly lose, right?

Until you actually show a little backbone, shut up with your nonsense.

Fuck me...
I am the ONLY one showing any backbone.

No, you are the only one working against their own interest.

Calling him out in such a way won't help you.

Dont forget, if pirate doesnt pay bitlane in 14 days (iirc?), he will lose his 5000BTC bet with Vandroiy.

Either Pirate is running a scam, and bitlane wont get paid anyhow, or he is  legit, and not paying bitline within 14 days will cost pirate a pretty penny. Bitlane doesnt have much to lose from yelling and being his usual noisy self.

Pirate may choose to pay him at the very last minute, while everyone else may be paid out tomorrow.

Yeah, but being paid after 2 weeks seems like a pretty minor issue compared to not being paid out at all. I think it will take  a whole lot more to shut bitlane up than threatening him with 2 weeks delay ;)

Considering that this includes interest up to the payout point (correct?), that would quite a punishment, poor bitlane. Logic 101? anyone? follow up on this.

Vandroiy doubled your payout in his bet. That makes paying you a lot more profitable than not paying you, in case you were the last one to be paid. In which case you'd make more interest than anybody else.

The other likely outcome is that nobody gets paid. Then vandroiy and other bettors would make money.

Are all these bets besides the ones matthew is doing are with pirate?

No he would only pay interest up to the point the account was closed in which case delaying is a form of punishment.

Is that how things work on this forum and in this community now ?

Last time I checked, it was theft. Feel free to have a look at the lending form yourself to confirm.

The withholding of my funds has been done knowingly and out of spite.

Looks like a clear-cut case from where I am standing.

OH....and as far as labeling him or his account with a SCAMMER Tag.....What would be the point ?
He's too much of a coward to post here anyways and hasn't done so, since replying to a post about 'The Last Supper' in Vegas.

Does he truly believe that this will end up being consequence-free if he decides to 'make an example of me' and not return my funds as promised ?

HE PAYS INTEREST FOR EVERY SECOND MY FUNDS ARE NOT RETURNED BASED ON MY LAST ACCOUNT BALANCE.
Or he faces defaulting, even if only by a little bit.

HE DECIDES NOT TO PAY ME AT ALL.
There are already 'balls in play' that will surely put a further stain on his already tarnished record.


I have ALL of the ammunition. He simply has about $25k USD worth of BTC that he owes me.

It's now time for him to decide if 'the juice' is worth 'the squeeze' ......

FUUU... that's a lot of bitcoins... that's someone's yearly worth of salary, at the service gas station.  I hope you are loaded bitlane, have a good job/investment income... throwing a huge amount like that.

I find my self wondering more an more whether bitlane and pirateat40 are sock puppets of the same guy.  First bitlane for no real good reason causes a supposed run on pirate's operation forcing him to shut it down.  Next he provides a convenient excuse for pirate to make himself scares due to what appear to be fairly blatant threats.  These two things are actually pretty useful at the end of a Ponzi.  Just say'in.

A 'run' on his operation for 114 BTC originally ? Serious ?

I didn't force anything, all one needs do is look at how many people ignore me. Who would EVER listen to me ?

.....of course, this is why when in doubt, I have a Mod/Admin verify the accuracy of a quoted private message or the possibility of my having multiple accounts (both proven in my favor) so that I can further ram it down someone's throat.

If hes like Jonathan Ryan Owens hes just a broke douchebag and theres fuck all you can do when he scams besides concrete boots.

Interesting, a bitcoin conspiracy theory.

In any case, it looks like the scheme has collapsed and its current investors have just lost their investment.

bitlane, just wondering why did you give Pireat40 your bitcoins in the first place?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLtyV1WkFFo

To help you understand :p

Greed, just like everyone else. Bitcoins earned or won are far sweeter than Bitcoins purchased.

His account is closed so wouldn't get interest. Facts 101?

You're showing something a little bit lower than your backbone.

Close tho...

-- Smoov

 ;D

Get used to the thought that the pirate could not care less. Nobody will see a penny.

Still so sure, have you bet yet?

Bitlane, no one has a problem with you. Relax. The community wont turn on you. You are a victim in my eyes.

Answer my question.

But if you want me so badly to bet, I'll do it. I don't qualify, but if Matthew takes it anyway …

Where is that bet thread? I don't remember the conditions. Was that the bet where no bitcoins are moved until after the bet is decided?

Matthew, if you read this, please explain to me why you are offering this bet, although it is becoming more obvious day after day that you will lose it. What are your intentions? Are you planning to drop out and disappear if you lose?

