Bitcoin Forum

Those who have followed me over the years know that I have made some prescient predictions such as the Bitcoin crash from $1000, even the collapse to $150, and even the precise timing and $320 top of the bounce before the current one. In addition the following silver prediction I made:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits. I had explained my reasoning in the past and the current indicators are:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/precious-metals-march-4th-2016/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/the-eu-going-quietly-into-the-light/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/moodys-warns-of-30-rise-in-commodity-based-company-bankruptcies-in-2016/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/east_asia/moodys-lowers-credit-rating-of-china-to-negative-from-stable/

It is not certain that gold will elect the March 13/14 turning point to begin its collapse to the final bottom of the correction that began 2011. And it is not certain that crypto-currencies will follow.

But the level of irrational pumping of altcoins tells me that we are very near to a 2013 top in crypto-currencies. The irrational speculation is off the charts again and not based in any sense of reality just as was the case for those arguing for Bitcoin to go to $1 million per BTC back in 2013. For example, Ethereum has 0 users, 0 working, scaled apps, no consensus algorithm after $18 million expended. Yet the market cap is heading towards $1 billion.

I am sniffing a big collapse in the making. Not sure if it is this March or later in the summer, but I am warning you.

Take some profits into US dollars. The Euro, Pound, Yuan, and other currencies will also collapse relative to the US dollar due to the carry trades and pegs to the dollars which put the rest of the world bet short against the dollar.

You will need some dry powder to buy when there is blood in the streets.

You've been warned.

well its's halving year, Bitcoin needs a strong support or face a supply-side consolidation. It all depends on the way Ethereum bursts. Slowly over time, or abruptly.

I'm not sure if I've trolled you in the past OP, but I have to say you're most likely right.  I think I don't agree with some of your politics but I agree with your analysis of these shitcoins.  However the timeframe might be a bit longer before the crash.  As they say, the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Seems quite plausible that Bitcoin will implode this coming March 13/14 or shortly thereafter, and when Bitcoin gets a flu, the altcoins go no bid and collapse.


Bear in mind this revelation (click the link in the quote below) which I had predicted as well was the motivation for 51% attack of the Chinese mining cartel which blocked any block size increase:

What other asset classes do you consider safe for those that value diversification? How about real estate? Which countries do you like right now from a macroeconomic standpoint?

Real estate is a tool of governments, you rent it from them ;)

I believe Martin Armstrong has the correct model of what will transpire over the next few years.

His model is basically that the entire world is short the dollar ($10 trillion in international corporate bonds denominated in US dollars, various currencies pegged to the dollar, e.g. the Hong Kong dollar and Chinese Yuan, which enabled China to undercut the world's manufacturing and become a highly imbalanced economy with 65% share being for factories and only a miniscule consumer share, which leaves China with overcapacity and negative profit margins, etc)..

So basically what will happen now is the entire world will go into collapse mode as the US dollar goes higher and the world's wealthy flee into the US stock market as the final safe haven. This will cause the US dollar and US stock market to sky rocket until about 2017.9, after which the US will collapse due to a strong dollar overheating the US consumer economy and collapsing exports. From 2018 to 2020, will be "an over the cliff" collapse for the entire world, since the US economy was the last one still standing up in 2017. Asia will bottom in 2020, because fundamentally Asia has the youth and the growth potential without the retirees that will fight for Socialism. Asia's debt can be cleared out by debt defaults, but the West's debt is cultural and can't be cleared out, because the boomers will fight politically for their retirements and demand the government tax everyone to pay their retirements.

So March 13/14 is the turning point that should see crisis accelerate outside the USA. Just this past week China announced laying off 1.9 million steel workers. The exodus of capital from China going to the USA for safe haven has radically accelerated, some even saying China's reserves will be threatened as this accelerates.


The dead-cat bounce in gold is because the USA Fed did not aggressively raise rates yet, which enabled Europe and China to buy a little bit of time. This also enabled Bitcoin (and the altcoins) to get a bid. But this is a dead-cat bounce and  the final lows for the speculative assets is coming. Again I am reasonably confident of < $850 for gold and < $100 for Bitcoin. I am thinking perhaps $50 for Bitcoin, but it is also possible the block size issue and Blockstream totally fuck up Bitcoin and we sell off to $10. I think perhaps that is extreme, but I don't place it outside the realm of possibility. Again I don't know if this selloff will be in March or later in the summer, but in either case I am reasonably confident it is coming.

So for the interim time the safe parking asset is the US dollar. After gold bottoms, then gold is a go to asset but as a diversification not as a core holding. As for crypto currency, it is too murky to know yet, because currently it is difficult to know whether Bitcoin is heading for total failure (slap yourself, it is possible (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1388887.msg14110914#msg14110914) <--- click this link!).

For a core holding, appears the US stock market once the current correction has bottomed. Expect a double by roughly 2017.9.

For a speculative holding, find the best crypto currency after the washout.

For a core holding after 2017.9, purchase a Bible and pray. Seriously, nothing may survive. Even if you buy real estate in Asia, you may not be able to hang on to it, as the governments are going to cooperate to make sure we white guys pay all our taxes back home (don't expect the European policy of not taxes expatriates to hold). I guess try to diversify and put things in other people's name? Bury gold? (I don't like these ideas)

If you want more information, I suggest reading the Martin Armstrong thread in the Economics forum. There I have defended against the trolls such as sloanf, and I think explained why Martin Armstrong's record is superior to any other analyst on earth. You might be skeptical of his ability to predict the macro economic future by tracking 1000s of financial and other variables along with his $1 billion of historic data in an A.I. computer model that employs multi-dimensional cycle correlation.

