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Alternate cryptocurrencies => Altcoin Discussion => Topic started by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 11:55:17 AM


Title: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 11:55:17 AM
Dear sirs,

The thread is intended for analytical discussion on Monero distribution and other economics. Please do not use it for chat. There are other threads about Monero, for cross reference they will be listed here when brought to my attention.

Many thanks to cAPSLOCK for taking the responsibility to update the Monero Community Hall of Fame thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=700400.msg7914927#msg7914927), which leaves my time available for these analyses.

Originally my intention was to buy only as much XMR as I hold BTC. (The XMR:BTC ratio of 1:1, which means that no matter which one goes to zero, as long as the other one captures all its value, you don't lose or gain anything). Then after realizing that I spend about as much time thinking about Monero than I think about Bitcoin, the 0.3% holding did not seem justified any more. Either I should stop thinking about XMR (did not work - try it!) or buy more of it. A lot more ;)

After hearing that many are positioning such that they hold 100:1 (XMR:BTC), which is about 25% in XMR, or even 400:1, which is more than half in XMR, I also set myself up to acquire a larger position. That was a contributing factor in the rise last week but I am not even nearly done. It just does not feel right to sell XMR to receive BTC when you are already as loaded with BTC as I am. All the other coins are shitcoins, so not worth buying. The expectation that others realize Monero's beauty after me, is just a repetition of how bitcoin started rising when I had already positioned myself.

Next post will be all about Monero's coin distribution between holdings of different size. I went deeper than with BTC, and the results are interesting :)


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 12:48:48 PM
It is always good to see how you rank compared to others in owning a coin. But how?

With Monero, the blockchain provides no help in determining balances. So the distribution of holdings must be constructed purely theoretically. What we use in the analysis of this post is just the following information:

- Number of XMR (about 2.2 million when this was done);
- Assumption that the distribution follows power law for the highest 3% of the holders (it does if we are talking about general wealth) - the power law distribution has the property that the owners of 100-200 coins collectively own the same number of coins as the ones owning 200-400 coins etc. But their number is 2x higher (because the other group was 2x richer), and the density is 4x more (because not only there was 2x the number of people, but also the bracket is in absolute terms only half the size);
- Below that, the distribution forms a nice bulge centered around the median holding and drops quickly towards insignificant holdings;

I have calculated 2 possibilities that give the result for both 5,200 and 13,200 holders. The results are presented in logarithmic brackets that are 0.333 log10 units wide (unlike my usual precision of 1 log unit, this gives 3 times more information). The exact form of the very top (holdings of the top-5 or so holders) affects the distribution somewhat, but with XMR it cannot be deduced either directly or statistically. I have assumed that the Case A scenario has a large outlier but Case B does not have it.


Case A - 5,200 holders:

Code:
	min		max	avg	#ppl	tot.xmr
17				280 000	1	280 000
16	100 000	-	215 443	142 600	1	171 034
15	46 416	-	100 000	66 189	3	171 034
14	21 544	-	46 416	30 722	6	171 034
13	10 000	-	21 544	14 260	12	171 034
12	4 642	-	10 000	6 619	26	171 034
11	2 154	-	4 642	3 072	56	171 034
10	1 000	-	2 154	1 426	120	171 034
9	464	-	1 000	662	300	198 468
8	215	-	464	307	750	230 301
7	100	-	215	143	1 349	192 413
6	46	-	100	66	1 349	89 310
5	22	-	46	31	750	23 030
4	10	-	22	14	300	4 276
3	5	-	10	7	120	794
2	2	-	5	3	36	111
1	1	-	2	1	11	15

Largest holdings:
1. 280,000 XMR
2. 147,000 XMR
3. 80,000 XMR
4. 65,000 XMR
5. 50,000 XMR

top holding:  280,000 XMR
top 10:  22,500 XMR
top 100:  2,200   XMR
top 1000:  285 XMR
      
# of holders: 5,188   
avg holding:  427 XMR
==  1.92 BTC
==  1,211   USD
median holding: 100 XMR   
half of the coins belong to 43 people


Case B - 13,200 holders:

Code:
	min		max	avg	#ppl	tot.xmr
17						
16	100 000	-	215 443	142 600	1,2	165 745
15	46 416	-	100 000	66 189	2,5	165 745
14	21 544	-	46 416	30 722	5,4	165 745
13	10 000	-	21 544	14 260	12	165 745
12	4 642	-	10 000	6 619	25	165 745
11	2 154	-	4 642	3 072	54	165 745
10	1 000	-	2 154	1 426	116	165 745
9	464	-	1 000	662	291	192 329
8	215	-	464	307	726	223 179
7	100	-	215	143	1 816	258 976
6	46	-	100	66	3 632	240 412
5	22	-	46	31	3 632	111 589
4	10	-	22	14	1 816	25 898
3	4,6	-	10,0	6,6	726	4 808
2	2,2	-	4,6	3,1	291	893
1	1,0	-	2,2	1,4	87	124

Largest holdings:
1. 137,000 XMR
2. 80,000 XMR
3. 65,000 XMR
4. 50,000 XMR

top holding:  137,000 XMR
top 10:  20,500 XMR
top 100:  2,150   XMR
top 1000:  270 XMR
      
# of holders: 13,234   
avg holding:  167 XMR
==  0.75 BTC
==  473   USD
median holding: 46 XMR   
half of the coins belong to 150 people.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 12:52:40 PM
Quote from: GTO911 on July 20, 2014, 12:21:36 PM
There are already 2 Economics threads, why do we need a third one?

Be kind and list all the Monero threads with links and short introduction as to why I/anyone should be following them in your next post or stop cluttering this one! :)

(Which is the reason altcoin threads are a pain to read)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: GTO911 on July 20, 2014, 01:02:08 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 12:52:40 PM
Quote from: GTO911 on July 20, 2014, 12:21:36 PM
There are already 2 Economics threads, why do we need a third one?

Be kind and list all the Monero threads with links and short introduction as to why I/anyone should be following them in your next post or stop cluttering this one! :)

(Which is the reason altcoin threads are a pain to read)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622708.0

Go check the official Monero thread and then have a look at the sister threads

And why should people follow your thread instead?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: onemorebtc on July 20, 2014, 01:06:21 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 12:48:48 PM

- Assumption that the distribution follows power law for the highest 3% of the holders (it does if we are talking about general wealth) - the power law distribution has the property that the owners of 100-200 coins collectively own the same number of coins as the ones owning 200-400 coins etc. But their number is 2x higher (because the other group was 2x richer), and the density is 4x more (because not only there was 2x the number of people, but also the bracket is in absolute terms only half the size);


i dont know if this assumption is right, because nobody knows how much others are holding.
have you something to read for me about the power law?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 01:17:53 PM
Quote from: GTO911 on July 20, 2014, 01:02:08 PM
Go check the official Monero thread and then have a look at the sister threads

And why should people follow your thread instead?

Don't be so aggressive - if you followed those threads yourself, you would have seen me there many times ;)

(I am not compelling anyone to follow my threads, people do it voluntarily!)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: GTO911 on July 20, 2014, 01:26:28 PM
@rpietila

Yes, have seen you many times there. But you seem to be trying to control the Monero economy by opening new moderated threads where you control who talks what

I have nothing against anyone, but deep down looks like rpietila is trying to pump Monero

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: David Latapie on July 20, 2014, 01:27:47 PM
Reminder for everyone: on top of OP of each "officially sanctionned" sister thread, there is a banner linking to other threads.

Soon, a Monero subforum will be necessary :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 01:31:10 PM
Quote from: onemorebtc on July 20, 2014, 01:06:21 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 12:48:48 PM

- Assumption that the distribution follows power law for the highest 3% of the holders (it does if we are talking about general wealth) - the power law distribution has the property that the owners of 100-200 coins collectively own the same number of coins as the ones owning 200-400 coins etc. But their number is 2x higher (because the other group was 2x richer), and the density is 4x more (because not only there was 2x the number of people, but also the bracket is in absolute terms only half the size);


i dont know if this assumption is right, because nobody knows how much others are holding.
have you something to read for me about the power law?

When talking about wealth distribution in general, it has been found that the wealth of the highest 3% conforms to the power law, so that there are 1/2 the number of people that are twice as rich, until at the top there is a single person.

In the world this holds true until we get to the 10-billionaires. There the trail ends, even though according to the power law, 100 times richer people should exist. It is most plausible that they have hidden the wealth.

If the number of people went to less than half when doubling the wealth, most of the wealth would belong to average people.

If the number of people were more than half when doubling the wealth, most of the wealth would belong to the ultra-rich.

Wikipedia:"power law"

For it to be realistic to apply power law to coin holdings, we need to assume that there has been enough time and liquidity for everyone to balance their holdings to exactly the amount that they wish. I think this assumption is realistic, since the exchanges have been available almost since the beginning, and there has been lots of liquidity and price action there.

What is more difficult for me to estimate is the number of holders. But as long as the power law distribution in the higher end holds true, even doubling the number of users has no large effect on the top, as evidenced by the example distributions.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 01:34:24 PM
Quote from: GTO911 on July 20, 2014, 01:26:28 PM
Yes, have seen you many times there. But you seem to be trying to control the Monero economy by opening new moderated threads where you control who talks what

I have nothing against anyone, but deep down looks like rpietila is trying to pump Monero

1. I know what place in Monero holdings I am most likely occupying. And the ones above me are not economists, so it is only my responsibility to speak out concerning topics that I find interesting and beneficial.

2. It is true that since I own only BTC and Monero, these are the only two coins I have incentive to pump. I know it is hard to swallow for shitcoiners  :D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 01:45:53 PM
Quote from: David Latapie on July 20, 2014, 01:27:47 PM
Reminder for everyone: on top of OP of each "officially sanctionned" sister thread, there is a banner linking to other threads.

Soon, a Monero subforum will be necessary :)

The banner looks nice, but like the intruder said, I would like to keep this one a little personal to me, like I have had several threads before.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: altsay on July 20, 2014, 01:57:07 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 01:34:24 PM
Quote from: GTO911 on July 20, 2014, 01:26:28 PM
Yes, have seen you many times there. But you seem to be trying to control the Monero economy by opening new moderated threads where you control who talks what

I have nothing against anyone, but deep down looks like rpietila is trying to pump Monero

1. I know what place in Monero holdings I am most likely occupying. And the ones above me are not economists, so it is only my responsibility to speak out concerning topics that I find interesting and beneficial.

2. It is true that since I own only BTC and Monero, these are the only two coins I have incentive to pump. I know it is hard to swallow for shitcoiners  :D

Not all of the altcoins that you dont own are shit, even though most of 'em are.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 01:58:41 PM
Code:
100 000	-	215 443	142 600	1	165 745
46 416	-	100 000	66 189	3	165 745
21 544	-	46 416	30 722	5	165 745
10 000	-	21 544	14 260	12	165 745
4 642	-	10 000	6 619	25	165 745
2 154	-	4 642	3 072	54	165 745
1 000	-	2 154	1 426	116	165 745
464	-	1 000	662	291	192 329
215	-	464	307	726	223 179
100	-	215	143	1 816	258 976
46	-	100	66	3 632	240 412
22	-	46	31	3 632	111 589
10	-	22	14	1 816	25 898
5	-	10	7	726	4 808
2	-	5	3	291	893
1	-	2	1	87	124

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: ManFromJupiter on July 20, 2014, 02:11:44 PM
So, what the Monero economics thread will tell us about fall in price. Uh?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 02:21:35 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 12:48:48 PM
Case B - 13,200 holders:
Code:
	min		max	avg	#ppl	tot.xmr
17						
16	100 000	-	215 443	142 600	1,2	165 745
15	46 416	-	100 000	66 189	2,5	165 745
14	21 544	-	46 416	30 722	5,4	165 745
13	10 000	-	21 544	14 260	12	165 745
12	4 642	-	10 000	6 619	25	165 745
11	2 154	-	4 642	3 072	54	165 745
10	1 000	-	2 154	1 426	116	165 745
9	464	-	1 000	662	291	192 329
8	215	-	464	307	726	223 179
7	100	-	215	143	1 816	258 976
6	46	-	100	66	3 632	240 412
5	22	-	46	31	3 632	111 589
4	10	-	22	14	1 816	25 898
3	4,6	-	10,0	6,6	726	4 808
2	2,2	-	4,6	3,1	291	893
1	1,0	-	2,2	1,4	87	124

Largest holdings:
1. 137,000 XMR
2. 80,000 XMR
3. 65,000 XMR
4. 50,000 XMR

top holding:  137,000 XMR
top 10:  20,500 XMR
top 100:  2,150   XMR
top 1000:  270 XMR
      
# of holders: 13,234   
avg holding:  167 XMR
==  0.75 BTC
==  473   USD
median holding: 46 XMR   
half of the coins belong to 150 people.

The big differences in the scenarios are:
- possible presence of a megaholder
- total number of holders

I lean towards the interpretation that this scenario is more realistic. It is already possible to buy XMR from several exchanges, and the $500 average holding seems realistic for an altcoin. (Bitcoin's average holding is about $8000). Also for somebody to have been amassed 280,000 coins, that could only have happened as a rather static percentage of the new inflation (there has been no way to generate or buy them for cheaper in such a quantity - Bitcoin did have this window open for Satoshi but Monero hasn't had it, and will not have it). This means that his stash would have been bought at the average price of at least 0.0025, and would have cost him at least BTC700, probably even BTC1,000 or more. I don't say that it's impossible that someone has done it, I just find it more likely that there is only 1 six-figure holding, about 10 holdings that are between 20k-100k and 10 more holdings in the 10k-20k range.

So truly, now it is possible to make up if you were late from Bitcoin. Just take the 100:1 leverage (or more) :) I will write about the XMR:BTC ratio concept more soon! :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Conurtrol on July 20, 2014, 02:47:02 PM
The presumed reason for the lengthy Monero emission process is to ensure a wide and fair distribution. Won't 20% of Monero owners end up with 80% of the currency, as per the Pareto principle, regardless of how long the emission process lasts? If so, then why not speed it up and get it over with? Have there been any studies of length of distribution and volume of emission that would validate the current Monero plan?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on July 20, 2014, 03:09:32 PM
I cannot directly help you with this analysis and appreciate what you are doing, but I have a few concerns:

I followed monero from the otc time and probably the first ten pages of the thread. AFAIK there were little to no buys over the counter with more than 10000 xmr volume. Even otc it was very hard to aquire reasonable amounts of xmr. I cannot speak for the OTC in freenode (?)/ IIRC. Maybe some powerful miners would have the possibility to get a six digit amount of xmr - but to buy them would be quite complicated.

It is probably just an educated guess but I think the group of 1000 to 10000 is underrepresentated to the cost of the group above and below. My idea is that you probably cannot use the normal distribution which is neccessary for power law, because altcoiners are probably not the perfect representative group for that - I assume this group is capped at the top.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 03:16:40 PM
Quote from: Conurtrol on July 20, 2014, 02:47:02 PM
The presumed reason for the lengthy Monero emission process is to ensure a wide and fair distribution. Won't 20% of Monero owners end up with 80% of the currency, as per the Pareto principle, regardless of how long the emission process lasts? If so, then why not speed it up and get it over with? Have there been any studies of length of distribution and volume of emission that would validate the current Monero plan?

Actually the likely result is 1% owning 50% of it, as is the case in both the Case A and Case B in this thread (!). And with Bitcoin (!).

This to me is the proof that the plan is working. With <insert your favorite shitcoin here>, it is not so. And the reason is that they have wanted to do it quickly, to get all the coins, and be able to soon conduct a pump&dump. With Monero, you cannot do it.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: HardwarePal on July 20, 2014, 03:23:53 PM
https://i.imgur.com/oo4ClCh.png

Estimates based on % hodlings of various addresses of BTC-LTC +  2 anon coins DRK-XC

XMR :
0-0.1              45%
0.1-1              4%
1-10               25%
10-100           15%
100-1K           8%
1K-10K           2%
10K-100K       1%
100K+            ~

These are rough numbers from the graph but this is address based not individual based.

I think 1-1K XMR will be the heaviest range in the future

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 03:37:17 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

What is the total range of XMR trading ever, including all outliers?

I gather it should be about 0.00039 - 0.01110. If so, these are only 28x apart from each other  :o

For any other coin, it's more. With Bitcoin, the range is 0.001 - 1,236;  difference being 1,236,000x.  ;D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: HardwarePal on July 20, 2014, 03:41:26 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 03:37:17 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

What is the total range of XMR trading ever, including all outliers?

I gather it should be about 0.00039 - 0.01110. If so, these are only 28x apart from each other  :o

For any other coin, it's more. With Bitcoin, the range is 0.001 - 1,236;  difference being 1,236,000x.  ;D

Was the 0.00039 done OTC and on the first XMR exchange before polo ?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Kuriso on July 20, 2014, 03:45:32 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 03:23:37 PM
Quote from: Kuriso on July 20, 2014, 03:11:35 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 12:48:48 PM
It is always good to see how you rank compared to others in owning a coin. But how?

With Monero, the blockchain provides no help in determining balances. So the distribution of holdings must be constructed purely theoretically. What we use in the analysis of this post is just the following information:

- Number of XMR (about 2.2 million when this was done);
- Assumption that the distribution follows power law for the highest 3% of the holders (it does if we are talking about general wealth) - the power law distribution has the property that the owners of 100-200 coins collectively own the same number of coins as the ones owning 200-400 coins etc. But their number is 2x higher (because the other group was 2x richer), and the density is 4x more (because not only there was 2x the number of people, but also the bracket is in absolute terms only half the size);
- Below that, the distribution forms a nice bulge centered around the median holding and drops quickly towards insignificant holdings;

I have calculated 2 possibilities that give the result for both 5,200 and 13,200 holders. The results are presented in logarithmic brackets that are 0.333 log10 units wide (unlike my usual precision of 1 log unit, this gives 3 times more information). The exact form of the very top (holdings of the top-5 or so holders) affects the distribution somewhat, but with XMR it cannot be deduced either directly or statistically. I have assumed that the Case A scenario has a large outlier but Case B does not have it.


--- removed the BS ---



so what does it mean.  you wanted me to ask here.

Please elaborate what you find difficult?

I dont find anything difficult. I asked you what was the purpose of the numbers you provide. In the trollbox you said I didnt understand what it meant so I want to know what you think it means.

You are trying to calculate the possible holdings of XMR based on 2 scenarios.  That's a good way of going about it.  One high.  One low.  What I don't get is, why?  These numbers mean nothing and if they are just as good as your prediction for XMR at .0065-.0068, your figures are off. 

You can assume this general distribution on just about any coin.  Only difference is, on most other coins you can get a better idea of distribution based on blockchain analysis.  Don't forget that blockchain analysis and rich list will be inaccurate and false because large holder are smarter than you think and spread coins across multiple address to mask their holdings.  So in the end the number are really useless.

So again I ask, why?



Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Kuriso on July 20, 2014, 03:47:20 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

Really?  Have you looked at the chart?  From a high of .01111 to a next dump low of .0024xxx.  I'd call that a large pump and dump.

https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 04:27:25 PM
Quote from: Kuriso on July 20, 2014, 03:47:20 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

Really?  Have you looked at the chart?  From a high of .01111 to a next dump low of .0024xxx.  I'd call that a large pump and dump.

https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

So perhaps, you didnt notice, that just last year in april BTC lost 78% of its value in correction, right? ;-) Yes, I am watching charts and making investment decisions with them in mind.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: RAJSALLIN on July 20, 2014, 04:31:05 PM
Following

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: darlidada on July 20, 2014, 04:50:33 PM
Quote from: Kuriso on July 20, 2014, 03:47:20 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

Really?  Have you looked at the chart?  From a high of .01111 to a next dump low of .0024xxx.  I'd call that a large pump and dump.

https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

Chart doesnt tell the whole story. High of .0111 was something like a 1 xmr sell off to noobs when xmr got introduced on Poloniex.

Here's the real story :

otc : dont remember but there's a thread about it
crytponote exchange : high of 2,25 mbtc then dump to 0,8 mbtc
poloniex : high of 8 mbtc then dump to 1,75 then high of 10 then dump to 2,3

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Kuriso on July 20, 2014, 05:00:54 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 04:27:25 PM
Quote from: Kuriso on July 20, 2014, 03:47:20 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

Really?  Have you looked at the chart?  From a high of .01111 to a next dump low of .0024xxx.  I'd call that a large pump and dump.

https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

So perhaps, you didnt notice, that just last year in april BTC lost 78% of its value in correction, right? ;-) Yes, I am watching charts and making investment decisions with them in mind.

You said, "Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way." and you are wrong.  XMR has had 3 large pump and dumps on Poloniex and several small ones.  The largest XMR pump and dump was pre-mintpal and went from .00190xx to .01xxxx and then back down to a low of .0024xxx.  That dump was very close to the same loss you say BTC had.  Your attempt to deflect and ignore the fact you were wrong has failed.

  

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Kuriso on July 20, 2014, 05:07:10 PM
Quote from: darlidada on July 20, 2014, 04:50:33 PM
Quote from: Kuriso on July 20, 2014, 03:47:20 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

Really?  Have you looked at the chart?  From a high of .01111 to a next dump low of .0024xxx.  I'd call that a large pump and dump.

https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

Chart doesnt tell the whole story. High of .0111 was something like a 1 xmr sell off to noobs when xmr got introduced on Poloniex.

Here's the real story :

otc : dont remember but there's a thread about it
crytponote exchange : high of 2,25 mbtc then dump to 0,8 mbtc
poloniex : high of 8 mbtc then dump to 1,75 then high of 10 then dump to 2,3

"High of .0111 was something like a 1 xmr sell off to noobs when xmr got introduced on Poloniex."  Yes I think you are right.  The .0111 was one of those early sells but during the pre-mintpal pump, XMR touched .01 twice and followed that buy touching .0996xxx and .0916xxx.  It then fell to a low of .0024xx before rebounding where it is today.  That's still a fall of about 76% from its most recent high.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: eizh on July 20, 2014, 05:38:58 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 03:37:17 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

What is the total range of XMR trading ever, including all outliers?