I found myself wondering the exact same thing as I was reading the original post. To put it bluntly, bitlane is acting way too dumb for someone who supposedly has $25k to throw around on adventures like this. If I were pulling off a scam of this proportion (I heard pirate had 500k BTC?), I'd definitely have quite a few sock puppets set up to cause as much doubt/confusion, false hope, and general trolling as possible starting right about now. The scammer would definitely want to be in control of the dialogue.

Also, if it's a ~$5 million scam, I imagine he's preparing for more than a few private investigators (and perhaps even law enforcement) to start looking for him, so I imagine he's put quite a bit of effort into making sure he's as anonymous as possible, setting up false trails, etc.

gpumax.com, which is linked from his profile, is registered to:

Don Shrents
5100 Eldorado Pkwy
Mckinney, Texas 75070

Which seems to be a fake name at a strip mall (http://goo.gl/maps/i3iPA). Why would someone register a domain under a fake name instead of just anonymizing it like most people do? Maybe he wanted to save a few $, or maybe he wanted to remain anonymous in case of a legal inquiry with the registrar.

Several of his investors claim to know his "his name, birthdate, current city, and a previous city he lived in", saying it's "publicly available to anyone who cares enough to thoroughly research it" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.400). I'm no PI, but I found nothing of the sort, and I imagine I'm not the only one who was curious. If this is a scam, I'd hypothesize they are puppets, as well.

His OTC ratings might be a good place to figure out how "real" he is, also... would any of the people who claimed to trade with him over PayPal be willing to reveal the email he used? Are they real people, or part of the ruse?

I definitely don't have the time/skills to dive deeply into this, but it does make me wish I'd decided to be an investigative reporter :)

how deep does the rabbit hole go?

I would bet OBAMA planned this somehow!

He'd blame it on Bush anyways...

-- Smoov

can't wait till the market takes dump #2.

pirateat40 is a daytrader, he needs a low price to buy back all the coins. at the moment he has not enough coins but fiat money.

me too  :o

The market will do exactly the opposite of what he wants. Watch.

You dont know that, and its very unlikely. But if indeed Pirate doesnt have most of the coins he owes, he and his investors are in deep trouble. Good luck trying to buy 10s or 100s of 1000s of coins without BTC exchange rate shooting through the roof.

Moreover, whatever pirate is doing, and assuming its not a ponzi/scam, if he needs to trade btc for $ or vice versa, it would be in his interest not to say if he is long or short on coins and in fact give the opposite impression. Just saying he needs to buy 100K BTC would cause a huge price increase. Likewise, if he plans to sell out, he would most likely say or imply the opposite to ensure a better price for his coins.

To think Pirate is just showing you his cards is naive, or assuming Pirate is naive.

I was on IRC and his manner is like a typical daytrader which think he found out the holy grail of trading. I assume it is very likely he is a daytrader with a forex history.

He's either a little short or very short. But he's delaying his payments and increasing his debt to the tune of 7% a week. "A little short" considering the total amount is most likely still in the thousands or tens of thousands. Whether he plans to make this money mainly through trading, or through GPUmax or though other businesses, or though a combination of things, remains to be seen. Looking at the valuation graph I'd say he's trying to play the market, but too many people are looking to load up coins. We will see where this is going within 10 days tops.

That's stupid. It's a multi-million dollar ponzi scheme, not a middle eastern revolution :)

Hope you get your BTC back.

That's a good call.
But, "Trendon Shavers" seems a likely figure to be pirate, and the photos we have of him (via facebook) match the one from vegas.

Could very well be fake but usually when I come up with a fake ID I don't give it a criminal record for check fraud.

At this point another major way would be to buy back his own devalued debt: FOO.PPPPT "bonds" are on sale at less than 50% of nominal price, and many PPT holders are selling at a discount (which will grow by the hour as the panic level rises).

I can also imagine where the figure 7 (percent interest) are coming form. In forex it is possible to earn 1-2% daily interest if you are a very good daytrader. Let us assume he will pay out a interest of 1% per day. Then it is not 5% a week like in forex (So/Mo to Fr), it is 7% a week with bitcoin (Mo to So).

I'm not into that market but wouldn't he need BTC to pull that out?

That would be an scheme to make more profit, in case he had enough coins already to pay his debt. If that's the case, props to him.

That is a myth perpetuated to lure in fresh meat that is required to feed the brokers. (coz those who were lured in earlier are chewed and thrown out by now).

He has much more incentive to sell his debt than to buy it.

