Bitcoin Forum

Please only serious posts by bears only. I need a discussion on how far you think this price will drop.

I am slowly buying bitcoins for non-bitcoin investments that are somewhat price related to bitcoins. I am only investing in non-bitcoin investments which are still cheap even if bitcoin falls below $300.

I personally believe the price is still way too high and all the signs are pointing for a big drop. Volume is also super low which usually means further drops are coming. Bitcoin has been nothing but weak the last few days and I expected the price to be in the $700's when I woke up this morning.

How far do you think this will one go until the price finally stabilizes? I am thinking around $300-500, since I always undershoot it will probably fall in the $600's.

What are you guys thinking? Where do you see bitcoin finally falling and stabilizing at?

I have no idea.

Why is that? Because the price has been so unpredictable lately or you think it can really go either way?

700 seems plausible during these holidays. But once new year comes over and people start working, expect it to rise to new heights.

This kind of logic never really works out.

What happened is that the bubble could have gone on for a little while longer and pop naturally. But resistance from investors which had gold parity as a target prevented that. But I don't know how many of these investors are and if they will deplete the demand or not.

Hey accord01, you wrote these reasons in another post about why you think it is going to fall. How far do you give it?

1) double top at ~1200, closing in on triple top

2) no more money coming in from china

3) latest rally/bounce overbought like crazy

4) over 7 million bought is funds from bitfinex leveraged positions going long.

5) There is absolutely not enough new money to sustain this rally...

6) heavy hitters have their fingers ready for the trigger, as well as smart bulls and all the bears.

What would an unrealistic bottom be? $600?

The question is will china's next leg down find support above or below its previous bottom of 3800 and if it is below, how low will it drag the other markets? At what point do gox and stamp declare themselves independent of china and set their own support?

In my opinion if it falls to levels like ~550, there is sure-shot possibility of it going to ~200 levels due to panic.

I think it could easily fall to $600. And it has fallen that low after the $1200 high.

You have to take certain things into account here. Less than a year ago bitcoin traded at $13. For most of 2012 it traded less than $13.
Now it has jumped up to crazy levels. Has the demand really increased that much? Are the buyers there to continue to pay these high prices for coins and cash out the people who want out?

New money entering into the market is definitely not the reason why the price is so high. It is ridiculously hard to get money safely into bitcoins and especially at high amounts. I know because I recently had to do it, and this was after Dwolla stopped being a way to transfer money.

The high price bitcoin reached will have many bitcoin holders hoarding their coins as the price drops and will cause the price to stay higher. This is really the hardest thing to predict for a bottom is how current holders value their coins and if they will simply just not sell them.

I am thinking if the price starts to decline more into the $700's many people will wake up and realize that bitcoin price has just reached too high and they are quickly losing their chances to cash out when the price is still ridiculously high.









 

hard to say where hard support is. we rose so far so fast that my feeling is that support levels are not established. sma200 daily is near april 2013 top, i think that is the absolute bottom. this is after a prolonged downtrend though, kind of doubt we make it that far but possible. otherwise maybe 380-450.

Wrong in that it will bottom lower or wrong in that it will never reach that point?

If I'm insufficiently ursine to participate in this thread, just say the word and I'll see myself out.

It seems to me that we are very unlikely to return to double-digits during this particular downward trend, for three reasons. First, that it would constitute a worse run of pessimism than was seen even in 2011 (when there was a good reason to argue that as a financial instrument BTC had used up its 15 minutes of fame forever). Second, because $100 was a strong line of support during the Q1 bubble; flash-crashes during the run-up would remain above it, and even post-pop double-digit prices were only in evidence during the most emotionally deflated periods. Third, that the semi-stable base for the Q4 bubble was around $125, and previous bubble-pops in Bitcoin have never crossed below their bases (whereas double-digits would require crossing 20% below that line).

All the above said, however, I think prices below $500/coin are probable (going by the depth of the immediate China sell-off, which is probably no shallower than what awaits us), and as low as $250 are still possible enough to be worth mentioning.

Probably hit $.50? Maybe $.00001?

People are talking about 400-500 now like they were talking about 40-50 back in June. Everyone seems to be aiming for the same spot, so if you want to actually get in on the bottom you probably need to add at least 100-200 dollars more to that. I actually thought we'd see $450 again at first, but now I really am  starting to doubt we go down that far. We may see $600 again, and that's the best realistic bears can hope for imo. I am neither bull nor bear on the short term and I'm also not going to sell any of my bitcoins. I am trying to catch the bottom though with some fresh fiat, and I have been quite successful with that so far. :)

my lowest buy order is at 650, but I'd be happy even if only the 750 order would get filled. work on it, bears.

I thought $30 was overvalued, $60 was crazy and $120 was cloud cuckoo.  I lost words to describe the market after $240, so I have no idea, but I assume by 'bitcoins for non-bitcoin investments' you are talking about alt coins?  Surely that is an even worse investment.  I am all for a bit of Quark riding for fun, but if Bitcoin falls they all fall, plus you get a bit of added risk thrown in for good measure.  For the most part penny stocks are a penny for a reason,they are not a canny investment that everyone else has missed.

I can't say that's impossible, but I believe it's unlikely. And it's better to aim too high than too low, those who placed buy orders below $50 in June last Summer and then saw the price bounce up from $65 and didn't panic buy back in thinking it was a bull trap are not as well off as those who bought at $80 on the way down and then just kept their coins and waited patiently for the downtrend to reverse. But everyone makes their own choices, we can't all be on the winning side. :)

yep, gotta do that risk reward analysis..... setting sights at another price halving = coins doubled = pretty tempting...

Really?  My only "bear moment" as a permabull was that the price would drop during the second week of December through Christmas because people would either:

1. pull money out for Christmas shopping
2. not buy more because of Christmas shopping

Sure enough, Dec 6-7 was a massive fall that we haven't recovered from.  So far, I've been proven right.

