What do you expect from the halving in 2016?

[Amph]

At the risk of beating a dead horse ...

i was not talking about the total supply of course, but about the mined supply, which is the block reward...

Then the demand you are talking about must be the demand for newly mined bitcoins, right? Either way, new bitcoins are indistinguishable from old bitcoins, so it doesn't make sense to talk about only new bitcoins.

fact 1 if the demand rise the price must rise, because the supply(mined supply, aka block reward) will be halved
fact 2 if the demand stay the same, the price must rise, because the reward will be halved
fact 3 if the demand decline the price will probably decline, it depend on how much it will decline, because if the decline will not be greater, than the less absorbtion that the market need to absorb, because there are less coins dumped from the miners, then the price will stay the same

Basically, that is invalid because you are comparing the demand for all bitcoins to the supply of new bitcoins. The supply of new bitcoins is halved, but the supply of bitcoins continues to rise.

so we have two cases where the price will go up and one where it will probably go down, now it is clear like the sun that there are more chances of an increase than a decrease, here no one was talking about a 100% increase scenario, only probability, like always it work

I have a bag containing 99 marbles. There are three colors of marbles in the bag: red, green, and blue. If I pick one at random, what is the probability of it not being red? The correct answer is not 2/3. I'll let you figure out why not.

1 well the old bitcoin are only in the early adopters end, at least the majority, the other are tiny fraction, they won't impact the market at all if dumped, as i said early adopter are also a part of the demand

yes it continue to rise but with an halved rate, so less dumping on the market, this mean that the price will rise as a consequence if the demand stay the same and nothing else will change, this is a fact, i can't see nothing wrong about it...

ok what is the chance of it being green or blue? surely greater than the chances of it being red, you can't deny this come one...this is base probability

[odolvlobo]

ok what is the chance of it being green or blue? surely greater than the chances of it being red, you can't deny this come one...this is base probability

There are 66 red, and 33 green and blue. The chances of being non-red are 1/3 ... less than the chances of being red.

[Amph]

ok what is the chance of it being green or blue? surely greater than the chances of it being red, you can't deny this come one...this is base probability

There are 66 red, and 33 green and blue. The chances of being non-red are 1/3 ... less than the chances of being red.

well but one should assume equality between unknown variables, exactly because they are unknown, so the cases must be done with 33 red 33 blue and 33 green, otherwise it does not make sense, because i might say that there are 49 green 49 blue and 2 red...

[tyz]

Agree, but if you follow the current price stability of Bitcoin and if it goes on this way then we will certainly see a price increase.
Adoption of Bitcoin is becoming better from day to day. Not the growth rates as in 2013 and 2014 but it is still pretty high.

If price doesn't double I'd say we have a serious problem.  It would basically mean adoption is decreaseing as less money needs to come in daily to maintain price.

[odolvlobo]

ok what is the chance of it being green or blue? surely greater than the chances of it being red, you can't deny this come one...this is base probability

There are 66 red, and 33 green and blue. The chances of being non-red are 1/3 ... less than the chances of being red.

well but one should assume equality between unknown variables, exactly because they are unknown, so the cases must be done with 33 red 33 blue and 33 green, otherwise it does not make sense, because i might say that there are 49 green 49 blue and 2 red...

Exactly.

[bank of bits]

I would like to expect that the price of bitcoin will rise with the halving but I'm not so sure. It's hard to say what the price will be tomorrow

[fearlesscat10]

I would like to expect that the price of bitcoin will rise with the halving but I'm not so sure. It's hard to say what the price will be tomorrow

Logically, that would be the expected outcome. However, logic alone does not dictate the price of bitcoin. But I am glad to see the price rising.

[windjc]

if the demand stay the same(very likely) the price must rise to accommodate the fact that there will be less dumping, this is a fact
if the demand rise you will get an amount that is above x2 of current price(because of the 12.5 reward)
if the demand decline you will get the same price as now(because of the 12.5 reward)
33% chance that it will double due to halving, 33% that it will increase above the doubling of the halving, and 33% that it will stay the same

Your assumptions are questionable and the math doesn't work that way because:

1. Supply and demand include all bitcoins, not just newly minted ones.
2. Supply and demand are curves and their intersection determines the price.
3. The halving doesn't decrease the money supply, it decreases the growth of the money supply.
4. Those outcomes not the only possible outcomes and the probabilities are just wild guesses.

Your "logic"  fails to consider the #1 determining factor of BTC price: SPECULATION

[saturn643]

we should expect btc price to go up when the next halving took place. I mean the reward of solving a block is getting less, thus should indirectly reduce supply of new coins to the open market.

[Alley]

Almost at the 1 year countdown!

[Brewins]

Almost at the 1 year countdown!

considering that all the halvings happened before the expected, we already are in the less than 1 year countdown

[Alley]

Almost at the 1 year countdown!

considering that all the halvings happened before the expected, we already are in the less than 1 year countdown

There has only been one halving.

[OrientA]

Almost at the 1 year countdown!

considering that all the halvings happened before the expected, we already are in the less than 1 year countdown

There has only been one halving.

That halving happened before schedule due to increased hash rate. This time will happen again, if the price is higher, thus the has rate.

[bitcoin1992]

Restricted supply, plus increase in demand should make the price appreciate.

[manis]

Restricted supply, plus increase in demand should make the price appreciate.

That is true. How much is the question.

[tyz]

If Bitcoin is getting a part of internet of things applications then the price will explode. Otherwise we will see slow increase over the years, IMHO.

Restricted supply, plus increase in demand should make the price appreciate.

[dothebeats]

If the demands stays the same and correlates with the decrease in the supply, I'd say there will be a price appreciation. But if the price didn't rise, then bitcoin has a lot of catching up to do.

[odolvlobo]

Restricted supply, plus increase in demand should make the price appreciate.

If the demands stays the same and correlates with the decrease in the supply, I'd say there will be a price appreciation. But if the price didn't rise, then bitcoin has a lot of catching up to do.

That is true. How much is the question.

The supply of bitcoins will continue to increase after the halving, albeit at half the rate. There will be no decrease or restriction of supply.

[Meuh6879]

rush day in 2015 ... and what the halving do on this ?
  a lot of good things. 



.
.
.

[koryu]

I bet the mining industry will try to pump the price as good as they can. They will have trouble selling miners when the ROI halves.