Bitcoin Forum

Hey guys, I will be starting my own BTC speculation thread which I will be updating regularly as the movement of BTC's price permits.  The movement of BTC is starting to become interesting again as we could all see it go over 1000 USD again in the near future and hopefully create a new ATH.  I want to share my thought process and analysis with you and hopefully get some constructive feedback.  Trading is still and will always be a learning process for me.

With that said, let's start with my first thought process.

BTC/USD:  Is This Sell Down Caused by Panicky Traders or Are the Whales Unloading?"

https://i.imgur.com/Oq3qGQx.png

When I saw the sell down from 740 USD to - 680 USD I immediately thought that there was another exchange (hopefully not Bitstamp or BTCe lol) that got hacked.  So I scoured the internet for news on Bitcoin and all I could find was an article about a rumor that China was gonna start imposing capital controls on Bitcoin exchanges.  But there's no official statement, no nothing, just rumors.  So now the question is, was the sell down caused by panicky traders or are the rumors true and that this current sell down might then be caused by the whales and people in the know?

In my opinion insiders and whales would milk the market with as much fiat as they can without causing any panic.  So it was probably caused by panicky traders, or even by trading bots that got their stops hit on the way down falling one by one like dominoes.  

What do you guys think caused it?

Edit:  Here's another point:  1) Caused by panicky traders = The trend continues.  2)  Caused by whales and insiders = The end of the current trend, or possibly just the first wave.

Fake rumors and people selling their Bitcoins (panic) ... I believe it would go up again.

in both cases it will stop in a short time and price will go back up and become stable again.

in my opinion bitcoin price over all is rising but if you want to see short term it is mostly manipulation or you can call it "using opportunities". it means for example price has gone up and everybody has made some profit, then there is a rumor, a news etc then everyone starts unloading to take the profit and get ready to buy cheaper that is when panic starts because price has gone down $5 so others join in and price goes down $10-$15 and then everybody join in and price takes a hit which can vary depending on the reason for the start of the drop. the bitfinex hack could drop the price $100+ this one only 30-50 and as always all those who sold on top will buy back at the bottom and you see a sharp come back.

I think this is a panic sell caused by the rumor about China imposing Capital control over bitcoin.  This is how shakeable bitcoin supporter is lol.  Just a rumor to make them sell, well probably those who sells are already in a profit.  So more possibility is the pre-mature cashing out of people for profit.


More probably it will, as i observed the price it is starting to bounce back now.  Hopefully it will continue.

It was a purely technical drop... we failed to break the resistance at 5150-5180 CNY,  and fall to about 4500 CNY. This was needed to form a cup and handle pattern. That news was probably spread to create some more panic and blood for the whales to buy up. We're going up from here.  ;)

Actually it was surprising to see so much weak hands sold loads of bitcoin being panic over news from non official source and it was just news regarding they are planning only. Bitcoin banned in china, how this sounds? This can't be reality for sure.

Where is the analysis ? I can see only questions there ??

you want some tip. Get back to your chart, draw some trendline in the 4h (you'll be able to draw a rising wedge), then put up your rsi indicator and look at the divergence we've been seeing for a good part of that run up, and maybe you'll understand that this move was unsustenaible as we were approach an important resistance and that insider were probably selling. (and damn, look at that reversal candlestick at the exact top of that move....)

I suggest you learn more otherwise this topic doesn't had quality to this part of the forum (which is, i recognize, hard to do).

The China rumors are not confirmed anywhere, and at the same time zerohedge started them a huge spam attack started all over this forum. There's a thread about it in meta.

Big spam attack in the main section (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1669851.0)

A day later and the forum is still being spammed by newbie accounts repeatedly posting the same FUD thread. Manipulators are putting massive efforts into fudding the price down when it was overdue a retrace anyway. There would have been a retrace without the FUD, but the FUD probably made it bigger by panicking traders.

The trend continues.

We have the same theory. I also think that the sell down of Bitcoin was really accidentally caused by trading bots' stop losses being hit and activated causing another sell down and another cycle to continue like, to use your term, "falling dominoes".


Here is the funny thing. The people who released the rumor knew really that the trading bots stop losses will be hit and it will cause a sell down going below $700.

Please look at the edit in the beginning post, basically that's what I think of the sell down.  And please know that I don't believe in market predictions.  No one can predict the market accurately, not even the 'experts'.  So trend lines and technical indicators won't really help me much in the way I trade.  Imho, they only limit the potential of what the markets are trying to tell you.  But that's just me and the way I trade.  I'm sure your style works pretty well for you and maybe others too.

https://s22.postimg.org/78isdr4ap/Untitled.png
https://i.imgur.com/WzkZ3W5.png

https://i.imgur.com/AmMnOMg.png

https://i.imgur.com/BeuFegK.png

https://i.imgur.com/i5hChOb.png

https://i.imgur.com/eXg5WZx.png

https://i.imgur.com/zvmy544.png

https://i.imgur.com/eyLkSX4.png

and then he bought back in..... i guess.

If you don't believe that we can predict potential outcome with different probability, then you believe that the market is efficient, following the random walk theory, and then there is no point analysing it (or neither trading it)  ;D

Do you really believe you can predict the market?  Then tell me exactly at what price will BTC be on November 6, 2017.  

How can anyone predict the markets when there are real world, random variables always at play here.  It could be another exchange getting hacked, or China finally banning Bitcoin or a comet hitting the Bitmain mining farm...  It could be anything really.  The best we can do is limit our risk and maximize our returns based on the size of our bankroll, the price movement and the volatility.