Edit: if you think Asia will be a great place to migrate too, read this:

Can you explain more about the strong US dollar overheating the US consumer economy and collapsing exports causing the US to fall?

This is where I'm most confused.

I agree with you on most things, but not really this idea.  On this subject (concerning gold), you're either in or out of the Harry Dent camp.  The idea is that a debt implosion creates a liquidity crunch along with a deflationary collapse causing the price of everything to go down since it's hard to sell things at all if say, 90% of the money supply just disappears from people's wallets.  As a business owner, you're required to slash prices to nothingness to do business at all.

Highly liquid assets such as commonly accepted currency retain value the best in these scenarios, while everything else implodes.  Who is to say debt based fiat would even have value after such a market implosion though?  A vast majority of the money supply simply disappearing might cause a switch to a new currency because the economy would come to a halt, or helicopter money would be required to jump start it, which then causes the value to go to nothing anyway.  Fiat is in no way a safe haven.  Besides short term valuations, Bitcoin and gold are isolated entirely from those issues.

Dent seems to classify gold as a commodity and not a currency, which is why he claims it will implode.  Since the vast majority of gold's value is it's network effect, and not it's industrial value, and it's long history of being used as currency, it seems to currently have far more attributes of a currency than commodity to me.  Gold acted as a currency in the past but failed to work due to lack of granularity and high friction in use, so the money changers exploited this deficiency and gold IOU notes were born to make gold usable in a modern civilization.  Bitcoin solves both the granularity and high friction issues of gold.

The limited network capacity does not make Bitcoin a commodity, it makes it a network where only high value purchases or bundled low value purchases can be made.  The fact that it seems like I can spend Bitcoin in far more places than I can spend gold right now means the market could even value the two objects completely differently and have Bitcoin going up while gold goes down.  When is the last time you saw a Subway restaurant where you can buy a sandwich with gold?  I can do so with Bitcoin already, even in it's infancy.  For the common man in day to day use, gold has next to zero liquidity while Bitcoin acceptance just keeps increasing.  

Due to it's granularity and friction issues, gold is a useless trinket for a modern society.  I see the value prospects of gold vs bitcoin being more opposed to each other than linked.  Meaning buy gold if you think a market collapse will send us back to the dark ages, and buy Bitcoin if you think the shit hitting the fan will not cause the fan blades to decapitate everyone in the room and there will be at least one guy to keep the electricity running afterwards.

Note Harry Dent entirely fucked up and missed the 2007/2008 collapse (which cost me dearly as I had to try to liquidate physical silver during a collapse ... because I had moved back to the Philippines and couldn't leave my physical at the bezerk jhmint ... and at the time I thought US capital controls were imminent due to the collapse ... I was inexperienced and panicked ... but then learned a lot from Martin Armstrong hence). Dent has totally changed his long-term predictions for the future from hyperinflationary to deflationary collapse. I was buying his service back in 2006/7. He fucked me over. The only guy who has always been correct (on the macro economics, not short-term trading) since I started following him in 2010 or so, is MA (Martin Armstrong). I learned my lessons the hard way, by losing all of my former wealth (18,000oz of silver). Not just Harry Dent but also Graham Summers premature prediction of China collapse, silver dealers fucking me over (you see jhmint.com, tulving.com and the silver dealer I dealt with in Manila are all bankrupt!), etc..


The mistake you and many (most) people make is that an implosion is a slow motion train wreck that goes through several stages. The next stage is the international capital escapes the collapsing peripheral economies to the main reserve economy. This is the way it always goes, ditto in the collapse of the Roman and the Athenian empires. We are actually in the midst of the collapse of the US empire, but the paradox is that the core of the empire becomes stronger before the end collapse.

After 2018, the rest of the world will complain about the strong dollar as being the source of the problem, so there will be a monetary reorganization of the reserve currency to enable power sharing with EU and AU (Asian Union). Some say this is the 10 Kings stage which precedes the final one world global currency stage at the end game of Revelations:

http://silverstockreport.com/images/coin_proposal_NWO_270.jpg (http://silverstockreport.com/2009/biblical-political-positions.html)

So yes cash would be a premium, except we have a problem. The governments routinely cancel the fiat cash and thus force cash out-of-hiding. And in the past, you could hop on a boat with gold, but now your gold will be confiscated at transit hubs and checkpoints.

No this is a empire type collapse where nothing survives. The governments are going to hunt down everything. So until 2017.9, the mainstream wealthy will move to the US dollar and US stocks. Then the USA will trap (confiscate?) all that money with capital controls as FATCA comes into full force in 2017. And the global economy will implode. We likely go into war too as a result of this economic frustration.


No it means the Chinese mining cartel owns your Bitcoin. They can block any transaction they want once we go into war. You are not Chinese, they block your transactions. They control 65% of the hashrate and on the next halving the marginal miners go, which means Chinese ASIC miners will gain greater percentage. They can then extort high transaction fees or in any case some big mess, same as what (well intentioned) top-down control did to China's arable land (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1388887.msg14110741#msg14110741).

If you don't think China can't require KYC identification on every Bitcoin transaction, then think again:

https://www.aclu.org/blog/free-future/chinas-nightmarish-citizen-scores-are-warning-americans
http://theantimedia.org/china-just-launched-the-most-frightening-game-ever-and-soon-it-will-be-mandatory/

We don't have a solution for cypto currency yet.

