Bitcoin Forum

Just like the title says: Did we hit the bottom yet? Or will the downtrend continue?

https://i.imgur.com/3BuFFCC.png

I'm trying to get a feel for whether people are bullish or bearish. The poll will run for 10 days and people can change their vote. :)

No, it has got more to go low. To my knowledge it is predicted to reach as low as $3300 before the next price bumping. Maybe this could go below to that as market isn't that stable. Market recovery is much expected for the moment, but to what extent this gonna happen in reality is unpredictable.

Maybe. Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that might not come anymore. Why? Because everyone has already sold what they needed sell. They now maybe have bids on $2500 - $3000.

I believe the market will adjust soon, and those bids will slowly go up.

I think we’ve reached the bottom, this is the longest downtrend from an ATH in bitcoin’s short lifespan. I think we’ll be stuck in this period of sideways for some time but we’ll start to rise mid 2019. Prediction for the price by the end of 2019 - $6,500.

There are already some signs of stabilization, so I think Bitcoin's price should not fall below $3000.
I think that weak hands sold already everything they had, so whales will not be able to create panic sell anymore. Fluctuations will be small and now the charts will be in the side tunnel.

I agree, hopefully all the weak hands have been flushed out following the catastrophic drop from the ATH. Now is time to buy & increase your hoard before market sentiment turns bullish.

It's already gone below $3200.

I don't think we're done myself. We're not far above the low and I don't see much will out there to resist a concerted dumpathon. I'd vastly prefer to get it over and done with a classic v bottom type thing than dick around doing not very much.

Beeing in longest bear market since ever in bitcoin history means nothing.


To OP - we just broke 6k support and drop instantly to 3k. After breaking 6k support we  should see at liest restest of this levels is short time. But we didnt. Price dropped down to 3k where it stops (without significant bounce). It means that market is weaker that it should and it was holded above 6k support by price manipulation. It wont turn to bearis by magic stick. It needs strong news or build middle term walue close to 3k support what will take at liest half year staying in 3-4,5k range. Or break 3k support and find stronger one closer to 2k or 1k.  Also 1 bored whale with tones of money can push price to 20k tommorow :) - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4460964.msg39964620#msg39964620

I don't see any buy strength here. Price stopped not because there were buyers who bought all supply and pushed price up. Price stopped because its temporary too cheap to sell or its better for whales to stop at this point to show that 3k is strong to get extra demand without pushing price to lower levels. Like at 6k support. When volume will continue to drop it will mean that there are no more buyers believing in strength of 3k and we will drop lower.

I think so. I mean there is of course a chance of going even further down if something unexpected happens, it all depends on the whales and if just a single whale with a lot of coins come out today and sell a bunch of bitcoin than the price will see another bottom however unless something that big happens we are not going to see anything under 3200 ever again.

If we move up from here than I am sure we will not see anything under 3200 ever in history as well, it all depends on the movement from now on, its fragile, if we manage to get a hype and bull run than the bottom was 3200 and that's it, if we do not get that bull run than we are still on the thin line of going down any second because of a whale. We need that bull run because if we have it than even a whale selling would drop us to a place that is above this price.

One year before few hundred bucs on the price changes makes nothing but now it is making huge decision making movement among the investors.We already hit the bottom the prices may fall below more few hundred bucks but not too much so be ready for the next bump and buy it now without considering about those hundreds in difference.

If we already hit the bottom do you think the price will not fall again? I hope after we hit the bottom price of bitcoin there will be a uprising price. Every people here in forum have different prediction about the price of bitcoin but for me I will become happy if the price of bitcoin will start increase in the second quarter of this year.

By a couple of my EW possible counts, we have not yet seen the final bottom. However, the final 5s of bitcoin corrections tend to get truncated, so...
As for weekly MACD, it forms a bearish double bottom (bearish divergence), so until I'll see a bullish one, I will doubt that we already saw the final bottom.

Why missed two digit. ;D

It is very difficult to say if we have hit the bottom and I think it is also very difficult to find out were the bottom is as this market is highly unpredictable.  In my own opinion the bottom is still far away and we can actually make it in the next bullish market if we can buy at the right time.

waiting bottom or cheap btc?
i hope you can't buy under 5000
remember  when price trade over 10000 per btc
by the way price in july will be 7000 ---- 9000 usd per btc
thank you

I find that a very difficult question to answer. I sincerely hope that the bottom is in, but I'm not taking anything that happens in the short term lightly, because the short term doesn't reflect fundamentals.

The only thing that matters for me is that long term speaking, we're set, and that's what I am focusing on. If we happen to make even lower lows, then so be it, the market has already been turned into a mess.

I rather see a brutal bottom now we're potentially at the deepest point of the bear market than having the market bottom out at a far later point, because that will piss off people even more.

Many people said that the bottom was at 6k.
Now there are a lot of people that we have already hit the bottom around 3.5k but I don't agree with that. As we are facing a stagnant market at around that price we are imminent of a risk of dropping more. I believe the actual bottom right now is around 1.7k and if the market will not rise during Q1 we are very close to see this new bottom in the future.

For the current market, yes, we could have hit the bottom, the price held up above $3100 amd rose from there upwards.rhe value can of course always fall below any threshold, for the short term, it should stay above $3000, considering mining difficulty.

I think yes, the price almost reach the bottom, and i think we will not see much lower than 3000$ for a bitcoin, and also most coins are still in low price and we will need some times for a grow, maybe a grow will start after Bakkt.

I think that it is very possible for bitcoin to go down further.

Prices in the short term are often unpredictable, and due to that fact, dips in the short term is completely expected even when prices are this low. But I think that based on bitcoin's historical bear markets and factors such as market attitude, we are extremely close to the bottom at the moment even if we are not fully there yet.

