Bitcoin Forum

Bears only discussion please, please post elsewhere if you're bullish. Serious discussion only here.
 
I sold all my bitcoins last week as I pulled out of all my alts prior to this. I am certain bitcoin will fall lower, and it seems to want to go lower but somehow just keeps rebounding back. Every rebound has failed.

From what I notice there seems to be very little demand above $900's. Nobody seems to want to pay that much money for a bitcoin. We have super low volume and it seems most people are just sitting back and waiting.

Since I sold, it has already went lower and rebounded back like there times. Since I am bearish and think bitcoin got too ahead of itself, and is way too ahead of itself with all the china issues, I am sticking with my bet that it will go lower. Lets face the fact that $800 bitcoin is still a very high amount.

My other reason for bitcoin going lower is that major wales are not making money with the lack of demand above $800 and for them to make money they will let the price fall.

I ask fellow bears, if there are any out there and if there are any out there brave enough to post here, when do you think the price will start to show a significant fall, like staying in the 700's for at least a day.

How far of a fall are we looking at? Do you think we fall below $500's for example?

Or maybe you bears are bullish now, thinking we will just have sideways trading for a while at most, then the prices will start to rise again?

We did predict the last fall in our "bears only" thread that bitcoin would bottom out around $500-$600 and we were right. So I assume we will figure out what is going on here if enough of you offer your thoughts/insight.

I have my buy orders starting at $200 on btc-e

880

Its going down pretty low right now, maybe this will be the time it finally pops.

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

What if I don't know what the fuck will happen, but I am willing to entertain both bearish and bullish analysis?  Am I allowed to participate, or is this only for bears that are on the same caliber as the $10k in a month crowd?

Seriously, you sold everything?  I sure hope you are right.

How is somebody risking their money to support an investment "manipulation"?  Or is it "manipulation" only because it goes against your opinion?

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong.  What were your calls in September?

Wave C is indeed the primary bearish case to consider.  I would love to see us make it that low, but if we do go down, I will start buying anything below 650ish.

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:


Here's another dated Sept. 15th:



Indeed it seems Tzupy is at the very least consistent. From Sept. 27th


Sept. 28th:


Nov. 5th (I've left out about 40 other bearish posts):

Yeah, you're right, I'm just trying to make it more entertaining by alluding to some kind of market conspiracy. But really, with such low volume and the Jan 31 deadline looming, it doesn't make sense to me why buyers keep jumping in to prop up the price almost immediately every time it dips.

Tzupy isn't on trial here.  Even if he was, hewas new then and I have seen his analysis mature a bit.  Anyway, downward movement is possible from this point.  We would like to discuss how far such a move might extend if you don't mind.

Perhaps their available information, or their interpretation is different than yours.  Most people strive to act rationally most of the time, especially with money.  Follow your curiosity and you might just figure out why they are willing to put so much on the line.

Ok. But these echo chambers are ridiculous. While the Bulls are the loudest on this forum, they seem to enjoy a flexibility of mind that the bears on this forum don't. That is the example I was making of Tzupy.

My issue with bears is a mainly only THIS: many of them have a "value" that they think bitcoin is worth. And its arbitrary and its in their head. And they see the world through that "value".  And unless bitcoin fails, it can only end badly for someone like that.

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here.  Me included.  That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads.  I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance.  If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground.  The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading.  When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them.  We need less trolling and more education.  But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I hadn't noticed. Are we talking about "bears" or "perma bears"? The latter are not worth mentioning.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.

The latter started this thread. So, I would say that they are worth mentioning.

I wasn't around herein 2013, but I would think that some unexpected things happened in 2013 that were unpredictable that may have flawed his analysis.

 I have not done my research into this but supposedly the US Government more or less accepted bitcoins and did not ban it. I saw how the government shut down e-gold some years ago and I always thought bitcoin days are numbered if it got too big.

