Bitcoin Forum

What do you expect from the halving next year regarding price development of Bitcoin?

Currently, the price is very stable although there are created around 3k new Bitcoins every day. In my opinion, the price stability results by a constantly increase of demand. When the supply will be halved in 2016, the price should be grow linear if the current demand stays the same.

What do you think?

Until I read the post below I assumed the halving in 2016 would create a rally. Now I'm wondering if the state of the dark markets will have a bigger affect on the price.

The market tends to do the opposite of what the majority thinks. There's a clear consensus that the halving should drive the price up, just as it did the last time. Therefore my personal opinion is that it will either remain lateral or go down.

It will take a few days/weeks for people to catch on, but I believe it will go up and stabilize right away.
I'd say around $475 and will stay within that relative zone. (As long as everything is normal and smooth with the code/protocol.)
But of course, no one knows.

Someone should do a report or study about this with actual economists. I wonder what a group of them would each say.
Would there be conscious? Or divided due to economic principals most of us are unaware of?

I would say the the difficulty and hashrate will significantly decrease as miners begin switching off due to mining becoming even more unprofitable. I think that the price might rise, but not enough that people will continue mining.

because a lot of people are expecting an increase from the halving, it's possible that when it doesn't happen, people will start dumping bitcoins because they think it failed or they wanted to make a quick buck but it didn't work so they're on the next thing.


Which would make the price go down, actually.

But this is becoming more a speculation topic than a bitcoin discussion.

I'm hoping that there will be less new coins being mined and less miners dumping onto the market, so hoping for a nice price increase and then another stable plateau. I think people dropping off of mining will reduce difficulty and then we'll have waxing & waning cycles of difficulty rising and falling and new miners coming into it. I could see maybe a stable $400-450 Bitcoin with a higher potential of rising at any time. I would be totally fine with that. But I mean really who knows? It's Bitcoin and it is pretty damn revolutionary...  Anything could happen in this experimental new economy. I'm just glad to be on board for the ride.

I agree and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this happen.  It's not what I want but it's all too normal for traders to harp on bitcoiners fears and milk those valleys for all their worth. 

I don't think the halving itself is what will drive a change in price.  A big reason for this is because everyone knows exactly how much bitcoin will ever be available and this is a very key point.  Everyone knows that money is a finite resource but with bitcoin, we know exactly how much of it there will be.  What we really don't know is how much people will chase after it.  Will the truly finite aspect of bitcoin ultimately be an impediment or will it prove financially sound?  That's what will really drive the price of bitcoin.  Halving is just a milestone. 

The increased media attention to Bitcoin will likely increase awareness
Whether that will result in a price increase is another question
That said it would make sense to go up if the press did stories on what's happened since the last time they did articles on Bitcoin and did adoption stories on the other hand if they highlight Silk road trials etc than the common users might be passive.
We will see hopefully the Nasdaq Winkeveli ETF, Retailer adoption news is highlighted.

Nothing happened to the price as a result of the last halving. Nothing will happen to the price as a result of the next halving.

A drop in new coins by 1.8k BTC a day is nothing compared to 14 million coins currently in existence and the current 135k daily trade volume. There are so many other factors affecting the price, the drop of 1.8k BTC a day will have little effect on the price (at least in the short term).

I believe the halving in abount 60 weeks time will be yet another factor that will press the price of bitcoins up in the future as the supply of new bitcoins will be reduced and bitcoin miners will act as another press upward on the price for them to remain relatively equally profitable on there mining as before the halving.

I think it is impossible to tell for sure.  However if the majority of people believe the price will go up then they will buy accordingly.  If this is the case, then buy orders will drive up prices.  So there will be at least a temporary price increase.  But the higher it goes the harder it will fall as investors sell to cash in at a good price (followed by a nice round of panic selling of course).

I think that is the most likely case, however like I said anything can happen.

I expect a large group of individual miners to stop mining and leave that entirely to large farms. That, in turn, will decrease the amount of disposible Bitcoin in the hands of people that frequent retailers instead of just selling mined coin to cover expenses like farms do. More selling to exchanges than spending or buying will decrease the price. It's always been expected that fees will replace the reward as it drops so the system is self correcting. I don't think that's really how it's going to work. Transaction fees can't be pushed up fast enough.

That is a really interesting take on the situation.  I had just assumed that it would drive the the price up. 

I thought that most individuals had already stopped mining?  Don't the farms and pools pretty much run the show now, at least for bitcoin?  I think that there will still be mid sized farms, and the new equipment coming out soonish will further decrease the ability of the average person to get into mining.  Assuming it is more expensive then the last generation.  Even if it does drive everything to large farms, it is only speeding up the inevitable.

Well, this is provided that the demand stays at the same level at it is right now. But I do have a feeling a lot of people or rather would I say short-term investors will quickly dump their coin holdings if it goes up to a certain level. That would be the biggest hurdle if we expect bitcoin price to go up further.

You can see that happening to doge right now when a lot people are seizing on the opportunity to cash out fast when it hit their price target.

how so, the chart clearly tell you that there was a x2 raise for the last halving, it will be the same for this or at worse we remain at current price(but at the expense of having the power cut in half, unless by that time, every farm will run with free electricity), i doubt it will go down, there is no reason for the price to go down at the halving, instead of going down...let's say, this year

Most people expect the price of Bitcoin to go up.
I used to think that as well but I am not so sure now.

I expect some media coverage, higher demand and higher price is short-term. anyway, after couple of months price will be reverted to previous state as before..

If you look at current hashrate distribution at least 50% of the mining is still performed by small to medium sized pools. These pools are comprised of individual miners "pooling" their mining power to find blocks and split the reward. The individuals need to be rewarded with a large enough share of the found blocks to make continued mining financially desirable.

Bitcoin is designed to be a balanced system where difficulty, reward and fees self adjust to keep everything in equilibrium. In other words, as miners stop mining because it's no longer profitable for them the difficulty drops and increases the profit for the remaining miners, this in turn increases profitability which causes more people to mine. The same is true for the designed reward drop. Bitcoin gets at least some of it value from scarcity as there are only ever supposed to be 21 million of them. The design planned to reward early adopters to an untried risky system with a large reward for continued mining. As the system grows it's believed that less reward will be necessary to keep the system going. As the reward drops it was believed that fees would organically increase to stabilize the profitability of continued mining until eventually only fees are paying for the cost of mining.

I don't happen to believe this system will work as advertised for a multitude of reasons. Most of those reasons are outside the control of the original design team because human behavior is difficult to calculate with a slide rule. In theory it sounds perfect; however, theory and reality seldom meld into a perfect union.

I don't think much'll happen of note.

The reduction in supply is only a small percentage of coins bought and sold every day and it's so heavily flagged that it's likely to be baked into the price.

It's much more meaningful in the long game. I think the 2021 halving will be a far more interesting occurrence.

Why the 2021 halving will be more intersiting than the 2016 ones ?

Because it'll reduce annual coin inflation to 1.8% and 90% of all coins will be mined.

Right now it's still near 10% a year and there are many more coins to arrive.

Also all the stuff clever people are working on now will have come to fruition and so maybe there'll be some proper demand by then. There won't be enough new coins to satisfy that.

There will be a pump because of pure hype and expectation on that date, followed by a nice little dump, followed by people selling, following by a continual of the uptrend, and finally, followed by people that sold crying because they no longer have BTC, as the price continues its rise to 5 figures.

that's why it makes sense to have a constant emission that models after the amount of coins lost/year after a certain period of time instead of having it go to 0. There are so many good reasons for it:

1. It keeps the miners happy because miners get more value. Instead of losing coins making everyone else's coins worth more, it makes everyone else's coins more secure, because it gives more incentive for miners to mine.

2. You don't have to keep adding decimal points after too many coins are lost. It's easier psychologically for humans to use whole numbers with a few decimals than like 10 decimal places.

3. It keeps prices constant as well, since there's no inflation or deflation. This assumes that the currency is widespread and not volatile.

If bitcoin won't be obsolete or worse by then, I expect the seller pressure to be halved soon after the block halving.
Several months after this, price should peak at 10 - 20 times the level at the moment of halving.

price will go up at the beginning for obvious reasons. but beside that i don't think much will happen without significant good news. it will make people hoard for a short time.

Not much really, 12.5 every 10 minutes is still a lot. ~9 years from now when it drops to around 3 every 10 minutes will have a larger impact on the price, probably enough to push it into the 5 figure range. But honestly who knows, if there's an explosion in demand the price could seriously take off before any of the halvings. It will be interesting to see what happens.

The last halving was 11/28/2012 and the price that followed was flat for 3 months before the Cyprus bubble started. Furthermore, after the Cyprus bubble, the price was flat for another 5 months before the China bubble started.

So other than the two bubbles, the price was basically flat. The halving didn't seem to have any effect.

The beauty of a chart is that, like statistics, anyone can interpret it any way they want. That's why so many people believe in technical analysis.