Yea, they could do so if they chose to embrace the famous Larimer "captive audience" fallacy.  The part where Larimer thought he could increase transaction fees to be uncompetitive with other current cryptocurrency offerings to subsidize some ridiculous referral system.  Blocking transactions or other schemes is not a valid strategy from a profit orientated entity.  If the Chinese government conspired to do it, it would just cause a nuclear option fork.  This is just a potential short term problem that could happen, but probably won't, and would not be the death of Bitcoin even if it did.

I do not see China as the future as a lot of people seem to be claming.  I see China as the sick man of Asia that could collapse at any time never to be heard from again.  Hilariously, any negative stereotype you see about Jews, Chinese culture openly embraces them as positive features.  There is no honor or virtue to be seen in China.  The concept of face in China means it's ok to screw over anyone that's not an immediate family member if any financial gain is possible.  The stereotype of Asians being smarter than the west is also obviously false.  Look at any math competition for youth nowadays.  Out of the top 10 contestents, 7 of them will be Chinese, but they're always the bottom 7, while the top 3 are autistic white guys every time who are operating on another level the Chinese contestents can't even comprehend.

Unfortunately for Marxists, the death of the west, which is just a metaphor for the white race extending from ancient Greek civilization, has been slightly exaggerated.  We did invent electricity, the car, the airplane, the transistor, the internet, and just about everything else on earth after all.

We can't fork, because China has more hashrate than we do.

Even if we change the hash algorithm (and you will never get political agreement on this), China can produce new ASICs faster than we can. And they have the Three Gorges Dam for free electricity and an iron grip control over the collective to charge the costs to.

(Btw, I think I have a solution to this)

The mistake you make is they can simply sell out to the USA and the EU to require KYC on every transaction and only block the transactions that have a tax lien from the G20 (or whatever). This will be capital controls fuck fest.

The big profit for China is on being part of the planned global 666 Technocracy (while pretending to be an adversary ... the global elite cooperate while creating pretend wars between nations).

You are not seeing the Big Picture. This is a $200 trillion gambit.

What if the Fed doesn't raise rates in March, in 2016?

I haven't been following this closely, but it seems I remember that everyone thought they would raise by now, then the Fed backed off (and made some mention of negative interest rates, or perhaps that was Larry Summers again) because Europe and China were complaining (EU bonds spreads were starting to spread apart and China was seeing an exodus stampede of capital).

Remember market expectations drive markets, not fundamentals. It is the loss of CONFIDENCE that breaks markets, not fundamentals. So it seems the exhale from that unexpected delay has pretty much run its course and by March 13/14, the renewed reality of Europe and China's collapse will begin to drive expectations again.

Again I am not following this very closely and perhaps it would be better to ask Martin Armstrong directly.

The USA imports a lot, so a strong dollar will be an infusion in the consumer's arm because imported products (including oil) will be cheaper. So this will be more money that can be spent on for example a renewed subprime real estate bubble (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg14092893#msg14092893).

So this will artificially inflate the consumption/debt side of the economy which is already disproportionate, then it will shrink the export sector due to the strong dollar (costs more for other nations to import) and the collapsing demand of other nations.

So the economy goes into a terminal bubble, that once it loses momentum can't sustain itself and collapses. Realize this stampede into the US dollar (which eventually decelerates) will create a momentum for people to take on new debt in the USA. It will be rapid and very short lived boom right before the horrific Minsky Moment collapse. Note this is exactly what happened in the booming 1920s (right before the 1929 collapse), as all of Europe's gold was escaping to the USA.

The markets have a way of head faking people who not paying attention to capital flows.

i'm also in agreement, the increase was too fast, and when there is an increase like that you can almost be sure about a possible strong decrease as well
not so sure about this month though, i think we can see a collapse before the bitcoin halving, or when the summer begin, for the time being we have at least another 1-2 months of profit

In the case of Ethereum (not saying you bought it), that isn't 'profit' but rather a zero-sum game of stealing from our fellow speculators with the insiders taking the lion's share of the cash off the table all during the pump.

When the music stops playing, there is going to be 1 chair for a 1000 speculators to fight over. The other 999 chairs left the building and are in the whale's BTC accounts.

Agree we got at least 2 months of BTC's rising and leading the crypto pump ahead of us.. sure it'll eventually top out and die.. just be sure to be ready to sell everything when the time comes.

In the case of altcoins which go into cardiac arrest when Bitcoin dumps, how does one get ready to fight with 1000 speculators over 1 remaining chair?

Seems to me it is Russian roulette. You pick an exit price and hope you get out.

There is no fundamental value in Ethereum, MaidSafe, Factom, StorJ. I analyzed them all, and they are all so flawed that they can't be used for anything. They have 0 usership, thus it is purely P&D. No demand for the coins otherwise.

Monero has some fundamental value. It has usership (not a lot but it has). Its hash function is also one of the least likely to be put on an ASIC of all those that are currently released (I think mine is better, but it is not released). Its anonymity isn't perfect, but it is the best that exists at least until Zcash is a reality (and capital controls are coming). That doesn't mean I think it won't sell off when other alts do, but it should have some firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts.

---

Markets normally do what majority NOT expect, its already priced in.

i was taslking about 1-2 months of profit for miners, it is more profitable than mining bitcoin directly, and it will continue to be profitable for the moment
i don't care about trading, i don't like to buy shitcoin, no matter what they offer, the only coin for me is bitcoin

It seems to me the halving is bullish because less coins being dumped on the market by miners.

