Newest Diff thread April 19th to May 1st-Closed for picks!!

[philipma1957]

Please do not post a pick. For suchmoon's promo.

We are going to have a one pick no change policy as keeping track of changes is too hard.

I am setting this up  ahead of the current thread which should have a result in 2 hours or so.

Self modded  in respect to seriouscoin

Alh offered to relieve my self imposed burden of always picking -1.11% for myself  but I will keep it which is the -1.01 to -1.25% range

With no switching allowed waiting until 300 blocks are done  to make a pick seems like a good idea and cutting off around block 1000  also make sense.

So no picking from 0 to 300   blocks

picking from 301 to 1000 blocks

closed from 1000 blocks to 2016 blocks  .  

last thread was a carry over.
No winners
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1012578.msg10985743#msg10985743

Diff was -3.71%

[philipma1957]

I am leaving this for revisions and changes. Suchmoon will do a new   promo

OFFICIAL RULES FOR THE MOST ACCURATE GUESS REWARD


are here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10550525#msg10550525




Rule changes are no pick switches.  One pick and  stick with the pick.



Pick between blocks 301 and 1000------------------- subject to revision.

the next reward deadline 2:00 AM UTC, April 26, 2015 as per suchmoon.

I have not made the blue  highlight   set yet.  but the one pick is set.

I am thinking the  wait for 300 block pick for 700blocks  increases spec post and reduces pick posts.

Feel free to spec for a while.  I think we will do new picks starting on the 300th block made .

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-3.40%)  is the next prediction current price is  225 usd.


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,989,490,939 (-3.40%)
Adjust time:   After 2016 Blocks, About 14.1 days
Hashrate(?):   332,607,933 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   14:40 (4.5 minutes ago)

[notlist3d]

It is nice to see a negative difficulty again last week.  I'm guessing that means were in for a little bit of a positive this week.  Will be interesting to watch.

Some day I we should see some new gear coming online, but with low price of btc I'm still not sure when we will see next gen start taking over.

[coinits]

I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.

[philipma1957]

I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.

yeah I think if we delay until block 300 we can all get a feel for it.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is -3.39%

 but it is only 11 blocks in this is based on current and last diff


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,996,464,248 (-3.39%)
Adjust time:   After 2005 Blocks, About 14.1 days
Hashrate(?):   331,173,351 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   16:0 (2.6 minutes ago)




www.bitcoincharts.com is  at -0.05% or 47582393724  this is more of a real world number


Waiting  until tues is a good idea to do picks.


The slight real world of bitcoincharts makes sense to me since all players did better with the diff change.

[Mikestang]

If the trends continues, this one should be up.  But with summer in the northern hemisphere starting, we could aslo be seeing the beginning of a downturn.  Waiting for 300 blocks is a good idea, no reason to jump the gun.

[coinits]

If the trends continues, this one should be up.  But with summer in the northern hemisphere starting, we could aslo be seeing the beginning of a downturn.  Waiting for 300 blocks is a good idea, no reason to jump the gun.

Unless people want to make 100% pure guess without seeing the current trend.

[ezeminer]

If the trends continues, this one should be up.  But with summer in the northern hemisphere starting, we could aslo be seeing the beginning of a downturn.  Waiting for 300 blocks is a good idea, no reason to jump the gun.

Unless people want to make 100% pure guess without seeing the current trend.

Well it will be within like a 6% increase or decrease as the only thing that is changing the market is the abundance of used miners.

Nothing new to hit the markets yet. My guess is there might be some hash that comes online and pushes difficulty early but -3 to +3 is where it'll be at.

[philipma1957]

there is over clocking and down clocking factors.  I just went from 1750gh  to 1985gh via freq change  that is a 13% uptick. the lower difficulty will offset the power efficiency loss of the overclocking. As my watts per gh went from .57 to .60

[notlist3d]

I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.

yeah I think if we delay until block 300 we can all get a feel for it.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is -3.39%

 but it is only 11 blocks in this is based on current and last diff


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,996,464,248 (-3.39%)
Adjust time:   After 2005 Blocks, About 14.1 days
Hashrate(?):   331,173,351 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   16:0 (2.6 minutes ago)




www.bitcoincharts.com is  at -0.05% or 47582393724  this is more of a real world number


Waiting  until tues is a good idea to do picks.


