Bitcoin betting on the 2020 US Presidential Election | Trump vs Biden

[slapper]

Is it official already? Congratulations to all bettors who placed bet on Biden as I see on the news Trump says he is going to file a case since he believe that there's cheating going on, what do you think about that?

According to reports Biden wins presidency on the 2020 US Presidential Election, but as it has expected Donald Trump refuses to acknowledge. He has already filing a case so take over of presidency won't take place as usual. Anyway, I don't bet too much but I'd placed a bet on Trump and I lost.

Yes, it seems that some people are a little bit late of news and current events. Anyway, I just wonder who are those people that are actually losing bitcoin in the betting. Are they not regretting now that bitcoin is having a bullrun after losing their btc in the betting? I wish someone could show up and make testimonies either winning or losing btc after the presidential election.

Why should they regret after they make a bet? They must have afforded their loss so that they decided to join the game. Well, maybe some of them do regret but it does not mean all of them. Moreover, those who make bets on Biden certainly earn a huge amount of money. And if they used bitcoin as a form of transaction, probably they would have earned more than 100% from both bull run and presidential betting

[Juggy777]

Is it official already? Congratulations to all bettors who placed bet on Biden as I see on the news Trump says he is going to file a case since he believe that there's cheating going on, what do you think about that?

According to reports Biden wins presidency on the 2020 US Presidential Election, but as it has expected Donald Trump refuses to acknowledge. He has already filing a case so take over of presidency won't take place as usual. Anyway, I don't bet too much but I'd placed a bet on Trump and I lost.

Yes, it seems that some people are a little bit late of news and current events. Anyway, I just wonder who are those people that are actually losing bitcoin in the betting. Are they not regretting now that bitcoin is having a bullrun after losing their btc in the betting? I wish someone could show up and make testimonies either winning or losing btc after the presidential election.

Why should they regret after they make a bet? They must have afforded their loss so that they decided to join the game. Well, maybe some of them do regret but it does not mean all of them. Moreover, those who make bets on Biden certainly earn a huge amount of money. And if they used bitcoin as a form of transaction, probably they would have earned more than 100% from both bull run and presidential betting

I don’t know how long will Trump be able to hold on now, because he doesn’t have any proof to back his claims, and that’s why I feel that this drama will soon end. Furthermore I don’t think that any gambler had expected this sudden rally in bitcoin prices, but I also think that many of them won’t be upset, because they would be used to the fluctuations in bitcoin prices by now.

Source:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/11/election-2020-updates-biden-transition-trump-honors-veterans-day/6246438002/

[Timelord2067]

I don’t know how long will Trump be able to hold on now, because he doesn’t have any proof to back his claims,

Trump will hold on until mid December when the College Votes are counted then on the 7th of January 2021 the new President is formally announced and two weeks later on the 20th of January 2021, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the President of the United States of America.

Trump doesn't ever have to concede.  ON the 21st of January 2021 Trump will be an ordinary citizen and can be asked to leave the White House OR be charged with trespass.

 

[Betwrong]

I don’t know how long will Trump be able to hold on now, because he doesn’t have any proof to back his claims,

Trump will hold on until mid December when the College Votes are counted then on the 7th of January 2021 the new President is formally announced and two weeks later on the 20th of January 2021, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the President of the United States of America.

Trump doesn't ever have to concede.  ON the 21st of January 2021 Trump will be an ordinary citizen and can be asked to leave the White House OR be charged with trespass.

 

That's when I would payout, if I were a betting site. The probability of Trump's winning is low, but not zero. It's still risky right now to payout Biden bettors. What if Trump wins? Would it be possible to collect the money back? No.

Btw, who else, apart from freebitco.in, is still keeping those bets on pending? I personally know only one such site, I mean, freebitco.in. And I think they are doing it right.

[l3pox]

<...>

I made a post about it today, you can check it out. In short, I think sites which still keeping it at pending are doing the right thing.

Right now no one is accepting bets on the next president, but there are places where you can bet on Trump conceding defeat, like "Will the Steelers Lose Before Trump Concedes the Election?", for example.

do you have the link for the post?

well, I get your point and makes sense, it's right that the betting websites wouldn't be able to collect the money after payouts.
and freebitcoin has a reputation so they'll probably pay out after it's fully decided.

but still:
do you know these movies where the villain or with starts to melt in green acid, and while their body burns they keep screaming things like "the power is mine, I'll come back, I'm the best" or things like that?
feels like Trump is in this position now.

[aesma]

We get mixed messages from Trump (like always, sometimes in the same sentence). From following this closely I think he is relatively close to conceding, all his lawsuits are getting thrown out, Republicans are slowly ditching him...