So why do people believe that once Christmas is over that people won't have more money to invest?

a drop happens a few weeks within christmas, and youve been proven right that christmas determines the ups and downs of bitcoin? super weak analysis bro.

did you say no more >33% drops ever? i think you even said > 50%. wrong on both counts eh

I think that since everyone is expecting this huge drop, we probably wont have one.  I think we may see another $100 dip at most before we start to bubble up again.

a new bubble? trend is broken bro. were just gonna start flying to moon, huh?

thing is, everyone isnt expecting a drop. i think many TA readers are, but this forum, for instance, is by far still more bullish than bear. every second and third post still thinks we are heading to new ATH, all this talk about wall street trying to get everyone excited and buy back, etc

block 274545 

80,000 sent in this block  :o

any analysis from anyone as to where these coins are going? havent looked at any transactions...

The question to ask is if bears are true long term bears or long term bulls. Whether the aim is to sell BTC for good and return to fiat forever as a true long term bear, or whether the aim is to buy back in at a lower price point because of a future price rise.

If the latter is true, the USD demand curve for BTC remains constant. The prevalence of such (long term bull, short/med term bears) actually helps to stabilize the price by catching price dips.

I missed the > 50% drop.  Since $1155 to $576 is almost exactly 50%.

So, to sum up:

Correct prediction about Christmas almost to the day.  I now predict that we won't see an ATH until after Christmas.

"Probably no more than 33% and certainly no more than 50%".  Correct again.

last leg top was 1240, why would you calculate from the top of the lower high?
1240-->576

or did you mean to say that no single "leg" of a down trend would be more than 50%? that's not really much of a statement.

drop on btcchina right at 50%. we see if 4000 cny holds if we do drop. but "correct again" is pretty meaningless when so little time has passed.

The technical level on the chart where a bottom should have been was 400-450 but it didn't happen because Chinese volume suddenly came back and saved the day. It would be interesting to see where we would go if China truly dropped out. This is why I am not comfortable to he long right now - it recovered for all the wrong reasons.

If everyone were to expect a huge drop we would already had it.

I don't know, I think we have already seen the bottom; Maybe we will see <600, but I doubt it.  There is a little downward pressure right now, but its fairly low volume...I just dont see it playing out like the crash down from 266 which had a very pronounced bounce afterwards.  IMO, we will probably see a price drop no more than another $100 before we start moving up again (possibly after some sideways movement).  

I've seen enough of the older traditionally bullish forum posters around here with a enough of a short term bearish sentiment to give me pause.

I could be wrong, but I think we will start to bubble up again sooner than most people expect.

It is obvious that we 'll see again the 600$ bottom. The question is where the price will go from there because it will not bounce back at 1000$.
So it can either stabilize between 500-700$ or it will go all the way down to pre-china hype levels. Around 200$ that is.

Is it?  Past performance guarantees nothing, but the traditional thing we see after a major crash is a dead cat bounce that never quit reaches the ATH followed by a dip that never quite reaches the bottom.  This is typically followed by a period of sideways trading and a subsequent rise past the old ATH.

Now it is entirely possible this crash wont follow the same basic pattern as the others, but it certainly isn't "obvious" that it wont.

It's all from one source, based on the time and size of the transactions.  they range from 538 - 650 and get progressively bigger.  

https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000021aa9395c767187d1ba3507d6f95687ca350abd16fffca1e0


More BTC sent in the last 2 hours than in any whole day ever in BTC history.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions


Opps.  EDIT misread it :)

Turns out it's just some regular money laundering!

So bulls don't qualify for a serious discussion or what?

Not saying I'm bullish right now, but ironically, those who wish to hear only what please their ears doom themselves not be taken seriously.

There has been really big volume on every major exchange when the market bottomed at 7th of December. Also, it turned up slightly above the level where market found support at first major correction of this rally, which was at 20th of November.

Latest development is showing us that there is huge potential for Bitcoin in the future, and there is enough of investors who would like to take the advantage and buy cheap coins ahead of other investors buying it low. So the question is what price is cheap at this stage. It's the price where bulls are getting stronger than bears, and we've seen two times lately that this level starts somewhere around/above $500. Of course this guarantees nothing, but indicates enough I think.

Unless there is really big bad news for Bitcoin, it's pure nonsense to wait to see Bitcoin below $200 (as I seen few to suggest that), in my opinion. It's like waiting to see the price below $20 after April this year.

As long as I'm making more coins when the price is falling, I don't really care where the price goes. But remember, that too much of skepticism isn't any better than too much of optimism. This especially applies for Bitcoin, and many people had already lost enough of money/opportunity before realizing it.

Next bottom should be much lower, maybe 300$ if the down trend is really happening now

You know I'm a bill long term but I will answer your OP question as sincerely as I can.

In looking for the new floor you need to look for a downtrend from now to first week on January.

If you see a downtrend that gets heavy resistance before $600 you should buy.

There is way too muchl money sitting on the sidelines for the market to fall far. And when it comes back in he market will have established its floor.

Most people are looking at 600 the same way they did 50. So on a down trend I would expect the buying to start between $620-$700.

Your opinion is: bitcoin will allways keep going up.

But why isn't there a correlation between transactions and price? The price is way higher then the utility of bitcoin. Either the utility has to start skyrocketing or the price has to go down. Otherwise btc price will be purely speculative and I don't like that.

how do you know that?

I am neither bull nor bear, and relatively new at this.  But it seems to me, given the insane price rise lately, and the fact that very few people appear to think it could fall as far as the April ATH, that there is a decent chance it could fall that far or further.  Any number of (perceived) bad news items such as last week's China news could trigger it, and the very low volume provides further reason to think it could happen.  Ultimately, the value of btc will be determined by how widely it is actually used as money for transactions.  By that measure, it seems quite overvalued at $1000, since I doubt its use has increased tenfold in the last couple of months.  Overshooting on a correction could easily bring it back to $266, imo.  That is not a prediction, and I would not be surprised to see it at $2000 in January.  But I am not at all confident that $600 is the new floor.