I think it is the scalecolypse (realization that Bitcoin is owned by the Chinese mining cartel and nothing can be done about it) combined with general contagion liquidations that may hit Bitcoin. The majority doesn't know the truth about these yet and/or still in delusion about there being some solution on the horizon. You go ask how many people realize that Chinese have already 51% attacked Bitcoin.

I don't think most people reading this understand the thread and are just babbling about some random altcoin.  He's claiming the liquidity crisis created by deflationary collapse will lower the price of cryptocurrency.  This is the Harry Dent viewpoint on gold.  He views gold as a commodity and says the price will go down, but the price of gold is currently not going down, it's going up.  

The market is pricing gold as a currency over commodity at the moment.  Bitcoin is even more of a currency than commodity in comparison to gold, so in a liquidity crisis, as long as Bitcoin is still easily spendable, there's really no reason for it to go down, it could just as easily skyrocket as people pile into it to get out of electronic based fiat that will instantly disappear (versus paper based fiat that's harder to instantly vaporize in a collapse).

I don't think it was a very good idea to make this thread because even if you think you can objectively define gold and Bitcoin as currencies or commodities, markets do not have objective rationality and could define them the opposite way.  If we're talking only fundamentals here, I'd still say both Bitcoin and gold are more currencies than commodities.  I therefore have no anxiety holding Bitcoin or gold during a deflationary collapse.

Good luck buying physical < $1k. The paper promises can go to $0.

greater fool theory;the price of an object is determined not by its intrinsic value, but rather by irrational beliefs and expectations of market participants.

r0ach seriously gold is going to crash. Martin Armstrong is never wrong about these matters. So many people got pissed off at him when he was stating gold would drop to $1050 when it was at the $1600+ level. This is dead-cat bounce for people who believe the lie that gold is special. Gold is mostly a useless relic nowadays.

As MA says, gold will only come alive as a hedge against government. That is its true role (although greatly diminished now because you can't spend it any where and can't carry across a border or checkpoint and cash is being phased out so it won't be possible to sell it anonymously in blackmarkets in the future).

Since the majority of mainstream wealthly investors don't yet fear the total collapse of government, thus gold has not yet reached that moment. Right now we are still waiting for the capitulation bottom where the tinfoil hats finally get their delusion busted.

Ditto Bitcoin. Another delusion.

Well I am saying the current nosebleed pump of ETH and the rise of entirely useless altcoins such as Factom and MaidSafe is an indication of the froth in the markets and so the contagion coming is going to shake the tree and a 1000 speculators are going to try stampede out the door and fight over 1 chair.

And the overshoot works in both directions up and down. Right now nobody understands that Ethereum, MaidSafe, Factom are broken designs that can't function. That reality will eventually hit and perhaps coincident with a general market and Bitcoin liquidity contagion.

You are correct to imply that I can't know precisely the timing.

And this is another reason holding Bitcoin will probably be extremely profitable.  It's much easier to buy and sell Bitcoin than gold.  The second any type of financial collapse happens that makes people want gold for whatever reason, the only locally available gold will be a tiny amount at some pawn shop.  If you have $100k in the bank account and know the next day it's either going to have capital controls or vaporize to 0, tons of cash is going to be flowing into Bitcoin rather than risk buying paper gold or trying to find some pawn shop gold that isn't there.


Alts that do not act as currencies can easily collapse during deflation because they would then fall under the commodity or services side of the scale.  This is why you can't compare Factom and Eth with Bitcoin in an economic forecast.  I can walk down the street and use Bitcoin as a currency to buy food already.  I can't even do that with gold!  Bitcoin is a currency not a commodity.  You can't even say that alts would crash either because they might come along for the ride even while having no actual use just like the current environment that already exists.

Physical gold is for collectors. And maybe for an extreme insurance plan. It is not a liquid investment any more (or only in certain venues and the government can shut these dealers down). And the spreads are horrendous (especially if you travel... try selling those overpriced coins in the Philippines, they will give you 5% below melt spot if they will even buy them and never cash on the spot, maybe you get your cash after 30 - 90 days).

Maybe a bag of USA silver dimes might end up being spendable but I doubt it.

Yeah Bitcoin is more accessible, but it is also going to be a fiat currency controlled by China. Once the masses are using it, they won't care if China is debasing it with their mining cartel. I hope we will have moved on from Bitcoin to something better by then.

I am not interested in profit with Bitcoin. Profit is from altcoins. Or software development. Bitcoin is for liquidity and for avoiding the banks, but now I am losing trust in Bitcoin's loss of decentralization.

r0ach, you may not agree? But one possibility is we will see a selloff of Bitcoin for liquidity reasons but that might also coincide with disillusionment by the hardmoney technophile geeks who originally ideologically believed in Bitcoin. So maybe we get a selloff, to let the ideologues out and then the next ramp will be the rollout to the masses. Or Bitcoin just fails in a heap of centralized failures.

It is very murky, because I don't know how all the various players are really playing this behind the scenes (are they throwing in the towel on decentralization and joining the China oligarchy?), e.g. Blockstream, Coinbase, etc..

Any thoughts?

It will be like hiroshima i think, there is better things out there.

tulip bulbs have very interesting characteristics. so do two or three coins.

so many expressions of emotional security i have not read on here for several hours. you will die, but before then try to enjoy your time on this small planet.

Do you mean altcoins? Like what? Litecoin? Dogecoin? Monero? Of those, afaik only Monero doesn't have a mining algorithm that isn't currently mineable with ASICs.