Blocks until mining reward is halved: 50,403

well i was talking about what happened before the halving(3 month before the price was lower after that there was a 50% increase) usually the price begin to climb long before the halving happens, and the 2012 halving wasn't an exception to this theory

then like you said it raised, so in the end there was a significantly variation, the fact that it didn't happen exactly in the day of the halving doesn't mean much...

Halving just change the monetary supply. If the market has the same amount of money flowing into BTC, then the price will rise.

at this point there isn't much new money flowing into bitcoin. it's money that was already in the bitcoin economy. which is also one of the reasons bitcoin is hardly moving.

i think we are going to see another big bubble as the result of 2016 halving. because of couple of reasons.

first many people are expecting that price would rise due halving and it is logical that less supply (less block reward) will result in increasing price.

second because of the accumulation phase that is going on right now and i think is going to be this way much longer. after this phase there will be a rise in price.

although i don't think that we can witness another big bubble like before, it is going to be big enough that the accumulators take a good profit from it.

That is what I think:

First, a month before the halving, the price will increase by some 30-50% because people will think that the supply will decrease so this is their last chance to grab coins.

Second, a week after halving, the price will stay at the higher position, as there's people starting to sell their coins to take profit.

Finally, a month after halving, the price will be at least 10% lower than original because people  started to take profit/stop loss, and bitcoin mining become less popular etc.

(the above prediction is based on a distributed altcoin's price, now it is valued at less than 10% of original)

There will be a bubble but it will burst quick again if we haven't solved once and for all the blocksize problem an everything is set and done and clear by then. We need to remove all those doubts from the minds of potential investors and we need to do it quick. I wish the devs would get their shit together.

Is this valid bro. ?

"~9 years from now when it drops to around 3 (bitcoins) every 10 minutes"

If yes, what would be the inflation then and what will be the % of the mined coins ?

The answers are all here.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

By 2024 93-94% of all coins will have been mined and that halving would push coin inflation below 1%

It's possible the halvings might move up a little bit but that's how they'll play out.

When the majority of people thinks that the apple falls from the tree, will the opposite happen?
Besides, we are so conditioned through the last 1.5 year that the price moves down, couldn't the opposite be up this time?

It is not a smooth adjustment, the new supply is decreased with a sudden 50%. Hard for the price to not react in the months leading towards the halving. Miners anticipate and will stop selling months before the halving, users will start accumulating/hodling, etc etc.

This is not rocket science, just replace bitcoin for apples and think what would happen if you would know the supply of apples would halve.

For this halving I don't believe much is going to happen at the time of halving. The good thing though there will not be as much sell pressure as there is now saying that though I don't think we are going to see some crazy price rise.

We might have the whales create a well timed pump to coincide with it but that is all there is not going to be more demand because of it is there>? Or the door is not going to burst with many more buyers, just a little less sell pressure which is good enough, miners don't get to dump so much on the market.

In theory, my money is not on risk if there is a fork. In fact I'll have double the money...
If I have 10 BTC in "Bitcoin Core chain", I'll have automatically 10 BTC in the new "Bitcoin XT chain".
The best you can do to not take risk, is not move any of the chains.
Of course, lots of problems will arise. Will signature campaigns pay in Core or XT? will the main merchants move their business to the new chain? it's madness..

Hehe, this makes me lol.
OP refers to the halving in mining reward, 12,5 btc per block instead of 25 btc.

http://bitcoinclock.com/

He actually copypasted my comment from here lol

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1076332.msg11499287#msg11499287

If you at all think Bitcoin is like money, then the price WILL go up in value because new-money printing will be cut in half. There is no debating this if Bitcoin is at all like money.

Maybe the halving will tell us if Bitcoin is a money replacement or just a race to buy tulips.

Interesting statement. I have not seen it like that. Probably halving will be an indicator if Bitcoin is seen as a real store of value or just play money. If first holds, the price must go up short term after halving.

Trick question:

If the inflation rate of the dollar dropped from 8% to 4%, what would happen to the value of a dollar?

The answer is that the value will drop by 4% over the next year.

Now, apply that to bitcoin:

When the inflation rate of bitcoin drops from 8% to 4% in 2016, what will happen to the value of a bitcoin?

That tulips was a actual bubble.

So are you suggesting that its the same with bitcoin? cause the tulip prices fell drastic back in the day when they found more of them being available.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

lol, exactly my face when stuff like this happens

 I think it can rise price to even 500$-600$ very optimistic,than will be dump.Higher price maycause technology development and more competitive mining,now most of btc is mined in Chinaand China is dictating price

I tend to think of block reward reductions as reductions in the sell pressures  btc rather than as a potential reason for lots of users to rush in and buy

Yea the halving could stimulate half of what's needed and that's supply. The other half is demand which seems to be growing but the price shows otherwise. 12.5 BTC every ten minutes is still a lot though, but on the other hand a 50% reduction in supply is also a lot. It will be interesting to see if anything happens.

Yes, I am suggesting that is exactly what we will find out

Since the halving is a known future event, it should already be priced into the current price.

Miners are presumably planning in advance for the halving.  Right now, nobody should be buying hardware that won't make money after the halving.  A lot of older hardware will be shut down as no longer cost-effective.

interesting.
but i find it wrong to compare dollar market to bitcoin market. dollar is way more stable than bitcoin.
bitcoin market has a lot of inexperienced bag holders that dump their coins with a bad news and jump in buying with a small good one. besides the whales that control the price can never control dollar price at "the same scale".

Plus that bitcoin is a new technology and still a lot of work are into it and more will come for sure.

People is adpating it as well, but in a very slow motion.

Bitcoin is way underestimated right now.

Let's say we are one month away from the Halving block reward (25 BTC => 12.5 BTC) and the price 300$ , okey ?
Now Let's say that the demand stays the same and all stays the same (supply dosen't of course , gets halved) , shouldn't the price become 600$ per BTC ? logically it should be doubled , nah ? :o

it's possible that by the time the halving comes, the miners will be more efficient with their future 16 nm processing, and thus mantaining the hash power the same as it is right now, even after the halving will occurs,

so the price will remain the same but so the hash, not looking good indeed


yes, but like i said above, there is  the possibility that the hash will be half of what it is now, or that the hashpower remain the same because better miners will come out, and the price will also remain the same, this is one of the worst scenario, the worst ever is the dead of bitcoin of course

Just before the halving I expect a slight pump but nothing major and it won't last. What difference is a few coin a day not hitting the market going to make? Sell pressure will be reduced a small amount nothing  amazing though, time will tell won't it.

No, because it is not a simple function where if the supply halves, the price doubles, and no because the supply of bitcoins continues to rise, only the supply of new bitcoins goes down by half.

I always expect the worse! Bitcoin will die and we'll switch to a new cryptocurrency!

Another trick question:

Why do some people insist that the supply of bitcoins will fall at the halving, when the supply of bitcoins will actually continue to rise at the rate of 75 per hour.

Sounds Interesting! How does that happen?
The numbers of miner will increase or..?  ??? ???

I don't think so , Bitcoin is original and basically all the other cryptoo currencies are some cheap copies of Bitcoin .
So unless someone comeup with a new idea better then Bitcoin and not just a copy of it ... no one is going to switch anything with anything else.

i believe they are just talking about the mined supply, not the actual total supply


are you serious, he is talking about the total supply, we are around 14M now, it's obvious that it will keep rising until 21M...

I don't understand what you mean by Bitcoin is original! Bitcoin wasn't the first cryptocurrency!

Here's a paragraph from Wikipedia!


Edit:

I'll tell you what I understood and what I didn't!

What I understood:
1) The mining reward halves in every four years!
2) I know we've reached 14M coins!

What I didn't understand:
How will 75 coins increase per hour when the reward will decrease by a half?

the difference is that bitcoin is the first decentralized crypto, also those other crypto are not based on complex hash fuctions, they are like electronic money, nothing to do with bitcoin

so yes bitcoin is the first, don'tc compare it to that e-gold centralized garbage

The current reward is 25 BTC, which increases the supply at the rate of 150 per hour. After the halving, the supply will continue to increase, but at the rate of 75 BTC per hour.

I would like to expect that the price of bitcoin will rise with the halving but I'm not so sure. It's hard to say what the price will be tomorrow never mind in a year and halfs time.

that's true, bitcoin is unpredictable

And what is your explanation for your assumption? Would be interested how you come to this.

I will tell what will happen. The price will be anticipated, so massively that it will crash hard on these days. After that kind of beartrap and then it will stabilize at the previous price and then and only then, will gradually, organically increase.

i think if the price can survive long enough till it reaches the halving in 2016 and it stays at this range that it is right now, it is going to go up.

don't hold too much hope in that "gradually increase" it could skyrocket in few days like it did with the 1200, now all those big news are like compressing the "spring"(bitcoin), when they will release it you will see what will happen to the price

for now it's better to expect some more dangerous crash or a bad price for not disappointing your expectations

yes i agree that price will rise when production of the coins get halved. but slow rise, don't expect fireworks

I think the price is going to go up, then down, and then up again. Or, it will go down, then up, and then down again. Either way, it is going to go up or down, or maybe stay the same.  ;)

where did you get the number from?

its an interesting question, because what could happen could affect the price, and the price could affect what could happen.