The other unexpected was the China government letting bitcoin get so popular there. I would never thought this would happen, and more or less it didn't happen for long.

These seem to be two big driving forces that really helped bitcoin in 2013. In 2011/2012 I would not have invested much money for fear the US government would shut it down.

Not that this is really on-topic but just saying that some bears analysis are flawed for some major events happening in 2013 that were largely unexpected.

I've seen it cycle a few times now.  Like I mentioned, bubbles pull in new users/traders until we saturate.  Then we do the "shake out the newbies" dance, which we are either in the middle or end of.  Sentiment (particularly on the forums) seems to me more like the middle than the end, meaning final capitulation is yet to come.  After capitulation, we will return to sanity/balance for a brief period.  It is always brief because bitcoin is amazing and eventually a new rally will kick off.

However, I haven't sold because I also acknowledge that at some point Bitcoin will outgrow our little echo chamber and at that point sentiment here won't mean much.  Also, I'm fairly content with my BTC holdings since they exceed my student loan debt and are my largest form of investment/savings.

Exactly, but I don't think this can last for long. I think by people trying to save the market will find out that is too costly to do so. I think each upwards swing will be less and less as it would be too much easy money if we keep going down to $800 and up to $900. People are expecting that so it probably won't happen.

Either way, I think anyone is crazy to be sitting on bitcoins right now. The risk of it falling lower is much greater than it rising. I think smart money will sit this one out, at least that is what I have done. If you see a noticeable increase in demand then you can buy back in.

Its as fair of an opinion as any. I think this rally really put owning large numbers of bitcoins out of the realm of possibility for a lot of people on here and that has also created a sentiment among many that they missed out.

There is 4x as many btc bids than asks on Gox. If the market at ANY moment fears, and I say "fear" because alot of that money just wants cheaper bitcoins, a bullish movement the market could go up very very fast. All it needs is for sentiment to change to bullish and people will be fighting to get back in at the best price.

You may have your "mini" capitulation, but its a risk.

I don't know why you think I have an agenda. I clearly stated my reasons for it going lower, I have also clearly stated that I cashed out all my bitcoins. I even labeled the post "bears only" clearly showing that it will be people posting about it going down. NO agenda, I am showing you where I put my money. Now I am genuinely curious where this market is going and curious about what other bears think.

In my last "bears only" thread when I asked about how low it will go, us bears came tot he conclusion that it would bottom out around $600 with a short drop into the $500's. That was the most popular answer to how low we would go and that is actually where it went. Bears were right 100%, not the bulls stating high prices and growth.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=368572.msg3942651#msg3942651

This is why I like to only have a bear only discussion because I feel bears are somehow smarter about the market and much more reasonable in their estimates.

I really don't know why you think I have an agenda here, I really just seek knowledge and will use that knowledge to base my decision on if I should put my money back into bitcoins or continue sitting out.

Here

I would love to do a survey about new investors into bitcoins. I would think that they would say, geez, bitcoins were always around $10 for the longest time and then it went up to $1200 and was never able to recover after some big drops. I would think new investors would not want to pay this much for a bitcoin, they would simply think the boat was missed. Just a bit speculative bubble and it is over.

I have been saying for a long time that bitcoin at these prices is such a huge risk and not worth the reward, basically take your money and put it into something else. It would take such a large increase in market cap for the price of bitcoins to even go up 10%. Actually a 2% increase in price right now would double the market cap from what it was in 2012. People don't like to look at these things but they are real and add up.

Now for the guys who are sitting on bitcoins from when they are dirt cheap, then it is not a big deal to sit on them and speculate with them. But if you have to take your hard earned money and buy a bitcoin for $800 each... then it is a completely different story.

This is why I don't see bitcoin going higher any time soon. I also don't see new people coming into the market at any significant level. I would say the price rose from a few wealthy individuals and possibly china had some influence.

Apparently you missed when he turned bull a little while back. :D It was short-lived, though.