Please don't tell me you fell for the hype of Ethereum, MaidSafe, Factom, etc..


And then the South Seas bubble (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company#Inflating_the_share_price) collapsed. Tulip bulbs have the attribute that they aren't worth 1000x their cost of manufacture.

i find the characteristics of the tulip bulb's life cycle very interesting. setting aside the SS bubble for just a moment, it fascinates me how the biology of a flower's reproduction process (and a virus) helped to form the first futures market. it's so interesting. the financial speculation part of the story is of less interest.

I feel for DC and CLAM, if wanted it can be done right :). There is not much it can be done to btc by a small community but im sure something can be done for them.

Agreed. Whatever is said on BCT expect something COMPLETELY DIFFERENT to happen. I just love the way people on this board predict events with such authority only to watch their predictions fail miserably (and still be bullish about it!).

WARNING: crypto-currencies are   Bitcoin is very likely going to experience a crash soon

FTFY

Another thread from you predicting doom?

I am still waiting for my 'free money' from your last bitcoin will crash thread. The price crashed upwards and doubled instead!  ???

Which is what I predicted it could do. In May 2015, I stated it would rise over the summer to $320, then decline. Which is what it did. That eventually it would crash below $150, but that it could also rise to the $450 area interim. Go review klee's PnF thread in Economics -> Speculation again asshurl. I also stated I would be stopped out at $380 on a short position, but BTC declined into the mid-$200s and meandered, so I would obviously have exited my short due to the meandering. Unfortunately I was talked out of shorting it on Bitfinex by one of my regular private message cohorts, who felt I couldn't rely on Bitfinex to be liquid or not cheat. Oh well.

And yes my < $150 prediction remains.

Buy signal

I think it also depends on what crypto currencies people are involved in. Some are community based coins which have a strong community support, others have good tech devs and others are mainly pump and dumps so here we have a variety to choose from. We are talking about hundreds of different coins representing all kinds of ideas and people, so where some might fair badly, others may rise to some prominence, depending on their developers and followers.

Overconfidence. Sell signal.

lol you called it, ethereum is dropping

That might be a head fake:


Note every time I have spilled more beans on how Ethereum can't scale, as I did again today (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1361602.msg14110584#msg14110584), the price declines. When I go away for 2 days, the price skyrockets.

 :D :D :D

WOW....

all these prediction would be fit perfectly in augur... LOL 

Except that augur is nonsense, because the market is not an accurate prediction paradigm. The market speaks, but after the fact.

I could sell you idiots turds wrapped in a Snicker's bar wrapper and you'd buy it, take it home proudly, and put in your ref for safe storage without ever opening to verify it. Then later when your frig smells like shit, you go searching for some poo and never open the Snicker.

augur more like decentralized betting market,  they want us to bet on everything.  if you look at it that way, it actually make sense.

True. But we can already do that. What augur is trying to do is figure out how to record of the outcomes decentralized. But the problem is that violates the Nash equilibrium (since users have game theories to profit on reporting different outcomes). I don't expect Augur to function decentralized and expect it to diverge into chaotic disorder unless they centralize control of the recording of the outcomes (in which case they've accomplished nothing). Bitshares is centralized which enables using a price feed for the BitUSD algorithm (https://bitshares.org/technology/price-stable-cryptocurrencies/).

There is a lot of bullshit floating around in this forum.

Will a truly anonymous coin arise to save us before then? I've been keeping my eye on that situation for a long time and I've read your comments about no alt-coins (xmr, dash, etc) being truly anonymous (yet). I've always thought that whatever coin becomes the the choice of the black markets for it's anonymity, will be HUGE.

The controlled interest rate set by the fed means nothing compared to the amount of debt they can choose to monetize with the click of a button.

The fed can raise interest rates and still buy up every single junk bond on the planet. Then what do you think that all these recapitalized governments, businesses, and people will do with their quadrillions of freshly loaned US fiat?

They can offer Puerto Rico a zillion dollar loan, and how fast do you think it will take them to re-make millionaires of their public servants ? and that's after they make their existing bondholders whole.

So you better watch your hole here

Don't get schlonged like Hillary.

The fed funds rate is not the indicator, it's the head fake here.

That's why NIRP is not automatically increasing liquidity in the areas where it is being rolled out.  Deliquient debtors don't care what their interest rate is. They only care weather or not their loan was approved, and just because the interest rate may be zero, does not mean that you are approved for any amount.  So you see, credit restriction is the key to deflation.  That is why deflation can always be avoided if the fed chooses to increase its balance sheet and create a new loan.  Trust me, you don't want to see their balance sheet.

Truse me, I've declared bankruptcy more times than you.

All Leman Bros needed was a loan (at any interest rate) and their bankruptcy (and subsequent asset deflation) would have been avoided

I understand that btc and other ALT-coins are in danger in the upcoming years however I do not believe that all coins will die off. I believe we are on the brink of a financial war between countries using altcoins. I forsee that every shit coin will be forgotten. coins will no longer be allowed to be created. and current coins will be under a tight microscope by various governments to make sure nothing shady or dangerous is happening. but I believe the few coins that are deemed secure and safe to use will become HUGE. quite possibly as big as BTC in its peak. and will be utilized by various companies. regardless of what happens to cryptocurrency I believe that blockchain technology will revolutionize the future of banking, communications, even transportation and GPS. it is all a matter of how we work with our coins now that will determine if they will exist in a year.

We are going higher in time. Just keep buying coins and holding them.