I gather it should be about 0.00039 - 0.01110. If so, these are only 28x apart from each other  :o

For any other coin, it's more. With Bitcoin, the range is 0.001 - 1,236;  difference being 1,236,000x.  ;D

The XMR OTC thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=578192.0

The first recorded OTC trade was by me for 0.0005 4 days after Monero launched. It went as low as 0.0002 for several trades in the following 2 weeks, which is the lowest as far as I know.

However, for the coin's publicity smooth once hosted an auction here 1 day after launch: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=577296.0

It was for 100 XMR and I won with a bid of 0.005 BTC, giving a price of 0.00005 (note the zeros). This is lower by an order of magnitude but I'm not sure you want to count it since it wasn't a market trade per se.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 05:54:26 PM
If such data is available, the "market price"*"volume"*"time" -table across all exchanges and methods would be much appreciated, eg. in 0.1 log-units brackets:

Code:
	week 17	week 18	week 19
0,01000			
0,00794			
0,00631			
0,00501			
0,00398			
0,00316			
0,00251			
0,00200			
0,00158			
0,00126			
0,00100			
0,00079			
0,00063			
0,00050	3000		
0,00040	10000		
0,00032	15000	5000	
0,00025	10000	5000	
0,00020		10000


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Its About Sharing on July 20, 2014, 05:55:09 PM
Regarding Rpietila's first post, I think ones investment into XMR (or any alt you see worthy) can also be calculated by where/when you started with BTC. I say this because if you created enough new wealth and rotate that into XMR, your really not risking much of anything. Note, if you are newly into BTC and don't have money to spare, then. 1:1 ratio or something comfortably low, might be better for you, as a hedge.

For simplicities sake, say you got into Bitcoin when it was at $25 and say you invested $2,000:
That would put your original investment (80 BTC) at app. $50,000. 80 Monero (.336 BTC) would seem a bit trivial, especially if you have your eggs in only two baskets.

What about taking your original $2,000 (now worth app. 3.22 BTC) and buying app. 770 XMR?
I still see this as a relatively small amount of XMR due to the "two basket" metaphor. This is a 10:1 ratio app.
Risking newly created money though, certainly can lighten the pressure.

Personally, I'd reserve maybe 10% - 15% of my BTC ( or a dollar equivalent) to where I see fit, Even if I got in relatively late, as there probably is a good chance of finding the next BTC in this brand new space.  My bet is on Monero.

IAS

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 06:30:40 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 02:21:35 PM
Also for somebody to have amassed 280,000 coins, that could only have happened as a rather static percentage of the new inflation (there has been no way to generate or buy them for cheaper in such a quantity - Bitcoin did have this window open for Satoshi but Monero hasn't had it, and will not have it). This means that his stash would have been bought at the average price of at least 0.0025, and would have cost him at least BTC700, probably even BTC1,000 or more.

Quote from: nakaone on July 20, 2014, 03:09:32 PM
I followed monero from the otc time and probably the first ten pages of the thread. AFAIK there were little to no buys over the counter with more than 10000 xmr volume. Even otc it was very hard to aquire reasonable amounts of xmr. I cannot speak for the OTC in freenode (?)/ IIRC. Maybe some powerful miners would have the possibility to get a six digit amount of xmr - but to buy them would be quite complicated.

In my deduction, I also read the threads and saw that the sums traded in OTC were so small both in XMR and (especially) BTC terms that nobody could have amassed a 6-figure holding by means of that alone.

However I heard from a second-hand source that Monero has a wealthy backer, whose fortune has amounted up to 25% of the coins prior to the previous bubble about a month ago. It follows naturally that the acquisition of such a fortune and the bubble (or: divestment and the bust) may be related. Even my meager purchases last week have been connected to the price rise and they were not 6-figure amounts :)

Even if such an entity still exists, I don't find the situation problematic. He has paid the full price, of BTC or electricity, for his holdings, and to get the same percentage of the total amount as Satoshi has of BTC (~900,000 XMR), there is still the need to buy the rest at the full price.

I know that some of the brightest minds of Bitcoin, and of the world, are currently in buy-only mode concerning XMR. They have done the math and will leave the selling to the miners. One of the purposes of this thread is to show you, how little is actually needed to reserve your seat in the VIP-area, should this coin take off.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 06:54:28 PM
Perhaps we can go deeper to the mystery of the 400k guy? To have a 25% share of the coins at any time, it requires that he would have needed to have 25% of the hashpower uninterruptedly from the beginning to the end, AND the opportunity cost of such power would've been 100s of BTC. The only realistic way to do it would have been a privileged miner with much lower electricity cost that that of the others.

Or he would have bought 25% of all the new supply in the exchanges (which is ludicrous, since many miners don't sell, so 1 guy would have bought like half of the coins brought for sale, from day 1 on...)

If you ask me, it is more likely that the biggest holder now is found in the 140-280k XMR range. It just gets too difficult and not profitable enough to actually corner 25% of the supply. With such resources (100s of BTC) you have other things to do... :)

This way logic can be applied.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 09:18:33 PM
Quote from: fff13 on July 20, 2014, 08:51:16 PM
Whats the bechmark for being a VIP of Monero, 500, 1000, etc?

  8)

Typically it starts when the power law takes hold ie. you are "better than" 97%.

With XMR, you need 1000. Go get some! :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: damashup on July 20, 2014, 09:36:07 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 11:55:17 AM

After hearing that many are positioning such that they hold 100:1 (XMR:BTC), which is about 25% in XMR, or even 400:1, which is more than half in XMR, I also set myself up to acquire a larger position. That was a contributing factor in the rise last week but I am not even nearly done. It just does not feel right to sell XMR to receive BTC when you are already as loaded with BTC as I am.


What would your advice be to people like me (relative newcomers to cryptocurrencies) holding little or no Bitcoin? There are only three coins that hold my interest Bitcoin and Monero being two of them. I'm currently holding at a ratio of 2000:1 (XMR:BTC) with a view to raking into a few more BTC each time the price of XMR doubles.

I see the growth in XMR outstripping that of all other coins (including BTC) over the next 6-9 months. If it doesn't perform as I expect in that period, I may then look to pull back.

Sound sensible or too bullish?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on July 20, 2014, 11:47:44 PM
Quote from: damashup on July 20, 2014, 09:36:07 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 11:55:17 AM

After hearing that many are positioning such that they hold 100:1 (XMR:BTC), which is about 25% in XMR, or even 400:1, which is more than half in XMR, I also set myself up to acquire a larger position. That was a contributing factor in the rise last week but I am not even nearly done. It just does not feel right to sell XMR to receive BTC when you are already as loaded with BTC as I am.


What would your advice be to people like me (relative newcomers to cryptocurrencies) holding little or no Bitcoin? There are only three coins that hold my interest Bitcoin and Monero being two of them. I'm currently holding at a ratio of 2000:1 (XMR:BTC) with a view to raking into a few more BTC each time the price of XMR doubles.

I see the growth in XMR outstripping that of all other coins (including BTC) over the next 6-9 months. If it doesn't perform as I expect in that period, I may then look to pull back.

Sound sensible or too bullish?

So far I have never regreted buying xmr - not even at the ath, although I was then buying fewer.   If your holding time goes out to 500 days emission is halved.  If xmr is not destroyed in that time your holdings will likely rise in value in proportion to exp(n_nodes^2) over that time.   Plan accordingly.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dga on July 21, 2014, 12:14:45 AM
Quote from: damashup on July 20, 2014, 09:36:07 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 11:55:17 AM

After hearing that many are positioning such that they hold 100:1 (XMR:BTC), which is about 25% in XMR, or even 400:1, which is more than half in XMR, I also set myself up to acquire a larger position. That was a contributing factor in the rise last week but I am not even nearly done. It just does not feel right to sell XMR to receive BTC when you are already as loaded with BTC as I am.


What would your advice be to people like me (relative newcomers to cryptocurrencies) holding little or no Bitcoin? There are only three coins that hold my interest Bitcoin and Monero being two of them. I'm currently holding at a ratio of 2000:1 (XMR:BTC) with a view to raking into a few more BTC each time the price of XMR doubles.

I see the growth in XMR outstripping that of all other coins (including BTC) over the next 6-9 months. If it doesn't perform as I expect in that period, I may then look to pull back.

Sound sensible or too bullish?

This is all a question of how you want to allocate your risk.

My general view is that having some %age of your investment portfolio in high risk investments is good (and that %age depends on your age and financial picture).  But the smart way to manage high risk is to diversify into multiple individual high risk investments -- so if you've allocated 1% of your total wealth to high-risk investments, don't put all 1% of it in XMR.  But if that 2000 XMR represents only 1% of your high risk portfolio, then what's wrong with it?

(I consider BTC part of my high risk portfolio also - but I have about 1000:1 BBR to BTC, and that's a leveraged gamble where I'm hoping that giving source code and technical commentary back helps moderate the risk.)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dreamspark on July 21, 2014, 10:26:21 AM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 06:54:28 PM
Perhaps we can go deeper to the mystery of the 400k guy? To have a 25% share of the coins at any time, it requires that he would have needed to have 25% of the hashpower uninterruptedly from the beginning to the end, AND the opportunity cost of such power would've been 100s of BTC. The only realistic way to do it would have been a privileged miner with much lower electricity cost that that of the others.

Or he would have bought 25% of all the new supply in the exchanges (which is ludicrous, since many miners don't sell, so 1 guy would have bought like half of the coins brought for sale, from day 1 on...)

If you ask me, it is more likely that the biggest holder now is found in the 140-280k XMR range. It just gets too difficult and not profitable enough to actually corner 25% of the supply. With such resources (100s of BTC) you have other things to do... :)

This way logic can be applied.

Where does the 400k come from ?

At times during the early mining phases one player had far more than 25% of the hash (think closer to 60%). The market was also much smaller so the diff was lower and you could have well over half the network for a rather cheap (in hindsight at least) sum. Some people are miners for a living and as such with 100's of BTC's the best thing they feel to do is use it to make/mine more.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on July 21, 2014, 03:49:32 PM
Quote from: dga on July 21, 2014, 12:14:45 AM
Quote from: damashup on July 20, 2014, 09:36:07 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 11:55:17 AM

After hearing that many are positioning such that they hold 100:1 (XMR:BTC), which is about 25% in XMR, or even 400:1, which is more than half in XMR, I also set myself up to acquire a larger position. That was a contributing factor in the rise last week but I am not even nearly done. It just does not feel right to sell XMR to receive BTC when you are already as loaded with BTC as I am.


What would your advice be to people like me (relative newcomers to cryptocurrencies) holding little or no Bitcoin? There are only three coins that hold my interest Bitcoin and Monero being two of them. I'm currently holding at a ratio of 2000:1 (XMR:BTC) with a view to raking into a few more BTC each time the price of XMR doubles.

I see the growth in XMR outstripping that of all other coins (including BTC) over the next 6-9 months. If it doesn't perform as I expect in that period, I may then look to pull back.

Sound sensible or too bullish?

This is all a question of how you want to allocate your risk.

My general view is that having some %age of your investment portfolio in high risk investments is good (and that %age depends on your age and financial picture).  But the smart way to manage high risk is to diversify into multiple individual high risk investments -- so if you've allocated 1% of your total wealth to high-risk investments, don't put all 1% of it in XMR.  But if that 2000 XMR represents only 1% of your high risk portfolio, then what's wrong with it?

(I consider BTC part of my high risk portfolio also - but I have about 1000:1 BBR to BTC, and that's a leveraged gamble where I'm hoping that giving source code and technical commentary back helps moderate the risk.)

Also your risk should change based on your age and lifestyle. If you're closing in on retirement you might want to put less into high risk investments (bitcoin) and super high risk investments (monero).

Also, dga, why are you invested in BBR and not Monero?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dga on July 21, 2014, 04:23:46 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on July 21, 2014, 03:49:32 PM
Also your risk should change based on your age and lifestyle. If you're closing in on retirement you might want to put less into high risk investments (bitcoin) and super high risk investments (monero).

Also, dga, why are you invested in BBR and not Monero?

More medium term (6mo) upside potential, more opportunities to help push it forward through strategic contributions.  I like that BBR is taking risks on changing some of the deeper issues with the cryptonote core such as the mandatory mixins.

If you told me I had to buy and hold for the next 5 years, I'd probably do something like an 80/20 split of XMR/BBR, because I think that it XMR's momentum and popularity is a nontrivial advantage.  But that's not the position I'm in or the time horizon I'm looking for, and I'm not a passive participant.  I've allocated about 3 hours per week of time to hurl some improvements at BBR, be it in the form of code (miners or otherwise), suggestions, or writing.  You might notice, for example, that the intro to Boolberry.com web page has been rewritten a bit today and should feel a little more approachable to a less-geeky audience.  I hope to get the rest of it done over the next few days.

But don't listen to me for advice -- I treat all of crypto as a gigantic fun experiment to learn from, and when I get lucky, make some spare change.  I don't have any money invested in it that I can't say goodbye to.  Within my high risk, I give myself a bit of "play" money where I figure that if I learn something by losing it, I'm still ahead. :)


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on July 21, 2014, 05:13:47 PM
Quote from: dga on July 21, 2014, 04:23:46 PM

But don't listen to me for advice -- I treat all of crypto as a gigantic fun experiment to learn from, and when I get lucky, make some spare change.  I don't have any money invested in it that I can't say goodbye to.  Within my high risk, I give myself a bit of "play" money where I figure that if I learn something by losing it, I'm still ahead. :)



I hate saying goodbye to any money :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: luigi1111 on July 21, 2014, 05:57:39 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 12:48:48 PM
top holding:  280,000 XMR

Seems to me you're just a smidgen high; I'd guess just <260k.  ;D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Roy Badami on July 21, 2014, 09:09:55 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 03:37:17 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

What is the total range of XMR trading ever, including all outliers?

I gather it should be about 0.00039 - 0.01110. If so, these are only 28x apart from each other  :o

For any other coin, it's more. With Bitcoin, the range is 0.001 - 1,236;  difference being 1,236,000x.  ;D

I'm interested to know your source for 0.001.  Lowest price I've seen documented is 0.003 on Bitcoin Market in April/May 2010 (EDIT: which is the earliest data I have.  Do you have earlier, Risto?)

roy

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 21, 2014, 09:20:40 PM
Quote from: Roy Badami on July 21, 2014, 09:09:55 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 03:37:17 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

What is the total range of XMR trading ever, including all outliers?

I gather it should be about 0.00039 - 0.01110. If so, these are only 28x apart from each other  :o

For any other coin, it's more. With Bitcoin, the range is 0.001 - 1,236;  difference being 1,236,000x.  ;D

I'm interested to know your source for 0.001.  Lowest price I've seen documented is 0.003 on Bitcoin Market in April/May 2010 (EDIT: which is the earliest data I have.  Do you have earlier, Risto?)

roy

Sirius has told in multiple occasions that he sold 5000 (or 5050) bitcoins for $5, making the record for the floor price.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Roy Badami on July 21, 2014, 09:26:10 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 21, 2014, 09:20:40 PM
Quote from: Roy Badami on July 21, 2014, 09:09:55 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 03:37:17 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on July 20, 2014, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: LAstar on July 20, 2014, 02:49:36 PM
Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

What is the total range of XMR trading ever, including all outliers?

I gather it should be about 0.00039 - 0.01110. If so, these are only 28x apart from each other  :o

For any other coin, it's more. With Bitcoin, the range is 0.001 - 1,236;  difference being 1,236,000x.  ;D

I'm interested to know your source for 0.001.  Lowest price I've seen documented is 0.003 on Bitcoin Market in April/May 2010 (EDIT: which is the earliest data I have.  Do you have earlier, Risto?)

roy

Sirius has told in multiple occasions that he sold 5000 (or 5050) bitcoins for $5, making the record for the floor price.

Ah, thank you!  I guess I was thinking of price data from exchanges, rather than private transactions.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Okurkabinladin on July 21, 2014, 09:54:22 PM
Just so you all know. Trading volume of Monero is third now, only Litecoin and Bitcoin have bigger volume. Incredibly bullish.

http://coinmarketcap.com/

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on July 21, 2014, 10:02:49 PM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 21, 2014, 10:26:21 AM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 06:54:28 PM
Perhaps we can go deeper to the mystery of the 400k guy? To have a 25% share of the coins at any time, it requires that he would have needed to have 25% of the hashpower uninterruptedly from the beginning to the end, AND the opportunity cost of such power would've been 100s of BTC. The only realistic way to do it would have been a privileged miner with much lower electricity cost that that of the others.

Or he would have bought 25% of all the new supply in the exchanges (which is ludicrous, since many miners don't sell, so 1 guy would have bought like half of the coins brought for sale, from day 1 on...)

If you ask me, it is more likely that the biggest holder now is found in the 140-280k XMR range. It just gets too difficult and not profitable enough to actually corner 25% of the supply. With such resources (100s of BTC) you have other things to do... :)

This way logic can be applied.

Where does the 400k come from ?

At times during the early mining phases one player had far more than 25% of the hash (think closer to 60%). The market was also much smaller so the diff was lower and you could have well over half the network for a rather cheap (in hindsight at least) sum. Some people are miners for a living and as such with 100's of BTC's the best thing they feel to do is use it to make/mine more.

No one had that dominant a share of mining for a sustained period of time. I can say this with near 100% certainty, but not quite 100% because various contrived conspiracy theories make it theoretically possible. I can say with absolute 100% certainly that no one had more than 70-75%

Given the significant fraction of all mined coins that changed hands on OTC and the cryptonote exchange in the early days I think it is fair to say that if someone accumulated 400k (around 20 days of full output) it was likely due to buying rather than mining.




Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on July 21, 2014, 10:19:56 PM
Anyone keeping a 20K+ holders list?

I have mine but not long enough to warrant posting yet.


In other news:
Risto please no more buy walls till Friday. I'm waiting for some BTC's to hit coinbase so I can buy :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: damashup on July 21, 2014, 10:41:03 PM
Quote from: aminorex on July 20, 2014, 11:47:44 PM
So far I have never regreted buying xmr - not even at the ath, although I was then buying fewer.   If your holding time goes out to 500 days emission is halved.  If xmr is not destroyed in that time your holdings will likely rise in value in proportion to exp(n_nodes^2) over that time.   Plan accordingly.

Thanks - will consider holding at least until the emission halves. Although, I'm banking on significant technical advances as the coin moves from alpha to beta stage - will take that to create a demand that will outstrip supply over that period.

Given the emission rate, 'Miners Economics' will also be key to the success of XMR. Let's hope a good portion can afford to hold for medium/ long term.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: damashup on July 21, 2014, 10:58:14 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on July 21, 2014, 03:49:32 PM
Quote from: dga on July 21, 2014, 12:14:45 AM
Quote from: damashup on July 20, 2014, 09:36:07 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 11:55:17 AM

After hearing that many are positioning such that they hold 100:1 (XMR:BTC), which is about 25% in XMR, or even 400:1, which is more than half in XMR, I also set myself up to acquire a larger position. That was a contributing factor in the rise last week but I am not even nearly done. It just does not feel right to sell XMR to receive BTC when you are already as loaded with BTC as I am.


What would your advice be to people like me (relative newcomers to cryptocurrencies) holding little or no Bitcoin? There are only three coins that hold my interest Bitcoin and Monero being two of them. I'm currently holding at a ratio of 2000:1 (XMR:BTC) with a view to raking into a few more BTC each time the price of XMR doubles.

I see the growth in XMR outstripping that of all other coins (including BTC) over the next 6-9 months. If it doesn't perform as I expect in that period, I may then look to pull back.

Sound sensible or too bullish?

This is all a question of how you want to allocate your risk.

My general view is that having some %age of your investment portfolio in high risk investments is good (and that %age depends on your age and financial picture).  But the smart way to manage high risk is to diversify into multiple individual high risk investments -- so if you've allocated 1% of your total wealth to high-risk investments, don't put all 1% of it in XMR.  But if that 2000 XMR represents only 1% of your high risk portfolio, then what's wrong with it?

(I consider BTC part of my high risk portfolio also - but I have about 1000:1 BBR to BTC, and that's a leveraged gamble where I'm hoping that giving source code and technical commentary back helps moderate the risk.)

Also your risk should change based on your age and lifestyle. If you're closing in on retirement you might want to put less into high risk investments (bitcoin) and super high risk investments (monero).

Also, dga, why are you invested in BBR and not Monero?

Thank you both for the advice. I was more concerned with how I should be investing in Monero relative to Bitcoin (as a non-Bitcoin holder), as oppose to where crypto-currencies should sit in my general investment portfolio.

I agree this is less 'investing' more speculating/ gambling. As such my inclination is to go 'back' on one currency (Monero) and hedge with another (Bitcoin). Boolberry was the third currency that I'm taking an interest in btw - it would certainly be my darkhorse for success & I love rooting for the underdog!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Skinnkavaj on July 21, 2014, 11:07:23 PM
Quote from: damashup on July 21, 2014, 10:58:14 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on July 21, 2014, 03:49:32 PM
Quote from: dga on July 21, 2014, 12:14:45 AM
Quote from: damashup on July 20, 2014, 09:36:07 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 11:55:17 AM

After hearing that many are positioning such that they hold 100:1 (XMR:BTC), which is about 25% in XMR, or even 400:1, which is more than half in XMR, I also set myself up to acquire a larger position. That was a contributing factor in the rise last week but I am not even nearly done. It just does not feel right to sell XMR to receive BTC when you are already as loaded with BTC as I am.


