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US Election betting | Trump vs Biden


We wrote a piece on what the betting markets can tell us about Trump vs Biden (http://www.cloudbet.com/en/blog/betting-strategy/how-reliable-election-betting-markets?utm_source=bitcointalk.com&utm_medium=community&utm_campaign=us-election&utm_content=blog-how-reliable). From now until Nov 3, we will be sharing our analysis on betting, poll and voting patterns after each presidential debate.

Hope you guys enjoy the read and stay tuned!

Check out our best bitcoin odds on the 2020 US Presidential Election (https://www.cloudbet.com/en/sports/politics/outrights/international-2020-presidential-election-usa/3912517/us-election-winner?utm_source=bitcointalk.com&utm_medium=community&utm_campaign=us-election&utm_content=us-election-odds)!

50% of the 1.3 Million postal votes already returned are from registered Democrats wile just 18% are from Republicans.

More than 63 Million postal vote forms have already been requested (which is more than the number that voted for Trump IIRC).

Just on those numbers I would say Biden is likely to win the election.

I know that betting on whom would win is good every time there would be an election, either Presidential or just Senate elections. But still, I don't see the relevance nor the effect of having a good betting market or a betting market that prefers this candidate to what would be the outcome of the election/whom would be the president. Also, upon reading your article, it seems that you already have preferred a candidate. Just by comprehensively understanding your article's context, it seems that you're a little bias with how you've given your reasons and sides on the current situation.

Not to hate dude, but this is just my perspective upon your article.

@Casdinyard be interesting to juxtapose where the betting positions are versus the polls. Anecdotally, chatting to one gambling operator recently who told me that in 2016, while the polls suggested Hillary, the betting action (value and volume) was for Trump. Caveat that this may be coincidental - and the betting public is far from representative of the US electorate (or at least the percentage that bothered to vote in the end). Right now, Biden at 60%-ish probability depending on which sportsbook you use - CNN poll of polls has him 51%.

Take that fwiw. I suppose one point that Cloudbet article makes at the end - nobody really knows.... but it's fun to guess!  ;)

One now defunct online site was offering 7:1 for Trump to win.  Some people cleaned up (sadly I wasn't one of them only due to a lack of BTC at the time to place a wager) - which is probably why that site ended up going downhill fairly quickly afterwards.

Nice read! Thanks for sharing. Excited to make some money off of the US president ;D

Would be interesting to see the analysis on betting pattern. I reckon it would sort of be a reflection of how the rest of the world is "voting" for the the election.

Great article about the US Presidential election and looking at the numbers looks like Biden on a good position on this one.

I will surely watch for more insights about the ongoing campaign of this two party, its hard to say that Biden will win the campaign because this is just a prediction and the people will decide soon. I would like to hear some of the opinion of the US people for both candidate.

Seriously if a casino offers that kind of odds today on a Trump win then I guarantee you something is wrong with their odds provider, the odds of him winning should not be that high and today it would make more sense if it was around @1.7 or something.

But to my understanding these were bets on the 2016 presidential election which was a different playing field, Trump was sort of a dark horse in the election and nobody really expected him to win at all.

7.0 for Trump to win? Wish I took it. I see Freebitcoin also offering some odds it is 1.6 Trump and 2.2 Biden so the value money is on Biden I would say BUT I have a feeling Trump will win this one still easily. I know a lot of people see him as crazy,,, but judging from what I read online from real people and not media, they love him.

Bernie Sanders 13.5? ;)

If you looked at the *why* Trump was elected last time it was a vote against H.Clinton in so far as people just did not want another career politician.  It had nothing to do with gender.  Just the "air" of "I am a politician where-as my opponent isn't" struck a raw nerve.  The odds reflected that attitude instead of looking at the two candidates side-by-side, hence they lost out big time.

I'm waiting for the "wag the dog" moment of this campaign - so far I haven't seen one.

I think that regardless of your choice, there is still time to make good bets on both candidates and win with this.
Even today I saw that on some sites it's possible to win more of three times if you choose Biden, on others you can at least cover your losses if you choose Trump.
I believe that this opportunity will not last long.

Most polls indicate Biden winning this one though we all know that polls are just for reference sake and they don't represent the final outcome. Trump winning taught us that lesson.

This time around, I feel that Biden will win primarily due to the manner in which Trump handled the pandemic in USA. Trump could still win if the russians help him out or if he uses some hidden strategy.

Betting on Biden seems the be the safe strategy overall.

That was EMBARASSING!

Nothing debated, nothing argued, nothing achieved. Was that really the Presidential debate of the "greatest" country in the world???

Embarassing as it is, political debates are always nasty and it's not just in the United States.

I don't really know what to make of the first debate, it was comical (https://twitter.com/i/status/1311185400472403969) to say the least. Opinions I read in social media are divided and I guess that depends on demographics too.

As is stands now, I might put my money on Trump. I think people still hates mainstream media and "political experts". Whoever they "favor", the people votes the other.  

The days are getting close to the election date. The gamble on the election results have begun, more hot debates and discussions on the same makes the gamble more interesting. After every public speech from the leaders there is change in the winning probabilities between the leaders. Upon the same the odds too keeps varying with time, and this time odds for Trump is found to be low as his winning chances were low this time.

I saw in your odds that Biden has an advantage compare to Trump with a winning percentage of 1.64 while bettors of Trump will get 2.32 percent.

Will this odds will continue to change or this will be the permanent odds until the election will commence?

Usually, it's the incumbent that will win.  There were articles I've read recently comparing the numbers where Hillary is much better than Biden which it's almost like Trump is going to still win not on the poll but the actual election.  And this is even when the article just claimed both Trump and Biden are unstable to run a government. Its an article made to make it funny though.

This betting will required big amount of finance because the prediction of who will win in election never be accurate, shall currently no one predicts candidate of each group but predicts a political group that will emerge base on their influence to dominate or to spread their tentacle in their major cities. Using Manchester United and Chelsea football club  as illustration, no one can predict that a particular player of each group mentioned above will score specific goal,but predicts can that particular club will win. So looking at the election is unpredictable from my views.

Good read! Guess the safer route is to bet on both of them. Based on your odds, Biden is favored to win. but like what you wrote, no one knows what would happen come the election day.

Great I'll be keeping track on your analysis I hope I could use your analysis to see which candidate I'll bet with. By the way this supposed to be in Gambling discussion isn't?

I heard overnight Kanye West has nominated himself for this years' Presidential Race.  Given how many Postal Votes have already been cast, how does it work with a new candidate?  Write their name in?

Anyone offering odds on the new candidate?

I think Kanye West must need a special program to help him get through the presidential election because the opponent of Kanye West is an important and smart person to strategize, Kanye West is a rap singer and will find it difficult to do that

I would have thought with less than 40 days until the day of the election that the nominations had closed and ballot papers printed etc.  I can't help but wonder if leaving it this late is so KW can then go on to say "well, at least I tried... kind of..."

It is always interesting to bet on the US presidential election, for now there are only two strongest candidates, Trump and Biden.
Although there is still a possibility that Bernie Sanders will become the next president, it is very unlikely. therefore the outcome
odds are quite large. I myself still believe Donald Trump will win the US presidential election 2020. Therefore I bet on Trump,
even though there are still around 32 days for the US presidential election 2020 to take place.

BREAKING NEWS: Trump in quarantine as top aide Hope Hicks tests positive for coronavirus: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54381848

Together with his wife will go under quarantine. It was just reported a few hours ago that they'll go under quarantine and then a few minutes has passed, there goes the news that both of them tested positive.

But this will never affect the voting process against Biden.

Granted. Though it really resonates to me that our leaders resort to bringing personal family matters into a debate, though I think that Trump's debate strategy seemed to be effective to push his views.

*That's* what I call the "Wag the Dog" moment of this particular election.  Within a week I'd expect there to be a knock out moment one way or the other that'll decide it for me as to who will win.

That's exactly what I was thinking. I had read some articles and most of them were concluding Biden to win the elections.
Betting on Biden would be the safe option and now since Trump has been tested positive for Covid-19 the odds are in the favor of Biden.
Besides that many people think Trump did not handle the pandemic well in US and this is another reason for them to choose Biden over Trump.
Just one more month and we will find out what the outcome really is.

I'm not saying Trump won or vice versa Biden, in winning the White House this time, which is clearly an interesting bet to see how it goes.

In fact, this is an open secret among investors and crypto users in general. Trump & Biden are at stake to become president in 2021-2025, coming.

All bettors on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and also Trump's crypto market have a bet rating above the average of 55% for now, but that's not official yet, it is still temporary in betting with crypto especially Bitcoin, because it is the highest officials in the US at stake, This kind of bet has also affected my country, currently nearly 500 people have placed bets on Bitcoin, the election of the king of the White House this year, I want to see the results later if we can take the money bet on one of them.

That's more like 232%, regarding the change of odds, yes, it could change as that depends on how people react on the current situation. With that kind of odds, I still think Trump is has an attractive odds, as always, Trump won as an underdog.

As soon as I saw the news and now that we get confirmation Trump has been in fact infected by the coronavirus I knew we were in the presence of something big, has there been any noticeable change in the odds given by casinos around the world about the chance of Trump winning the presidency?

After all there are probably two main reactions that people could have to this announcement, one is to be empathic to Trump and this could give him some votes of people that could have been otherwise undecided about their vote, the other possible reaction is that some will believe this to be nothing more but a political move and this could take votes away from him if this narrative takes place.

I am still not sure how Turmp having Corona is going affect the odds for November. So far it seems the odds are not really changed and the Democrats are still far in the lead. The odds in the last weeks were kind of stable, even after the debate. I really would like to profit more from the election this year. Do you guys have any recommendations how to bet right now? Go for Trump and maybe try to hedge with a bet on Biden if the odds change before the election? I am so unsure this year. The payout for Biden winning seems quite low at the moment.

I don't think that Trump diagnosed having Covid will have big impact on the odds.
Maybe if there will be stimulus checks and other financial aids before the election, that will change the scenario.
Or am I just reading too much comments from these Stimulus check updates videos?  ;D

Since the news broke, Betfair and other bookies have actually closed their US Election markets. Biden’s odds have actually shortened considerably. It’s going to be an interesting month or so!

Absolutely going to be interesting.  Any bet on the elction at this point is a shot in the dark.  Literally anything can happen from here.  After the latest covid news and the debacle that was that pissing match of a debate, im more interested in seeing the vice's talk then those 2.

I’m reading a lot of chatter saying that Trumps positive COVID announcement is a publicity stunt after the “debate”. Thoughts on these claims or fake news?

In that case, what about the countless senators and bureaucrats who tested positive along with Trump? If Trump wanted to fake his infection, then only he and Melania should test positive for COVID 19, right? And now a lot of the senators and other high ranking people needs to be quarantined. And this comes at a time when the SCOTUS appointment is to be taken up next month.

He’s an old guy and making jokes about Covid-19 is not a good idea and I think this is not a publicity stunt to but a real one and the leader of great nation is on a high risk right now. Whatever happen, I still pray for the past recovery of Trump.

Anyway, I do both watched them their debate and I think its really fun to watch because both of them are throwing some lies and a real good one, they are attacking themselves and no one wants to stop talking, well this is a debate and hopefully when Trumps recover, more debate to come.

He actually started his campaign in July. From wikipedia :


So he's on the ballot in 12 states, and that's it. He can only help Trump or Biden win electors (depending on the state), there is no way he can win himself. If you try and vote for him in a state he isn't a candidate in, it's a spoiled ballot.

This is a controversial topic. But from what we have seen, there is very little evidence to prove that third party candidates will have an impact on the outcome of the elections. They get very few votes and most of these votes come from those who want to cast protest vote. The votes received by such candidates doesn't lower the vote count for the main candidates. And for the POTUS 2020 elections, none of the third party candidates have received any attention from the media.

From Kanye West's 12 qualified ballot states, the only state that could make any impact, in my opinion, is Iowa - that's the only battleground state where Biden is leading by 0.5%

Kanye West has nothing to do with this election,he wont even have any effect to the result .
the main candidate will battle on this event and i believe that according to news it is Biden whos leading on the race,added that trump had a Covid?or this is another media popularization because of His desperation to retain the presidential position?

wait , why kanye west is involved on here i thought this was a presidential election . kanye west is a singer . i didnt knew who is biden is but his name sounds like binladen , are they related ?

trump with a covid has nothing to do woth the result because trump is already popular and he can still make a campaign even if he has a covid and cant roam around outside but he is already a president before , is that possible to retain such position ? i thought this works by term  .

Really thinking of putting down some coins on Trump - 2.50 are amazing odds! Just need him to survive Covid.

That was my point.

There is no way that Trump "wants" covid-19 with only weeks to go in the campaign.  October is a critical month he doesn't want to have to be secluded from people and places.  With a coue more debates right in front of him he needs every minute to keep his head in the game.

Line doesn't seem to have moved much over last couple days, looking at a couple of books. Even now that he's out of hospital  ::)

Does anybody know if any book is carrying any prop markets on Harris v Spence debate this week? In Trump v Biden debate there were some funny props like what would Biden say first, what would Trump say first...

@fulham4life This man has produced better content than SNL and Comedy Central in the last 4 years, I sure hope he stays alive and win. lol

@PonziSkeem Just stay put, maybe it will come live tomorrow.

Don't you know that Bill Clinton won the presidency thanks in part to third party candidate Ross Perot ? Maybe you shouldn't bet on things you don't understand.

If someone, let's say a black voter, can't stand Trump so would never vote for him, but is not really convinced by Biden, and instead votes for Kanye, then Biden just lost a vote because of Kanye. That's why the Kanye candidacy is propped up by Republicans.

2.53 for Donald Trump is actually a pretty good odd but due to his latest health situation I wouldn't play for now.
I hope odds won't change too much if he beats corona virus soon.

Bitedge has 2.53 as the best value atm: https://bitedge.com/odds-comparisons/us-presidential-election/

I've never heard of Bitedge but I checked Cloudbet as OP says and saw the 2.53 odd from there.
I don't know why you promote other site in Cloudbet's thread though. It's not even a better odd, it's just the same.

I can't believe some of you guys actually think Kanye West is going to make an impact. The guy can't run in 38 states and can't even get enough signatures to qualify as a candidate in the remaining states. So for all purposes, consider the official vote count for him 0.

Even the Green Party has a higher chance of winning the presidency than West ;D

Maybe some people here are not aware but FTX also has presidential contracts where you can bet on the outcome of US elections.

I'm pretty uninformed about Biden and only know Trump because of media and all, where would you indicate for a non-north-american to learn more about biden's proposals? hiw own website first?

According to the BBC news, this was the latest update yesterday.
https://i.imgur.com/19DjPfX.png

This is an exciting bet. I would regret not participating in this. You know how Trump plays the game by being unpredictable and that makes
this bet really exciting and confusing. The odds for Biden is actually something to consider, for now, he got the highest odds and got a lot of votes based on the survey. But then, we will still be waiting for the analysis so we can see how would this bet work!

It seems the virus has taken hold including the future of the US presidency. With Trump infected, the outcome in the coming days might play a significant role in his campaign. Trump is now trying to leverage his partial recovery from the virus. But the macho and invulnerable image that he's created is still under threat. His team of doctors are very careful in releasing updates, even hiding certain health details citing medical confidentiality, probably under instruction that it could very well influence his reelection bid.

2.53 for Donald Trump looks like a must-grab odds if one is very positive that Trump will come out of his infection barely scathed. But if one is not very optimistic of Trump's infection, then one will expect that the current odds will still rise.

....Trump winner market is now 2.61

Which survey is it?

I agree with you that this is an exciting bet if you will going to make this a way of having excitement during the election process. Anyway, the best thing to do here is to make a platform or betting thread for this one and we will going to see which really between the two running candidates has the higher odds.

My bet will goes to Trump. My opinion is very simple and that is because Trump is an Incumbent official and has higher connections that he can use with his current positions.

I found the article @ReiMomo is referring to, it was published by BBC on Oct 4th - after Trump's cornonavirus diagnosis. link (https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53657174).

Both party are doing their best to win this election and this is really a good fight between them. As I read some articles towards their agenda and advocacy, I found Biden much more direct to the point and much necessary compared to what Trump is fighting for. We all know that Trump is racist and he is the reason why the number of unemployment is increasing in US which can worsen the economic crisis in their country.

Bitedge is clearly an affiliate of OP — nonetheless, a good resource to compare odds.

That's what I'm thinking too that nomination forms and registration would have closed now with election coming closer. I don't know if there is a verification for this. But come to think of it, is Kanye experienced enough to run for American president?
He could start trying his popularity with governorship position as others have done.

I mean no disrespect to KW the person, but his initial announcement to run many years ago was a spur of the moment announcement and the recent reaffirmation of intent to run could well have been equally spur of the moment.