Debt serviceability determines how many loans can be made. The Minsky Moment comes when for each new unit of debt that is created, negative units of cash flow are deducted from the economy. This is called the negative marginal utility of debt threshold.

Please don't slobber on my thread again with your tinfoil hat atrophied brain stem.

If such an overt coin can stand up to the G20 cooperation and China's ASIC mining dominance of any coin they wish to dominate. I think impossible. However see the recent stand by Apple and enjoined by other tech giants against the NSA.

Rather I think the black market coin will be the microtransaction coin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1049048.msg14110830#msg14110830). That is the direction I am headed.

Ethereum is just another alt-coin pump and dump like all of the rest. And, let's be clear, on hype alone it will make a lot of people very rich; in the short term.
In the long term people will see that it was a hype fueled bubble that solves no particular problem and will stand on the wreckage of Mastercoin, mooncoin, maxcoin, and unobtanium.

It will make most of the speculators very poor by definition of a P&D.

Again per the theory of a link of crash of crypto with an upcoming crash in gold:

I expect the same pattern in gold, but from the next low (= double bottom) I expect a very strong long run. Chinese (again!) are heavily buying physical gold - more than they report. On the other hand you see Monster paper trading (shoting) at CME - to get the physical cheap. You can imagine what will happen once that negative bubble go bust.

Gold is still save heaven for the non-cryptos.

 

What are Armstorngs views on real estate in the short and medium term?

OP, are you shorting bitcoins? If your predictions are correct you can make a killing this year. I kinda hope BTC would stabilize and people should stop spreading FUD every year. Any whales here? Your thoughts on this?

If Bitcoin crashed for a halving, the project would basically be dead in the water forever.  There is far too much money invested in the Bitcoin ecosystem where people would never allow that to happen.  Not sure how Anonymint doesn't realize Bitcoin will be pumped for it.  The price won't even be allowed to remain flat.  What's more likely to happen?  A bunch of greedy miners who have invested millions turn off their miners if the price doesn't increase, or they simply stop selling mined coins temporarily and also manipulate the market upward to continue mining at profit. 

The price will either go up organically or it will be manipulated in that direction.  There is no other way around it.  The entirity of China is probably colluding to do so in cartel fashion already.  The only way the price could crash is with some crazy deflationary death spiral in the wider economy, but things like home values, cars, etc would also be crashing in price, and we are simply not experiencing that right now.

The crashing is surely related to the centralization / scaling issues we see all coming to the surface and also with the hyped expectations with some new cryptos that will fall on all of our feet soon.

Since Anonymint posted the OP half of the alts reached a new ATH and the other half went from sleeper to rising :D

10/10

I also fully agree with your post, no way Bitcoin won't rise with the amount of exposure it got in the recent months.

A lot of new money has found its way into cryptos in the last few weeks.

The problem for Bitcoin though is that a lot of the investment into the network and supporting infrastructure can be repurposed fairly easily to work with other crypto currencies.

If the devs and all the other movers and shakers continue to plod along thinking they are "too big to fail", they are in for a rude surprise. There is no government backing, and the corporate backing can quickly flow to a new blockchain.

So your main source is this smoke seller. A magician of economic prediction.

With his magic sphere  he already knows what will happen to the price of gold in the next days ,and he will tell you this TOP SECRET information in a few pages(edit : and a video!!) for only $ 500!

But you have to hurry! It is going to happen soon! Let's buy my 30 pages  guide for Only 500 dollar!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/2016-gold-report-goes-out-today/


Dear TPTB_need_war you look like an intelligent person, do not to give money to this scammer.

The world is "short" on dollar?I have a super computer with a super algoritm and i can proove it?

C'mon is like the scientology of trading. AND THIS IS NOT A VALID SOURCE. IS A PRODUCT SCHEME NAMED AMSTRONG ECONOMICS.

WE HAVE SUPER COMPUTERS!!AHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA


tries to compare with a real one:

http://moslereconomics.com/


BTW this thread is really interesting.

Who needs Armstrong when I've posted exactly when the last two Bitcoin pumps would occur and when the drop would occur and where it would go:

Rise #1 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1200114.0

Rise #1 dump forecast:  http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg13552132#msg13552132

Rise #2 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg13866938#msg13866938

^The summary of that is, I went all in at $230, sold at $44x, went all in again at $375.

Or you can follow the famous MatTheCat reverse indicator and just do the opposite of whatever he does:

I wish people would stop crying FUD (to defend bad behavior year after year)

And "Crash"

It's been dying a slow and continues death for a long looooong time now.
How many YEARS have i been here predicting it to people who even deny it's happening ?

Take Polo mod's who called me a FUDster when i said "Altcoins were dying off over time"
I was told i was FUD'ing by Polo mod's and then told i was a liar making up false comments
then not long after that i got banned.

They are liars.
They are deceitful.
They are protecting their "groomed" victims.

I said the user base across crypto has been decimated and shrunk by a large amount last 2 years or so..
Since the great late 2013 frenzy.. i was told this is pure lies and that Polo's user base had been an all-time high
and they are getting more new users now than when they did when i visited them in early 2014'ish
which i might add back then the chat box scrolled by at mach 2 back then..
It was pretty much impossible to get a comment seen by anyone it scrolled up & away so fast.
And many of you know that because they were there with me !
Apparently that didn't happen.. must have been a dream huh ?
I told the Polo mod this part.. and i said look around you can go almost all night here with not 1 comment.
it wasn't like that !

I said the Altcoin SCENE as a whole.. Polo plays a small part of.
Whether that dumb fuck scammy idiot Polo mod retard wants to spout off crazy unprovable claims is another matter.
The fact is crypto died off hard..