It is true! Ask Maria...  ;D

Yeah, what happened to maria?
She used to be so vocal on the forums but i somehow lost track of what went on.

you can still setup your trading environment with her to improve your trading skills.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96059.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96059.0)

Aah, same old, same old.
Shouting from her ivory tower..
:)

No, I don't think so. Buying his debt at discount is one way he could actually avoid technically defaulting. For example (using exaggerated numbers to make the math easier):

1. Suppose pirate has taken 50,000 BTC in direct loans, and 500,000 BTC via passthroughs.
2. Suppose pirate, after paying weekly interest, still has 150,000 BTC in his bitcoin wallet.
3. Suppose pirate pays back the direct loans, leaving him with 100,000 BTC.
3. Suppose the passthrough shares are being sold for 10% of their face value.
4. Suppose pirate buys all the passthrough shares for 50,000 BTC, leaving him with 50,000 BTC.
5. Suppose pirate pays back the passthroughs, 50,000 BTC at a time.
6. The coins pass through, back to pirate, who then pays back the next tranche of 50,000 BTC.
7. Repeat ten times, and pirate has technically not defaulted (although he has screwed those who sold their passthrough shares at 10% of their face value).

Sure, there are a lot of suppositions and extreme figures above. But something like this is not impossible.

I am concerned this could happen.  This could be pulled off more easily if pirate colluded with some of his top supporters (BurtWagner, imsaguy etc)  Has anyone seen any suspicious  purchases of pirate debt?

As I said above, this can only happen if Pirate had the BTC funds to refund everybody but still decided not to do so in time. He cannot buy his own debt in BTC and remain solvent in BTC to do refunds, unless he had an excess of BTC in the first place. This alone cannot work.

If he pulls that, props to him. That would mean he played insolvent and fooled a lot of people to great profit. I wouldn't bet on it though.

First, your scenario can't avoid a technical default, since he already *has* technically defaulted. There is at least one 100% documented payment he has missed and there's no evidence the repayments that were supposed to start have started.

Also, do you think that's better for Pirate than this scenario in which he sells:

1. Suppose Pirate has taken 50,000 BTC in direct loans, and 200,000 BTC via passthroughs but also holds 300,000 in passthroughs himself. (These are almost totally free for him to buy, the money just flows back to him.)
2. Suppose Pirate, after paying weekly interest still has 150,000 BTC in his wallet.
3. Suppose pirate doesn't pay back the direct loans, leaving him with 150,000 BTC. But he also sells 50,000 worth of direct loans that don't actually exist at 50% of face value, netting him an additional 25,000 BTC.
4. Suppose Pirate sells all his passthrough shares himself at 50% of face value, netting an additional 150,000 BTC for him.
5. Suppose Pirate doesn't pay back anything.
6. Pirate now has 150,000 + 25,000 + 150,000 = 325,000 BTC.
7. Pirate has technically defaulted, but he also has a *lot* more money than in your scenario.

In your scenario, Pirate winds up with about 50,000 BTC. In mine, he winds up with 325,000 BTC. And we both start with him in the same position (except in my scenario, he has been buying his own pass throughs for awhile now, which is certainly possible). My number for the discount on Pirate debt is more realistic than yours (50% versus 90%). It's definitely in Pirate's interest to *sell* Pirate obligations.

Banned. With a vengeance.

LOL. IKR, running away with people's money is extremely lucrative.

Ah, OK, I actually hadn't gotten a chance to read up on the threads behind that name. Now that I have (and did a bit more Googling), everything does seem to add up. I almost feel bad for him - I hope this is a temporary delay and doesn't end up in court.

There is also the possibility that whoever's behind pirateat40 is impersonating Trendon, but that does seem somewhat unlikely.

Essentially, Pirate can pay everyone back or he can run off with somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 million dollars. This is pretty much the way it is regardless of whether Pirate was running a ponzi scheme or not.

Yes. But he has incentive to pay ppl back if it's legit bussiness

NO LEGIT BUSINESS BORROWS AT 7% PER WEEK

Now after saying such a banality here, prepare to furnish beyond reasonable doubt proof of your words. (That how it works on this forum)

Of course, if he's running a ponzi scheme he almost certainly doesn't have the option to pay everyone back because he doesn't have enough funds. His only options are to carry it on to the bitter end and default without making any money or to default before he's exhausted his reserves and run away with the rest.

Agreed. Pirate actually defaulted on Monday.

But in the terms of his bet with Vandroiy he has two weeks grace. And in the terms of Matthew's bet he has three weeks grace.

