Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

On this subject, you're either in or out of the Harry Dent camp.

Note Harry Dent entirely fucked up and missed the 2007/2008 collapse (which cost me dearly as I had to try to liquidate physical silver during a collapse ... because I had moved back to the Philippines and couldn't leave my physical at the bezerk jhmint ... and at the time I thought US capital controls were imminent due to the collapse ... I was inexperienced and panicked ... but then learned a lot from Martin Armstrong hence). Dent has totally changed his long-term predictions for the future from hyperinflationary to deflationary collapse. I was buying his service back in 2006/7. He fucked me over. The only guy who has always been correct (on the macro economics, not short-term trading) since I started following him in 2010 or so, is MA (Martin Armstrong). I learned my lessons the hard way, by losing all of my former wealth (18,000oz of silver). Not just Harry Dent but also Graham Summers premature prediction of China collapse, silver dealers fucking me over (you see jhmint.com, tulving.com and the silver dealer I dealt with in Manila are all bankrupt!), etc..

Highly liquid assets such as commonly accepted currency retain value the best in these scenarios, while everything else implodes.  Who is to say debt based fiat would even have value after such a market implosion though?  A vast majority of the money supply simply disappearing might cause a switch to a new currency because the economy would come to a halt, or helicopter money would be required to jump start it, which then causes the value to go to nothing anyway.  Fiat is in no way a safe haven.  Besides short term valuations, Bitcoin and gold are isolated entirely from that contagion.

The mistake you and many (most) people make is that an implosion is a slow motion train wreck that goes through several stages. The next stage is the international capital escapes the collapsing peripheral economies to the main reserve economy. This is the way it always goes, ditto in the collapse of the Roman and the Athenian empires. We are actually in the midst of the collapse of the US empire, but the paradox is that the core of the empire becomes stronger before the end collapse.

After 2018, the rest of the world will complain about the strong dollar as being the source of the problem, so there will be a monetary reorganization of the reserve currency to enable power sharing with EU and AU (Asian Union). Some say this is the 10 Kings stage which precedes the final one world global currency stage at the end game of Revelations:



So yes cash would be a premium, except we have a problem. The governments routinely cancel the fiat cash and thus force cash out-of-hiding. And in the past, you could hop on a boat with gold, but now your gold will be confiscated at transit hubs and checkpoints.

No this is a empire type collapse where nothing survives. The governments are going to hunt down everything. So until 2017.9, the mainstream wealthy will move to the US dollar and US stocks. Then the USA will trap (confiscate?) all that money with capital controls as FATCA comes into full force in 2017. And the global economy will implode. We likely go into war too as a result of this economic frustration.

The limited network capacity does not make Bitcoin a commodity, it makes it a network where only high value purchases or bundled low value purchases can be made.

No it means the Chinese mining cartel owns your Bitcoin. They can block any transaction they want once we go into war. You are not Chinese, they block your transactions. They control 65% of the hashrate and on the next halving the marginal miners go, which means Chinese ASIC miners will gain greater percentage. They can then extort high transaction fees or in any case some big mess, same as what (well intentioned) top-down control did to China's arable land.

If you don't think China can't require KYC identification on every Bitcoin transaction, then think again:

https://www.aclu.org/blog/free-future/chinas-nightmarish-citizen-scores-are-warning-americans
http://theantimedia.org/china-just-launched-the-most-frightening-game-ever-and-soon-it-will-be-mandatory/

We don't have a solution for cypto currency yet.

Can you explain more about the strong US dollar overheating the US consumer economy and collapsing exports causing the US to fall?

This is where I'm most confused.

The USA imports a lot, so a strong dollar will be an infusion in the consumer's arm because imported products (including oil) will be cheaper. So this will be more money that can be spent on for example a renewed subprime real estate bubble.

So this will artificially inflate the consumption/debt side of the economy which is already disproportionate, then it will shrink the export sector due to the strong dollar (costs more for other nations to import) and the collapsing demand of other nations.

So the economy goes into a terminal bubble, that once it loses momentum can't sustain itself and collapses. Realize this stampede into the US dollar (which eventually decelerates) will create a momentum for people to take on new debt in the USA. It will be rapid and very short lived boom right before the horrific Minsky Moment collapse. Note this is exactly what happened in the booming 1920s (right before the 1929 collapse), as all of Europe's gold was escaping to the USA.

The markets have a way of head faking people who not paying attention to capital flows.

[1714982028]

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[1714982028]

1714982028

[1714982028]

1714982028

[OROBTC]

...

TPTB

You raise so many interesting items for me to think about (before responding) that I just decided to cherry-pick 'em and pass along three comments.