I agree that if KW wants to run for public office, doing (as you say) run for Governorship (or even deputy Governor) to understand the nuances of public office first.

It is true that traditionally the third candidate for the most part does not have an effect on the election, on that you are correct but like always we cannot use the past to predict the future, there is always the chance that the Kanye campaign does in fact changes the outcome of the election.

After all is what he is doing really that different to what Trump has been doing for years? People forget that before Trump became president he tried to ran for the presidency before, Kanye is a very famous artist and if he is able to pull millions of votes in a closed election that could be the difference between winning or losing for one of the candidates.

Hoping the Harris vs Pence’s VP debate is conducted more professionally—I expect it will be.

by the news it seems like it was, what did you think about it?

anyways it doesn't influence as much as the presidential candidates, right?

In truth, I thought that the moderator was shocking again. The highlight of the debate seems to be the fly that landed on Pence's head: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8817835/Joe-Biden-leads-fly-jokes-one-landed-Mike-Pences-head-debate-against-Kamala-Harris.html

Donald Trump winning odds are raising to 2.76 now on Cloudbet. I'm tempted to play but I won't.
I have still mixed feelings, I don't want Trump to win but something in my mind says he will win again. He always finds a way to me. I also think those debates have no major impact on voters.

The US presidential election 2020 will be in 24 days, and the developments are even more interesting to follow.
Only two candidates have a very good chance of becoming the next president of America, namely Joe Biden and
Donald Trump. Based on information on winning odds on freebitcoin, Joe Bidden is indeed more superior. So I believe
that Biden will win the US presidential election 2020. Then I'm going to bet pretty big on Joe Biden's win.

just remember that these bets are usually all or nothing.
never bet more than you can afford to loose and try to limit total loss of portifolio to smaller than 3%.

UPDATE: The 2nd US Presidential debate has been cancelled

- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/09/trump-biden-debate-canceled-rally

- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-10/donald-trump-to-hold-first-rally-since-covid-19-diagnosis/12750920

The results cannot be predicted before the elections but it worth taking the risk here on gambling on anyone of the candidate for the presidential election.
Instead of seeing whose odds are better, i will prefer to bet on my favorite candidate. Both of them have a fair chance of winning. However, I won't disclose it here on whom i will vote and bet  :)

....so....

Is this not the most "Switzerland" comment you have EVER read??

I believe that it is not what we bet here is whom we will vote,because Voting is beyond our beliefs and respect to the candidate while Betting is just because of whom we thing will win.
i don't know about your stand in life but for me those are very different ,i will Bet in which i think will win and i will vote in which i believe to run the country right.
If chance become it is the same person?then i will be glad but if not then let it be.
can't wait to hear their answers and even if this will be delayed for a couple of times?yet i will wait and watch.

I don't know who will win or who will lose from them. But I curious and much more interested to know the result. Both are doing their best in their way to win the election. I previously found Trump as unsuccessful in many sectors like during his time, unemployment getting increased, he failed to ensure peace, freedom, and many problems. I also found Biden as better in comparison with Trump. Yeah, it will be interesting to bet for this election, will be hard to predict who will win from them. Following this thread eagerly to get updated.

Wow, the topic itself can boast the betting platform. The news will get the utmost priority to all media to share the results of this. I am very much interested to know this and waiting to know the world's next leader name. This bet will get the biggest participation ever I think. Maybe I am going to participate in this betting and trying to gather some knowledge about this hot topic

Dear Community,

Firstly, thanks to everyone who has shared their support on our US Election thread - we really appreciate your comments and feedback as we use the crypto advantage to bring more freedom and excitement to our players.

https://i.postimg.cc/fbrYX9KW/Bitcointalk-us-banner.jpg (https://www.cloudbet.com/en/auth/sign_upen/?utm_source=bitcointalk.com&utm_medium=community&utm_campaign=usdc&utm_content=linktext-thread-signup)

Our most recent take couldn’t ignore the biggest October surprise of all - the president testing positive for Covid - thus throwing the spotlight on the VP debate between the incumbent Mike Pence and his Democratic challenger, California Senator Kamala Harris.

Read our Election 2020: October surprise indeed article here (https://www.cloudbet.com/en/blog/betting-strategy/bitcoin-betting-us-presidential-election-2020-october-surprise-indeed/).

Be sure to watch this thread for more content and Cloudbet updates as this fascinating election campaign rolls ever closer to Election Day.

Many thanks,
Team Cloudbet

@Cloudbet did you see that Trump’s tweet where he had claimed that he had developed covid immunity has been marked as misleading by Twitter, and I’m sure that he’s going to take strong objections to it. Furthermore I too have my doubts about Trump developing covid immunity so soon, but surprisingly the White House doctor has signed it so I’m baffled if it’s actually true?.

Source:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12907258/donald-trump-us-election-2020-biden-twitter-latest-live/

There is no proof that COVID immunity is even possible at this point, the only way to test it would be to expose someone again to the virus, which is unethical.

Some parts of the world (Europe) are looking at new lock-downs as second and third waves of infection spread across their populations.  Researchers should be looking to those countries and will most likely know already who had contracted Covid during the first wave/lock-down (the population themselves should know) which will enable researchers to study second and third infections by previous patients.

(Should it come to that)

I think that's a bad action, and maybe that way won't work because everyone's immune condition is very different so it won't be easy to get people to catch Covid when the immune condition in the body is good. maybe trump is easy to get because his body condition is weak because maybe he is too tired and doesn't use a mask so he can easily catch it

You need to separate your feelings from your bets, as an example I have made bets against my favourite team when I believe they will lose, however I see it this way, if they happen to win then I will be happy about it and I will not care about losing my bet, but if they do happen to lose then at least I will have the comfort of having won my bet and that will soften the blow.

You could do the same, if you actually believe Trump will win even if you do not like him then putting a small bet on him will put your mind at ease, because if he losses you win by Trump not getting elected and if Trump wins you win as well by receiving a small amount of money because of it.

Throughout the thread we’ve seen Trumps winner market value move so much due to his positive “China Plague” result. If you want to bet on Trump - which I think that if it comes to a one-vote-per-state-election then I do think Trump will maintain his presidency - you can now get amazing value at over 2.8.

Cloudbet have embedded Trumps twitter feed to their page. Makes for fun reading!!!

Donald Trump was already old, so it is very natural if his immunity not as good as young people and he becomes vulnerable to all diseases including covid.

But I think Trump's recovery from Covid could be a game changer in the 2020 US Presidential Election, if he can completely recover from covid, Trump will be considered a hero and a symbol of the US conquest of the pandemic.

In fact, it seems that he is doing quite well against the disease, isn't he? I think that the ninth day of infection is critical, also: if you get worse, prognosis is bad, while if you get better, it's hard to get worse after.



Indeed, I have always had this idea too; while I don't usually bet, it is a good way of damage control in case you don't want to go all in when you are biased because of your preference. You won't be 100% happy with this technique, but at least you can assure some 50% of happiness depending on your feelings and how you measure them economically.

Trump has targeted Pennsylvania this week with two campaign appearances and has reportedly made the state a key focus leading up to Election Day - An interesting approach to take on Biden's home state that is heavily a blue state  ???

interesting to see how sentiment has changed (at least on FTX) contracts over the past weeks.
this is trump contract:
https://i.imgur.com/cJeAsch.png

this is Biden's:
https://i.imgur.com/32bbBOy.png

For those who are unaware on how it works:
The winner of the election has its contract expiring to 1 USD when the election is decided.
the loser has its contract expired to 0 USD.

Pennsylvania may be Joe Biden's home state. But I don't think that you can term it as a blue state. Even now, out of the two PA senators, one is Republican (Pat Toomey). Trump won the 2016 elections in PA, although by a wafer-thin margin (by 44,292 votes). As per the opinion polls, Biden may be well ahead in PA. But let's not forget the fact that the same was the case even in 2016. PA is a part of rust-belt, and Trump supporters are wary of identifying as such in the public.

In fact this is a form of hedging, just as you hedge your trades in the case something goes wrong you do not lose as much money, or you do the same as you gamble in order to avoid losing as  much money when it is clear your bet is going to lose, or as you buy insurance for your home against natural disasters or robberies you are also hedging by doing what I describe in my previous post.

But what exactly are we hedging? Your feelings! I find out long time ago this is a great way to feel a little bit better when you do not want an outcome to happen but that you feel is quite likely to happen, as in the example above if you do not like the idea of Trump winning a small bet on his favour insurances you that no matter the results you will be somewhat happy the day after the elections.

Reverse betting, ah ah I like it. If you want Trump to win, bet on Biden. If you want Biden to win, bet on Trump. Either way you win something and lose something.

I did the opposite once and lost both the bet and the election, it wasn't pretty !

Considering the extent of protests this year with quite clear bias for the politics either side and the vitriol in the arguments either way, its very likely people wont openly disclose their voting even afterwards in an exit poll they may find accuracy is not where it would be normally.     Its not even about Trump, I think many just vote with their party candidate rarely deviate from that course while relying on influence between houses, deal making to balance any negatives or disagreements.
    Last debate I watched in its strange format I thought Trump came across as fighting fit, in a general way thats probably to his credit; the host pushed back no doubt but seemed like a performance that wouldn't lose any votes especially.   The fine detail on politics is not something I'd attempt to judge and in any case I think consensus and broad points like voter perception are the only chance bettors have to determine odds best.

Trump is now favorite in Florida.

Fair play Donald, your campaign is swinging the markets in your favor!

Not sure about FL. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden is ahead by 1.4 points. However, the race seems to have tightened there in the recent weeks.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Florida is a must win state for Donald Trump. However for Biden that is not the case. Biden can win the elections comfortably even without Florida. On the other hand, Pennsylvania is going to be crucial. If Biden wins PA, then it is over for Trump. He has no chance of winning the elections, if he loses either FL or PA.

You're absolutely right, Florida is a must-win state for Trump. Biden needs to win by a large margin for it not to be contested -- which would be TERRIBLE!!!

Dear Community,

Thank you for your support on this US Election thread.

Cloudbet's Electoral College map has seen some tug-of-war action in swing states as we head into the last debate and the business end of the 2020 US Presidential Election campaign.

Our latest look at the betting markets comes before  Nashville’s Last Chance Saloon  (http://www.cloudbet.com/en/blog/betting-strategy/election-2020-nashvilles-last-chance-saloon/?utm_source=bitcointalk.com&utm_medium=community&utm_campaign=us-election&utm_content=blog-saloon) - read about changes we’ve seen in the winner and state market lines, in the days since both candidates held their town halls on October 15.

https://i.postimg.cc/fbrYX9KW/Bitcointalk-us-banner.jpg (https://www.cloudbet.com/en/auth/sign_upen/?utm_source=bitcointalk.com&utm_medium=community&utm_campaign=usdc&utm_content=linktext-thread-signup)

Keep an eye on this thread for more discussion and Cloudbet updates as the race enters the final stretch ahead of the big day on November 3.

Cheers,
Team Cloudbet

For most of the investors and those who prioritize businesses, it is evident that their vote will be for trump. With the recent articles I have read regarding stocks and crypto, I think I will kind of in favor of trump in this case. It is a massive economic development if he wins and who doesn't want that? Though we should also bet for the other competitors perhaps, if the favor will not be on our hands, we still have winnings to celebrate.

do you think it's possible to have an accurate view of the election probabilities this year without living in the US?
Would love to know the % of people here and betting who aren't US citizens.

for me it's kind hard to have the feelings about the elections without living there.

best resources for information end up being polls which are not so reliable.
where else do you gather information on crowd sentiment and more?

Can presidential debate moderator Kristen Welker prevent chaos this time? In my opinion, I think that she is doing a great job!

We all know Trump is a businessman, at least there are still many people who think that he is a successful businessman and he also gets backing from another billionaire who supports his campaign. So it is only natural that many businessmen in America that still support Trump and even donated to him. In business, if your partner comes out as a winner, your business path will have the potential to shine.

Besides that, Trump's experience when he was exposed to corona, actually was the reason behind his promise to provide corona antibodies to all Americans for free. Of course, this has turned out to be a nice campaign strategy.

Look, when you have just two people to pick from, then you are always going 50/50 for how people think of you and even when it comes to votes, it's all about who you hate less or who you want less to be doing shit to your country.

And we'll even get some sympathy votes for Trump for his sickness for sure.

@OrdinaryBloke26 according to CNN polls both Trump and Biden do not have a clear majority in Florida, and in Pennsylvania Biden is leading by a huge margin. Furthermore in this election the key factor is the vote of Indo Americans, and majority of them support Biden which has the potential to turn the election results in his favour.

Sources:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/biden-harris-indian-americans.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/21/politics/cnn-polls-pennsylvania-florida/index.html

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/21/why-indian-americans-matter-in-us-politics/

I believe there is no "odds provider" responsible for that, in the sense that you imply. After a certain amount of bets have been placed, the odds are formed in accordance with how much money were bet on this or that side. Otherwise sportsbooks would be gambling by themselves, having the option either win or lose. But they don't want to gamble, they just want to earn with their house edge, that's all. If there were 7:1 for Trump to win, that's because 7 times more money were placed on the other side.

Regarding the current Biden/Trump situation, I would bet on Trump because the chances for either of them winning are closer to 50/50, while the outcome odds for Trump are above 2.0 everywhere.

Well, I have doubt that Trump will lose this US election.
By the way, if there is someone who will host a betting game that has an entry of a few bucks amount before they will guess who will the winner. And the winner who had the same bet will be devided the winning amount to those participants. I will choose Biden here, he has the high odds of Trump.

This reverse betting is not the best way to vote. It doesn't give the accurate choice to win in your heart. You do reverse betting hoping that things turn to your favour because inside of your heart, you hope for someone else, why not throw your dice on the person you want really and allow fate to happen to your good  ;D

The odds for one candidate over the other are one indication of who might win an election, but the amount of money actually wagered is a better indication.  If one or two put hefty lump sums on a candidate they still only count as one or two "votes" but hundreds or even thousands of wagers give a truer indication of who is likely to win.

That is a quite interesting Point of View Timelord2067
I bet we could create prediction models or use existing solutions like Augur or Futuur to help on polls and % probability of each candidate winning.

I can explain better:
besides using only public opinion on polls, where people can lie or change their minds, we could use the money at stake to balance the % results, because even if someone is not sure about voting for a candidate their willingness to bet on them could be a greater indicative for outcomes of the election.

would really like to see more developed models on that.

A good debate, and it's not over yet...

As President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden met for a second and final debate, here are a few thoughts post-debate:

A win for moderator Kristen Welker.
While most - including Chris Wallace - seem to agree Welker did a sterling job, there's bound to be the odd dissenter, with Bill O'Reilly popping up to note: "Ms. Welker is now talking about the minimum wage. Why? That is a state issue."

Trump: Windmills cause cancer, they kill birds.
The most comprehensive and statistically sound estimates show that bird deaths from turbine collisions are between 140,000 and 500,000 birds per year.
Source:  US Fish and Wildlife Service  (https://www.fws.gov/birds/bird-enthusiasts/threats-to-birds/collisions/wind-turbines.php#:~:text=The%20most%20comprehensive%20and%20statistically,and%20500%2C000%20birds%20per%20year.)

We couldn’t find any clear stats on the number of cancer cases caused by windmills.

Biden: Get rid of the oil industry
Polls showed pre-debate Texas, though still in the Republican camp, looking like it was becoming more competitive for the Democrats - will that change now that Biden practically admitted that he wants to get rid of the oil industry? Will Texas now move to a solid Red state? - in line with the position that Cloudbet markets are showing,

Fact check: Joe Biden did express his opposition against fracking at least once. Mentioned this in the Democratic debate on July 31, 2019:

BASH: “Thank you, Mr. Vice President. Just to clarify, would there be any place for fossil fuels, including coal and fracking, in a Biden administration?”

BIDEN: “No, we would -- we would work it out. We would make sure it's eliminated and no more subsidies for either one of those, either -- any fossil fuel."

BIDEN: “I never said I oppose fracking.”
TRUMP: “You said it on tape.”
BIDEN: “I didn't... show the tape, put it on your website.”
TRUMP: “I will put it on.”

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1319466667676749824

The Trump office responded with a compilation to demonstrate Biden’s opposition to fracking.

Polls follow the money
An Opinium Research/Guardian poll suggests that some 55% of in-person voters intend to vote for Trump while 42% intend to vote for Biden, but where is the money going?

UK Investor Magazine referenced  Cloudbet  (https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/bitcoin-bets-85-in-favour-of-trump-victory-says-cloudbet/.) as 85% of Bitcoin bets have been in favour of Trump victory.

Are Bitcoin bettors hedging their bets, or do they truly believe that President Trump will retain the presidency?

Share your thoughts on the final debate.

Team Cloudbet

Believe me I know that pain as well especially when it came to my favourite teams, I used to bet on their favour even when I knew deep down they had no chance of winning thinking that even if the odds of winning were low if they were able to get the win not only I will be happy about the upset victory but also for the small profits they gave me.