Agreed. If pirate's aim is to end up with as many BTC as possible, your scenario makes sense. But if his aim is to end up with a substantial profit, yet still be able to claim to have repaid all the loans, my scenario could do it (at the extremes of possibility, admittedly).

Also, pirates are not generally known for running legitimate businesses.

If we were to be judged based only on our forum nicks, you'd already be at an extreme disadvantage.

According to this (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=98225.msg1084139#msg1084139) message "Everyone on the pro-pirate team says he is pretty rich in USD anyway so he can take some BTC losses or W/E". Is that really true? Then why do they think he would pay a fortune to borrow other peoples money? It's kind of amusing that we're on the 3. day after he should have started paying, and some people still believe they'll get the money. He would have to do some pretty cleaver tricks to get out of this, the only thing I'm certain is that it does not involve paying 300k+ bitcoins.

No.  I've not seen anyone say Pirate was USD rich.

Not really. If he pays people back X bitcoins, he has X bitcoins fewer than if he doesn't pay people back. That's true regardless of how he acquired those bitcoins. If he can get away with not paying people back, his incentive not to pay them back is the same. (Of course, if he doesn't have the bitcoins, paying people back is not an option.)

The point I'm trying to make is that even if you don't think Pirate was running a ponzi scheme and think we actually made huge profits, it doesn't follow that he'll make the promised payouts. He could still default, and for basically the same reason.

AT THE SAME TIME not judging by name at all puts you in a similar kind of disadvantage.

I can't wait to see how the "terms" of those bets will morph.

i smell big trouble...

All the signs were there, yet people still could not overcome their greed.

Now you do. I'm saying it. I believe I've said it before, in the form that I believe he has been selling "his" bitcoins already over a longer period of time.

By the way, this also makes it difficult to predict the bitcoin valuation over the next few days and weeks. Some people were speculating that the pirate would sell bitcoins and thus depress the price, but this will not happen.

Of course, those who mistakenly believe they will get their bitcoins back will believe that the bitcoin price will fall, because at least some of the "investors" would sell their newly gained bitcoins. But this is a fairy tale.

+10

Vandroiy's bet terms have been published. They cannot be altered.

Have you heard of Jimmy Buffet?

but what we need is a hedge for his bet! will do you do or should i do this?  ;D

And this week or next there is a mad rush of new investors from the media releases, enter the running of the bulls bitcoin style, there will be blood.

You mean invest BTC5,000 in the BullShit Trust and wait until they double? Go ahead.

that was ironic, sorry I forgot the tags!

Hehe, no problem.

Would you still want me to bet?

And why did you not answer the question: Where did he say "a week or 2"? And what exactly did he say?

Don't overlook that that was my question to which you answered, but which you did not actually answer.

From his original announcement:


I think he said 1-2weeks on IRC on monday as well.

I think the bottleneck in this process is the market prices, no? 

*facepalm.jpg*

The bottleneck is that pirate is keeping all the coins.

DING DING DING!!!!



Someone finally gets it..



The panic didnt go as well as planned..   

Bitlane, if he defaults and you are looking to find him, my first suggestion would be to investigate Somalia, lots of work for a pirate there.

That sounds quite different. The Monday in his announcements has already passed. His announcement says in a somewhat cloudy way that withdraws would begin on Monday (day before yesterday) and would be spread out over this week. So, according to his words, the last payment could be delayed until the coming Sunday.

This should indicate that something is wrong, as there has been no payment whatsoever, just as predicted by several people here, including myself. Of course some will still hope that he suddenly begins to pay, and some will keep hoping that until Sunday and even later.

My personal stance is that I never believed anything the pirate said, but he will still be measured by his words.

Looking at chart, most of volume was in 13-10$ range during the dump. It is reasonable to assume that if our miracle worker indeed has dumped lots of BTC at "high prices" his average would be at best about 12$

Ok.. continue your train of thought please..


If he's legit, he has to buy back..

So.. at an average of 12 say..  he would need it to sink a bit further to truly gain any ground when rebuying.. depending on liquidity..


What are your thoughts?

Now imagine Atlas would have been the one making Matt's bet. (cue changing of the bet terms every 30 seconds)

Somalian Pirates We~!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1_NpLKnWLU

back at ya
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=249RL82kjP4

this too

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTMRJUH1FdA

It's also possible he's expecting the price to go back up before he can dump again and buy cheaper. It's obvious he doesn't have enough coins to pay everyone back right now, and I'll bet he caught a ton of coins @ $8, but it wasn't enough.