If the price going into the drop is too low, the network hashrate will decrease because certain mining operations will no longer be profitable. With the dropping out of some cloud mining services over the past year, I imagine many of these operations are operating on razor thin margins and just hoping that the valuation increases.

This, in turn, could increase the percentage of enthusiast miners, that don't care about the price and would support the network regardless. Which potentially increased hoarding, supply goes down, commercial operations come back in...

And the other 2 unknowns that could influence what happens are the costs of energy and any increases in efficiency. And of course the other is general world affaris. Bitcoin as global buffer currency is still a phenomenon that we haven't fully witnessed yet.

So, in summary, I expect more of the same = bitcoin will continue to function as a global asset / currency / remittance system with perhaps a slight redistribution in hashrate.

What is really interesting is to consider what will happen when the block reward is 0, considering the feature meant to compensate is transaction fees, but the blocksize limit hinders the ability of the transactions fees to compensate... so there's a lot of work to be done. In regards to this, I think the halving will wake everyone up to the importance of transaction fees in sustaining the network and get some real solutions to this blocksize problem.

sorry for the OT.

apparently some users does read only the last post of the thread...

here for your nuisance

yeah, I agree. even if after halving and all it follow up hype, the bitcoin prices rises it is not going to go to the moon. I doubt if it goes anywhere $1000-$1200 which we saw in the last bubble.

There is no reason for anything to happen. If the price of Bitcoin goes up, it will have nothing to do with the mining rewards halving. A decrease in the mining rewards has no effect on the existing money supply.

Price will go up, media will go nuts, people will fomo then it will crash.

i think we have to keep in mind that block reward decreasing means that miners will earn less bitcoin. and since they are not dumping what they earned right after they got it, it doesn't necessarily mean that "supply" which is the "quantity supplied by producers" or being sold in the market is going to be decreased at the same rate.

Price will go up or less people will mine. Or if those will stay same, price of electricity will halve, but that is quite unlikely to happen.

The price started going up right after the last halving ;)

this next one is going to be REALLY interesting. Mining operations are already at a massive scale ASICs(ASICs) compared to what they were during the last halving

Quotes like this amuse me. How there is no obvious correlation in your mind is a real curiousity.

At any rate, the price will go up if exchange demand stays the same.

This is silly. Lets say for a minute that 135k coins actually get trade each day, even though its known that a lot of chinese volume is fake.

So for the price to stay the same it takes around 67.5k buys and 67.5k sells. Now lets subtract 1.8k from the sells. Now we have a 1.8k deficit or about a 2.7% daily deficit. Now over 365 days thats close to a 600k coin deficit. In other words a 985.5% coin deficit on the sell side. If you don't think 600k coins will move the exchange market, just watch.

Before the last halving the price was between $8-$12.  A few months later it was at $200+. A few months later it was at $1250. It was not a coincidence.

More people will front run it this time, so the effects could be spread out and not as intense. Then again, its 50% fewer coins than last time, so it could be more intense, depending on demand.

I believe that the halving will have an effect over a long period (reducing inflation from 8% to 4%), but no discernible effect in the short term. The change in supply is just too small to make a noticeable difference. If you believe differently, then please explain why the price remained completely flat for two months after the first halving.

The bubbles that began in March and October had nothing to do with the halving.


It doesn't make sense that 12.5-to-6.25 change will have a much bigger effect than the 25-to-12.5 change. I suppose you believe that when the block reward drops from 2 satoshis to 1 satoshi, the result will be out-of-this-world even though there will already be 2,000,000,000,000,000 satoshis in circulation.

What do you think will happen to the price when the reward goes to 0? By your logic, bitcoins will become priceless.

To make a blanket statement that the reduction of inflation 50% had nothing to do with the 2 bubbles is pure head in the sand. The fact that the first bubble happened a couple of months after really is only a reflection of the culmulative/compound aspect of a reduction in inflation. Hence my 2.7% explanation.

The exchange markets control and set the price of BTC.  People who sell on the exchanges are A) traders - the largest and B) miners - the 2nd largest group. Very few long term holders sell on exchanges. At least at current prices.

When miners have many fewer coins to sell, the equilibrium will slowly swing upwards.

The last 2 bubbles were a combination of this fact, willy bot, and closed loop fomo.  Sans the willy bot, the same factors will be in play after the next halving.

A drop of 6.25 vs. 12.5 is arguably not as strong. However, I believe that most non-trader buyers are long term holders/investors so if the demand remains constant the supply will be in more and more jeopardy.

There is also the psychological aspect of scarcity. Yes, logically you know that there are only 21 million coins in future supply. But human emotions - the things that drive market prices - don't react logically. When scarcity is promoted or the idea seems more prevalent, the market will react emotionally. Its like global warming. Most people dont care until something happens to effect them personally that they think is related to global warming. Most humans have no foresight. They are driven by in-the-moment emotions and reactions. Financial market traders are some of the most notorious extremists of this type.

Hence I expect to see front running of the halving a good 6+ months prior to halving as bitcoin is now much more in the news, press and has a much larger base of investors and traders than in 2012.

We will probably see price rise into the halving and then possibly dip after (buy rumor, sell news).  That is why I said the effect may be more spread out this time. However, the supply/demand aspects will still be in effect even if it dips. I would fully expect it to rise again.

Higher fees to get a transaction processed.

Imagine if the halving would happen tomorrow.. it's obvious what would happen, the price would go up insanely, but probably would not double.
The halving isnt a mistery when it comes to terms of price, its what will happen until then is whats unknown.
We could easily see a 100-150 USD prices until the halving and then the same range we have today; it all depends on the demand until that date.
imho it's safe to assume that what ever happens, people probably wont loose money if the invest today, and hold their coins until the halving, but nothing is guaranteed.

cheers

Wait until the end of this year, I agree if the price stable until end of this year, let say around $320 I'm sure will going up in 2016.

if it will go up(and it will), expect a crash after that, because many holders are just waiting 1k target, for selling their stash, i presume we get rid of those, in the journey for the 10k target, but then expect another bigger crash, if we ever reach that sum with this halving

if we repeat the same pump of the last ath, we should increase x 10, this mean around 2k in price for the next halving

Bitcoin is the only commodity in history that has a GUARANTEED REDUCTION in rewards by 50% every few years until returns drop to ZERO.Bitcoins value will skyrocket

...

I am not sure that halving the reward rate will make much difference in the BTC price.

Keep in mind that the stock:flow rate of BTC is getting higher all the time (more BTC around vs. less production).  But the stock is so large that the new production does not add much to the new supply.  What seems to me to be a larger component to future price moves in BTC is demand, as the supply numbers are known and so tiny.

And yet over 7% of all bitcoins are owned by one person. Even with a massive upswing in demand the price can be tanked overnight.

Litecoin halving in 2 months and look what the price has done in the last few weeks.  That should give you an idea.

eehm not exactly the same because...

first the reward is different, litecoin is still at 25, and bitcoin will be 12.5, so it is better to compare this ltiecoin halving to the last halving of bitcoin, which is also pointless

second they have a different market cap, the result will be vastly different

third the network of litecoin is divivded in many other scrypt coin that are worth it, instead speaking about sha256, there is no competitor for bitcoin

I would like to expect that the price of bitcoin will rise with the halving but I'm not so sure.

dont we all. :D and then people will see more of it like gold lol.

This is just my view, but in some effect. Since bitcoin acts like western union, and these gambling sites need these guys, so its like holding a part of western unions monopoly?

lol, you must be trolling or seriously don't know what you're saying. it's all about supply and demand. if there is less supply price will go up of course. even when supply doesn't increase much from current level.

I think thats pretty much everyday of bitcoin.

not just halving, most people read reddit and go nuts - and fear is what usually drives the price.

Ummm, it is also about demand. If supply goes down, the price goes down if demand goes down more.

Well I think demand will always be there, this is not even naive thinking, theres a always a huge percentage needed by money laundering like the gambling site right?

So its just the other percents that effect the possible price, like just buying it for more other reasons like gold value and how many people who see that same view.

If Bitcoin is as cheap and efficient to use as people say, then the demand will plummet because people don't need to hold it in order to use it.

i say the "hype" alone will affect the bitcoin price significantly. as you can tell by the comments and topics on the matter, people mostly agree on a price jump as a result of halving.
and also not to forget about what happened in the past, what impact the last block halving had on the price will happen again.

Gold prices in March of 2013 were hardly affected. Bitcoin price rose from less than $20 March 1st to over $135 at the end of March, an almost 700% increase in USD Bitcoin price. Those locals affected headed for cover into the emerging Bitcoin market. Considering the fact that a mere $500 million Bitcoin market, at the time, is easily swayed by a swift influx of new money, it’s not hard to understand the explosion in value. So consider that a warning shot of what is to come.

in this world everything is about probability, nothing is certain(minus the death maybe), the probability say that when the block halving will occur around that time the price should rice, there is more chance that it will rise and not the contrary

the story has taught us that, every big coin with their halving, has always eneded up with a better price so based on this, one should hope

If anything the recent Litecoin rise should reflect on the argument about the halving being priced in already for BTC.

