Bitcoin Forum

Please do not post a pick. For suchmoon's promo.

We are going to have a one pick no change policy as keeping track of changes is too hard.

I am setting this up  ahead of the current thread which should have a result in 2 hours or so.

Self modded  in respect to seriouscoin

Alh offered to relieve my self imposed burden of always picking -1.11% for myself  but I will keep it which is the -1.01 to -1.25% range

With no switching allowed waiting until 300 blocks are done  to make a pick seems like a good idea and cutting off around block 1000  also make sense.

So no picking from 0 to 300   blocks

picking from 301 to 1000 blocks

closed from 1000 blocks to 2016 blocks  .  

last thread was a carry over.
No winners
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1012578.msg10985743#msg10985743

Diff was -3.71%

I am leaving this for revisions and changes. Suchmoon will do a new   promo

OFFICIAL RULES FOR THE MOST ACCURATE GUESS REWARD


are here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10550525#msg10550525




Rule changes are no pick switches.  One pick and  stick with the pick.



Pick between blocks 301 and 1000------------------- subject to revision.

the next reward deadline 2:00 AM UTC, April 26, 2015 as per suchmoon.

I have not made the blue  highlight   set yet.  but the one pick is set.

I am thinking the  wait for 300 block pick for 700blocks  increases spec post and reduces pick posts.

Feel free to spec for a while.  I think we will do new picks starting on the 300th block made .

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-3.40%)  is the next prediction current price is  225 usd.


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,989,490,939 (-3.40%)
Adjust time:   After 2016 Blocks, About 14.1 days
Hashrate(?):   332,607,933 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   14:40 (4.5 minutes ago)

It is nice to see a negative difficulty again last week.  I'm guessing that means were in for a little bit of a positive this week.  Will be interesting to watch.

Some day I we should see some new gear coming online, but with low price of btc I'm still not sure when we will see next gen start taking over.

I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.

yeah I think if we delay until block 300 we can all get a feel for it.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is -3.39%

 but it is only 11 blocks in this is based on current and last diff


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,996,464,248 (-3.39%)
Adjust time:   After 2005 Blocks, About 14.1 days
Hashrate(?):   331,173,351 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   16:0 (2.6 minutes ago)




www.bitcoincharts.com is  at -0.05% or 47582393724  this is more of a real world number


Waiting  until tues is a good idea to do picks.


The slight real world of bitcoincharts makes sense to me since all players did better with the diff change.

If the trends continues, this one should be up.  But with summer in the northern hemisphere starting, we could aslo be seeing the beginning of a downturn.  Waiting for 300 blocks is a good idea, no reason to jump the gun.

Unless people want to make 100% pure guess without seeing the current trend.

Well it will be within like a 6% increase or decrease as the only thing that is changing the market is the abundance of used miners.

Nothing new to hit the markets yet. My guess is there might be some hash that comes online and pushes difficulty early but -3 to +3 is where it'll be at.

there is over clocking and down clocking factors.  I just went from 1750gh  to 1985gh via freq change  that is a 13% uptick. the lower difficulty will offset the power efficiency loss of the overclocking. As my watts per gh went from .57 to .60

Bitwisdom already went up a decent amount with it being so new:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,410,388,208 (-2.52%)
Adjust time:    After 1973 Blocks, About 13.6 days
Hashrate(?):    337,500,209 GH/s

I like the idea of waiting after the first 300 blocks before taking the guesses, without switches.  Simple and more thoughtful than gambling.

That being said, I think the down trend will continue with temperatures warming up and btc price not going up...

Well it saves me a lot of time and far less confusion.  Plus we all get a chance to see some trending


http://btc.blockr.io/charts 

 the april 19th is not up yet should be 144 and will be from both adjustments

the april 20th will be purely this adjustment.

There will be a big rush to get the choice positions.

yeah tues at block 300 there will be a rush, but waiting until block 600 or so could still be smart.

This is chart of last difficulty estimates evolution. Bitcoinwisdom is mostly wrong at the start due to wrong algo. Closest estimate had nextdifficulty.com - it is using last 1000 blocks for estimations.
https://i.imgur.com/s5a6rDL.jpg

That is why the idea of using the 300 -1000 zone for your pick makes more sense.
Right now we are getting a shit coin rush on nice hash so rates are pretty low.  by the 300th block that may go by by and we get a better idea of the diff guess.

Going past 1000 blocks or roughly the  26th of april would make it too easy.

so 300-1000 blocks kind of works.

I'll take 2.01-2.25% this time.

Methinks once the altcoin hash comes back the difficulty will climb.

please remember no picks till tues.


As a courtesy   I will allow this one to be placed on hold.  Please everyone hold back for about 200 blocks or so.


http://btc.blockr.io/charts


 shows 145 blocks for 4-19 which is pretty much 0.0% to .7 %

Without a price spike, we're going negative. You heard it here first.

Coming to end of first night of new difficulty slowly moving up a little:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,644,709,990 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:    After 1936 Blocks, About 13.3 days

This difficulty was reduced April 19, 2015 to 47,610,564,513.  On Apr 17, 2014 the difficulty was 6,978,842,650.  That means your hash rate, from April 17, 2014 to April 19, 2015 needed to increase 6.8 times to mine the same amount of coin.  I plan on getting out WAAAAAAAAY ahead of the difficulty before the blocks halve and also have electricity rates of 3.4 cents per kWH to make the block halving much easier to bare if the price of bitcoin is the same as what it is today ($ 238.00).

Bitcoin difficulty on Apr. 17 2014 was 6,978,842,650 [BTC-e $485.58].  On Apr 19, 2015 it was 47,610,564,513 [BTC-e $220.43].  That means the difficulty rose 6.8 times more than what it was a year prior. [Your hash rate would have to be 6.8 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Apr. 05 2014 was 6,119,726,089 [BTC-e $467.78].  On Apr 05 2015 it was 49,446,390,688 [BTC-e $257.01].  That means the difficulty rose 8.07 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 8.07 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Mar 24 2014 was 5,006,860,589 [BTC-e $588.71].  On Mar 22 2015 it was 46,717,549,645 [BTC-e $266.36].  That means the difficulty rose 9.3 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 9.3 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Feb 17 2014 was 3,129,573,175 [BTC-e $612.00].  On Feb 22 2015 it was 46,684,376,317 [BTC-e $230.23].  That means the difficulty rose 14.9 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 14.9 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jan 24 2014 was 2,193,847,870 [BTC-e $774.98].  On Jan 27 2015 it was 41,272,873,895 [BTC-e $252.58].  That means the difficulty rose 18 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 18 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jan 02 2014 was 1,418,481,395 [BTC-e $782.00].  On Dec 30 2014 it was 40,640,955,017 [BTC-e $308.86].  That means the difficulty rose 29 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 29 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Nov 29 2013   was 707,408,283 [BTC-e $1,019.60].  On Dec 02 2014 it was 40,007,470,271 [BTC-e $377.50].  That means the difficulty rose 56.5 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 56.5 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Oct 26 2013 was 390,928,788 [BTC-e $171.37].  On Oct 23 2014 it was 35,985,640,265 [BTC-e $354.17].  That means the difficulty rose 92 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 92 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Sep 25 2013 was 148,819,200 [BTC-e $122.55].  On Sep 25 2014 it was 34,661,425,924 [BTC-e $401.91].  That means the difficulty rose 232.9 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 232.9 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Aug 24 2013 was 65,750,060 [BTC-e $106.34].  On Aug 31 2014 it was 27,428,630,902 [BTC-e $475.90].  That means the difficulty rose 417.1 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 417.1 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jul 22 2013 was 31,256,961 [BTC-e $84.50].  On Jul 25 2014 it was 18,736,441,558 [BTC-e $594.47].  That means the difficulty rose 599.4 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 599.4 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jun 29 2013 was 21,335,329 [BitStamp $88.83].  On Jun 29 2014 it was 16,818,461,371 [BitStamp $599.86].  That means the difficulty rose 788.3 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 788.3 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

The numbers above reveal at one time we had as much as a 788.3 times increase in difficulty over a year's time.  That number has reduced to 6.8 times more than what we had the year prior.  The amount it increases year over year is being reduced every difficulty change quite significantly.  I think now is the best time to get into mining than this time last year.  I just started myself on September 22nd last year.  By September this year, the difficulty might be around 64,000,000,000.  That would be less than 2 times what it was September of 2014.  