Transactions:
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/n-transactions?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address

Around 40k @ jan 2013
Now: 60k @ dez 2013
Peak: 100k

Hmm 50% more transactions.


Just let's check the price.

http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-price?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

13$ @ jan 2013
890$ @ dez 2013
1200$ peak

We have a 6750% price increase!
It's purely speculative.

Some uber-bulls chose to ignore the 'bears only' title, again. This time it was followed by a 'please'. What does it take to keep uber-bulls out of a thread?

If the current market is going to follow EW patterns, then the very bottom has to be no higher than 495$ (Gox price).
That's because corrective wave C has to be at least as large (% wise IMO) as corrective wave A.
If the market will behave like in April, then the very bottom could be in the 250$ - 300$ range.
But the bottom depends heavily on how many coins will be panic sold when most of the market understands that it's a bear market.
And that's impossible to predict IMO, could be 50K more or 150K more, with hugely different outcomes.

indeed. that's the flip side of the "everyone thinks it will fall but it wont" argument. thing is, i see much more "up up up" posts than anything else, and vast majority thinks under 600~ is impossible.

I really was not bullish until now. But based on my previous observations on this forum, price usually goes up when Tzupy appears and say that we are in the bear market. This indicator works surely better than EW.

So from now on, I should probably stay out of this thread  :P

You guys are going to get f'ing burned. Good luck though.

Yup, he knows wall street will get involved soon I guess, last chance for cheap Bitcoin Ladies and Gentleman

will hit -100$ so you will be charged 1k for every 10 BTC you still hold!

there is no stopping perma bulls on bitcointalk

Jesus, what's with all the whinning and complaining from bears? And what's with all the "bears only" bs.

I am a short term bear. Like next 3 weeks. So guess what, I QUALIFY.

And I think we do not see $600 for a multitude of obvious reasons that if anyone will pull their heads up out of their EW charts long enough to take a look at, make it pretty in plain sight.

Sorry, but as a bear, that is my strong opinion.

I think we will see again $600-$650 this weekend, there is too much money on the sideline ready to buy to make it go further down
Will all the recent press coverage (good or bad) many new investors came in and many more will come next year
MtGox is not as relevant as in April and it's much more difficult to manipulate the price than before


Agree! if you are a true long term bear you wouldn't be here

No way we go below $502 on gox.

to be fair, bears cant post anything without a barrage of bulls following up with insults, ad homs, etc

i dont see the same nonsense from bears, but, shrug

For reasons I don't entirely understand, many of the uber-bulls on this forum seem to internalize any bearish bits of speculation as a personal insult and will lash out because of it. I guess that's what happens when you attach a fragile ego to bitcoin.

Most bears, on the other hand, take a more objective and rationale look at bitcoin and are willing to hear speculation and views from both side of the aisle, and are unlikely to take any of it personally. So it's good to have exclusive threads like this where bears can logically analyze market behavior without all the emotions and drama.

I describe myself as a short term "technical" bear and a long term "fundamental" bull.
I believe a majority of users in the speculation sub-forum fit this profile (atm).

Price wise, I base my bottoms on %50 drops and spread my orders 0 to 20% above (in April I would have bet on 70% drops).
It worked pretty well on the last three significant drops since the 6th ($550, $650 and $800 on stamp).
I'm now 30% fiat and am waiting for the next opportunity.

I give 1% chance to a $200 scenario, 5% to $400, 20% to $500 and a good 60% to $600.
All the reasons have been mentioned already, whether it is TA or FA, it seems to point toward a $700-$900 channel with drops slightly below that.

My piece of advice: don't be too greedy or you will miss the bottom.

This is in contrary to only-bears thread.

May be an exception though...

Yea, I see it very similarly.

most of speculation forum is a bear circle jerk, and like i said, cant post bear analysis without bulls screaming you down, so it is difficult to hear the opinions of other bears

I guess you must be new here. After the April bubble pop, this forum was a bear trollfest. It all depends on the current market sentiment. It's easy to blabber about on your bullish/bearish views when the market is in agreement.

So I disagree with the idea that excluding one camp from your thread will lead to a more intelligent discussion. Unfortunately I'm a hyperbull, so I won't comment on the topic. :P

Most of the "fights" come from misunderstanding the time frame on which the other is bearish / bullish.
The only line worth drawing is between to-the-mooners and to-zeroers.

not new, well not that new, lurking since march. so i've seen the cycles. i'd say the assertion still applies.

i'm a long term bull. that doesn't make a bunch of "youre gonna get slaughtered" "to the moon" "new ath by friday" responses to bear analysis helpful to me.

 I agree with everyone about not being too greedy and missing the bottom. This was my big mistake in 2011 that I regret now, but I learned from it.

Seems like the accepted and probable best low we will get is around $600. I figured a low of $300 to $500, so since I always undershoot it will be around $600 maybe even only $700.

Probably the best strategy at this point is to just sit the market out now and wait. Only buy bitcoins if its heading north for a good reason. We will probably sit back and watch it slowly keep dropping.

The speculation forum has really slowed up recently, and mt gox volume is the lowest I have seen it at only 9730 bitcoins. Seems to be dropping and dropping. The speculative boom is ending quick and many people will probably be slowly cashing out as it takes a long time getting your money from these exchanges.

Could be years before another bitcoin bubble happens.

Or a couple months.  :P

I never would have expected the October run-up to come as soon as it did.

Are you serious?? Probably this is the most wrong statement in this thread  :)
With all the "projections" of money from finance institutions coming in soon the next bubble is just around the corner..