I expect an exponential over linear increase in the price suprsingly enough, the foundations of Bitcoin have been growing stronger and while the last price pump was due in part due to Mtgox speculation, the fact the market followed it provides a strong argument that if enough attention is paid to an event such as the halving and people get interested again the demand may push it forward.
That said hopefully issues such as a blockchain fork are solved by then so that it ensures others that its worth paying more attention towards.

Lol at the "rise"..... from $1.95 - $2.00..... wow guys, so amazing! such rise! we can expect the same for bitcoin next year!

On average, since the creation of Bitcoin, a new block has been created every 9 minutes and 20 seconds. This is 7% faster than the correct time of 10 minutes. Taking that into account, I predict that the next Halving will be at Jun 20, 2016.

However if the majority of people believe the price will go up then they will buy accordingly.  If this is the case, then buy orders will push up prices.

Price at $600+ some months before halving, then, price at $530 during/immediately after halving.

Looking at the previous halving and looking at whats happening to litecoin right now it seems to only be positive.  Maybe why block halving is so bullish is because the mining infrastructure has already been put in place, people have invested time and money.  Half the people would need to switch off for the market to not change.

The obvious common sense thing to think when demand is same as now but the supply has halved, the price should go up, so buy your bitcoins now and hold until the halvening :D

agree with your point wholeheartedly

while it seems obvious, i think you can not tell for sure that the market supply will be decreased just beacuse the block reward (new coins created) will be decreased. i mean there are many whales with big stashes and also all those big miners have a lot of coins stashed away, they can start dumping which can cause a lot of pressure on price.

The supply will not be halved.

The supply of new bitcoins will be halved, but that is not the same as the money supply or the supply of bitcoins for sale, which is more accurately described as the supply curve w.r.t. supply and demand.

it's better to talk about inflation halved then, seeing how many are not understand that after the halving of the reward, there will still be an increase in coin circulation every day, but halved

I will throw out a guess of $500 for the next halving.  Just wild speculation.

I think it's too much. Hopefully, we'll reach $300

I expect the price will increase to $500 in the halving year 2016

That is exactly what I think too. The more use of Bitcoin the more must the price be decline because shops / merchants usually exchange Bitcoin directly to fiat and this causes a bigger supply.

Did you not catch the interview with the Bitpay employee recently? He said almost all of the coins they process are immediately bought off market by a network of heavyweight buyers.

Payment processors will always be one of the most dependable sources of coins for people who don't want to mess around on exchanges. The merchant 'instant market dump' is a total myth.

the more bitcoin usage means the more people are buying bitcoin in the first place to spend it in shops / merchants. then it doesn't matter that if they dump afterwards or not.

I hope it's more than $500 dollars by then, and I hope bitcoin goes back up to around $1000. I'm not expecting it to do that but sincerly hoping.

I expect the price to be much higher than it is now

Thinking of a price rise surely many people will buy alots of BTC because there are alots of speculation that it might go to the moon which unlikely gonna happen..

I expect some doublings from the halving. Same procedure as with the last halving.

pretty much everybody is hoping to see a $1000 again.

but i am hoping for a steady rise not a rise or pump in the price which will cause a huge crash afterwards. the price needs to grow slowly but surely.

exactly !! we don't like to see a huge pump or huge dump. we only love to see if the market is much stable forever

What I expect from halving: $250 / 2 = $125

Or $500

Lots of speculation about the Bitcoin halving. I really want to see what will happen to the bitcoin price ...Probably up ;)

$500 seems a bit extreme, I say its going to still be in the near $200ish if lucky 300 zone.

Unless something drastic happens during this year or something.

Isnt the price been holding $250 steady for entire month.

I dont it`ll split to $125.. though. I know its been on a decline but still..

best odds, it wont.

it wont happen in a long time, like that gemini exchange does something similar like mt.gox did.

because of the halving approaching usually, the pump will see the light before the halving. $500 each btc I think

1800 less bitcoin dumped every day in 2016, if we take in consideration that every miner dump their coin
something will change

If price doesn't double I'd say we have a serious problem.  It would basically mean adoption is decreaseing as less money needs to come in daily to maintain price.

The price would increase in the run up to the halving... not necessarily immediately after halving.
So you would have no base to compare to.

what i predict is that the price will rise after the tx limitation is increase, this will act as a sort of another little block halving, that will encourage many to adopt bitcoin and thus rising its price

so i'm expecting two bubble in 2016 or from late 2015 to the end of 2016

I share your opinion. Price will rise in advance to the halving. And the miners won't increase their hashpower, they are going to wait for the reduced block reward.

The block halving wont simply double the bitcoin, it seems to send it into another price bubble. Consider we had a move from $10 - $266 and then a move from around $100 - $1200 all off the back of the previous block halving what do you think will happen this time now we are safely above $200 as a start point.

A bubble to 20k down to 8k then back up to 70k

I'm hoping the halving in 2016 will double the price in Bitcoin. I'm hoping the value of bitcoin gets to $1000 by then. I have a security contract witgh cloudminr.io and I hope by then I will have profitied quite substantially through trading.

Doubling seems topic, but bitcoin will go up a bit for sure - if will survive till that time

doubling seems the minimum that it should happen with the halving, i'm expecting far more than that to be honest, a good return to the 1k price, will be a better thing to reflect the halving

if we can correct the price by 5 usd every week(like we are doing with the last mini-pump) we have already a 250+ increase before the halving

There is a lot of wishful thinking, speculation, and random guesses in this thread. I can do that too.

It seems pretty straightforward: half the bitcoins, half the price. Sell now.

Or wait till it goes back up to $1,200 to buy then sell at $250 cuz you need the money. lol

Lol. Funny troll post.

I expected such a comment from a newbie, but certainly not from a high ranked hero member. You just seem to live in a fantasy world, like plenty of other people here are.

well no there are some bases that tell you why it should skyrocket to x2, and 1k is only x2 that, you really think that it is so far stretched that bitcoin will reach 1k around the next halving? what i believe is that 1k is even a low amount for the next halving

if the demand stay the same(very likely) the price must rise to accomodate the fact that there will be less dumping, this is a fact

now let's give equal chances of a rise and a decline(because they are unknown)

if the demand rise you will get an amount that is above x2 of current price(because of the 12.5 reward)

if the demand decline you will get the same price as now(because of the 12.5 reward)

so we have in the end, 33% chance that it will double due to halving, 33% that it will increase above the doubling of the halving, and 33% that it will stay the same, now it's obvious that the probability is toward a rise...

It's obvious that the price will increase when there is less supply, most people will agree. Especially when demand stays the same. 50% less supply doesn't mean we'll see the price increase to x2 from current price.

That's what most people hope for, but we still have to deal with a huge load of people who are ready to sell to benefit from the rise. I think a fair estimate would be at around $400 when halving is done.

It would be very interesting to get an idea of where freshly mined coins go. I would guess very, very few hit an exchange. They're either hoarded or sold with pre existing OTC deals.

Either way, other than some sort of psychological boost, I think the effect on price will be borderline negligible unless demand goes through the roof. There are more than enough sellers of existing coins to satisfy everyone.

Your assumptions are questionable and the math doesn't work that way because:

1. Supply and demand include all bitcoins, not just newly minted ones.
2. Supply and demand are curves and their intersection determines the price.
3. The halving doesn't decrease the money supply, it decreases the growth of the money supply.
4. Those outcomes not the only possible outcomes and the probabilities are just wild guesses.

i just made it simple without all the hassle about it, i know there are more variables in play(like miners efficiency)

well you can lock one and predict how the market will play, this how you do it with two variables

i was not talking about the total supply of course, but about the mined supply, which is the block reward...

they aren't wild guesses at all, they are all based about what will happen if the demand changes in only 3 possible ways, up, down, remain the same

up and remain the same are in our favor, because of the supply halving unless miners efficiency will be so big, that they will consume 1/2 of what they consume now to match the halving, which is impossible

and there is no guessing here, the efficiency doesn't double within a year, actually it is more slim than many think, around 10%


and anyway it is a matter of simple logic, we know what will happen with the supply, so the only real variable is the demand here, the other variable is the coins that are held by early adopters, but i will not take those into consideration because they are a big portion of demand too, so we can consider them neutral

fact 1 if the demand rise the price must rise, because the supply(mined supply, aka block reward) will be halved
fact 2 if the demand stay the same, the price must rise, because the reward will be halved
fact 3 if the demand decline the price will probably decline, it depend on how much it will decline, because if the decline will not be greater, than the less absorbtion that the market need to absorb, because there are less coins dumped from the miners, then the price will stay the same

so we have two cases where the price will go up and one where it will probably go down, now it is clear like the sun that there are more chances of an increase than a decrease, here no one was talking about a 100% increase scenario, only probability, like always it work

At the risk of beating a dead horse ...


Then the demand you are talking about must be the demand for newly mined bitcoins, right? Either way, new bitcoins are indistinguishable from old bitcoins, so it doesn't make sense to talk about only new bitcoins.