Like I've told others, I think I got in at the right time.  I started out with 7 TH/s September 22, 2014.  I ought to have 210 TH/s by September this year.  That would be 30 times what I started out with September a year ago.  However, the difficulty will have only come a little shy of two times year over year.  I'm hoping to have 20 times that number in September of 2016 at 4,200 TH/s.  And again, the difficulty might be 2 or 3 times what it was the year over year for September 2016 but I will have done a 20 times increase.  I'll stop for a while somewhere in between 5,000 and 10,000 TH/s to recoup all of my investment and then some.  Then start again...

If you look at the numbers below [curtesy of https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty)] you can see what I see.  For example:

On May 24, 2014 the difficulty was 10,455,720,138.  Do you honestly think it will be close to 10 times that at 100.4 Billion this coming May 24th of 2015?  I seriously doubt it.
On Jun 29, 2014 the difficulty was 16,818,461,371.  Do you honestly think it will be close to 10 times that at 160.8 Billion on June 29, 2015?  I seriously doubt it.
On Aug 31, 2014 the difficulty was 27,428,630,902.  Does one really believe it will be close to 10 times this at 270.4 Billion on August 31, 2015?  I seriously doubt it.

Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s

Yes, there is plenty of talk of the 3rd generation chips (rigs) coming out by the Summer of this year (2015).  The power efficiency and hash rate of these 3rd generation rigs remains to be seen.  Will 3rd generation rigs encourage miners who stopped mining to start back up again because of their power costs being above 15 cents per kWH?  More than likely.  Especially, if the price of bitcoin remains at the $235.00 to $335.00 level.  

If bitcoin price is higher than $335.00 by the end of November, 2015, we could definitely see more miners wanting to come back into the fray.  The only issue is will they be able to buy these 3rd generation rigs from those who will manufacture them?  The demand for power efficient 3rd generation rigs could be quite high.  The 3rd and 4th quarter of 2015 will be a very interesting time of year indeed for the miners.

Ah the joys of statistical noise! I'm no better even after calculating all of the statistical variance numbers for a network seeing steady changes (and that's not what we see of course :D). Still, it's fun guessing!

And bitwisdom slowly is creeping up with btc @ around 225:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,678,861,755 (-1.96%)
Adjust time:    After 1899 Blocks, About 13.1 days
Hashrate(?):    339,442,806 GH/s

Well people are  renting from nicehash and westhash to mine an alt coin.  close to 7ph   7ph/338ph = 2%

We need to see how long this event lasts.  3 days would be nice. 1 week would be outstanding.

Frankly this alt coin pulling rate from btc is going to happen again and again and again. Not sure if it is good or bad in the long run.  But I am all BTC so I just rent my gear to nice or west hash and make 0.015 or more for the time being.



Oh bitmaintech announced a s4+ a very interesting price point and piece of gear. I wonder how long they will keep it around this machine represents the ending of the s-3 chip.  They managed to squeeze it down to .58 watts.  which for the s-3 chip is very good. but it is not as good as an s-5

Yes, I saw that several hours ago.

I worry for Bitmaintech when they come out with this rig several months after the S5.  It's just not good for THEIR business.  They should come out with both of them at the same time.  This way they have a better chance of selling the larger form factor with PSU included.  We may not see the 3rd generation until late August or September I'm afraid.  They will want to squeeze this out as long as possible to sell all of the S4+'s they can.  I believe they had a hard time selling all of batch two of the S4 before coming out with the S5 only a couple of months later.  At least they came out with the large form factor a little earlier than last year.  Maybe they will do better with it.

I have no need for the S4+.  I could use the boards to replace my boards in the older S4 Batch 2.  I would be willing to spend money to replace the boards in all five of my S4's.  They stand a better chance of making more money if they would do this.  I know plenty of miners with S4's who do this.  However, the PSU in the present S4 is the issue preventing them from doing this I'm sure.  Maybe they should sell the PSU with the boards as a possible upgrade kit.

I look at the current conditions as a shipwreck but I and many others are on good sturdy lifeboats waiting for rescue.  We have food water all we need to survive for the moment.  I have only new gen gear. It turns a very small profit over power cost. I hang in waiting for  a price spike (a rescue from the lifeboat) .  I have been doing this method for almost 14 months. 

Breaking even  or very small profits as price of btc has dwindled from 814 usd  in feb 2014 to current 225 in apr 2015. 

I wasn't following this, but I think the original S4 was supposed to be undervolted to roughly that level? Then they removed that option from the firmware IIRC.

Anyway, I don't think I'll be rushing to buy the S4+, not at this price at least.

Congrats everyone on the diff drop, and the rollover should make it interesting in this round.

Yeah this is good if you have power under 7 cents and 205 volts or more for power.

I think the s4+ would have to be cut in half for price for people to consider it. Unless someone gets a bulk buy deal at an amazing price.

The only hardware floating around for now will be the stuff that is already out there being used.

Hashrates might change a little as the newest sha-256 alts come start to go full PoS. So we'll probably end around 350-360PH/s also depending on if price goes up for Bitcoin.

Midday bitwisdom update.  It went down slightly, but a lot of people are on  nicehash or rentals.  So hard to tell effect once earnings there drop.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,645,374,782 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:    After 1845 Blocks, About 12.8 days

well I am getting paid 0.015 a th at westhash to mine my 2 avalon 4.1's I cranked them to about  2.24th about1.12 th each.  when west and nice hash go to normal I will turn down to 1.8th or about .9th each.

I thinking many smaller miners do this. to the right is page 24 of a 453 page pdf .  it is the nightly pay out sheet of a very big pool f2pool.   from 1 to 23 miners are over 20th so toss them out from page 24 to 453 miners are around 20th or less keep them in.

 page 24 has  22 miners around 20 th or 440th
 page 25 has 22 miners around  20 th or 440th    

down to page 42

it has 22 miners around  10th or 220th  

 so those pages 24 to 42 = 19 pages at 22 each or 418 miners the average is 20 + 10 + 30/2  or 15th

  that is 6.270ph  in miners from 10 to 20 ph.

from pages 43 to 66 = 24 x 22  or 528 miners  between 10 and 5 th or 7.5th  that is 3.96ph

lastly from 67 to  126 or 60 x 22 = 1328 miners between 5 and 1 th or 3th   that is  3.984 ph

so 6.27ph
    3.96ph
    3.98ph

this is 14.21 ph  is between  1th and 20th on  f2pool   and owned by around 2300 miners  all of us are small enough to be nimble and shift.

So if you are wondering how nimble and shifts of hash occur.  lots of this big 72ph pool can overclock or downclock with ease  i did from pdf pages 24 to 126

here is the transaction id


https://blockchain.info/tx/b48e3c23cf78d02c2bb124e283ecef53030345d2e9b779f61e2dfdacc39ccf7f

this is a very big pool  72 ph

https://www.f2pool.com/

but well over 14ph is in people under 20th  so this pop ups and downs will happen. due to overclock underclock variance a hot alt 256 coin etc.  real growth not really I don't see much right now.


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/912/SPrwqM.png

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

a highest ever happened on blockchain: 408PH!!!

nextdifficulty.com Conservative: 1% ~Middle:1.2% Continous: 1.9 %
bitcoincharts.com   47890596929   0.6%
mining-profit.com   50943304028   7%

i love these altcoin runs - i make 10-50% more renting out, and it helps keep down the bitcoin difficulty.

though im not sure what altcoins are able to have such an effect beyond that paycoin garbage. is it possible that a nicehash renter could direct the hashrate at pools for a withholding attack - would that be profitable or serve any purpose beyond stagnating the difficulty?

It has been a heck of a ride in last 24 hours.  Wish I would have started nicehash before that even.   But at least I caught some of it.

It's a nice bonus when it happens I agree.  Fun to get a little bit extra BTC.