Edit:  Can you please explain the efficient market hypothesis and the random walk theory and its inverse correlation with market prediction?  I would love to be educated in such matters since you're so smart.  Thanks.

You can trade the market without predicting it. You say 'I'm going to enter here, exit here, and stop loss here'. If the risk with your stop loss is much less than the reward of your exit, then you only need a low probability of being correct.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesis.asp

Fair explanation in here.

Regarding sentence in bold, those action have an impact on the price, if it is big enough that the "noise" cannot hide it, then you can trade on it. for the bitmain mining farm, since it's an exogenous variable and totally unknown to the market, you can't do anything.

Can you explain it in your own words?  I was hoping you would clarify further how the efficient market hypothesis and the random walk theory has an inverse correlation with market prediction.  That would really be appreciated.  Thanks.



So are you saying that there are only certain variables that directly affect the price of Bitcoin that you can act on or trade?  How can something like a Bitmain mining farm going down be unknown to the market when it has something to do with what makes Bitcoin secure?  I'd say it would really affect the Bitcoin market in a big way.  And knowing how irrational most people are, there will be dumps galore happening.

A strong efficient market hypothesis (one in which there is not point to analyse the market to profit from it) is a market where all information are already priced in. Thus the price "randomly" variates around its fundamental values. In this case there is no point to predict market since, when trying to predict market variation, people are assuming the market is not strongly efficient, and not all information are priced in. The only thing you can do is buy and hold, not trade on any indicator.

Speaking about your second point, the bitmain mining farm would certainly had price impact on the market before it happens, since "insiders" (let's call them this way) will short the market massively. Nonetheless, we were there speaking about a comet destroying this farm, and there is no way this news can not even a tiny bit incorporated in the market since this event is not know to anyone before hands. and yes, it would affect the market in a big way. (to give another similar example, brexit, since most people didn't believe in it nor knew how to price it correctly strongly affected the price afterwards without giving signal beforehands). i hope its clear enough  :D there are lots of paper and books on that if you want to deep further in.

I think the price dump was due to panicky traders who wanted to make profit before the curtain falls.

Thank you for that cutting edge analysis.  :D

EDIT: how is that sig camp doing

I don't know man.
To me it looks like some big guys don't want us to rise.They need us down, in terms of price, at least for some more while.
That china rumor of course helped in that case. Just spread some neg bs and enough people will start to panic.And the big and smart guys of course take advantage of that and make their stash of coins even bigger.
Or it is just some whales who like to take some more fiat profits for some more time before Bitcoin really starts to accelerate.
Whatever the reason is, we small guys will have no influence.So lets just take things easy and deal with the situatoin.

Who do you mean by 'they'?  Don't you think this is just a minor panic sell due to that fake news about capital controls by the Chinese government?  I think we're putting too much stock to that rumor that it's already affecting our way to trade.  There may be some traders who are still thinking twice before diving into the action right now.

BTC/USD:  Unable to Break the 750 USD Barrier

https://i.imgur.com/wNWhCom.png

Is that how high BTC could get?  Maybe how high it can get for the time being...?  Traders seem to sell their bags at 740 to the 750 USD level for some reason, so the question is have we seen the current top at this stage and must sell some in order to buy back at lower prices?  It peaked at around the same level months ago right before the Bitfinex hack occurred.  

Until it breaches beyond 760 -770 USD or so then I would likely think it's gonna start trading in a range from the lower 600's to the 750 level for a couple of months or so.

What do you guys think?

Hmm.. same thoughts here. If bitcoin breaks 780/790 levels. I expect it to move to higher levels like 850/900 and so. Fresh entries are suggested once btc breaks out. Right now it may still be in range bound although I wonder how long it will stay range bound. Ultimately, I expect btc to breakout from the 800 range in style.  Good thread dude. Keep up the work!

 

Those reason could have effect to people who want profit and panic if the price fall down, so many of them panic sell their coin.
Bitcoin price simply affect by supply and demand which supply always decrease due to miners reward decline.
Although the price fall to $680, it recover to stable price ($700) and keep increasing now, we should reach $800 soon if there are no problems again.

Bitcoin and gold both spiked high during the US election only to then fall again which I found interesting. The instinctive reaction to Trump news was price rise, flight to safety for both. But why did they both, gold and bitcoin then fall and give up all the gains?

In this case I think gold is still the defacto indicator for the investor class. With bitcoin tagging along for laughs and giggles. Happily for the powers that be gold is easily manipulated via paper derivatives and has been hammered down into submission. Under the radar of most investors, bitcoin is not playing ball and rises according to market forces the way gold would too if not being stomped on.

In order to try and suppress rises in bitcoin the elites have no sophisticated futures market and paper derivatives able to drag the price around so they have to actually sell real bitcoins to suppreess the price or resort to mope in the media, eg china bans bitconi again.

Just my theory :)

The funny thing is if Wall Street starts to create Bitcoin based financial instruments and derivatives, as a side effect, it will legitimize Bitcoin as a mainstream investment.  It would also benefit the Bitcoin whales which Wall Street are avoiding to make them, the Bitcoin whales, even richer.  It will also benefit the dark markets because their preferred currency is now well recognized.

