What do you expect from the halving in 2016?

[tyz]

What do you expect from the halving next year regarding price development of Bitcoin?

Currently, the price is very stable although there are created around 3k new Bitcoins every day. In my opinion, the price stability results by a constantly increase of demand. When the supply will be halved in 2016, the price should be grow linear if the current demand stays the same.

What do you think?

[spud21]

Until I read the post below I assumed the halving in 2016 would create a rally. Now I'm wondering if the state of the dark markets will have a bigger affect on the price.

First time silk road went down dates back to 23 June 2013. Back then, many claimed that the backlash bitcoin received through major media in addition with the news of one of the biggest bitcoin marketplaces going down had a direct effect in bitcoin's price. The price kept falling from $128 on June 23 to the low of $70 on July 7. Another key point on Silk Road's story was its resurrection. Silk Road 2.0 was opened on November 6 2013 and it seemed that the rally that had begun prior to that sped up its pace after Silk Road's reopening.

Could the recent events have a notable impact on the price?

[dserrano5]

When the supply will be halved in 2016, the price should be grow linear if the current demand stays the same.

What do you think?

The market tends to do the opposite of what the majority thinks. There's a clear consensus that the halving should drive the price up, just as it did the last time. Therefore my personal opinion is that it will either remain lateral or go down.

[AgentofCoin]

What do you expect from the halving next year regarding price development of Bitcoin?

Currently, the price is very stable although there are created around 3k new Bitcoins every day. In my opinion, the price stability results in a constantly increase of demand. When the supply will be halved in 2016, the price should be grow linear if the current demand stays the same.

What do you think?

It will take a few days/weeks for people to catch on, but I believe it will go up and stabilize right away.
I'd say around $475 and will stay within that relative zone. (As long as everything is normal and smooth with the code/protocol.)
But of course, no one knows.

Someone should do a report or study about this with actual economists. I wonder what a group of them would each say.
Would there be conscious? Or divided due to economic principals most of us are unaware of?

[achow101]

I would say the the difficulty and hashrate will significantly decrease as miners begin switching off due to mining becoming even more unprofitable. I think that the price might rise, but not enough that people will continue mining.

[futureofbitcoin]

because a lot of people are expecting an increase from the halving, it's possible that when it doesn't happen, people will start dumping bitcoins because they think it failed or they wanted to make a quick buck but it didn't work so they're on the next thing.


Which would make the price go down, actually.

But this is becoming more a speculation topic than a bitcoin discussion.

[snarlpill]

I'm hoping that there will be less new coins being mined and less miners dumping onto the market, so hoping for a nice price increase and then another stable plateau. I think people dropping off of mining will reduce difficulty and then we'll have waxing & waning cycles of difficulty rising and falling and new miners coming into it. I could see maybe a stable $400-450 Bitcoin with a higher potential of rising at any time. I would be totally fine with that. But I mean really who knows? It's Bitcoin and it is pretty damn revolutionary...  Anything could happen in this experimental new economy. I'm just glad to be on board for the ride.

[grendel25]

because a lot of people are expecting an increase from the halving, it's possible that when it doesn't happen, people will start dumping bitcoins because they think it failed or they wanted to make a quick buck but it didn't work so they're on the next thing.


Which would make the price go down, actually.

But this is becoming more a speculation topic than a bitcoin discussion.

I agree and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this happen.  It's not what I want but it's all too normal for traders to harp on bitcoiners fears and milk those valleys for all their worth. 

I don't think the halving itself is what will drive a change in price.  A big reason for this is because everyone knows exactly how much bitcoin will ever be available and this is a very key point.  Everyone knows that money is a finite resource but with bitcoin, we know exactly how much of it there will be.  What we really don't know is how much people will chase after it.  Will the truly finite aspect of bitcoin ultimately be an impediment or will it prove financially sound?  That's what will really drive the price of bitcoin.  Halving is just a milestone. 

[EternalWingsofGod]

The increased media attention to Bitcoin will likely increase awareness
Whether that will result in a price increase is another question
That said it would make sense to go up if the press did stories on what's happened since the last time they did articles on Bitcoin and did adoption stories on the other hand if they highlight Silk road trials etc than the common users might be passive.
We will see hopefully the Nasdaq Winkeveli ETF, Retailer adoption news is highlighted.

[odolvlobo]

Nothing happened to the price as a result of the last halving. Nothing will happen to the price as a result of the next halving.

A drop in new coins by 1.8k BTC a day is nothing compared to 14 million coins currently in existence and the current 135k daily trade volume. There are so many other factors affecting the price, the drop of 1.8k BTC a day will have little effect on the price (at least in the short term).

[thy]

I believe the halving in abount 60 weeks time will be yet another factor that will press the price of bitcoins up in the future as the supply of new bitcoins will be reduced and bitcoin miners will act as another press upward on the price for them to remain relatively equally profitable on there mining as before the halving.