My point was that neither perma bulls nor perma bears have "flexibility of mind." Bears do -- otherwise they wouldn't be bears. A perma bear is just a pig. Or a forum troll.

Good question. I don't use any of those sophisticated graphs and tools as if they worked then everybody would be rich. They probably have very little predictive power. If they worked you could just create a computer program to trade.

You just get a feel for the market and where it is headed, you take as much information as you can in and just make an educated guess. Kind of like intuition. You really do need to take into account as much information as possible to even being close to accurate. Sometimes I spend 5 to10 hours a day or more reading about bitcoins and watching the prices, listening to different people's opinions etc.

However, I always had a very good intelligence of taking in a lot of different information and being able to combine all that together and use it to make decisions. I noticed most other people seem to learn quicker but take in smaller amounts of information and are not able to use that information or combine it for any reasonable usefulness. Kind of like reading a book. I read a book much slower than other people but then I am able to make comparisons and use the information much better. Other people read much quicker but are not able to use what they learned. 

Why am I saying this, not everybody has the proper intelligence to make good market decisions, and you really can't use tools or graphs. The key to being even somewhat right is to take in as much information as possible from as many different sources as you can and hopefully have the proper intelligence to combine all this information together to help have predictive power. Very few people have this intelligence, but it may be more prominent on internet forums as it attracts more intelligent people. However, just because you write well doesn't mean jack.

Except
 

Fibonacci Retracement

Its like magic

This rally will be short lived and we should go down into the 700's from here, probably tomorrow it will happen.

The price had a little rally because some people think they can buy now and then make a quick buck selling at $900 like the last two mini rallies, I doubt it will happen again as nobody will buy their bitcoins at a higher price when they know the price will probably fall back down.

Anyone holding their bitcoins now are crazy not to sell them and sit with fiat right now. A rally is almost certain not to happen, and there is such a good chance of it going lower.

It seems someone doesn't understand the BEARS ONLY title, but since I was attacked, let's straighten the facts:

1) the capitulation (wave C bottom) of the previous bubble ended on the 5th July 2013, and the capitulation of this one is still to come.
Nothing wrong here, unless you count the bottom until the 7th July, when the new bubble started.
2) for September 2013, once the market hit 148$ on Gox on the 1st, 150$ was a ceiling that wasn't reached in that sub-wave.
3) the SR crash happened on the 2nd October, not the 3rd as I predicted, and the price went down to 110$ (85$ on Bitstamp), not 115$.
The bad SR news may have triggered it a bit early and stronger than 'normal'.

4) it wasn't corrective wave A, only corrective wave 2. Low volume before it made accurate timing difficult.
5) yes I was wrong, I couldn't believe that in 2013 there would be people willing to pay 1000$ for a bitcoin.

You could have done your homework better, I made some worse predictions than those.
But in the meantime I understood the distortions of the waves that made me misidentify the market's stages. And I had to think bigger.

This is the speculation forum, you can expect lots of people in here who just want to make money and couldn't care less what bitcoin stands for or is hoping to achieve. If you want sincerity this part of the forum is probably the worst place to look for it. I just see this as a form of entertainment while I pick up some valuable lessons about trading here and there. If you go outside and visit real life bitcoin conferences and meet-ups you will see the attitude is generally much more positive and sincere. :) I kinda hate to be addicted to this place myself really, but I just have this thing for charts, numbers and yelling choochoo to the moon when the price goes up. :P

I am a 'newb' as far as investing capital in Bitcoin goes with the sole intention of turning a fiat profit from it and you are right. $800 Bitcoins are far too steep for my liking, having said that, I shall buy around $15K worth when they hit $790, and then sell the lot when it touches $810.