It would be absurd to pass up this buying opportunity because of the fact that this may not be the absolute bottom. Dollar cost averaging should be used at its full scale if you do have funds that you want to invest into bitcoin for the long term with. I've expected bitcoin to bottom out at $3-4k since last year, and there is no reason in my opinion for that expectation to change at the moment.

this is a big factor in my own analysis. i've never seen an asset with so many truncated fifths/failed C waves, particular to the downside. it can be dangerous to get caught in the "one more dip" mindset.


agreed, i'd like to see a bullish divergence on the weekly MACD histogram, similar to the january 2015 bottom. it's not required, but it would definitely give me more confidence.

this was the main theme of December last year and it was said that we would see the $2000 to $1000. and then the price rose above $4000 and started to say that we would be rising to $6000. and the price dropped again and we returned to the old theme: "where is the bottom?"


may be we never see $10,000 again, the fact is that nothing guarantees that the price will rise again

$2500 and further down, $1800 are in the talks currently as shorts are trying to make more on leveraged money. Recently, you must have noticed that CBOE withdrew its VanEck/SolidX ETF application due to a rule change but nothing affected the markets as they promised to come back with a properly framed and an abide-by-rule ETF and they kept their promise which made BTC remain stable. I see no hard moves currently for the next 2 - 3 months (as I don't think Bakkt will launch till then) and BTC must remain stable (or sideways in my words) in order to stay safe from those harsh "bottoms" which could be very hazardous to the whole crypto economy as the selling pressure here will end up pressurizing investors to fetch out their money out of alts as well. Still, IMHO BTC's current value of $3.4k is definitely undervalued and it should be at least $6k to remain the most profitable and dominant crypto.

Not bad so far! Out of 27 votes, nearly two thirds are bearish and are expecting new lows. I bet if you asked this question while we were trading in the $6,000s the results would be turned upside down (or more).

I'm torn. I'd expect new lows maybe 60% of the time, to put a number on it. The closest fractal I can think of is ~end of October 2014 but history doesn't usually repeat itself exactly.

I voted for no in the poll, since the price is slightly stable in the last couple of months. I have a feeling that there will be another bloodbath similar to what we've seen last year when the price stayed at the $6k for quite a while then it cracked down to where we are atm. Expecting this downtrend to continue until the next halving event.

Umm, the January 2015 MACD showed a mild bearish divergence, not bullish. By comparison, right now we have a strong bearish divergence. IMO a mild bearish divergence favors truncation, while a strong one does not.
The strong indicator of the ending of the bear market was the October 2015 weekly MACD cross into positive, IMO now we'll have to wait a long time for that.

https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitfinexUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=180&i=Weekly&c=1&s=2013-11-07&e=2015-11-07&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=B&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=CCI&i2=MACD&i3=MFI&i4=StochRSI&v=0&cv=0&ps=1&l=0&p=0&

i don't use the MACD signal line, just the histogram. the histogram showed a strong bullish divergence, as seen here---
https://i.imgur.com/sn7vPmZ.png


what do you mean when you say "bearish divergence"? that's usually a term that compares highs, not lows.
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/divergence-cheat-sheet

I also believe that we hit the bottom already.

However, it seems like most of us are not yet convince about it because the poll results is different, most voters still believe
that we will have a lower price than the current, I know it's possible so if in case that will happen, we should be strong to hold.

If the "hash war" did not happen between Bitcoin Cash ABC and SV, would there be a possibility of a crash from $6000 to $3000? I don't think there would be. Because, that "crash" was caused mainly by both the ABC, and SV camps, selling their Bitcoins to fund mining at a loss in their "hash war drama".

I have being of the firm believer that it is almost near the bottom and people who have being waiting to buy when price crops should ideally be start buying now rater than it becomes too late and prices set to rise sky high as this opportunity not every time you will have it to buy at such low prices.

Why do you think so? Any blockchain evidence for that?

Across the world, many hundreds of thousands of coins were sold. I didn't see any Satoshi coins moving, so I'm pretty sure the Bcash guys were only a small fraction of all the selling. A simpler explanation: demand near $6K was getting really weak and could no longer absorb market supply.

Maybe their little war was the straw that broke the camel's back, but that's all.

Somehow, it doesn't feel plausible. I'm inclined to think that both camps were mostly busy selling wolf tickets (i.e. throwing empty threats at each other). Otherwise, we would see a lot of more action like direct attacks against the opposing chain, but nothing like that had in fact happened. If anything, the hash war was only a trigger, while the crash of Bitcoin was kinda set in stone beforehand (read, it would have happened even without the Bitcoin Cash controversy). Regarding the poll, herewith I report that I didn't vote as I don't know whether we bottomed or not yet

I stand for volatility, not so much for bottoms or tops (still better bottomless and topless)

If you look at the charts, there was clearly a descending triangle visible that we respected in both the up and down direction. I personally thought it would break to the up side due to how Bitcoin tends to pump around October/November, but not this time. Down it went.

The amount of stop losses that were parked below $6000 must have been insane, and ultimately resulting in a brutal selloff with how bots instantly pull their buy orders further exaggerating the dump due to the lack of liquidity on the buy side.

Regarding OP; I do believe that there is a pretty decent chance that we're very near the bottom. If we follow the bottoming process in 2015, one should expect the 200 wma to be something we'll be dealing with for a couple of more months. Closing below the 200 wma will become a problem, but we're not at that stage and I don't expect it to happen.

The bottom was $3,200+ and now we are at $3,500+ so it's a big improvement.
Probably we will not go back to that level, you know when price hits lower than $3,000 a big panic might occur, and we don't want that.

i think you are asking a wrong question then. and there are a lot of things to consider about their answers. for example there are a lot of people who are waiting for the price to go lower so that they can buy, not that they would buy if it were to drop. and they are always waiting not just now, they were also waiting for it to drop when it was rising all through 2017.
that doesn't mean they are bullish or bearish though! it just means they are expressing their wishes.

and as for whether we have hit the bottom or not, i'd say we have but "bottom" in my opinion is not a fixed price. bottom is where the downtrend officially ended and accumulation began. price can go lower than that price but that doesn't change the fact that we have hit the bottom. take 2015 for example. price hit the bottom at $220-$250 and accumulation was happening. that was the "bottom" but the price fell below that mark and even reached $150 but that didn't change the fact that $220-$250 was the bottom.