But after several heartbreaking losses I decided to do the opposite and for the most part I think it is a better option, obviously you do not get the scenario of winning it all but no matter what happens I feel a lot better the day after and that counts a lot to me.

50/50? Why do you think that?
The first election was very tight and he disappointed many of his voters during its mandate.

I think Biden screwed things up with his stupid statements in last debate, and if we include that Laptop from Hell it is obvious that his advantage is rapidly melting.
Odds are still not suggesting that change and news media are mostly supporting him, but I would say it is fair to say that 50/50 is real deal now.
Moderator was great and neutral this time.
Check odds here: https://bitodds.com/us-presidential-election/

Cloudbet you have juicy odds on Trump win ;)

One more news could be interesting as Trump associate and ripple board member Ken Kurso was arrested by the FBI:
https://decrypt.co/46135/ripple-board-member-trump-associate-arrested

Thats 36% for Trump win which is probably overdone because yes we know in basic poll terms he is lacking in popular vote but its probably the diversity of states in which he scores a victory which is more important.   Trump is certainly going to lose big in some highly populated areas and states; the magnitude of a loss is wasted energy once achieved.   Somehow if he gains enough wins elsewhere it could return him overall as successful.   50/50 is how I'd rate odds in a cautious way normally the sitting president might be said to have 60/40 advantage but this year being a fallout and we presumed a negative for Trump then at least it would seem even odds towards the challenger.   Biden returning as a vice now presidential contender might be also the name recognition and base line support that seals the deal, he has that unique advantage this time and I'm wondering how often thats been the case before for comparison mid term.
   My bet is already off which was that Trump gets covid and has to step down in the electoral race, that didnt happen.   I took that bet because the odds for Pence taking the reigns were giant, but a good outlier imo

There is like only 10 days left, I do not really think that these debates ever achieve anything major, people keep talking about how who won or which side was better and that makes no sense to me at all. If I would have to guess, at this point if Trump is still have undecided voters they are either lying or they just do not want to admit it, Trump has been the president for past 4 years and you know him, if you are so unsure about who to vote but a debate only 10 days from the election suddenly makes you want to vote for Trump, you were always a trump supporter, you either lied to others or to yourself.

Biden has a lot more to gain because he shows himself, but at this point it is not even about Biden, there are tons who wants to vote anti-trump no matter who was the candidate. In my own opinion this debate achieved nothing at all.

quite interesting to see how fast is changes
according to realclearpolitics (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html) Biden still winning by 8.1%

not sure how accurate this data is but seems like on last election Trump was losing by 5.3% (https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton) but still made it so maybe we can assume that polls in general will favor Biden.

my bet is still for Biden here.

From what I can find around 138 million Americans voted in the 2016 presidential election. There was voter apathy though, so let's say this time the stakes are higher, COVID doesn't deter too much people from voting, and we get 150 millions voters. That would be a new record, so don't bet on much more.

At least 56 million people have already voted. So more than a third of the number who will vote in total. That means whatever happens, these votes can't change. I wonder if pollsters really take this into account, in my country we have no early voting so I don't have a feeling of how it could affect the end result.

What do you think ?

wow, that's interesting, didn't even know early voting was a thing.
seems like it's a way for americans to have "no-excuse" for not joining.
quite interesting.

was aware that absence was high but didn't think it was over 40%.

In Brazil it's mandatory.

source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idCAKBN2781A4

for more information on early-voting story I checked this article. (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/a-brief-history-of-early_b_12240120)

Seems like it differs from state to state, some states allow voting even 45 days before the elections (https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/), like Michigan.

Although it's true, I'm going to quote @STT here, because it is entirely in accordance with my thoughts on the matter:


I placed my bet on Trump, and if I lose it, so be it. But overall I think it's a right strategy to bet on something that is less likely to happen, but not that less likely as the potential winnings differ.

Debates have never been about exposing your ideas to the public, debates are about seeing if one of the candidates has something up their sleeve that can KO their opponent, and if they do this can change the minds of several people and win a few percentage points in the process, did it happen? I do not think so which is why the discussion about who won is meaningless since most people should have already decided about who they are going to vote.

But still it is a necessary exercise as there have been many elections around the world in which those kind of debates have altered the results as one of the candidates exposed a secret of their opponent that the public found unacceptable gaining him votes from those that were undecided and stole a few of the voters from their opponent.

Betnomi has a nice 30% cashback offer in case of losing bet, but I am only thinking what will happen in case final election victory is delayed for few weeks.
I can imagine scenario of public unrest, and some states even announced they will need few weeks time to count all the votes!
We may need to wait a lot of time for bet confirmation.

yeah, but could not be of particular importance on the end, depending on results in other states
at the moment, it is pretty unclear who will win the elections, and from my point of view, Trump has better chances to celebrate at the end, but that does not matter a lot, since i am not voting on this elections, not live in US

The first time I ever voted on a Presidential election was 2016.  I was sold on the fact that Hilary was going to win, and put a decent amount down.  Needless to say I ended up not winning that bet.  This is a difficult thing to ever bet for myself personally, again that is, but I guess when you've got a 50/50 chance, it's never a horrible bet lol. Good luck to those who are betting this!

It has importance because there are 37 states who are deciding the winner, and they will start counting later, and Washington State can even have 3 weeks of delay!
Mailed ballots are main issue and some states got deadline extension after election, and only 6 states started counting so far.
Here is foxnews article and video with more information about this:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/butler-county-pennsylvania-allegedly-lost-ballots-postal-service

Meh, I've already bet on Trump with 2.65 coef and i regret for my decision, because with very high probability Biden is the one to win  :-\

Also, it's obvious that your "50/50" isn't right in math terms. Because this is no coin flip, where is head or tail. Here we have a very complicated (i would say impossible to count) probability for both on them. And you can find yourself betting a man which has for example 5 % chance to win.

O think in this elections everything is possible and yes, chances are 50/50 on both sides. That is a good bet but still I will skip it, not my cup of tea
However, this will be one of the most unpredictable and most exciting bets so fingers crossed for everyone who bets.

FTX has a rule for their contact that in the worst case scenario the contract will expire in the 1st of February and the president by them will be the one to decide the expiration price.
in the case of TRUMP contract it expires for 1 if Trump is still president by 1st of Feb and by 0 otherwise.

more information here:
https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360039118112

@ChiBitCTy not many saw that coming so it’s fine, but this time round Biden is leading, and even though I like Trump I don’t expect him to win. @johhnyUA I can understand your frustration, but you could always wager a bit on Biden to recover your losses or hodl on to your bet and pray for a miracle.

Sources:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523722-biden-leads-trump-by-8-points-nationally-poll

https://www.resetdoc.org/story/hillarys-defeat-how-did-we-not-see-this-coming/

For those into NFTs Beeple is creating some interesting art with election based themes.
https://twitter.com/wsavas/status/1322326067101765632?s=20

including this one on Nifty Gateway that will change according to the outcome of the election.
https://twitter.com/niftygateway/status/1322208255310004225

Not hard to know who he's betting to, since if Trump wins the art piece will turn into a Hellman trump running in fire 'til the end of times
if Trum loses the art becomes a dead huge trump with a rainbow and a peaceful america hahahah

Yes, that's one thing to do. Bet on the other candidate, so whatever happens, you're not in the losing end.  ;)
But maybe use other site for your other bet, anyway, crypto casino odds don't have the wide gap from each other, almost the same.
If you will check the bestodds right now - https://www.bestodds.ai/odds/sport-politics/us-elections/outrights/next-president/
Are we going to expect change of odds a day before the elections?

This brings me back some memories, I remember that all my friends thought that Hillary will win and even if I thought the same I loved trolling them by saying to them that Trump will win, eventually they got so mad with my trolling that they dare me to put my money where my mouth was and make a bet against them, I accepted and they were awfully confident they will win the bet.

To their surprise Hillary lost and I just kept trolling them that day as it became more and more obvious Trump will win, they paid their bet so at least I can say they were a good sport and since then it has become one of our favourite anecdotes, they tried to bet against me once again but I did not accepted because it seems like Trump is going to lose this time around for sure.

We had many threads like this already in the past and I believe that neither of them will win because we have many more candidates who are actually more capable and more educated than them both.
Saying how only trump or biden will win seems a little redundant to me. I believe that if words come to an end and I would have to choose someone I would choose biden but then again biden is corrupted and trump , we all know how he is...but then again he managed to win the elections so we cannot really trust the judgement of Americans.
For the sake of the bet I would go for : Biden
But won't actually even waste my time on betting on this.

Predicted Trump will win 2016 and again says its equally likely in 2020, since its a rare view I thought people might want to listen to some of the points.   https://youtu.be/LsUXcUK68bY?t=837
Time point I posted there he goes over why national polls are not especially relevant to the election and how easily media opinion becomes off base etc.

My take so far from what I've seen is Trump did not improve on his voting base from 2016, however you attribute the reason for that it would then remind us it was a very lucky win hence I think the chances for repeating that luck are low.   ie. a flipped coin twice, halves its chances (https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability) of repeating the same result.    In any other year the standing president candidate would likely gain votes in many places.

Those are valid points, in my opinion! Also I liked this comment to the video:

"Alot of trump voters will never mention they will vote for him."

Think of it, and combine it with another comment saying:

"Trump will win because americans hate the press and Trump hates them too."

Many Trump voters when asked by the press about their choice, just don't want to talk back!

I placed my bet on Trump many months ago, and today I bet the same amount on him again. Trump is winning the elections, whether we like it or not.

Gotta side with @Saint-loup here, latest polls from FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/) are pointing to a Biden Win @+8.5. Majority of the swing states are in Blue right now.

Last time also, Fivethirtyeight had given 90% chance for Hillary and less than 10% for Trump. And everyone knows what happened in the end. We can't really trust the polls, because they can't accurately predict the difference in turnout for both the camps. Back in 2016, none of the polls could predict that the turnout among the Democrat voting block (especially with the minority voters) would be 6-7% lower when compared to 2012.

Only 1 day left for the election. Any last minute betting happening here? I am thinking about betting on a small amount on Trump to hedge my Biden bet. Or maybe its better to just sit it out? It's going to be a long day tomorrow.

Does anyone know when the payouts ate going to be made by the bookmakers? I heard that it could takes weeks for all the mail votes to be counted. So the official result could be ready only at the end of November.

Of course you can bet small for trump because still now the distances between the two is too close that we cannot predict who will win tomorrow  .
But I will certainly bet for Trump here later today.
I am not a supporter but as what my friends from USA  says it is trump still, who will win here

But who will here is not my concern instead it is my bet that would matter lol .

I'm not from the US so I don't know much about how politics run in their country, but I'm just curious why Trump is the underdog on this election considering he is the present president. Can anyone enlighten me, I might put my bet soon too.

I guess you should read this article.

On The Trail: The five factors that make Joe Biden the favorite (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523774-on-the-trail-the-five-factors-that-make-joe-biden-the-favorite)

Regardless of what they are saying in that article, just go with your analysis as not every time the favorite wins, sometimes the real value is on the underdog.

You know what I mean as a gambler.

Well.. Trump was the underdog last time as well. But he won the elections, since turnout was higher among the Republican voters. If you take the number of registered voters in the United States, the Democrats outnumber the Republicans by a huge margin. But they have two disadvantages. First of all, there are a number of deep-blue states such as California and New York, where Dems carry by very large margins. But whether you win the state by 1 vote or by 1 million votes, you get the same number of electoral college votes. And secondly, turnout is always low among the Democrats when compared to the Republicans. A large section of the Democrat supporters prefer to watch web series or drink beer with their friends rather than going to the polling booth.

Speaking of underdog value bets, there's a special on Sportsbet now for Trump to win at 10/1. I placed the max bet on it (1 mbtc) just purely because every other side is under 3/1 so well, that's value right there;)

Vishnu: so young blue voters just Netflix and meme-whine eh?;)

Indeed there are many people who vote for Trump who never show up their faces. Republicans contain either the noisiest person or the quietest characteristic because they have enough knowledge to choose the way they want. Only those people who follow democracy does no understand real politics. They only care about the nonsense things which can not even make their economy become better while China grows to be a threat to all the countries. Personally, I hope that Trump will win this event. However, anything can happy. Just hope that the next president aware of their responsibility to become the most impact person on this planet

Well I don't know about your perception on the 2020 US Presidential Election between Trump vs Biden but Trump indeed not a bad prediction. I aware of the present situation and bunches of people were against him. But, Look back at 2016, how become he manage to get the title of 45th President of America. For now no one can't deny Trump had a chance to elect once.

I wish there was a way to wager on "who will have the most votes" type of deal. In USA politics there is electoral college and because of that you could technically not get the most votes and still win the election. I know it is weird for many nations to understand it, it took me a while as well but you could get less votes and still become president. Republicans almost always loses the popular vote, they won like 1 in last 7 so it is obvious that they are not really as popular as they look (literally last 2 presidents out of 3 for the past 20 years) but only get votes from more places.

So, what I assume if there was a wager of "who will get the most votes" I would have totally picked Biden, 538 gives that possibility 97 out of 100, it is as guaranteed as it gets that Biden will have the more votes, no idea if he will win but he will have the most votes.

I agree with onecall123 that Donald Trump is the underdog on this election, and this is how he may get all his votes. Reasons? Mainly because of the pandemic and how he found himself facing a virus in his last presedential year which no one knows how to deal with. Trump isn't the worst president in the modern american history, but he lost all chances to get votes in the same way he did in 2016 when no one knows about him because the american voter doesn't really care about the economic repaired by Trump. I would surely vote for trump as the election underdog.

 I am checking 538 constantly to see if there is any news about anything, I am sure there is still a lot of time until we could start counting ballots and actually call it the election day but I still think that whenever USA starts, we will be here all around the world watching like it is one of the most exciting things ever in history. And this is such a wild ride that I am pretty sure it could be 400+ EC for Biden for a huge landslide victory, or it could be just florida and PA moving to Trump and making the whole difference for him to win with 270 with just few disctricts. Its really something shocking to watch as a foreigner, I know way too much about american political system and specially how election system works, I rather not know these things but for the past 1 year or so we have been waiting for this moment. Its tomorrow and we are going to finally see it. Also if I were you, I would vote Biden, I know "trump still has a chance" is a thing and yes he does but this is betting, you gotta pick one and why not pick the favorite?

My election prediction 24 hours before we start getting results: Biden wins handily.

We effectively know the result by 3 AM eastern US time, but it's all but certain early when Biden narrowly carries Florida (~2.5%). Biden wins the national popular vote (not that anyone cares) by ~ 7.2%. Not quite landslide territory, but enough for a very clear result.

The major networks will be giddy, but they won't call the result on election night.

Trump does hold Arizona, but he's unable to replicate his 2016 breakthroughs in MI, WI, or PA (although PA will not be called on election night).

Georgia ultimately goes for Biden, but Texas remains red one more time.

With Florida going for Biden, Trump ends up not doing anything stupid like "declaring" victory, although neither does he give a concession speech on election night.

Where can we find the lastest and the most updated vote counts?

I heard that Trump is leading the early count and have released a statement telling everyone that the Democrats might plan to delegitimize the results.

Dear Community,

Election Day is upon us. We're grateful for everyone's contribution in the run up to the big day.

https://i.postimg.cc/fbrYX9KW/Bitcointalk-us-banner.jpg

Ever wondered how the odds for the US Election are formed? The Cloudbet Blog provides insights on the many factors that bookmakers use to form their odds - and  see which candidate has attracted over 80% of the action (http://www.cloudbet.com/en/blog/betting-strategy/election-2020-a-bookies-nightmare/?utm_source=bitcointalk.com&utm_medium=community&utm_campaign=us-election&utm_content=blog-bookies) at Cloudbet.

As the Election enters its  final stretch (http://www.cloudbet.com/en/blog/betting-strategy/bitcoin-betting-us-election-2020-final-stretch/?utm_source=bitcointalk.com&utm_medium=community&utm_campaign=us-election&utm_content=blog-final-stretch), our number crunchers provide a final update ahead of Election Day, analysing the probability as suggested by Cloudbet betting markets of victory in key swing states like Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Pennsylvania - the battleground of choice for both candidates come Tuesday.

Best of luck,
Team Cloudbet

I just told that telling about 50/50 is wrong, nothing more. And for honest my post is enough useful notation, because people often forget (or maybe the just don't know) basic probability of events and so on. It's nice to clarify and fresh their memory about this  :)

I saw that last election was decided by only 80,000 voters.
quite little number if you think on the extension of the US and number of people.

seems like a lot more people are voting this year.

I'm also betting for Biden.
but there's a lot of uncertainty in the air.

how high you think are the chances of Trump losing and not wanting to give up of the presidency?
and what happens in this case? civil war?