When Bitcoin trends into sub $400 territory, then I think we may be back in a range where some long term Bitcoins can be bought and held. Right when Bitcoin was up at around $1100 mark, some dude made a post in this forum showing some kind of exponential chart which proved that Bitcoin always returned to the 'mean' after its meteoric rises and crashes. Right now that 'mean' should be around $350, having said that, it can also be expected that Bitcoin under shoot this mean, so going by this theory, sub $350 coins would be a great deal in the long term, although with Bitcoin, I think it is a safe statement to make 'that with Bitcoin, anything can happen'. Just as Bitcoin can shock people with how high it can go, at some point, it is going to shock us all with how low it can go.

BTC  4 digits RxIxP 01/2014

Nailed it perfectly.
I'l add that Good news is now not having much effect on the price while bad news sends price down immediately.
And i'm not talking about possible Black Swan events like Closing /Bankruptcy of MtGox

I get nervous when Stamp leads a plunge.  That tells me people are taking profits off the exchange.  Miners may be getting nervous and selling coins to cover expected utility costs over the next few months.  More adoption of Bitcoin is great, but this simply puts downward pressure on the price until people recharge.  I don't think people are recharging.  It's still a pain in the ass for regular folks to get Bitcoin.  Big barrier to entry.  Also, my hunch is the bulk of people transacting in Bitcoin at the moment have been around for > 6 months.  Buying new coins at these prices is mentally taxing.

The potential black swans you've mentioned are definitely casting a pall over the market.  China is unpredictable.  More attention is being given to the risks of mining centralization.

I am a bit puzzled that with all of the good news, the market still insists on sliding.  Also, the past two weekend pumps were bizarre.

Sounds like an oxymoron. Let's wallow in our narrow groupthink, exclude balanced debate, and call it "serious discussion".

LOL  :) ;) :D ;D hahaha

It's more like putting the blinders on.

http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/Cute-Chimpanzees1.jpg (http://s664.photobucket.com/user/JimboToronto/media/Cute-Chimpanzees1.jpg.html)

We have only seen the beginning of the end of the bulltrap. I´m seein 550$(Stamp) by Monday. Don´t try to catch fallin knifes when it is going to happen. :P

I think we will see the $500 range again, but don't sense anything about the charts or momentum to suggest that we are going to have a sudden plummet. A slow grind for the time being I reckon.

The first red circle was drawn around a phase right on the aftermath of a meteoric rise followed by the ultra bearish double top, and some pretty scary news coming out of China.

The second red circle is drawn around a phase occurring several weeks after a shocking crash, and a grinding recovery which ran out of steam just below a crucial support level, and is now grinding back down.

Two entirely different scenarios. I do think that Bitcoin is headed lower, I just don't think that we are going to wake up to an overnight 60% correction, at least not as things presently stand. Next stop is $680 - $720, followed by a bounce back up from there.

Nice try MatTheCat. I'm afraid it won't budge to where you want it to!

Oh sorry, have I just posted in a "bears only" discussion? Please excuse me!   :)

I have absolutely no skin in the game at the moment after my $260 dollar burning fiasco in trying to short Bitcoin at $813 on Bitfinex's retarded exchange interface.....I ended up shorting right enough, but then also using margin to go long on two counts that I thought were Stop Loss and and Stop Trade (take profit at certain level) orders.

But with no skin in the game, I don't actually care which direction Bitcoin goes, but I do want to be on the right side of the trade, whatever the direction.

Right now, I am sitting out cos right now, Bitcoin is going to trend. A bit down, but overall probably more up than down, but not enough up to make it worth my while going long. Next noteworthy movement is going to be a move down, of that I am certain. Hopefully when the time comes, I will be able to actually make a short trade on Bitfinex without emptying the contents of my wallet into the aether on the back of their retarded jambled up trading interface, but if it transpires that I am wrong in my bearish stance, then hopefully I will change my outlook timely enough to take advantage of the move.

I agree, there will probably not be any crash. It will be a slow grind downwards with many bull traps, and dead cat bounces. Kind of what we are seeing. These little rallies will be less profitable as we are seeing and will cause more people to stop participating in them.