Thread name screams: "Clueless noobs, read me asap!"

Words like "serious" and "X only" are contributing to this factor.

Long term bull here of the most wild eyed variety. Do I think BTC could take out $10K? Oh yes, but we will see the $300's first before we ever see even the $1000's again.

If you look at the astronomical run up, realise that much of the funds piling into BTC was debt taken out to invest in Bitcoin, appreciate that now that profits have been made, and now that the purchasing power has ran out of puff, positions must be liquidised to repay the debt and to take profits. And the same dynamic applies right across the board. Long gone are the days when Bitcoin was a 'cause'. These days it is the ultimate speculative roller coaster and the only reason people are investing in Bitcoin is to make money. Again, when it becomes obvious that the juggernaut is out of fuel for now, profits will be taken and sell-offs will occur.

Smart money is not going to pile into Bitcoin right now. Any rises in price comes during periods of very low volume. Even a novice can look at the charts and distinguish a blatant bear trend which may take some time (in Bitcoin terms) to iron itself out. The $795 - $345 November crash proved itself to be a bear trap, and the buying power that came in at this point was immense. Not so now after the Nov/Dec $1200 double top.

Because of all this, I would suggest that the lowest low is not yet in for this stage of Bitcoins growth. That means lower than $545. I am going for $340, around the support of the mid November breakdown.


Perhaps, but one thing I have learned from Bitcoin is that it has the power to totally smash peoples expectations in both directions. Just as Bitcoin has the power to shock people in how high it can go, it also has the power to shock people as to how low it can go. Lets not forget, that Bitcoin is essentially 'nothing'. It is just an idea that would disappear of the face of the planet should someone happen to pull the plug and make the lights go off. There is no rare or otherwise valuable minerals, government, or military backing/enforcing the acceptance and use of Bitcoin. Thus no physical or practical limitations on neither the optimism when the mania sets, or the dread when the panic sets in.

Bitcoin can and will, exceed expectations in both directions.

There's 2 factors I'm looking at: BTC China and the immense market cap that we didn't have in 2012.

My money is in fiat - bearish position. I can't predict the next low, but will keep a close eye on it and make my decisions in real time. My strategy is not to have any long term orders. I usually do 2-3 hours of research before buying or selling.

Good evening bears. What do you think of this?

https://i.imgur.com/1oN4T8B.png (http://imgur.com/1oN4T8B)

i foresee a drop into the $700s this coming weekend... tough to call though.  i haven't been trading too well lately.

It might be a pure coincidence, but it is curious and interesting that for every previous BTC price cycles (2011, 2011 again, 2013 and this time around) the ratio of the post-crash low to the old peak (i.e. Low 2/Peak 1, Low 3/Peak 2, Low 4/Peak 3, Low 5/Peak 4) has in every case been about 2x to 2.5x:

Thus:

Opening price: 6 cents (October 10)

Peak 1: 38 cents (November 10)

Low 1: 19 cents (December 10)  

Peak 2: 1.05 (Feb 11)    

Low 2: 68 cents (April 11) [RATIO 1.8]

Peak 3: 29 dollars (June 11)

Low 3: 2.20 (Nov 11) [RATIO 2.1]

Peak 4: 270 (April 13)

Low 4: 65 (April 13) [RATIO 2.2]

Peak 5: 1220 (December 13)

Low 5: 660 (December 13) [RATIO 2.4]


On this basis, there is very little scope for any further fall. A ratio of 1.8 would give just under US$ 500 so I would be surprised if the price were to fall below that and indeed we may very well already have seen the bottom.

Not totally unpredictable

On the upside, mining cost projection limited how high the price can go (If mining is too cheap, then all the people who want to buy bitcoin will go mining, thus no one will buy bitcoin from market). The frenzy we saw this year is caused by the rising cost and difficulty of mining since ASIC enter the mining industry

On the down side, it is also mining cost limited how low the price can go. Lots of money have already been invested into mining, the cost is already there, miners will refuse to sell the coin under the cost, and that will dramatically reduce the daily coin supply once the price drop below mining cost. At that stage, many people would like to buy instead of mine, thus create support on exchange

Since there are so many fiat money out there, and bitcoin is new and interesting, some rich kids will just throw some millions of dollar in the game (like twins). If you consider this is a virtual gold mining game in cyberspace, there are plenty of kids ready to play the game

Historically, all the bubbles are caused by government printing too much money, and this is exactly the case now, with 2.8 billion dollars printed everyday, everything's price will be in a bubble very soon

Oh, and is any of this freshly printed base money finding its way into your pockets, or does it seem more to you that is being used as a hand out to the ultra wealthy who had great big holes blown out of their notional wealth as the housing derivatives market collapsed in 2008?

Also, the thing with the miners is irrelevant. The fact is that there are 12 millions infinitely dividable units of account in the Bitcoin universe right now with the potential for being as valuable as thin air, if the collective human mind really wanted to see it that way.

Here are more factors to think about :)

1. Fed taper
2. China slowing down economically
3. US recession
4. Winklevoss twins ETF
5. Coinbase consumer apps
6. Taxation of Btcs
7. Merchant transaction volumes
8. Hoarding - who, why and how much?
9. Dumping - who, why and how much?
10. Will someone please develop an auto Btc top up account (replenish from fiat)?

I dont know, you say central bank has to replace so many dollars everyday? Seems expensive...

Because new money can be created from debt only...  :P

I added "bearish and bullish" outcomes to the above.

I think you are right. I have been convinced for some time now the reason we aren't seeing inflation, is that there is no 'new money' all thats happening is there is a massive transfer of debt from the banks to the govt. The great unwinding. Rinse and repeat...

Last night I dreamed of a bear. It was actually really friendly though, and it's trainer encouraged me to get close and let it lick me, like a dog. What does it mean!?

This is serious price discussion, right?