Basically, that is invalid because you are comparing the demand for all bitcoins to the supply of new bitcoins. The supply of new bitcoins is halved, but the supply of bitcoins continues to rise.


I have a bag containing 99 marbles. There are three colors of marbles in the bag: red, green, and blue. If I pick one at random, what is the probability of it not being red? The correct answer is not 2/3. I'll let you figure out why not.

...



Ah, that probability would vary between some 6% and 93%!  Depending on how many marbles of each color are in the bag.  Need to have an idea of the distribution of each color in the population, also assuming each marble the same size, texture, physical placement of marbles within the bag, etc.

1 well the old bitcoin are only in the early adopters end, at least the majority, the other are tiny fraction, they won't impact the market at all if dumped, as i said early adopter are also a part of the demand

yes it continue to rise but with an halved rate, so less dumping on the market, this mean that the price will rise as a consequence if the demand stay the same and nothing else will change, this is a fact, i can't see nothing wrong about it...

ok what is the chance of it being green or blue? surely greater than the chances of it being red, you can't deny this come one...this is base probability

There are 66 red, and 33 green and blue. The chances of being non-red are 1/3 ... less than the chances of being red.

well but one should assume equality between unknown variables, exactly because they are unknown, so the cases must be done with 33 red 33 blue and 33 green, otherwise it does not make sense, because i might say that there are 49 green 49 blue and 2 red...

Agree, but if you follow the current price stability of Bitcoin and if it goes on this way then we will certainly see a price increase.
Adoption of Bitcoin is becoming better from day to day. Not the growth rates as in 2013 and 2014 but it is still pretty high.

Exactly.

I would like to expect that the price of bitcoin will rise with the halving but I'm not so sure. It's hard to say what the price will be tomorrow

Logically, that would be the expected outcome. However, logic alone does not dictate the price of bitcoin. But I am glad to see the price rising.

Your "logic"  fails to consider the #1 determining factor of BTC price: SPECULATION

we should expect btc price to go up when the next halving took place. I mean the reward of solving a block is getting less, thus should indirectly reduce supply of new coins to the open market.

Almost at the 1 year countdown!

considering that all the halvings happened before the expected, we already are in the less than 1 year countdown

There has only been one halving.

That halving happened before schedule due to increased hash rate. This time will happen again, if the price is higher, thus the has rate.

Restricted supply, plus increase in demand should make the price appreciate.

That is true. How much is the question.

If Bitcoin is getting a part of internet of things applications then the price will explode. Otherwise we will see slow increase over the years, IMHO.

If the demands stays the same and correlates with the decrease in the supply, I'd say there will be a price appreciation. But if the price didn't rise, then bitcoin has a lot of catching up to do.

The supply of bitcoins will continue to increase after the halving, albeit at half the rate. There will be no decrease or restriction of supply.

rush day in 2015 ... and what the halving do on this ?
 ;D a lot of good things.  :D

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img673/5390/33wdk0.jpg

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http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img910/8151/REqF63.jpg

I bet the mining industry will try to pump the price as good as they can. They will have trouble selling miners when the ROI halves.

I expect a price pump before it happens, followed by a dump, and after some time the stabilization of prices, until the new status quo arises(at least double prices or the start of the collapse of the network)

At that point, the miners will most likely sell dirt cheap just to break even or make it up other ways.

I mean I`d jump all over it, once that happens but only to back up if I had mining contracts with some cloud mining co. like genesis.

what about the lost coins and the scammed coins.

The supply shouldnt always be in a increase, there was a # of how many are left. And after a certain amount you cant mine after 21 mil. or whatever hard coded #.

The supply of bitcoins will continue to increase after the halving, albeit at half the rate. There will be no decrease or restriction of supply.
[/quote]

agree so the halving is like adding a cup of hot water in a cold bath.

what also distorts any limited price movement is that in the lead up people will make their own assessments about the impact on price so by the time it happens they may have "over valued" it ie the price may actually fall a bit

finally if you look at 2015 to date the price has been roughly $250 +/- $50. ie about 20%+/_  so i think there is so much "swirl" (volatility) in price that you may not even be able to see a reaction to the halving when it happens.

best turn your energy and efforts to slowly buying and holding.

Well that's exactly what happened with the 2013 halving. Better buy in while bitcoin's still relatively "cheap."

Depending on how far it goes up after the halving, I might actually get out of all the bitcoin I have right now, then just buy back IF it dumps back down.
I never buy fiat and go into bitcoin, I just earn it from programming or jobs on here.
So if the price rises to 1k or higher, with solid support, I will get out and put money into fiat. Then work my way back up trough jobs or signature campaigns.
Or by the time it halves, if bitcoin is mainstream, I will just keep it in and buy myself a nice computer or a new monitor.
If I understand correctly, halving will create a 2x higher demand, and therefore the price will rise.
It doesn't make sense for it to fall, because of LESS bitcoins being printed every day.

http://t.qkme.me/3lcd.jpg
cold stash separate from trading stash

I suspect for a bit for mining to be hard to do.  It will take time to adjust to the new block reward.

Eventually hopefully value goes up to reflect this, what this value will be I have no idea.  But I do not think this will be a overnight process.  I think were talking about months.

the supply will always increase until 2024, where its increase would be negligeable, and the next halving after that will be basically pointless, this next halving and the next two halving are the more significant, and are the best three halving that will have a big impact on the market

lost coins aren't the same as a scammed coin, the first will not impact greately the market the second will be dumped fast which mean more consolidation at that wall at which the dump will happen

months or even years! who knows what can happen anyway. it's too sensible to the problems from outside

50% less supply won't automatically means price will double. it will go up, but the question is, how much. in bitcoin you never know what will happen, we've seen plenty of surprises already.

I don't think the mining industry has any significant impact to the price.
Human greed will kick in including the fear of missing out.
Almost like a self fulfilling prophecy. Exciting times are ahead of us.

If btc price doesn't goes up, we will have a hard time. Difficulty will drop, transaction cost will be higher.
But with the supply being the half and demand te same or higher, I expect a big big bubble.

The fact of permanently more scarce new bitcoins is a reason to pay more. That's the definition of lowered supply. I will accumulate as many as I can until then

Miners that can afford it will stop selling their coins a couple months before the halving and wait for a price increase.  This will effectively cause a lower supply before the halving.

Bitcoins are not consumed, so the halving does not mean the supply is 50% less. It means the increase in the supply is 50% less. The supply continues to increase after the halving.

That's right. The current constant Bitcoin price means that there is a new need of about 3000 BTC daily. if the daily BTC creation will be halved then the price must finally increase constantly.

Constant is a bad assumption. There is nothing constant about the supply or demand of bitcoins. In fact, until recently, the falling price means that demand has been falling relative to supply.

I figure we're probably going to see another bubble and bust before then and that the new reward level will contribute to having the price settle down at a higher level than it's at now.

people seem to think that the halving will reduce sell pressure from mining farms, even though theres evidence to suggest that a lot of these mining farms that are actual businesses that dont sell bitcoin (e.g. bitfury, 21inc) i think nothing will happen.


if you guys want the price to increase, stop trading bitcoin on shit websites.

Halving will not have any effect on price. There will be 3/4 of all coins in rotation already. It will only have effect on difficulty...

I disagree. the next block reward halving in 2016 could be a trigger.
the supply of bitcoins dumped in the market would reduce and could trigger an increase in price.

Can't wait for Gemini.   

Halving just change the monetary supply. If the market has the same amount of money flowing into BTC, then the price will rise.

a maximum of 1800 coins will be dumped only per day in comparison with 3600 of today, which is 500k+ less to absorb, how is this not significant?


as a far as i know it won't be something special, just a regular exchange, maybe with more regulation and i hope bigger leverage, that's it, i'm not expecting a big jump in the price because of this

Not thinking about a price jump, I'm just excited to trade on a very public/highly regulated exchange..  I hate sending fiat to the exchanges as they are.

gemini sounds quite exciting as how the winklevoss bro's presented it, but i really hope their words will become reality once gemini is in full operation.

1800 coins per day out of 100's of thousands of coins traded per day is insignificant, but the inflation rate is reduced from 8% to 4%, and that should have a small long term effect -- perhaps 4%.

as i see it a reduction of 50%(from 8 to 4) is equal to an increase(of the price in the long term) of 100% so 4% is not right, unless you think that right now we have a 2% effect on the market....

In my opinion, halving is overrated.

It can lead to a short-term bubble, as many people are speculating taking it into their calculations. But 1) the coins sold by the miners are currently not a very high amount compared to the daily BTC exchange volume. And, 2) most long-term speculators are already calculating their valuations basing them on the 21 millions of bitcoins that will be the final "coin supply".

Other factors like adoption are far more important than halving.

Does your logic also work when there are nearly 21 million bitcoins and the halving goes from 2 satoshis down to 1 satoshi? When the halving goes from 1 satoshi to 0 satoshis, would the 100% decrease cause a 200% increase or an infinite increase in the price?