Now will the gambling websites pay when he concedes (if he does) or will they still wait for the certification in January, figuring out that with Trump, anything could still happen ?

[Timelord2067]

Now will the gambling websites pay when he concedes (if he does) or will they still wait for the certification in January, figuring out that with Trump, anything could still happen ?

They would only have to wait until the College Electoral votes are formally counted (which is still a few weeks away) - all court cases have to be finalised before that date.

[fortunecrypto]

We get mixed messages from Trump (like always, sometimes in the same sentence). From following this closely I think he is relatively close to conceding, all his lawsuits are getting thrown out, Republicans are slowly ditching him...

Now will the gambling websites pay when he concedes (if he does) or will they still wait for the certification in January, figuring out that with Trump, anything could still happen ?

With how things going on he should concede before it's too late he should save the little reputation left in him, he won a lot of big battles in his career as a businessman and politician, it's time to let go of this one, it's not always winning in every battle.
He is just too arrogant to see the real picture because he still sees a lot of cheering and supports coming from his followers, but these are blind supporters, Trump, and his supporters will end up blind to the truth.

[MusaMohamed]

Two missing ballots in Georgia after vote recount. Trump and his team have strong reasons and belief that something are wrong, intentionally or unintentionally.

I don't have belief that Trump can flip the final results after vote recounts in some battleground states but if he can win in Arizona or Georgia and more missing ballots are found, it means something. To flip final results, Trump need more missing ballot casts in big counties not 2 small counties.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/us/article/President-Trump-gets-more-than-1-000-new-votes-in-15734038.php
https://www.wjcl.com/article/presidential-lead-in-georgia-narrows-as-more-than-5-000-uncounted-ballots-are-discovered/34698540#

[Betwrong]

<...>

I made a post about it today, you can check it out. In short, I think sites which still keeping it at pending are doing the right thing.

Right now no one is accepting bets on the next president, but there are places where you can bet on Trump conceding defeat, like "Will the Steelers Lose Before Trump Concedes the Election?", for example.

do you have the link for the post?

well, I get your point and makes sense, it's right that the betting websites wouldn't be able to collect the money after payouts.
and freebitcoin has a reputation so they'll probably pay out after it's fully decided.

Looks like you figured that out, right? Anyways, here's the link for someone who might be interested:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=320959.msg55574893#msg55574893


Here's an interesting article by Forbes, I came across recently, regarding the subject:

One betting platform in the U.K. is holding a handle of nearly $840 million.

Apparently it's not only freebitcoin, who keeps it on pending.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Two missing ballots in Georgia after vote recount. Trump and his team have strong reasons and belief that something are wrong, intentionally or unintentionally.

I don't have belief that Trump can flip the final results after vote recounts in some battleground states but if he can win in Arizona or Georgia and more missing ballots are found, it means something. To flip final results, Trump need more missing ballot casts in big counties not 2 small counties.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/us/article/President-Trump-gets-more-than-1-000-new-votes-in-15734038.php
https://www.wjcl.com/article/presidential-lead-in-georgia-narrows-as-more-than-5-000-uncounted-ballots-are-discovered/34698540#

For all practical purposes, the outcome of the presidential election is now certain. I don't think any legal challenge or recount is going to change the outcome. Initially I was afraid that at least some of the gambling sites would use this opportunity to deny or hold back the winning amount, but it looks like they are distributing the rewards without waiting any further.

[Haunebu]

That's when I would payout, if I were a betting site. The probability of Trump's winning is low, but not zero. It's still risky right now to payout Biden bettors. What if Trump wins? Would it be possible to collect the money back? No.

Btw, who else, apart from freebitco.in, is still keeping those bets on pending? I personally know only one such site, I mean, freebitco.in. And I think they are doing it right.

Sites like Sportsbet, Stake etc are being lauded for paying quickly which is the right choice. Freebitco etc are being criticised by many gamblers. Who the heck would want to wait for months for their winnings when the result is loud and clear?

Also, Trump's chances of flipping the result are literally zero. What makes you think it isn't zero? The projections and official results match perfectly. Recounting, cries for fraud etc will change nothing.

[l3pox]

We get mixed messages from Trump (like always, sometimes in the same sentence). From following this closely I think he is relatively close to conceding, all his lawsuits are getting thrown out, Republicans are slowly ditching him...

have you heard about firehosing?
it's his techinique.
The brazilian president borsalino, which is a big fun of Trump does thesame.

thanks for the link @Betwrong


FTX just opened a new contract that expires on February 1st.
TRUMPGO and TRUMPSTAY for those who think he still has a chance.

information about it here:
https://ftx.com/trump-tokens

[figmentofmyass]

Sites like Sportsbet, Stake etc are being lauded for paying quickly which is the right choice. Freebitco etc are being criticised by many gamblers. Who the heck would want to wait for months for their winnings when the result is loud and clear?

dude, betfair hasn't paid out bets for the presidential election. they have almost $1 billion in outstanding bets. who cares what little sites like sportsbet do?

it wasn't a landslide, the count was rather close in multiple states with recounts happening or likely on the way, trump is not conceding, lawsuits are pending. i think it's rather ballsy to pay out before the projected electoral vote is absolutely certain.