The slight real world of bitcoincharts makes sense to me since all players did better with the diff change.

Bitwisdom already went up a decent amount with it being so new:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,410,388,208 (-2.52%)
Adjust time:    After 1973 Blocks, About 13.6 days
Hashrate(?):    337,500,209 GH/s

[Kexkey]

I like the idea of waiting after the first 300 blocks before taking the guesses, without switches.  Simple and more thoughtful than gambling.

That being said, I think the down trend will continue with temperatures warming up and btc price not going up...

[philipma1957]

I like the idea of waiting after the first 300 blocks before taking the guesses, without switches.  Simple and more thoughtful than gambling.

That being said, I think the down trend will continue with temperatures warming up and btc price not going up...

Well it saves me a lot of time and far less confusion.  Plus we all get a chance to see some trending


http://btc.blockr.io/charts 

 the april 19th is not up yet should be 144 and will be from both adjustments

the april 20th will be purely this adjustment.

[coinits]

I like the idea of waiting after the first 300 blocks before taking the guesses, without switches.  Simple and more thoughtful than gambling.

That being said, I think the down trend will continue with temperatures warming up and btc price not going up...

Well it saves me a lot of time and far less confusion.  Plus we all get a chance to see some trending

There will be a big rush to get the choice positions.

[philipma1957]

I like the idea of waiting after the first 300 blocks before taking the guesses, without switches.  Simple and more thoughtful than gambling.

That being said, I think the down trend will continue with temperatures warming up and btc price not going up...

Well it saves me a lot of time and far less confusion.  Plus we all get a chance to see some trending

There will be a big rush to get the choice positions.

yeah tues at block 300 there will be a rush, but waiting until block 600 or so could still be smart.

[skuser]

I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.

yeah I think if we delay until block 300 we can all get a feel for it.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is -3.39%

 but it is only 11 blocks in this is based on current and last diff


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,996,464,248 (-3.39%)
Adjust time:   After 2005 Blocks, About 14.1 days
Hashrate(?):   331,173,351 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   16:0 (2.6 minutes ago)




www.bitcoincharts.com is  at -0.05% or 47582393724  this is more of a real world number


Waiting  until tues is a good idea to do picks.


The slight real world of bitcoincharts makes sense to me since all players did better with the diff change.

This is chart of last difficulty estimates evolution. Bitcoinwisdom is mostly wrong at the start due to wrong algo. Closest estimate had nextdifficulty.com - it is using last 1000 blocks for estimations.

[philipma1957]

That is why the idea of using the 300 -1000 zone for your pick makes more sense.
Right now we are getting a shit coin rush on nice hash so rates are pretty low.  by the 300th block that may go by by and we get a better idea of the diff guess.

Going past 1000 blocks or roughly the  26th of april would make it too easy.

so 300-1000 blocks kind of works.

I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.

yeah I think if we delay until block 300 we can all get a feel for it.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is -3.39%

 but it is only 11 blocks in this is based on current and last diff


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,996,464,248 (-3.39%)
Adjust time:   After 2005 Blocks, About 14.1 days
Hashrate(?):   331,173,351 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   16:0 (2.6 minutes ago)




www.bitcoincharts.com is  at -0.05% or 47582393724  this is more of a real world number


Waiting  until tues is a good idea to do picks.


The slight real world of bitcoincharts makes sense to me since all players did better with the diff change.

This is chart of last difficulty estimates evolution. Bitcoinwisdom is mostly wrong at the start due to wrong algo. Closest estimate had nextdifficulty.com - it is using last 1000 blocks for estimations.

[armedmilitia]

I'll take 2.01-2.25% this time.

Methinks once the altcoin hash comes back the difficulty will climb.

[philipma1957]

I'll take 2.01-2.25% this time.

Methinks once the altcoin hash comes back the difficulty will climb.

please remember no picks till tues.


As a courtesy   I will allow this one to be placed on hold.  Please everyone hold back for about 200 blocks or so.


http://btc.blockr.io/charts


 shows 145 blocks for 4-19 which is pretty much 0.0% to .7 %

[Jamphone]

Without a price spike, we're going negative. You heard it here first.

[notlist3d]

Coming to end of first night of new difficulty slowly moving up a little:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,644,709,990 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:    After 1936 Blocks, About 13.3 days