You are twisting the meaning of the term

Of course, no one can take that right from you as this is a free forum after all. But then you run the risk of being misunderstood as for most people, me included, the bottom is the lowest price, as simple as it gets. And what adds more insult to injury here, this price rarely resembles a "bottom" (like a seabed), it is more like an abyss, with a long red stick followed by an almost instant rebound. That's likely the reason why you don't feel quite right and don't sit well with this definition of a price bottom

None. Maybe I should have posted "in theory".

But you have to question the timing of the "hash war", and the crash. Was it merely coincidence? The what would the real reason for the crash be?


Satoshi's coins have nothing to do with the hash war, maybe unless if you believe Craig Wright is Satoshi. But there are other big whales that support ABC and SV.


But would it have been also possible for "Roger Ver and friends" to dump Bitcoins to support Bitcoin Cash ABC both on the market and costs of mining? The same with "Calvin Ayre and friends" on SV.

The theory isn't that unrealistic in my opinion.


Maybe. But if it was the trigger, then it would be harder to do the guess-work if the crash would have happened or not, with or without the so-called hash war.

It's not necessarily so

You should just try to think a little out of the box. If the price was actually caused by a massive dump of bitcoins by either or both Bitcoin Cash camps, which seems to be your point, we would see massive rebounds as soon as the selling pressure was removed. But that's not the case as we are stagnating pretty much in the same way as we had been 3 months ago before they started the war

Okay, you can say that they are still selling bitcoins to support the price of their chains (keeping Bitcoin's price from rising whenever there is a hint at this) and the pressure is still on. But in that case what does it have to do with these "hash wars" at all? And how is that particularly different from any other coin being supported by its users via selling something else to prop up the price of that coin?

like the peak of a bubble, the low of a bottom is impossible to predict.

this means by the time bitcoin price went from $9k to $15k in ~15 days, it was already in the bubble but you could not say whether it is the "top" or not. we eventually figured that the "top" is at $19900 or $20k if you round it up.
now is exactly the same. price has dropped and has reached the end of the drop but you can never say where the "bottom" is. we are already at the bottom but price may or may not go any lower.

with that said I think there is no point in asking this question because you are basically asking people to make a guess on something they CAN NOT predict.

We might or we might not have. We will only know in hindsight.

Basically people were assuming $6K (or $5800) was the low during 2018 before it broke in November 2018.

The issue with the $6K as support was that on the weekly it failed to make higher highs and higher lows, basically every bounce ended up being a lower high.

We need the complete opposite now, we "might" of had a higher low recently at $3300 but we need to close higher than $4200 or $4400 on the daily chart, and we need those to act as support. Until this happens we run the risk of breaking $3100 support.

The point is to gauge whether people are holding or not. If they're bullish, then they're probably holding. And if everyone has already bought, then we have nowhere to go but down. On the flip side, if everyone is bearish, they're either waiting to buy or they're short = strong buying demand.

It's the same idea as studying the commitment of traders. High shorts = bullish, because shorts closing = buying. High longs = bearish, because longs closing = selling. When the market is heavily long or heavily short, it usually pays to be a contrarian.

Urgency.

When the fork started, ABC and SV were both threatened by each other that one would attack the other chain. The whales of both camps had to urgently dump Bitcoins to spend on hashing power, to support the ABC and SV market, and to continue mining them at a loss.

actually the $6000 was a pretty strong bottom at the time and the highs and lows were meaningless because they were all the same after the actual drop ended.
what is even more important is that if the BCH drama didn't occur, we would have never seen anything below $6k ever.

Obviously, I referred to what we see now

Not what they had to do at the moment of the fork if they had to do anything at all other than promising to unleash hell on the heads of their foes. And don't forget that the fork had been planned long ago and threats were thrown before it. All things considered, it would have made sense to prepare beforehand, i.e. sell bitcoins when Bitcoin was still high, not at the last moment

With that said, however, there is no strong evidence that would exclude the possibility of Bitcoin Cash supporters massively selling bitcoins to support ABC and SV blockchains, and some certainly did just that, while others might have been just looking to make quick profits. But the question still remains, i.e. how much of the recent Bitcoin crash was actually due to this showdown. Personally, I don't think that much

This is hard to tell because price could always go lower. I rember when in 2018 price went below 6000$ many said that was the bottom but obviously the price has fallen even lower. But I don't think that the price drop stronlgy depended on Bitcoin cash like some here have indicated.
At this moment every prediction about the price is pure guessing so there is no use in it.

6 grand felt like no man's land to me.

On the way up 3 grand was really the only truly sticky area to get through so it makes sense that it would return to there and possibly not go below it.

I don't think it was anything to do with the Bcashes. It was going to happen regardless.

December 15th, 2018 was the bottom of this one.....so far.

I think it could drop some more, perhaps this year will be the most boring year so far. Who knows?
Can we get some worldnews for a new hype? Someone?

217 views but only 38 voted... Still not enough votes to represent 0.1% of the users (at least here in speculation board).

There's nothing new at the moment, no updates, no "issues" and obviously,
there are no Hype-drivers for the overall crypto price (Bitcoin as the reference price) for that to be the bottom.
Wall Observer seemed inclined to lower price-range too.

BTW, I voted for "No".