What was the latest odds for Biden and Trump in your site before it closed? I couldn't reach right now.

It looks like Trump is ahead now but most Dems voted by mail, I wonder if Trump let those votes to count or not. I think this could be the first time in America, one president won't give his seat at all costs. We are used to that situation in Middle East geography but it's pretty weird in the US.

I just hit the screen grab button too quickly, Anthony Green (ABC News - Australia) is giving Indiana to Trump taking the tally Biden 190 to Trump 88 with three hours before the polling booths close on the West Coast.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/17/blob9aaadd5b9b36584c.jpeg

Trump can't do anything (directly) about vote counting. Each state counts its votes, it's 50 elections in 50 states managed by local authorities.

Now if there is something fishy, or if Trump/GOP wants to make something fishy, they can sue, in fact they've been doing that for weeks now. In the end it could end up at the Supreme Court, where of course the conservatives have now a big majority. But even then, they're judges, not politicians, they can't totally change election rules.

[quote author=aesma link=topic=5279076.msg55514751#msg55514751 date=1604463424]
Trump can't do anything (directly) about vote counting. Each state counts its votes, it's 50 elections in 50 states managed by local authorities.

Now if there is something fishy, or if Trump/GOP wants to make something fishy, they can sue, in fact they've been doing that for weeks now. In the end it could end up at the Supreme Court, where of course the conservatives have now a big majority. But even then, they're judges, not politicians, they can't totally change election rules.
[/quote]

Anthony Green has been just discussing the likely-hood of a "Hung Parliament" with one vote in Maine going to the GOP and all four in Nebraska giving 269 each:

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/17/blob7ebb05920435661d.jpeg

We here in Australia are governed by preferential voting whereas the U.S. on the whole doesn't if my understanding of their initial voting is correct.

I would be happy to do the same, but I missed that special. As of now, those are the odds on Sportsbet:

https://i.imgur.com/gsZWt3j.png

How quickly everything has changed, huh? Right now it's impossible to find 2/1 for Trump anywhere, so your 10/1 is definitely a great bet. I envy you . :)

---

I realize that it's immodest to quote one's own comment, so, I apologize in advance,  but, sorry, I can't resist from saying "I told ya, guys!"  ;D

I suspected this odds flip would occur so I staked a position early on. Now that the odds are flipped I might make a counter bet. Either way I'll win. Sometimes gambling isn't gambling if you know how fickle human beings are. Good on you for catching that. I think it's fair to toot your own horn  ;)

@Betwrong: yeah. I thought when the SB 10/1 odds came out, they probably knew something I didn't, and then before going to bet last night I def saw bookies putting Trump as low as 12/10 so I thought ah well, $13 down the drain. But right now? Looking at projected results, even with all the mailin votes coming, I think Trump is actually putting up a good fight, for sure the odds for both are closer to 2/1 right now.

I'd bet now if it were even 2/1 for Trump!

He will lose ground on electorals but he's already improved on the popular vote. Credit where it's due to the guy.

Edit: I hedged my bet with an equal outlay on Biden now at 2/1. So, at worst if Biden wins, I lose no money, if Trump wins I win 8x my stake;)

Sportsbook are smart, the odds have flip now and I believe Trump will again win this being an underdog in the opening.

I can feel those big bettors who back on trump are already rejoicing now, if they are not sure, they can easily hedge with still a profit to keep.

Well, it seems like Wisconsin could turn blue, but Nevada is 50/50 it appears with Trump closing in, same in Michigan but with Biden closing in...And looks like the bookies have Biden as the favorite right now, 1.66 and 2.4 for Trump...Hmm

nah i don't think they knew anything. They (most  bookies) followed the media-oriented polls which is why they put Biden as the big favorite, although SB might've jumped the gun a little too fast with that crazy special lol

That's really great! I'm happy for you, mate! :) Right now it looks like I'm going to lose my bets on Trump(not much, $8 combined), and you are going to "lose no money"(which is a rare case in gambling. I wish I was always betting like this). But it's not 100% certain yet. Still hope to win. :)

Absolute trash and worst elections I ever saw in my life! Look out how many people are reporting that dead people voted, and it is easy to verify that online. People born 1900 and even 1850 registered for vote and some even did it in person, is that like zombie voting!? :)
I am sure that many bookies will now cancel the bets, as they had some rule regarding time limits.

Idk, I just placed another bet on Trump on Sportsbet, with 8.82 outcome odds.

Do you mean they will stop accepting bets, or they will really cancel the whole thing, returning money to bettors? I personally think the latter will hardly happen. I mean, US election isn't some "Tom Dwan's Challenge" that could drag on for years. Surely we will see the final results soon.

People could argue about how there is a voter fraud and how there is "dead people voting" but you have to realize that just because dead people "voted" doesn't mean that it is true, it could very well be false information fed into Trump fans in order to make them feel like they didn't lose but they were cheated, it is very difficult for a person like Trump to come out and say he lost fair and square, he is not the guy who can do that, but it is quite easy to say "democrats stole the election" and just shift the blame from himself.

This is why I believe there is no voter fraud, and even if there were just a few cases of "trying to fraud the system" situations, we know about them because they were prevented. Hence I think all of these results will stand and Biden will become the next president and people who wagered on Biden will get their money back.

that!
way higher chances of these claims are only fake news created by Trump and Bannon to make democracy less credible.
We saw that before.

regarding the date of the president elected, some places like FTX considered that and gave a quite long timeline, like until February next year.
chill out people, we may know it soon.

"Even dead have risen to vote for Biden against evil Trump"   or "Dead voting for the mean who is nearly dead too"  ;D

I also read a twit where guy told that his dead friend voted for some reason. It's sound enough creepy, like some kind of zombie movie.
But whatever, i think this is reality which we should accept. Next 4 years we will live with old grandpa  ;D


At least should try. Coef enough good to risk, but i hope you don't bet too much

Looks like betting sites are going to have to start paying out their bets for Biden having won the election:

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blobd3b8a04656ba13ce.jpeg

See also: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-08/us-election-joe-biden-beats-president-donald-trump-networks-say/12859010

Joe Biden to become next US president, beating Donald Trump, according to multiple network electoral college projections - Posted 5 hours ago, updated 2 hours ago

That was a very close fight, I think Trump will try to make some protest to do some recount since it's really a close race and he only lose by a little margin, however, on the part of the sportsbook, their job is done, it's good as Biden as the winner in the election, and they should grade and do payout soon.

Unbelievable election ever. We are living in the 4.0 industry where we can easily be manipulated by technologies media and news. It is certain that many different media supporting biden strongly. You need to know that most of the people who vote for Biden for the reason is that they dont like Trump at all. Poor old man

But the result is the result. Unless Trump succeed in filing lawsuit several states at once, Biden will become the next president of the United States. Congrats. And also congratulate whoever makes a bet for Biden. He deserve to win this fight. Although I do not like him as I like Donald Trump, Biden is worthy to maintain the US and meliorate its to the way it used to be

Is it official already? Congratulations to all bettors who placed bet on Biden as I see on the news Trump says he is going to file a case since he believe that there's cheating going on, what do you think about that?

I think, because sportsbook have already graded the bets.


That is expected from the losing candidate, especially an incumbent one because they believe they are unbeatable, but the masses have speak up, Trump has to let go of this one and instead accept that painful defeat.

In the US people have the strange habit to give their children the same name they have, and their father have. Look at Donald Trump himself, he has a son named Donald Trump ! That's where these claims of dead people voting come from, with sometimes an error in people's registration added on top.

Besides, Trump had 4 years to fix the election system if he really wanted to...

He needs to move on. Anyway, what good will it give to him if he will contest the results? He has all the riches in the world to survive. He doesn't need anything anymore in his life. Not accepting his fate will just give him stress. Better enjoy the remaining days of his life.

But wondering if bookies really earn from this event?

Based on my speculation, there will be more losers in this presidential election as we know that there will be a brighter future for crypto when the winner is Trump as he's known to be a business tycoon who cares much about stock and investments. There's also no direct link about the connection of stock to crypto but who knows, there might be stock investors who are already exploring cryptocurrency and its opportunity.

On the other hand, there's also no indication that Biden is anti-Crypto, perhaps, I have read the news before that there's a crypto project who supported him for the campaign. With that, we can expect Biden to also acknowledge crypto space as a new revolution of financial technology.

Actually it's very likely Trump is totally broke and unable to pay back loans he owes several banks. Then there is the taxman going after him, he has avoided paying something like 100 million dollars in taxes. He owns stuff that could be worth enough to pay all this, but he'd have to sell many properties.

No, of course, I didn't. I placed 3 bets on Trump on various sites, and all of them combined amount to less than $10. :) I never bet too much, but in order to have some potential juicy wins, I bet on improbable outcomes. Sometimes it works. :)

did betting websites you use already paid out election bets?

I see FTX contracts are closed already so I assume they're paid out.
but freebitco.in still didn't finish the betting for presidency, you can't place new bets, of course, but payments are still pending.

I made a post about it today, you can check it out. In short, I think sites which still keeping it at pending are doing the right thing.

Right now no one is accepting bets on the next president, but there are places where you can bet on Trump conceding defeat, like "Will the Steelers Lose Before Trump Concedes the Election?", for example. :)

According to reports Biden wins presidency on the 2020 US Presidential Election, but as it has expected Donald Trump refuses to acknowledge. He has already filing a case so take over of presidency won't take place as usual. Anyway, I don't bet too much but I'd placed a bet on Trump and I lost.

Yes, it seems that some people are a little bit late of news and current events. Anyway, I just wonder who are those people that are actually losing bitcoin in the betting. Are they not regretting now that bitcoin is having a bullrun after losing their btc in the betting? I wish someone could show up and make testimonies either winning or losing btc after the presidential election.

Congratulation for every one have vote and bet for Joe Bidden as the winner of United State election, before betting and election begin many people have choose Donald Trump as favorite for the winner, this political playing always have hidden way how to be the winner in politic. I know many controversial statement from Donald Trump during campaign but still not working how to get vote from united state people and have left white house and give his department as united state president to Joe Bidden. Firstly after Barrack Obama become president of United State twice Donald Trump failed to continue how Barack Obama record.

Why should they regret after they make a bet? They must have afforded their loss so that they decided to join the game. Well, maybe some of them do regret but it does not mean all of them. Moreover, those who make bets on Biden certainly earn a huge amount of money. And if they used bitcoin as a form of transaction, probably they would have earned more than 100% from both bull run and presidential betting

I don’t know how long will Trump be able to hold on now, because he doesn’t have any proof to back his claims, and that’s why I feel that this drama will soon end. Furthermore I don’t think that any gambler had expected this sudden rally in bitcoin prices, but I also think that many of them won’t be upset, because they would be used to the fluctuations in bitcoin prices by now.

Source:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/11/election-2020-updates-biden-transition-trump-honors-veterans-day/6246438002/

Trump will hold on until mid December when the College Votes are counted then on the 7th of January 2021 the new President is formally announced and two weeks later on the 20th of January 2021, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the President of the United States of America.

Trump doesn't ever have to concede.  ON the 21st of January 2021 Trump will be an ordinary citizen and can be asked to leave the White House OR be charged with trespass.

 ;D

That's when I would payout, if I were a betting site. The probability of Trump's winning is low, but not zero. It's still risky right now to payout Biden bettors. What if Trump wins? Would it be possible to collect the money back? No.

Btw, who else, apart from freebitco.in, is still keeping those bets on pending? I personally know only one such site, I mean, freebitco.in. And I think they are doing it right.

do you have the link for the post?

well, I get your point and makes sense, it's right that the betting websites wouldn't be able to collect the money after payouts.
and freebitcoin has a reputation so they'll probably pay out after it's fully decided.

but still:
do you know these movies where the villain or with starts to melt in green acid, and while their body burns they keep screaming things like "the power is mine, I'll come back, I'm the best" or things like that?
feels like Trump is in this position now.

We get mixed messages from Trump (like always, sometimes in the same sentence). From following this closely I think he is relatively close to conceding, all his lawsuits are getting thrown out, Republicans are slowly ditching him...

Now will the gambling websites pay when he concedes (if he does) or will they still wait for the certification in January, figuring out that with Trump, anything could still happen ?

They would only have to wait until the College Electoral votes are formally counted (which is still a few weeks away) - all court cases have to be finalised before that date.

With how things going on he should concede before it's too late he should save the little reputation left in him, he won a lot of big battles in his career as a businessman and politician, it's time to let go of this one, it's not always winning in every battle.
He is just too arrogant to see the real picture because he still sees a lot of cheering and supports coming from his followers, but these are blind supporters, Trump, and his supporters will end up blind to the truth.

Two missing ballots in Georgia after vote recount. Trump and his team have strong reasons and belief that something are wrong, intentionally or unintentionally.

I don't have belief that Trump can flip the final results after vote recounts in some battleground states but if he can win in Arizona or Georgia and more missing ballots are found, it means something. To flip final results, Trump need more missing ballot casts in big counties not 2 small counties.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/us/article/President-Trump-gets-more-than-1-000-new-votes-in-15734038.php
https://www.wjcl.com/article/presidential-lead-in-georgia-narrows-as-more-than-5-000-uncounted-ballots-are-discovered/34698540#

Looks like you figured that out, right? :) Anyways, here's the link for someone who might be interested:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=320959.msg55574893#msg55574893

---

Here's an interesting article by Forbes, I came across recently, regarding the subject:


Apparently it's not only freebitcoin, who keeps it on pending.

For all practical purposes, the outcome of the presidential election is now certain. I don't think any legal challenge or recount is going to change the outcome. Initially I was afraid that at least some of the gambling sites would use this opportunity to deny or hold back the winning amount, but it looks like they are distributing the rewards without waiting any further.

Sites like Sportsbet, Stake etc are being lauded for paying quickly which is the right choice. Freebitco etc are being criticised by many gamblers. Who the heck would want to wait for months for their winnings when the result is loud and clear?

Also, Trump's chances of flipping the result are literally zero. What makes you think it isn't zero? The projections and official results match perfectly. Recounting, cries for fraud etc will change nothing.

have you heard about firehosing?
it's his techinique.
The brazilian president borsalino, which is a big fun of Trump does thesame.

thanks for the link @Betwrong

---

FTX just opened a new contract that expires on February 1st.
TRUMPGO and TRUMPSTAY for those who think he still has a chance.

information about it here:
https://ftx.com/trump-tokens

dude, betfair hasn't paid out bets for the presidential election. they have almost $1 billion in outstanding bets. who cares what little sites like sportsbet do?

it wasn't a landslide, the count was rather close in multiple states with recounts happening or likely on the way, trump is not conceding, lawsuits are pending. i think it's rather ballsy to pay out before the projected electoral vote is absolutely certain.


because there are historical examples of recounts overturning election results. the supreme court could also potentially play a role. is it likely? no. is the chance non-zero? yes.

i'd put the chances at considerably less than 1%. betfair punters say 5%. nobody is right or wrong until the fat lady sings.

Being forced to buy both tokens then get rid of one to actually bet on the right outcome is smart for them, not so much for us. I'm guessing the price of TRUMPWIN will be almost nothing.

The key dates to watch for ( as referenced in this post: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-12/biden-trump-us-election-result-official-what-happens-next/12875804 ) are:

• 9^th December
  
  
  Quote
  The states have until December 9 to settle any disputes over the election result, including recounts and court contests.
  
  
• 15^th December
  
  
  Quote
  Each state's electors have until December 15 to vote by paper ballot for the president and vice-president.
• 24^th December
  
  
  Quote
  Those certificates must be delivered to the designated officials by December 24.
• 7^th January
  
  
  Quote
  That's when the House and Senate hold a joint session to count the electoral votes.
  
  When Biden or Trump receives 270 or more electoral votes, the President of the Senate will announce the results.
• 21^st January
  
  
  Quote
  That's when the president-elect will be sworn into office on Inauguration Day.

So basically, the 7^th of January 2021 is the most likely date any gambling websites will hold onto funds until - after which point punters can query why they haven't been paid out.

(and given the rise and rise of bitcoin over the last few weeks, those funds are getting richer and richer by the hour)

I'll give you Biden to become next President (versus Trump) at 1.02 odds (-5000) if that's something you'd be interested in  :P
Basically a free 2% profit at the cost of not having access to your bet funds for roughly 2 months, if you truly believe the chances is 0%. Even better, I'll offer this as a Trump vs Biden bet; if Biden dies for whatever reason (definitely a non zero chance) before he becomes president, the bet would be void.

The vote recount if (can help) only help Trump to win 1 to 2 battleground states and won't help him to win the President Election 2020.

He can not accept the lost presidency and it is more difficult for him to see news on efficacy of vaccine trials were released few days after the Election day. The vote recount battle might not help him to good support for 2024 President Election. Many things can help in 4 years.