My town had North America's 2nd ATM for BTC in Kelowna (first being Vancouver CAN)
It was closed loooooooong ago boys & girls.

Try spending your "denial coins" at the store and see what it buys you..

PS:
Poloniex your a sack of scammy ass bullshit.. fucking idiots.
You stupid losers lost my respect 1,000x over again.. eat a bag of dicks.
And i can't want until you take your turn to cry "I was hacked" i will laugh my ass off ROFL

This kind of reminds me of when Bitcoin prices sharply rose at the end of 2013, those events were also followed by a massive crash.
I would not be too surprised if that happened again this year, but it's still a bit too soon I think.

If you look at Ethereum, there is still way too much buy support and no-one has really started dumping their coins yet, but this could change any time soon.

What about the possibility of PoS coins such as BlackCoin or PeerCoin that have no need to be mined, thus they cannot be controlled by mining concerns?

they can be controlled by having many coins and staking easy money, there are possible attack even with pos coin, search for it on google, you just need a certain amount to do it

I said they are highly correlated if a smoothing filter is applied. Gold does a dead-cat pump, then BTC does, repeat. And the overall trend of the two is down since start of 2014 (gold's decent started 2011 but BTC hadn't yet matured and was in the early adopter phase).

The mistake of the above chart is the same reason that Armstrong's computer can detect patterns that humans miss. The above chart only considers one-dimension for the time axis. Whereas, my explanation has 2 dimensions for the time-axis.

Any chance you can post a link to a decent chart with filter?

The mathematical point I am making is that the correlation can be quite strong when the time axis of gold or BTC is shifted such that they align better. Just slide gold along the time axis, and you see the correlation is much stronger. This sliding variable is another dimension. Armstrong's computer model does this automatically and not just over 2 dimensions, but unbounded dimensional search which is why it requires a supercomputer.

If two things are correlated by only a constant time-shifted, then they are correlated. If something always goes up with the other goes down, that is correlated and if the former always goes down again after going up thus predicting that the other will go up after it goes down. Then the longer-term downtrend since 2014 is dominant and mutually correlated.

March 14 is also Pi day  ::)

Totally Agree, a Mass Altcoin Extinction Event is on the Horizon.

Thanks for the info about the chat box decline in Poloniex.

Poloniex (Like Crapsty before them) are changing their fee structure to favor trading for the weathly, it was ~6 months after that crapsty took its last breath.

Starts March 20th, 2016
https://poloniex.com/fees/


I don't know why but it seems like every time these exchanges get into trouble behind the scenes, they start changing their fee structure.
Could just be a coincidence , but a friendly reminder on Poloniex .

Never Leave more coins sitting on an exchange than what you are willing to Lose!!!

Cryptsy changed their Fee structure to favor traders and in less than 6 months they were done , and now Poloniex is doing something similar.   :P
Starting the 6 month timer.
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160920T0001&p0=412&msg=Poloniex+Exchange+Still+Open+or+Forever+Closed!!!&font=cursive (http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160920T0001&p0=412&msg=Poloniex+Exchange+Still+Open+or+Forever+Closed!!!&font=cursive)

 8)

So basically you're saying that you predicted it could go UP or DOWN! ::)
Then you really haven't predicted anything!

Everyone already knows this... :P

You disingenuous trolls will never stop twisting what I wrote into something I didn't write.

I predicted a month or in advance the precise price $320 and timing "summer" that the price would rise and peak at, and then decline from. That sort of exact prediction provides an opportunity to go long and then short, profiting in both directions.

And in fact, there are some people in this forum who can vouch that they shorted at $320 based on my recommendation and they made money on it. I know who they are.

Everything this guy says is more irrational speculation.  ::)

This guy is the ultimate troll, like the guy trying to pretend he is the creator of Bitcoin.

1 sentence long spamming while crying Troll again ?

Do you "discuss" altcoins or only post ETH spam and cry troll ?

If you can not carry on an intelligent conversation maybe leave it up to those of us that can.

or just post more cat pictures and cheerlead for ETH and cry troll some more.
After all your pretty damn good at it..

Why do you always sound like you're having a meltdown?

I believe we should all give TPTB some heat regarding his prediciton of double digits BTC in 2016.

I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits.

This is laughable.

I have said the bottom may not be in yet for gold and Bitcoin.

The timing was originally 2016, but what has changed is that the US Fed decided to delay raising interest rates to try to help Europe. And then the elite hatched this plan to have a BREXIT vote so as to reaffirm the U.K.'s commitment to the EU. This BREXIT victory for the EU, coupled with the delay in raising interest rates, is causing the confidence to swing temporarily back to the Euro (away from the dollar) and is giving a deadcat bounce to speculation markets (which require general liquidity because they are all about harvesting the funds of stoopid greater fool n00bs).

But this delay is causing pension plans to go bankrupt and is causing all the excesses of debt to move well above nosebleed levels:

---

---

So what we have is a massive Minsky Moment being tightly wound like a spring fully compressed that is going to explode once the Euro peaks (perhaps as high as 1.24). We are waiting for the BREXIT to drive this counter-trend, deadcat rally to its extreme.

Then upon the election of Trump in November, coinciding with that global liquidity contagion Minsky Moment as interest rates start to move and the dollar starts gaining again, then roughly Q1 2017 (but anytime after BREXIT peak is still possible in later 2016), we are going to see a massive liquidity crunch where everyone will pile on short and overshoot to the bottom on every asset except US dollars. Trump will drive a desire to hold dollars as he will threaten trade and currency wars against China.