Well, all that information has been priced in already and that is why the price skyrocketed to where it is now.

After the first bubble, it took over two years before it surpassed that point.

Does anyone else think my statement about the next bubble being a long time into the future is really incorrect?

Yes. You are just as clueless about bitcoins directions and causations today as you were 3 years ago.

This is bullish, if someone would like to invest he would keep it in secret

I was right pretty much every time with my bitcoin directions. Remember, I was the one of the few people at that time in 2011 who was saying it was way overvalued and it would fall. And it did fall all the way down to $2.00 from $30. This was when 99% of the forum were bullish and were telling me (or flaming me) I was wrong. Then when it didn't go down as low as I predicted, I predicted around $1.00 instead it only reached $2.01. I just left bitcoin all together and got involved with other things. I really didn't have that much money to speculate with at the time anyway. I figured I would wait for a stable long term price before I entered, which would have been around $10 as that is what it seemed to stabilize around for a long time. However, I was just not thinking about bitcoins anymore and was making plenty of fiat dollars.
 
When was I ever wrong? I never said bitcoin would never go up, I just said it was way overvalued at the time and I was correct. This was mostly when it was over $10.00, and it was still only a high of $13.00 two years later. My buy in point would have been $1.00 if it fell that low, I was only a $1.00 off if you want to look at it that way.

Then when bitcoin rose to about $1000 I said it was unstable and would fall. I then told people to sell above $1000 right before it dropped down to $600's. I was right again.

I honestly don't understand where I was ever wrong  ???.

I say now that it should fall a bit before rising, not saying a total crash but a reasonable correction from where we are at. However, I stand a chance at being wrong here because it seems that big investors have put a bitcoin floor price up. However, if anything I learned form 2011/2012 is that eventually it will fall even if it is looking stable. Time will tell. 
 

But its hard to say if it is just bubble or start of new technology. Probably something in between

It is hard (impossible) to use Bitcoin only now, and exchanging fiat <--> Bitcoin is very complicated.

Remember, current fiat system has huge network effect, it is like trying Linux to overtake Microsoft

We have a two-way bitcoin ATM here in Vancouver, so it is trivial to exchange Bitcoin for fiat in a hurry.  For a better rate but longer wait, just link your exchange account to your bank account. 

Once more cities have two-way bitcoin ATMs, fiat <--> Bitcoin will all of a sudden seem very easy. 

How was I wrong, I did see the beginning of the technology about the same time you saw it in 2011, based on the dates we registered. I do agree that it was a great technology at the time and would solve some of the fiat issues. I was big into how fiat is a scam before bitcoin.

Yes I did worry about the volatility of the exchanges, when I first heard about bit coin it was priced over $20 dollars each. Why would I invest in it at $20 dollars at the time when I was smart enough to wait until it fell all the way to $2.01. At that point I just decided for it to stabilize a little bit as I did not see it skyrocketing again at that time or any time soon (within a few months) and it didn't.

My reasons were that the price is fluctuating so much that it could just as easily fall back below $1.00. If it did stabilize above $2.00, then I would buy there without taking the risk of it falling to zero. It was actually a smart decision if you ask me, as the coin became more and more tested, and there would have been plenty of buying opportunities after that time for even $3.00 range I believe. You should know that bitcoin was untested at that time and there were still major ricks of governmental shutdown and someone hacking it driving the price to zero.

My issues were that I just got interested in other things and didn't even look at bitcoins, I never even posted from early 2012, until last month.

I do not agree with what you wrote.

And every seller will just dump the coins @ market price to get fiat like bitpay now?
That won't solve the adaption problem.

If people allways convert bitcoin to fiat after a trade, then why use bitcoin? You could use any other electronic form of cash, even one with a fixed price.

Bitcoin will become usefull, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.



@ Holliday: The exchage rate is only low for people who bought @ over 100$. All other enjoy the profits. People with high buy in prices need to be optimistic, because they want a simliar performance (100000% profit). That won't be possible the next 5 years. Bitcoin won't reach 10 Mio $ (equivalent to todays dollar value, not including hyperinflation).

Bitcoin will become usefull be valued at $100,000+, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.

Even at $100,000 you won't need the majority using it.

This, very long way to go there, as for now I believe Bitcoin price is overvalued by speculation

but the question is -- will the price actually come down much as a result of this? i don't entirely disagree with you.

The problem is, most people think Bitcoin is going to be worth a whole damn lot more in the future. So why sell for fiat now and live in fear of missing the greatest opportunity of your life? Just a couple months ago people were selling at $100, you can't just walk away and think I'll just come back next year to buy back in when bitcoin has actually matured a bit more...

Or some clever person invents auto Btc top up with fiat whenever a purchase is made in btcs.

That means your Btc balance will not change.

I think most peoples strategy should be at this point is to sell a good portion of their bitcoins and sit on cash. If you see the price starting to rise then buy back in.

It is far too risky to sit on bitcoins right now.

At least that would be my strategy.

I disagree.

fools sell bitcoins in a bear market, its a buying opportunity, silly bears...

Yes it is a good buying opportunity, you sell what you have and buy a lot more at a lower price.

Bitcoin is getting weaker by the day, the price won't hold for long and a drop is almost certain at this point.

If the price looks to have regained strength then buy again.

You have it the wrong way. It's when the price moves upwards it will drop. When it moves downwards it will ultimately reach a critical point where people think it's cheap and buy in, creating a new spike upwards with all the sheep following since "it's going to the moon" again.

The only point is where the critical point is, I believe because of long price trend around $300

I'd say we're dropping until new years and then moving up again. In my opinion, we will not reach as low as $300, but maybe $600.