He is not looking for the opportunity to win in 2024, he wants to prove that he win this election, and if he would just accept it easily, there's no reason for him to run in 2024 as he would still not win IMO. I don't know, maybe people are already tired of him or his administration was jut hit by the bad timing of pandemic, if he had release the vaccine (if he has) before the election, then he could have won easily.

you're not forced to buy both tokens.
not sure if you got the mechanic right but check that:


TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE are already closed contracts, both considered that Joe Biden won and were redeemed accordingly.

If you still want to bet on the possibility of TRUMP staying or leaving office until february 1st you can use the tokens TRUMPSTAY and TRUMPGO.

The page linked allow you to create these tokens BUT you don't need to create them, you can just go directly to the contract page and trade it:
https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD
https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPSTAY/USD

Unless of course you were on freebitco.in (ref link in my signature) which have bets for Kamala Harris becoming the next US president. $1 bet at 300:1 TYVM  ;D

I mean the initial way to get the tokens. 0.840 for TRUMPGO, interesting, that's better odds than DarkStar_ is offering, what's the catch ?

I never said my offer was good - in fact it's a pretty poor offer compared to exchanges. PredictIt (https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698) currently has Biden at 0.840 as well so I think it's a reasonable offer (though still much better than Betfair, which has 1.05 for Biden right now). I'm surprised prediction markets are differing this much, but I guess it's hard to arbitrage between Betfair and PredictIt since PredictIt is USA only while Betfair excludes USA.

I'll offer Betfair's odds of 1.05.

We will use an escrow, up to .15 BTC of mine up for grabs (which means you can bet up to 3 BTC)!

Guys, although I said earlier that Trump's chances were not zero, I would rather discourage you from offering those bets with 1.02 and 1.05 odds. The thing is that if Trump wins, Betfair and PredictIt pay out from the funds collected from Biden bettors, losing nothing themselves and even earning something with the house edge, while you are risking to lose your own money.

Georgia has reaffirmed it's tally with Biden winning the State after a recount.  I've heard certifiers are being pressured into changing their affidavits but are resisting the attempted Coup that's trying to undermine the democratic process.

All betting should have ceased by now.  If you're still placing wagers, there's going to be tears down the path.

Bring on the 9^th of January.  (then the 20^th)

Was this 1.02 and 1.05 betting is effective when I play in the games? Because, these recently I played most often in the gambling
games, I just bet on which I think is enough or correct to make me win for every bet round. But just like what everybody saying about it gambling losing is most often happen rather than winning.

Yes, it's always profitable to be the house, but these are exchanges in which case the layers/backers are risking their money.

Same situation here. I'm laying Biden at 1.05 (Even though the Betfair bid dropped down to 1.04, and that's where it's currently at). The only tears I'll be experiencing is if
Trump somehow wins, so I have my personal reasons for laying.

Are there any bitcoin sites still taking wagers on this?

Yes, FTX.com has a contract for TRUMP making a come back until February 1st.

I wrote about it here:



they called it TRUMPSTAY and TRUMPGO, they're open for trading now and like before it'll expire to 0 or 1 USD according to the results.

take into account that FTX is not open for US residents, but if you're using less than 2 BTC you can probably just use a VPN.

 I personally hate trump myself but I also understand the fact that some places may not want to pay up until the results are official and paper inked so that there is no other potential move by trump. We all know trump will try to do whatever he can to forcefully take it. If given option to just take it illegally and do a military coup over Biden and just say "I am not leaving, nobody can do anything about it, don't care about election results I just took over" he would have done it very easily, without a doubt. Dude doesn't care about democracy or anything, he just cares about what is his and if he can become a dictator ruling thanks to military he would have done that. Thank god USA is a lot more developed than that to allow him do that so he will be kicked out when the time comes and all sportsbooks will be forced to pay up.

Even if you can wager on Biden at 1.02 that is 2% that is GUARANTEED to profit you and there is no way that you can lose that. I think people should stop with the "maybe trump will make a comeback" type of talks already, it is not only looking very silly when people say that while all the official results and counts shows that Biden won and even recounts show that and even courts reject all cases and basically there is not a single proof of Trump having even a slight chance.

However when people do try to say these things, they are not only hoping Trump might win, but they are also hurting Biden's presidency as well, and if you are a Trump fan you should know how bad it was for people to attack a president, trump fans should know that better than anyone. Hence why I think we should just let this go.

One by one the Republican delegates are certifying wins for Joe Biden, so the era of Trump is now over.  Anyone taking bets at this point for an election that is over are scamming people.  Anyone placing bets is being scammed.

Very interesting topic ... really, Biden beat Trump in these elections, I think a lot of people bet on Biden in these elections.

I am not a gambling expert, but I would like to know how the market will behave with Biden's victory !!?!?

Even the two big social networking sites Twitter and Facebook believe Biden won unanimously in the presidential election, in fact, they are going to handle to the Biden administration the official US presidential account to the Biden administration

Twitter, Facebook will transfer presidential accounts to Joe Biden on Inauguration Day (https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/20/21588033/twitter-transfer-presidential-accounts-joe-biden-president-donald-trump-inauguration-day)

It's really time for Trump to concede and save the humiliation of getting a kick out

Many gambler lose their money on US presidential election bet, which really teach many gambler leason who bet because of the crowd they saw during the campaign, between Donald Trump  and Joe Biden. Many gambler who bet for Trump to win the election for their favour, later lose when the electoral college brought the final result that make Joe Biden pulled 79,703,5480 vote to defeat his incumbent Donald Trump who pulled 73,713,887 vote in the US presidential election that just concluded.

Most specially the one who Bets $5million in favor of Trump  ;D

Surely he had learn His lesson and may be caution from now on in every gambling that he will be doing.

___________________________________

But like what we must understand,This is gambling and we cannot win over this so expect more losses but at least Fun and Enjoyable.

It looks like it's not just a lesson but a belief in the stakes and the possibility of idolizing or hoping Trump will win again and become president.
Even though the stakes were high, it didn't seem like he would feel a loss because he had a lot of money and satisfaction even if he lost, and it didn't look like it would happen again.

Betmoose.com and Fairlay.com are still accepting US presidential election-related bets (buying and selling on both sides).


I have a hard time seeing why that would make one gambler a scammer and another gambler a scammee as it's all public knowledge and it's not like there's any proof of anyone taking bets manipulating the election process.

The thing is, when all of the states finish verifying the results and when the certifying is over there won't be anything done to make Trump do a comeback, he can't make a comeback when the results are officially official(!). Plus the first ones to verify ended up some important swing states Biden won so it is looking clearer and clearer as well. I get that Trump may want to keep yelling wolf but that is not going to really get them any help at all from now on.

The awesome part is, it is republicans who are certifying these results as well, which Trump was hoping that maybe it wouldn't happen, maybe he would convince republicans to not go for it and just convince them to give it to him or pick faithless electors and so forth but it didn't happen, republicans showed spine this time around.

What's even more amazing is Trump is either spending his own money (or more likely his die-hard supporters) to fund legal challenges that have ended up proving Trump didn't win.

More and more Trump's time in the White Hose will be defined by his refusal to accept he was beaten fair and square in a two horse (or rather donkey) race.  It'll be a mere formality when the betting agencies payout on the Biden win.

Dear Bitcointalk community,

We would like to provide a bit of transparency on the status of the 2020 US Election payouts. Due to the uncertainty in the US political scene, payouts have been partial as with many other sportsbooks. We will provide another update once we receive the greenlight to make the payout. Make sure you follow this thread for further updates.

Thank you for your continued support and patience.

Best wishes,
Team Cloudbet

Now I understand and support you in your decision. It is a known strategy called "betting against your favorite team". If Trump wins, at least you'll have some consolation in winning 20x of your bet. :)

I'm just curious, so this thing is not yet over in sportsbook? Does a sportsbook offer an odds of 20X if you bet on Trump?

What sportsbook was that if there's is, I like to take some chances.

It's kind of funny that most of my bets on the election paid out after the states were called a few days later. I still have one tiny bet that is outstanding for Trump to win and would totally accept if the bookmaker decided to close it as a loss. I appreciate that *technically* Trump could make it back, but that would be a kind of unprecedented undermining of the democratic process and there seem like very few legitimate routes back at this point.

at this point any claim that Trump could make a "come back" or "refuse to leave office" will just hurt US democracy.
lost is lost, these are the rules of the game.

it's a bit weird that Trump supporters don't see that, but makes sense, it's simmilar with Bolsonaro in Brazil.

This is the first time it happens in the modern American election let's see how things will play out, let's see how stubborn Trump is, how they are going to kick out Trump, will they need a court ruling on this, or will the military force Trump to vacate the position.

It's only over a month to go, I think Trump is buying time he is weighing his option, once he sees how futile it is to hang on he will eventually give up, why on Earth he wants to hang on when he wants to have more time playing golf. 

What uncertainty? Are you guys expecting everyone to wait until Biden officially sits in the office early next year? You guys are simply not willing to take risks even after the official votes matched the projected votes after recounts in several swing states.

Trump literally admitted himself that he will allow Biden to begin using Presidential resources recently. Books like Sportsbet, Stake etc paid their gamblers quickly.

It would be wise to process all bets without wasting anymore time since the results are clear and there is zero chance for them to change at this point.

Maybe some big bettors are threatening to sue bookies if they call it for Biden already ? Could happen, when you see the level of delusion among Trump's supporters.

I somehow doubt any bookies paying out for Biden will be threatened with anything given Trump has started the process of the transfer of power as indicated in this article (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-25/joe-biden-what-has-promised-to-do-in-first-100-days-us-president/12784966) - see also the video at the bottom of the post.

Trump = Chump

agree that it is probably over, once for all, and Trump is out in January
it was an unbelievable story of US elections, and proved that any country under the leader such as Trump can become "third world" country, without any system and democracy, and that could happen as fast as under four years, that was his term

hopefully, people will stay away from politics for some time, and unite under fight over Covid, to decrease their current numbers of infected people

@casperBGD yes it’s over and now the bookies cannot delay the payments of those gamblers who had wagered on Biden to win, and if they continue to do so then they’ll risk the wrath of the gamblers as they’re within their rights to sue the bookies.

Furthermore I feel that Trump did some good things too e.g. he stopped the trade privilege for India (saving lots of money for US), took a stand against China (almost sealed a new trade deal*), and I believe that had he been little more sympathetic then things would have changed for better under him.

* (Phase I completed, but more details are yet left to be finalised.)

Sources:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-india/trump-plans-to-end-indias-preferential-trade-treatment-idUSKCN1QM007?utm_source=reddit.com&utm_source=reddit.com

https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-phase-one-trade-deal-china-and-us-election

It is very embarrassing for Trump supporters to reject Biden's victory, I agree that US Democracy looks bad because of this.
Trump and his supporters are wasting time hoping that Trump will come back, how many lawyers assist Trump will not change
the US presidential election result. They all have to be able to learn to accept defeat and move on, don't make the situation less
conducive. This also proves that Donald Trump is not a gentleman.

in the meanwhile for those who don't mind "locking" funds for a while, it's possible to makesome easy money longing TRUMPGO on ftx shorting TRUMPSTAY
(if you don't have an account there yet and want some discount on fees drop me a PM).

I really wonder why they opened this contract when the outcome is so obvious.

I haven't seen any evidence for the same. Even here in Bitcointalk, there were some very well publicized bets between well known users. The one comes to my mind is the 0.1 BTC bet waged between suchmoon and eddie13. After the results came out and it was clear that Trump had lost, eddie13 transferred the coins to suchmoon. At this point, I have to say that it is the Biden supporters who are behaving in a delusional manner, by posting fake claims.

Lost is Lost but what if the evidence is concrete that there is cheating in this election?that this was planned to put biden in white house while waiting for His death as he is very old and may not finished the presidential term  ;D
That's why they are called supporter because they tend to support their president specially about the election for not being FAIR.

I found this weird too. It's like they want to give out free money to people. Many books even offered around 1.05-1.1 odds on Biden even after AP called the race in favor of Biden which took me by surprise. Easy money.

Lol. Crazy conspiracy theory. The democrats didn't just select Biden as their nominee out of the blue. They probably thought of all variables and then decided to select him as their nominee. Think people.

Or a man that dont really accept defeat because if he's really a man then he would just face up on what people wants.If he didnt wont the election then simply move on.
What he's still trying to fight for?  This is already a past even and theres no point for them to bring up issues just hoping for some changes of the result of the election
and still dreaming that Trump would get his spot back.Gone are the days where he do still had that power yet now he's only just an ordinary citizen.

Pretty much!

Btw, malevolent mentioned Fairlay on the previous page and I brought .2 BTC over to the site, so any one is free to take it. It's at 1.04 odds so 1 BTC wins .04 BTC, you just gotta select 'against' Trump.

well, not complaining about easy money at all, if they want to make it, that's fine,
the house always wins in the end so it's probably not bad for them either (in the case of FTX)

regarding the conspiracy theories, some that are defending Trump now are the same ones who probably supported the "build the wall!" campaigns while making Steve Bannon even richer, so... nothing to see here lol


though the otherside of the bet is losing all your money, right?
even though I believe there's no chance for Trump coming back I'd still not bet 1 btc to get .04 only... and risk losing 1btc (even if I had a full bitcoin lol)

It's my first time to see that the US election has this political mark of discrepancy with the election vote result. I'm not living in any part of America but i am a vivid watcher of US election result started when the time Barak Obam winned and became president and i am amazed how their election voting goes on and i believe that in this kind of country no discrepancies can arise. But what happened this past election was over and i guess Biden was truly winned via votes of people who believes in him. However it is threatening to know what Trump were capable of, hopefully he can accept what has been done and resulted.

They want to take money from people. You had to buy the tokens, then trade them, and of course there is a fee. The house isn't risking anything and isn't giving anything, only raking in money.

The reason the US President isn't sworn in for two months after the election is to enable any challenges to take their course and then the results are declared, then the Oath of Office takes place.

the 2000 election had one of the most contentious challenges with Former Vice President Al Gore challenging the results in Florida which swung to Presidential Hopeful George Walker Bush (son of former President George Herbert Walker Bush) which gave the Presidency to GW Bush.

Had Al Gore challenged all fifty States' election results, then Al Gore would have won the Presidency.

Check out other challenges that have occurred.

It's actualy saddening to see how a huge number of people still voted for trump, it was like these guys had never learned a lesson. All of that aside, this was the first time I enountered this big of a bitcoin bet on a presidential election, not to mention the fact that I was oblivious about its legality. Whatever it is, I hope those who deserve the win got what's going for them and vice versa.

Yet, in sports betting people often place such bets, and they win most of the time, btw, but I'm with you here, the potential reward is too small compared to what you are putting at risk.

In the meanwhile, the 2024 race has started already.


From what I read, many bettors believe that with +700 odds for Trump it's worth a shot.

Donald Trump has had his day, but his daughter might get the media's / voter's attention.  Here's the full list from that website you cite:

https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20201125-2024-us-presidential-election-odds-bettors-backing-donald-trump-to-return-in-2024

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blob27792853309ebdb4.jpeg

No sign of Taylor Swift, or some of the more obvious GOP candidates.  Harris or Biden are definitely in with a chance.  I wonder how much a 0.001 bet costing <$20 now will be worth if the bet paid even in 2024 given BTC hit $19,250 two days ago??

Pretty funny that bookies think it's more likely that Kamala Harris wins the 2024 election than Joe Biden winning a second term. Just goes to show the kind of expectation people have for his term!  ;D

I would have thought there'd be interest in bets for Mike Pence, but no one seemed willing to take the plunge on that one.

At near 78, Joe Biden is the oldest first term President ever elected, so it's no surprise that people are imagining he will either serve one term, or not see out the term for various reasons thus elevating Kamala Harris to the top job.

---

---

Take note the bets are for "elected" the next president, not assume office.  Mike Pence could assume office for a few weeks if Trump walks out once the Electoral College votes are officially counted in a couple of weeks time.

It's a bit early to predict the future but if Bidens presidency brings positive results, he's most likely to be renominated by the democratic party and win while if it ends badly, Republicans are going to win the presidency, so there's almost  no likely situation for Kamala winning.

there's a long time until 2024, really hard to take any conclusion now.
I wouldn't rely that much on betting websites for that, gotta check how big is the sample (number of people giving their opinions)

I wouldn't trust that betting odds, that's not even available in bookies yet, so how can we verify that it's really what the bookies are thinking?
As long as people are satisfied with Biden's leadership, he will be the favorites in the betting, unless he will be like Trump.

If Biden was in better shape I'd agree but he isn't. I would have voted for him if I had voting rights in the US, don't get me wrong, but he's still a poor choice for president. So there are plenty of scenarios where he isn't a candidate for a second term, I'm pretty sure at some point he was even saying that he wouldn't be a candidate for another term. I could see him resigning after a couple of years, once he has put the country back on the right track, giving Kamala one year to preside, and one year to campaign.