Nothing will ever do what paycoin did the planning and prep done by zew-gaw-paycoin was very good. Details were very well thought out by them and they pulled more then 20ph from btc during the run they did.

That was a crazy time 200 plus percent mining.  Was a wonderful time to be a miner.

Nightly Update price around 224, bitwisdom as below:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,786,231,224 (-1.73%)
Adjust time:    After 1802 Blocks, About 12.5 days

in the sunday morning before the paycoin fork, ~14 December, the price was over 30 times higher than direct mining btc!!!
~monday was double and it slowly went down to normal prices for rentals

It's tuesday here in Canada ! Mouhahahaha

I would to pick => +1,76 - +2,00%

Thanks ! :D

9:15 AM in Romania!
+1,01 to 1,25! hope i typed correctly! ;D

wasn't after block 300???

right now we are at block 233!!!

Tuesday and or 300???

You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.

well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now

-0.76 to -1.00 please

only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time!
hopefully not! ;D

the sea is very calm at the moment....

Well in less than a week, Bitmain will unplug their S4+'s to start shipping.  That would, I guess, slow the network down...

We should have seen them on network I would guess.  I would think they did a burn in test at least with them.  There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s.

I'd guess so, they say on their site they've been testing them... Sometimes in dusty areas.  That's why they may look like they're used even if they're "brand new".  :)

Yea I'm not sure how long burn in test was, their warning makes it sound longer then the spike of hash on antpool.  You can see in pic we had a day antpool gained 10 PH and then it went away:

http://s100.photobucket.com/user/notlist3d/media/antpool/antpool_zpssmf9atth.png.html?sort=3&o=0

okay 26 blocks to go

we are at (-1.24%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,020,531,643 (-1.24%)
Adjust time:   After 1741 Blocks, About 12.0 days
Hashrate(?):   361,576,356 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.3 minutes
Updated:   6:55 (3.1 minutes ago)


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

has 145 on the 19th

and 155 on the 20th   real  time numbers right now we are +1


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   353075
Total BTC   14.077M
 
Difficulty   47610564513
Estimated   48105915101 in 1741 blks
 
Network total   408589.921 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.19 / 500 s

We are  at + 1% on bitcoincharts


So the trend is plus as of right now not neg.

On nice hash we still have numbers like 0.0146 and around 5ph

Which means 5ph could switch off the alt and make us go to over 2 or 3 %

We also have the bitmaintech factor they are selling s4+ which will leave them and ship to buyers. so  maybe  2ph.

If I had to really guess instead of my -1.11%  I would pick +3.33% which is 3.26 to 3.50%

the s4+ might have been already on the network for weeks! dust will tell us! and they said it officially too!!!

maybe the spike to >60ph was s6...

We know they turned the s4+ off and replaced with s6.  They got smart and realized the 60ph spike was too greedy and backed it down via underclock. So they are close to the same hash rate but using much less power.

Any sane $ savvy company knows that they do not need to grow the network much if they simply cut power bill in ½ thats works very well.

I still say btc is very fragile right now flooding the network with hash  like what happened to alt coins last year would be very bad for BTC.


Okay we are now at 1726 so in ten blocks picks start.

Here is the list of early birds:

-1.01 to  1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick


-0.76 to  1.00% Jamphone


+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia


Amph you mention +6 as a pick I do not see it.

Now with the spots picked early  I am inclined to say they count don't do it next time and just no more picks   until  block 1716.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-1.15%) block 1726

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  (+1.06%) block 1726


So we are right now in a -1 to +1 spot    for predictions from the above  sites.

Personally I think we go to +2.22  to +3.33

Seems to be Tuesday in CA, so this time I'll try +2.51 to +2.75  :)

Many thanks for running this!

and 1 more early bird  as we are at block 1719 and block 1716 is the correct block to be at.


Here is the list of early birds:

-1.01 to  1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick


-0.76 to  1.00% Jamphone


+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia

+2.51 to 2.75% davejh


and all the early birds picked  what I would consider to be good numbers. as current number on bitcoincharts is about +1%

I am going with +5.01% to 5.25% this time around. The short term trend seems to be that the hash rate has spiked, although it may be due to good luck

---

Maybe the "good luck" we saw a few weeks ago at ant pool was actually bitmain testing the S4+ in mass

I'm going for +3.76-4.00% with a guess at 3.77%

And also the 300th block was hit two minutes ago :D

Ack... you just slid into my usual spot!  I'll take +3.51-3.75 instead.

I would like  + 2.26 through 2.50 please.  

Thanks for running it  philipma

I'm back to asking our oldest cat, who says +3.26 to +3.50.

thank you for waiting.  I will post a more complete list in a few hours.

i think we have same option ???

put me above at +1,26 to +1,50%

thank you!

Sorry, didn't know it was 300 block min AND Tuesday ;-)

Thanks Phil !

i'll go +3.01% to 3.25 thanks guys

Updating

Here is the list of early birds:

-1.01 to  -1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone





+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm keeping you here as you do not match me



+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer


+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller

+5.76 to 6.00% Amph you mentioned +6% so here you are


@ mavericklm  I am keeping you at +1.01 to +1.25%
I have -1.01 to  - 1.25%
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1031765.msg11155160#msg11155160

@ amph I do no see your 6% pick but I put you in at +5.76 to 6.00%

I believe above is up to date.

Okay no switching.  I placed last pick at block 1000 but we give leeway a little as some times site goes down.



the numbers below are a guide

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (-1.10%)

www.bitcoincharts.com   (+1.01%)

bitcoinwisdom  combines last diff numbers with current numbers and guess's the future number

bitcoincharts just attempts to show the current number.

so my best guess is 2.22 to 3.33 all of these are picked.  if I picked from remaining numbers I would go 4.01 to 4.25.
Here is why:
Both nice and west hash are still renting to alt  sha miners almost 7ph  So if real number is +1%

add  7 or 8 ph back to btc that is 2 % brings us to 3%

antminer has pull s4+ out of mining and is shipping them  so they will fire up in 3 to 6 days add 1 or 2 %

to the 3% and we are close to 4%  but I am only guessing.

If we do under -3%   or over +6%    I would be stunned.  but btc has done that to me more then 1 time.

Good luck to all

As my usual slot has gone I will take +2.76 to +3.00 please.

no problemo amigo! thx!

looks boring! just like btc price

diff wise it looks good ;D

I think I'll shoot for +1.51% to +1.75% this time.

+4.76 to +5.00% for me this round.

Good luck to all!

-1.01 to  -1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone





+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm keeping you here as you do not match me


+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer

+4.76 to 5.00% Kexket
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller

+5.76 to 6.00% Amph you mentioned +6% so here you are



@ amph I do not see your 6% pick but I put you in at +5.76 to 6.00%

I believe above is up to date.

+1.26 ----  1.50

Midday bitwisdom is continuing to go up and price is took a spike up at 234:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,838,576,127 (-1.62%)
Adjust time:    After 1673 Blocks, About 11.6 days
Hashrate(?):    363,904,848 GH/s

-1.01 to  -1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone





+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm keeping you here as you do not match me

+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer

+4.76 to 5.00% Kexket
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller

+5.76 to 6.00% Amph you mentioned +6% so here you are



@ amph I do not see your 6% pick but I put you in at +5.76 to 6.00%

I believe above is up to date.

http://bitcoincharts.com/

bitcoincharts is at +0.8%  this is the real time number so we are faster for the first 350 blocks or so.

westhash is heating up the lowest pay is 0.0142 >>>>>>>>>2300th

nicehash is also up a  bit  the lowest pay is 0.0135  >>>>>>> 5200th

   This is 7.5ph  or around 2.2%  not hashing BTC

+4.01 - +4.25 please

4.25 to 4.5%
Will be my best guess good luck to all
And mike hehe nice speed

Does anyone know what alt coin is driving these rental rates? No one on the Nicehash thread seems to know (or care that much given the increased profit percentage).

LOL Philip for the next copy'n'paste please change Kexket for Kexkey...  :D  ;)

I'm curious on this aswell.  I have not found out what coin either.

I will happily provide my hash to what ever it is with what they have paid the last couple days.