First, thanks for the extended Armstrong comments re Asia (China).  What you say makes sense, that China's .gov is ONLY concerned about maintaining their corrupt rule, and that the distortions in their economy are their chickens coming home to roost...  Thanks also to LiteCoinGuy (a fantastic asset to bitcointalk) for the great table you posted.  The scenario you sketch out re money fleeing to the USA from the R.O.W. is quite plausible.  The steep rise in the US$ would (likely) end as you suggest, with a crash led by US producers and too much debt.

Second, while I do not closely follow Harry Dent, I have read a book or two of his and read occasional other pieces of his.  I have never found him compelling and have also noted his flip-flops on trends.  The one important issue he does raise, DEMOGRAPHICS, is under-studied, but I am not sure he is looking at even that correctly.  He also has a glib manner of writing that is not attractive.

Third, I (of course) am not a deep thinker on Bitcoin.  Yet I read what I can when I have the interest and time.  You are the only one I have read who makes a reasoned scenario how BTC could decline even worse than gold (ah, that's sort of not so bad, LOL...).  I do not understand the mechanics of how the Chinese miners could & would sow destructive seeds, but the Chinese mentality os different than mine.  Somewhat related are your observations re corruption as an ingrained part of the cultures in SE Asia, I see that as well in Peru.  Petty (and not so petty) corruption is accepted and even expected in so many cases (Exhibit One: all 15 or so Presidential candidates running in Peru).

*   *   *

Graham Summers, bwa ha ha.  Lead advertiser there at ZH.  Hell, I can write as well as he can about SHTF.

Silver: the devil's metal.  I guess they call it that for a reason.  Silver has never had a Happy Ending for me (nor my cousin who owns a LOT -- not as much as you did, but 10 x more than I ever did).  As you found, Ag is not good if you are (or might need to be) mobile.  I keep just enough silver around to use as "change" (small currency units) is it all comes to that.

*   *   *

Since my post here is a ramble, I would ask if Armstrong has ever written on platinum, a much neglected PM.  Or if you have any of your own views on Pt, I would welcome that as well.  My own take on Pt is that "platinum is for optimists", that is, I would expect Pt to do better (relatively and absolutely) if world economies are doing well.  Pt (and other platinum-group metals, but especially Pt) are essentially necessary (and AFAIK not substitutable) as catalysts to remove pollutants from diesel and gasoline engines.

[btcbug]

I believe Martin Armstrong has the correct model of what will transpire over the next few years.

His model is basically that the entire world is short the dollar ($10 trillion in international corporate bonds denominated in US dollars, various currencies pegged to the dollar, e.g. the Hong Kong dollar and Chinese Yuan, which enabled China to undercut the world's manufacturing and become a highly imbalanced economy with 65% share being for factories and only a miniscule consumer share, which leaves China with overcapacity and negative profit margins, etc)..

So basically what will happen now is the entire world will go into collapse mode as the US dollar goes higher and the world's wealthy flee into the US stock market as the final safe haven. This will cause the US dollar and US stock market to sky rocket until about 2017.9, after which the US will collapse due to a strong dollar overheating the US consumer economy and collapsing exports. From 2018 to 2020, will be "an over the cliff" collapse for the entire world, since the US economy was the last one still standing up in 2017. Asia will bottom in 2020, because fundamentally Asia has the youth and the growth potential without the retirees that will fight for Socialism. Asia's debt can be cleared out by debt defaults, but the West's debt is cultural and can't be cleared out, because the boomers will fight politically for their retirements and demand the government tax everyone to pay their retirements.

So March 13/14 is the turning point that should see crisis accelerate outside the USA. Just this past week China announced laying off 1.9 million steel workers. The exodus of capital from China going to the USA for safe haven has radically accelerated, some even saying China's reserves will be threatened as this accelerates.

Thank you for this summary! I find it a bit difficult to paint the big picture from Armstong's cryptic blog posts, but this is sort of how I was translating it.

Incorrect. They are highly correlated (if a smoothing filter is employed) since 2013. Gold had a rise recently and so did Bitcoin.

I found this chart:

Source:http://allcoinsnews.com/2016/01/29/tradebock-research-finds-that-bitcoin-gold-negative-correlation-has-intensified/


Yes there are periods where it does seem highly correlated, but that chart is actually showing us that most of last year was the opposite. Thoughts?

[OROBTC]

...

That's a nice chart, btcbug.

I found another (not as nice, but illustrates more or less the same).  This one compares the Bitcoin ETF vs. the GLD (the ETF for gold, "paper gold").  While this is not a perfect pair to compare, it is "good enough".  This compares the recent ratios of BTC vs. gold (scale change of course as it is the GBTC vs. the GLD, neither of which are exactly the asset they each track).  Still, FWIW:



It shows only the most recent five months or so (probably because GBTC is so new), but if gold and Bitcoin were perfectly correlated you would see NO CHANGE (or very little let's say) in the ratio.  Instead it has varied between o.25 or so and 0.65.  And that is just in 5 - 6 months.