BTC/USD:  Break on Through

https://i.imgur.com/WvQACjW.png

Are we in for the big one this time?  Will we finally see Bitcoin surge way and beyond 800 USD?  All signs are pointing to a 'yes' for now, but as in the past it also could not be so.  It's really hard predicting the market as volatile as BTC/USD and the ones that try end up losing some money.  For the ones already holding, keep holding if you don't need the fiat.  For the ones who are looking to get in, just buy the dips.

Bitcoin holders also have the advantage to increase their holdings further by shorting altcoins.  ETH and REP come first in mind of good shorts. 

Don't know is the answer. It is nailed on that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month - this will cause the dollar to surge against most currencies plus gold.

But because bitcoin is a small market easily manipulated, bitcoin might not be affected, especially if people in China and elsewhere are piling in to protect the value of their money. I'm sitting this one out!

The current run of BTC/USD is a perfect example of how it should be right now.  It's slow, stable with a small pinch of volatility on the upside and downside here and there.  But the overall trend is up.  I love it.  Imagine if it could stay like this for two to three years.

Ok, so it looks like it's still going strong.  What more analysis can we all come up with?  Mostly nothing of value if you're not holding Bitcoin.

So for all the BTC holders out there, I have nothing but this song to celebrate the current price surge!

Swing Out Sister - Breakout
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dzqm4XVkMJ4

BTC/USD:  The Parabolic Rise...  And When Things Start Breaking Down

https://i.imgur.com/fSpS7M7.png

This is where active traders, both pros and amateurs, start getting irrational and become risk averse as their gains start getting big.  In my experience of observing all the different coins and tokens traded in the scene, this is where some cheeky traders start taking profit by dumping on the clueless ones.  They live by the mantra 'Buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy'.  In knowing that some of the other short biased cheeky traders start placing their huge shorts in the market right now and make a killing when the trend reverses.  And with BTC, falling prices do fall fast. 

I'm not saying that Bitcoin will surely fall vs the USD right now, all I'm saying is that it's time to be careful.

This is the part I hate.  After a parabolic rise, there's nothing.  Is there a possibilty of more upside action?  Yes.  Is there a possibility of more dumps in the market killing the trend?  Yes. 

In answering both those questions 'yes', leaves most of us confused and afraid on what to do next.

Best thing to do is sit back and watch.

That's the thing isn't it?  As it is my belief that no one can accurately predict the market, then your exact words, however simple, is the wisest thing to do right now.  BUT I will add to that:  'Best thing to do is sit back and watch.  But keep that trailing stop handy just to be safe.'

Yup I knew this would happen.  These types of panic dumps usually do after a parabolic rise.  If this happened in the NYSE the SEC would be all over the place investigating why and what caused it.  Another bubble popped, another manipulated rise dumped on by the same drivers that drove it.

I will post a chart later to see if there are possible shorting opportunities.

Look for Shorting Opportunities During a Bull Trap?

https://i.imgur.com/ECqnjKF.png

Before giving me some flack, I wanna say that I'm neither a permabull or a permabear.  I just take whatever the market is giving me and go with that.  Right now the market did what it did so you can't really blame some real people from looking for shorting opportunities.  It's obvious the current trend is over.  There will be bull traps caused by the people in denial here and there and I think it might be a good opportunity to short on them.  Please post your comments below.  Thanks.

Is This the Bull Trap We Have Been Waiting For?

https://i.imgur.com/wpIcSRR.png

So I got impatient and shorted a little and lost.  Lol.  I should have listened to my own advice and actually waited for that bull trap.  Well, this could be it...  BUT it also couldn't be considering how unpredictable Bitcoin traders are.  Sometimes they flick a switch and boom, we have a new uptrend that could go on for weeks.

Yeah, I'm lost.  ???  Tell me what you think by posting a comment below.  Thanks!

What I think: Do not short bitcoin. The price has been increasing dramatically almost every year. Shorting is way too risky.

On the daily charts Bitcoin still moves in an uptrend channel with a breakout the last two days.
And as long as we don't leave that channel downwards I wouldn't even think about shorting Bitcoin.

We'll see it more if Bitcoin surpasses the recent high.  But something tells me that this could also be a double top.  Something inside me is saying that I should place short sell orders at the 1130 - 1140 USD area right now in anticipation of a likely double top.  Then again if other traders are also anticipating it, it could fall before it could even reach that level creating the bull trap.  Safer bet would be the anticipation of the double top imo.  Then place covers a tad higher in case it surges up some more.  Gamboool!  ;)

this is pure gambling my friend ...

any rational idea for anticipating a double top ? 2017 is bitcoin's year (well it was already since mid 2015 ;D)

Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again.  Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT.  So all bets were off.  Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there.  ;D

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices.  I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.  

Nice; i am personnaly still in the alts I bought 2/3 months ago, I have more than enough BTCs  ;D

Heh.  I hope you don't get too in love with them.  I can see a couple of alts getting ripe to be shorted in the coming weeks, granting that Bitcoin continues the uptrend that is.

Yes i see many altcoin are failing in ICO itself only, but we have to be very careful in choosing the altcoin in order to make profits from it. I hope bitcoin is the best option when compared to altcoin because bitcoin price is steadily increasing.

Bitcoin is the best choice  :D

Yep.  It's Looking More and More Like a Bull Trap.

https://i.imgur.com/42HH3NV.png

Do we have to say anything and deny it?  It's right in there in front of our faces.  Did you really think the PBOC will stay away after a couple of warnings from them?  No, they're out there to cause havoc.  If you have BTC in a Chinese exchange.  GTFO now!