-1.01 to  -1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone



+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer
+4.01 to 4.25% Mikestang
+4.26 to 4.50% EternalWingsofGod  Corrected the 4.25 to 4.26

+4.76 to 5.00% Kexkey                   corrected misspelling
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller

+5.76 to 6.00% Amph you mentioned +6% so here you are



@ amph I do not see your 6% pick but I put you in at +5.76 to 6.00%

I believe above is up to date.

http://bitcoincharts.com/

bitcoincharts is at +0.8%  this is the real time number so we are faster for the first 350 blocks or so.

westhash is heating up the lowest pay is 0.0142 >>>>>>>>>2300th

nicehash is also up a  bit  the lowest pay is 0.0135  >>>>>>> 5200th

   This is 7.5ph  or around 2.2%  not hashing BTC

I would also like to know the mystery coin.


www.bitcoincharts.com is at (+ 0.60%)
www.bitcoinwisdom.com is at (-1.46%)     

+0.76 to +1.00

I will do another change soon thanks for the pick.

-1.26 to  -1.50%

End of night btc is riding stable around 235.  So a nice bump of around 10 dollars in one day.  Chances are we have a decent amount of home miners in the nicehash/rental market not mining btc.

But currently bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,828,736,186 (-1.64%)
Adjust time:    After 1645 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):    361,897,577 GH/s

-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone



+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer
+4.01 to 4.25% Mikestang
+4.26 to 4.50% EternalWingsofGod  Corrected the 4.25 to 4.26

+4.76 to 5.00% Kexkey                   corrected misspelling
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller

+5.76 to 6.00% Amph you mentioned +6% so here you are



@ amph I do not see your 6% pick but I put you in at +5.76 to 6.00%

I believe above is up to date.

http://bitcoincharts.com/

bitcoincharts is at +0.8%  this is the real time number so we are faster for the first 350 blocks or so.

westhash is heating up the lowest pay is 0.0142 >>>>>>>>>2300th

nicehash is also up a  bit  the lowest pay is 0.0135  >>>>>>> 5200th

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

has big numbers

4/19/2015    145 blocks------------ so even
4/20/2015    155 blocks------------ plus 11
4/21/2015    157 blocks------------ plus 13

so we are plus 24 at the  373 block mark.

  We are  pretty much trending higher then any prediction at the moment.  maybe 5%.  I see a big move in the next 2 days.

totally forgot...
well, whatever is available...
my pick is +5.26 to+5.50

thanks

Please put me down for +4.51 to 4.75%

I actually hope that no one wins because it's so negative that it again hits an empty spot!

Wow. A few slots left.

Can I take +5.51-5.75 %?

Thanks..

Lets hope for the best :D

My pick

-0.50 to -0.75

Let me try with +0.26-0.50%.

+0.51 to +0.75 % please

wait my 6% was for the previous pick(it should have ended), can we pick again?

if we can i want to go with +1.00 to +1.25%

+0.01 to +0.25% plz  :(

I didnt think , there will be so much guesses just after Tuesday.

Ill pick from -0.26 to -0.50%.

Regards...

-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift


+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.00 to 1.25% Amph-------------corrected due to my error
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer
+4.01 to 4.25% Mikestang
+4.26 to 4.50% EternalWingsofGod  Corrected the 4.25 to 4.26
+4.51 to 4.75% alh
+4.76 to 5.00% Kexkey                   corrected misspelling
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller
+5.26 to 5.50% Biodom
+5.51 to 5.75% reactive4ce

+5.76 to 6.00% Amph you mentioned +6% so here you are



@ amph I do not see your 6% pick but I put you in at +5.76 to 6.00%

I believe above is up to date.

http://bitcoincharts.com/

bitcoincharts is at +0.8%  this is the real time number so we are faster for the first 350 blocks or so.

westhash is heating up the lowest pay is 0.0142 >>>>>>>>>2300th

nicehash is also up a  bit  the lowest pay is 0.0135  >>>>>>> 5200th

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

has big numbers

4/19/2015    145 blocks------------ so even
4/20/2015    155 blocks------------ plus 11
4/21/2015    157 blocks------------ plus 13

so we are plus 24 at the  373 block mark.

  this is a current hashrate chart below so after a spike we have  a drop

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/537/BEjeu1.png

Overlap hilighted in red

-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift

-0.01 to -0.25% Amph-----------------------------put you here for now

+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits

+1.00 to 1.25% Amph-------------corrected due to my error

+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer
+4.01 to 4.25% Mikestang
+4.26 to 4.50% EternalWingsofGod  
+4.51 to 4.75% alh
+4.76 to 5.00% Kexkey                  
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller
+5.26 to 5.50% Biodom
+5.51 to 5.75% reactive4ce

+5.76 to 6.00% Amph you mentioned +6% so here you are



@ amph I do not see your 6% pick but I put you in at +5.76 to 6.00%




Overlap hi-lighted in red..   So @ Amph    that pick is not good

 thank you to coinits finding my error

I put Amph in at -0.01 to -0.25%  and  I think we are all good. Amph just confirm it.

To anyone else please let me know if I messed this up in other spots.

I want to pick -1.51 to -1.75%

Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,691,820,310 (+0.17%)

up up up!

1, 2 or 3 small ups and after that 1 negative! fine with me ;D

The nicehash percent is going down its just 15 percent more right now.  I expect some moved back, and to see more move back as it drops more.

I'm not sure how long it will take to drop but once it's in the +10 or less I think will cause more to jump back to regular pools.

a friend told me yesterday the speed, at some point, on sling coin:
Net Hashrate: 44,938.93 TH/s

-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph



+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer
+4.01 to 4.25% Mikestang
+4.26 to 4.50% EternalWingsofGod  
+4.51 to 4.75% alh
+4.76 to 5.00% Kexkey                  
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller
+5.26 to 5.50% Biodom
+5.51 to 5.75% reactive4ce




To anyone else please let me know if I messed this up in other spots.

we are  with 0 free and currently I see  all above 5.75 free.  I look at


 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr 19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr  20th
157  Apr   21st
149  Apr   22nd  plus 30 blocks  so we are 515 blocks made and 'normal' or 0 growth = 485 

 So 'real time'  number  is + 3.29%



It all looks like +at this time  I had said maybe 2.22 to 3.33

  I am thinking +4 or more chart shows a good jump so far. note that drop off after april 21st is only that april 22nd is not finished.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/633/uQA1sc.png



and still a high number


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/908/5U7nGj.png

Ah, so it was sling. Thanks for that. I guess I should have searched alt announcements before.

I don't get the appeal. Just another shit coin. But I guess people love their pump and dumps. I'm happy to rent my rig out instead.

44ph!!  well me thinks this is the deal  someone starts a pump and dump and uses  'dead' farm    bitfury ----cex.io  come to mind as they have a 'dead' farm  it can't make a profit on BTC  it is 10 to 20 ph in size.

So create a new pump and dump  every other diff adjustment.  mine your entire dead mine at it  10-20ph  get 20 to 30 ph of others  to mine with a ton of rentals hoping for a score.

So when the pump and dump is done west-nice-other renters  stop sending in big money  and those rentals go back to norm.

the dead pool goes power off.  and that 44ph does not all come back to BTC.

This spec theory with a dash of variance fits perfectly our 2-3 months pattern.  since cex.io shut down its cloud hashing.

I have seen more then 1  pump and dump tout club pop up here and in my emails.

I am not sure how good or bad this is. but it they that conspiracy club make money and BTC moves along like this I do make money.

Everyone should know that Josh of zen-gaw-paycoin has shown the world how this works.

  The question remains  is this a good thing or  a bad thing.  cause it is a thing

End of day btc is around 234, so down slightly from it's peak of around 238.  But it did keep it over 230 so slowly could be nice.