If Biden was in better shape I'd agree but he isn't. I would have voted for him if I had voting rights in the US, don't get me wrong, but he's still a poor choice for president. So there are plenty of scenarios where he isn't a candidate for a second term, I'm pretty sure at some point he was even saying that he wouldn't be a candidate for another term. I could see him resigning after a couple of years, once he has put the country back on the right track, giving Kamala one year to preside, and one year to campaign.
[/quote]

Biden's 80th birthday is in just on two years' time - were he to resign at that time it would give Kamala Harris two years as President to establish herself in the minds of the public as a viable President and she could still run for two terms (enabling her to serve as President for ten years - in much the same way Mackenzie Allen (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mackenzie_Allen) once did  8) )

Trump is a successful businessman and that was one of the advantages for him, when he started campaigning in 2016. But I don't understand why Ivanka Trump is being considered as a serious candidate. She hasn't achieved anything noticeable so far, either in business or in politics. We don't even know about her political views on various topics. Just because someone is good looking, that doesn't mean that he or she would automatically qualify for the candidature in 2024.

Anyway, 2024 is still four years away. Making a bet now is extremely risky. Because a lot can change during four years.

That list doesn't make sense at all to me, it is a joke at this point and not a funny one neither. Think about it, they have listed Ted Cruz, the guy that was leading the GOP race before Trump won, basically second highest level nominee for RNC at 2%, they have put Pete Buttigieg a guy that was probably third at DNC nomination at 2.9%, and above them there is Dwayne Johnson at 3.8%.

All of that aside, they have put Ivanka Trump, a person whose only qualification for such a job would be the daughter of past president and nothing more, to actually be as valid candidate as third biggest candidate in DNC? On top of that, there is zero Bernie Sanders anywhere, I know he would be old at 2024 but so will biden and trump would be as well, so I think it is not really a list you should care about.

I am not sure about Bernie Sanders. After two consecutive failures to secure the Democrat nomination, I don't think that he will run again in 2024. He will be 83 years in 2024, and if he is elected, he will be 87 years old when his term ends. I am not denying the fact that both Trump and Biden are also in their 70s. But Trump is 74 now, and I think he could have served one more term without much issues. But once you cross the 80 year line, then you are stepping in to uncharted territory (that's why I think Biden will retire before his term ends).

another thing to take into account is: why would somebody want to lock their funds for 4 years in a bet?
I mean, the outcomes can be attractive but still to long to keep the money locked in a play that can be changed for so many real life reasons (president die or is murdered, new candidates appears, scandals arise, etc, etc, etc...)


plus: hope Andrew Yang comesback stronger on next elections.

Putting Ivanka Trump at the same odds as for Michelle Obama looks like a joke to me. I mean, Michelle Obama has really some chances of becoming the next president, while Ivanka has none. The only explanation for me is Ivanka's admirers placing those bets just to see her in that list.

---

I the meantime, most bookies have settled the bets with Biden as the winner. When do you think it will be finally settled on all betting platforms?

Betfair said they are anticipating (https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-betfair-market-settlement-latest-051120-204.html) to resolve on Dec. 14 after the electors cast their votes (and I assume a few other bookies will follow this example), but some will run all the way until January 6th when the electoral vote results are announced.

Both Michelle and Ivanka have zero chances for 2024. In all probability, the Democratic nominee for 2024 would be Kamala Harris (if she doesn't become the president before 2024). Right now it is difficult to predict who will be the Republican nominee, but I don't think that someone like Ivanka who has achieved very little so far has any serious chances.

... unlike her father prior to being elected the 46^th President of the USA four years ago?  

Mouthing off to the cameras and pandering to the lowest common denominator got DJ Trump elected (and cost gambling sites a hefty payout)  Putting BTC 0.001 now on the totally rank outsiders might not cost much now, but the returns are anyone's guess both dividend and the actual cost of bitcoin in four years' time.

regarding Betwrong question:
the website that will finish later, as far as I've seen is FTX, where the TRUMPGO and TRUMPSTAY contracts will stay online until 1st of February.

well, not complaining about easy money.

Yes, it looks like freebitco.in is going to pay out after Dec. 14


according to this ^^^ today's post by TheQuin.


Some of them will run even further :), see the post by @Lucasgabd below.


I read this article  (https://decrypt.co/47588/ftx-lets-trump-trolls-to-hold-onto-us-election-bets-until-february), and it remains unclear to me, did they pay out Biden bettors already? It seems they, FTX, were so confident in Biden's win that they did.

From fairlay, I only see the option to bet on Trump, not Biden.

https://fairlay.com/markets/news/

This is a joke, probably it's a sucker bet because Trump had no chance of changing the votes, therefore he will loss pending the formal announcement of the election, I doubt there are still bettors would would take Trump despite the news all over that Biden is 99% likely to win the election.

It's a prediction market and you can bet 'on' Trump or 'against' Trump (on Biden). Betting 'against' currently pays 1.072 and there's .1 BTC you can take at 1.069 odds. These are pretty good odds that are significantly higher than Betfair, but I guess a lot of people are confused as to how prediction markets work.

It's more like >99.9999%. Trump has no realistic chance of overturning the results. His only chance would come if by some miracle it can be established that the Democrats managed to cast millions of fake ballots. However, the gambling sites are trying to make some profits, by allowing such bets. Hardcore Trump supports may make these bets, and lose money in the end.

Aside from who you're backing and the fact you're using BTC, which I agree might make sense in a classic risk/reward scenario, you're also betting on the website still being there in 4 years, though, which might be the bet with the biggest odds !

I don't think the result will change after the official count and besides trump has already lost his supporters and allies. Now that everything has been cleared, he need to accept his defeat in a professional manner and step out of the white house like a decent man.

Maybe the Trump side will stop complaining about the election result if the proclaimation that Biden wins will happen as soon as possible. I guess there's no point of fighting for a reason that the election result was been sabotage or there is descrepancies happened when the allies and supporters of Trump already turning their back against him. He should need to accept that he already defeated in this fight.

That is definitely one of the greatest risks. In the cryptocurrency sector, very few of the gambling sites and exchanges have that much lifespan. So if you are making a bet, which will be decided only in 2024, there is a real chance that the website will go down before that and you will lose your coins. I have never made any bets, which makes me to wait for more than three months.

Are you sure you followed up the election procedure, I think those things has been done before them kick off election, normal all presidential election both party's usually come for debate and from that point in time people have to select the credible one to vote, but saying that their was no debate how would people know the rightful candidate to follow.

You're right, but  the price of the crypto used for the bet, is also an issue, if it falls during the period, you'll get coins that worth nothing in 4 years.

Some people vote for their parties candidate regardless of who that may be.  Others turn to the media and hear what a candidates platform is (unless of course said candidate turns on the media and declares their reporting of the facts to be um, well... "not true" or er, "fake" in the eyes of the candidate).  That news is said (by the candidate to be "not true", or well "Fake news..."

History is usually not kind to such candidates.

14th December is when electoral college is going to cast their votes, all other news before then is guessing what happens.  I agree its very probable and known how the 14th decision turns out but all the same its not occurred yet and thats why most sites could have thought to delay, I dont find theres much reason to ignore the result after that date despite various formalities continuing.    I guess in theory they could wait till literally the president elect is the president sitting in the white house and then nothing is left to contest but the 14th is the date I take as final personally.

At least, Freebitcoin seems to agree with that. According to this post from TheQuin, the bet should finally be paid out on the 14th, as I understand  :)

What gambling sites are dependent on the pinnacle result?

One poster ask in the thread of BetBTC, and they have answered it.


I believe until now there are still gambling sites that have not settled bets yet.

There are multiple risks. Obviously the cryptocurrency exchange rate can go down, just like what happened during 2014-15 period. But a greater risk is the gambling site itself getting closed without any warning. I am active in this forum for almost 4 years and I have seen this happening in front of my own eyes. Many of the gambling sites, which existed in 2017 are no longer active. Most of them vanished all of a sudden, taking the customer funds with them.

I would not think of that at the moment, I'd rather be positive and just wait until the bets are graded.
We know from the very beginning how risky putting your money in crypto, even in gambling sites, so we should be ready to accept whatever happen.

The possible opportunity we would not enjoy is the good price of bitcoin because gambling sites have not graded the bet yet.
Imagine, if bitcoin at $19k now will drop to $10k, that's a big loss of opportunity for them.

There are indeed sites that had closed up their doors but only a few of them did really do such thing and still there are old sites which are more that 4 years old
are still running up today.It all matters on the demand and its just normal for them to close if they aren't really getting much players.

About on probable scams and frauds then it do really happen that's why we should really be careful even though we cant tell it initially
or wont know on what would happen.

Just this week-end Trump has pushed for governor Kemp to throw away Georgia's results and call for the state's house to decide the result instead (in favor of Trump of course) so clearly he's still trying, although that one didn't work (and wouldn't have been enough even if it had worked) : https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/05/politics/trump-georgia-brian-kemp-phone-call/index.html

Obviously if he is going to concede that easily, then he would never raise such a huge amount for the post-election legal battle. IMO, even Trump knows that he is not going to get the election results overturned. These can be seen as pressure tactics, to discredit the victory by Biden. A large section of Trump supporters, and foreign leaders like Jair Bolsonaro think that the elections were stolen.

Trump does not realize what he has been doing so far, by not accepting Biden's victory makes him even worse in the eyes of the public.
I'm also sure Trump realizes that whatever he does is impossible to change the election results. But because Trump's character is not
a gentleman, Trump and his supporters continue to put pressure on Biden.

Well, after his term, he will be back to a businessman and not a politics, he will be back on private, so he doesn't really care about his reputation and he will just do is to fight and fight hoping the law will favor him with his case filed. Though we don't like to see this, but we can't do anything  but to wait, lots of greedy business interest are going on inside, an announcement is what makes this matter over.

Dear community,

We would like to provide you with a quick update on the 2020 US Presidential Election. Some bets have yet to be settled due to unconfirmed election results. Although we are unable to confirm the payout schedule just yet, we wish to refer you to relevant resources to help you better understand what can be expected.

2020 Presidential Election Timeline published by The Congressional Research Service (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641)

Thank you for patience and make sure you follow this thread for further updates.

Cheers,
Team Cloudbet

Why should there be a delay? I guess you are talking about some of the House results, which are yet to be declared. IMO, I have doubt regarding only one race (New York's 22nd congressional district). Most of the other close contests have been declared and certified by the authorities, including Iowa-02, which was won by Mariannette Miller-Meeks with a margin of 6 votes.

But this should not have any impact on the bets placed for the presidential election results, right? The outcome is confirmed for all the 50 states, as far as the POTUS elections are concerned.

well, in one thing we may agree here, Trump was never a decent man, this shetshow is just part of his play, making the democracy stronger is not something he usually does, it's the opposite.
same with Borsalino in Brazil.

and yes, as Saint-loup said seems like freebitcoin will pay out this bet on December 14th.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/ALvHc.gif (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-recount-brian-kemp-audit-certified-election-results/)

Georgia 2nd recount confirms election result by about 12,000 votes.   I think that makes it more certain then the Florida recount of 20 years ago which also led to appeals and disputes into December on various details in similar upset, though that wasnt mid term.




Outcome for each state has to be collated into a final result, with neither side conceding it has to be done manually via the electoral college which does meet on the 14th December I believe it is then.  When thats done its only paperwork left but in theory either side can win till electoral college themselves take the vote.  We do know the result almost certainly but in theory the supreme court can make rulings to upset and alter matters, its not going to happen in any scenario I've read.   All these dates are established and I always thought the 48hr mention on lots of presidential bets would prove too optimistic, even best case it was longer then that to count properly from what I saw.

Really its a waiting game, the interesting bet imo is the Senate run off which can drastically alter the balance of power.  Strategically that matters way more then wondering about 1 in a million alternate outcomes elsewhere.

What happened in 2016 by the way, did the betting sites pay after a couple of days, since Clinton conceded within 24 hours ? After all the process is the same, by then not all states had finished counting, the electors voted in December, etc. Conceding is nothing official.

Yes, iirc in nitrogen they paid the bets between two to three days (still have it archived in my account) I can't say if it's the same with most of the bookies back then. Even if the losing side concedes or not that's up to them to settle bets at their own preferred pace if it backfires then that's their fault for paying early. At this point it seems very unlikely it goes the other way around.  

ROFL. If they are waiting for Trump to concede, then I am afraid that it is not going to happen anytime soon. The POTUS results came out more than a month ago. Those who won the bets deserve their winnings by now. I believe that none of the gambling sites have any solid reason to delay the payment, after December 14. That is when the electoral college will vote for the new president. The outcome of the voting from December 14 should be considered as final.

At BetMoose, for example, they have paid out some and withheld payments for other bets, in some cases even extending the outcome determination date until January 7th, it depends on the bet's stated decision logic. While annoying, in the eyes of a business it's probably better to annoy some bettors rather than risk that one in a million chance of Trump somehow 'winning', especially with how much money there is on some propositions.

It's no skin off of my nose when the bookies payout on the POTUS wager, but I'm wondering if there was any disclaimers made by any of the gambling sites to say they wouldn't payout until the 20th of January which is when it looks like some sites are wait for to ensure they get their payouts right.

(and do these sites assert they have funds on hand to actually pay out the wagers one way or the other?)??

Most of them are covered by their Terms of Service or FAQ stating they have the final say or something similar. As long as they don't stall with paying out past the inauguration date no one is going to reasonably say that they're scamming.


Sites where only players bet among themselves shouldn't have any issues paying out.

Many russian books already paid to who bet on Biden. And i doubt that they will revise their decision even if Trump will win (this is like 1-2 % i think). Too low risk for such outcome, and books don't want to angry people and want some money flow (some of winner will definitely bet on other games and so on)

many smaller books can afford the risk because they aren't that exposed to bets backing trump. as small books, they only took a limited number of bets on the presidential election. on the <1% chance a trump victory emerges they can still survive, so it's worth it to them to pay out punters to free up money flow like you said.

betfair or any other books of large scale can't do that. right now they have $2.1 billion exposed just to the trump-biden match. if they pay out and the results change, they'll be immediately bankrupted---out of business permanently, and likely also facing lawsuits from burnt bettors.

it's all a matter of scale, really.

If the official count will favor Trump or a judge decision will say that Trump wins, I guess we need to accept that result but I'm expecting a little chaos here especially coming from the supporters of Biden, God forbid, so I want Biden to be declared as the winner.


Glad to hear it, but what about other sites? are they going to do the same?

Trump probably has even smaller chance to win, more like 0.0000001%
I could bet that all books will pay out Biden wins before mid-February next year.

time will tell.

there's still some free money sitting there on FTX contracts.

Owch, no insurance can cover that.   The house is the middleman to bets like this and taking a stance that its impossible for one side to win is to take on this bet with the house money so yea thats a fair point.   Obviously they'd only pay out once, not 2.1bn twice over.   They'd lose customers from failing to honor the final result I guess, its so incredibly unlikely that I think some of this delay is also just about retaining funds and utilising the capital which is to the advantage of the house in that they'd normally not have the excuse to keep this amount of capital on their books for this long without it costing anything.

Every time I read about Supreme court rulings recently it reflects the common or laymans (neutral) take that there is no conspiracy or excuse to be taking exceptional measures nor has any real evidence to represent this view been forthcoming.    Its also true there is at least some cases of fraud, without doubt it exists but not in a statistically significant way which is where the layman gets lost I think.   Its just not probable in any way, the 14th Dec should be taken as the nail in the coffin to this argument imo

I thought that it's all final and Biden is the clear winner of this election. But with those suits and formality that Trump is filing, this made other bookies to have a delay for the payment of those Biden bettors.
Just a little more patience for those Biden winners, for sure they'll send the payouts as soon as possible. Other bookies have been doing it, they probably want to be sure that there will be no ruckus if something unexpected happens.

Trump can file a suit but the suit is just an arrogant denial that he is beaten by Biden, they cannot sustain it, he had the money that's what rich dirty politicians are doing, file a suit so he can give his supporters and allies reason to still support him, here in our country, politicians are always in denial that they've lost in the election, they always think that they are cheated.

It's his right, his camp believe that there was a cheating, so they filed a lawsuit, and we don't know what would be the decision for that, however, people believe that Biden won clearly the election and there was no cheating. Talking about being rich, it's not only Trump that is rich, Biden is rich as well because he is a millionaire. https://www.marieclaire.com/politics/a34205042/joe-biden-net-worth/

Isn't it obvious that who ever will win the elections, the loser will claim that there was a cheating in the election. I think the results are transparent and trump should admit his defeat. I am not favoring trump or biden, but the should set an example and accept the defeat with an open heart.

Even bettors already know who wins, even if they back on Trump they already know Biden wins and they have accepted the loses, however, it's not them who complain, it's Trump who made a complain and bookies needed an official announce of the elections before they will grade the bets.