No stupid charts to visualize what's happening this time.  Anyway...  So the Winklevoss bro.s' little play toy, the BTC ETF has been rejected.  So what now?  Is this the end of the current trend or are we seeing more bullishness come our way?

Imo, I think Bitcoin will continue rising.  The hell with China and the hell with that joke, the ETF.  Bitcoin is good as is.

Post below and tell us what you think.

Well it looks like I was wrong in second guessing myself and that Bitcoin was indeed in a bull trap.  This time around I'd be careful with the trading strategy 'buying the dips'.  It was a good strategy before, but with the Core vs BU thng going on, I'd rather buy the dips on a good stable altcoin.

Another dead cat bounce.  Expect BTC/USD to fall again soon folks.  And imho, if you missed going short for whatever reasons, where the price of Bitcoin is now is a good window for a little shorting.  Check the daily chart if you can, there has been three lower highs already including the one now.

for less risk averse people, shorting bitcoin longing alt may increase gain considerably (at least it has been my case since one month).

That's true, but it does increase the volatility on your portfolio tho.

Anyway, here's a visualization of what I was trying to say in my post above.  It's the perfect set up to short imho.  But as always get ready to cover if the trade goes against you.

BTC/USD:  Three Dead Cat Bounces

https://i.imgur.com/Z0q2n0R.png

if you're to focused on portfolio volatility while it is going with your actual trade plan, watching equity curve can increase the drawdown period as you start being afraid of more loss and stop following the plan for when the big trade happen.

I meant that in general.  For me personally, I do a semi mechanical trading style and follow thru with the plan no matter what.  I think I'm one of the people who suffer huge drawdowns percentage wise here in the forum.  I have trades where I could have gotten out with +3x returns only to see them become losing trades at certain times.  It sucks but it's always about the long run.

if you follow a plan that win on the long run, you're good given that you've got enough capital to support the drawdowns period which always happen, I'd even say most of the time.

Yeah, but sometimes it gets really frustrating.  Especially when I hear stories in the troll box in an exchange that 'so and so' starting with .5 BTC and ran it up to 80 BTC in a week trading with maximum leverage.  Lol.  I don't know if they're telling the truth or trolling or something. 

what they don't tell you is that they lost it all the following week  ;) this is a patience game, not a get rich quick scheme. :D

That is a very very bad idea. According to a lot of analysts the bottom was in. In general you never want to short after a huge crash had just happened in the previous weeks. The overall trend is clearly UP. (Just my opinion).

It is called troll box for a reason, it is better to never believe anything random people say.
Especially when they are bragging about their fantastic trading strategy and max leverage which works every time.

I agree, we are shaken off FUD caused by forking drama and we are going up. Bitcoin rose 4% in last 24 hours. While ETH lost more than 6%.

Did nobody notice the huge bullish divergence on the 4h charts? Selling volume on the last drop to $890 was way lower than the drop before to $940. This should be telling you the sellers are drying up and the price will be going up soon. We may see another drop later but I expect the price to go up for a while now. My target is $1165 in 1-2 weeks from now, after which something will trigger another drop. Probably Roger Ver will pull another Mike Hearn and will announce he is giving up on Bitcoin and moving his entire stash to Monero or some other fancy alt of his taste. :P

I'll keep that in mind, thanks for the advice.  Although I still 'feel' the  dumps aren't over yet.  Only time will tell, so we'll see.


Posting a chart so we can visualize your idea would be really nice if you don't mind.  My sole purpose for this thread was to get some good discussions going.  Please feel free to post all your charts and the thought process behind them.

Why I Think This Latest Upswing Isn't Sustainable.

The reason is simple.  There's simply no serious volume to support this recent upswing, and in fact, the volume is falling.  If a trend can happen on such small volume, isn't the opposite also very much possible?

Here are some charts to show that it's happening to multiple exchanges.

Bitfinex
https://i.imgur.com/9WwqbkS.png

Bitflyer (Japan)
https://i.imgur.com/VL6R3YQ.png

Bitstamp
https://i.imgur.com/g1pEsMd.png

Kraken (XBT/EUR)
https://i.imgur.com/WOZmBRi.png

I'm really interested to this volume analisys...
usually, what happened when price rise, but without the support of volume??
(i think to know, but better get a confirm!)

Topping.

Yup.  It could drop anytime now and the funny part is nobody could really predict them accurately no matter how hard they draw all those lines in their charts.  Some could increase the probability to make them right tho.  And that makes them profit more than others.

Please help me understand the logic behind this. I should say that I am new to this and just trying to learn, so I'd appreciate some help.

I took the liberty of adding these red and greed arrows on your chart.
https://i.imgur.com/OOTZRDp.jpg

The part that I don't understand is the part where you say volume has dropped. I can see that on the chart but I don't get why it is considered a drop.

you see whenever there is a sharp movement (up or down) in price, the volume is always higher because of a lot of action. [The red arrows pointing out a couple of example candles]

and whenever things are moving slower, the volume is also smaller. [The greed arrows pointing out a couple of example areas).

So my thoughts are:
In case of your red line on the right, you are comparing the volume of 3 major sharp moves with a series of slower movement upwards.
And one of them (the biggest one) was only a 3 minute drop and rise from ~1200 to $1350 and immediately down to ~1100 and back to ~1200!

This is why I don't get why you (and I see others) call these situations drop in volume. So what am I missing?