[btcbug]

...

That's a nice chart, btcbug.

I found another (not as nice, but illustrates more or less the same).  This one compares the Bitcoin ETF vs. the GLD (the ETF for gold, "paper gold").  While this is not a perfect pair to compare, it is "good enough".  This compares the recent ratios of BTC vs. gold (scale change of course as it is the GBTC vs. the GLD, neither of which are exactly the asset they each track).  Still, FWIW

It shows only the most recent five months or so (probably because GBTC is so new), but if gold and Bitcoin were perfectly correlated you would see NO CHANGE (or very little let's say) in the ratio.  Instead it has varied between o.25 or so and 0.65.  And that is just in 5 - 6 months.

Thanks. It's hard to find charts going back any length of time and comparing Gold, Silver with BTC.

Gold and Silver are highly correlated long term, but can we say the same thing about Gold / BTC? Crypto hasn't been around for long and so when I see the negative correlation between the two since last July, is that just a short term negative or are we witnessing a change that will become the new normal between the two?

It makes sense to me that BTC/Gold would be highly correlated, but do we have enough data?

[btcbug]

I'm long term

What if there is no long-term:

Well, that's the question we've all be asking since 2009 essentially. I'll definitely consider what you're saying and I appreciate your comments. It's hard for me to imagine BTC going to zero. The only way it doesn't make sense for me to keep holding it through the upcoming economic turbulence is in that event that it does fail. What are the odds?

[TPTB_need_war]

I'm long term

What if there is no long-term:

Well, that's the question we've all be asking since 2009 essentially. I'll definitely consider what you're saying and I appreciate your comments. It's hard for me to imagine BTC going to zero. The only way it doesn't make sense for me to keep holding it through the upcoming economic turbulence is in that event that it does fail. What are the odds?

I don't know but even if it doesn't fail to stop functioning, I am nearly certain the mining is controlled by the Chinese and they will cooperate with the G20 to make sure you Bitcoin's don't transact until you pay Hellary Clinton or Merkel 100% taxes on your gains (because you can't prove your coins weren't used in money laundering before you obtained them). Capital controls are coming and Bitcoin will not escape them.

[tabnloz]

I believe Martin Armstrong has the correct model of what will transpire over the next few years.

His model is basically that the entire world is short the dollar ($10 trillion in international corporate bonds denominated in US dollars, various currencies pegged to the dollar, e.g. the Hong Kong dollar and Chinese Yuan, which enabled China to undercut the world's manufacturing and become a highly imbalanced economy with 65% share being for factories and only a miniscule consumer share, which leaves China with overcapacity and negative profit margins, etc)..

So basically what will happen now is the entire world will go into collapse mode as the US dollar goes higher and the world's wealthy flee into the US stock market as the final safe haven. This will cause the US dollar and US stock market to sky rocket until about 2017.9, after which the US will collapse due to a strong dollar overheating the US consumer economy and collapsing exports. From 2018 to 2020, will be "an over the cliff" collapse for the entire world, since the US economy was the last one still standing up in 2017. Asia will bottom in 2020, because fundamentally Asia has the youth and the growth potential without the retirees that will fight for Socialism. Asia's debt can be cleared out by debt defaults, but the West's debt is cultural and can't be cleared out, because the boomers will fight politically for their retirements and demand the government tax everyone to pay their retirements.

So March 13/14 is the turning point that should see crisis accelerate outside the USA. Just this past week China announced laying off 1.9 million steel workers. The exodus of capital from China going to the USA for safe haven has radically accelerated, some even saying China's reserves will be threatened as this accelerates.

Add to this, if we go 'Full Rickards', the US Fed operates using flawed Phillips Curve and NAIRU modelling and will therefore completely miss the real state of the economy. They are looking at flawed figures that tell them growth is picking up and they will raise once in March and again in June before realising their folly (that the US is in recession). As is stated in their last dot-plot communique. Then its some for of QE, too little too late.

Another rise will be the manning of panic stations short term and the USD will get a big boost as people will now think the rising cycle is actually on and not a 'one and done'.

[TPTB_need_war]

ISIS is building operations in Mindanao!

This is why Davao City Mayor Duturte (who is running for President in the upcoming May elections) has stated that Federalism (giving more autonomy to regions) is essential for peace. The corrupt Congress in Manila failed to pass the Bangasamoro law on time because Manila wants to keep all the tax revenue for themselves.

I think it is nearing the time to leave Mindanao. Also the Zika virus has arrived in the Philippines.