Trump will win because he will move more to the center of right after he secures the Republican nomination. He will become nicer and people will see him in a more positive light. And he will destroy Hellary's reputation with his skilled way of attacking. He had to appeal to the hard right in order to stop the entrenched power players in the Republican party from stealing the nomination from him. He might even appoint Bernie Sanders as Vice President.

Thus the selloff of gold and Bitcoin as well (and altcoins to near 0), but this will be very brief V bottom just like in 2008/2009, then the world's capital will stampede into the dollar, dollar denominated assets such as US stock markets and trophy real estate, and also gold and CC will swing back to bullish mode with the final bottom finally reached.

The latest essay from Armstrong is very important:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/trading-volumes-declines-as-hoarding-rises-due-to-uncertainty/


Edit note Trump is very pro-NSA and even supports laws breaking encryption. He appointed Doug Christie who is very totalitarian about NSA (go back and listen to the early Republican debates). I could see Trump potentially becoming very anti-Bitcoin especially with the mining centralization in China. However if Bitcoin is really the House of Morgan's baby, then Trump will be obliged to not attack Bitcoin.

---

Correct. Agreed. But remember that comes after the V bottom liquidity crunch. A liquidity crunch is not a safe haven move. It is a liquidity survival carry trade reversal on auto-pilot. Human decisions are not in play.


Exactly because their leveraged obligations and margin calls are in cash. And that is not Bitcoin "cash".


Sorry you are wrong.

I was wrong and here is my record:

Great call on Trump.  I too called it way early, summer of 2015. 

I don't think many people here realize how lucky they are to have a guy like you posting this stuff for free.

Bitcoin didn't collapse below $150 like you expected but it could have, I too expected a possible drop to around $75. 

Segwit has stalled so I expect some big chaos to ensue soon so Bitcoin just may get that massive crash we both expected, after-all. 

Cheers!

You heard it here first. 75-150$ bitcoins!

 :D

It is a fact that I said to buy Monero before the blast off. My other criticisms of Monero were orthogonal to any analysis of the chart pattern. Please don't blame your conflation on me. That is your lack of mental acuity.


There were numerous other posts of mine where I made the same recommendation about Monero at around that time.

You are doing a good "pull the wool over the eyes" of deflecting everyone's attention away for your absolute stupidity to sell BTC recently in the $600s and buy silver at inflated prices that have now crashed, even I was imploring you to not do so and you were so boastfully being the condescending r0ach that you are.

The prediction in gold is coming true. The $150 in Bitcoin did happen. And that has already been explained numerous times, yet you refuse to acknowledge it. It was a theory that BTC might track gold down, and I did state that it was theory of correlation that might not be true.

The op is from march 2016.

When did we hit 150$ this year? Did i miss something?

Dear OP, with such a prescient mind and foresight aplenty, surely your net worth must be vast !

Given long enough time everything will crash so he semi correct. depends how you define soon.

Does that have any relevance to whether all of my published predictions except one were correct? And the one that was incorrect, I stated upfront that it was only a theory and might not be correct.

Does your comment have some relevance to the size of your penis and your ego? (How dare anyone claim to be correct most of the time, when in fact they are) If not, what is the relevance?

I think you lack the mental acuity to entertain all the factors that go between correct predictions and choosing to be a speculator. I choose to be a programmer and developer (and to have the life experiences of roaming the world including a long stint in the backwater country of the Philippines). A man can be a jack of all trades and expert of none, or can choose to prioritize what he thinks is the most important focus of his time and expertise.

Attacking someone for their choices or priorities as a means of belittling their successes, so as to further your own ego, is not very respectful. If you don't respect others, how can you expect them to respect you.

Well you should'a said so earlier and i wouldn't have paid any attention to your predictions at all. Programmers are notoriously myopic.

/jk

His understanding of economics is at least graduate level.  I'm really impressed with this guy on many levels.

And you're an idiot.  Just an FYI.  :)

Edit:  missed the jk part.  Ok, you're not an idiot.  Carry on.

Didn't expect to get a such a quick  response from a legend to such an obvious troll !
You must  be a programmer too ~LOL~

/jk

Cypherpunk OG!  That's me, I'm a hacker!  ;D

Whats the thought on a cryptocurrency with half of its value connected to actuall forests?

We all know that you have been failing to do so in the past couple of years, even though I am here only since the beginning of this year. Moreover, I have attended financial market course with proeminent professor, which we describe here as "whale", "smart money", call them whatever you want. No one of them was able, or even tried to make us believe, that they were able to predict the market. No one can do so, and picking up you accurate information to try to make us believe so, is an undergraduate text book case, "the newsletter fallacy" (that I won't explain here), and you will fail to catch the intention of important people doing so.

I wonder how more years will you throw away before opening your eyes to the harsh reality.

What do you guys think about 2018?  I'm interested in knowing if it's worth it to hold on to BTC or sell while it's still around $4k

The OP is dated March 2016.

He must be really regretting that post.

The post is just proof that people cannot predict the future when it comes to cryptocurrency.

As the OP stats at his time of writing Ethereum had no users etc and was valued at almost a billion dollars, he thought it would crash and now its worth almost 30 billion with a tremendous user base.

It just shows that no one can predict this market :) and that's highly profitable, but also highly dangerous if there is a crash!

This a funny prediction. I wonder what must he be feeling right now with this prediction. So until now even geniuses still cannot predict the destruction of bitcoin.