Hash is returning from nicehash in my opinion some, pay went down.  It looks like most likely we will have a positive change:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,556,910,992 (-0.11%)
Adjust time:    After 1498 Blocks, About 10.2 days

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is at (-0.34%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,446,772,205 (-0.34%)
Adjust time:   After 1431 Blocks, About 9.8 days
Hashrate(?):   354,254,741 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:   11:15 (3.0 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ is at (+1.25%)

Blocks   353385
Total BTC   14.085M
 
Difficulty   47610564513
Estimated   48209239684 in 1431 blks
 
Network total   311179.502 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.48 / 657 s

Creeping slowly towards positive...

In real time it is positive just a bit.

Looks like the party at Westhash/Nicehash is completely over. The payout value is now .0104. It's now down to less than 1500TH, compared to well over 4000TH earlier in the week. My lone SP20 has given up on Westhash.

i'm on beta at .0115 an i get this message:
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,613,444,555 (+0.01%) keeping the same rhythm i guess it will be around 2 to 3%

or maybe someone will hit the switch... on..... off.....

yeah  really looks to be a plus 2 to a plus 5.  i can live with it. not terrible. not really good.

Westhash is only 2 percent above BTC mining.  So I expect quite a few have started jumping back to normal pools.

And likely are more to come.   When it get's to be a big amount above btc they attract lots of miners, but for a lot I would say it's not their normal pool.

Maybe a new party is starting. Nicehash/Westhash is showing rentals at 30% over straight BTC at the moment.

Kind of too bad because I was looking forward to a nice relaxing stint over at slush's pool. Oh well.

philipma1957's conspiracy theory is starting to look pretty good...

Unless of course the real conspiracy is that the rental sites are behind all the new sha256 alt intros ;-)

No idea what coin they are renting the rigs for? I haven't seen any new SHA256 coins.

Maybe it was just a spike. It's down to half of what it was (around 16%).

Has anyone figured this out?  I went back to original firmware with it being 2 percent... and now it's back up at plus 30 on westhash.  I just want to know what is being mined or what is causing it.

i think it could be  they are selling btc-solo-mine tickets.  let me find a link
 a very smart promo very good for nicehash

https://www.nicehash.com/?p=luckmine


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/661/kqa6KI.png
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/901/h8Jjxm.png
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/912/tpT8cl.png

Thanks philipma1957! That lotto explains it.  I was wrong guessing it was a coin.

Tonight's bitcoin price dropped a little to around 230.  Bitwisdom difficulty:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,111,005,624 (-1.05%)
Adjust time:    After 1357 Blocks, About 9.4 days

So Bitwisdom is down from earlier today.

How do you guys obtain this % from Nice/Westhash?

Thanks

-2.01 to -2.25. Thanks

I think just going to front page.  It says it's current percentage it's paying.

If you want to really go down into details you can view orders.  With that you can see all the orders people have set to rent. 

Morningish report btc still hanging around 230.  It has went up and down a little, but pretty stable 230.

And of course Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,320,055,023 (-0.61%)
Adjust time:    After 1304 Blocks, About 9.0 days
Hashrate(?):    334,305,985 GH/s

-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph



+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer
+4.01 to 4.25% Mikestang
+4.26 to 4.50% EternalWingsofGod  
+4.51 to 4.75% alh
+4.76 to 5.00% Kexkey                  
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller
+5.26 to 5.50% Biodom
+5.51 to 5.75% reactive4ce



I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr 19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr  20th
157  Apr   21st
149  Apr   22nd  
131  Apr   23rd   +17 blocks is real time number  we should be at 697 blocks for '0' growth we are at 714 blocks

so real time we are at about +2.43%

we dropped off to 131 yesterday  we are dropping today. there are about 280 blocks to the 1000 block cut off mark

Can I take -1.76 to -2.00%? If trend goes like yesterday maybe I have a chance.

And bitcoin price this week seems pretty stable. Lets wait and see next week...

you got it  I am marking you in  look at post above you.

Bitwisdom does seem to keep going back and forth it is down a little more as of this second:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,051,261,576 (-1.17%)
Adjust time:    After 1289 Blocks, About 8.9 days


I don't see us being so lucky to get 2 negatives in a row.  But I would be happily wrong if it happens.

I no longer know what to think about this adjustment. We had good solid plus marks.  on this link all upward and onward until the 23rd

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr 19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr  20th
157  Apr   21st
149  Apr   22nd 
131  Apr   23rd 

so now if the number for the 24th is low  say 130 and we pop a few like that we will be negative.

I would have been certain to guess a + for this adjustment. 

we are  727 blocks gone about 273 blocks to shutoff of 1000 for picks.


 0.00 looks better then 5.76 to 6.00  and 0.00 has not been picked unless I am mistaken.

We are doing a .2 payoff since we had no winner last time.

To those that have not picked we do have quite a bit of negative numbers left and we are trending negative.

Economics is kicking in. Only what data centres do affects the difficulty. You've got a low price and a lot of large mines that are filled with gear from last summer. Gear is dying and not being replaced and some mines are shutting down completely because they can't pay the bills. Until the next technological leap (which is probably only 3 to 6 months away) or the price goes up, we won't see 50 billion difficulty.

I have to agree to a large extent with that analysis. Many avalon 4.1 owners along with many spondoolies owners   May down clock for power per gh savings.

But all the bitmaintech gear gets the same watts per gh whether at    20% overclock or 20 % underclock.

That bitmaintech gear keeps the diff growth very stable.


Or put it this way if all current gear gear did .52 watts a gh under over or normal rate  growth would be super flat.

The flex we get can happen due to the spondoolies and avalon 4.1 clocks.

I went to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

and the 24th had 124 blocks.   A very very very low number of blocks.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr  19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr   20th
157  Apr   21st
149  Apr   22nd  
131  Apr   23rd  
124  Apr   24th


the last 2 days are -33

 that is 255 blocks vs 288

and for those 2 days is -11.45%

for the whole time period we are now -3 blocks   this translates to about -0.05% real number

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (-0.96%)


we are at block 788  about  212 blocks to go to  1000.

If you have not picked yet consider the longshot of 0.00  or lower then -2

Sadly we see a little drop in BTC price.  It's hitting 229.   I was really hoping to keep 230+ but looks like that wont happen for right now.

BTCWisdom:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,152,913,724 (-0.96%)
Adjust time:    After 1238 Blocks, About 8.6 days

The last days number was only 124 truly a low number.  Not sure what it means as of now.

we are very close to 0.00 at the moment.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-0.02%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,602,506,952 (-0.02%)
Adjust time:   After 1159 Blocks, About 7.9 days
Hashrate(?):   333,121,679 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:   10:10 (7.2 minutes ago)

Then I want to try my chance at 0. I believe nobody didnt get it yet. Could you please put my guess to "0"?

Price has dropped a few dollars aswell to around 227.  Guess at least it's not dropping fast.  But It's going the wrong way slowly in price.

yes you only get 0 no over and no under.  

you get a bonus of .1  so it pays .1+.1   AND A ROLLOVER OF .1 TOTAL OF .3


 I do not see an early pick for it so it is yours

-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph

0.00   EMIF-------------------------------Just added today

+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer
+4.01 to 4.25% Mikestang
+4.26 to 4.50% EternalWingsofGod  
+4.51 to 4.75% alh
+4.76 to 5.00% Kexkey                  
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller
+5.26 to 5.50% Biodom
+5.51 to 5.75% reactive4ce



I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr 19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr  20th
157  Apr   21st
149  Apr   22nd  
131  Apr   23rd   +17 blocks is real time number  
124  Apr   24th    -3   blocks is a real time number at the end of the 24th

we are at block 859  picks stop at block 1000  = 141 blocks to cutoff.

 so some time on Sunday the 26th  we will end contest.     I will post closer to this.  Since this is a fun promo suchmoon and I realize that forum down time could happen at block 990 and you get cut off.  So a little leeway will be allowed.

we are fully solid picked from -2.25% right to +5.75%    33 are entered.   



so lower then -2.25% or higher then +5.75%   still leaves  some decent spots.

Bitwisdom now shows us at a positive number:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,795,532,564 (+0.39%)
Adjust time:    After 1092 Blocks, About 7.4 days

Price dropping slightly to 226.

Thanks philipma1957 for keeping track.