Question: why does the discrepancy between trading.i286 and blockchained persist?
This is going on for two days already, the bid sum and ask sum on blockchained keep being
significantly lower than on trading.i286. Like 34M$ vs. 37M$ and 33kBTC vs. 39kBTC.

nice thread on the price trend here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=432733&page=30

my money is on bounce at 690 on btc-e in next 24-48hrs, but whether theres enough buyers in the 600 range to push it back up to nov highs i doubt it. probably get some stability around 700-800 after the next bounce.

Looks like we bears are right again.

Well, it wasn't really that hard to understand the price going lower. $1200 bitcoins could be the biggest speculative bubble in history.
$900 bitcoins was just still totally crazy and unsustainable. $800 bitcoins, nope way too overpriced and no way you can sustain that.
It took two years for bitcoins to rise to $13, then all of a sudden people are putting that much fiat into bitcoins for the price to rise to $800?

How anybody holding bitcoins did not sell at least around $900 to $1000 and just sit on fiat is beyond me. It was almost certain to go lower. If it started to creep back up and look strong again then just buy back in.

This bubble is very similar to the 1st bitcoin bubble. There were many times I even had doubt the price would go lower, but I still felt it was overpriced and would go lower. Eventually it did go lower.

The problem is, new money can't really get into the system that quickly to sustain these ridiculous prices. Especially money into bitcoins, where it is time consuming and difficult to get your cash in. Bitcoin owners already have their bitcoins and will not be taking their own fiat and purchasing $1000 bitcoins. They are not that stupid, even though they will tell other people to buy in. The only thing that held the price higher was probably a few large investors manipulating the market.

I said from the beginning this would be a controlled drop so that the manipulators could cash out. You can't be stupid and think the price is not largely manipulated. When looking at alt-coins prices, it is so obvious to see the manipulators come in and pull their tactics, and is also amazing how much money they have and will spend doing so.

These market manipulartors simply don't have the money to push bitcoin prices higher than $1000 right now, so they will make money by letting the price drop and buying back lower, then maybe they will push the prices higher again. I do have doubts if a new bubble will happen anytime soon, I predict it could be years. Too many people will want to sit on their bitcoins in the short term thinking the price will sky-rocket again. This time they will sell fast and not be stupid to think the price is going to crazy levels like $2000.

Well, today the question will remain in my head. How could bitcoin holders be so stupid to think the price will go higher than $1000 anytime soon. How could they be so stupid not to sell out their position and sit on fiat when they had plenty of opportunity to do so? I honestly can not comprehend how stupid bitcoin holders can be and how ridiculously stupid they can be with their price predictions.

Bitcoins to the moon, bears to hibernation and bulls to the bank with bags of cash!

Yup, so what is your buy-in target?

Or if you don't intend on buying in, how low do you think it will hit, and where do you reckon stability will be found.

Numbers backed up by facts or chart trends would be nice, although to be fair all of my best Bitcoin decisions/predictions have been influenced by instincts and/or dreams. (and my worst ones from following media and blogs that confirmed any particular emotional bias I happened to have at a particular point in time). With this said, my dream of 3 nights running where Bitcoin shockingly hit low double digits again, does give me some personal concern, as my buy-in range is $300 - $540 at present.

Personally, I don't think charts can be a very good price predictor. They may be but I simply just go by my own intuition. I take into account what seems reasonable and what doesn't.

Where I feel the price will go to is probably around $300-$500 also. I usually undershoot a bit so it will fall to $600.

My expected lowest target is $490-$550

before i understood that china banned bitcoin commerce i expected 300-600 for the low.  probably around 4-500.


however, the fundamentals may have changed.  if the rumors of china banning payment services to btc exchanges are true, that removes all the chinese demand for btc and puts a ton of long term selling pressure on btc.  without China i assume the bottome could even be low 200s


doesnt really matter, im mostly fiat and short selling 15% of my bankroll right now.  making money no matter what.  ill have to evaluate what the facts are regarding China's payments on btc if they banned payouts/withdrawals or not.  i wont be too happy if i end up all in at 450, then watch it drop to $250 and stagnate for months.

Hmm.

It just hit $665 (on Bitstamp) without so much as a bang.

This makes me think that the actual low will be dramatically lower than this.

Usually, the lowest of the lows are found in quite a dramatic fashion before an upswing that represents the market telling us that this low-point was a gross underestimation. My highest buy in tranche on Bitstamp is at $550. Just a few days ago, I was considering whether this was a bit optimistic. Now I am thinking that it is perhaps a bit risky.

I keep reading this and see two interpretations.
Are you saying you think the low will be lower than $550 or that it won't get as low as $550?
Just my guess but I'm thinking easy $500-$550 by late thursday/early fri.
Leveling around that range until after Christmas with a very gentle climb to New Years.

EDIT *** I just read the news about China. Wether it's true or not... by late thurs/early fri $400-4450

It's all speculation man, nobody really knows or can tell you.

I'm just hoping it holds just a little longer so I can cash out my little play money I bought last week. Liquidating all my play positions to get my bitcoin back. We are only talking like 3 bitcoin here, but $850-950 dollar bitcoins.

Luckily I bet good, because I am still up at the moment even though losses are heavy.

Hopefully the bulls can be optimistic just a little longer.

This is why I didn't speculate in 2012, because after watching bitcoins fall from $30 to $2.01, really didn't want myself putting fiat into it at the time. Easy to say I was stupid now, when bitcoins rose recently. However, now I know why after being active during that time why I didn't invest even though I really do like the idea.

My plan was to invest when bitcoin reached a longterm stable price, that would have been around $10.00 but stupid me just forgot about bitcoins.

$750 bitcoin price right now is way too high. I would say with china slowly being put out of the market, things should go back to reasonable growth levels. We were at $13 in January, I say we really shouldn't be higher than $100 at this point. I doubt it will fall that low, but the risk is there. The risk is far too high to be investing in bitcoins at anything higher than $200 dollars.

I just don't see the long term gain here when you could invest in other currencies that may come out in the future. Downloading over 10GB of data didn't make me feel really good about bitcoins long term growth.