No one can really predict if we have reached the bottom yet as the market is still bearish and it is very difficult to be able to know if there is not going to be a continuous in the bearish directions.

then why did the drop happen during the Bcash fork?

it can't be a coincidence that they spread a lot of FUD about bitcoin, then spread the fear that a large amount of bitcoin (i think 1 million was the bullshit claim) is going to be dumped on bitcoin market to use the money to buy BSV and pump it. then the bitcoin price drops as the whales take advantage of the circulating fear to short bitcoin and make money.

i say without bcash price would have never dropped no matter how much whales tried because the market was pretty solid and the support at $6k was very strong. it was tested at least a dozen times and could not be broken.

There are a few gaps in your reasoning

If support was so strong as you say and the price never dropped below 6k no matter how hard the whales tried, then why did we fall so heavy, actually 2 times? Isn't it a bit too much for just fear mongering? Further, if it were whales shorting bitcoins, then we should have expected a strong rebound after these shorts got closed, right? But this didn't happen and we didn't rise substantially above 4k ever since

And last but not least, if this fall was due to Bitcoin Cash controversy, we should be seeing extreme volatility now, but this is not the case. In other words, price behaves as if it truly belongs to the current range for the time being, and that gives you plenty of room for doubt regarding how much the Bitcoin Cash apocalypse is actually involved in all this

It was looking for a trigger?

I don't see how spurious claims and a bit of Calvin's dumping could do this unless it's the range it was heading for anyway. If enough people believed 6 grand was the right price they would've gulped up all dump attempts and it would have floated back up there.

this x1000.

consider the flip side. during bubble times, bears attempt to trigger selloffs with big market dumps all the time. the market usually just absorbs the selling and pumps right back to the highs. if the BCH/SV split happened during the 2017 bubble, price obviously would have kept pumping.

in a bear market, demand is so weak that a wee little dump from calvin ayre might even move the market. that's a function of weak demand, not the BCH/SV split. when the bottom keeps falling out during a long term bear, people are extremely quick to selloff.

Something always felt wrong about the $6K bottom. "No man's land" describes it well. I always thought it was an odd stopping point, and was constantly worried in 2018 that we needed to test actual historical support like $3K. Now that we have, it seems silly to blame BCH or anything else for the crash. This is just what happens in bear markets. When supply is strong and demand is weak, the market will find a reason to crash.

Probably the downtrend will continue until it finds the deepest bottom and that's it a full reversal will going to happen and we will be seeing the bull run again on that day. But as for now, we will just have to wait and see on when it will go to start. A lot of people keep asking whether there is a bull market this year without considering the fact that a reversal has just started.

Do you have a target in your mind on what is going to be the bottom price?

I'd love to know and your analysis as well, because it's opposite on what I believe, but I always appreciate people giving honest prediction.
After all now one sees the future so we will only know if we are right or wrong when time will come.

What does a low bottom mean, if there's something like that one can come up with a prediction that the price will go as low as the starting price of bitcoin. In this regard I doesn't have a low bottom line for the value of bitcoin. It is good to move according to the market, rather than just thinking about its low bottom.

It is really hard to tell the market movement that even the experts in the field crypto are now losing their reputations due to their predictions did not happen as desired by last year because of this bearish market which is still in effect right now. Hopefully that Bitcoin already hit the bottom of below $4,000 that sooner or later the bullish market will start so that the price will bounced back.

But they had to do something. The whales of both sides were losing by mining their forks, when it would have been the right move to mine profitably in the Bitcoin network.

There was also the threat of the two dumping on each other's faces.


I believe the threats of Craig Wright were not taken seriously until the fork started. When he forked to SV, it's when everyone saw he was serious. That time has never been more urgent for both ABC and SV.


True, but it's fun to discuss. Plus the timing of it all is "too perfect" to not consider that possbility.

Tinfoil hats on. Hahaha.

People often confuse cause and effect

Apart from that, if the beginning of the hash war was a trigger (which seems to be a prevailing opinion here and which I personally endorse and stick to myself), it should be "too perfect" by definition. But it doesn't in the least mean that without this particular trigger the price wouldn't crash sooner or later. In such situations anything can be a trigger, and the longer the system remains in this quasi-stable state, the more sensitive it becomes to external disturbances, however small they might be (let's call it the butterfly effect)

Yeah I am not at all convinced there is gonna be some capitulation event and giant bounce forming a V that shows clearly the bottom is in....because we already saw the capitulation event: the 50% drop from $6000s to $3000s!! I don't know why people ignore that! Just because it didn't have a bounce up to form a V doesn't mean that wasn't capitulation. It suddenly dropped by 50% after forming a bottom over the course of like 10 months last year. If that's not capitulation I don't know what is.

I certainly think there's a chance Bitcoin will go lower and break $3000 at some time in the next few months, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the $3100s it hit in December was the bottom. It dropped from $6000s to mid-3000s, bounced up to low 4000s ("V"), sank to $3100s, bounced back up to low $4000s, and now is chillin' at mid-3000s. Seems to me we've clearly seen the capitulation and now we're scrapping along the bottom for a bunch of months just like in 2015.

I expect this 3000s range to hold (occasionally in the 4000s, perhaps at some point hitting 2000s as well) until summer or fall until people have accumulated enough so that supply is finally running short and enough people have gotten tired of waiting for it to drop to $1000 or whatever and they start picking it up while they can and price starts to rise naturally. Make no mistake there are plenty of people accumulating lots of Bitcoin right now as short sellers sell to them hoping that the price will drop significantly further (which it probably never will considering the current price is about at the normal bitcoin crash percentage). This process is when Bitcoin shifts from the tens of millions to the few, as the smart people with money accumulate as much as they can while the price is low...and then sell to the 10s or 100s of millions who will come piling into Bitcoin over the next 2 or 3 years, but selling to them at 20 times the price!

I think it got the chance to go lower again, see from the market enthusiasm the Bitcoin is still not doing very good, and with a long and endless bear market the investors is a bit hesitate to enter the market, so I believe for the short term there will be another falling

We weren't scraping along the bottom in 2015. After the capitulation low at $150 in 2015, we spent the next 8 months ranging between $210 and $320. The bottom of the range was 40% above the actual "bottom." This time, we're sloshing around less than 10% from the bottom. Buying power is much, much weaker this time around.