[melody82]

I think it is impossible to tell for sure.  However if the majority of people believe the price will go up then they will buy accordingly.  If this is the case, then buy orders will drive up prices.  So there will be at least a temporary price increase.  But the higher it goes the harder it will fall as investors sell to cash in at a good price (followed by a nice round of panic selling of course).

I think that is the most likely case, however like I said anything can happen.

[QuestionAuthority]

I expect a large group of individual miners to stop mining and leave that entirely to large farms. That, in turn, will decrease the amount of disposible Bitcoin in the hands of people that frequent retailers instead of just selling mined coin to cover expenses like farms do. More selling to exchanges than spending or buying will decrease the price. It's always been expected that fees will replace the reward as it drops so the system is self correcting. I don't think that's really how it's going to work. Transaction fees can't be pushed up fast enough.

[jeannemadrigal2]

I expect a large group of individual miners to stop mining and leave that entirely to large farms. That, in turn, will decrease the amount of disposible Bitcoin in the hands of people that frequent retailers instead of just selling mined coin to cover expenses like farms do. More selling to exchanges than spending or buying will decrease the price. It's always been expected that fees will replace the reward as it drops so the system is self correcting. I don't think that's really how it's going to work. Transaction fees can't be pushed up fast enough.

That is a really interesting take on the situation.  I had just assumed that it would drive the the price up. 

I thought that most individuals had already stopped mining?  Don't the farms and pools pretty much run the show now, at least for bitcoin?  I think that there will still be mid sized farms, and the new equipment coming out soonish will further decrease the ability of the average person to get into mining.  Assuming it is more expensive then the last generation.  Even if it does drive everything to large farms, it is only speeding up the inevitable.

[Q7]

Well, this is provided that the demand stays at the same level at it is right now. But I do have a feeling a lot of people or rather would I say short-term investors will quickly dump their coin holdings if it goes up to a certain level. That would be the biggest hurdle if we expect bitcoin price to go up further.

You can see that happening to doge right now when a lot people are seizing on the opportunity to cash out fast when it hit their price target.

[Amph]

Nothing happened to the price as a result of the last halving. Nothing will happen to the price as a result of the next halving.

A drop in new coins by 1.8k BTC a day is nothing compared to 14 million coins currentlyin existence and the current 135k daily trade volume. There are so many other factors affecting the price, the drop of 1.8k BTC a day will have little effect on the price (at least in the short term).

how so, the chart clearly tell you that there was a x2 raise for the last halving, it will be the same for this or at worse we remain at current price(but at the expense of having the power cut in half, unless by that time, every farm will run with free electricity), i doubt it will go down, there is no reason for the price to go down at the halving, instead of going down...let's say, this year

[Kyraishi]

Most people expect the price of Bitcoin to go up.
I used to think that as well but I am not so sure now.

[Xialla]

I expect some media coverage, higher demand and higher price is short-term. anyway, after couple of months price will be reverted to previous state as before..

[8up]

I expect exaggerated expectations.

[QuestionAuthority]

I expect a large group of individual miners to stop mining and leave that entirely to large farms. That, in turn, will decrease the amount of disposible Bitcoin in the hands of people that frequent retailers instead of just selling mined coin to cover expenses like farms do. More selling to exchanges than spending or buying will decrease the price. It's always been expected that fees will replace the reward as it drops so the system is self correcting. I don't think that's really how it's going to work. Transaction fees can't be pushed up fast enough.

That is a really interesting take on the situation.  I had just assumed that it would drive the the price up. 

I thought that most individuals had already stopped mining?  Don't the farms and pools pretty much run the show now, at least for bitcoin?  I think that there will still be mid sized farms, and the new equipment coming out soonish will further decrease the ability of the average person to get into mining.  Assuming it is more expensive then the last generation.  Even if it does drive everything to large farms, it is only speeding up the inevitable.

If you look at current hashrate distribution at least 50% of the mining is still performed by small to medium sized pools. These pools are comprised of individual miners "pooling" their mining power to find blocks and split the reward. The individuals need to be rewarded with a large enough share of the found blocks to make continued mining financially desirable.

Bitcoin is designed to be a balanced system where difficulty, reward and fees self adjust to keep everything in equilibrium. In other words, as miners stop mining because it's no longer profitable for them the difficulty drops and increases the profit for the remaining miners, this in turn increases profitability which causes more people to mine. The same is true for the designed reward drop. Bitcoin gets at least some of it value from scarcity as there are only ever supposed to be 21 million of them. The design planned to reward early adopters to an untried risky system with a large reward for continued mining. As the system grows it's believed that less reward will be necessary to keep the system going. As the reward drops it was believed that fees would organically increase to stabilize the profitability of continued mining until eventually only fees are paying for the cost of mining.

I don't happen to believe this system will work as advertised for a multitude of reasons. Most of those reasons are outside the control of the original design team because human behavior is difficult to calculate with a slide rule. In theory it sounds perfect; however, theory and reality seldom meld into a perfect union.