Yes. The last halving triggered several doublings in price.

this is math, man... it's not my logic, you can't say 4% based on a subtraction of the inflation rate from 8 to 4, that's not correct

if you want real numbers then you should compare the total coins that will be less dumped(presumably 1800) with the total coins(including the mined coins) that will be dumped each day, or that are dumped each day

if for example the total coins dumped per day is 10k coins(i doubt is so high) per day for now(including the 3600 mined coins), with the halving this will lead to a reduction of almost 20%(10k-1800), which mean that the demand will go up by roughly 25%

this assuming that the demand will remain the same until halving, so even if the demand will remain the same and the price the same, with the halving alone the price will increase by 25% which mean around $360

Get yours cheap Bitcoins. People are soon going to wake up and realize the next halving is getting close.
;)

IMO nothing will happen until weeks before, not months. 3-4 weeks.

If we obviously cant wait for gemini, we just have to hold strong until they do start.

Theres really of no choice at this point since there are only so many exchanges available to us. All we can do is hope the prices hold until they launch and expect a bigger outcome to increase the value for the days we waited so it makes up for it.

I don't know what you mean by "total coins dumped per day". The total volume of coins traded per day is in the 100s of thousands, and a change by only 1800 per day is not going to have a noticeable daily effect, though it will have a long term effect.

Halving will halve the steady supply. If demand stays the same, we will go up !!!

Demand is always here to stay.

And its based on levels of demands, since we are the few people who buy it.  Like whales, casino site owners, then the early adopters and like us. Most of the casinos like primedice need the bitcoin anyways since its paying outside investors and keeping the casino alive.

Zoom out!

I expect a 10x price increase. It might start a couple months before and take a long time after having day to play out fully (like last time it took half a year or so). Right after having day itself I wouldn't be surprised to see a sizable dip even.

I hated you as a bear.  :) You were mostly right, though. I pretty much agree with your view about the effect of the halfing.

traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"

if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said

a 10x increase from current price? nah, surely not. i expect such predictions to come from newbies and other people who are not realistic. definitely not from a member as you.

That is a bod prediction in my opinion. i guess the price will not increase that much. it will double from the current price at most within the next year.

Maybe you are right but I don't think so. You think that the price will go high because of the halved production of bitcoins in a block? What make it special to be counted? I don't think that there is nothing special on it. Even if it will be few bitcoin produced in the same time. I don't think that the price of bitcoin it is fixed by the demand of it. To very few people use bitcoin. I think that the price of bitcoin depends for to many other factors one of the most important is speculation. And the speculation have nothing to do with the produced bitcoins.

The large rocket

He's talking about transaction volume and number of unique transactions per day. Both of those are available on blockchain.info if you trust their stats. Don't get too excited. I used to play at trading and would make 50-100 unique transactions a day shifting coins around. The exchanges shift around masses of coin and sometimes move 50k or more coins in a single transaction. Mining farms paying out their miners shares are making transactions. Miners may only generate 1,800 coins but those coins are split and paid out to thousands of people. Remember, if you simply transfer coins from a cold wallet to a hot wallet or vice versa without spending any coin that's a transaction. I would guess that transactions where someone is actually spending coin on something (not day trading or shifting around) is about 10% of the transaction volume.

I know it's a bold prediction. Predicting outcomes everyone thinks are likely is lame... We'll see...

Edit: Yes, From Current price. so 3000 USD/btc

Edit2: if my Prediction comes true, people will probably deny that it was an effect of the halfing. Like last time they will come up with explanations that make for a better sorry. Like cyprus, lol.

It's quite unlikely to happen I guess.

Maybe will go high but not for the halved fact. Was not verified when was the first half of amount (from 50 to 25). At least i don't remember this. So have no reason to be verified with this second halved.

We exactly 1 year before the Halving block reward , Price should rise but if miners give up on mining then it will go down and die like hell. but I guess if halving is done miners will ask for more as a price which will make price rise , so depends on what those Miner farms owners decide to do . they have our future

I am also hoping for a big price increase (lol aren't we all), but isn't 10x a little drastic? I think it'll maybe be around 2x to 5x.

Actually, researchers should examine it and should predict whether halving has really got such an impact on price  :)

If you go to http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/, you can see daily exchange volumes for most exchanges. The total today is about 100k BTC, but it doesn't include all exchanges.

At some point this year all of the stability recently combined with the upcoming halving is going to likely work together to create quite a violent bull market.

The next bubble will be incredible.

bull market is good ... when gov. can not freeze the value (like in gold now ...).
because low value ... permit to peoples to buy (like me).

Yes, a bull run is long overdue. It has been around 1.5 years since the crash from the ATH.
When it does happen, I hope I hold on tight.  ;D

You're looking at it the wrong way, I think. It doesn't matter how many coins are flipped by traders each day. What matters is the net demand and net supply.

It's not that bad to dream about unicorns every now and then, but hey! Maybe it would happen in the future, but next halving it will be highly unlikely. I expect just a 100% - 200% at most price rise if you would ask me. That is already a realistic guesstimate by me.

When something is widely expected in the financial markets, it is unlikely to occur.
Could be an antibubble before or bubble afterwards or beforehand.

If some serious fund wanted to push bitcoin upward, it would already be at 10K, no need to wait for halving.
Bitcoin issuance is ~1mil/day currently when AAPL and GOOGL traded $10-20bil worth in one day recently.
$1mil/day is nothing for even a medium size fund.

Double prices at least after the pump stabilization, if we are luck.

If not, then see what happened to Doge to see what may happen with BTC

I would hazard to guess that market players in 2012 were far more conscious of the underlying tech than they are now and the upcoming halving will have less of an impact.

Your average bot or Chinese dumper really doesn't give much of a shit. They're there to milk it for USD/CNY day in day out.

Doge was manipulated from the start of the price rise. I don't think it is correct to relate it to what may happen in btc. Bitcoin markets are full of traders and shorters and not wolongs who hold and manipulate. Doge is a different market, though.

I agree, but there is no way to measure that.

Furthermore, supply and demand are not numbers. They are curves. The price is at the intersection of the curves. The reduction of mined bitcoins will shift the supply curve, but without knowing what the curves look like, there is no way to determine what effect that shift will have.

There are different ways of estimating the effect of the change in supply.

If you assume that demand is constant over time (which is not realistic, of course), then a good estimate of the effect of inflation is simply to reduce the price by about the amount of the inflation. So, in this case at the time of the halving, the price would change from dropping by 8% per year to dropping by 4% per year.

Another way is to look at the change in volume over the entire exchange volume. This comparison itself overestimates the effect because people exchange bitcoins for other things of value, not just currency.

People are also treating the halving as a supply shock, when it isn't. While rate of increase in the money supply changes suddenly from 3600 BTC per day to 1800 BTC per day, the relative change in the money supply itself is quite small.

why would it have less of an impact if people are less conscious about it? If anything it would have more of an impact, because the halving is something real that will have an effect wether people are aware of it or not. People 'back in 2012' would've (if they were more conscious of the halving and its effects) priced it in earlier, too.


Exactly, so he will be forced to dump a higher percentage of his coins (or stop mining, depending on his efficiency and the bitcoin price) because his mining reward is cut in half. In aggragate, miners will dump less coins.

It's not about perception in this case.

Thanks for these comments. They are valuable.

We have to be careful when talking about "supply" in this context. It can mean 2 things:

• the money supply (14 million BTC and adding 3600 / day)
• the mining production output (amount of 'commodity' the producers are willing to provide to the market)

In the second meaning, the categorization of the halving as a 'supply shock' is correct.

The profitability of mining is a function of block reward and price. Although people know the block reward is halving they still don't know what the price will be, so how can the market price it in now?

A "supply shock" is a sudden shift in the supply curve. Technically, tere is a supply shock every ten minutes when 25 bitcoins are added to the money supply. You could also say there is a daily supply shock relating to the addition of 3600 BTC. It depends on the time scale.

The halving is not a supply shock. It is a reduction in the severity of the ongoing supply shocks.

in fact i was talking about net demand and supply but to have an estimate about that you need to know how much coin are dumped and pumped each day

I believe we will see a slight increase after the halving. Might it be because it will be priced in before or that after a pump a big portion of holders will take some profits in fiat and this will result in a smaller increase.
My wish of course would be that rocket goes moon and we are all on board.  :P ;D

How can the market price less BTC dumped by miners before if happen ???

If the price doubles just before the reward drop then possibly nothing happens. The miners will effectively have the same revenue they have today and can continue to happily mine away. If the price does not go to $600 or above then we can expect to see a bunch of people stop mining as their mining costs will remain the same but their revenue will be cut in half.

I think price doubling is a little much to ask at first.  I think there will be a slow move upwards.   Most likely before halving.

But just cut in half rewards it's to much wishful thinking for it to double once it hits.   I think it will be hard to be a miner at first of it.  Mining I predict comes back during it but there will be a point a lot of hobby miners have to stop for a bit.

If we are talking about demand and supply.

Wheres the new volume of demand going to come from? geminis new exchange when it launches? its a shame i ask about bitcoin and my friends still give me a blank stare.