I think it's possible the bottom is in but the technical signs aren't there.

Because it doesn't feel that way

The drop from 6k to 3k was very much like the other price drops before this one. For example, we first fell from 12k (which was considered a true bottom after the 20k top by many "distinguished analysts" here), then we fell from 9k to 6k. And the last fall felt very much the same as the previous falls did, so don't really expect people to think of it as a capitulation event even if it is


Basically, you don't know. But don't worry, no one knows for sure, either

i don't ignore it, i just think we have very different definitions of capitulation. to me it doesn't just mean a 50% crash in price. it means a high volume selling climax followed by a strong reversal (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp)---


we didn't see a high volume bottom. the december bounce came out of a low volume sideways. there's no hammer candle or even a wick on the weekly chart. in order to say capitulation occurred, we'd have to use a different and more vague definition.

Maybe, but it's debatable, because no one knows 100% what might have been, or might not have been, with or without the "cause" of what might happen. Plus it's also a possibility that $6000 could have been the "bottom" too in my opinion.

It's hard to say but $6,000 could've been the bottom if it wasn't for Kobyashi dumping the GOX coins on the open market as opposed to doing it OTC through Kraken and the hash wars.

After 50 votes, it's a pretty close call. 52% say we haven't hit the bottom; 48% say we have. I voted no.

Anyone else? 5 days of voting left.

The only detail that's popped up is that money moved from that Bitpoint place to Mr Thingy's coffers.

I've never heard of Bitpoint before and can find no mention of it or its volume on any Coinmarketcap-esque sites.

It's possible they were contracted to handle some sort of OTC sale. If he wanted to do a market sale it looks like the least likely option for someone in Japan.

If that was the case, the market would have rebounded in a more convincing manner, but it didn't. It was likely too tempting for whales to open massive shorts, trigger stops below $6000 and count profits.

$6000 was hyped up badly, where people, even a number of legendary members here believed that $6000 was the bottom because of how miners need that level to not lose money. In other words, a break-even point.

We have clearly seen that the hashrate dropped and the difficulty as result of that as well. I am sure that at $6000 large farms were still 50% in profits. It was the media that hyped it up....

I hope the bottom is in, but we could actually still go lower, there is no way of being sure...
There is not a lot of buying activity --> if you are buying now 1 BTC is still expensive compared to 2015
And selling at these prices, well who wants to sell at these prices really...

But comparing 2015 capitulation with current market conditions looks wrong to me, it's an entirely different market.

Probably because since this bear trend occur and the valued nose dive around 3k the pattern of the market become very stagnant and had no progress until now. But for me i still have doubts on this circumstanc.e because there's always sudden fluctuation of the growth rate nowadays. which is in my view  perhaps  there's a tends again that it will make a small dump. .  I hope it will never go further if that times happen.  

in this kind of market that the price are playing around 3400$ for a long period of time, I guess this is already the bottom of the bearish market but we dont know when we will experience again the bull market.

Well it seems that people are divided as well pretty evenly based on the votes lol. The most recent low was at 3.1k and i think we have a fair chance of touching that again or even going sub 3k. But for me it's accumulation time anyways so regardless, it'll just provide good opportunity to buy in cheap for the long run.

 ;D

we cant exactly tell when will we gonna hit the bottom.
the game is not over yet. though we are in the green market for the past few hours, its not enough to conclude that we are out of the dip

true, but the recent surge proved once again that asking this types of questions to get the feeling of what investors are thinking is always going to give you false information. investors in bitcoin market are always either greedy or panicking and they change their direction in a blinking of an eye if they see the market moving in a different direction.
in this surge we saw a very small example of how the FOMO buy is going to look like so it doesn't matter if they think we haven't hit the bottom, as soon as the rise begins they do a FOMO and price can shoot up to $10k!!!

27 people voted "yes" and 28(including me) voted "no". :(
I guess that nobody knows what will happen with the market.The bottom is coming on the horizon,but the ATH will come again(after 2 or maybe 3 years).

That's not necessarily so

And while it certainly sounds plausible, if we take a closer look at bigger timeframes, it doesn't always work like that (it may not even look like that in the recent surge). For example, if people have been suffering heavy losses for long months (say, since January 2018), they may be inclined to sell at these surges and call it a day for good, not buy more. Maybe, this is the next step in the development of a typical long-term bagholder who is so tired of waiting that he doesn't care anymore and wants to drop his bags at the next stop, so to speak

It seems to me that bitcoin hit the bottom in December and it is now in a recovering face of the trading circle.  Those that are waiting for bitcoin to fall below $3000 maybe kick out of the next bull run.  If bitcoin fall below $3000 it means dead to me and bitcoin too good to be abandoned.  For those that really want to makes money now should be the good to invest in bitcoin and others cryptocurrencies market. 2019 just looked like 2016 to me and those that buy in 2016 are the really people that make good profits in 2017.

Is still unsure where it can go from now. There will be more selling just when it touch $3800. If the price weren't stable yet. Maybe it can drop back again to $3200 abd stay for a long time before moving up. It can even dip to $2500 as what I have read in some reddit pages.

tbh theres no benefit of asking this question to the community. everyone knows that there's no concrete answer to this.
everything is just speculation. and it will not make difference in any way. maybe just to get how the community feels towards this idea.

that is definitely what is going to happen when the rise starts. that is why the initial rises are always slower and with a lot of tracebacks. because there are a lot of people who are still in the previous trend's mentality and think it is still bear market and they have to sell.

BUT that is not what i am talking about. i am talking about the total market, as in the sum of forces, some sell, some buy. during the FOMO times when people see the rise, there will be more buying than those who sell hence the overall sharp rise.
what we had recently was just a small taste of what we are going to have in the future.