What would your advice be to people like me (relative newcomers to cryptocurrencies) holding little or no Bitcoin? There are only three coins that hold my interest Bitcoin and Monero being two of them. I'm currently holding at a ratio of 2000:1 (XMR:BTC) with a view to raking into a few more BTC each time the price of XMR doubles.

I see the growth in XMR outstripping that of all other coins (including BTC) over the next 6-9 months. If it doesn't perform as I expect in that period, I may then look to pull back.

Sound sensible or too bullish?

This is all a question of how you want to allocate your risk.

My general view is that having some %age of your investment portfolio in high risk investments is good (and that %age depends on your age and financial picture).  But the smart way to manage high risk is to diversify into multiple individual high risk investments -- so if you've allocated 1% of your total wealth to high-risk investments, don't put all 1% of it in XMR.  But if that 2000 XMR represents only 1% of your high risk portfolio, then what's wrong with it?

(I consider BTC part of my high risk portfolio also - but I have about 1000:1 BBR to BTC, and that's a leveraged gamble where I'm hoping that giving source code and technical commentary back helps moderate the risk.)

Also your risk should change based on your age and lifestyle. If you're closing in on retirement you might want to put less into high risk investments (bitcoin) and super high risk investments (monero).

Also, dga, why are you invested in BBR and not Monero?

Thank you both for the advice. I was more concerned with how I should be investing in Monero relative to Bitcoin (as a non-Bitcoin holder), as oppose to where crypto-currencies should sit in my general investment portfolio.

I agree this is less 'investing' more speculating/ gambling. As such my inclination is to go 'back' on one currency (Monero) and hedge with another (Bitcoin). Boolberry was the third currency that I'm taking an interest in btw - it would certainly be my darkhorse for success & I love rooting for the underdog!
Boolberry is a terrible name. Monero sounds much more legitimate and serious.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: stellarman on July 22, 2014, 12:09:29 AM
Thanks, Risto. Good thread.

Following.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Macno on July 22, 2014, 07:25:31 AM
Hi,

is there a post somewhere which explains the (economic) differences between XMR and DRK in a not too technical way?
Of all the Anon-Coins, I am only invested in DRK so far but you guys seem pretty sure XMR is better (you don`t even mention DRK) and I`d like to know why.
Unfortunately it is pretty hard to find such informations, as any Altcoin-community seems to act like some kind of sect, flaming at anyone who even mentions another coin. Diversification seems to be less popular than going all in into the coin one fell in love with...but this thread sounds reasonable so far, so I ask here instead of the DRK thread  :D
I hope the question is not OT though.

(Edit: rpietila is the famous "Risto" I heard mentioned so many times?)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 08:50:16 AM
Quote from: smooth on July 21, 2014, 10:02:49 PM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 21, 2014, 10:26:21 AM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 06:54:28 PM
Perhaps we can go deeper to the mystery of the 400k guy? To have a 25% share of the coins at any time, it requires that he would have needed to have 25% of the hashpower uninterruptedly from the beginning to the end, AND the opportunity cost of such power would've been 100s of BTC. The only realistic way to do it would have been a privileged miner with much lower electricity cost that that of the others.

Or he would have bought 25% of all the new supply in the exchanges (which is ludicrous, since many miners don't sell, so 1 guy would have bought like half of the coins brought for sale, from day 1 on...)

If you ask me, it is more likely that the biggest holder now is found in the 140-280k XMR range. It just gets too difficult and not profitable enough to actually corner 25% of the supply. With such resources (100s of BTC) you have other things to do... :)

This way logic can be applied.

Where does the 400k come from ?

At times during the early mining phases one player had far more than 25% of the hash (think closer to 60%). The market was also much smaller so the diff was lower and you could have well over half the network for a rather cheap (in hindsight at least) sum. Some people are miners for a living and as such with 100's of BTC's the best thing they feel to do is use it to make/mine more.

No one had that dominant a share of mining for a sustained period of time. I can say this with near 100% certainty, but not quite 100% because various contrived conspiracy theories make it theoretically possible. I can say with absolute 100% certainly that no one had more than 70-75%

Given the significant fraction of all mined coins that changed hands on OTC and the cryptonote exchange in the early days I think it is fair to say that if someone accumulated 400k (around 20 days of full output) it was likely due to buying rather than mining.



I didn't say 70-75% I said think closer to 60% than 25%. I know that for absolute certain that a player has had close to 50% of the hash for a significant amount of time. Anyways, theres no point arguing about it because it not easily provable and frankly makes no difference which of us is right.

If you mined from almost the beggining with close to 50% hash you could theoretically get 400k in 40 days. I however dont believe the top holder has that many anyway hence why I was asking where the 400k figure came from.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Its About Sharing on July 22, 2014, 09:34:07 AM
Quote from: Macno on July 22, 2014, 07:25:31 AM
Hi,

is there a post somewhere which explains the (economic) differences between XMR and DRK in a not too technical way?
Of all the Anon-Coins, I am only invested in DRK so far but you guys seem pretty sure XMR is better (you don`t even mention DRK) and I`d like to know why.
Unfortunately it is pretty hard to find such informations, as any Altcoin-community seems to act like some kind of sect, flaming at anyone who even mentions another coin. Diversification seems to be less popular than going all in into the coin one fell in love with...but this thread sounds reasonable so far, so I ask here instead of the DRK thread  :D
I hope the question is not OT though.

(Edit: rpietila is the famous "Risto" I heard mentioned so many times?)

If you search this thread there were some great points brought up by Aminorex and others on why Monero's Cryptonote is superior (in many ways) to Darks mixing.
At a superficial, yet very important layer, the name Monero sounds nice, Dark is Dark. Not saying that is bad. But just look at what happened to Dark Market - immediately
the source was taken and Open Bazaar was formed. There is a lot to a name (fortunately or unfortunately).

I'm not as technical when it comes to the security, but even looking at things like Volume say alot. Monero (not listed here) would be the number 3 coin! http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/coins/info (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/coins/info)

Today:
Darks total volume Using - http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/#jump-drk-btc (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/#jump-drk-btc) = 167 BTC
Monero's total volume Using - http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/#jump-xmr-btc (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/#jump-xmr-btc) =357 BTC

Now, volume isn't the tell all, but this has been the pattern of late. I think many who hold DRK really must wonder how they will spend them in the future (outside of person to person).
Not saying it doesn't succeed as there is plenty of space, but it looks like it is starting to fall out of favor. Monero has been REALLY gaining traction.

IAS

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 22, 2014, 10:29:14 AM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 08:50:16 AM
I however dont believe the top holder has that many anyway hence why I was asking where the 400k figure came from.

Little birds mentioned that number as the high point of one early miner some time ago. So it is not necessarily the case that:

A. It is accurate
B. It still holds
C. It has come solely from mining.

After repeated statistical runs on the data, I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply. The largest one alone has near certainly more than 100k, likely even 200k, but not likely more than 300k as of now. (400k would be an outlier.)

This is all statistics, but with statistics on my side, I have become what I am financially, since I started investing in 1996.  ;D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 10:54:37 AM
Quote from: rpietila on July 22, 2014, 10:29:14 AM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 08:50:16 AM
I however dont believe the top holder has that many anyway hence why I was asking where the 400k figure came from.

Little birds mentioned that number as the high point of one early miner some time ago. So it is not necessarily the case that:

A. It is accurate
B. It still holds
C. It has come solely from mining.

After repeated statistical runs on the data, I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply. The largest one alone has near certainly more than 100k, likely even 200k, but not likely more than 300k as of now. (400k would be an outlier.)

This is all statistics, but with statistics on my side, I have become what I am financially, since I started investing in 1996.  ;D

Thanks.

On the lower bound of your estimate, 20%, that would give you a figure for the five holders of total 453,400.
On the upper bound of your estimate, 35%, that would give you a figure for the five holder of total 793,450.

With the upper bound meaning an average of 158,690 per person and the lower bound meaning an average of 90,680 to me thats quite a large difference. If for arguments sake we say the top holder has 200k how do you see the following 4 players being weighted? Normally with alts the value tends to stay lower for a longer period of time that allows these "super holders" to quietly accumalate these high quantities of coins.

In XMR's case it is and has been a relatively high priced coin (for a brand new alt) since the beggining. For your figures in regards to the top 5 and their holding percentage you would therefore suppose that they deep pockets in the first place? I guess what Im getting at is from my POV the ownership is more spread than this is suggesting and I'm trying to think of scenarios where 5 people would still hold 35% of the total supply as as a miner production cost (anytime after the first few weeks) has been relatively high.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 11:31:40 AM
Quote from: rpietila on July 22, 2014, 10:29:14 AM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 08:50:16 AM
I however dont believe the top holder has that many anyway hence why I was asking where the 400k figure came from.

Little birds mentioned that number as the high point of one early miner some time ago. So it is not necessarily the case that:

A. It is accurate
B. It still holds
C. It has come solely from mining.

After repeated statistical runs on the data, I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply. The largest one alone has near certainly more than 100k, likely even 200k, but not likely more than 300k as of now. (400k would be an outlier.)

This is all statistics, but with statistics on my side, I have become what I am financially, since I started investing in 1996.  ;D

I dont think that even 300K-400K would be much of an issue even now in the early stages with excessive inflation (1.1%) due to the emission curve. Most people will sell off in the 0.01+ range.

We are in the still in the speculation phase of the technology with alot more people moving into the coin after doing their due diligence, even though there are rough issues that are being worked on.  

I have 4 friends that have invested 10-50BTC each this past weekend , that I have been pestering for over a month to do their research.

Not everyone will psychologically handle the markets ups and downs and hold their coins throughout those phases.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 11:35:44 AM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 11:31:40 AM


For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does? ;)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 11:51:40 AM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 11:35:44 AM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 11:31:40 AM


For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does? ;)

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: pandher on July 22, 2014, 02:12:15 PM
Aminorex reminded me when talking about merchant acceptance for XMR in the polobox.

What do you guys think about this, how will the governments be reacting to completely untraceable transactions.? Will they try to ban the project citing obvious reasons?

I have been thinking about this since XMR genesis started. Never found anyone taking a deeper look at this side. All i see is price talks

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: onemorebtc on July 22, 2014, 02:16:25 PM
Quote from: pandher on July 22, 2014, 02:12:15 PM

What do you guys think about this, how will the governments be reacting to completely untraceable transactions.? Will they try to ban the project citing obvious reasons?


its just the same as cash and same regulations will apply (eg passport when buying a car, nothing when buying xxx or drugs)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on July 22, 2014, 02:22:07 PM
Quote from: pandher on July 22, 2014, 02:12:15 PM
Aminorex reminded me when talking about merchant acceptance for XMR in the polobox.

What do you guys think about this, how will the governments be reacting to completely untraceable transactions.? Will they try to ban the project citing obvious reasons?

I have been thinking about this since XMR genesis started. Never found anyone taking a deeper look at this side. All i see is price talks

At the moment we can't really advise merchants to start using Monero because the core code needs a lot of work. Many merchants that may try to use Monero in its current form will likely be turned off forever.

Once the bandwidth and ram issues are sorted, the team will incorporate one of the GUI developments and then Monero will be ready for merchant use.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: luigi1111 on July 22, 2014, 02:57:41 PM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 11:51:40 AM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 11:35:44 AM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 11:31:40 AM


For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does? ;)

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.


Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely).
Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it. ;D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dga on July 22, 2014, 06:01:33 PM
Quote from: luigi1111 on July 22, 2014, 02:57:41 PM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 11:51:40 AM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 11:35:44 AM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 11:31:40 AM


For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does? ;)

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.


Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely).
Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it. ;D

I believe you and I are thinking of the same whale.  I don't know of any others who approach that size.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Its About Sharing on July 22, 2014, 06:09:15 PM
Quote from: dga on July 22, 2014, 06:01:33 PM
Quote from: luigi1111 on July 22, 2014, 02:57:41 PM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 11:51:40 AM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 11:35:44 AM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 11:31:40 AM


For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does? ;)

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.


Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely).
Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it. ;D

I believe you and I are thinking of the same whale.  I don't know of any others who approach that size.

Please elaborate. You think it is an early BTC holder or ?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:15:28 PM
Quote from: Anotheranonlol on July 22, 2014, 06:12:18 PM
I have learned from this thread my relative XMR holdings bigger than first thought
I thought there was a bunch of orcas investing, it's mostly tuna

Amount of your holdings +- ?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:41:48 PM
Quote from: Anotheranonlol on July 22, 2014, 06:26:13 PM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:15:28 PM
Quote from: Anotheranonlol on July 22, 2014, 06:12:18 PM
I have learned from this thread my relative XMR holdings bigger than first thought
I thought there was a bunch of orcas investing, it's mostly tuna

Amount of your holdings +- ?

Not that big of a stash but would apparently place in top XXX, close to top XXX.
Find it a little odd that there is not considerably more users with larger holdings, but hey.

Its all estimations as I doubt anyone would say hey I have X amount of XMR, not to mention that not everyone likes being exposed.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 22, 2014, 09:01:44 PM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:41:48 PM
Quote from: Anotheranonlol on July 22, 2014, 06:26:13 PM
Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:15:28 PM
Quote from: Anotheranonlol on July 22, 2014, 06:12:18 PM
I have learned from this thread my relative XMR holdings bigger than first thought
I thought there was a bunch of orcas investing, it's mostly tuna

Amount of your holdings +- ?

Not that big of a stash but would apparently place in top 20, close to top 10.
Find it a little odd that there is not considerably more users with larger holdings, but hey.

Its all estimations as I doubt anyone would say hey I have X amount of XMR, not to mention that not everyone likes being exposed.


The only way of having more of large holdings, and preserve statistical credibility (individual holding size is determined from random variables and behaves according to statistical distributions), is to have significantly fewer overall holdings. Such as if there were only 300 Monero investors, it would make sense that every other of them had 10,000. But with 8,000 holders as is now the consensus, the average holding is <300 XMR and the median is <100. Everyone with 10,000 is a whale and this is an undisputable fact.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on July 22, 2014, 09:33:37 PM
Any ideas around the stake of the dev team as a whole?

Obviously tough to get a big share with XMR but I know some of them like TacoTime got some really cheap early buys.

Glad that the community is supporting those guys committing time to the project.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: fluffypony on July 22, 2014, 11:07:06 PM
Quote from: statdude on July 22, 2014, 09:33:37 PM
Any ideas around the stake of the dev team as a whole?

Obviously tough to get a big share with XMR but I know some of them like TacoTime got some really cheap early buys.

Glad that the community is supporting those guys committing time to the project.

We all got some early mining or buying done, but we also sold to cover costs early on. I'm quite fine with being transparent, and we've occasionally spoken amongst ourselves about our respective "stash" (although the "make our stash worth more" context has been notably lacking). Including myself, I would guess that we collectively have substantially less than 50 000 XMR, probably closer to 30 000 XMR between the 7 of us.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: bobabouey2 on July 23, 2014, 12:54:11 AM
Quote from: fluffypony on July 22, 2014, 11:07:06 PM
Quote from: statdude on July 22, 2014, 09:33:37 PM
Any ideas around the stake of the dev team as a whole?

Obviously tough to get a big share with XMR but I know some of them like TacoTime got some really cheap early buys.

Glad that the community is supporting those guys committing time to the project.

We all got some early mining or buying done, but we also sold to cover costs early on. I'm quite fine with being transparent, and we've occasionally spoken amongst ourselves about our respective "stash" (although the "make our stash worth more" context has been notably lacking). Including myself, I would guess that we collectively have substantially less than 50 000 XMR, probably closer to 30 000 XMR between the 7 of us.

Well, that comment is a perfect excuse to donate another 100XMR to the development fund in accordance with the Monero Community Hall of Fame (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=700400.0). 

Thanks greatly to all the developers.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: HardwarePal on July 23, 2014, 12:29:24 PM
I think this is relevant to post

I am personally doing a small survey about XMR for all the people interested in completing it :

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1JqIXkjKpcEpv6lyH6SD22f_Ny0i-rhM9bV21WcOFstw/viewform

I will be posting graphs when I have a large enough data sample.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Skinnkavaj on July 23, 2014, 12:42:57 PM
Monero distrubition is perfect. I love it.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Febo on July 23, 2014, 03:04:57 PM
Quote from: Skinnkavaj on July 23, 2014, 12:42:57 PM
Monero distrubition is perfect. I love it.

lol you sure? Would not you like to have more distributed on your part? I would for sure on mine.   ;D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Skinnkavaj on July 23, 2014, 05:45:40 PM
Monero just got even bigger now when Poloniex decided to add XMR markets

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: damashup on July 23, 2014, 06:26:53 PM
Quote from: Skinnkavaj on July 23, 2014, 05:45:40 PM
Monero just got even bigger now when Poloniex decided to add XMR markets

Until it's possible exchange Monero for fiat, I don't see the point of these markets. Way too early.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: 3x2 on July 23, 2014, 06:33:25 PM
Quote from: Skinnkavaj on July 23, 2014, 12:42:57 PM
Monero distrubition is perfect. I love it.

i want more  ;D its not perfect yet.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Febo on July 23, 2014, 06:34:03 PM
I see it as Poloniex tries to keep as much trading of Monero on their exchange as possible. Monero was 60-70% Poloniex volume from time it joined. I agree will not make huge difference. But still is some recognition of the coin.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Its About Sharing on July 23, 2014, 06:42:59 PM
Quote from: Febo on July 23, 2014, 06:34:03 PM
I see it as Poloniex tries to keep as much trading of Monero on their exchange as possible. Monero was 60-70% Poloniex volume from time it joined. I agree will not make huge difference. But still is some recognition of the coin.

But it might make a huge difference. If a whale wants to move some coins and another whale wants to buy Monero for a different crypto he is holding, it is off the order book, so to speak. Seems like it can increase liquidity also. And perhaps the anonymous nature of Monero fuels this more. More variables just got added...

I say things are getting more interesting.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Okurkabinladin on July 24, 2014, 03:00:57 PM
Bitcoin seems to be locked in downtrend, that could last for weeks. That could make Monero extremely attractive as a hedge.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on July 24, 2014, 06:47:14 PM
Subbed.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: kurious on July 25, 2014, 06:59:23 PM
Quote from: Nekomata on July 24, 2014, 07:01:17 AM
it makes all the difference, a major exchange gave a nice and well deserved vote of confidence to Monero, its a win-win situation since XMR is on the top there for quite some time.

+1 Agreed

Polo effectively dumped Litecoin markets for XMR ones - a big bet on Monero. Polo ain't stupid - they want the volume there.  LTC has been losing its link to BTC price now, I think it's a smart move for Poloniex and good for Monero. 

TBH I used my (too high) LTC holdings to buy Monero as in the first place and I can't say I regret it... 

Good thread, Risto - will keep an eye on it of course.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on July 27, 2014, 10:13:19 AM
Litecoin is the "Roman empire" of cryptos. They community really think they stay biggest altcoin forever. Just because of their history and some good numbers (in ratings/scorings) they still have, because the project is so old and once was seen as promising by the general CC scene, before the project failed and became inactive.
They think they are "to big to fail". ;) Because obvious ALL altcoins are inferior to LTC, because LTC has this $200.000.000 market cap or 200 more full nodes vs. DogeCoin. Real-life comedy.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Skinnkavaj on July 27, 2014, 05:09:06 PM
Quote from: dewdeded on July 27, 2014, 10:13:19 AM
Litecoin is the "Roman empire" of cryptos. They community really think they stay biggest altcoin forever. Just because of their history and some good numbers (in ratings/scorings) they still have, because the project is so old and once was seen as promising by the general CC scene, before the project failed and became inactive.
They think they are "to big to fail". ;) Because obvious ALL altcoins are inferior to LTC, because LTC has this $200.000.000 market cap or 200 more full nodes vs. DogeCoin. Real-life comedy.
Litecoin will still be a store of value just like Bitcoin is I am sure.
The thing is that people really manipulate the market by writing writing everywhere Litecoin is dead and then it arises from the ashes.
Monero can be the third coin no doubt about it.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on July 27, 2014, 11:45:16 PM
Quote from: Nekomata on July 27, 2014, 11:11:41 PM
Quote from: Skinnkavaj on July 27, 2014, 05:09:06 PM
Quote from: dewdeded on July 27, 2014, 10:13:19 AM
Litecoin is the "Roman empire" of cryptos. They community really think they stay biggest altcoin forever. Just because of their history and some good numbers (in ratings/scorings) they still have, because the project is so old and once was seen as promising by the general CC scene, before the project failed and became inactive.
They think they are "to big to fail". ;) Because obvious ALL altcoins are inferior to LTC, because LTC has this $200.000.000 market cap or 200 more full nodes vs. DogeCoin. Real-life comedy.
Litecoin will still be a store of value just like Bitcoin is I am sure.
The thing is that people really manipulate the market by writing writing everywhere Litecoin is dead and then it arises from the ashes.
Monero can be the third coin no doubt about it.


Litecoin can be the 3rd coin, Monero will be 2nd, nice sign btw lol I think we are both biased.

I don't think Litecoin can really be 3rd. If it loses 2nd it will rapidly drop a lot more. It's main selling point is "alternative to Bitcoin."


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 28, 2014, 08:32:12 AM
I am in the process of making a treatise on near-term (6 months) Monero economics. Just wanted to tell in advance and bookmark the thread for me. :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on July 28, 2014, 09:47:45 AM
 :) especially looking forward to the methodology

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 28, 2014, 11:23:37 AM
Just to open my thoughts, it would go along these lines..

Now the issuance is about 2.4 million. By 2014-12-31 it will be 5.5 million. This is a 129% increase.

Current number of owners is 8,000 (we need to do a thorough study on this, this one was a midpoint of many methods but not documented).