Where did it come from last time? Adoption waves leading to an imbalance in supply and demand that coupled with the hype cycle as the price starts rising, a new bubble.

This time bitcoin will be easily accessible via coinbase, circle, dozens of exchanges globally, ETN's, and soon hopefully etf's.

Bitcoin doesn't really have to do very much except stay in this trading range as the halving approaches and it will do it's thing.

To me, although the logical thing would be a significant price rise (not a doubling, just the proportion of new coin scarcity plus a few other variables), because the halving effect is widely anticipated, it wouldn't surprise me if it took a dip, then just when everyone leaves the stadium, it then find its new upward movement.

100% indeed isn't unrealistic, although i think that already is a bit on the high side. 50% less supply doesn't mean a 100% price increase, but of course we hope so.

if demand stays the same or even increases then this assumption holds for halving  ;)

My theorie:
As everyone knows about the halving, I believe the price will drop. In anticiption of the upcoming halving people will max out their holdings in hope for a rally. When the rally does not materialize people will dump their coins and will drive the price south.

This is what I expect as well. Whenever, there has been a predicted event of price rise in bitcoin, it has gone down instead. I'm expecting the same this time as well. Block halving sell pressure may take the price below 100.

the price is too stable now to go up to $600! It's unrealistic. The time  of to the moons is gone

I dunno, it's already up to $285 when just two months ago it was it was $270. At that rate it will only take 8.33 years to be back at $1,000. LOL

I would not be surprised if the price rises as a consequence of the halving, or may be some time before it. So even if the halving does not change the supply, the speculation of future price includes what others think, so if one speculator thinks it doesn't matter, he might believe that other think it matters...

To expand about what supply and demand is in the market sense, the supply is what someone has and offers for a price on the market, and the demand is what others decide they want to buy for a certain price. Taking demand as an example, it can be expressed as a vector (two numbers) the price and the amount. You see this as the meme "if it goes to 120, I'll buy more, and if it goes to 100, I'll max out my credit card and buy all the coins..." So someone, you or me, might have a plan to buy some coins, and you decide to buy 2 if you can get them for 286.41 (one dollar less then the last price on finex at this moment). Then in your life, a few economic events happened:

1) Your salary appeared on your bank statement, and you have quite a few dollars.

2) Heck, it is 500 more than you expected?? Oh, I already paid off that credit card bill of 499 a few days ago, and I forgot it. Maybe 3 coins, not two...

3) Wife: My mother just called and invited us up to their place, it is beautiful there, and I don't like those long flights and sitting on a beach for two weeks anyway, I think we should go for it. (And you think, ah, thats a few thousand saved for a vacation, I think I can buy 6).

4) Dad, my phone works again, I just had to restart it and update the apps.

5) You just saw the price climbed 2 dollars, but what the heck, I just saw a video explaining the glory of bitcoin in country X, so I just buy 8 for what is currently on offer.

The price vectors constantly change in a persons mind, and when you add vectors of the same price, and put the vectors with other prices side by side, you get something that resembles the bid curve displayed on bitcoinwisdom, except it is an unseen curve, constantly changing, the aggregate of all demand vectors for all the people on earth.

The ask curve is something like it for people who might want to sell for a certain price.

The money quantity has some significance, because the more coins exist, the more you might think is on offer, but, not true if everybody wants to hold until they can obtain a much higher price.

~4x in 8 years isn't too bad.
A lot of people (non-bitcoiners) will be happy with that kind of return. :)

I think once the goverment abolishes physical money, people will naturally search for alternatives and will find Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the first thing that shows up in Google when you search anything related to that. The foundation is already there, we just need to let it develop.
The halving will be a nice pump for the people already in, but I dont think it will have any impact on mainstream adoption. Like I said before, mainstream adoption may happen when physical money is no more, and thats sooner than most expect.

$1,000 invested in an S&P 500 index fund in 2007 would be worth $6,820 today (almost 7x return), but the same $1,000 invested in the top 10 performing stocks like Celgene Corporation or Qualcomm would be worth $98,000. That's nearly 100x return.  Needless to say, I won't be happy with a 4x return on a super risky investment in 8 years.

I was just looking at the chart for historical halvings, and noticed that the last having literally happened right before our meteoric rise to $1100. That's when the block reward went from 50 to 25. Is that coincidental?

Well, if you consider a two month delay as "right before", I suppose the halving did occur "right before" the rise in February to $260.

Either way, the rise to $1100 didn't start until October, nearly a year later. The price was down or flat for the 6 months before that bubble started.

You might consider Nathaniel Poppers explanation that the presentations to Silicon Valley venture capitalists by Wences Cesares convinced a few to buy a bunch in February, triggering the bubble that popped in April.

It actually went up above $1,200 but most of that can be attributed to the fat latte drinking asshole at MtGox and his famous price cheating bots, Willy and Markus.

Do you really think the effect of the halving will show itself 'exactly on' of 'right after' the reward halfing?

Of course the effect will be spread out to a period starting well before the halving itself end ending well after it.

Let's look at last time:

https://i.imgur.com/6jPIoWM.png (https://i.imgur.com/6jPIoWM.png)

I say it was halving-induced. Price went from $5 to ~$125, a 25x increase. So I think my earlier estimation of a 10x increase is conservative under these assumptions.

Many seem to struggle with causality when the effects are not immediate. I should like to experiment on forum members by removing B12 from their diets, to demonstrate gradual and delayed effects.

that's it, it's not the halving itself that matter but the hype that will surround it, which will arguably boost the price to a good level

so it is clear that this hype will drive the increase long before and the effect will remain after the halving itself

look at litecoin halving, made the price x15 the same was with the last bitcoin halving x25(like he said) so it is legit to assume a 5k+ target this time

Great graphic - and I agree.  Keep in mind that the halving happened in 2013 where we saw not just one but two insane bubbles.  I do agree that the halving had a major role in the first.

The recent rise in price of Bitcoin and other coins exactly coincide with the rise in price of Litecoin that you attribute to its halving. So, you must believe that the Litecoin halving is the cause of the recent rise in price of all the other coins.

Also, Litecoin went up dramatically at the same time Bitcoin rose around the time of its halving. Was the rise in price of Litecoin caused by the Bitcoin halving?

Slight correction: the first halving happened on November 28th 2012 (see block 210,000 (https://blockchain.info/block/000000000000048b95347e83192f69cf0366076336c639f9b7228e9ba171342e)).

We are a little, mischievous imp, aren't we? And you know what imps like best? Being strapped and gagged.

Rumpelstilstkin can attest to my mastery.

Personally I think we'll see a bubble before the halving, and it'll pop a few months after, but my guess is just as good as anyone's.

I strongly feel there will be a big bubble because of the halving hype, maybe bitcoin can also expect some media interest as bitcoin sale spike up, then the halving process will take its toll on the bitcoin price and then eventually the price will notice increase attracting even more people. That's when it matters, if things continue to go the way they are for bitcoin, then I expect btc to be less volatile too.

When consensus is it will go up/bubble whatever, chances are it will not happen.

If we can bail Mark out of jail and get his bots working it might. lol

I don't think we will experience a bubble after the halving as much as a natural rise as the supply of bitcoin will go down and simple economics mean the price per bitcoin will go up mate :D

I expect that Bitcoin will be in a new bubble and I gain much profits from it.
But the price reaching around 500$ will probably not be a big deal.

which is a decrease if you think about it, a decrease in comparison to what it was before, this will have an impact if the price isn't already skyrocketed due to demand, in that case you will not be able to notice it

There is some confusion between "supply" meaning money supply, and "supply" w.r.t supply and demand. However, the halving does not decrease the "supply" in either of these cases -- it lowers the rate of increase.

The money supply is constantly increasing due to mining. When the halving occurs, the money supply will continue to increase but at a slower rate.

The increasing money supply tends to cause the supply curve to shift to the right over time, basically because there are more bitcoins to sell. Note that there are other factors that may have a greater effect on the supply than inflation (at least in the short term). After the halving, the increasing money supply will continue to cause the the supply curve to shift to the right over time, only more slowly.

I'm execting to see a build up of price months before the actual halving is going to take place, maybe even a hype in regards to price, and then
when the time of the halving actually comes, i think there's going to be steady dumping, followed by cascade of people cashing in, and in the end, most of
the people that think how the price will go up at the day of halving or so, will loose money. It's typical for bitcoin to make such moves.

cheers

I also think this. I think whatever happens many people are going to think there's going to be a dramatic rise so they'll buy like crazy which will then have an effect on the price, but the bubble will burst again eventually. I'm looking forward to what happens though.

I firmly believe that most of the price action is going to happen a few months before the block halving. I expect the prices to come a bit down again once the halving has taken place. The peak of the halving has to come down to a reasonable price level at that time.

I expect $5k-$10k/btc after halving.

The bubble may burst before or after the halving, but whats' clear is the price will be a lot higher than last ATH, and we'll have a lot of people jumping after the dumping thinking "this is the last chance" and will try to get the newly perceived as cheap BTC. Once we get all those people there a new floor is established, higher than ATH.