Time to be bias, disregard any prediction that says bitcoin is going to hit below $3,000 and $2,500 is already a very cheap price
I can't stand watching it. I think things will change from now on since people started to think that ETF can be approve soon, that drives the market up IMO.

Well, I don't think this is an honest approach

That is, you first stipulate here comes FOMO and then proceed to state that you are talking about the sum of market forces. Indeed, in this particular case (when FOMO has already got the market going), it will be like you describe. But if we consider the situation (like this one) when there is no actual FOMO (yet), we can expect things to develop according to my scenario

Other than that, I agree that a legitimate bull run starts slow. But that's because prices have been either falling or stagnating for some time before that. Thus, plenty of resistance walls have been erected which should be crushed first before the price can start rising in earnest

The price can always go lower than its current level, but we need to ask how many weak hands remaing in the market? Even if there are some poeple that will sell their coins because of specific needs I do not see a huge number of people still holding their coins ready to sell them, those people are already out of the market so most of those that remain will not sell just because the price moves down a little bit, so to me chances of seeing a price that goes much lower than the current levels are not very high.

I don't think either there are many weak hands left in the market

Which we can clearly see in stagnating prices and low trading volumes (read, there is as little supply as demand). But we still should not dismiss lightly the possibility of just one big whale selling out like it happened in the first half of 2018 (in January and February if I'm not mistaken) with Mt. Gox coins which were sold right into the market and crashed the prices massively. This is still possible, i.e. big chunks of coins being thrown into the market and bringing prices down at the end of the day

Or they have learned the thing called the HODL. 8)


It's possible. But I believe there would be less panic now than the first half of 2018. Any dip in this level would be a welcome sight for the bottom-feeding whales.

This is what happened in the past

Say, in early 2017 when there were two massive but rather short-lived corrections which turned out to be good entry points with fortunes made soon thereafter. But we are not taking into account that back in the day there was enough demand to drive prices up no matter what. Today this is no longer the case

So if we crash lower in the coming weeks or months (for example, to 2k), the rebound may be small and pathetic just like it was when the price had crashed from 6k to 3k. Technically, it was a postponed dead cat's bounce, and nothing in particular has changed since the last crash

Because Bitcoin was entering into a fully irrational bull mania, yes.


Would you agree that Bitcoin is in a phase the same as in 2015, which truly hit its bottom? That would be possible too.


But I believe the panic wouldn't be that great too. Which should be more important for holders, and bottom-feeders.

It is possible and I really hope it is so (as I'm net long on crypto myself)

But the market today doesn't look like it was in 2015. In fact, it is fundamentally different. Back then there was a lot of demand as well as supply which was a clear sign that the market was well alive (or well and alive). Today it looks like it is about to die. Technically, it is possible that speculation diminished greatly while real adoption expanded dramatically, so no bitcoin is hurt in trading but instead used for something real. But I don't think this is the case now

I believe the low of ~$3280 might remain the low for the year 2018 and 2019 and low for 2020 may be around $8k levels.

Yes, we are going to have up trend slowly ans the recent bull run up to $3600 levels is the proof for market may not break the low any more.

By any chance (like any sudden bad news similar to exchange hacks etc), we may break the $3000 levels too but definitely the day candle will not close with less than $3000 levels. So, we are into rising markets literally and sustaining above $4k levels may confirm this.

Hope surely wants that the current market situation is basic. But, in the crypto market, all we cannot predict and the market may decline again because until now many have said that the downtrend will continue. Besides that, seen from the graph of the crypto price movement especially bitcoin, the price movement cannot penetrate the bull run point wall.

The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.

It'll be a bull trap. I'll definitely be selling into signs of weakness. Even if the bottom is officially in, we have loads of resistance to work through that'll provide ample pullback for reentry. Anything in the upper $4,000s to lower $5,000s would be a good time to sell.

You are still fighting the last war

When you should arm yourself for the new one. And the new one will be fought in the land of altcoins with Bitcoin being stuck in the 3k-4k range for likely a very long time (as the ceiling is slowly going down). Technically, that's not a bad thing on its own as we will see more speculative money being poured into altcoins (and Litecoin seems to be the first to suck in that money). This time, Bitcoin may actually turn into a store of value (even though I can't fully accept this thought myself yet)

The more confident you get that Bitcoin will stay stuck in a tight range, the more confident I get that you're wrong. :)

I've been trading this market for 6 years. Never once has Bitcoin stayed stuck in a 25% range for very long. There's no historical evidence for that, so betting on it seems pretty dumb.

Actually, I've been telling the same thing for approximately that amount of time. Moreover, I never forget to specifically point out that the longer Bitcoin stays in a certain (tight) range, the stronger will the next breakout be. It is so even purely statistically, as with every passing day we come closer to an abrupt price change simply because such changes are a given (though intuitively many people are in fact inclined to think otherwise)

That's why I can't easily accept this thought myself, i.e. Bitcoin becoming a genuine store of value (in a big way)

that simply is never going to happen. that is just absurd.

the "store of value" campaign started a year ago when fees were extremely high and people wanted to deny the fact that bitcoin stopped being a currency because of the high fees and that is the only thing bitcoin is designed for.
so people are only going to ever buy bitcoin either as an investment to make profit or as a currency to enjoy the decentralization. nothing else matters.

Though the result has come already, but I would not agree with the result. Because I think we don't hit the bottom yet, Bitcoin price had to go under 3K USD! When Bitcoin price went to under 5K USD, I realized by following the chart that it needs under 3K USD to start bumping high again, and I am still confident with my analysis!

Well, I've made this curve right now, and maybe we really reached the bottom.

https://br.tradingview.com/i/6YwRGbed/

I would let my hopes high yet because we are in Q1 and there is more to come in another quarter. We just have to get ready ourselves if there is another bottom but i will be glad if this is the bottom already.