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/137351/is-inspired-militants-on-offensive-in-mindanao

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/137460/milf-warns-is-may-gain-from-bbl-delay

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9U3iU6Mzh4Y

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/135083/analysts-isis-a-real-threat-to-ph

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/136571/isis-officially-recognizes-oath-of-allegiance-from-ph-militant-groups

http://opinion.inquirer.net/93477/the-philippines-buwaya-problem

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/136601/is-releases-video-of-malaysian-militant-minutes-after-he-was-shot-in-ph

[minor-transgression]

Somehow, I have difficulty believing that the US Stock market and the US dollar can
continue to soar. Mean reversion gonna be a bitch an' all even as it is.

I can agree with MA from the trader's perspective, and that accepts that markets can
remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent.

But eventually, rational wins, and fundamentals matter.

[TPTB_need_war]

Martin Armstrong is still emphasizing a dead-cat bounce of gold to perhaps $1309+, then a crash to a final low < $1000 and mostly likely < $850:

We are targeting the reaction high and the final low.

[Alex-11]

Martin Armstrong is still emphasizing a dead-cat bounce of gold to perhaps $1309+, then a crash to a final low < $1000 and mostly likely < $850:

MA is forecasting a collapse for the Euro next week. To me it looks like a strong USD could push Gold off the cliff in the coming weeks, IF the Euro collapses. Just as in Oct. 2015 where both the Euro and Gold plunged.
What do you think?

[TPTB_need_war]

Martin Armstrong is still emphasizing a dead-cat bounce of gold to perhaps $1309+, then a crash to a final low < $1000 and mostly likely < $850:

MA is forecasting a collapse for the Euro next week. To me it looks like a strong USD could push Gold off the cliff in the coming weeks, IF the Euro collapses. Just as in Oct. 2015 where both the Euro and Gold plunged.
What do you think?

I don't think he definitely stated that the Euro will crack next week. I think it is a turning point that we might see some sea change in bond spreads or debt crisis or something, that might precipitate the actual move of the Euro. Or the Euro might make its move now.

[SillyBilly]

Martin Armstrong is still emphasizing a dead-cat bounce of gold to perhaps $1309+, then a crash to a final low < $1000 and mostly likely < $850:

We are targeting the reaction high and the final low.

Long time reader, first time poster. Thanks for the info, I cashed in the majority of my gold and silver stocks yesterday on the expectation this rally is tiring and the low is yet to come. I have followed MA for a long time and broadly speaking I have found it to be profitable for me and a learning experience. I tend to have my own investment ideas which I cross-reference against his long term predictions (I am not a trader) and that works well enough for me.

I must admit piling my money into the DOW/S&P 500 has so far been too much of a ask. I know MA says the computer calls it and to disengage emotionally but it really is a challenge to put my faith, albeit temporarily, in a stock market near the highs going into one of the biggest meltdowns in history! The reasoning makes sense but even still! I feel this is one of his biggest calls yet, I really have to decide shortly whether I go all in with him or not.

[TPTB_need_war]

He won't be wrong on the US stock market DJIA reaching a minimum of 23,000 by 2017.9 (40,000 is a possibility). But also after the gold low, it should also be a viable investment. Diversify.

If you get another change to buy in the 15,000s, I'd jump on it, as that will be a 50% gain over 1.5 years.

I think gold will out perform though after its low. And crypto currency will surely outperform if you can buy it on a coming low and if you chose the right one (Bitcoin currently very murky and undergoing a scalepocalpyse).

[Alex-11]

I don't think he definitely stated that the Euro will crack next week. I think it is a turning point that we might see some sea change in bond spreads or debt crisis or something, that might precipitate the actual move of the Euro. Or the Euro might make its move now.

This is what he wrote 3 weeks ago

The target for the collapse was 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016.

This did sound like drama to me, but maybe you're right and some other "kick-off event" will come first. It did make most sense to me that Gold would fall by the end of the month, but the things that are potentially coming in the Euro made me think twice. Either way, the price will likely go down soon according to MA.

[pinky]

I see a few possible events that will change EURO trend as Martin said:

1. Thursday this week ECB will announce decision regarding extending QE program and possible lowering of interest rate.
2. Next week FOMC meeting takes place. Markets were very sceptical until last Friday's Nonfarm payrolls that we will see any interest rate hike this year. Highly likely that they will reasure to the markets the path of hiking the interest rate.
3. EU banks problem over the weekend, namely Deutsche Bank (it is in panic mode for the past year - selling and contracting it's businesses all over the world - something is brewing).

[Afrikoin]

Gold's Rally A Study In Perfectiion

http://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-39%3bs-rally-a-study-in-perfectiion-200120876

Look what gold did

[darlidada]

Gold report is out.

We should organize a group buy or something. Anyone here is interested ?

[loafer_1997]

Gold report is out.

We should organize a group buy or something. Anyone here is interested ?

Have you guys done this before?