It is far easier for you guys who own bitcoins, when they were under $20, to stick in the game, but buying them at $650 or $500 or $400 is still a highly risky investment, unless it stabilized around that point for a really long time.

Yes but a lot of people really believe that Bitcoin is going to go up much more next year. And with this thinking comes the thought that whether or not I buy in at 400 or 600 or 800 now, best be on the safe side and at least have Bitcoins. Because the returns in a year will be good any which way. I would not wait more than three weeks before getting in.

The situation is definitely looking worse now...we may see sub $600 after all.

Today China already hit 3310 CNY= $542 USD and they used to be the price leader.  It's not over.

Until today, my guesstimate of the time required to reach the very bottom was no longer than the 22nd December, but after
comparing the patterns of April 12th - 16th to the current ones, it seems that the moves take now about 5 times longer.
So if the market will continue to move at this slow rate, the very bottom might be reached only around the 28th December.
If the 5x longer time for moves will be confirmed, then a new fully developed bull market might only start in about 12 - 15 months from now.

The discrepancy between trading.i286 and blockchained has grown larger, wtf does this mean?
Trading.i286 shows right now about 49.5k coins on the Gox ask side, while blockchained only about 38k.

You can't extrapolate like that.

Guys, sorry to break it to you bears, but in the long run bitcoin is going to the moon, get all you can now at sub 1k levels because come 2014 its going to be a whole new world.

Dellusion  ;D

Transactions increased only 50% in 1 year.
Bitcoin has a long way to go till real life utility becomes significant.

Price is up 6500%... Overspeculating ... You expect another 5000% price increase without more transactions?

I expect BTC to take over the financial world in 2014-2015!

If that happens I will eat your hat

Well, I happen to not wear a hat, I wear a helmet with built in babrwire around it, in case anyone tries to de-helmet me.

Be prepared for a bloody meal!

Looks like bitcoins stabilized at a new temporary price of $750. I think this is another temporary stop before it lowers again to a more sustainable level.

I see no reason why bitcoins won't fall back to $300 or lower now.

Lets face it, it seems the whole reason bitcoin boomed recently was China. I wish I knew just how much they were buying, but they seemed to be the big player. With the government cracking down over there and if china is pretty much out of the game, who is going to be buying $750 dollar bitcoins?

Surely not the people who bought them for $100 and lower. These people are probably the majority of the people who have the potential to buy bitcoins. They talk about going to the moon, but I doubt any of those people are going to fork $750 of their fiat dollars for a bitcoin especially when they are holding some already. They talk about going to the moon because they want their value to increase. They are not taking $750 dollars and buying a single digital coin.

More and more people should start selling their bitcoins as the price stagnates and signs point to another drop. Right now the price looks very weak and no signs of any recovery.

For their to be another speculative bubble and price to go to the moon again, bitcoin will have to lower in price enough for new people to want to buy them. The price will have to go to a level where people feel they are undervalued and another buying frenzy gets pushed forward. I don't see this happening until the price reaches at least in the $200's.

Check BTC transfered (in USD value at that time) and you will see increase

And this is why bears like you always miss the bottom. Earlier in this thread you kinda accepted that maybe you should buy at $500-600 and not at $400 since you usually undershoot the target. Now when there is a little panic and fear in the air you are back pedaling towards $300 and lower. You know that this way you will be sure to miss the bottom again don't you? ;)

well, the first port was before the recent news from china, keeping a target without any kind of fundamental analysis is not a good strategy imo

The reason for the boom is more complicated than just China (as for China, only Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing areas were really involved).
IMO the recovery from the SR crash (which crash was corrective wave 2) was the start point of the boom and China only strengthened the uptrend.
Once price started to rise sharply, more people got interested, and new fiat flowed into the exchanges for quite a while.

As for the price at the very bottom, I said before that it depends how many more coins will appear in the asks, right now about 51k on Gox, according to trading.i286
In April, at this stage of the market, the biggest dumps already happened, so the most important information now should be the amount of coins transferred to the exchanges.
I believe the next days will see greed turn into fear, as the buyers look weak, and more coins will appear in the ask sum, building up seller pressure.

Who in their right minds anywhere who has anything to do with Bitcoin (except maybe one or two poor Chinese noobs) really believes that it would stay at a price like $300 for anything more than a minute before bouncing right back up and right out of there? Who thinks Bitcoin is going to have an average price of $300 next year? If such people exist, quite a few of them exist, then he's in with a small chance. If not then forget it - $300 will not happen.

Ok T.Stuart.

Come clean. How many BTC are you holding and at what average price did you get them at?

Honestly none. But I'm getting some money to an exchange somewhere near you pretty quick.  ;D

Ok.

Them BTC must be looking pretty cheap right now. Almost half the price of little over a week ago.

But does the big China Bitcoin wind-down not worry you?

The difference between 350 and 700 (and 1000) is marked. It seems to me that buying anything under 1k is a bad move to maximize gains.....

why is it looking worse? It looks like it is holding in the 700s. There has not been a huge sell off yet like on the 6th. I think a lot of weak hands were shaken at that time. Definitely a downtrend though. Maybe it will just be very slow? Who knows? Where's the new Mystery chart?

Regarding the weak hands thing.... a lot of the bottom fishers are weak hands. Me, for instance. My hands are so fucking weak right now. Just playing the bounces.

Prepared to eat my words, but this level will be broken.

$300 may seem unreasonably low right now, but it's all a matter of perspective. Less than a month ago, $700 felt unreasonably low to a lot of people. Perhaps in another month from now, we will fall to $300 and then people will be waiting for $200. Market sentiments are always changing.