Do you guys think that Bitcoin would maintain this unstable $35xx to $36xx for the rest of the year then the bull run will start again?
Some say that 2020 is the year of bull run because of halving but even if there is halving already it wouldn't be so sure if the bull run would start already.

Well , it's just your predictions , right ? This graph looks plausible only at the time of its publication, but after a week it may seem just reflections of a naive person. Since we are sharing thoughts here, then I will post my own on this. This is how I see the graph in a month and a neatly drawn curve again tells us that "it is quite likely that this is the bottom"  ;D
https://i.postimg.cc/MMh6b2zP/stupid-predictions.png (https://postimg.cc/MMh6b2zP)

If anything, the "true" bottom was at 6k

This is to show how all these charts are utterly irrelevant and misleading, while all these predictions and projections are as baseless as they are clueless. The price is a random walk mostly. The things which matter in these circumstances are the overall trend (which is still bearish) and fundamental, long-term factors such as halving and slow but steady adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value and wealth transfer vehicle

One of the most sensible things i've read today ☝☝☝ i agree dude. Most predictions are just personal assumptions based on just how the person feels or thinks about the market situation. You can't really say you have solid basis for predicting the price's trajectory since it's usually moving in random.

I don't think we hit the bottom yet because as what so many expected that bitcoin's market price will not go under 5K$, and then everything seems to screw up when bitcoin indeed hit an all time low 3K$ now. We don't know if bitcoin can even reach below 3K& this year too.

  we are already at the bottom pal since the growth rate constantly decreasing on this current stage.wherein we are just now waiting for it to stabilize again but in my view  it's seems impossible to happen for now because market is still weak to regain value. 

Yes we already hit the bottom, dont you notice bitcoin is stable these past these and yesterday another rally has begun, this might  the road to 7000$ or even higher.

We might hit a small bulltrap enroute.
We have lots of people wanting to get out without losses so a lot will exit the train enroute to da m00n.

What I am saying is "caution" we are still not fully out of the woods, tread lightly.
I do have faith in Bitcoin going up again :)

The lowest price that reached of the bitcoin is enough and it's not good to see that again and the bottom of the bitcoin we hope this year will become only $5000. During the lowest value of the bitcoin last few weeks ago I think that happened that is the right time that you can do your role as crypto trader or as investor is to invest your money again to bitcoin or to invest. Better to maintain the market now and hope increasing is happen now.

Presumably the downtrend won't proceed herafter since the value recuperation previously began and this can be full inversion will going to occur and we will see the bull run again on tomorrow, Now almost bitcoin reaches 4000 USD.

Be that as it may, with respect to now, we will simply need to keep a watch out on when it will go to begin. Many individuals continue asking whether there is a positively trending business sector this year without considering the way that an inversion has quite recently begun.

i am wondering whether any of those 49% who voted for no would want to change their vote now that price is getting closer to $4k and we are about to break it. this may not be the bull run and the break may take longer than normal but bottom is so far hit and long gone.

Mehhh. Keen in mind, this is just how sentiment works. When price is bleeding, people feel bearish. When price is rallying, people feel bullish. It doesn't mean the bottom is in just because bulls pushed the price up $900.

We have been downtrending for 14 months. We can't just declare the downtrend over because of a little upwards fart over the last 2 months. Every downtrend is littered with bull traps. We will only really know in hindsight, after many more months have passed and we've seen a long term bullish structure form.

I wouldn't be so categorical

For example, in early January this year we rose well above 4k (reaching 4.4k at Bitfinex). But it still didn't prevent us from falling below 3.4k some time later. In this manner, I wouldn't actually say that the bottom was hit (let alone long gone). In other words, excessive enthusiasm is likely as bad as unbridled pessimism, and we should just stick to our guns being happy with what the market gives us (read, make money no matter what the price is)

It was a balance voting, but I doubt if they will change it even if the price has increase now.
Those who voted no are bearish people, they are not easily convince with a little price pump, they want to see it consistently
while those who are bullish, sometimes we are bias as we only look at the bright side that would affect the price.
I'm bullish and since $4K was achieve, I am not considering a price pull back, I'm expecting it will reach to its next stop which is $5K.

But how high should Bitcoin be before they become doubtlessly convinced? $10,000? FOMO? 8)


But pull back or not, has Bitcoin hit bottom?

^
we will see/know that in a few moths or so  :P

Store of value is the first thing that needs to drop into place, then it can become a currency after that. No one uses a currency if they don't believe it's a store of value first.

And something that's incorruptible with eventual deflation is the most obvious candidate possible to be a store of value.

As for this thread, I was expecting the last few weeks to be the muckiest time. It's been pretty quiet and smooth instead. I'm more confident of bottomness than I was at the start of the year.

wow that and bottom in one sentence coming from you...... now i'm getting more confident :)
thx for the HOPIUM weekend injection

imagine majormax saying the same, that would make me overdose :D

There is a bullish setup in 6h and 12h MACD, probably 1 or 2 higher highs are going to happen in the next 2 - 3 weeks (if the market keeps current pace). And IMO that will be the top and a bull trap.
If this will unfold as I expect, about 2 weeks from now I'll post a bearish chart, with a later bottom around 2500$. Still, the weekly PSAR might flip to bullish next week, so not all is bearish.

It doesn't mean a shit

As altcoins are essentially making Bitcoin inflationary even if technically speaking the number of coins to be mined is limited. Obviously, I'm not talking about a plethora of shitcoins that no one gives a fuck about anymore. I refer to altcoins which have a decent price tag attached to them (like Ethereum, BCash, Litecoin, etc)

Anyone who would be denying that they don't dilute Bitcoin's value is likely in denial himself. Indeed, it is way more complicated than that (which totally justifies creating a separate topic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5113173.msg49869382#msg49869382) of its own), but the net effect seems to be pretty straightforward and evident, i.e. without these altcoins Bitcoin would be better off, like a lot better

So soon?