Presidential elections or whatever do not always go smoothly even if it is decided who will win and that happens in any country, and whoever wins and loses will try to find the slightest mistake to bring up.
And it's clear that Biden won absolutely without cheating and supporters on both sides admit it, and maybe Trump still doesn't believe he lost, so whatever it is Trump is just trying to bring up the slightest mistake even if it's not necessary. exaggerated.

If we will continue to talk about that, it will be a never ending discussion as both candidates have their own supporters, we should be talking about "bitcoin betting" as the title says, and until now bets are not graded yet since there has been no official announcement that is release.

Since there's a lawsuit, it will be the course which will judge that, let's leave that to them as they are the experts on that field and it's their job.
Let's be objective here as this has been taken so long, people are already bored on waiting.

All this drama comes to an end tomorrow, when the electoral college meets and select Joe Biden as the next president of the United States. For those gambling sites which hasn't processed the POTUS 2020 bets, this is the maximum they can delay the decision. Once Biden is elected by the EC, they need to close the bets and distribute the winning amount to all those who made their bet in favor of Biden (I am referring to those sites which hasn't processed the bets yet).

The U.S. presidential election was the largest single event in gambling history. Although the results have shown Joe Biden superior.
The euphoria of the United States Presidential Election is not yet over for gamblers who win bets for Joe Biden, of course,
because it has not paid them. They had to wait for the official payment when there was an announcement that Joe Biden was winning
the U.S. presidential election. And in practice, it took two months to get the official results passed by Congress. So they will usually
settle bets after the declaration of the winning results from the official news site and speeches by the losing presidential candidate.

There is no arrogant denial in filing a suit or claims about what you believe in,this happens before though it was long time ago and the court favor the claimant because of a complete proof they present.
and besides it was just your opinion since you don't really know what happens and only basing on the news you read and not even live in US so never put a word as if you are affected on the situation.
everyone has the right specially for a President of one of the strongest and popular country in the world.
His is not denying being beaten but he just don't want to keep silent about the things he believes that happens in election.
This will be settle depend on how long the case will run and what is the assessment of the court.

Despite the clear result of Biden's victory, Trump will surely do everything to support his lawsuit. I don't believe that there has been huge cheating because most people in the US are really against the leadership of Trump.  Every election has this kind of drama because the administration can't always accept their losses. I just hope that this drama could come to an end because those bettors who have their bets for their Biden have been waiting for their rewards.

Tomorrow is payday for bets made a long time ago, no new news or court result has appeared to alter the electoral college vote tomorrow.   Even faithless voters or other hazards are not near to an obstacle large enough to change the result overall.    I'm noticing one story about agencies being hacked but I don't think this is relevant to the election just the ongoing espionage hidden war between countries to breach internal data, happens in business too and isn't going away but nothing with a knock on effect to alter an election result  https://us.cnn.com/2020/12/13/politics/us-agencies-investigating-hacking-data-breach/index.html

Its always possible but really theres no excuse after this, we bet on the election result itself and the college vote is the final part.   The race resets and starts over for the next 4 years, its not a large amount of time vs the damage done for little evidence to continue the dispute.

Why i smell that you are supporting Trump or you maybe had bet on him as a winner  ::)
The USA elections is one of the transparent elections in the globe and don't expect federal institutions want to support one candidate against the other. Both parties have their ways to sheat but this in/by manupilating voters and not destroy the country for the presidential. I am not supporting one against the other, but i believe that USA has a great democtratic policies. It's not that easy for someone to manipulate the votes once reach the box .
If i had to bet before the elections, surely i had chosen Joe Baiden because Trump already knew that he is a loser and has no way but to create a fake fight against ghosts .

In a few hours from now, the US Electoral College will confirm Joe Biden as the president of the United States, and within one month he is going to take charge. Trump is still refusing to acknowledge his defeat, but seems to have softened his stance recently. The lawsuits will go on for many months (or even years), but they will make no difference to the outcome. I am glad that almost all of the gambling sites have processed the results, rather than keeping their customers waiting.

well, seems like freebitcoin would pay out bets today in favor of Biden of course.
as I posted before FTX contracts go until February 1st so it's just a matter of going there and grabbing some free money.

This is not a new tactic. Some of the gambling platforms have used silly excuses before to deny winning amount to deserving people. US based gambling sites can't do that, as they will be taken t o court if they attempt to do anything even remotely similar. I am not sure what we can do against such gambling platforms which are based in various island nations. This is the reason why I stick to reliable gambling sites, which have been online for at least 2-3 years.

This electoral college votes outcome should finalize the results for all bookmakers to concede in paying out their customers and quit denying/stalling out in keeping from paying them their rightful winnings.


Atleast freebitcoin has their customer's loyalty in mind and not just dragging it out like those sites which have pinnacle as their bookmaker and using them as a shield at this point to refused in paying those players out who bet on biden a month or so ago. So they held on to players funds for this long and are able to get away with this while bitcoin price rose 12-14% since the bets were placed?
There has to be some kind of law against this and I can't imagine what the guy who had over a million dollar bet on biden to win has in mind against the bookmaker who took his bet and has had their money for this long.

OK interesting.


Actually there is no right to file frivolous lawsuits, that can lose you money, or even your job for the attorneys. In fact plenty of these lawsuits have been dropped before the court hearing, because the judges would have probably sanctioned the lawyers for bringing lawsuits without any bit of evidence.

A big shame to them, they are not supposed to run such competition if they don't want to give the rewards to the winners. Even it was not finally declared that Biden won the Presidential race a few days after counting is done but it clear for everyone who wins the election. These greedy people must be put in jail if they are not able to pay. If they are not going to pay their obligation legally, then such a time that bettors will act in the wrong way just to get their money back.

That is right mate, this will never happen if we are using a legit platform or those site/s that have been trusted for many years in providing good services.

Calm down mate, gambling sites always have a rules to follow, when they say they'll wait for the official announcement, they would do that as they are not only catering bettors backing on Biden, they also have bets backing Trump and one party will complain if the rules are not followed, hence it will result to ruining the reputation of the site.

Looks to be a straightforward Electoral College vote... Biden takes the required votes.

With the same "historic" 306 votes as occurred four years ago.  

A nice win and we should give thanks to all the Trump supports who funded the various legal challenges that proved the Biden / Harris ticket won the Presidential election of 2020 by throwing out all claims of voter fraud.  Surely now those gambling sites that have held off will finally payout what has been know for many weeks.

It was just a formality. The results were known many weeks before. And this time the margin of victory was not that thin, unlike the case we had in 2000 (when the election was decided based on the outcome from a single state - Florida, where the winning margin was just 0.009% or 537 votes). Theoretically there is a chance of faithless electors, but in real life it seldom occurs.

@Timelord2067 all the sportsbooks should instantly settle their elections bets now, because Trump has officially lost, and now if they delay it then one should immediately open a scam accusation thread against them. Furthermore it seems that Trump will yet not concede, and I wonder how long can he continue with these allegations, as it’s officially over for him.

Source:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/14/senate-republicans-biden-win-445309

It's time to close everything about the recent election because even what Trump's want to prove yet everything is Pointing the win to Biden so move on and be professional enough to accept defeat.
There is another chance for Him and try to take that in future,but for now give the presidency to the winning opponent so America will start a new now.
because this hindering the good reputation of election if will continue to prevent Biden to be proclaimed .

How can those who hold bets on these sportsbetting sites file a scam accusation?
They will just tell you their odds provider has not settled the bets due to their rules on elections.
Just like with pinnacle refusing to grade these bets where BetBTC has them as their sole odds provider, having already saying it on their thread.

All 2020 US Presidential bets have been settled at BetBTC.

We appreciate your patience.  ;)

^^ I can confirmed this! ^^
After along while my bet has finally settled. :o

Looks like pinnacle your provider finally came to their senses and entered into a settlement with all their players. ;)

Wow!! That's the way to go. Whether the election results will be challenged or not is an entirely different topic. But the gamblers have already waited for more than one month. It is not fair to keep them waiting for anymore, especially when the results are certified, and the electoral college has voted in favor of Biden. I just hope that the other gambling sites will also follow your example.

While I am sorry for the gamblers that had to wait that long at the same time it is not the fault of the casinos, what happened was something completely out of the norm, while Biden seemed to have an advantage the results were so close in many states that they refused to give the electoral votes to Biden so he could not be proclaimed the winner.

Even Biden was moderate enough to not proclaim himself the winner and was smart enough to delay this until he was officially recognized as such, then it came the legal battles and when you understand this it is natural the bets have been set until today.

as promised the bet on freebitco.in have been paid out too (in favor of Biden, of course).

there's still some free money going on ftx, seems like the contract will stay active, which is a bit weird since the outcome is already known...
but well, not complaining.

Good that the sites who promised it settled.


Actually Trump "only" got 304 Electoral College votes in 2016, and called that historic and a landslide (it was neither), so Biden's victory is bigger.

Up until inauguration day, Trump, like it or not, is still the POTUS.  At noon on inauguration day, President elect Biden and Vice President Elect Harris will be sworn in at which point Trump becomes an ordinary citizen - one of the few in the US who have an "Honorific" in this case "Mr. President".  Although people call him Mr. President, after noon on inauguration day, The Don is just another Joe out of a job.

Once Biden is sworn in as POTUS, Trump can be politely asked to leave any Government property (including the White House) and, if he refuses, he can be arrested for trespass and force-ably removed.

I think Trump will leave peacefully at noon and go down in history like Nixon did with either a one finger salute, or, more likely, for the first time in his presidency, act the statesman he should have been.  Thank the staff, salute the guards and get on Marine One and be flown to the airport where he'll get on one of his "Trump" logo aircraft and fly to Florida to play golf the same afternoon.

I'm not sure why any gambling sites would still be holding onto wagers for the presidency - in four years' time there should a a proper disclosure on which day they will pay out so that it is much clearer when and what circumstances the win occurs.


Not sure where I heard the numbers were identical, if Biden got two more votes then that's just another slap-down for Trump by Biden/Harris.

Dear Community,

The 2020 US Presidential Election bets have been graded - finally!

Our thanks to everyone for your participation on this thread. What a rollercoaster ride - your comments have been both insightful and at times hilarious! (Yes, we read every comment on the thread!)

We have updated our post-US presidential election page, just for you (https://bit.ly/3njrOil).
You can also access the page from your bet history.

Cheers,
Team Cloudbet

Trump might have received slightly less number of Electoral College votes compared to what Biden received in 2020, but the fact remains that he won most of the states with a larger margin. During this time, Biden won 3 states with margins of 20,000 or less (Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin). Back in 2016, Trump had a margin of less than 20K only in the state of Michigan.

Do you mean the swing states ? Because overall Trump got 3 million votes less than Clinton, and now 7 million votes less than Biden...

Keeping in mind he's an incumbent, which usually is a huge advantage in the US. Only presidents considered as failures have lost reelection...

really curious to see that now that the decision is 100% sure what FTX will do with their contracts.

https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD and https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPSTAY/USD will really stay running until February 1st or they could be terminated earlier?

maybe this is a question for Sam.

they said from day 1 that tokens settle on february 1. i'm pretty confident that's what will happen.

amazingly, TRUMPSTAY is still trading at 0.078. ::)


that would be nice, but it's impossible to do in a way where books are 100% hedged in every situation. in 99.9% of cases, i think we could assume that by the december 14th election certification, that the results have be decided. but what about that 0.01% chance? what if legal challenges (more substantial ones than seen in this election) drag out into january? if they promise in the terms a specific date and the results still aren't clear at that time, they're put between a rock and a hard place: pay out when there is uncertainty or otherwise risk massive lawsuits.

that's why it's always gonna be "at their discretion".

in fact, technically, congress can still overturn biden's electoral college win. there is already one house representative vowing to challenge it when they reconvene in january. he needs to find a republican senator to co-sign the challenge---no one has stepped up yet. :P
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/15/technology/can-trump-still-win.html

yes figmentofmyass, I'm expecting that to be true as well.

and also yes: there's still some free money on the table, TRUMPGO is trading at 0.943 to so for those willing to hold until February there's an easy 3-4%+ free to be grabbed there.

just a matter of going there and longing TRUMPGO to 1 usd or shorting TRUMPSTAY to 0 usd...

It is understandable that all casinos wanted to wait until it was official, but I never really understood what "official" meant. I mean votes came out, who do you think counts those votes? Biden supporters?

I mean did people assumed that Biden voters just went out and counted the voters and throw out all trump votes and double counted Biden votes or something?

It was official results on day one, well some states counted a bit later but it was counted, when votes are counted and results are in, we have the result, what else do you really need? All the legal battles? Those were for the show, those were there so that Trump could say he didn't lose, he was frauded and that is what he was trusting, because he KNEW he lost, but he would never dare say that and those legal battles were all part of the show.

In USA electors select president not people. in 2016 six electors did not cast vote as they should. Not sure how was this year.  It is a strange system. Electors could simply decide to vote differently as voters decided in their state. Those electors will probably not be electors anymore next year.

Of course, i would not advertise dishonest book.   ;D

And if to talk without irony, it's obvious that after decision of Supreme Court and college of voters there is no reason to not pay bids. Everything is over, Trump has lost. If some book doesn't pay your reward, you should pay attention to it.

Most states have passed laws disallowing faithless electors. Their vote is not counted, and someone else takes their place and votes correctly. They might also risk prison sentences.

Wondering on what are the things that theyre trying to wait up since its clear that it had been decided.What they are trying to fight for? Its just useless because it is over.
Biden is already on the set and trying to reforming things because if it was still an unsure decision then he wont really be sitting up there are the new president.
They cant really just accept the truth that they have lots and trying to fight into something which cant really be changed.Bookies that had paid out on bettors of Biden then
i would consider to be on that ethical side of things but for those who have not then i would already have doubts on using them.

had no doubt at all that they'd pay, and pay in favor for Biden and not for the loser side.
all the question around it was WHEN.
seem like that question is solved once and for all.

The counting has been completed for months now, anyone who assumes that there have been injustices is disrespecting the work that has been done by so many people up to now. Undoubtedly some cases of illegal modification of the results, of some single votes, have been made, but this happens in any country in the world, and is legally punishable. However, these cases are very uncommon and would not affect the overall result.

Just out of curiosity, are there still gambling sites that didn't settle the bet even there is a clear winner already? Fiat and crypto-gambling site?

Post-election investigations should not be included as a factor in these bets.

Or they are just waiting until Biden officially assumes office next month, January 2021?

I guess known or popular gambling or betting sites might already give reward to those who bet for Biden since it's obvious and voting seems really in favor in him, those sites should already received many questions form their bettors that's why they already give the rewards, however we're not sure in some gambling sites which are not yet popular if what their excuse in not paying yet.

popular bookie sites are worth it and are afraid that what people think of them .

it wont be acceptable if the whole site gets affected by this single betting event but there are other types of betting where they can make more money than this election betting thing , they dont need to feel regret after paying the winners because they can recover what they are going to pay .

non popular bookie sites didnt care at all because they are not popular and if they arent popular , less people complain on them .

I see, thank you mate. So it's a real thing that other sport betting sites don't settle the bet yet.

What's their excuse? And can't believe other bettors chose a not popular site and entrust their funds there for long?

Hoping we can have the names of those sites involved. A bit unprofessional to me if that's their approach to their customers. Next time, terms should be much clearer and organized in case the same scenario that happened last US Presidential election or any event will happen again in the future.

This is not a valid excuse. The bets were placed on the elections. The results were certified and the process was completed last week. When Biden will take charge is not relevant here. What I am saying is that delaying the process any further will only tarnish the reputation of the online casino, in case they care about it. Gamblers are noticing which of the sites are processing the results on time, and which ones are delaying it.

as published a couple of times, FTX future contracts are still open until February 1st, so there's some free money here:
https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD

just a matter of buying TRUMPGO tokens and waiting for it.
it'll expire to 1 usd on february 1st.

Glad I went with Cloudbet on this run, I couldn't resist betting on this year's presidential election because I just knew it was going to be action packed. Low key happy the fund came through while Bitcoin is up, if it had come any earlier I would've sold winnings between 18-20k - No Cap.  ;D

I still remember committing a big blunder in this election. Before the COVID 19 pandemic hit the US, Trump was the favorite and Biden's odds were very attractive. I thought about placing a bet on Biden, but wanted to wait for a few more weeks so that the odds would get even better. But the odds tilted to Biden and in the end I decided not to place a bet rather than making one with lower odds.

interesting, would love to have access to odds data change over time.
I suppose this is not available anywhere, right?

may be hard as it also varies from website to website (different houses, different rules)

but it may give some good information to work with and learn about house behavior related to population choices.

figmentofmyass posted such info graphic in one of the threads about US elections if i remember correctly. Anyway, you can find rating graph with Biden/Trump, take one keypoint, look what odds was at this keypoint and then using ratio between candidates ratings at any needed point as a coefficient, use it on odds.