It looks like a modest diff increase this time. A modest increase in exchange rate would be appreciated too :)

much increase: -3.44% ;D

i think we are going to see much bigger swings in the hashrate!
the smaller the technology process, the more concentrated the power in one miner, one farm, one switch...
then the swings will get much bigger!

add to the reasons: alts on sha256, few farm fires ::)

And ouch drop to around 218 in a matter of hour's.   Not what we want to see on price.

Will be interesting if it effects hashrate at all.  I'm doubting it has much effect but I could be wrong.

i think it will go to negative this time, there is a recent drop a bit higher now, we are at 221, the diff should catch up

WE ARE AT BLOCK 990

WE MADE A LOT OF BLOCKS SINCE YESTERDAY AND DAILY BLOCK COUNT HAS BEEN JUMPING  A LOT.

IT IS 7:45 AM EASTERN STANDARD TIME.

I THINK TO BE FAIR AND MORE CLEAR.  I WILL MORE DEADLINE TO 11:59 AM

EASTERN STANDARD TIME.  JUST ABOUT 4 HOURS FROM THIS POST TIME.
 
-2.26 to -2.50% Bittings
-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph

0.00   EMIF-------------------------------Just added today

+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer
+4.01 to 4.25% Mikestang
+4.26 to 4.50% EternalWingsofGod  
+4.51 to 4.75% alh
+4.76 to 5.00% Kexkey                  
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller
+5.26 to 5.50% Biodom
+5.51 to 5.75% reactive4ce



I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr 19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr  20th
157  Apr   21st
149  Apr   22nd  
131  Apr   23rd   +17 blocks is real time number  
124  Apr   24th    -3   blocks is a real time number at the end of the 24th
159  Apr   25th   +22 blocks


we are at block 990  picks stop at block 1000  = 10 blocks to cutoff. I EXTENDED IT!  GOING WITH 11:59 AM EASTERN STANDARD TIME 4 HOURS FROM NOW

 so some time on Sunday the 26th  we will end contest.       Since this is a fun promo suchmoon and I realize that forum down time could happen at block 990 and you get cut off.  So a little leeway will be allowed.

we are fully solid picked from -2.25% right to +5.75%    33 are entered.  



so lower then -2.25% or higher then +5.75%   still leaves  some decent spots.

I think deadline hasnt came yet. So, I want to get  -2.26 to -2.50%.

I know its very low possibility but still more optimistic than 5.76-6.00  :)

2 more hours on deadline I will put you in.


you are in good luck!.

About 1 hour to go for picks!

Morning update it appears bitwisdom shows hash slowly moving up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,862,419,697 (+0.53%)
Adjust time:    After 1002 Blocks, About 6.8 days

Price diving even farther down at 214.  So not what we wanted to see with price.

Okay I am going to close this for picks  we are a bit past the 1000 block mark and also past 11:59am eastern standard time.
Below are final picks:  Suchmoon has final say on the contest since he funds it.  we have a 0.1+ 0.1 = 0.2 prize due to roll over 


 with 0.00 at bonus of +0.1   since it is just 1 number not the range like the others.

-2.26 to -2.50% Bittings
-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph

0.00   EMIF------------------------------- gets 0.10 rollover + 0.10 standard  + 0.10 bonus  = 0.30  as it is the hardest to pick

+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
+2.76 to 3.00% tertius993
+3.01 to 3.25% Last of the V8s
+3.26 to 3.50% edonkey
+3.51 to 3.75% tlhIlwI
+3.76 to 4.00% ezeminer
+4.01 to 4.25% Mikestang
+4.26 to 4.50% EternalWingsofGod  
+4.51 to 4.75% alh
+4.76 to 5.00% Kexkey                  
+5.01 to 5.25% Quickseller
+5.26 to 5.50% Biodom
+5.51 to 5.75% reactive4ce


Note it is a solid block from [+5.51 to 5.75%]   downward to [ -2.26 to -2.50%]  good luck to all of us.  but we could use coins going up not down.  they are at 215 usd. 

I just purchased 2 at coinbase.

Looks good to me, and yes, it's BTC0.2 this time.

Thanks to suchmoon for  prize money.   As pointed out we are dropping in price and maybe we drop in rate again.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Yesterday we popped 159 blocks  that is a lot of blocks. most in a month.

day before that 124   big swings

good luck to all!

let it be -2.51%!!! ::)

 :D ;D :D ;D :D

yeah the way the swings have been it could  which would help interest next adjustment.  price is pretty low.

We just keep going up slowly.  Which is not a bad thing, it's looking like a small increase during this change.  Possibly smaller then what the negative was on last one.  So still could be considered very good if that happens.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,889,720,703 (+0.59%)
Adjust time:    After 956 Blocks, About 6.5 days

Price hoovering around 218.  So we can hope it goes back up.

And morning it has actually went down slightly.  It appear in my opinion we will get a small gain during this difficulty.  Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,466,165,162 (-0.30%)
Adjust time:    After 891 Blocks, About 6.2 days

Price is down a little more at 217.  So it's slipping down faster then I like seeing.

I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr 19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr  20th
157  Apr   21st
149  Apr   22nd  
131  Apr   23rd   +17 blocks is real time number  
124  Apr   24th    -3   blocks is a real time number at the end of the 24th
159  Apr   25th   +22 blocks
151  Apr   26th   +29 blocks

so we made 1142 blocks and should be at 1113  so we are +2.60% at the moment.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  says  (-0.19%)   but they use some of the last adjustment to get that guess.

 We had some very low days the 23rd and 24th were very low and the 21st and 25th were very high.  this pattern looks like variance more then a trend. but who knows.

Do you think as network hash increase does also variance increase? Or are they totally independent of each other?

Im asking this because Im curious about that in the future whether we can see that kind of variance or not when network hash is 1000x of current one.

Regards...

Which price were you quoting? From Bitcoinwisdom? It's now 223 there, 222 on Coinbase, and 221 on Bitstamp. Seems to be moving up it seems, so that probably makes a difficulty decrease less likely.

Do you mean network difficulty, or the total hash rate of the network?  I don't expect we'll see either grow 1000 fold again, not without completely new mining technology or bitcoin value going through the roof; neither of which are sure things..

I mean total hash rate but could be network difficulty since its just a(n approximate) conversion of it.

Anyway, I said 1000x for visualisation purposes. I also didnt say in a near future. My purpose is to understand how the variance behaves when network hash rate grows enourmously than todays.

when the network grows like mad variance  is harder to see or determine.  since upswings could be growth and or variance.

when the network is flat variance is easier to see since up  swings   are most likely variance due to no real growth.

Bitcoinwisdom: $238
Coinbase: $230
Bitstamp: $229

Still moving up.

I would think by now that most of the effects of the last adjustment period are washed out of the bitcoinwisdom projection. Just looking at the graph, it really looks like hash rate has been more or less flat for a week or more. Yes it oscillates, but it really doesn't seem to be showing any significant growth like it did last year. It could easily be a "coin toss" in terms of plus or minus adjustment this time around.

Unfortunately it also appears that the Westhash "gravy train" of overpriced rentals is really gone. :(

I don't know what is causing it but I'm sure happy to see it go up so quick.  A lot nicer then the 218 or so last night.

Bitwisdom shows a negative right now:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,355,261,252 (-0.54%)
Adjust time:    After 824 Blocks, About 5.7 days

So slowing down on power possibly and price up so looking good.

While I won't complain about an increase in BTC price, a rise from $218 to $230 won't really have any significant effect on mining operations I don't believe. I don't think there are Petahash's sitting on the sidelines just waiting for a $15 bump in BTC price. Now $300 will motivate some folks to restart operations in my opinion.

We are not going to get a huge jump at once I don't think.  I think we will see smaller amount's if we get gains.

A 6 percent gain in one day is still very very nice.  Look at it percentage wise not dollar raise.

And closing out the night bitwisdom went down just a little bit more:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,331,767,323 (-0.59%)
Adjust time:    After 799 Blocks, About 5.6 days
Hashrate(?):    345,791,889 GH/s

Price is heading downwards slowly currently at 227.  Hopefully it can change to up again, that would be nice.