I feel like this market moves so much slower than years ago. Everything seems to take longer. More consolidations and whipsaws and slow bleeds, and less roller coasters.

With that in mind, I look back at the 2015 bottom and it took a solid 9 months to carve that out and enter a bull market again. And who knows, maybe it'll take twice as long now. So I wonder if this current price action isn't all just trolling before we see another eventual attempt at making new lows again.

Wasn't I telling you essentially the same?


I can't agree with that part, no way

For people who hadn't been there and hadn't seen with their own eyes how things actually unfolded through that year, it may look like we were sitting on the floor all 9 months. That's the impression that many would get after reading your post. But it was never the case. We crashed below 200 dollars in February, that's true. But then we surged to 300 dollars by the midsummer. And then there was a flash crash to 200 in late August and by November we were over 400 dollars already. In this manner, you can't actually say that it took us 9 months to carve the bottom out as there were at least two distinct bottoms in 2015 with plenty of high price in between


Most of these shitcoins already died in 2018 (abandoned and left for dead). If anything, 2019 will only make people truly understand this fact (who haven't already)

No, you were saying there was going to be a really tight long term range between $3K and $4K. I couldn't agree with that at all.


That's what a long term bottom looks like. A trading range ($150-$320), tested multiple times in both directions. We eventually broke upwards from that bottom range, but it took 9 months to do it.


A lot of the altcoins that "died" in 2014 and 2015 bubbled again in 2017. Just sayin.

To me, it is mostly the same

But you are entitled to disagree, of course. Other than that, I really expect things to move "much slower than years ago" and "everything taking longer". Wtf, isn't this exactly what we have been experiencing recently? Well, in the last week, there was some action finally but it already seems to be on the wane anyway, and we can't discard two months of inactivity just because market looked somewhat alive for a couple of days


Yeah, I understand that with today's prices in many thousands it doesn't look or feel like a big deal, but that was over 100% increase, which would match today's prices going from 3.5k to over 7k. Just giving you a perspective on how much "long term bottom" actually was in these price swings


Which altcoins prior to 2014 do you refer to specifically, the both of them? Neither Litecoin nor Dogecoin died in 2014, so they didn't have to resurrect in 2017. Just in case

I've changed my mind. I'm now sceptical and think that we may not have hit the bottom in mid Decmeber.

Looking more & more likely as time passes that we have seen the bottom. I think ghe bear market is over. What we’re witnessing now is the accumulation phase.

Weekly PSAR flipped to bullish today, so the market is moving a bit faster than I expected. So IMO it will top sooner, then correct and months later possibly make a lower low than 3122$.

Though price have gone down again, I guess it will not hit another bottom as we already reached it.
Sudden dump is not new in crypto, BTC might be down but slowly it's stable now, next thing would happen is we will see it rising again.
Everytime it's done, it's always nice to accumulate and then sell it when BTC rise again.

There is more to go below the current price but I don't think it will be below the recorded 2019 low. The activties of the day traders was over done and for that matter, a lot of people got panic and sold as well that caused the sharp drop but I do not think this will continue for long. I am hopeful that we shall soon test the $4.1K again.

According to how the market is going, I think that it can touch the 3k even can reach 2800USD or 2900USD, it is not nonsense, I rely on the amount of liquidity zones when we analyze with its volume profile, many operations have been carried out at those prices, and can touch them, obviously it is a scenario that nobody wants to think, but it is possible, taking into account, that we are in a phase where bitcoins are accumulating, and many people bought in 17k, 18k, 19k, 20k whose investment they see that if the price continues to fall, some will choose to sell them at that range, get nothing or keep losing investment, that is the way many Strong Hands operate, since they will never buy expensive.

Current market is keeping $3000 price as bottom and moving up so i think now it wont go down and it will go up but not fully but the market movement will be up and down. so what you are telling about going low below will bring more panic and even it can go below $2500 so i think now market wont go down below $3000.

We have different prediction, I don't see a chance that BTC will ever go down, I am more optimistic on its growth
and I believe in the second try we will see a pump. Whatever the day traders do, they cannot stop people who will unite in pushing the price up, I've seen the optimism of the people and their will to end this long bear period.

i never understand why some people think the opposite of "not shooting up" is equal to "crashing down and setting a new low"!
we have seen this hundreds of times already in bitcoin and millions of times in other markets. not going up is just that, price doesn't go up! in order to drop down and go down to something like $2k we similarly need a huge momentum in that direction which is not going to magically happen just because price didn't reach $5k!

The same logic applied at $6,000. And it even worked for a while. But then we crashed to $3K. ;)

I'm with LUCKMCFLY, in fact I'd take it a step further and say I expect a test of $3K and lower. From a Wyckoff perspective, it's the most likely course even in an accumulation bottom scenario.

Sadly, the heavily bullish sentiment tells me we're going lower. I'm still hoping for another leg higher to sell into but nothing about the current chart or sentiment screams "bull market" at all.

In my opinion, we have seeing the bottom level for this year and such level never be witness before the end of this year again. And if you are yet to invest, is never too late to invest as we all know that the future is greater than what we seeing at the moment.

But the market has a funny way of making you believe one thing, and then it would do the other. When the majority was so sure that $6,000 was the "bottom", it crashed to $3,000. When the majority is so sure that $3,000 and lower will be tested, you will wait, but witness it climb to $4,000, then $5,000, and so on.

I have one word for it. "Whalecumulators". The plebs have no chance. 8)

It's a better idea to just follow the trend

Without even thinking or blinking twice. And if there is no trend, you should just sit and wait until there is (and then follow it). Apart from that, an old adage says that even if you are going against the crowd, you are still with the crowd. In other words, just believing in something which you believe is not what the trading crowd as a whole believes in doesn't necessarily make you right and them wrong (or any other combination thereof)