We need to estimate the potential growth, taking into account new exchanges (Cryptsy, BTC-E, China) and the coming GUI wallet.

Each new owner means on average $X buying pressure. Also many current owners are in the process of accumulating.

On the sell side, the miners sell, but the early making-a-quick-buck-when-it-hits-the-exchange crowd has largely sold according to my sources. When the price goes up, there is intense selling, even shorting (in this context: selling with the intention to buy back) but if the price breaks to the upside, some of the shorts have to buy back, aggravating the rise. When it goes really far, the diversifying pressure starts to materialize. It is not so pronounced yet, because the large holders typically hold much more BTC than XMR and can easily waith until there's a need to rebalance.

The distribution of coins to the owners of different size should theoretically follow power law for the top echelons. Now in my studies, I have found that many claim to have 20-50k coins but nobody seems to have 50k+. Perhaps they are lowplaying. Or perhaps they are too wealthy to participate in the polls. Or perhaps 20-50k just is a sweet spot for other reasons.

When the number of coins goes up 129% and the number of owners probably even more, we can already calculate the distribution of coins to the owners. So we will see how the top 1-3% changes, whether the same amount of coins that was enough to TOP-20 now, will be TOP-30 or TOP-40.

Why am I obsessed with the largest owners? Because they hold most of the coins. The top-0.1% in monero holds 28%, top-1% holds 50% and top-3% holds 62% (numbers taken directly from the definition of power law, so may not be accurate). Also, their collective action determines the value of the coin. If the top holders are in it for the long time, and do not have the intention or willingness to sell, but rather the willingness and means to accumulate, the value will certainly hold and rise.

Monero's backers include large holders of btc, also monero is an actual hedge for btc, which gives it more utility outside of speculation. If one wants to have 10% of his crypto stash in something else than btc for btc's sake, monero is the best candidate due to its technology and liquidity.

Using all these considerations and after crushing numbers, I should be able to forecast the number of owners, the distribution of coins between owners, and also the price level, in the end of December. The Monero devs are helping me with getting the historical data right.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Skinnkavaj on July 28, 2014, 02:04:02 PM
rpietila what I find very interesting about Monero is how much Bitcoin developers really like the CryptoNote concept. Take for example gmaxwell, PeterTodd, wumpus, nanotube etc.
Every name I mentioned have spoken well about XMR and currently three of the names are active in #Monero-dev.
wumpus is the leader of Bitcoin development team, he took over after Gavin and to my suprise I find him in the Monero dev channel.
I find this very interesting, because all of the guys here are really good cryptographers and have been the core bitcoin developers for years.

To see if the names here also particpate in other altcoin channels on freenode, I checked #darkcoin-dev, #darkcoin, #ethereum and #bytecoin and I could not find any of them has such a huge backing by good developers as Monero have.
For me as an investor, this give Monero huge credibility.

A question to you rpietila, did any of the above mentioned names influence you in your decision to support Monero? How did you find Monero from the very beginning?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 28, 2014, 05:18:14 PM
Quote from: Skinnkavaj on July 28, 2014, 02:04:02 PM
A question to you rpietila, did any of the above mentioned names influence you in your decision to support Monero? How did you find Monero from the very beginning?

Several people contacted me, and I also found out that the big names were, and are, flocking to Monero (in way greater numbers than in any shitcoins, and in higher numbers than the other 2.0 coins). For me, this is a very important factor when deciding where to invest.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: vuduchyld on July 28, 2014, 06:34:48 PM
subbed

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: binaryFate on July 28, 2014, 07:58:49 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 28, 2014, 11:23:37 AM
[...]
Using all these considerations and after crushing numbers, I should be able to forecast the number of owners, the distribution of coins between owners, and also the price level, in the end of December. The Monero devs are helping me with getting the historical data right.

Looking forward to this forecast! :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 28, 2014, 08:03:56 PM
Somebody was asking if there is a table of XMR prices. This is from Poloniex, compiled by myself, disclaimer applies.

Code:
Day	Price ksat
19.5.2014	314
20.5.2014	595
21.5.2014	378
22.5.2014	353
23.5.2014	391
24.5.2014	645
25.5.2014	608
26.5.2014	494
27.5.2014	427
28.5.2014	414
29.5.2014	349
30.5.2014	260
31.5.2014	302
1.6.2014	327
2.6.2014	284
3.6.2014	279
4.6.2014	284
5.6.2014	258
6.6.2014	212
7.6.2014	212
8.6.2014	201
9.6.2014	218
10.6.2014	273
11.6.2014	279
12.6.2014	286
13.6.2014	300
14.6.2014	406
15.6.2014	444
16.6.2014	524
17.6.2014	493
18.6.2014	446
19.6.2014	527
20.6.2014	640
21.6.2014	856
22.6.2014	755
23.6.2014	725
24.6.2014	570
25.6.2014	540
26.6.2014	526
27.6.2014	410
28.6.2014	414
29.6.2014	419
30.6.2014	414
1.7.2014	379
2.7.2014	367
3.7.2014	401
4.7.2014	429
5.7.2014	400
6.7.2014	378
7.7.2014	339
8.7.2014	352
9.7.2014	338
10.7.2014	327
11.7.2014	294
12.7.2014	284
13.7.2014	261
14.7.2014	284
15.7.2014	318
16.7.2014	400
17.7.2014	505
18.7.2014	444
19.7.2014	453
20.7.2014	435
21.7.2014	488
22.7.2014	510
23.7.2014	484
24.7.2014	431
25.7.2014	423
26.7.2014	452
27.7.2014	431

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on July 28, 2014, 08:05:47 PM
There are older prices archived on the OTC thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=578192.0

The chart there combines OTC with the cryptonote exchange that existed for some of that time period.

Quote from: rpietila on July 28, 2014, 08:03:56 PM
Somebody was asking if there is a table of XMR prices. This is from Poloniex, compiled by myself, disclaimer applies.

Code:
Day	Price ksat
19.5.2014	314
20.5.2014	595
21.5.2014	378
22.5.2014	353
23.5.2014	391
24.5.2014	645
25.5.2014	608
26.5.2014	494
27.5.2014	427
28.5.2014	414
29.5.2014	349
30.5.2014	260
31.5.2014	302
1.6.2014	327
2.6.2014	284
3.6.2014	279
4.6.2014	284
5.6.2014	258
6.6.2014	212
7.6.2014	212
8.6.2014	201
9.6.2014	218
10.6.2014	273
11.6.2014	279
12.6.2014	286
13.6.2014	300
14.6.2014	406
15.6.2014	444
16.6.2014	524
17.6.2014	493
18.6.2014	446
19.6.2014	527
20.6.2014	640
21.6.2014	856
22.6.2014	755
23.6.2014	725
24.6.2014	570
25.6.2014	540
26.6.2014	526
27.6.2014	410
28.6.2014	414
29.6.2014	419
30.6.2014	414
1.7.2014	379
2.7.2014	367
3.7.2014	401
4.7.2014	429
5.7.2014	400
6.7.2014	378
7.7.2014	339
8.7.2014	352
9.7.2014	338
10.7.2014	327
11.7.2014	294
12.7.2014	284
13.7.2014	261
14.7.2014	284
15.7.2014	318
16.7.2014	400
17.7.2014	505
18.7.2014	444
19.7.2014	453
20.7.2014	435
21.7.2014	488
22.7.2014	510
23.7.2014	484
24.7.2014	431
25.7.2014	423
26.7.2014	452
27.7.2014	431

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: saddambitcoin on July 28, 2014, 09:08:36 PM
I suspect Monero will test 0.005 this week, a lot of people likely sold expecting another lengthy slow decline. Now the bid sum has gone up 4x since the last rise and the market sentiment is changing. A lot of people dumped in the past week and are looking to buy back in (me too, but i was holding 1000:1 XMR:BTC).

The facts:
-Veteran BTC lead devs and BTC whales are interested and active in XMR.
-Bitcoin itself is now increasingly focused on non-interesting things - regulation, not innovation. [perhaps fine for attracting bigger investors, but personally i miss the old bitcoin spirit]
-Hashrate on Monero continually increasing, Scrypt ASICs will displace a lot of GPU miners and I suppose they will come to XMR if they haven't already.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Roy Badami on July 28, 2014, 09:52:57 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 28, 2014, 05:18:14 PM
Quote from: Skinnkavaj on July 28, 2014, 02:04:02 PM
A question to you rpietila, did any of the above mentioned names influence you in your decision to support Monero? How did you find Monero from the very beginning?

Several people contacted me, and I also found out that the big names were, and are, flocking to Monero (in way greater numbers than in any shitcoins, and in higher numbers than the other 2.0 coins). For me, this is a very important factor when deciding where to invest.

I'm not sure I'd damn XMR with the '2.0' moniker.  AFAICT the '2.0' name is being used to describe the 'platform' coins like Mastercoin and Ethereum whose primary purposes are supposed to be to enable all sorts of other applications, rather than simply to act as currencies.  XMR is, fundamentally, simply a coin that tries to be currency (and nothing more than a currency) - albeit the only serious contender in the currency sphere with any interesting technical innovation over BTC.

(And for the avoidance of doubt, I'm very wary of the whole 2.0 scene, and the above is not intended in any way to be critical of XMR - quite the contrary!)

roy

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nioc on July 28, 2014, 10:57:02 PM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on July 28, 2014, 09:08:36 PM
I suspect Monero will test 0.005 this week, a lot of people likely sold expecting another lengthy slow decline. Now the bid sum has gone up 4x since the last rise and the market sentiment is changing. A lot of people dumped in the past week and are looking to buy back in (me too, but i was holding 1000:1 XMR:BTC).

The facts:
-Veteran BTC lead devs and BTC whales are interested and active in XMR.
-Bitcoin itself is now increasingly focused on non-interesting things - regulation, not innovation. [perhaps fine for attracting bigger investors, but personally i miss the old bitcoin spirit]
-Hashrate on Monero continually increasing, Scrypt ASICs will displace a lot of GPU miners and I suppose they will come to XMR if they haven't already.



I basically agree with you.  But.  On Poloniex where all the action is there is 240 btc bid at 390 which is 36% of the total.  80 btc of it was placed 3 days ago when the price was dropping for 36 hrs and accelerating.  It has been relatively stable since, yes that is a short time.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: saddambitcoin on July 29, 2014, 04:26:23 AM
Quote from: nioc on July 28, 2014, 10:57:02 PM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on July 28, 2014, 09:08:36 PM
I suspect Monero will test 0.005 this week, a lot of people likely sold expecting another lengthy slow decline. Now the bid sum has gone up 4x since the last rise and the market sentiment is changing. A lot of people dumped in the past week and are looking to buy back in (me too, but i was holding 1000:1 XMR:BTC).

The facts:
-Veteran BTC lead devs and BTC whales are interested and active in XMR.
-Bitcoin itself is now increasingly focused on non-interesting things - regulation, not innovation. [perhaps fine for attracting bigger investors, but personally i miss the old bitcoin spirit]
-Hashrate on Monero continually increasing, Scrypt ASICs will displace a lot of GPU miners and I suppose they will come to XMR if they haven't already.



I basically agree with you.  But.  On Poloniex where all the action is there is 240 btc bid at 390 which is 36% of the total.  80 btc of it was placed 3 days ago when the price was dropping for 36 hrs and accelerating.  It has been relatively stable since, yes that is a short time.

True. I should also consider, Mr. 0039 holds perhaps 30,000 BTC and wants to hedge 1% in an altcoin. If he loses 300 BTC in the end, no big loss to him. But a small investment now could save him 3-5 years from now when Bitcoin is regulated up the ass and he wants to be liquid in the free money that is Monero!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dreamspark on July 29, 2014, 09:46:31 AM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on July 29, 2014, 04:26:23 AM

True. I should also consider, Mr. 0039 holds perhaps 30,000 BTC and wants to hedge 1% in an altcoin. If he loses 300 BTC in the end, no big loss to him. But a small investment now could save him 3-5 years from now when Bitcoin is regulated up the ass and he wants to be liquid in the free money that is Monero!

Yep but he might not even get a chance at that price, some serious support has been built in front of it and the amount of XMR on sale is dwindling quickly. This has always been a problem in regards to whales diversifying as there just aren't enough coins for them to buy without moving the market significantly.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on July 29, 2014, 09:57:14 AM
there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on July 29, 2014, 10:02:38 AM
Quote from: nakaone on July 29, 2014, 09:57:14 AM
there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

Not a bad idea. I wonder how to organize it though. I occasionally get PMs but rarely do I hear from both sides at the same time.

Big traders don't want to show their hand, so listing on a thread is probably not going to work.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 29, 2014, 10:44:31 AM
One possibility would be a market batch eg. 5,000 XMR. One would always be able to buy or sell one with the market maker, or list several for sale. I once had such a thing for $500 f/v bags of silver.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dEBRUYNE on July 29, 2014, 12:38:44 PM
Quote from: nakaone on July 29, 2014, 09:57:14 AM
there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much


I would also be interested in this, maybe some one reputable can set this up?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Triffin on July 29, 2014, 01:18:55 PM
Wouldn't NXT asset exchange ( AE ) work for what you propose ??

Triff ..

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dEBRUYNE on July 29, 2014, 06:56:37 PM
Quote from: Triffin on July 29, 2014, 01:18:55 PM
Wouldn't NXT asset exchange ( AE ) work for what you propose ??

Triff ..

I think a thread here on bitcointalk with some reputable members would be a better idea. Some people don't have the time or willingness to learn how to use the AE..

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on July 29, 2014, 08:46:59 PM
Quote from: dEBRUYNE on July 29, 2014, 12:38:44 PM
Quote from: nakaone on July 29, 2014, 09:57:14 AM
there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much


I would also be interested in this, maybe some one reputable can set this up?

Let's start with this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716331.0

It can evolve to meet the needs of those participating, if any.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dEBRUYNE on July 29, 2014, 08:50:26 PM
Quote from: smooth on July 29, 2014, 08:46:59 PM
Quote from: dEBRUYNE on July 29, 2014, 12:38:44 PM
Quote from: nakaone on July 29, 2014, 09:57:14 AM
there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much


I would also be interested in this, maybe some one reputable can set this up?

Let's start with this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716331.0

It can evolve to meet the needs of those participating, if any.



Looks nice!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 07:16:46 AM
Quote from: buybitcoinscanada on July 29, 2014, 10:09:58 PM
Quote from: dEBRUYNE on July 29, 2014, 06:56:37 PM
Quote from: Triffin on July 29, 2014, 01:18:55 PM
Wouldn't NXT asset exchange ( AE ) work for what you propose ??

Triff ..

I think a thread here on bitcointalk with some reputable members would be a better idea. Some people don't have the time or willingness to learn how to use the AE..

You must let go of the legacy methods and embrace the new eventually. If those of us in the thick of it don't, then who can be expected to? The Nxt AE would be great for this. If people remain in the past with these things; especially when guided to, then progress becomes much less progressive.

Please go set up such a thing! I want to see how it works. :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 11:28:13 AM
The table of some of the historical figures of Monero:

Code:
Day	Date	#XMR (kxmr)	ksat/xmr	mktcap (btc)	volume(kxmr)	inflation/day
1	18.4.2014	16	20	3	0	162,46 %
2	19.4.2014	41	20	8	0	61,81 %
3	20.4.2014	66	20	13	0	38,15 %
4	21.4.2014	91	20	18	0	27,58 %
5	22.4.2014	117	20	23	1	21,59 %
6	23.4.2014	142	20	28	2	17,73 %
7	24.4.2014	167	20	33	2	15,04 %
8	25.4.2014	192	20	38	10	13,05 %
9	26.4.2014	217	20	43	5	11,53 %
10	27.4.2014	242	25	61	16	10,32 %
11	28.4.2014	267	25	67	6	9,35 %
12	29.4.2014	292	25	73	0	8,54 %
13	30.4.2014	317	30	95	2	7,85 %
14	1.5.2014	342	30	103	2	7,27 %
15	2.5.2014	367	36	132	12	6,77 %
16	3.5.2014	392	39	153	8	6,33 %
17	4.5.2014	416	44	183	9	5,95 %
18	5.5.2014	441	80	353	18	5,60 %
19	6.5.2014	466	124	578	13	5,30 %
20	7.5.2014	491	134	657	5	5,03 %
21	8.5.2014	515	102	526	4	4,78 %
22	9.5.2014	540	109	588	3	4,55 %
23	10.5.2014	564	104	587	3	4,35 %
24	11.5.2014	589	112	660	6	4,16 %
25	12.5.2014	614	130	798	21	3,99 %
26	13.5.2014	638	140	893	25	3,83 %
27	14.5.2014	663	135	894	25	3,69 %
28	15.5.2014	687	120	824	25	3,55 %
29	16.5.2014	711	100	711	50	3,42 %
30	17.5.2014	736	100	736	11	3,31 %
31	18.5.2014	760	90	684	12	3,20 %
32	19.5.2014	784	314	2463	15	3,09 %
33	20.5.2014	809	595	4811	170	3,00 %
34	21.5.2014	833	378	3148	132	2,90 %
35	22.5.2014	857	353	3025	72	2,82 %
36	23.5.2014	881	391	3445	97	2,74 %
37	24.5.2014	905	645	5839	75	2,66 %
38	25.5.2014	929	608	5650	83	2,59 %
39	26.5.2014	953	494	4710	74	2,52 %
40	27.5.2014	977	427	4173	38	2,45 %
41	28.5.2014	1 001	414	4146	75	2,39 %
42	29.5.2014	1 025	349	3578	52	2,33 %
43	30.5.2014	1 049	260	2728	75	2,28 %
44	31.5.2014	1 073	302	3241	62	2,22 %
45	1.6.2014	1 097	327	3587	64	2,17 %
46	2.6.2014	1 121	284	3183	27	2,12 %
47	3.6.2014	1 145	279	3194	48	2,08 %
48	4.6.2014	1 168	284	3318	28	2,03 %
49	5.6.2014	1 192	258	3076	49	1,99 %
50	6.6.2014	1 216	212	2578	71	1,95 %
51	7.6.2014	1 239	212	2628	30	1,91 %
52	8.6.2014	1 263	201	2539	29	1,87 %
53	9.6.2014	1 287	218	2805	38	1,83 %
54	10.6.2014	1 310	273	3577	100	1,80 %
55	11.6.2014	1 334	279	3721	47	1,76 %
56	12.6.2014	1 357	286	3882	63	1,73 %
57	13.6.2014	1 381	300	4142	44	1,70 %
58	14.6.2014	1 404	406	5701	111	1,67 %
59	15.6.2014	1 428	444	6339	54	1,64 %
60	16.6.2014	1 451	524	7603	132	1,61 %
61	17.6.2014	1 474	493	7268	64	1,58 %
62	18.6.2014	1 498	446	6680	60	1,55 %
63	19.6.2014	1 521	527	8015	76	1,53 %
64	20.6.2014	1 544	640	9883	127	1,50 %
65	21.6.2014	1 567	856	13417	118	1,48 %
66	22.6.2014	1 591	755	12009	89	1,46 %
67	23.6.2014	1 614	725	11699	74	1,43 %
68	24.6.2014	1 637	570	9330	83	1,41 %
69	25.6.2014	1 660	540	8964	43	1,39 %
70	26.6.2014	1 683	526	8852	23	1,37 %
71	27.6.2014	1 706	410	6995	68	1,35 %
72	28.6.2014	1 729	414	7158	49	1,33 %
73	29.6.2014	1 752	419	7341	35	1,31 %
74	30.6.2014	1 775	414	7348	30	1,29 %
75	1.7.2014	1 798	379	6813	28	1,27 %
76	2.7.2014	1 821	367	6682	26	1,25 %
77	3.7.2014	1 843	401	7392	41	1,24 %
78	4.7.2014	1 866	429	8006	40	1,22 %
79	5.7.2014	1 889	400	7556	14	1,20 %
80	6.7.2014	1 912	378	7226	20	1,19 %
81	7.7.2014	1 934	339	6558	29	1,17 %
82	8.7.2014	1 957	352	6889	31	1,16 %
83	9.7.2014	1 980	338	6692	23	1,14 %
84	10.7.2014	2 002	327	6548	32	1,13 %
85	11.7.2014	2 025	294	5953	45	1,11 %
86	12.7.2014	2 048	284	5815	25	1,10 %
87	13.7.2014	2 070	261	5403	46	1,09 %
88	14.7.2014	2 093	284	5943	38	1,07 %
89	15.7.2014	2 115	318	6726	44	1,06 %
90	16.7.2014	2 137	400	8550	104	1,05 %
91	17.7.2014	2 160	505	10907	112	1,04 %
92	18.7.2014	2 182	444	9689	82	1,02 %
93	19.7.2014	2 205	453	9987	41	1,01 %
94	20.7.2014	2 227	435	9687	32	1,00 %
95	21.7.2014	2 249	488	10976	60	0,99 %
96	22.7.2014	2 271	510	11584	62	0,98 %
97	23.7.2014	2 294	484	11101	65	0,97 %
98	24.7.2014	2 316	431	9981	94	0,96 %
99	25.7.2014	2 338	423	9889	60	0,95 %
100	26.7.2014	2 369	452	10707	39	0,93 %
101	27.7.2014	2 391	431	10305	37	0,92 %
102	28.7.2014	2 413	439	10593	43	0,91 %

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 11:32:24 AM
Notes: The price is a volume-weighted daily average of:
- OTC thread, until
- Cryptonote exchange, until
- Poloniex.

So it is likely quite close to the actual market price. The very beginning is set to 20ksat due to volume considerations.

The volume only counts the abovementioned sources, so it understates the actual volume quite a bit.