When the prices start to get towards the low 700's and maybe breaking into the 600's, we may see a panic sell off.

I think what we are seeing now is the unsustainable price levels. What we probably have are a few wealthy speculators trading back and forth keeping the price higher than normal and also the reason for the recent rally to $1000. But these wealthy speculators will see less and less profits and might even start seeing losses. They may very well be cashing out slowly as they realize the demand is not there for prices higher than $1000.

The market already tried to rally a few times to go past $1000, but failed each time even with the really low volume.

Anyone not cashing out at least half of their bitcoins are taking on extreme risk. Better to cash out now and see where we are headed as the potential for bitcoins to go higher is very doubtful but the risks of it going much lower are very high right now. Simply put, the risk to reward by sitting on bitcoins is not in your favor. This basically means that the price is just too high right now.

I also do not see any major news event coming to save bitcoin. What I think is that the rise of bitcoin to these high price levels is the market pricing in far more growth than bitcoin will see. I don't see any better news coming out than has been out. Just a few days ago I read something on my cell phone about a venture capitalist seeing bitcoin at $100,000 a coin. Actually, every day I see some kind of news about bitcoin from the major media outlets. Even with all this news bitcoin still can't go over $1000.

I'm seeing a similar short-term drop. Longer-term is always a different story.

Take some money off of the table, if it is profit. Profit will always be profit even if the market moves 10x, 20x, 100x against you. Just don't sell all.

For a brief time, Bitcon was a legal way for people in China to get money out of yuan and into dollars or euros. China has rather severe restrictions on moving capital out of yuan. That made Bitcoin very useful in China. This drove a big run-up in Bitcoin prices.

That's over. There's a lot of denial about this on the forums, but the People's Bank of China has made their decision and is enforcing it. There's a lot of talk on the forums about "no one can stop Bitcoin" and such. They're missing the point. Bitcoin was, briefly, a safe, easy, and legal way to move capital out of China.  The PBC has taken away "safe, legal, and easy". It's not totally impossible for someone in China to buy Bitcoins and sell them outside China for dollars. But there's now a chance of getting caught. So the advantage of Bitcoin over other illegal and semi-legal approaches (taking cash to Singapore or Hong Kong, for example) has been lost.

Bitcoin really ought to slide down to back where it was pre-China, but may not go down that far.

It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.

Yes, because the only thing Bitcoin is useful for is "profits". :/

It's normal to expect a 'fallout', bitcoins from Chinese exchanges sold on western exchanges, but only when a downtrend will be quite obvious.
Considering that the flow of fiat into western exchanges has slowed down, this could temporarily cause a large drop in price.
In such a case, it looks like Bitstamp is going to experience the largest drop, because it's the main cashing-out exchange.

So is gold.

Sorry to say, and I don't mean to sound derogatory about your opinion, but bear or bull it really doesn't seem to me like you have a good grasp of the situation. Granted it is not easy to get a complete picture because Bitcoin is unlike any type of asset, currency, payment system or whatever that exists today (in fact it is like a multi-faceted mix of elements from them + ?), but boiling everything down in the way you have done is too cynical and not accurate, even if you believe it is more realistic in comparison with the views of the optimist crowd... ahem  ::)

lol its funny cuz nagle talks about losers

and salt, and rocks, and you name it ... but when you shift your view to the process it self ... you will know why people started to use one process instead another ...

bit off topic but as an analogy: in networking we already shift from point-to-point communication to distributed communication model. You don't do tcp over telephony anymore, you do telephony over tcp.

but what % of investors/traders do you think believe that? a fair amount i think.