Sorry, I should have made that clear.  But check the middle of March until May in the charts Imposted.  I even drew a descending trend line.


Check my reply above.


Again expained above.  Sorry for the misunderstanding.  And I tend to have a simple view and understanding of the markets.  Complicating it makes me hesitate from pulling the trigger.

BTC/USD:  What Next?

https://i.imgur.com/kzMRSH3.png

This doesn't look good.  Bitcoin is now a tad over 100 USD below it's 10 day low.  That usually is a beginning of a reversal.  But the good news is it did the same twice this year and then surged really strong after that, as shown in the chart above.

But really, the market is very unpredictable.  So I ask you, is this the same pattern or is it the beginning of bearish times ahead?

BTC/USD:  Time to Get Some?

https://i.imgur.com/f0hbDqk.png

Notice the higher lows and the decrease in volatility.  Now if this pattern continues, we could see BTC jump up and down in a tighter range of 2400 USD to 2700 USD or so.  Overall market sentiment for BTC is still overall good.   Caveat Emptor, but it could be a nice time to start getting some again.

A few green candles in a row, indicating that a new round of bullish market activity is about to start. This is probably a good opportunity to make a quick and safe 100-200 USD per coin depending on how long you're comfortable holding your position.

I think that 3000 is going to be a level that bitcoin is going to retest very soon. Probably before the UASF date. As you said, a lot less volatility, in fact every day i check the price of btc and it just doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Sideways movement is always the sign of bull markets, again.

I just found this thread and regret not having found it ages ago... Glad to see you're still actively posting analytics, though. Keep it up, bud!

Damn, the UASF.  I keep forgetting about that.  I think the traders will get iffy buying Bitcoins as August 1 comes closer and closer.  I don't think they'll be buying up anything above the very recent high of 2640 - 2650 USD, but expect too see massive bids at low prices just in case some people start dumping.

You guys think the blockchain will split?  I don't.

I don't think so either.

in my opinion the exchanges are not the only mover of the price, btc isnt only used to buy and sell fiat on exchanges. I dont know exactly how important they are htese days but I find it odd that nobody uses the info available at  https://blockchain.info/charts and other places when trying to predict price movements

Market jitters is setting in.  I think we're entering bear territory folks, if this continues then i wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin goes back down below 2000 USD.  Some folks are probably getting spooked with BIP 148 and a possible split in the chain.  Don't think it's happening but I still fear for the price.  :(

Well if you got some money left just put a few orders around $2k and $1.9k and $1.8k for instance.
Looking at the weekly I wouldn't be surprised if we touch the MA 20 (~$1800 at the moment) before moving up again.
But I'm also just guessing here. I think we will have to wait and see what's going to happen in august.

Market can just as easily consolidate with chop rather than a real bearmove, both things does the trick. Unless something really fucked happens around Aug 1, any drop will probably be bought up quickly. Everyone and their mother is looking at 1800$.

That's what I'm worried about, the value of bitcoin can seriously deteriorate in the future, I am very confused between selling and holding. I need a wise decision, because the value of bitcoin can be less than $ 2,000

Actually if I didn't lose the last two attempts in shorting BTC, I would short it right now.  There's some probability that it's falling below 2000 USD with all the BIP 148 UASF and Segwit2x NYA sh*t going on.  Couple that with the current price action then we have a recipe for a market crash.

On Twitter there's LukeJr., who's implying if UASF fails, he'll do a split and let that be the altcoin with a new POW algorithm.  This is gonna be interesting.

It looks like this might be the first time Bitcoin's going below 2000 USD after staying there for almost two months.

I have a couple of questions for you.

1.  Is the bull run over?
2.  How low do you think will this go especially after August?

Edit:  With all the BS drama, I'd say it could go as low as 1500 USD or lower.

BTC/USD:  LOL

https://i.imgur.com/LQOr96M.png

And this is why I have been so reluctant on shorting Bitcoin.  All it takes is a group of motivated traders to buy it up significantly moving the price up and hitting all those automotaic stop losses and margin calls making the price rise accelerate even faster.

Yes, I not know the reason make the price of Bitcoin pumping fast in yesterday. WTF from $1800, Bitcoin recovery and breakout to $2800 in today lol, I can sure 100% by whales and the fomo of trader on market

I'm pretty sure, besides the FOMO, there were bots and automatic stoplosses and margin calls closing the shorts involved in making the price go up so fast like that.

BTC/USD:  Cocking Up and Firing Soon?

https://i.imgur.com/9UVvz7U.png

Are we going to see another ATH soon?  There seems to be some forces in the market that wants it to be so, but then again there's an opposite force trying to turn it into a double top.

But the fact that most are skeptical makes me think it's a double top, but then again a huge surge up could cause FOMO and make it surge up even more.  ;D

You decide.

it is currently testing the ATH, and in my experience when things are like this we can't predict anything. i would wait and see if the ATH is broken, if price goes above that line then it will be (as you said) a FOMO and price will surge a lot higher and if not there will be another dip down to around $4000-$4100 again.

Yes, this is the time careful of trader on market, they also understand the risk when trading in the final days of the month like now, so the volume trading usually decrease if do not have hot trend like Monero in past days.

All time high really wouldn't be any of a surprise. As you said there seems to be at least some kind of force trying to push up the bitcoin price whilst there are other people that are dumping their stash. It's really just come to a halt at around $4200-4400, not going down and up right now.