The number of coins is according to model, so it might deviate slightly (~1%) of the actual.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 11:36:27 AM
I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated and small bounties will be given for any information that might help to estimate anything related to this. Currently the usercount numbers are too speculative to be published, and all further econometrics that might be derived from having them available is lost to the world.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 11:45:09 AM
The all-time volume weighted average price of XMR is 0.00426 by the way, with approximately normal distribution centered around this price, and 81% of the volume of the trades in [0.002, 0.006] range. Volume is denominated in XMR.

If the volume is denominated in BTC though, the average is higher, at 0.00485.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: pinky on July 30, 2014, 12:11:07 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 11:36:27 AM
I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated...

Have you thought about asking Poloniex exchange? XMR is currently pretty centralized (50-70% volume) on Poloniex and in the past weeks they had 80% of all volume, I am sure by telling you this numbers for your research they wouldn't be breaching any confidentiality - they even had counter of all users and currently logged in users and XMR was 90% of their trade volume.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: MoneroMooo on July 30, 2014, 12:21:07 PM
Quote
I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated and small bounties will be given for any information that might help to estimate anything related to this. Currently the usercount numbers are too speculative to be published, and all further econometrics that might be derived from having them available is lost to the world.

Miners can be estimated by the pool logs:

grep Accepted.*share pool.log | sed -e 's/ .*from.\([a-zA-Z0-9]*\)@.*/ \1/' | awk '{if(!d[$1,$2]){d[$1,$2]=1;t[$1]++}}END{for(n in t){print n ": " t[n]}}' | sort

This outputs a list of number of miners per day.

Mine ranges from 1 to 4 (whee!) per day.

Of course, since miners change pools, you'll get an overestimate unless you feed the logs to this command at once so the same address isn't counted multiple times. Then this gives you a lower bound to total users. If you then know the typical miners/users ratio from other coins with a more public blockchain at a point in their history similar to XMR now, you can extrapolate miners to users too.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 12:31:13 PM
Quote from: MoneroMooo on July 30, 2014, 12:21:07 PM
Quote
I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated and small bounties will be given for any information that might help to estimate anything related to this. Currently the usercount numbers are too speculative to be published, and all further econometrics that might be derived from having them available is lost to the world.

Miners can be estimated by the pool logs:

grep Accepted.*share pool.log | sed -e 's/ .*from.\([a-zA-Z0-9]*\)@.*/ \1/' | awk '{if(!d[$1,$2]){d[$1,$2]=1;t[$1]++}}END{for(n in t){print n ": " t[n]}}' | sort

This outputs a list of number of miners per day.

Mine ranges from 1 to 4 (whee!) per day.

Of course, since miners change pools, you'll get an overestimate unless you feed the logs to this command at once so the same address isn't counted multiple times. Then this gives you a lower bound to total users. If you then know the typical miners/users ratio from other coins with a more public blockchain at a point in their history similar to XMR now, you can extrapolate miners to users too.



Lets be fair though finding out the number of miners connected to a pool has almost no bearing on users of the coin on any given day in history. Lets also not forget that even if in some way it could that would just show you the amount of miners connected to the known pools and tell you nothing of the private pools and also the solo miners.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: adhitthana on July 30, 2014, 12:57:45 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 02:21:35 PM
So truly, now it is possible to make up if you were late from Bitcoin. Just take the 100:1 leverage (or more) :) I will write about the XMR:BTC ratio concept more soon! :)
Haven't you been recommending people buy XMR up to 0.005? Or did I get this wrong?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 01:08:32 PM
Quote from: adhitthana on July 30, 2014, 12:57:45 PM
Are you suggesting people should pay more than 0.005 for XMR?

Probably, when XMR goes through 0.005 and especially 0.006 (that is a resistance), it will still be a buy.

But why bother as small amounts can still be bought at 0.0045.. :)

I was fiercely advocating people to buy Bitcoin at $22, and still do at $575, because the higher price is proof of larger adoption, which means higher probability of success.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 01:10:26 PM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 12:31:13 PM
Lets be fair though finding out the number of miners connected to a pool has almost no bearing on users of the coin on any given day in history. Lets also not forget that even if in some way it could that would just show you the amount of miners connected to the known pools and tell you nothing of the private pools and also the solo miners.

It is a useful piece of information still. At least it is doubtful that the ownership is less than the number of miners.

No single source can give a complete answer to the number of users question, so we must take what is available and work from that.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 01:14:36 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 01:10:26 PM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 12:31:13 PM
Lets be fair though finding out the number of miners connected to a pool has almost no bearing on users of the coin on any given day in history. Lets also not forget that even if in some way it could that would just show you the amount of miners connected to the known pools and tell you nothing of the private pools and also the solo miners.

It is a useful piece of information still. At least it is doubtful that the ownership is less than the number of miners.

No single source can give a complete answer to the number of users question, so we must take what is available and work from that.

Is it?

There are known botnets that have thousands of very low hash (5 h/s) connections.

What about all the miners who just mine for profits and instantly convert to btc?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 01:15:27 PM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 01:14:36 PM
There are known botnets that have thousands of very low hash (5 h/s) connections.

I can only comment on that after seeing the data, not from hearsay.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 01:19:06 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 01:15:27 PM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 01:14:36 PM
There are known botnets that have thousands of very low hash (5 h/s) connections.

I can only comment on that after seeing the data, not from hearsay.

Fair enough, Im just letting you know what the data will tell you and why I don't think it will be too useful in the quest to ascertain the number of user on any given day. Its not hearsay its an accepted fact, speak to some pool ops and you will get a better idea of the mining landscape.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: MoneroMooo on July 30, 2014, 01:29:54 PM
It is my understanding that botnets from one herder will mine to one single address (or at least very few of them). I think it's fair that they be counted as one single user (or just a few, respectively). If they do not, then you do get a large overestimation for the command, yes.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 02:42:58 PM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 01:19:06 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 01:15:27 PM
Quote from: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 01:14:36 PM
There are known botnets that have thousands of very low hash (5 h/s) connections.

I can only comment on that after seeing the data, not from hearsay.

Fair enough, Im just letting you know what the data will tell you and why I don't think it will be too useful in the quest to ascertain the number of user on any given day. Its not hearsay its an accepted fact, speak to some pool ops and you will get a better idea of the mining landscape.

Please provide me with the data. Otherwise I am not qualified to comment.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 02:59:30 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 02:42:58 PM


Please provide me with the data. Otherwise I am not qualified to comment.

Im not a pool op ask them, I dont have time to ask every single one of them to provide me with the data you need. I was simply making a comment based on moneromoos method for polling pool logs as a way of estimating users on a given day. Based on the knowledge of the mining landscape that I have I dont think it will give you any useful information for a number of reasons. There are the ones outlined above plus the fact that the known pools only make up ~60% of the network, the rest being private pools and solominers. Once you get that data (if you think its useful to you) I look forward to reading your analysis :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 03:29:39 PM
More work-in-progress concerning Monero:

- If we accept that Bitcoin has (still only) 1 million owners, the (market cap)/(owners) = BTC13 ~ $7,500. The median investment is way smaller though - statistically in power law conditions, the median is 1:4.8 of the mean. Thus an "average Joe" holds ~$1,600 worth of bitcoins even though the (arithmetical) average of all the holdings is ~$7,500.

- This has not always been so. In January 2013, it is likely that Bitcoin had about 100,000 owners. The (market cap)/(owners) was = BTC106, but valued only at ~$1,400. The median, the "average Joe's share" was only $290. This was after the first 4 years of cryptocurrency.

- With Monero 3.5 months old now, the (market cap)/(owners) is = BTC1.3 valued at ~$750. Median is lower accordingly.

- 81% of all Monero trade is conducted at prices between BTC0.002-BTC0.006. The cost of mining has typically been higher than the value of coins.

- Monero offers an interesting experiment of a coin that has generated next to no value out of thin air during its lifespan. This is in contrast to 99% of the altcoins, including predominantly the PoS coins and premined coins, that aim to generate as much value as possible out of nothing, relying on the perceived utility of the product.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on July 30, 2014, 04:43:49 PM
Despite similar distribution models, interesting that early Monero adopters have essentially had to buy in at a higher price than bitcoin was through much of its lifespan.




Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: wpalczynski on July 30, 2014, 04:48:49 PM
Interesting point you make about people mining at essentially a loss.  Im curious to know if this has happened with any other cryptos with the exception of BTC of course.  It speaks strongly to how much faith people have in Monero.  Does anyone have a link to a comparison of hashrates for different coins including Monero?  The only charts I can find dont include Monero.

Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 03:29:39 PM
More work-in-progress concerning Monero:

- If we accept that Bitcoin has (still only) 1 million owners, the (market cap)/(owners) = BTC13 ~ $7,500. The median investment is way smaller though - statistically in power law conditions, the median is 1:4.8 of the mean. Thus an "average Joe" holds ~$1,600 worth of bitcoins even though the (arithmetical) average of all the holdings is ~$7,500.

- This has not always been so. In January 2013, it is likely that Bitcoin had about 100,000 owners. The (market cap)/(owners) was = BTC106, but valued only at ~$1,400. The median, the "average Joe's share" was only $290. This was after the first 4 years of cryptocurrency.

- With Monero 3.5 months old now, the (market cap)/(owners) is = BTC1.3 valued at ~$750. Median is lower accordingly.

- 81% of all Monero trade is conducted at prices between BTC0.002-BTC0.006. The cost of mining has typically been higher than the value of coins.

- Monero offers an interesting experiment of a coin that has generated next to no value out of thin air during its lifespan. This is in contrast to 99% of the altcoins, including predominantly the PoS coins and premined coins, that aim to generate as much value as possible out of nothing, relying on the perceived utility of the product.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Wexlike on July 30, 2014, 05:13:59 PM
Quote from: wpalczynski on July 30, 2014, 04:48:49 PM
Interesting point you make about people mining at essentially a loss.  Im curious to know if this has happened with any other cryptos with the exception of BTC of course.  It speaks strongly to how much faith people have in Monero.  Does anyone have a link to a comparison of hashrates for different coins including Monero?  The only charts I can find dont include Monero.

Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 03:29:39 PM
More work-in-progress concerning Monero:

- If we accept that Bitcoin has (still only) 1 million owners, the (market cap)/(owners) = BTC13 ~ $7,500. The median investment is way smaller though - statistically in power law conditions, the median is 1:4.8 of the mean. Thus an "average Joe" holds ~$1,600 worth of bitcoins even though the (arithmetical) average of all the holdings is ~$7,500.

- This has not always been so. In January 2013, it is likely that Bitcoin had about 100,000 owners. The (market cap)/(owners) was = BTC106, but valued only at ~$1,400. The median, the "average Joe's share" was only $290. This was after the first 4 years of cryptocurrency.

- With Monero 3.5 months old now, the (market cap)/(owners) is = BTC1.3 valued at ~$750. Median is lower accordingly.

- 81% of all Monero trade is conducted at prices between BTC0.002-BTC0.006. The cost of mining has typically been higher than the value of coins.

- Monero offers an interesting experiment of a coin that has generated next to no value out of thin air during its lifespan. This is in contrast to 99% of the altcoins, including predominantly the PoS coins and premined coins, that aim to generate as much value as possible out of nothing, relying on the perceived utility of the product.

As a gpu/cpu miner you are at a loss with approximately every algorithm(scrypt, scrypt-n, x11, x13, x15) for months, excluding a few flashmined shitcoins. With Monero you can still break even with your electricity cost in Europe, and make a profit with lower electricity prices. Imho, from a miner point of view, monero is still too profitable for its market price.

For example here a comparison for one of my rigs:

Algorithm - daily profit without electricity costs

monero - 0,00924 btc
most profitable scrypt-n - 0,00266 btc -71% less profitable than monero
most profitable x11 - 0,00312 -66% less profitable than monero

compared to all other altcoins, monero is really expensive(=very profitable for miners) for its network hashrate. (again from a miners point of view)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: damashup on July 30, 2014, 06:24:22 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 03:29:39 PM

- 81% of all Monero trade is conducted at prices between BTC0.002-BTC0.006. The cost of mining has typically been higher than the value of coins.


I believe the price of Monero (and other Cryptonote coins) is being deflated by a small number of miners, mining the majority of the coins at little/ no cost. These miners are also driven by an imperative to sell as fast as they can, rather than getting maximum value.

Very difficult to illustrate on Monero, given the buy interest (thus deflationary resistance) is huge.

But if you look at Boolberry you'll see what I mean. A few weeks watching the trading activity, charts etc., of Boolberry on Poloniex leads me to the conclusion that:
  • there is a single miner ('Miner X') sweeping up the majority of the block rewards for BBR.
  • Miner X dumps on Poloniex two to three times a day and takes a break a couple of days a week
  • Rock bottom for the known private gpu miners is around 0.0005 to 0.00055 BTC/ BBR, I suspect this miner's bottom is around 0.0003 to 0.00035 BTC although it could be lower. Over weekend Miner X virtually bottomed out the buy interest of BBR at 0.0003. Possibly left the coin, hence the decrease in harsh rate.
[There is also some extraordinary transaction volume activity on BBR suggest someone (could be Miner X) potentially own 30% of all coins in circulation - although I won't major on this - the evidence could be explained in other way, I'd invite you to look at my previous post on this. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=577267.msg8048106#msg8048106]

Not picking on Boolberry (I think it's a great coin), it's just happens to be a coin where the dumping is so flagrant and transparent.

I imagine the 100s possibly 1000s of other miners of Monero et al (mining at a loss) are holding on to the few coins they've etched until the price rises. I suspect the prices will not rise (and hold a significantly higher price), until the emission rate decreases significantly.

Just a perspective.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: wpalczynski on July 30, 2014, 06:41:06 PM
Any projections as to when the emission rate will decrease for Monero?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on July 30, 2014, 06:48:00 PM
Quote from: wpalczynski on July 30, 2014, 06:41:06 PM
Any projections as to when the emission rate will decrease for Monero?

It declines a little bit every single block, falling by half in approximately 2 years 18 months.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 06:53:55 PM
Quote from: wpalczynski on July 30, 2014, 06:41:06 PM
Any projections as to when the emission rate will decrease for Monero?