Hopefully by mid 2016 before the halving bitcoin will be far more in demand so it will push the price up due to scarcity rather than decrease due to lack of demand.

Nothing will happen because the price will have already adjusted long before the halving since people expect it to go up..

In other words, it probably won't move much upward or much downward, but stay at trends unaffected completely by halving.

Your forum rank doesn't give you much credibility. Isn't it just basic economics? Halving = less bitcoins. Less supply + consistent demand = rise in price.

i expect the price to go up, and it is possible to go past the $1200 mark again

Forum rank != credibility BUT
I agree with you that supply and demand will lead to a higher price, but I don't expect to see anything crazy in 2016. Once we get closer to 20 million is when the fear of missing out will hit.

Your forum rank doesn't give you much credibility either, but rank means little. It is just basic economics and basic math. Halving does not equal less bitcoins. The number of bitcoins will continue to increase after the halving. Greater supply and constant demand = drop in price. ... but it really isn't that simple either way.

I expect uprising interest and general fuss about bitcoin

What will happen? Learn from history  ;)

Are you serious? :o What is the reason for this expectation? in my wildest fantasies i would only expect a price around $500.

And that is in the year around 2140.
I know we all will be dead a long time before it.
So we have a responsibility to guide our children and grandchildren about Bitcoins.

Well, he didn't specified the time frame after the halving. Theoretically that means the price has to climb over 5k$ till 2020. Not that unrealistic with continued user growth, adoption and more and more use cases.

I expect just a 40% - 50% at most price rise if you would ask me. That is already a realistic estimate by me.

Do you find it realistic that magic internet money issued from a lottery of computers burning energy has risen from exactly 0$ to a 3B$ market cap in the span of 5 years?

This tendency to expect realistic scenarios and conservative outcomes in the world of Bitcoin is one of the most fascinating thing I will ever come across.

I wasn't here from the start, but since I've jumped in there has been no doubt to me that this baby is gonna eventually turn into a monster that will surpass EVERYONE's expectations.

Bitcoin is one of humanity's black swan event, possibly the most important of our time (and I speak for everyone alive reading this). It has the potential to quite literally turn the world upside down and might do so with a merciless swiftness.

Hang on to your hats gentlemen because if you hold on to this one and don't lose any coin on the way you are in for a treat and maybe a story that will last for a couple generations (as should your bitcoins, if you play it smart)  ;)

Yep- eagerly waiting for the hyper-bitcoinization.

I expect this price before the end of year 2016.

I expect one bull run to 400-500 is the pricing in of the halving, plus possible global economic troubles later this year.

I really would like to believe that. The prices haven't been anything special recently, but I am definitely excited for the next halving.

That is what I thought.

I personally think the halving news is priced in for the most part. However, I would not be surprised by hype

Whatever level it is trading, it will go up for sure.. Might be a pre pump then depends on new money after that

the halving isn't priced in already, if it was, then there would be a huge dump incomming as people would be very disappointed at that time.

Halving of blocks definitely will have impact on the price of Bitcoin.I see it as increase in price and would expect the price to be at least around 350 $ after halving done.

Halving does not definitely increase the price. The litecoin price was stable in recent halving.

You could say that epic pump that occurred beforehand was down to expectations, or Chinese dodginess. Nothing much happened with Doge either. I think people are forgetting other factors that were coming into play during 2012 for BTC. We'll see all the same.

If we calculate expenses of mining then there is a clear indicator to see an increase or decrease in price to make balance in mining expenses.Mining is necessary for the network to stabilize and secure it and this is possible only if mining will be profitable.I don't see decrease in price to cover this space so the only thing remained is increase in price.

I think it will either remain stable, or have a slight increase due to some pressure being let off from the downwards momentum we've got currently.

Well I think there is no stability in the prices it is always based on the customer's demand that makes supplier's price raise or go down.

Any theory is a fair guess, imo. But I do agree/hope that we'll get out of the downward slope we're currently in.

You can't say for sure if the demand will be same..i say so,because i think bitcoin is gaining more adoption day by day and may be next year there will be many new bitcoiners and demand will increase but supply will also be halved for sure so i expect the bitcoin price will increase atleast 3x at the halving and will bring a lot of profit to the people who are holding thier bitcoins ;D

I started this thread almost one year ago. Today, we are less than 2 months away from next halving (54 days exactly). The Bitcoin price has rised more than 100% since I started this thread back in May 2015.

Do you think it has something to do with the upcoming halving.

What are your expectations for the Bitcoin price for the next 6 months?

The most are hoping of course that the value will be more worth in this year but it is hard to know what the value will be and that is the problem.
But it was stable for a long time and that is bad so there must be a time soon that it have to rise.

Price has started to rise slowly now and that is the good sign for the bitcoin users and we can expect best price at the time of halving.

I expect the price to go down if the halving is going to begin. This way more people can manage to invest and buy bitcoins so I hope that the halving is going to happen anytime soon now.

My expectation is certainly very great. enough for me, the price could go back to touch above $1000 as of 2013.
but if it is difficult to achieve. can at least touch 600.

I lowered my expectations. We won't see a huge price spike anymore. Not before block halving, not after block halving. Maybe we might see 600's but that's already a realistic target for this year. If we encourage more people to use Bitcoin the price will follow up eventually.

I think the halving will cause the price to spike like 2 or 3 months after the halving, just like last time.

how much the price will rise exactly is hard to say though, it's been a long time since the price went up by orders of magnitude, i don't know if it will happen again, I think it might, but i'm not sure.

I hope the price of bitcoin be above $ 800. I think $ 1,000 is still very far from the current price but it was also very good when it occurs. but I am not too hopeful because it can be impossible if it did not happen halving

I don't have some big expectations anymore.The main purpose is already has been achieved and that is some kind of stability in price.There is some stability in price at 450 $ and this is biggest achievement and impact of halving.This doesn't mean there will not be any uptrend or increase just stability and minimum about what I talk now.

My expectations are not different than others.Once halving is near and after it we will see price over $ 600 for /Bitcoin.It is impossible for price to remain same.I don't have many Bitcoins but still what I hold will make me nice profit.I have made up my mind to sell at first pump in period of halving and then buy back when it goes in correction phase.

Well we all know very well for network safety and to keep it running mining is necessary.Halving is going to cut the reward in half which means cost will increase.Current price represents the price after halving.My theory is if these will be bottom price then we should see 650-800 $/BTC in next 6 months from now on.Our expectation is logical and there are serious reasons for this to happen.

I am expecting after block halving is the value of bitcoin will be double.. im not sure but we dont know what will happen after block halving.. ..
So im collecting more bitcoin as soon as i can..to make more profit one the block halving is done..

Yeah halving will take the price of bitcoin to a higher level and there is no doubt in it, and this halving will bring some smile on the faces of its users for sure.

people tend to overestimate short-term effects and underestimate long-term ones: they expect too much too soon and then, when they almost forgot, are surprised at the magnitude of the effect and barely make the connection any more.

this halfing will be no different.

Have to give you +rep for that because it's quite true about human psychology.

I am expecting higher price of halving as everyone is hoping for the same, we just need to have patience and some faith in bitcoin.

Forget halving 2016, I'm already looking forward to halving 2021 which is just five years away. If you are really truly long like me, then it may be something you might want to consider.

All the bitcoin that I accumulate now are with halving 2021 in mind. The reason why is that after this year's halving has run its course, I don't think we'll see prices below what they are today in the upcoming years. I may be wrong of course and maybe prices will drop back down to today's ranges or even lower. Maybe. But, I'm going to go ahead and plan for bitcoin being worth lots more around and after the third halving in any case.

Long and strong. Ride or die.

the thing is ... if you upgrade the transaction speed from 4 to 40 ... much people adopt this because it cost nothing compared to other service.

How many transaction are completed in Paypal, OKCoin, Alipay, etcs ... ?


---

In other view, we have the year 2013 ... for a good example of an halving.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1406951.msg14273356#msg14273356

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/8760/gXmvnu.png

From 10 USD ... to  100 USD.
And now, we are on 450 USD.

3 years : 10-100 USD
3 years : 100-450 USD

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img907/5898/D9zxFp.gif

You are not ready for this jump ... because trusted thinks doesn't really exist since Bitcoin network (well, yes ... the NTP server exist  ;D ).

well yeah, though i believe that we might need to wait a little bit more even after the process after the halving, hopefully the price rise will happen really soon and we wont have to wait a lot

i honestly expect a new all time high that would allow me to become a much richer person than i am right now, though any increase would be really good for me

Also consider the Litecoin halving last year:

https://i.imgur.com/VetkAR1.png

Yeah we don't expect price to skyrocket but at least it should show us some descent and good price that we have been waiting for since long time.

i don't completely agree with the way you say this. the transaction speed is high enough, it is almost immediate. the slow part is the confirmation part which will take some time and right now since there is no longer any spam attack it is less than 10 minutes for normal fees.

also people who want to adopt bitcoin don't see this issue at first so that is not the thing that prevents adoption.