I would be really careful trading right now, though. Buying in for the short term could potentially gain you several hundred bucks per coin you buy if bitcoin goes up further to break the ATH, but then the profits won't be as crazy as earlier this year.

We're in a bubble, and this could crash at any given time. Try not to get too comfortable.

Monero doesn't have a trend although I agree that it's indeed really hot right now.  What I hate about Monero is that it's so unpredictable.  Check the XMR/BTC chart and you'll see that it's so spiky and an ugly looking chart.  The best way to make some BTC from it is to buy and hold. 

In Fluffy we trust!  ;D

Obviously There Ain't No Stopping BTC

https://i.imgur.com/xyd8SnD.png

It has done it 4 times in 2017 alone, and maybe double that if you include 2016.  Do you guys think we'll see BTC/USD at 10K USD by the 3rd quarter of 2018?  I think yes.  

Despite all the FUD, all the bans and all the bad projections, BTC ain't listening.  It keeps saying 'Adios suckers!'.

We still might haven't seen the real 'to the moon' yet.

Edit:  Oh, and feel free to critique me.  All the analysis just went out the window.  Took me awhile to realize, TA ain't sh*t when it comes to this run.

It's been a long time...  ;D  I started the thread at a time when BTC just begun its crazy ride.  I think it's time to get back into it again.  ;)

Love to see old prediction threads coming up again. :) So how are you feeling tokeweed ? Do you get a cozy bullish feeling for the coming year as well ?

Yes! There is an utter lack of technical analysis around here lately. I need more chart ideas to challenge my biases. :)

I'm sensing some very 2016-like qualities about the current market. Despite all the bearish sentiment, I think 2020 is going be a very exciting year. What are your thoughts?

What do you guys think?

https://i.imgur.com/VSMeG72.jpg

It's all starting to get interesting again tbh (at least for me).  I also tend to come in a tad later than everybody else (esp. after having almost two years of winning nothing.  Lmao) so we'll see...

i'm cautiously optimistic. we're coming off a strong double bottom and breaking up from a lengthy sideways accumulation---that's as good as it gets. any good bull market starts that way. however, it's too early to distinguish between a bull run and a bull trap. as long as we're below the weekly 20ma, the 200dma, the upper trendline extending from last summer......nothing has really happened yet. the longer term charts still say "bear market until proven otherwise".

i've been watching dmwardjr's thread. he's got a great track record and he's bullish as hell. i want to believe:

^  It's been looking good so far...  It was sold down a bit but then held those recent gainzzz.  Maybe a little dip buying could start being a good idea. 

https://i.imgur.com/w7ahCtO.jpg

It's holding on you guys...  And this is the part when it gets iffy.  The guys who missed getting in would tend to get emotional and start buying at market causing more people to do the same.

Just be calm and wait.  If there's a good time to do a little dip buying, it's now.

Sure feels like dip buying season, alright. 8)

You see these altcoin breakouts today? The market is getting excited. Crazy daily candles on ETH, LTC, and others. This is Litecoin:

https://i.imgur.com/fIF4QnG.png

Still, until BTC has confirmed the 200-day and 20-week MAs as support I've still got Winston Wolfe in the back of my head. :D

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/ad/ad6c154ca1f4107e0581ec40e2e30e6085fe925657dfcc79581253aa416ef78d.jpg

^  Meme prolly turning out to be true.  The lack of volume is getting a little bit concerning.  Lol.  It could be another chance to do a little dip buy tho.  We'll see...  (Get your stops ready)

Not looking good (but still holding on).  *This is the part when I get spooked and sell without it letting hit my stop and be happy I saved some BTC's in the process, only to see it go 3x without me (my ETC trade)*  Lolol.

Here's that moment to finally see if this s**t's real or not.  But I hate the way it bounced so fast with no serious volume behind it.  Could be a DCB...?

Edit:  But then again if you look at it this way, it looks like all the selling is done with 7k(ish) the bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/3Cm96o2.jpg

Uuuhh...  Looks like it's gonna turn from dip buying to bounce selling.  Lower highs for the time being for now folks...  I think.  -_- 

Everyone is getting so bearish!

The majority polled in the WO expect <$8,000. Lots of Masterluc bear cubs in there.

Some fresh new bearish threads in the last couple days too:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5228812.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5228941.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5229120.0

I'm feeling contrarian. We rallied from the mid-$6Ks to the mid-$10Ks then retraced 50% and consolidated around the 200-day MA. That doesn't seem overly bearish to me.

I need more evidence before assuming it's time to sell the bounce.

I'm still bullish, more bullish than I was at $10K that's for sure. Probably because everyone is getting very bearish and ready to panic sell by the looks of it  :P

As the price of Bitcoin rise and falls everyday this month of February, the number of causes it might indicate is a lot, we can't really limit ourselves with two choices only. But, by observing the past movement in the price or standing of Bitcoin, as it had reached its highest record for this year, we could conclude that a lot of holders have sold their Bitcoin because of the pump in the price of $11,500 value. On the other hand, the presentation of supply and demand for the Bitcoin price is great as it shows the rise and fall in the standing of Bitcoin.

Panic sellers or not, we should expect a comeback for the price of Bitcoin especially, when the halving event is certainly coming closer each day.

I'm always bullish  :D :D

But indeed people sometimes switching there minds to fast ....