Code:
day	coins	new
18.4.2014	15 580	25 333
19.4.2014	40 891	25 311
20.4.2014	66 168	25 277
21.4.2014	91 410	25 242
22.4.2014	116 617	25 207
23.4.2014	141 790	25 173
24.4.2014	166 928	25 138
25.4.2014	192 031	25 104
26.4.2014	217 100	25 069
27.4.2014	242 135	25 035
28.4.2014	267 135	25 000
29.4.2014	292 101	24 966
30.4.2014	317 033	24 932
1.5.2014	341 930	24 897
2.5.2014	366 793	24 863
3.5.2014	391 622	24 829
4.5.2014	416 417	24 795
5.5.2014	441 178	24 761
6.5.2014	465 905	24 727
7.5.2014	490 598	24 693
8.5.2014	515 257	24 659
9.5.2014	539 882	24 625
10.5.2014	564 473	24 591
11.5.2014	589 031	24 558
12.5.2014	613 555	24 524
13.5.2014	638 045	24 490
14.5.2014	662 501	24 457
15.5.2014	686 924	24 423
16.5.2014	711 314	24 389
17.5.2014	735 670	24 356
18.5.2014	759 992	24 322
19.5.2014	784 281	24 289
20.5.2014	808 537	24 256
21.5.2014	832 759	24 222
22.5.2014	856 948	24 189
23.5.2014	881 104	24 156
24.5.2014	905 227	24 123
25.5.2014	929 317	24 090
26.5.2014	953 373	24 057
27.5.2014	977 397	24 023
28.5.2014	1 001 387	23 990
29.5.2014	1 025 345	23 958
30.5.2014	1 049 269	23 925
31.5.2014	1 073 161	23 892
1.6.2014	1 097 020	23 859
2.6.2014	1 120 846	23 826
3.6.2014	1 144 640	23 793
4.6.2014	1 168 401	23 761
5.6.2014	1 192 129	23 728
6.6.2014	1 215 824	23 696
7.6.2014	1 239 487	23 663
8.6.2014	1 263 118	23 631
9.6.2014	1 286 716	23 598
10.6.2014	1 310 282	23 566
11.6.2014	1 333 815	23 533
12.6.2014	1 357 316	23 501
13.6.2014	1 380 785	23 469
14.6.2014	1 404 222	23 437
15.6.2014	1 427 626	23 404
16.6.2014	1 450 998	23 372
17.6.2014	1 474 338	23 340
18.6.2014	1 497 646	23 308
19.6.2014	1 520 922	23 276
20.6.2014	1 544 166	23 244
21.6.2014	1 567 379	23 212
22.6.2014	1 590 559	23 180
23.6.2014	1 613 707	23 148
24.6.2014	1 636 824	23 117
25.6.2014	1 659 909	23 085
26.6.2014	1 682 962	23 053
27.6.2014	1 705 984	23 022
28.6.2014	1 728 974	22 990
29.6.2014	1 751 932	22 958
30.6.2014	1 774 859	22 927
1.7.2014	1 797 754	22 895
2.7.2014	1 820 618	22 864
3.7.2014	1 843 451	22 833
4.7.2014	1 866 252	22 801
5.7.2014	1 889 022	22 770
6.7.2014	1 911 760	22 739
7.7.2014	1 934 467	22 707
8.7.2014	1 957 144	22 676
9.7.2014	1 979 789	22 645
10.7.2014	2 002 403	22 614
11.7.2014	2 024 985	22 583
12.7.2014	2 047 537	22 552
13.7.2014	2 070 058	22 521
14.7.2014	2 092 548	22 490
15.7.2014	2 115 007	22 459
16.7.2014	2 137 435	22 428
17.7.2014	2 159 833	22 397
18.7.2014	2 182 199	22 367
19.7.2014	2 204 535	22 336
20.7.2014	2 226 841	22 305
21.7.2014	2 249 115	22 275
22.7.2014	2 271 359	22 244
23.7.2014	2 293 573	22 214
24.7.2014	2 315 756	22 183
25.7.2014	2 337 908	22 153
26.7.2014	2 368 839	22 122
27.7.2014	2 390 919	22 080
28.7.2014	2 412 968	22 049
29.7.2014	2 434 987	22 019
30.7.2014	2 456 976	21 989
31.7.2014	2 478 934	21 959
1.8.2014	2 500 863	21 928
2.8.2014	2 522 761	21 898
3.8.2014	2 544 629	21 868
4.8.2014	2 566 468	21 838
5.8.2014	2 588 276	21 808
6.8.2014	2 610 054	21 778
7.8.2014	2 631 803	21 748
8.8.2014	2 653 521	21 719
9.8.2014	2 675 210	21 689
10.8.2014	2 696 869	21 659
11.8.2014	2 718 498	21 629
12.8.2014	2 740 097	21 599
13.8.2014	2 761 667	21 570
14.8.2014	2 783 207	21 540
15.8.2014	2 804 718	21 511
16.8.2014	2 826 199	21 481
17.8.2014	2 847 651	21 452
18.8.2014	2 869 073	21 422
19.8.2014	2 890 465	21 393
20.8.2014	2 911 829	21 363
21.8.2014	2 933 163	21 334
22.8.2014	2 954 467	21 305
23.8.2014	2 975 743	21 275
24.8.2014	2 996 989	21 246
25.8.2014	3 018 206	21 217
26.8.2014	3 039 394	21 188
27.8.2014	3 060 552	21 159
28.8.2014	3 081 682	21 130
29.8.2014	3 102 783	21 101
30.8.2014	3 123 855	21 072
31.8.2014	3 144 897	21 043
1.9.2014	3 165 911	21 014
2.9.2014	3 186 896	20 985
3.9.2014	3 207 853	20 956
4.9.2014	3 228 780	20 927
5.9.2014	3 249 679	20 899
6.9.2014	3 270 549	20 870
7.9.2014	3 291 390	20 841
8.9.2014	3 312 203	20 813
9.9.2014	3 332 987	20 784
10.9.2014	3 353 742	20 756
11.9.2014	3 374 469	20 727
12.9.2014	3 395 168	20 699
13.9.2014	3 415 838	20 670
14.9.2014	3 436 480	20 642
15.9.2014	3 457 094	20 613
16.9.2014	3 477 679	20 585
17.9.2014	3 498 236	20 557
18.9.2014	3 518 764	20 529
19.9.2014	3 539 265	20 500
20.9.2014	3 559 737	20 472
21.9.2014	3 580 181	20 444
22.9.2014	3 600 597	20 416
23.9.2014	3 620 985	20 388
24.9.2014	3 641 345	20 360
25.9.2014	3 661 678	20 332
26.9.2014	3 681 982	20 304
27.9.2014	3 702 258	20 276
28.9.2014	3 722 507	20 248
29.9.2014	3 742 727	20 221
30.9.2014	3 762 920	20 193
1.10.2014	3 783 085	20 165
2.10.2014	3 803 223	20 137
3.10.2014	3 823 333	20 110
4.10.2014	3 843 415	20 082
5.10.2014	3 863 469	20 055
6.10.2014	3 883 497	20 027
7.10.2014	3 903 496	20 000
8.10.2014	3 923 468	19 972
9.10.2014	3 943 413	19 945
10.10.2014	3 963 330	19 917
11.10.2014	3 983 220	19 890
12.10.2014	4 003 083	19 863
13.10.2014	4 022 918	19 835
14.10.2014	4 042 726	19 808
15.10.2014	4 062 507	19 781
16.10.2014	4 082 261	19 754
17.10.2014	4 101 987	19 727
18.10.2014	4 121 687	19 700
19.10.2014	4 141 359	19 672
20.10.2014	4 161 005	19 645
21.10.2014	4 180 623	19 618
22.10.2014	4 200 215	19 592
23.10.2014	4 219 780	19 565
24.10.2014	4 239 317	19 538
25.10.2014	4 258 828	19 511
26.10.2014	4 278 312	19 484
27.10.2014	4 297 770	19 457
28.10.2014	4 317 200	19 431
29.10.2014	4 336 604	19 404
30.10.2014	4 355 982	19 377
31.10.2014	4 375 332	19 351
1.11.2014	4 394 657	19 324
2.11.2014	4 413 954	19 298
3.11.2014	4 433 225	19 271
4.11.2014	4 452 470	19 245
5.11.2014	4 471 688	19 218
6.11.2014	4 490 880	19 192
7.11.2014	4 510 045	19 165
8.11.2014	4 529 185	19 139
9.11.2014	4 548 297	19 113
10.11.2014	4 567 384	19 087
11.11.2014	4 586 444	19 060
12.11.2014	4 605 479	19 034
13.11.2014	4 624 487	19 008
14.11.2014	4 643 469	18 982
15.11.2014	4 662 425	18 956
16.11.2014	4 681 355	18 930
17.11.2014	4 700 258	18 904
18.11.2014	4 719 136	18 878
19.11.2014	4 737 988	18 852
20.11.2014	4 756 814	18 826
21.11.2014	4 775 615	18 800
22.11.2014	4 794 389	18 774
23.11.2014	4 813 138	18 749
24.11.2014	4 831 861	18 723
25.11.2014	4 850 558	18 697
26.11.2014	4 869 229	18 672
27.11.2014	4 887 875	18 646
28.11.2014	4 906 496	18 620
29.11.2014	4 925 090	18 595
30.11.2014	4 943 659	18 569
1.12.2014	4 962 203	18 544
2.12.2014	4 980 721	18 518
3.12.2014	4 999 214	18 493
4.12.2014	5 017 681	18 467
5.12.2014	5 036 123	18 442
6.12.2014	5 054 540	18 417
7.12.2014	5 072 932	18 391
8.12.2014	5 091 298	18 366
9.12.2014	5 109 639	18 341
10.12.2014	5 127 954	18 316
11.12.2014	5 146 245	18 291
12.12.2014	5 164 510	18 265
13.12.2014	5 182 751	18 240
14.12.2014	5 200 966	18 215
15.12.2014	5 219 156	18 190
16.12.2014	5 237 322	18 165
17.12.2014	5 255 462	18 140
18.12.2014	5 273 578	18 115
19.12.2014	5 291 668	18 091
20.12.2014	5 309 734	18 066
21.12.2014	5 327 775	18 041
22.12.2014	5 345 791	18 016
23.12.2014	5 363 782	17 991
24.12.2014	5 381 749	17 967
25.12.2014	5 399 691	17 942
26.12.2014	5 417 609	17 917
27.12.2014	5 435 501	17 893
28.12.2014	5 453 370	17 868
29.12.2014	5 471 213	17 844
30.12.2014	5 489 032	17 819
31.12.2014	5 506 827	17 795
1.1.2015	5 524 597	17 770
2.1.2015	5 542 343	17 746
3.1.2015	5 560 065	17 721
4.1.2015	5 577 762	17 697
5.1.2015	5 595 435	17 673
6.1.2015	5 613 083	17 649
7.1.2015	5 630 708	17 624
8.1.2015	5 648 308	17 600
9.1.2015	5 665 884	17 576
10.1.2015	5 683 436	17 552
11.1.2015	5 700 963	17 528
12.1.2015	5 718 467	17 504
13.1.2015	5 735 947	17 480
14.1.2015	5 753 402	17 456
15.1.2015	5 770 834	17 432
16.1.2015	5 788 242	17 408
17.1.2015	5 805 626	17 384
18.1.2015	5 822 985	17 360
19.1.2015	5 840 322	17 336
20.1.2015	5 857 634	17 312
21.1.2015	5 874 922	17 289
22.1.2015	5 892 187	17 265
23.1.2015	5 909 428	17 241
24.1.2015	5 926 646	17 217
25.1.2015	5 943 839	17 194
26.1.2015	5 961 009	17 170
27.1.2015	5 978 156	17 147
28.1.2015	5 995 279	17 123
29.1.2015	6 012 378	17 099
30.1.2015	6 029 454	17 076
31.1.2015	6 046 507	17 053
1.2.2015	6 063 536	17 029
2.2.2015	6 080 542	17 006
3.2.2015	6 097 524	16 982
4.2.2015	6 114 483	16 959
5.2.2015	6 131 419	16 936
6.2.2015	6 148 332	16 913
7.2.2015	6 165 221	16 889
8.2.2015	6 182 087	16 866
9.2.2015	6 198 930	16 843
10.2.2015	6 215 750	16 820
11.2.2015	6 232 547	16 797
12.2.2015	6 249 320	16 774
13.2.2015	6 266 071	16 751
14.2.2015	6 282 798	16 728
15.2.2015	6 299 503	16 705
16.2.2015	6 316 185	16 682
17.2.2015	6 332 844	16 659
18.2.2015	6 349 479	16 636
19.2.2015	6 366 093	16 613
20.2.2015	6 382 683	16 590
21.2.2015	6 399 250	16 567
22.2.2015	6 415 795	16 545
23.2.2015	6 432 317	16 522
24.2.2015	6 448 816	16 499
25.2.2015	6 465 293	16 477
26.2.2015	6 481 747	16 454
27.2.2015	6 498 178	16 431
28.2.2015	6 514 587	16 409
1.3.2015	6 530 974	16 386
2.3.2015	6 547 337	16 364
3.3.2015	6 563 679	16 341
4.3.2015	6 579 998	16 319
5.3.2015	6 596 294	16 296
6.3.2015	6 612 568	16 274
7.3.2015	6 628 820	16 252
8.3.2015	6 645 049	16 229
9.3.2015	6 661 257	16 207
10.3.2015	6 677 442	16 185
11.3.2015	6 693 604	16 163
12.3.2015	6 709 745	16 140
13.3.2015	6 725 863	16 118
14.3.2015	6 741 959	16 096
15.3.2015	6 758 033	16 074
16.3.2015	6 774 085	16 052
17.3.2015	6 790 115	16 030
18.3.2015	6 806 123	16 008
19.3.2015	6 822 109	15 986
20.3.2015	6 838 073	15 964
21.3.2015	6 854 015	15 942
22.3.2015	6 869 935	15 920
23.3.2015	6 885 834	15 898
24.3.2015	6 901 710	15 876
25.3.2015	6 917 565	15 855
26.3.2015	6 933 398	15 833
27.3.2015	6 949 209	15 811
28.3.2015	6 964 998	15 789
29.3.2015	6 980 766	15 768
30.3.2015	6 996 512	15 746
31.3.2015	7 012 237	15 725
1.4.2015	7 027 940	15 703
2.4.2015	7 043 621	15 681
3.4.2015	7 059 281	15 660
4.4.2015	7 074 919	15 638
5.4.2015	7 090 536	15 617
6.4.2015	7 106 131	15 595
7.4.2015	7 121 705	15 574
8.4.2015	7 137 258	15 553
9.4.2015	7 152 789	15 531
10.4.2015	7 168 299	15 510
11.4.2015	7 183 788	15 489
12.4.2015	7 199 255	15 467
13.4.2015	7 214 701	15 446
14.4.2015	7 230 126	15 425
15.4.2015	7 245 530	15 404
16.4.2015	7 260 912	15 383
17.4.2015	7 276 274	15 361
18.4.2015	7 291 614	15 340
19.4.2015	7 306 933	15 319
20.4.2015	7 322 231	15 298
21.4.2015	7 337 508	15 277
22.4.2015	7 352 765	15 256
23.4.2015	7 368 000	15 235
24.4.2015	7 383 214	15 214
25.4.2015	7 398 408	15 193
26.4.2015	7 413 580	15 173
27.4.2015	7 428 732	15 152
28.4.2015	7 443 863	15 131
29.4.2015	7 458 973	15 110
30.4.2015	7 474 063	15 089
1.5.2015	7 489 131	15 069
2.5.2015	7 504 179	15 048
3.5.2015	7 519 207	15 027
4.5.2015	7 534 213	15 007
5.5.2015	7 549 199	14 986
6.5.2015	7 564 165	14 966
7.5.2015	7 579 110	14 945
8.5.2015	7 594 034	14 924
9.5.2015	7 608 938	14 904
10.5.2015	7 623 822	14 883
11.5.2015	7 638 685	14 863
12.5.2015	7 653 527	14 843
13.5.2015	7 668 349	14 822
14.5.2015	7 683 151	14 802
15.5.2015	7 697 933	14 782
16.5.2015	7 712 694	14 761
17.5.2015	7 727 435	14 741
18.5.2015	7 742 156	14 721
19.5.2015	7 756 856	14 701
20.5.2015	7 771 537	14 680
21.5.2015	7 786 197	14 660
22.5.2015	7 800 837	14 640
23.5.2015	7 815 457	14 620
24.5.2015	7 830 057	14 600
25.5.2015	7 844 636	14 580
26.5.2015	7 859 196	14 560
27.5.2015	7 873 736	14 540
28.5.2015	7 888 256	14 520
29.5.2015	7 902 756	14 500
30.5.2015	7 917 236	14 480
31.5.2015	7 931 696	14 460
1.6.2015	7 946 136	14 440
2.6.2015	7 960 556	14 420
3.6.2015	7 974 957	14 401
4.6.2015	7 989 338	14 381
5.6.2015	8 003 699	14 361
6.6.2015	8 018 040	14 341
7.6.2015	8 032 362	14 322
8.6.2015	8 046 664	14 302
9.6.2015	8 060 946	14 282
10.6.2015	8 075 209	14 263
11.6.2015	8 089 452	14 243
12.6.2015	8 103 676	14 224
13.6.2015	8 117 880	14 204
14.6.2015	8 132 064	14 185
15.6.2015	8 146 229	14 165
16.6.2015	8 160 375	14 146
17.6.2015	8 174 501	14 126
18.6.2015	8 188 608	14 107
19.6.2015	8 202 695	14 087
20.6.2015	8 216 763	14 068
21.6.2015	8 230 812	14 049
22.6.2015	8 244 841	14 029
23.6.2015	8 258 852	14 010
24.6.2015	8 272 843	13 991
25.6.2015	8 286 814	13 972
26.6.2015	8 300 767	13 953
27.6.2015	8 314 700	13 933
28.6.2015	8 328 614	13 914
29.6.2015	8 342 510	13 895
30.6.2015	8 356 386	13 876
1.7.2015	8 370 243	13 857
2.7.2015	8 384 081	13 838
3.7.2015	8 397 900	13 819
4.7.2015	8 411 700	13 800
5.7.2015	8 425 481	13 781
6.7.2015	8 439 243	13 762
7.7.2015	8 452 986	13 743
8.7.2015	8 466 710	13 724
9.7.2015	8 480 416	13 705
10.7.2015	8 494 102	13 687
11.7.2015	8 507 770	13 668
12.7.2015	8 521 419	13 649
13.7.2015	8 535 050	13 630
14.7.2015	8 548 661	13 612
15.7.2015	8 562 254	13 593
16.7.2015	8 575 829	13 574
17.7.2015	8 589 384	13 556
18.7.2015	8 602 921	13 537
19.7.2015	8 616 440	13 518
20.7.2015	8 629 940	13 500
21.7.2015	8 643 421	13 481
22.7.2015	8 656 884	13 463
23.7.2015	8 670 328	13 444
24.7.2015	8 683 754	13 426
25.7.2015	8 697 161	13 407
26.7.2015	8 710 550	13 389
27.7.2015	8 723 921	13 371
28.7.2015	8 737 273	13 352
29.7.2015	8 750 607	13 334
30.7.2015	8 763 923	13 316
31.7.2015	8 777 220	13 297
1.8.2015	8 790 499	13 279
2.8.2015	8 803 760	13 261
3.8.2015	8 817 003	13 243
4.8.2015	8 830 227	13 224
5.8.2015	8 843 433	13 206
6.8.2015	8 856 621	13 188
7.8.2015	8 869 792	13 170
8.8.2015	8 882 943	13 152
9.8.2015	8 896 077	13 134
10.8.2015	8 909 193	13 116
11.8.2015	8 922 291	13 098
12.8.2015	8 935 371	13 080
13.8.2015	8 948 433	13 062
14.8.2015	8 961 477	13 044
15.8.2015	8 974 503	13 026
16.8.2015	8 987 511	13 008
17.8.2015	9 000 501	12 990
18.8.2015	9 013 474	12 972
19.8.2015	9 026 428	12 955
20.8.2015	9 039 365	12 937
21.8.2015	9 052 284	12 919
22.8.2015	9 065 185	12 901
23.8.2015	9 078 069	12 884
24.8.2015	9 090 935	12 866
25.8.2015	9 103 783	12 848
26.8.2015	9 116 614	12 831
27.8.2015	9 129 427	12 813
28.8.2015	9 142 222	12 795
29.8.2015	9 155 000	12 778
30.8.2015	9 167 760	12 760
31.8.2015	9 180 503	12 743
1.9.2015	9 193 228	12 725
2.9.2015	9 205 936	12 708
3.9.2015	9 218 626	12 690
4.9.2015	9 231 299	12 673
5.9.2015	9 243 955	12 655
6.9.2015	9 256 593	12 638
7.9.2015	9 269 214	12 621
8.9.2015	9 281 817	12 603
9.9.2015	9 294 403	12 586
10.9.2015	9 306 972	12 569
11.9.2015	9 319 524	12 552
12.9.2015	9 332 058	12 534
13.9.2015	9 344 575	12 517
14.9.2015	9 357 075	12 500
15.9.2015	9 369 558	12 483
16.9.2015	9 382 023	12 466
17.9.2015	9 394 472	12 448
18.9.2015	9 406 903	12 431
19.9.2015	9 419 318	12 414
20.9.2015	9 431 715	12 397
21.9.2015	9 444 095	12 380
22.9.2015	9 456 458	12 363
23.9.2015	9 468 805	12 346
24.9.2015	9 481 134	12 329
25.9.2015	9 493 446	12 312
26.9.2015	9 505 742	12 295
27.9.2015	9 518 020	12 279
28.9.2015	9 530 282	12 262
29.9.2015	9 542 527	12 245
30.9.2015	9 554 755	12 228
1.10.2015	9 566 966	12 211
2.10.2015	9 579 161	12 195
3.10.2015	9 591 339	12 178
4.10.2015	9 603 500	12 161
5.10.2015	9 615 644	12 144
6.10.2015	9 627 772	12 128
7.10.2015	9 639 883	12 111
8.10.2015	9 651 977	12 094
9.10.2015	9 664 055	12 078
10.10.2015	9 676 116	12 061
11.10.2015	9 688 161	12 045
12.10.2015	9 700 189	12 028
13.10.2015	9 712 200	12 012
14.10.2015	9 724 195	11 995
15.10.2015	9 736 174	11 979
16.10.2015	9 748 136	11 962
17.10.2015	9 760 082	11 946
18.10.2015	9 772 011	11 929
19.10.2015	9 783 924	11 913
20.10.2015	9 795 821	11 897
21.10.2015	9 807 701	11 880
22.10.2015	9 819 565	11 864
23.10.2015	9 831 413	11 848
24.10.2015	9 843 244	11 831
25.10.2015	9 855 059	11 815
26.10.2015	9 866 858	11 799
27.10.2015	9 878 641	11 783
28.10.2015	9 890 407	11 766
29.10.2015	9 902 157	11 750
30.10.2015	9 913 892	11 734
31.10.2015	9 925 610	11 718
1.11.2015	9 937 312	11 702
2.11.2015	9 948 998	11 686
3.11.2015	9 960 667	11 670
4.11.2015	9 972 321	11 654
5.11.2015	9 983 959	11 638
6.11.2015	9 995 581	11 622
7.11.2015	10 007 187	11 606
8.11.2015	10 018 777	11 590
9.11.2015	10 030 351	11 574
10.11.2015	10 041 909	11 558
11.11.2015	10 053 451	11 542
12.11.2015	10 064 978	11 526
13.11.2015	10 076 488	11 511
14.11.2015	10 087 983	11 495
15.11.2015	10 099 462	11 479
16.11.2015	10 110 926	11 463
17.11.2015	10 122 373	11 448
18.11.2015	10 133 805	11 432
19.11.2015	10 145 221	11 416
20.11.2015	10 156 621	11 400
21.11.2015	10 168 006	11 385
22.11.2015	10 179 375	11 369
23.11.2015	10 190 729	11 354
24.11.2015	10 202 067	11 338
25.11.2015	10 213 389	11 322
26.11.2015	10 224 696	11 307
27.11.2015	10 235 987	11 291
28.11.2015	10 247 263	11 276
29.11.2015	10 258 523	11 260
30.11.2015	10 269 768	11 245
1.12.2015	10 280 997	11 229
2.12.2015	10 292 211	11 214
3.12.2015	10 303 410	11 199
4.12.2015	10 314 593	11 183
5.12.2015	10 325 761	11 168
6.12.2015	10 336 913	11 152
7.12.2015	10 348 050	11 137
8.12.2015	10 359 172	11 122
9.12.2015	10 370 279	11 107
10.12.2015	10 381 370	11 091
11.12.2015	10 392 446	11 076
12.12.2015	10 403 507	11 061
13.12.2015	10 414 553	11 046
14.12.2015	10 425 583	11 031
15.12.2015	10 436 599	11 015
16.12.2015	10 447 599	11 000
17.12.2015	10 458 584	10 985
18.12.2015	10 469 554	10 970
19.12.2015	10 480 509	10 955
20.12.2015	10 491 449	10 940
21.12.2015	10 502 374	10 925
22.12.2015	10 513 284	10 910
23.12.2015	10 524 179	10 895
24.12.2015	10 535 059	10 880
25.12.2015	10 545 924	10 865
26.12.2015	10 556 774	10 850
27.12.2015	10 567 609	10 835
28.12.2015	10 578 430	10 820
29.12.2015	10 589 235	10 805
30.12.2015	10 600 026	10 791
31.12.2015	10 610 802	10 776
1.1.2016	10 621 563	10 761
2.1.2016	10 632 309	10 746
3.1.2016	10 643 040	10 731
4.1.2016	10 653 757	10 717
5.1.2016	10 664 459	10 702
6.1.2016	10 675 147	10 687
7.1.2016	10 685 819	10 673
8.1.2016	10 696 477	10 658
9.1.2016	10 707 121	10 643
10.1.2016	10 717 749	10 629
11.1.2016	10 728 364	10 614
12.1.2016	10 738 963	10 600
13.1.2016	10 749 548	10 585
14.1.2016	10 760 119	10 570
15.1.2016	10 770 675	10 556
16.1.2016	10 781 216	10 541
17.1.2016	10 791 743	10 527
18.1.2016	10 802 256	10 513
19.1.2016	10 812 754	10 498
20.1.2016	10 823 237	10 484
21.1.2016	10 833 707	10 469
22.1.2016	10 844 162	10 455
23.1.2016	10 854 602	10 441
24.1.2016	10 865 028	10 426
25.1.2016	10 875 440	10 412
26.1.2016	10 885 838	10 398
27.1.2016	10 896 221	10 383
28.1.2016	10 906 590	10 369
29.1.2016	10 916 945	10 355
30.1.2016	10 927 286	10 341
31.1.2016	10 937 612	10 326
1.2.2016	10 947 924	10 312
2.2.2016	10 958 222	10 298
3.2.2016	10 968 506	10 284
4.2.2016	10 978 776	10 270
5.2.2016	10 989 032	10 256
6.2.2016	10 999 273	10 242
7.2.2016	11 009 501	10 228
8.2.2016	11 019 714	10 213
9.2.2016	11 029 914	10 199
10.2.2016	11 040 099	10 185
11.2.2016	11 050 271	10 171
12.2.2016	11 060 428	10 158
13.2.2016	11 070 572	10 144
14.2.2016	11 080 702	10 130
15.2.2016	11 090 817	10 116
16.2.2016	11 100 919	10 102
17.2.2016	11 111 007	10 088
18.2.2016	11 121 081	10 074
19.2.2016	11 131 141	10 060
20.2.2016	11 141 188	10 046
21.2.2016	11 151 221	10 033
22.2.2016	11 161 239	10 019
23.2.2016	11 171 245	10 005