I don't think it is nearly as bad as it seems. It's not as if China had adopted Bitcoin, a billion people were using it, then it got banned. It sounds stupid, but it's this kind of semi-conscious thinking that is creating a "China goes, we all go" illusion. It's not like that. Bitcoin was growing at the same exponential rate before China, and there are billions of other people to keep this rate going for a good long while. That's why the price isn't dropping as much as you might think it would - because the real market for Bitcoin is not just a reflection of the China hype we are getting.

And with all that, it is not even banned in China and I very much doubt it will be. They simply want to control the flow of money into it like they try to do with other assets.

Now aside from the China stuff, Bitcoin is being accepted in many countries now. Not a day goes by now without it being touted as an asset by some European country or another; and it doesn't matter that it's as an asset - it's being accepted and that will allay the principal fear of any average would-be investor. As for the other fears - security, price volatility, etc. - companies are working fast to make it easy and secure to buy and use Bitcoin with a simple username and password, and hedge funds are busy preparing the same graphs you have looked at showing exponential growth, logarithmic rates, etc. to show their clients. A small but significant handful of Wall Streeters and hedge fund people have already put their own money in.

I may be wrong but I bet nobody here thinks Bitcoin will be sub-$1000 at the end of next year; the vast majority think it will actually be much higher. Don't forget, even just a $300 rise from $700 to $1000 in one year is a superb return on investment. Put your $700 in a bank for a year and there's actually a chance with fees you will have less than that in a year's time! A good interest rate might give you a $15 bonus on the money after a year if you are lucky.

People realise that other people are thinking the same. That's why there is less mad panic and more hesitant "dumping" going on. No-one wants to dump and then see the price go up and not come down again. If it doesn't go much lower then trying to trade now is foolish and everyone knows and feels that. It's not worth the stress. So more people than ever before are holding on for next year.

I hope I didn't bore you all!  :)

Ok, I'm fairly new to bitcoins, having been trading etc.. since May of this year.

I'm reading all the speculation on here, and there are some things that are certain. The current price of bitcoins has zero affect on future prices. Just like stocks or commodities on the market, prices are affected more by external events than anything else.

Now since bitcoins are a currency, (to those who trade with them they are, so for our purposes they are), then things that affect currencies will affect bitcoins.

The speculation in China that bitcoins were going to be accepted by the central bank is what drove the really big increase to $1200 per bitcoin.

But, there is also another thing going on, the Ukraine has been in financial crisis for several weeks. And has just now agreed to a bail out from Russia.

I think these two things first China's central bank not accepting bitcoins, causing it to fall from the $1200 high, but then the instability in Ukraine has been holding it up in the $800 to $900 range for the past week or so.

Now that the Ukraine situation appears to be resolved, then I believe the price point will come down some. I wish I had that crystal ball to know exactly where that point is, as we all do I suppose.

I believe we will see prices in the $400 to $500 range, then slowly rebound.

This is the price range that almost everyone seems to be betting on....

....and if that is where the herd is going, that is probably where the price is going.

So what just happened over the past 24h then? Will it be coming back down again any time soon? Or have we recovered that quickly?

we're still clearly in a downtrend. we see over the next few days whether that will change.

bear markets don't hit bottom in a day

No, I still see downtrend in graph data, so I expect the price coming back down again to under 500 range

Were in an upward trend in available coins on Gox that goes back to the start of December, Depth took a hit recently but if it returns to it's prior accumulation rate it will be 4-5 days for it to return to the ~40K level that it was at just prior to the recent buy.

Dollar depth looks to have maxed out at 35 million and has been staying near that level, with brief downward spikes before even the beginning of December.  This clearly indicates the upward phase is over and the best that can be hoped for is stabilization, but we will likely see downward pressure from China for at least another month.

Nice try, bud! However, the situation in Ukraine has nothing to do with the bitcoin price movement currently. They've been protesting in Kiev for the last few weeks. When the police moved in, trying to beat the protesters into submission, the bitcoin didn't budge a bit. Okay, so Putin and the Ukraine President What's-his-face got together (did you see the picture of the two men? Putin looks so dimunitive, almost dwarvish, next the Ukraine guy), and announced the bail out by Russia, it had no effect on the bitcoin price.

Well, we've seen 450(gox), as a deeper dive was too much downward pressure to be sustained, and investors wanted cheap coins; and, now we've bounced up to 750 (gox)-- just looking at it, we might even get another rounded top, at as high as 830, imo, and then continue our resumed reduction towards a bottom, which we have not found.

All of the previous adoption spikes (not bubbles, because they ended much higher than they started-- important difference) took longer to *unwind* in terms of time, than to *escalate*. QED, we've got a month or two more of this, and after the next big correction, most of that time will be a stagnant sideways crawl, as we begin to repressurize (slowly) in anticipation of big money, smart money, and increased transactions which are already slated for Q2-Q3 of 2014.

Targets: one more drop to 300 or 400, another bounce and then a languishing crawl back to the same bottom by end of winter (just in time for lover's day, here in the states!)

Lastly, this adoption spike (if you subscribe to the reasonable presumption that Bitcoin behaves similarly to a natural phenomenon, an S-curve pathway) has already factored in all of the news, new buyers, legislation, etc. Those who have been made aware of Bitcoin, and can do something about it, or have chosen to do something about it, have already acted. The pressure exceeded the natural price increase! We got a spike!  ;D

Edit: In full disclosure, I was full fiat for the last few days (a bear can smell these things), bought the dip at 490 (gox) and am now back to full fiat (749 gox). This 'luck' may color my perspective-- probably, I'm just a much better bear than bull.

Are you shorting on bitfinex, please? I'm asking around because it's rather shocking so few exchanges are offering both sides of the buy/sell. I mean, I get that we don't have derivatives, but so few houses offering shorts... ???

I'm thinking of bitfinex, FWIW, so would appreciate the confirmation or advice-- I have several accounts, but most of my stash is traded at gox (please also feel free to disabuse me of this error). Anyone, feel free to PM me.

:)