Maybe not too good in words, if it will be needed, you can ask me i will show you calculations.

Well finally it luckily turned into a profit for you as I understand from what you're saying.
But when did you get paid by Cloudbet exactly please?

Yes, there are. Some bets were also created weeks after the election, some don't necessarily involve honest winning of the election, but otherwise 'winning', some are about the upcoming electoral session's vote counting, or the inauguration, etc.


Often it comes up to the wording of the bet or its initially drawn up decision logic.


As long as BTC price isn't collapsing most won't complain too much about waiting for the few yet unsettled bets till Jan 6th (Jan 20th in some cases).


Yes, there are some differences, but to get a rough idea take a look https://polymarket.com/, it has nice graphs and a clean interface.

Strike while the iron is hot. Make the best wager when available and by all means make a secondary wager if the price gets better.

I don't know if this affect the odds, but due to trumps irrational decision before, it result to some things that affects his winning vote and it result in favor to Biden, and since trump started to sit in America, many people don't like him, especially because he is a businessman most of his decision is based on his experience, he is trained to be like businessman but not like to be politician, if I will vote I will bet in Biden for sure.

Trump made a lot of bad decision during the covid-19 pandemic, the case of infected people have skyrocketed and the economy have struggled a bit, so people were disappointed and election is the best way to show their frustration so they vote for a new president.

I don't follow the odds before the covid-19 but I only see the odds and Trump was the underdog, same as last election.


It doesn't really matter if he only listened to his advisers and make decisions that is beneficial for the majority of people, but he failed them so they got their revenge by not letting him win. I'm just talking about the majority of voters as this is a close one I believe.

Trump was placed favorite to win from what I saw not because of the politics just from being a sitting president and look at the history of wins, its been a long time nearly 30 years since we didnt have a 8 year term for the white house administration.    As soon as the widespread pandemic hit, the economy fell and then you again have a reason to refer to history and how a loss can easily register in years like this.   None of that is specific so I dont know why people kick up alot fuss, it can and has happened like this before.


Familiar mistake to me, the situation favors the bet and the trend even is towards that story or outcome and yet I lack the trigger finger to take on what I already knew was a good bet just not quite as nice odds.  Very common, lots probably do similar.   I'd argue if uncertain reduce your size and go ahead if only for the sake of improving your game and attitude in these dilemmas.   Some bets I place just for a marker, I have confidence better next time and its future profits if I was on a good track in my thinking that day; the actual payout is only part of the win.

This has got to be the final nail in the trump administration's coffin so that there is no more discussion about it in the coming year:
To show just how incompetent their failed attempts to offset the results of voting system with these characters words.
First witness:
Melissa Carone
https://www.refinery29.com/en-ca/2020/12/10208342/melissa-carone-rudy-giuliani-michigan-election-witness
https://i.ibb.co/ryrbVKt/100k.jpg (https://ibb.co/kcC3tVy)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6o4DLcH9U_Y

The rest of these jokes of the political party just speak for themselves:
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/k5xwgm/team_trumps_latest_witness_is_an_absolute/
https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2020/12/10207020/ivanka-trump-deposed-illegal-activity-jail-history
This guy was one of trump's cavalcade of witnesses?
A self proclaimed ghostbuster? :D
https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2020/12/10207802/jesse-morgan-usps-truck-driver-missing-ballots-ghosts
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/one-trump-election-fraud-witnesses-194256049.html

I would rather prefer to have the Bitcoins in my wallet, rather than trusting the gambling site. The exchange rates are rocketing upward and very soon we will witness a number of gambling sites closing down, vanishing with the funds of their customers (similar to what happened in 2017 December). No matter how trustworthy a particular gambling site is, I don't want to trust them at this point.

if someone want to bet for trump , i am selling my waiting bet
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5291889.msg55646497#msg55646497

A fool and their money are soon departed.


You would be well advised to admit your candidate lost the election and you in turn lost your wager and move on.

Lesson learned?

Whose person on his right mind to waste up 0.2 BTC even if he knows that Trump doesnt really have a chance ?

There are people who cant really just move on and accept the reality but instead he already make up some realizations and trying to pass out to others
and make himself to return even a part of his money that he bet? Wise fella but wont be enough.  ;D

Only crazy people will consider what you offer, we all know that it's only a matter of time before Biden take the White House, you are attempting to scam people by offering a losing bet, it's impossible to make a turnaround now, even die-hard Trump believers already conceded that they've lost the fight, so better move and accept your loss.

that would be nice, would you mind sharing it here?


have you considered that maybe people don't like Trump not because he's a businessman but because he's a jerk?


you're right in terms of safety, not your keys not your coins
but some sites like freebitco.in and FTX are trsutable and there are high probability that you'll have no problem with them, as stated before.

---

thx for the link @malevolent
polymarket charts are great.

If these sites allow us to export the private keys, then I don't have a problem with them. Otherwise I need to think about it. Keeping my hard earned coins for many months with a third party scares me, even if the site is quite trusted by the community. For me, it is a red flag. If I want to make a bet on 2024, I would only trust those sites where I can access the private keys to my coins.

@Sithara007 your concerns are valid and earlier even I had the same concerns, but then I decided to leave my coins on freebitco because of the interest they give, and then whenever I wanted to redeem I was able to do so. I also can’t say that leaving coins on sites is a wise idea because of so many scams that take place, but in Freebitco case I personally feel safe to leave my coins there because I feel they’re trustworthy so you can try leaving few coins there.

I do not mind leaving my coins on freebitco, and as you said, the interest can give us additional income, although it will depend on the amount we deposit. But on the other side, I will not let myself to store my coins on that site because the risk will be too big. But for freebitco, I trust the site and I believe that the site will not run away. Besides that, freebitco has good reputation among the other site.

I don't blame you for not trusting and totally understand your point
in the end it's a matter of risk/rewards
you don't have to keep all your coins on the same place (this wouldn't be so smarteven if you hold it on a hardware wallet inside a safe)

that said
it will be hard to find a website that let you bet on the elections in a trustless way,the closer I think we'll come to that is some smart contract on the ethereum chain, but you'd still have some degree of trust on the smart contract itself (which is usually auditable but not 100% free of the possibility of issues - like everything in life)

It is okay if you will not keep your coins in freebitco or the other sites. That will have our consideration to prevent any scam that can happen in the future, and I believe you are doing the best thing for yourself. Mt. Gox is the biggest lesson for us to always careful to decide. But at least, I still want to get additional income from freebitco, but I will withdraw all of the funds in that site when I can see my profit become bigger.

Correct , things happen so separating is the best way to store our funds , Maybe using multiple strategy much better ,I use ledger for My main funds ,i also Risk some funds in my Mobile wallet because this is for the readiness in case i have to convert to other coins that has a good movement ,and others are in a Gambling site (Trustworthy) for My gaming purposes, specially like now that the value of Bitcoin really fly High so at least i have funds to use.
This proves one thing ,That in everything we Do ,risk is always there and even How hard we try to prevent at some point this may cross our way.

I do blame some people, I do not get how people could trust themselves more than they trust websites, that makes a lot less sense. How difficult do you think would be to hack into someones computer? From the countless times it has happened so far in history, I can say that it looks like it is something quite simple, and would be not that difficult at all.

However by the looks of it I would say freebitco.in or many other major websites are a lot harder to crack. Now you may say that "but X place got hacked!!" and I agree, there are places that gets hacked, even binance got hacked a few times yet they kept your money and gave it to people back, without any problems, HOWEVER it is obvious that people get hacked a lot more frequently, it could be any type of virus in your PC that could give all the info hacker needs in order to get all your money. Hence, I think major places are better than keeping it myself.

But I see you're promoting stake.com... so what does it mean? Stake.com allow customers to export their private keys?  ???
If not, how do you gamble on stake.com in this case?

Never ever in my gambling experience to see a platform that do able to export or give you an access to your private keys of your platform wallet. All of those are in control with the house.

So its a matter of accepting the risk when you do make out bets that might really be lasting for so long.You cant trust everyone but as if you do have any other choice?

There somewhat a sportbook that you do need to input your own address to receive directly the winnings which is on Onehash.com.

well, from the latest posts on this dicussion:

- own computer can also be hacked but is in general safer than websites, specially if you practice good habits like not installing shit on the computer, avoiding questionable websites and porn, using a VPN, password manager, etc...
hardware wallet will be even safer.

related to gambling: you probably shouldn't be gambling more than 5% of your whole portifolio anyways so it's not such a big deal to use a website like freebitco.in or FTX.

I agree with you Juggy777 Freebitcoin is online since 2013, it's one of the oldest Bitcoin platforms. Moreover interests are paid daily there unlike many other platforms. It means you can withdraw your funds whenever you want and still get the interests you earn.

I don't think that it's good idea to bet with crypto on long term outcomes, sorry. There enough legal books where you could bet with fiat money and be sure that everything will be smooth and fine. Hold crypto in your pocket. It's my advice to all

They may be operating since 2013. But that is not a guarantee that they won't run away with your money. At one point, Cryptopia was being regarded as the most trustworthy cryptocurrency exchange. That was until 2019, when they went down all of a sudden. The same happened with BTC-e. They went down in 2017, after being in continuous operation since 2012. Anyway, it is up to you to decide whether you want to trust them or not.

maybe in the US but this isn't true all around the globe.
there are countries where gambling is forbidden and one could bet with crypto, even though they woudn't be able to bet directly on their main currency.

imo using good risk management is more important than simply having a solution like "not gambling at all"

if you're talking from the idea that deflationary assets like bitcoin are not meant to be spent (incentives are higher for holding than spending) it makes sense, but anyways, each one will decide what is best for them.

Yes you are right but Cryptopia and BTC-e were exchange platforms, that's not the same.
That's why they've been hacked while Freebitcoin has never been hacked IMO.

And one more important thing is that BTC-e and  it's descendant (WEX) was operated by russians, which is never going to end well. I doubt that Freebitcoin is operated from some third world corrupted countries. Personally i don't have any problems with them (despite i used them only few times)

Now that the US congress has finally announced and affirmed the new POTUS, Biden is now formally and officially the President.

Biden officially US president with Congress affirmation (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/biden-officially-us-president-with-congress-affirmation/2101654)

I guess those bookies that have waited for this have already released most pending funds of their winners. And this thread has already served its purpose.

BetMoose still has some bets left, such as:

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-donald-trump-still-be-president-in-june-2021-best-5305
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/sleepy-joe-president-on-january-21st-2021-5370
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-donald-trump-be-president-on-january-24th-2021-5329

And some more. Trump bettors aren't taking the losses very well judging at their comments in the bets that have closed and paid out. Some apparently believe Trump is going to invoke the Insurrection Act to stay in power.

But some of the above replies should be deleted for being off-topic.

It depends on the traders because, in the past, I am not too often use Cryptopia to trade. If I am not mistaken, Cryptopia is not too big to compare to Bittrex and Poloniex, and I think that site is not too popular among the traders. Freebitcoin is one of the oldest bitcoin gambling platforms, and I think Freebitcoin does not want to run away with the member's money. I am sure they will not ruin their reputations.

Thanks for that information.

That means that there really are bookies that are still pending on this presidential bet and making another bet for their bettors to bet on. It is making the presidential election bet on their bookie to take that long.

But it's up to the bettors and looking at the first link, there's still such a volume for that bet. Wow.

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---

Yes, FreeBitcoin is very prominent which they share the interest on a daily basis, but my concern whether they will pay the reward at the current situation because the price of BTC has increased a lot in the market and whether the FreeBitcoin team has the ability to play the interest or not?

Congratulations with the successful run for the US presidential election on your bookie. Although it took a little bit than expected with the earliest result from the polls, it's been done but not peacefully for the citizens and for the affected areas.

Congratulations to the winners too.

for those who are interested FTX contracts are still running, as promised they'll keep online until february 1st.
https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD

there's some small money sitting at the table, simply long it.

free moola.

Why did you use Freebitcoin only few times if you don't have any problems with them and you are promoting them?  ??? There is something wrong with them?

There is nothing like a "trusted website" as far as cryptocurrency is concerned. If you don't own the private keys to the wallet, then it is not your coins. I am not very excited about the revenue model for Freebitcoin. What are the sources for their revenue? How do they managed to give interest to the cryptocurrency deposits? These are some red flags for me, as unlike fiat currency Bitcoin never provides interest on deposits.

Fiat currency deposits can get interest payments for you, because fiat currency is vulnerable to inflation. So in order to keep the purchasing power constant, the interest payments are made. That is not the case with Bitcoin, as it is protected against inflation. Now if someone is providing interest payments on Bitcoin deposits, then their revenue model needs to be thoroughly checked to see whether it is viable in the long term.

many things to consider here:
some websites can be trusted more than others, many exchanges in the past have been hacked and paid back like binance (has the SAFU funds), bitmex (had their insurance fund, asn't hacked), FTX would probably pay back if they had problems, etc...

some websites could provide bitcoin interest from loans which is the case on compound, harvest.finance and aave, even though the interest is usually smaller than freebitco.in

maybe @TheQuin can help to clarify that on Freebitco.in main thread here on the gambling area:
 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=320959.15020

BTC-e was forcibly put out of business as I understand it, alot of sites are better at long term stability then I manage myself which is poor to say but unfortunately true and probably fair for many peoples organisation skills.   Ive forgotten balances on long term sites and come back five years later and its been ok, thats both bad on my part but also fortunate in the end.   I definitely get the reservations though, simple take is dont hold all in one place anyhow.


Really I would have said Tulsi but ok I guess thats reasonable though kinda chilling bet to place.    I dont think the odds are long enough, Im horribly biased towards the long shot bets that somehow turn out.   In this crazy world I like the trump jr. bet more though I have no belief that occurs.    I'd have to hold fire just now, I dont see the long shot as a reasonable bet right now and did anyone have a clue on Trump when he was 500 to 1 really.   I need to stop using that turn of phrase considering the sour political atmosphere right now.

Right now it looks as if Kamala has the best chances for any candidate in 2024. After the capitol fiasco, I don't think that GOP still has a chance in 2024 POTUS election. And it is almost sure that Biden won't be contesting for re-election after four years. Being the VP, Kamala would be the automatic choice. I would rather say that anything above 1.50 is good for Kamala. Because she is miles ahead of others in the 2024 race. And regarding Tulsi, she has fallen out with the Democrat party. Don't think she has much of a chance, unless the party affiliation is changed.

the chance of predicting correctly the results of 2024 right now, imo is pure gambling.
a lot changes in 4 years in politics, and some of the candidates we can bet on right now may not even be on the elections when the time comes...
odds may seem attractive but I don't think it's worth it

would love to be proven wrong here.

Who cares about that? Since interests are paid daily, you can leave whenever you want if they are unable to pay the interests anymore.
That's not like most of platforms where you lose your interests if you withdraw your funds before the payout day of the month...

She can become a good candidate but it's still three years from now so many things can happen before the next election but if she is gearing for that position he needs to perform better while she is in office that will he her biggest resume for the coming election, the other party will also groom their own candidate, she cannot be consider a strong candidate yet.

That's correct, it's gambling because we never know what will come, and actually 4 years is too long, if Trump's satisfaction record has decline in less than a year before of the pandemic, it could also happen to anyone who are in the office now. Politics is also a big game, opposite parties will find a way to take destroy the reputation of their opponent and for a long period of time, that means they have a lot of time to find a way to do that.

Biden will not finish his mandate, he just can't do it because of his mental issues, he will get impeached in the next few months IMO. So Kamala won't need to wait 4 years to become the next president of the united states.

LOL.. mental issues? Biden does seems to have some serious health issues. But that doesn't mean that he may get impeached. If his health condition worsens, then he may be forced to resign and as per the protocol Kamala Harris will become the president. So by the time of the 2024 election, there is a strong chance that Kamala will be fighting for her re-election.

@Saint-loup knowing if platoforms are solvent and where the interest comes from is a fair question that all reasonable investor should ask ;)


indeed, if making a bet out of pure gamble probably better to make one with a shorter time to wait for the results...

Yes you're right he can just resign but since Trump had been impeached 2 times during his mandate by democrats I think Republicans will want to get their revenge against them and they'll do the same thing to Biden.

not the biggest expert on usa politics here but have you consider that maybe it'll be better for the country if they just let the guy govern instead of calling and impeachment for any president who is elected, over and over and over?

LOL  :D yes that would be a better thing for the country IMO but do they really care about their country? That's the question.
Politicians like power not democracy...

you're right, it's way more about power than anything else.
so funny (and a bit creepy) how the politics in Brazil followed USA, a bit, with Borsalino (the trump of the tropics like they say...) same same but different.

curious to see how world politics will develop in the next 2 decades with crypto gaining more space and the US becoming less dominant (possibly, but I'd bet on that)