24.2.2016	11 181 236	9 991
25.2.2016	11 191 214	9 978
26.2.2016	11 201 178	9 964
27.2.2016	11 211 128	9 950
28.2.2016	11 221 064	9 937
29.2.2016	11 230 987	9 923
1.3.2016	11 240 897	9 909
2.3.2016	11 250 792	9 896
3.3.2016	11 260 675	9 882
4.3.2016	11 270 543	9 869
5.3.2016	11 280 398	9 855
6.3.2016	11 290 240	9 841
7.3.2016	11 300 068	9 828
8.3.2016	11 309 882	9 814
9.3.2016	11 319 683	9 801
10.3.2016	11 329 471	9 788
11.3.2016	11 339 245	9 774
12.3.2016	11 349 005	9 761
13.3.2016	11 358 753	9 747
14.3.2016	11 368 487	9 734
15.3.2016	11 378 207	9 721
16.3.2016	11 387 914	9 707
17.3.2016	11 397 608	9 694
18.3.2016	11 407 289	9 681
19.3.2016	11 416 956	9 667
20.3.2016	11 426 610	9 654
21.3.2016	11 436 250	9 641
22.3.2016	11 445 878	9 627
23.3.2016	11 455 492	9 614
24.3.2016	11 465 093	9 601
25.3.2016	11 474 681	9 588
26.3.2016	11 484 256	9 575
27.3.2016	11 493 817	9 562
28.3.2016	11 503 365	9 548
29.3.2016	11 512 901	9 535
30.3.2016	11 522 423	9 522
31.3.2016	11 531 932	9 509
1.4.2016	11 541 428	9 496
2.4.2016	11 550 911	9 483
3.4.2016	11 560 381	9 470
4.4.2016	11 569 838	9 457
5.4.2016	11 579 282	9 444
6.4.2016	11 588 713	9 431
7.4.2016	11 598 131	9 418
8.4.2016	11 607 536	9 405
9.4.2016	11 616 929	9 392
10.4.2016	11 626 308	9 379
11.4.2016	11 635 674	9 366
12.4.2016	11 645 028	9 354
13.4.2016	11 654 369	9 341
14.4.2016	11 663 697	9 328
15.4.2016	11 673 012	9 315
16.4.2016	11 682 314	9 302
17.4.2016	11 691 603	9 290
18.4.2016	11 700 880	9 277
19.4.2016	11 710 144	9 264
20.4.2016	11 719 396	9 251
21.4.2016	11 728 634	9 239
22.4.2016	11 737 860	9 226
23.4.2016	11 747 073	9 213
24.4.2016	11 756 274	9 201
25.4.2016	11 765 462	9 188
26.4.2016	11 774 637	9 175
27.4.2016	11 783 800	9 163
28.4.2016	11 792 950	9 150
29.4.2016	11 802 088	9 138
30.4.2016	11 811 213	9 125
1.5.2016	11 820 325	9 113
2.5.2016	11 829 425	9 100
3.5.2016	11 838 513	9 088
4.5.2016	11 847 588	9 075
5.5.2016	11 856 650	9 063
6.5.2016	11 865 701	9 050
7.5.2016	11 874 738	9 038
8.5.2016	11 883 763	9 025
9.5.2016	11 892 776	9 013
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11.5.2016	11 910 765	8 988
12.5.2016	11 919 741	8 976
13.5.2016	11 928 704	8 963
14.5.2016	11 937 655	8 951
15.5.2016	11 946 594	8 939
16.5.2016	11 955 521	8 927
17.5.2016	11 964 435	8 914
18.5.2016	11 973 337	8 902
19.5.2016	11 982 227	8 890
20.5.2016	11 991 105	8 878
21.5.2016	11 999 970	8 865
22.5.2016	12 008 824	8 853
23.5.2016	12 017 665	8 841
24.5.2016	12 026 494	8 829
25.5.2016	12 035 311	8 817
26.5.2016	12 044 115	8 805
27.5.2016	12 052 908	8 793
28.5.2016	12 061 689	8 781
29.5.2016	12 070 457	8 769
30.5.2016	12 079 214	8 756
31.5.2016	12 087 958	8 744
1.6.2016	12 096 691	8 732
2.6.2016	12 105 411	8 720
3.6.2016	12 114 120	8 708
4.6.2016	12 122 816	8 697
5.6.2016	12 131 501	8 685
6.6.2016	12 140 173	8 673
7.6.2016	12 148 834	8 661
8.6.2016	12 157 483	8 649
9.6.2016	12 166 120	8 637
10.6.2016	12 174 745	8 625
11.6.2016	12 183 358	8 613
12.6.2016	12 191 960	8 601
13.6.2016	12 200 550	8 590
14.6.2016	12 209 127	8 578
15.6.2016	12 217 693	8 566
16.6.2016	12 226 248	8 554
17.6.2016	12 234 790	8 543
18.6.2016	12 243 321	8 531
19.6.2016	12 251 840	8 519
20.6.2016	12 260 348	8 507
21.6.2016	12 268 843	8 496
22.6.2016	12 277 327	8 484
23.6.2016	12 285 800	8 472
24.6.2016	12 294 261	8 461
25.6.2016	12 302 710	8 449
26.6.2016	12 311 147	8 438
27.6.2016	12 319 573	8 426
28.6.2016	12 327 988	8 414
29.6.2016	12 336 390	8 403
30.6.2016	12 344 782	8 391
1.7.2016	12 353 162	8 380
2.7.2016	12 361 530	8 368
3.7.2016	12 369 887	8 357
4.7.2016	12 378 232	8 345
5.7.2016	12 386 566	8 334
6.7.2016	12 394 888	8 322
7.7.2016	12 403 199	8 311
8.7.2016	12 411 499	8 300
9.7.2016	12 419 787	8 288
10.7.2016	12 428 064	8 277
11.7.2016	12 436 329	8 265
12.7.2016	12 444 583	8 254
13.7.2016	12 452 826	8 243
14.7.2016	12 461 057	8 231
15.7.2016	12 469 277	8 220
16.7.2016	12 477 486	8 209
17.7.2016	12 485 683	8 198
18.7.2016	12 493 870	8 186
19.7.2016	12 502 045	8 175
20.7.2016	12 510 209	8 164
21.7.2016	12 518 361	8 153
22.7.2016	12 526 503	8 141
23.7.2016	12 534 633	8 130
24.7.2016	12 542 752	8 119
25.7.2016	12 550 860	8 108
26.7.2016	12 558 957	8 097
27.7.2016	12 567 042	8 086
28.7.2016	12 575 117	8 075
29.7.2016	12 583 180	8 063
30.7.2016	12 591 233	8 052
31.7.2016	12 599 274	8 041
1.8.2016	12 607 304	8 030
2.8.2016	12 615 323	8 019
3.8.2016	12 623 332	8 008
4.8.2016	12 631 329	7 997
5.8.2016	12 639 315	7 986
6.8.2016	12 647 290	7 975
7.8.2016	12 655 255	7 964
8.8.2016	12 663 208	7 953
9.8.2016	12 671 151	7 942
10.8.2016	12 679 082	7 932
11.8.2016	12 687 003	7 921
12.8.2016	12 694 913	7 910
13.8.2016	12 702 812	7 899
14.8.2016	12 710 700	7 888
15.8.2016	12 718 577	7 877
16.8.2016	12 726 443	7 866
17.8.2016	12 734 299	7 856
18.8.2016	12 742 144	7 845
19.8.2016	12 749 978	7 834
20.8.2016	12 757 801	7 823
21.8.2016	12 765 614	7 813
22.8.2016	12 773 416	7 802
23.8.2016	12 781 207	7 791
24.8.2016	12 788 987	7 780
25.8.2016	12 796 757	7 770
26.8.2016	12 804 516	7 759
27.8.2016	12 812 264	7 748
28.8.2016	12 820 002	7 738
29.8.2016	12 827 729	7 727
30.8.2016	12 835 446	7 717
31.8.2016	12 843 152	7 706
1.9.2016	12 850 847	7 695
2.9.2016	12 858 532	7 685
3.9.2016	12 866 206	7 674
4.9.2016	12 873 870	7 664
5.9.2016	12 881 523	7 653
6.9.2016	12 889 166	7 643
7.9.2016	12 896 798	7 632
8.9.2016	12 904 420	7 622
9.9.2016	12 912 031	7 611
10.9.2016	12 919 632	7 601
11.9.2016	12 927 222	7 590
12.9.2016	12 934 802	7 580
13.9.2016	12 942 371	7 570
14.9.2016	12 949 931	7 559
15.9.2016	12 957 479	7 549
16.9.2016	12 965 018	7 538
17.9.2016	12 972 546	7 528
18.9.2016	12 980 063	7 518
19.9.2016	12 987 571	7 507
20.9.2016	12 995 068	7 497
21.9.2016	13 002 554	7 487
22.9.2016	13 010 031	7 476
23.9.2016	13 017 497	7 466
24.9.2016	13 024 953	7 456
25.9.2016	13 032 399	7 446
26.9.2016	13 039 834	7 435
27.9.2016	13 047 259	7 425
28.9.2016	13 054 675	7 415
29.9.2016	13 062 079	7 405
30.9.2016	13 069 474	7 395
1.10.2016	13 076 859	7 385
2.10.2016	13 084 233	7 374
3.10.2016	13 091 597	7 364
4.10.2016	13 098 952	7 354
5.10.2016	13 106 296	7 344
6.10.2016	13 113 630	7 334
7.10.2016	13 120 954	7 324
8.10.2016	13 128 267	7 314
9.10.2016	13 135 571	7 304
10.10.2016	13 142 865	7 294
11.10.2016	13 150 149	7 284
12.10.2016	13 157 423	7 274
13.10.2016	13 164 686	7 264
14.10.2016	13 171 940	7 254
15.10.2016	13 179 184	7 244
16.10.2016	13 186 418	7 234
17.10.2016	13 193 642	7 224
18.10.2016	13 200 856	7 214
19.10.2016	13 208 060	7 204
20.10.2016	13 215 254	7 194
21.10.2016	13 222 439	7 184
22.10.2016	13 229 613	7 174
23.10.2016	13 236 778	7 165
24.10.2016	13 243 932	7 155
25.10.2016	13 251 077	7 145
26.10.2016	13 258 213	7 135
27.10.2016	13 265 338	7 125
28.10.2016	13 272 454	7 116
29.10.2016	13 279 559	7 106
30.10.2016	13 286 655	7 096
31.10.2016	13 293 742	7 086
1.11.2016	13 300 818	7 077
2.11.2016	13 307 885	7 067
3.11.2016	13 314 942	7 057
4.11.2016	13 321 990	7 047
5.11.2016	13 329 028	7 038
6.11.2016	13 336 056	7 028
7.11.2016	13 343 074	7 018
8.11.2016	13 350 083	7 009
9.11.2016	13 357 082	6 999
10.11.2016	13 364 072	6 990
11.11.2016	13 371 052	6 980
12.11.2016	13 378 022	6 970
13.11.2016	13 384 983	6 961
14.11.2016	13 391 934	6 951
15.11.2016	13 398 876	6 942
16.11.2016	13 405 808	6 932
17.11.2016	13 412 731	6 923
18.11.2016	13 419 644	6 913
19.11.2016	13 426 548	6 904
20.11.2016	13 433 442	6 894
21.11.2016	13 440 327	6 885
22.11.2016	13 447 202	6 875
23.11.2016	13 454 068	6 866
24.11.2016	13 460 924	6 856
25.11.2016	13 467 771	6 847
26.11.2016	13 474 609	6 838
27.11.2016	13 481 437	6 828
28.11.2016	13 488 256	6 819
29.11.2016	13 495 065	6 809
30.11.2016	13 501 865	6 800
1.12.2016	13 508 656	6 791
2.12.2016	13 515 437	6 781
3.12.2016	13 522 209	6 772
4.12.2016	13 528 972	6 763
5.12.2016	13 535 726	6 754
6.12.2016	13 542 470	6 744
7.12.2016	13 549 205	6 735
8.12.2016	13 555 931	6 726
9.12.2016	13 562 647	6 717
10.12.2016	13 569 355	6 707
11.12.2016	13 576 053	6 698
12.12.2016	13 582 742	6 689
13.12.2016	13 589 421	6 680
14.12.2016	13 596 092	6 671
15.12.2016	13 602 753	6 661
16.12.2016	13 609 405	6 652
17.12.2016	13 616 048	6 643
18.12.2016	13 622 682	6 634
19.12.2016	13 629 307	6 625
20.12.2016	13 635 923	6 616
21.12.2016	13 642 530	6 607
22.12.2016	13 649 127	6 598
23.12.2016	13 655 716	6 589
24.12.2016	13 662 295	6 579
25.12.2016	13 668 866	6 570
26.12.2016	13 675 427	6 561
27.12.2016	13 681 979	6 552
28.12.2016	13 688 523	6 543
29.12.2016	13 695 057	6 534
30.12.2016	13 701 583	6 525
31.12.2016	13 708 099	6 516
1.1.2017	13 714 607	6 508
2.1.2017	13 721 105	6 499
3.1.2017	13 727 595	6 490
4.1.2017	13 734 076	6 481
5.1.2017	13 740 548	6 472
6.1.2017	13 747 011	6 463
7.1.2017	13 753 465	6 454
8.1.2017	13 759 910	6 445
9.1.2017	13 766 346	6 436
10.1.2017	13 772 774	6 428
11.1.2017	13 779 193	6 419
12.1.2017	13 785 603	6 410
13.1.2017	13 792 004	6 401
14.1.2017	13 798 396	6 392
15.1.2017	13 804 780	6 384
16.1.2017	13 811 154	6 375
17.1.2017	13 817 520	6 366
18.1.2017	13 823 878	6 357
19.1.2017	13 830 226	6 349
20.1.2017	13 836 566	6 340
21.1.2017	13 842 897	6 331
22.1.2017	13 849 219	6 322
23.1.2017	13 855 533	6 314
24.1.2017	13 861 838	6 305
25.1.2017	13 868 135	6 296
26.1.2017	13 874 422	6 288
27.1.2017	13 880 702	6 279
28.1.2017	13 886 972	6 271
29.1.2017	13 893 234	6 262
30.1.2017	13 899 487	6 253
31.1.2017	13 905 732	6 245
1.2.2017	13 911 968	6 236
2.2.2017	13 918 196	6 228
3.2.2017	13 924 415	6 219
4.2.2017	13 930 625	6 210
5.2.2017	13 936 827	6 202
6.2.2017	13 943 021	6 193
7.2.2017	13 949 205	6 185
8.2.2017	13 955 382	6 176
9.2.2017	13 961 550	6 168
10.2.2017	13 967 709	6 159
11.2.2017	13 973 860	6 151
12.2.2017	13 980 003	6 143
13.2.2017	13 986 137	6 134
14.2.2017	13 992 263	6 126
15.2.2017	13 998 380	6 117
16.2.2017	14 004 489	6 109
17.2.2017	14 010 589	6 101
18.2.2017	14 016 682	6 092
19.2.2017	14 022 765	6 084
20.2.2017	14 028 841	6 075
21.2.2017	14 034 908	6 067
22.2.2017	14 040 967	6 059
23.2.2017	14 047 017	6 050
24.2.2017	14 053 059	6 042
25.2.2017	14 059 093	6 034
26.2.2017	14 065 118	6 026
27.2.2017	14 071 136	6 017
28.2.2017	14 077 145	6 009
1.3.2017	14 083 145	6 001
2.3.2017	14 089 138	5 992
3.3.2017	14 095 122	5 984
4.3.2017	14 101 098	5 976
5.3.2017	14 107 066	5 968
6.3.2017	14 113 026	5 960
7.3.2017	14 118 977	5 951
8.3.2017	14 124 920	5 943
9.3.2017	14 130 856	5 935
10.3.2017	14 136 782	5 927
11.3.2017	14 142 701	5 919
12.3.2017	14 148 612	5 911
13.3.2017	14 154 515	5 903
14.3.2017	14 160 409	5 894
15.3.2017	14 166 295	5 886
16.3.2017	14 172 174	5 878
17.3.2017	14 178 044	5 870
18.3.2017	14 183 906	5 862
19.3.2017	14 189 760	5 854
20.3.2017	14 195 606	5 846
21.3.2017	14 201 444	5 838
22.3.2017	14 207 274	5 830
23.3.2017	14 213 096	5 822
24.3.2017	14 218 910	5 814
25.3.2017	14 224 717	5 806
26.3.2017	14 230 515	5 798
27.3.2017	14 236 305	5 790
28.3.2017	14 242 087	5 782
29.3.2017	14 247 861	5 774
30.3.2017	14 253 627	5 766
31.3.2017	14 259 386	5 758
1.4.2017	14 265 136	5 750
2.4.2017	14 270 879	5 743
3.4.2017	14 276 613	5 735
4.4.2017	14 282 340	5 727
5.4.2017	14 288 059	5 719
6.4.2017	14 293 770	5 711
7.4.2017	14 299 474	5 703
8.4.2017	14 305 169	5 695
9.4.2017	14 310 857	5 688
10.4.2017	14 316 536	5 680
11.4.2017	14 322 208	5 672
12.4.2017	14 327 872	5 664
13.4.2017	14 333 529	5 656
14.4.2017	14 339 178	5 649
15.4.2017	14 344 818	5 641
16.4.2017	14 350 452	5 633
17.4.2017	14 356 077	5 625
18.4.2017	14 361 695	5 618
19.4.2017	14 367 305	5 610
20.4.2017	14 372 907	5 602
21.4.2017	14 378 501	5 595
22.4.2017	14 384 088	5 587
23.4.2017	14 389 667	5 579
24.4.2017	14 395 239	5 572
25.4.2017	14 400 803	5 564
26.4.2017	14 406 359	5 556
27.4.2017	14 411 908	5 549
28.4.2017	14 417 449	5 541
29.4.2017	14 422 982	5 533
30.4.2017	14 428 508	5 526
1.5.2017	14 434 026	5 518
2.5.2017	14 439 537	5 511
3.5.2017	14 445 040	5 503
4.5.2017	14 450 535	5 496
5.5.2017	14 456 023	5 488
6.5.2017	14 461 504	5 480
7.5.2017	14 466 977	5 473
8.5.2017	14 472 442	5 465
9.5.2017	14 477 900	5 458
10.5.2017	14 483 350	5 450
11.5.2017	14 488 793	5 443
12.5.2017	14 494 229	5 435
13.5.2017	14 499 657	5 428
14.5.2017	14 505 077	5 420
15.5.2017	14 510 490	5 413
16.5.2017	14 515 896	5 406
17.5.2017	14 521 294	5 398
18.5.2017	14 526 685	5 391
19.5.2017	14 532 068	5 383
20.5.2017	14 537 444	5 376
21.5.2017	14 542 813	5 369
22.5.2017	14 548 174	5 361
23.5.2017	14 553 528	5 354
24.5.2017	14 558 874	5 347
25.5.2017	14 564 214	5 339
26.5.2017	14 569 545	5 332
27.5.2017	14 574 870	5 325
28.5.2017	14 580 187	5 317
29.5.2017	14 585 497	5 310
30.5.2017	14 590 800	5 303
31.5.2017	14 596 095	5 295
1.6.2017	14 601 383	5 288
2.6.2017	14 606 664	5 281
3.6.2017	14 611 937	5 274
4.6.2017	14 617 204	5 266
5.6.2017	14 622 463	5 259
6.6.2017	14 627 715	5 252
7.6.2017	14 632 959	5 245
8.6.2017	14 638 197	5 237
9.6.2017	14 643 427	5 230
10.6.2017	14 648 650	5 223
11.6.2017	14 653 866	5 216
12.6.2017	14 659 075	5 209
13.6.2017	14 664 276	5 202
14.6.2017	14 669 471	5 194
15.6.2017	14 674 658	5 187
16.6.2017	14 679 838	5 180
17.6.2017	14 685 011	5 173
18.6.2017	14 690 177	5 166
19.6.2017	14 695 336	5 159
20.6.2017	14 700 488	5 152
21.6.2017	14 705 632	5 145
22.6.2017	14 710 770	5 138
23.6.2017	14 715 901	5 131
24.6.2017	14 721 024	5 124
25.6.2017	14 726 141	5 116
26.6.2017	14 731 250	5 109
27.6.2017	14 736 353	5 102
28.6.2017	14 741 448	5 095
29.6.2017	14 746 536	5 088
30.6.2017	14 751 618	5 081
1.7.2017	14 756 692	5 074
2.7.2017	14 761 760	5 068
3.7.2017	14 766 820	5 061
4.7.2017	14 771 874	5 054
5.7.2017	14 776 921	5 047
6.7.2017	14 781 960	5 040
7.7.2017	14 786 993	5 033
8.7.2017	14 792 019	5 026
9.7.2017	14 797 038	5 019
10.7.2017	14 802 050	5 012
11.7.2017	14 807 056	5 005
12.7.2017	14 812 054	4 998
13.7.2017	14 817 045	4 991
14.7.2017	14 822 030	4 985
15.7.2017	14 827 008	4 978
16.7.2017	14 831 979	4 971
17.7.2017	14 836 943	4 964
18.7.2017	14 841 900	4 957
19.7.2017	14 846 851	4 950
20.7.2017	14 851 794	4 944
21.7.2017	14 856 731	4 937
22.7.2017	14 861 661	4 930
23.7.2017	14 866 585	4 923
24.7.2017	14 871 501	4 917
25.7.2017	14 876 411	4 910
26.7.2017	14 881 314	4 903
27.7.2017	14 886 211	4 896
28.7.2017	14 891 100	4 890
29.7.2017	14 895 983	4 883
30.7.2017	14 900 860	4 876
31.7.2017	14 905 729	4 870
1.8.2017	14 910 592	4 863
2.8.2017	14 915 448	4 856
3.8.2017	14 920 298	4 849
4.8.2017	14 925 140	4 843
5.8.2017	14 929 977	4 836
6.8.2017	14 934 806	4 830
7.8.2017	14 939 629	4 823
8.8.2017	14 944 445	4 816
9.8.2017	14 949 255	4 810
10.8.2017	14 954 058	4 803
11.8.2017	14 958 855	4 796
12.8.2017	14 963 644	4 790
13.8.2017	14 968 428	4 783
14.8.2017	14 973 205	4 777
15.8.2017	14 977 975	4 770
16.8.2017	14 982 738	4 764
17.8.2017	14 987 495	4 757
18.8.2017	14 992 246	4 751
19.8.2017	14 996 990	4 744
20.8.2017	15 001 728	4 738
21.8.2017	15 006 459	4 731
22.8.2017	15 011 183	4 725
23.8.2017	15 015 901	4 718
24.8.2017	15 020 613	4 712
25.8.2017	15 025 318	4 705
26.8.2017	15 030 016	4 699
27.8.2017	15 034 708	4 692
28.8.2017	15 039 394	4 686
29.8.2017	15 044 073	4 679
30.8.2017	15 048 746	4 673
31.8.2017	15 053 413	4 666
1.9.2017	15 058 073	4 660
2.9.2017	15 062 726	4 654
3.9.2017	15 067 374	4 647
4.9.2017	15 072 015	4 641
5.9.2017	15 076 649	4 634
6.9.2017	15 081 277	4 628
7.9.2017	15 085 899	4 622
8.9.2017	15 090 514	4 615
9.9.2017	15 095 123	4 609
10.9.2017	15 099 726	4 603
11.9.2017	15 104 323	4 596
12.9.2017	15 108 913	4 590
13.9.2017	15 113 496	4 584
14.9.2017	15 118 074	4 578
15.9.2017	15 122 645	4 571
16.9.2017	15 127 210	4 565
17.9.2017	15 131 769	4 559
18.9.2017	15 136 321	4 552
19.9.2017	15 140 867	4 546
20.9.2017	15 145 407	4 540
21.9.2017	15 149 941	4 534
22.9.2017	15 154 469	4 527
23.9.2017	15 158 990	4 521
24.9.2017	15 163 505	4 515
25.9.2017	15 168 014	4 509
26.9.2017	15 172 516	4 503
27.9.2017	15 177 013	4 496
28.9.2017	15 181 503	4 490
29.9.2017	15 185 987	4 484
30.9.2017	15 190 465	4 478
1.10.2017	15 194 937	4 472
2.10.2017	15 199 403	4 466
3.10.2017	15 203 862	4 460
4.10.2017	15 208 316	4 453
5.10.2017	15 212 763	4 447
6.10.2017	15 217 204	4 441
7.10.2017	15 221 639	4 435
8.10.2017	15 226 068	4 429
9.10.2017	15 230 491	4 423
10.10.2017	15 234 908	4 417
11.10.2017	15 239 319	4 411
12.10.2017	15 243 724	4 405
13.10.2017	15 248 122	4 399
14.10.2017	15 252 515	4 393
15.10.2017	15 256 902	4 387
16.10.2017	15 261 282	4 381
17.10.2017	15 265 657	4 375
18.10.2017	15 270 025	4 369
19.10.2017	15 274 388	4 363
20.10.2017	15 278 744	4 357
21.10.2017	15 283 095	4 351
22.10.2017	15 287 440	4 345
23.10.2017	15 291 778	4 339
24.10.2017	15 296 111	4 333
25.10.2017	15 300 438	4 327
26.10.2017	15 304 758	4 321
27.10.2017	15 309 073	4 315
28.10.2017	15 313 382	4 309
29.10.2017	15 317 685	4 303
30.10.2017	15 321 982	4 297
31.10.2017	15 326 274	4 291
1.11.2017	15 330 559	4 285
2.11.2017	15 334 838	4 279
3.11.2017	15 339 112	4 274
4.11.2017	15 343 380	4 268
5.11.2017	15 347 641	4 262
6.11.2017	15 351 897	4 256
7.11.2017	15 356 147	4 250
8.11.2017	15 360 392	4 244
9.11.2017	15 364 630	4 238
10.11.2017	15 368 863	4 233
11.11.2017	15 373 090	4 227
12.11.2017	15 377 311	4 221
13.11.2017	15 381 526	4 215
14.11.2017	15 385 735	4 209
15.11.2017	15 389 939	4 204
16.11.2017	15 394 137	4 198
17.11.2017	15 398 329	4 192
18.11.2017	15 402 515	4 186
19.11.2017	15 406 696	4 181
20.11.2017	15 410 871	4 175
21.11.2017	15 415 040	4 169
22.11.2017	15 419 203	4 163
23.11.2017	15 423 361	4 158
24.11.2017	15 427 513	4 152
25.11.2017	15 431 659	4 146
26.11.2017	15 435 800	4 141
27.11.2017	15 439 935	4 135
28.11.2017	15 444 064	4 129
29.11.2017	15 448 188	4 124
30.11.2017	15 452 305	4 118
1.12.2017	15 456 418	4 112
2.12.2017	15 460 524	4 107
3.12.2017	15 464 625	4 101
4.12.2017	15 468 721	4 095
5.12.2017	15 472 810	4 090
6.12.2017	15 476 894	4 084
7.12.2017	15 480 973	4 078
8.12.2017	15 485 046	4 073
9.12.2017	15 489 113	4 067
10.12.2017	15 493 175	4 062
11.12.2017	15 497 231	4 056
12.12.2017	15 501 281	4 051
13.12.2017	15 505 326	4 045
14.12.2017	15 509 366	4 039
15.12.2017	15 513 400	4 034
16.12.2017	15 517 428	4 028
17.12.2017	15 521 451	4 023
18.12.2017	15 525 468	4 017
19.12.2017	15 529 480	4 012
20.12.2017	15 533 486	4 006
21.12.2017	15 537 487	4 001
22.12.2017	15 541 482	3 995
23.12.2017	15 545 472	3 990
24.12.2017	15 549 456	3 984
25.12.2017	15 553 435	3 979
26.12.2017	15 557 408	3 973
27.12.2017	15 561 376	3 968
28.12.2017	15 565 339	3 962
29.12.2017	15 569 296	3 957
30.12.2017	15 573 247	3 952
31.12.2017	15 577 193	3 946