I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr   19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr   20th    + 12
157  Apr   21st    + 25
149  Apr   22nd   + 30  
131  Apr   23rd   + 17 blocks is real time number  
124  Apr   24th    -  3   blocks is a real time number at the end of the 24th
159  Apr   25th   + 22 blocks
151  Apr   26th   + 29 blocks
135  Apr   27th   + 20 blocks

we have made 1218 blocks   we are +20 so we should have made 1198 blocks  this means we are  +1.66 %

 We had some very low days the 23rd , 24th and the  27th were very low.

The 20th, 21st and 25th were very high.  this pattern looks like variance more then a trend. but who knows.

I think it's not so much about someone restarting mining, but perhaps someone not turning their Ant S2 off just yet. By the way I purchased my S2s nearly a year ago and they are still (barely) profitable at $0.10 USD per kWh. Marvelous. Spondoolies SP10 is another ancient model still running strong.

  yes or a small miner downclocks and upclocks avalon 4.1's or sp20's

since the power efficiency  changes with the clocks.

Small move overnite  and coins base is 223usd at the moment.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-0.82%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,221,566,145 (-0.82%)
Adjust time:   After 728 Blocks, About 5.1 days
Hashrate(?):   355,160,579 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   8:45 (1.6 minutes ago)

It seems to go up and down a lot this week.  I can't decide if it's just luck or what cause is:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,542,929,619 (-0.14%)
Adjust time:    After 706 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):    357,722,245 GH/s

I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr   19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr   20th    + 12
157  Apr   21st    + 25
149  Apr   22nd   + 30  
131  Apr   23rd   + 17 blocks is real time number  
124  Apr   24th    -  3   blocks is a real time number at the end of the 24th
159  Apr   25th   + 22 blocks
151  Apr   26th   + 29 blocks
135  Apr   27th   + 20 blocks
150  Apr   28th    +26 blocks


we made 1368 blocks so far

'real' time adjustment rate is :  (+1.93%)

bitcoinwisdom is: (-0.97%)


coinbase price is 224usd

i didn't follow too much, who won  the last diff change?

and there is another peak to choose?

Nobody won last week. Its rollover. This time prize is 0.2 BTC and rules have changed a little bit.

Anyway, picks were closed 3 days ago. They are full from -2.5 to +5.75 without any interval. But its very uncertain , however it seems we will get a positive rate according to last 3 days. 

Bitwisdom showing down even more now :
Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,991,591,586 (-1.30%)
Adjust time:    After 627 Blocks, About 4.4 days

Would be nice to have two negatives in a row, but i don't think we will get that lucky.  I hope I'm wrong though.

 As of last nite we were 26 blocks in the plus ,  but we have some under  numbers  today ,  so  negative is possible.   My guess would be  +1 % TO +2 % is most likely.

    +26 or - 26 blocks when compared to 1400 blocks made show very little action one way or the other..

    2 days at 130 would get us to negative  we did do 131 and 124 on Apr 23rd & 24th.

I think most of the mining world it threading water waiting to see what happens next.
We miners are very much at the mercy of coin price. Why expand when coins are cheap.

14 million coins = about 3.5 billion usd   may 2015
10 million coins = about 10  billion usd   dec  2013

the above = slow diff

Slower day today less blocks made.

Price is at 225.70 coinbase.

I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr   19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr   20th    + 12
157  Apr   21st    + 25
149  Apr   22nd   + 30  
131  Apr   23rd   + 17 blocks is real time number  
124  Apr   24th    -  3   blocks is a real time number at the end of the 24th
159  Apr   25th   + 22 blocks
151  Apr   26th   + 29 blocks
135  Apr   27th   + 20 blocks
150  Apr   28th    +26 blocks
130  Apr   29th    +12 blocks


1494 blocks made we are plus 12 so our real number is : (+ 0.809%)

Really flat  with 522 blocks left

Bitwisdom still showing a negative:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,876,026,659 (-1.54%)
Adjust time:    After 506 Blocks, About 3.6 days

I think there just might be a chance of a second negative.

Even if it isn't negative, it will be a small positive. As I mentioned, I think this is strictly the oscillation of variance, as opposed to anything substantive in terms of actual hashrate.

Well according to difficulty its down to -1.78%
So with the oscillations we might see somewhere near 0 it would be fun to see it be exactly 0 in percentage terms haha
Adjust time: After 504 Blocks, About 3.6 days  when I was checking it out.

0 is more likely then +5

with 75 percent finished block wise  the max we can do is 3 or 4 %


we just seem to be bouncing along very close to zero gain.
My house got a bit hot today so I lower my power for mining and my hashrate by  240 watts and 300gh

So whatever new gear sold now

S-5
s-4+
avalon 4.1  is being balanced by downclocking for heat.

I would love to figure northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere percentages.

My guess is 70 percent above the equator but no info on that just a guess.

https://twitter.com/InsideBitcoins/status/593489106296012800

GBTC could start today or tomorrow. And price is a little ($ 6-8) bit up. If this happens till weekend , then I guess we can wait for a + in diff for this time.

What is GBTC and what does it have to do with diff adjustment?

Is it your thought that this will raise the price of BTC?


http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gbtc/stock-chart


looks to be put on hold see link above.

there is a rally of sorts as  I see coinbase.com at 232 usd

https://www.coinbase.com/charts

GBTC is a kind of BTC ETF and will give opportunities to "normal" investors to invest in BTC. Yes, I believe it affects BTC price in a positive way since there will be new demand for BTC.

And how do I relate to diff adjustment: Well, normally BTC price follows difficulty as what I understand from mining-price relationship. However, I believe (possible) increase in the price of BTC with this kind of demand outside of BTC world will trigger to miners back to BTC mining (regardless of electricity cost or other more profitable sha256 alt mining) 
Of course , this is just my speculation.

Would be nice to see this.  Demand has not been too good. I am hoping this pushes demand upward.

 Funny you think BTC price follows difficulty.   I guess it is a chicken or the egg thing.

I have had people tell me price is more dependant on how much people trust in Bitcoin. More of a how much will you put in for how much you believe it will rise. If that makes any sense.

Also this:

http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/30/circle-goldman-sachs/

While not a direct investment in Bitcoin, it's still quite significant - a big Wall Street firm making an investment that might increase the use/demand for Bitcoin.

~$235 now.

  For a miner centric person like myself anything making more demand attracts my interest.  I would be nice to have a good long term upward trend.  Being in my late 50's I can recall serious discussions about gold being resistive to breaking the 300 dollar ceiling. I see one of BTC's biggest issues of  acting as  a hedge property being   fixed by these wall street type investors.
I would love to see a controlled rise to 800- 1000

Bitwisdom is still showing a negative:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,816,293,985 (-1.67%)
Adjust time:    After 433 Blocks, About 3.1 days
Hashrate(?):    324,695,194 GH/s

With price going up to 235, it looks pretty good right now.

It's not obvious to me at all that having Wall Street take an interest is a good thing, for the long term. We all learned first hand what Wall Street can do to things that are usually pretty stable and boring like mortgages. While I think a controlled rise would be swell, your idea and mine about "controlled" might be quite different than Goldman Sachs.

Only time will tell.  Pump to the moon  and dump to the ocean is as likely as a smooth move to 1000 usd.

BTW 238 usd at coinbase.

BTC slightly going down currently at 238.  Hopefully trend goes back up.  Guess we will see over night.

I don't sell much so I guess I don't get wrapped up on prices each day.

I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr   19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr   20th    + 12
157  Apr   21st    + 25
149  Apr   22nd   + 30  
131  Apr   23rd   + 17 blocks is real time number  
124  Apr   24th    -  3   blocks is a real time number at the end of the 24th
159  Apr   25th   + 22 blocks
151  Apr   26th   + 29 blocks
135  Apr   27th   + 20 blocks
150  Apr   28th    +26 blocks
130  Apr   29th    +12 blocks
133  Apr   30th     +1 block

about as close to 0 as it can be

1639 blocks made rather then 1638 blocks made   = a real number of  (+0.0006%)


so with only 377 blocks left   -2.5%  to +  2.5%   could win



-2.26 to -2.50% Bittings
-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph

0.00   EMIF

+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d


I know that www.bitcoinwisdom.com reads   (-1.37%)

I think it would be almost next to impossible for a miss  as sinking under Bittings pick of  -2.26% to -2.50% becomes  very hard.  