Hope non are gonna sell the imminent bounce... the one that doesn't look back  ;D

A lot of people will. It's inevitable, that's how markets work. They build up all this fear and panic during temporary downtrends, so when the reversal occurs everyone is left in disbelief. Then they keep waiting and waiting for the price to drop but it never does.

Then FOMO kicks in. 8)

The important thing is not to get swept up in all this emotion, fear, greed. And also this:

^  What about now?  Where are the bull BTC maxis?  Seriously tho...  I hate to be right in this instance.  But yeah DCB's all around coming guys.  -_-

I said we are in a bear market. You keep selling hopium, saying that the profit was 100%+ from 3k, but how many bought at 3k? What about those who bought at 6k, 9k, 12k? What about those who have families to feed and were in DCA, buying every week, regardless of price?

Now you are going to blame the fake pandemic on this dump, to sell more hopium. This fake pandemic is the beginning of a global police state, and the whales who sold themselves to paper speculation will dump their bitcoins.

The pandemic is very much "not a hoax"
It might not be as bad as people expect  but it is a worldwide epidemic.
It has nothing to do with a police state ....

Stop smoking bad stuff.... ;)

Really? Then why the italian government turned a entire region into a prison?
Its just a flu virus, known for decades. They are computing every death from pneumonia as part of the "pandemic".

1)
Quarantine is not a prison. It's a request to stay home to stop the spread. It's not to suppress the people, it's to stop them dying.
A lot of peope have self-quarantined. Most can work from home anyways....

2)
It's not "just a flu"...

Flu has a fatality rate of 0.1%
Corona has a fatality rate is 6.9% based on the Chinese numbers.... which is 690x worse than the flu.

3)
Where did you hear this? This is simply not true...

4)
So please inform yourself....

Here is a good source of live data
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Here we go...  Is it the much awaited reversal or a dead cat bounce?  Anybody's guess is as good as mine.  If a guy pointed a gun on my head and I had to choose.  Sorry sorry but it'll be the latter.

The reaction about the 200-week MA suggests a historic V-bottom. Coinbase had its highest weekly volume on record.

It may technically be a dead cat bounce but like David (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg54060180#msg54060180) I have doubts the next attempt down will actually yield a lower low.


No way, the original estimates were way overblown just like with the swine flu.

The overall fatality rate among symptomatic cases was 1.4% in Wuhan. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/health/wuhan-coronavirus-deaths.html

When we can better account for asymptomatic cases, I expect the rate to be revised south of 1%. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/what-is-coronavirus-how-did-it-start-and-what-is-the-mortality-rate

^  So that means (he thinks) it could start going sideways.  I don't think a lot of traders are too excited getting back in after that huge break down from 8k to 4k.  Lol.  They could go short tho.

Sure, trading in the $5,000s now is like trading in the $200s in 2015. BTCUSD was extremely bearish from Q1-Q3 2015 in any longer term classical TA sense.

In the same way, the recent drop from $10K was quite bearish and it still feels like the bottom could fall out any time now. Will it? Stay tuned and find out. The high volume V-bottom off $3,850 tells me we may be in another 2015-like accumulation period. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54020305#msg54020305

It looks like Bitcoin will be correlated again with the stock markets. There was a nasty open which led to the stock indicies getting the limit down halt hit and BTC also had selling pressure.

I don't think we will go from $8K to $3.4K in a day or so of trading however if the dow30 and sp500 get another nasty -10% day then most likely so will bitcoin. Currently the numbers are going up exponentially and people honestly are fearing for the worst. So the reaction of the New York open will be the sign of how the rest of the week will trade. And especially the reaction to the unemployment numbers when they get released later on.

It does look that way. Technicals and fundamentals are both pointing down. The pre-market futures open and the failure of the US stimulus bill has really set the tone for next week.


Scary headlines on that front:

Michigan sees 2,100% increase in unemployment claims (https://wsbt.com/news/local/michigan-sees-2100-increase-in-unemployment-claims)

COVID-19’s Worst Case? 10.6% Jobless Rate, $1.5 Trillion GDP Drop (https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2020/03/21/covid-19s-worst-case-106-jobless-rate-15-trillion-gdp-drop/#2e45fb0010a2)

The bottom's in, sure...  But here's what I'm thinking (And I got a lot of flak from this.  Lol)...  BTC could also happen like the Nikkei.  The Nikkei hasn't made new highs in three decades.  What do you think?

I don't see enough evidence yet to discard the stock-to-flow model or this historic EW count. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54020305#msg54020305)

Anything is possible though. We may in fact have entered a bearish super-cycle, as xxxx123abcxxxx points out. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg54018386#msg54018386) His chart indicates price, not time, but it could theoretically last a decade or more.

I don't really agree with that assessment but I also can't discard the possibility. :-X

I think that there are way too many people who are betting that tomorrows employment data will be horrible and they are shorting the stock indicies or loading up on puts. Currently they are expecting 1,500,000 people filing for unemployment but in California alone I think over 1 million people already filed. When you add the 49 other states its definately going to be a miss.

Now here is the issue. Every Tom, Dick, and Harry knows the numbers are going to be brutal. And they are turning into huge bears expecting the SP500 and US30 to drop to new 54 week lows. What usually happens when the herd is following one direction? Usually the opposite happens.

Sometimes the herd is right like with the airlines crashing and oil crashing however I think tomorrows numbers will be one big bear trap.

It's basically already a fact that BLS unemployment data is going to be horrible. The only question is to what extent it is already priced in.