...and everything else on this planet! When you buy one pizza, somebody just lost one pizza, so they are pizza losers dollar gainers. Continuing supply of pizzas is necessary to keep the pizza shop going. If people stop producing pizzas but continue eating pizzas that whole celebration will soon come to a halt, but I fail to see how is that an argument that a pizza shop is a bad business? *Every* market on earth promptly fails when supply goes to zero.

coinbase crimping instant buys from 10btc to 1 per week is a pretty big curb on demand side...  sure you can still do the 50/day delay buy but that is pretty risky unless there is a big drop in price which proves that taking away 90% of instant buy reduces the support potential

they had to do this since USD from the states got blocked from btc-e and we all know about gox..  

right now btc price can remain a hostage around 800 as long as the few power brokers want it that way.  And they probably will keep it around here as long as their algos can make gains from the 780-830 churn

coinbase would love it to stay in this range so they can fleece with their 1% fees and wide spreads and having the price stay stable to promote more use of btc as a currency

you never used them right? when you buy 50btc you fix the price at that instant moment you bought, you just can't sell right away. but works just fine for investing.

pure idiots can't tell they are idiots....  I am speaking of protecting a floor price..not a mindless 'stacker' like you (btc cheap at any price, right?)
  you buying at 820 with no hope of selling before a crash up to 5-7 days is hostage money for them.  and on the reverse, if btc runs up to a 920 spike, you can't participate in those gains if it slides back down on the churn before you get your btc.

Why do you keep trying to just put your one way mentality into other points?

That I will agree on easily, seeing as you try to use coinbase for daytrading. However, you said something about "demand side" earlier, which daytraders don't contribute anything to as they cancel out their contribution. Coinbase buyers, on the other hand, do contribute a lot, and they don't really care whether coins arrive today or a week later, because they are not going to sell for a 80$ "profit".

actually i have a feeling this is not true. coinbase is the easiest way for US people to buy coins -- i am confident that some of them will take these coins and try their hand at trading. that's the first thing i did as a newb. and it seems from trollbox talk that this is to some extent true (people also trade elsewhere and then cash out on coinbase)

Wow. Listen, I had the gun in my hand, the suicide note laid out, Britney Spear's latest CD playing full blast in case my nerve faltered at the last second, and I got an unexplained desire to live..... then I saw your post. You mean I'm NOT the only person in the world to actually realise why the market is not going in any direction? You mean there's someone on this forum that has actually figure this out? Wow. Just W-O-W!!!. I expected this forum to be full of angry posts on why bitcoin profiting is now essentially non-existent and how we were all going to find these wealthy SOBs.

Good job Eddie. You saved me from blowing my brains out from frustration. :D

I expect to see a lot more of these posts. And the location of the pub these wealthy assholes hang out on Fridays. We really need to do something about these SOBs! >:(

(Good job, good job. Wow. Someone actually woke up. Wow. Just wow.)

Bitcoin is going to pop soon!

If Chinese volume (+/- 7 billion) disappears, we will head back towards $80-$150 per bitcoin! SUCH CHEAP!

No problem,at that price you will be lucky to snap any up ,too many buyers

 the price will rocket straight back up to a reasonable price, best set your orders now if that's your thinking

doom on,doom off ,blink and you'll miss it ;D

Let's see how my prediction of the 17th January turned out:

It took much longer than I expected, mostly because of the low volume.
In the meantime, on Gox those players cashing out via Bitcoins caused the fools' rally of January 25th, and then depressed the price on Bitstamp and BTC-E.
But now my prediction came reasonably close to reality, only Bitstamp looks now more bullish than I expected. But the drop to 102$ on BTC-E was epic!
I am not sure if this is the bottom of the first 1 / 3 of wave C, so I'm not trading, because just one whale dump could overrun my positions badly.

u do realize the drop was because fud? meaning that ur TA was pretty much useless and u were only lucky

Young padawan, you have much to learn. During wave C the market experiences more bad news than good news, and digests them poorly.
My guesstimate was based on the drop to 455$ in December 2013, adjusted by the amount of new fiat that entered the exchanges.
On Bitstamp, in the meantime, more fiat entered than on Gox, and the extra coins from Gox were absorbed, so it didn't drop as much yet.