Also, Trump's chances of flipping the result are literally zero. What makes you think it isn't zero?

because there are historical examples of recounts overturning election results. the supreme court could also potentially play a role. is it likely? no. is the chance non-zero? yes.

i'd put the chances at considerably less than 1%. betfair punters say 5%. nobody is right or wrong until the fat lady sings.

[aesma]

FTX just opened a new contract that expires on February 1st.
TRUMPGO and TRUMPSTAY for those who think he still has a chance.

information about it here:
https://ftx.com/trump-tokens

Being forced to buy both tokens then get rid of one to actually bet on the right outcome is smart for them, not so much for us. I'm guessing the price of TRUMPWIN will be almost nothing.

[Timelord2067]

The key dates to watch for ( as referenced in this post: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-12/biden-trump-us-election-result-official-what-happens-next/12875804 ) are:

• 9^th December
  
  

  The states have until December 9 to settle any disputes over the election result, including recounts and court contests.

  
  
• 15^th December
  
  

  Each state's electors have until December 15 to vote by paper ballot for the president and vice-president.

• 24^th December
  
  

  Those certificates must be delivered to the designated officials by December 24.

• 7^th January
  
  

  That's when the House and Senate hold a joint session to count the electoral votes.
  
  When Biden or Trump receives 270 or more electoral votes, the President of the Senate will announce the results.

• 21^st January
  
  

  That's when the president-elect will be sworn into office on Inauguration Day.

So basically, the 7^th of January 2021 is the most likely date any gambling websites will hold onto funds until - after which point punters can query why they haven't been paid out.

(and given the rise and rise of bitcoin over the last few weeks, those funds are getting richer and richer by the hour)

[DarkStar_]

Also, Trump's chances of flipping the result are literally zero. What makes you think it isn't zero? The projections and official results match perfectly. Recounting, cries for fraud etc will change nothing.

I'll give you Biden to become next President (versus Trump) at 1.02 odds (-5000) if that's something you'd be interested in 
Basically a free 2% profit at the cost of not having access to your bet funds for roughly 2 months, if you truly believe the chances is 0%. Even better, I'll offer this as a Trump vs Biden bet; if Biden dies for whatever reason (definitely a non zero chance) before he becomes president, the bet would be void.

[MusaMohamed]

The vote recount if (can help) only help Trump to win 1 to 2 battleground states and won't help him to win the President Election 2020.

He can not accept the lost presidency and it is more difficult for him to see news on efficacy of vaccine trials were released few days after the Election day. The vote recount battle might not help him to good support for 2024 President Election. Many things can help in 4 years.

[Sanitough]

The vote recount if (can help) only help Trump to win 1 to 2 battleground states and won't help him to win the President Election 2020.

He can not accept the lost presidency and it is more difficult for him to see news on efficacy of vaccine trials were released few days after the Election day. The vote recount battle might not help him to good support for 2024 President Election. Many things can help in 4 years.

He is not looking for the opportunity to win in 2024, he wants to prove that he win this election, and if he would just accept it easily, there's no reason for him to run in 2024 as he would still not win IMO. I don't know, maybe people are already tired of him or his administration was jut hit by the bad timing of pandemic, if he had release the vaccine (if he has) before the election, then he could have won easily.

[l3pox]

FTX just opened a new contract that expires on February 1st.
TRUMPGO and TRUMPSTAY for those who think he still has a chance.

information about it here:
https://ftx.com/trump-tokens

Being forced to buy both tokens then get rid of one to actually bet on the right outcome is smart for them, not so much for us. I'm guessing the price of TRUMPWIN will be almost nothing.

you're not forced to buy both tokens.
not sure if you got the mechanic right but check that:

TRUMPSTAY will be redeemable for 1 USD if Trump is president on Feburary 1, 2020 and 0 otherwise. Similarly, TRUMPGO will be redeemable for 1 USD if Trump is not president on February 1, 2020 and 0 otherwise*.

TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE are already closed contracts, both considered that Joe Biden won and were redeemed accordingly.

If you still want to bet on the possibility of TRUMP staying or leaving office until february 1st you can use the tokens TRUMPSTAY and TRUMPGO.

The page linked allow you to create these tokens BUT you don't need to create them, you can just go directly to the contract page and trade it:
https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD
https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPSTAY/USD