Any COT data to back that up?

S&P 500 futures just rallied 18% from the lows. The daily gain on Tuesday almost set a new record. Intraday analyst sentiment may have turned bearish but I don't think sentiment is anywhere near as bearish as you make it out to be. Not to mention, sentiment is just like an oscillator. During strong downtrends, the market can sustain fear for long periods of time.

The market is probably due for more relief rallying in the next couple weeks but it isn't going to sustain this week's rate of gains by any means. The market already rallied all week on stimulus deal rumors. You think now that the news is in, the market is going to keep rallying? To where?

https://i.imgur.com/AaJGtZX.png

So like, I've been looking at this chart for hours man.  And it's just like, I don't know man.  Is it like..  going up or going down?

Seriously, third time's a charm?  ;D

Nice observation. It definitely looks that way now. Spiking into the $10,000s as we speak.

I'm still not going to celebrate until the market clears $10.5K with authority. That's significant multi-year resistance. Once we're firmly above it, it's technically a bull market again. Lots of fence sitters will pile back into the market and lots of bears will be trapped at that point. That's bull run material.

^  Nope.  Lol.  And I kinda gave it a little more time too.  I was being more patient this time but nadda.

Anyway, wtf happened to everybody in these parts?  The speculation section used to be sooo active...  Now it's almost dead.

Edit:  And no spike in volume.

https://i.imgur.com/huyYsWo.png

^  So BTC is above 10k but how come I feel like 'it's not the bull market we're looking for'?  

*Insert Obi Wan meme here*

I mean it looks like it's gonna go side ways for more than a couple of weeks.  But is it going up after tho...?  What do you guys think?

Honestly, when I see fractals like that, they rarely play out the same the second time. For that reason alone I'm betting on a sharp breakout sooner than later. :P

Just waiting to see which way this daily BB squeeze breaks:

https://i.imgur.com/txwqxVg.png

It should bring a significant move. Bulls held the daily close yesterday, just barely.

^  I was holding my breath and was waiting for that next leg up that could finally take it to 12k and stay up there.  But nope...  Not this time it seems. 

I see my Tronzz are pumping tho.  Lolol.  ;D

Whoa..  Looks like I'm gonna be wrong when I said BTC won't be hitting any new all time highs anytime soon.  Sad thing is...  I sold most of what I had and started holding XMR.  I mean I didn't lose anything in USD but it still sucks cos I feel like I'm leaving money on the table.

Yep, sucks to be on the wrong side of the ALT/BTC trade. There is still hope yet:


Stick that in your hopium pipe and smoke it. :P

To be honest though, XMR's chart is especially brutal. It's been a bloody month. I'm still steering clear of altcoins completely until I see technical signs of a bullish reversal vs. BTC. I need to see ETHBTC and BTC dominance flip bullish. Not a fan of bagholding altcoins!

^  Broke the hopium pipe and threw it.  Man..  I'm getting anxious.  It's like some people know me as this crypto guy and they think I'm uber rich cos BTC as up by a lot.  I feel pressured rn.  Lolol.

Did you capitulate on XMR? Damn, right as it looks like ALT/BTC charts have bottomed.....

ETH looks super bullish against BTC on the higher time frames. It's time to buy dips. I'm very bullish on both the technicals and fundamentals. I also view ETH as an important gauge of the entire altcoin market.


LOL. I know that feeling all too well.

Don't let a lost opportunity lose you more opportunities, that's the important thing here. I put half my remaining trading account on ETH (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5269715.msg55651006#msg55651006) recently (minus BTC on a stop loss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5255531.msg55673954#msg55673954)). Sure I wish I had put a bit more in, but also I know going going half in always feels better risk wise. That and the opportunity to buy dips again in the near future (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5269715.msg55674443#msg55674443)...

XMR/BTC as well as ETH/BTC are still 80% down from ATH, put this into perspective: Would you invest in Bitcoin at $4K (80% down from ATH) if you really believed in it fundamentally long-term? Especially if that $4K value in itself could 10-20x in the not so distant future. It's time to get aggressive, the trend is your friend!

Not really..  I converted some to ETH and used that as collateral for margin trading crypto/USD pairs.  I gotta get back to trading and get some lost value back somehow.  Sports betting football and the UFC is eating a lot of my time... and stash.  Lol.

Anyway, is Trezor's ETH wallet any good?  What other wallets for ETH can I use with my old Trezor?

This could change with how expert analyze when bitcoin way because almost an expert have unique method to analyze with bitcoin price but most exactly predictor come from fake and good news, I think how ever your chart way when have bad news make people panic for selling and bitcoin will dump although have an expert will show bitcoin going up, then after panic gone bitcoin will raise to higher price, I think most important become waiting with panic moment for selling or buying because can give us chance how and when good timing to buy bitcoin or altcoin without waiting for some predictor, maybe this my ideas more prefer trust with bad and good news for bitcoin price impact than have to make picture with analyze chart  ;D

Is it just me or does anybody else feel like BTC's price is gonna start breaking down again soon...?

Edit:  Maybe just a little sideways action?

20k USD..  And I got a couple of people who aren't even into crypto texting me about it.  They think I'm really loaded in BTC and that I'm filthy rich now.  Rofl.  And it's stressing me out.

We all know the feeling. The people smart enough to hold onto all their coins over the years are living it up on a beach somewhere, not trolling Bitcointalk like us. :P

There's always altcoin season......hopefully. ;D