Back to back  to back  125 days would get us too low for a winner.  

Also tonight we are sitting around 236.   It is on a downward trend slightly.

But not a bad day for btc price, overall a good day.

Bitcoin is making a late night rally currently 239.  Were going from downward trend to upward which is nice.

We will see hopefully we can get in 240's.  But I'm guessing there are some automatic triggers on trading that will have a little bit of a wall.

It turned back down while you slept, around $235 as I type this.  Price has been fairly stable this entire adjustment period.

Currently BTC around 234 on a slight downward trend.  Difficulty is on a upward trend here is bitwisodom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,289,108,311 (-0.68%)
Adjust time:    After 303 Blocks, About 2.1 days
Hashrate(?):    328,759,529 GH/s

Looking like we will be getting a negative or low positive.  Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,388,471,672 (-0.47%)
Adjust time:    After 245 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    327,886,167 GH/s

BTC currently at 333 per and is on a slight upward trend tonight.

I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr   19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr   20th    + 12
157  Apr   21st    + 25
149  Apr   22nd   + 30  
131  Apr   23rd   + 17 blocks is real time number  
124  Apr   24th    -  3   blocks is a real time number at the end of the 24th
159  Apr   25th   + 22 blocks
151  Apr   26th   + 29 blocks
135  Apr   27th   + 20 blocks
150  Apr   28th    +26 blocks
130  Apr   29th    +12 blocks
133  Apr   30th     +1 block
144  May     1st     +1 block

about as close to 0 as it can be

1780 blocks made rather then 1779 blocks made   = a real number of  (+0.00056%)


so with only 236 blocks left   -2.5%  to +  2.5%   could win



-2.26 to -2.50% Bittings
-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph

0.00   EMIF

+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d


I know that www.bitcoinwisdom.com reads   (-0.56%%)

I think it would be almost next to impossible for a miss  as sinking under Bittings pick of  -2.26% to -2.50% becomes  very hard.  


Most likely -1 to + 1 % .

I'm going to say it's likely to stay in the negatives between Jamphone and eretron at present.
That said if we see a decrease in this round the next one will likely be green since we haven't had a consecutive difficulty decrease in a long time.

Bitcoin Difficulty: 47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty: 47,355,872,972 (-0.53%)  
Adjust time: After 231 Blocks, About 1.6 days  
Hashrate(?): 325,322,454 GH/s

I would agree if we somehow get lucky enough to have a second negative.  There is no way we will get three in a row.

It has slowed down, but not near that level on new hash.  Three negative I think would be a first time ever if it happened.

I don't know if 3 negs in a row ever happened.  we are really close to 0 at the moment .

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     (-0.09%)


www.coinbase.com = 234 usd

188 blocks to go means  12 noon to 4 pm eastern standard time  sunday the 3rd

Bitwisdom went down slightly:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,524,306,892 (-0.18%)
Adjust time:    After 143 Blocks, About 1.0 days

Still don't think we will get luck enough for 2 negatives but guess we will see in around a day.

Well I believe it is safe to say that a -1% to 0.5% is going to win. Maybe even a ninja snipe at 0.

we are at + 0.00086%   basically we are +1 block according to www.bitcoincharts.com


So slow sales via bitmaintech.com and ehash.com  and some downclocking due to hot weather  = almost 0%

Right now we are at 234 per bitcoin.  Today we seem to be in 230's up and down some.  Slightly on a downward trend.

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,532,050,083 (-0.16%)
Adjust time:    After 118 Blocks, About 19.9 hours
Hashrate(?):    330,598,743 GH/s

Don't forget that it's the time of the 2015th block that matters (diff retarget calc is based on the difference between 2015 blocks not 2016) so you're always +1 block if you're thinking of it as 2016 blocks between retargets.

I believe this is up to date.

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

145  Apr   19th  half old adjustment
155  Apr   20th    + 12
157  Apr   21st    + 25
149  Apr   22nd   + 30  
131  Apr   23rd   + 17 blocks is real time number  
124  Apr   24th    -  3   blocks is a real time number at the end of the 24th
159  Apr   25th   + 22 blocks
151  Apr   26th   + 29 blocks
135  Apr   27th   + 20 blocks
150  Apr   28th    +26 blocks
130  Apr   29th    +12 blocks
133  Apr   30th     +1 block
144  May     1st     +1 block
149  May    2nd     +6 blocks

drifted just a bit over.

we have made 1931 blocks vs 1925

so we are at  (+0.311%)



-2.26 to -2.50% Bittings
-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph

0.00   EMIF

+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d


I know that www.bitcoinwisdom.com reads   (+0.13%)

I think it would be almost next to impossible for a miss  as sinking under Bittings pick of  -2.26% to -2.50% becomes  very hard.  


Most likely -0.75% to + 1.25 % .  I bolded the people I think can still win with 85 blocks left.

Which, if I time everything just right, will be when I wake up.  Time for sleep, I will dream of negative network difficulty.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty = (-0.56%)

we have made 1973 blocks only 43 to go

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   354773
Total BTC   14.119M
 
Difficulty   47610564513
Estimated   47389911971 in 43 blks
 
Network total   324507.571 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.71 / 630 s

we dropped a bit last night.  we are at   -0.46%

-2.26 to -2.50% Bittings
-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000

-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph

0.00   EMIF

+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan

+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d


I know that www.bitcoinwisdom.com reads   (+0.13%)

I think it would be almost next to impossible for a miss  as sinking under Bittings pick of  -2.26% to -2.50% becomes  very hard.  


Most likely -1.25% to + 0.75 % .  I bolded the people I think can still win with 43 blocks left.

EMIF with the 0 pick is still in the running!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty = (-0.78%)

we have made 1986 blocks only 30 to go   it is drifting lower

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   now about (-0.79%)


Blocks   354786
Total BTC   14.120M
 
Difficulty   47610564513
Estimated   47230956139 in 30 blks
 
Network total   321304.059 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.66 / 636 s




-2.26 to -2.50% Bittings
-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000

-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph

0.00                 EMIF
+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee
+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d


I know that www.bitcoinwisdom.com reads   (-0.78%)

I think it would be almost next to impossible for a miss  as sinking under Bittings pick of  -2.26% to -2.50% becomes  next to impossible.  


Most likely -1.25% to - 0.25 % .  I bolded the people I think can still win with 30 blocks left.




Jamphone is in the lead  eretron  and myself are second and third

haha photo finish :D

So we are close to see 2 negatives in a row. Miners will be happy :)

very tight  I have the real number at -0.2667%

these three are closest:

-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron

-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift

-0.01 to -0.25% Amph

20 blocks left

Looking like a negative again:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,407,114,788 (-0.43%)
Adjust time:    After 18 Blocks, About 3.1 hours
Hashrate(?):    339,359,786 GH/s

Think summer is causing some to unplug?

 downclocks due to heat is more likely .

My avalon will need to downclock very soon due to warming weather.

We are now on 23 minutes since last block.  I could get closer. -0.101 to -0.125 is my pick

make it 25 minutes.  since block 354798


big fast flurry of blocks  we are at 0.02%  with four blocks left.  11 blocks in 62 minutes! smoking !!!

Looks like I am done.  would be cool to see it be 0.

and done   at + 0.07%   looks like zebeedee wins

please give suchmoon a btc addy for the 0.20 btc prize

It would be nice to see 2 negatives, congrats to zebeedee. I am quite happy with 0.07 also...

See you at the next round...

Was too close... Congrats zebedee, however very strange last 15 blocks :D

if it was a horse race the call would be

 zebedee from out of the clouds with a closing rush!!!

That was a fun race though!  I can handle this small of a positive :)

Nice. I think this is as close to zero as we've ever been.

Thanks very much, unexpected!  It's very generous of you.  Please send to 1NmY4u8fGUQRKQWDeeJYLJHWpLGHgpzQDS, thanks.

I will lock it up here is link for new thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1046692.0