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: IntroVert on July 30, 2014, 08:55:05 PM
Added daily inflation and average daily block mining reward per Risto's numbers. Truncated at 30.06.2017 to allow for maximum allowed message length.

Code:
date	       coins	          new	        inflation	avg reward
18.04.2014	 15,580 	         25,333 	162.60%	17.592361
19.04.2014	 40,891 	         25,311 	61.90%	17.577083
20.04.2014	 66,168 	         25,277 	38.20%	17.553472
21.04.2014	 91,410 	         25,242 	27.61%	17.529167
22.04.2014	 116,617 	         25,207 	21.62%	17.504861
23.04.2014	 141,790 	         25,173 	17.75%	17.481250
24.04.2014	 166,928 	         25,138 	15.06%	17.456944
25.04.2014	 192,031 	         25,104 	13.07%	17.433333
26.04.2014	 217,100 	         25,069 	11.55%	17.409028
27.04.2014	 242,135 	         25,035 	10.34%	17.385417
28.04.2014	 267,135 	         25,000 	9.36%	17.361111
29.04.2014	 292,101 	         24,966 	8.55%	17.337500
30.04.2014	 317,033 	         24,932 	7.86%	17.313889
01.05.2014	 341,930 	         24,897 	7.28%	17.289583
02.05.2014	 366,793 	         24,863 	6.78%	17.265972
03.05.2014	 391,622 	         24,829 	6.34%	17.242361
04.05.2014	 416,417 	         24,795 	5.95%	17.218750
05.05.2014	 441,178 	         24,761 	5.61%	17.195139
06.05.2014	 465,905 	         24,727 	5.31%	17.171528
07.05.2014	 490,598 	         24,693 	5.03%	17.147917
08.05.2014	 515,257 	         24,659 	4.79%	17.124306
09.05.2014	 539,882 	         24,625 	4.56%	17.100694
10.05.2014	 564,473 	         24,591 	4.36%	17.077083
11.05.2014	 589,031 	         24,558 	4.17%	17.054167
12.05.2014	 613,555 	         24,524 	4.00%	17.030556
13.05.2014	 638,045 	         24,490 	3.84%	17.006944
14.05.2014	 662,501 	         24,457 	3.69%	16.984028
15.05.2014	 686,924 	         24,423 	3.56%	16.960417
16.05.2014	 711,314 	         24,389 	3.43%	16.936806
17.05.2014	 735,670 	         24,356 	3.31%	16.913889
18.05.2014	 759,992 	         24,322 	3.20%	16.890278
19.05.2014	 784,281 	         24,289 	3.10%	16.867361
20.05.2014	 808,537 	         24,256 	3.00%	16.844444
21.05.2014	 832,759 	         24,222 	2.91%	16.820833
22.05.2014	 856,948 	         24,189 	2.82%	16.797917
23.05.2014	 881,104 	         24,156 	2.74%	16.775000
24.05.2014	 905,227 	         24,123 	2.66%	16.752083
25.05.2014	 929,317 	         24,090 	2.59%	16.729167
26.05.2014	 953,373 	         24,057 	2.52%	16.706250
27.05.2014	 977,397 	         24,023 	2.46%	16.682639
28.05.2014	 1,001,387 	 23,990 	2.40%	16.659722
29.05.2014	 1,025,345 	 23,958 	2.34%	16.637500
30.05.2014	 1,049,269 	 23,925 	2.28%	16.614583
31.05.2014	 1,073,161 	 23,892 	2.23%	16.591667
01.06.2014	 1,097,020 	 23,859 	2.17%	16.568750
02.06.2014	 1,120,846 	 23,826 	2.13%	16.545833
03.06.2014	 1,144,640 	 23,793 	2.08%	16.522917
04.06.2014	 1,168,401 	 23,761 	2.03%	16.500694
05.06.2014	 1,192,129 	 23,728 	1.99%	16.477778
06.06.2014	 1,215,824 	 23,696 	1.95%	16.455556
07.06.2014	 1,239,487 	 23,663 	1.91%	16.432639
08.06.2014	 1,263,118 	 23,631 	1.87%	16.410417
09.06.2014	 1,286,716 	 23,598 	1.83%	16.387500
10.06.2014	 1,310,282 	 23,566 	1.80%	16.365278
11.06.2014	 1,333,815 	 23,533 	1.76%	16.342361
12.06.2014	 1,357,316 	 23,501 	1.73%	16.320139
13.06.2014	 1,380,785 	 23,469 	1.70%	16.297917
14.06.2014	 1,404,222 	 23,437 	1.67%	16.275694
15.06.2014	 1,427,626 	 23,404 	1.64%	16.252778
16.06.2014	 1,450,998 	 23,372 	1.61%	16.230556
17.06.2014	 1,474,338 	 23,340 	1.58%	16.208333
18.06.2014	 1,497,646 	 23,308 	1.56%	16.186111
19.06.2014	 1,520,922 	 23,276 	1.53%	16.163889
20.06.2014	 1,544,166 	 23,244 	1.51%	16.141667
21.06.2014	 1,567,379 	 23,212 	1.48%	16.119444
22.06.2014	 1,590,559 	 23,180 	1.46%	16.097222
23.06.2014	 1,613,707 	 23,148 	1.43%	16.075000
24.06.2014	 1,636,824 	 23,117 	1.41%	16.053472
25.06.2014	 1,659,909 	 23,085 	1.39%	16.031250
26.06.2014	 1,682,962 	 23,053 	1.37%	16.009028
27.06.2014	 1,705,984 	 23,022 	1.35%	15.987500
28.06.2014	 1,728,974 	 22,990 	1.33%	15.965278
29.06.2014	 1,751,932 	 22,958 	1.31%	15.943056
30.06.2014	 1,774,859 	 22,927 	1.29%	15.921528
01.07.2014	 1,797,754 	 22,895 	1.27%	15.899306
02.07.2014	 1,820,618 	 22,864 	1.26%	15.877778
03.07.2014	 1,843,451 	 22,833 	1.24%	15.856250
04.07.2014	 1,866,252 	 22,801 	1.22%	15.834028
05.07.2014	 1,889,022 	 22,770 	1.21%	15.812500
06.07.2014	 1,911,760 	 22,739 	1.19%	15.790972
07.07.2014	 1,934,467 	 22,707 	1.17%	15.768750
08.07.2014	 1,957,144 	 22,676 	1.16%	15.747222
09.07.2014	 1,979,789 	 22,645 	1.14%	15.725694
10.07.2014	 2,002,403 	 22,614 	1.13%	15.704167
11.07.2014	 2,024,985 	 22,583 	1.12%	15.682639
12.07.2014	 2,047,537 	 22,552 	1.10%	15.661111
13.07.2014	 2,070,058 	 22,521 	1.09%	15.639583
14.07.2014	 2,092,548 	 22,490 	1.07%	15.618056
15.07.2014	 2,115,007 	 22,459 	1.06%	15.596528
16.07.2014	 2,137,435 	 22,428 	1.05%	15.575000
17.07.2014	 2,159,833 	 22,397 	1.04%	15.553472
18.07.2014	 2,182,199 	 22,367 	1.02%	15.532639
19.07.2014	 2,204,535 	 22,336 	1.01%	15.511111
20.07.2014	 2,226,841 	 22,305 	1.00%	15.489583
21.07.2014	 2,249,115 	 22,275 	0.99%	15.468750
22.07.2014	 2,271,359 	 22,244 	0.98%	15.447222
23.07.2014	 2,293,573 	 22,214 	0.97%	15.426389
24.07.2014	 2,315,756 	 22,183 	0.96%	15.404861
25.07.2014	 2,337,908 	 22,153 	0.95%	15.384028
26.07.2014	 2,368,839 	 22,122 	0.93%	15.362500
27.07.2014	 2,390,919 	 22,080 	0.92%	15.333333
28.07.2014	 2,412,968 	 22,049 	0.91%	15.311806
29.07.2014	 2,434,987 	 22,019 	0.90%	15.290972
30.07.2014	 2,456,976 	 21,989 	0.89%	15.270139
31.07.2014	 2,478,934 	 21,959 	0.89%	15.249306
01.08.2014	 2,500,863 	 21,928 	0.88%	15.227778
02.08.2014	 2,522,761 	 21,898 	0.87%	15.206944
03.08.2014	 2,544,629 	 21,868 	0.86%	15.186111
04.08.2014	 2,566,468 	 21,838 	0.85%	15.165278
05.08.2014	 2,588,276 	 21,808 	0.84%	15.144444
06.08.2014	 2,610,054 	 21,778 	0.83%	15.123611
07.08.2014	 2,631,803 	 21,748 	0.83%	15.102778
08.08.2014	 2,653,521 	 21,719 	0.82%	15.082639
09.08.2014	 2,675,210 	 21,689 	0.81%	15.061806
10.08.2014	 2,696,869 	 21,659 	0.80%	15.040972
11.08.2014	 2,718,498 	 21,629 	0.80%	15.020139
12.08.2014	 2,740,097 	 21,599 	0.79%	14.999306
13.08.2014	 2,761,667 	 21,570 	0.78%	14.979167
14.08.2014	 2,783,207 	 21,540 	0.77%	14.958333
15.08.2014	 2,804,718 	 21,511 	0.77%	14.938194
16.08.2014	 2,826,199 	 21,481 	0.76%	14.917361
17.08.2014	 2,847,651 	 21,452 	0.75%	14.897222
18.08.2014	 2,869,073 	 21,422 	0.75%	14.876389
19.08.2014	 2,890,465 	 21,393 	0.74%	14.856250
20.08.2014	 2,911,829 	 21,363 	0.73%	14.835417
21.08.2014	 2,933,163 	 21,334 	0.73%	14.815278
22.08.2014	 2,954,467 	 21,305 	0.72%	14.795139
23.08.2014	 2,975,743 	 21,275 	0.71%	14.774306
24.08.2014	 2,996,989 	 21,246 	0.71%	14.754167
25.08.2014	 3,018,206 	 21,217 	0.70%	14.734028
26.08.2014	 3,039,394 	 21,188 	0.70%	14.713889
27.08.2014	 3,060,552 	 21,159 	0.69%	14.693750
28.08.2014	 3,081,682 	 21,130 	0.69%	14.673611
29.08.2014	 3,102,783 	 21,101 	0.68%	14.653472
30.08.2014	 3,123,855 	 21,072 	0.67%	14.633333
31.08.2014	 3,144,897 	 21,043 	0.67%	14.613194
01.09.2014	 3,165,911 	 21,014 	0.66%	14.593056
02.09.2014	 3,186,896 	 20,985 	0.66%	14.572917
03.09.2014	 3,207,853 	 20,956 	0.65%	14.552778
04.09.2014	 3,228,780 	 20,927 	0.65%	14.532639
05.09.2014	 3,249,679 	 20,899 	0.64%	14.513194
06.09.2014	 3,270,549 	 20,870 	0.64%	14.493056
07.09.2014	 3,291,390 	 20,841 	0.63%	14.472917
08.09.2014	 3,312,203 	 20,813 	0.63%	14.453472
09.09.2014	 3,332,987 	 20,784 	0.62%	14.433333
10.09.2014	 3,353,742 	 20,756 	0.62%	14.413889
11.09.2014	 3,374,469 	 20,727 	0.61%	14.393750
12.09.2014	 3,395,168 	 20,699 	0.61%	14.374306
13.09.2014	 3,415,838 	 20,670 	0.61%	14.354167
14.09.2014	 3,436,480 	 20,642 	0.60%	14.334722
15.09.2014	 3,457,094 	 20,613 	0.60%	14.314583
16.09.2014	 3,477,679 	 20,585 	0.59%	14.295139
17.09.2014	 3,498,236 	 20,557 	0.59%	14.275694
18.09.2014	 3,518,764 	 20,529 	0.58%	14.256250
19.09.2014	 3,539,265 	 20,500 	0.58%	14.236111
20.09.2014	 3,559,737 	 20,472 	0.58%	14.216667
21.09.2014	 3,580,181 	 20,444 	0.57%	14.197222
22.09.2014	 3,600,597 	 20,416 	0.57%	14.177778
23.09.2014	 3,620,985 	 20,388 	0.56%	14.158333
24.09.2014	 3,641,345 	 20,360 	0.56%	14.138889
25.09.2014	 3,661,678 	 20,332 	0.56%	14.119444
26.09.2014	 3,681,982 	 20,304 	0.55%	14.100000
27.09.2014	 3,702,258 	 20,276 	0.55%	14.080556
28.09.2014	 3,722,507 	 20,248 	0.54%	14.061111
29.09.2014	 3,742,727 	 20,221 	0.54%	14.042361
30.09.2014	 3,762,920 	 20,193 	0.54%	14.022917
01.10.2014	 3,783,085 	 20,165 	0.53%	14.003472
02.10.2014	 3,803,223 	 20,137 	0.53%	13.984028
03.10.2014	 3,823,333 	 20,110 	0.53%	13.965278
04.10.2014	 3,843,415 	 20,082 	0.52%	13.945833
05.10.2014	 3,863,469 	 20,055 	0.52%	13.927083
06.10.2014	 3,883,497 	 20,027 	0.52%	13.907639
07.10.2014	 3,903,496 	 20,000 	0.51%	13.888889
08.10.2014	 3,923,468 	 19,972 	0.51%	13.869444
09.10.2014	 3,943,413 	 19,945 	0.51%	13.850694
10.10.2014	 3,963,330 	 19,917 	0.50%	13.831250
11.10.2014	 3,983,220 	 19,890 	0.50%	13.812500
12.10.2014	 4,003,083 	 19,863 	0.50%	13.793750
13.10.2014	 4,022,918 	 19,835 	0.49%	13.774306
14.10.2014	 4,042,726 	 19,808 	0.49%	13.755556
15.10.2014	 4,062,507 	 19,781 	0.49%	13.736806
16.10.2014	 4,082,261 	 19,754 	0.48%	13.718056
17.10.2014	 4,101,987 	 19,727 	0.48%	13.699306
18.10.2014	 4,121,687 	 19,700 	0.48%	13.680556
19.10.2014	 4,141,359 	 19,672 	0.48%	13.661111
20.10.2014	 4,161,005 	 19,645 	0.47%	13.642361
21.10.2014	 4,180,623 	 19,618 	0.47%	13.623611
22.10.2014	 4,200,215 	 19,592 	0.47%	13.605556
23.10.2014	 4,219,780 	 19,565 	0.46%	13.586806
24.10.2014	 4,239,317 	 19,538 	0.46%	13.568056
25.10.2014	 4,258,828 	 19,511 	0.46%	13.549306
26.10.2014	 4,278,312 	 19,484 	0.46%	13.530556
27.10.2014	 4,297,770 	 19,457 	0.45%	13.511806
28.10.2014	 4,317,200 	 19,431 	0.45%	13.493750
29.10.2014	 4,336,604 	 19,404 	0.45%	13.475000
30.10.2014	 4,355,982 	 19,377 	0.44%	13.456250
31.10.2014	 4,375,332 	 19,351 	0.44%	13.438194
01.11.2014	 4,394,657 	 19,324 	0.44%	13.419444
02.11.2014	 4,413,954 	 19,298 	0.44%	13.401389
03.11.2014	 4,433,225 	 19,271 	0.43%	13.382639
04.11.2014	 4,452,470 	 19,245 	0.43%	13.364583
05.11.2014	 4,471,688 	 19,218 	0.43%	13.345833
06.11.2014	 4,490,880 	 19,192 	0.43%	13.327778
07.11.2014	 4,510,045 	 19,165 	0.42%	13.309028
08.11.2014	 4,529,185 	 19,139 	0.42%	13.290972
09.11.2014	 4,548,297 	 19,113 	0.42%	13.272917
10.11.2014	 4,567,384 	 19,087 	0.42%	13.254861
11.11.2014	 4,586,444 	 19,060 	0.42%	13.236111
12.11.2014	 4,605,479 	 19,034 	0.41%	13.218056
13.11.2014	 4,624,487 	 19,008 	0.41%	13.200000
14.11.2014	 4,643,469 	 18,982 	0.41%	13.181944
15.11.2014	 4,662,425 	 18,956 	0.41%	13.163889
16.11.2014	 4,681,355 	 18,930 	0.40%	13.145833
17.11.2014	 4,700,258 	 18,904 	0.40%	13.127778
18.11.2014	 4,719,136 	 18,878 	0.40%	13.109722
19.11.2014	 4,737,988 	 18,852 	0.40%	13.091667
20.11.2014	 4,756,814 	 18,826 	0.40%	13.073611
21.11.2014	 4,775,615 	 18,800 	0.39%	13.055556
22.11.2014	 4,794,389 	 18,774 	0.39%	13.037500
23.11.2014	 4,813,138 	 18,749 	0.39%	13.020139
24.11.2014	 4,831,861 	 18,723 	0.39%	13.002083
25.11.2014	 4,850,558 	 18,697 	0.39%	12.984028
26.11.2014	 4,869,229 	 18,672 	0.38%	12.966667
27.11.2014	 4,887,875 	 18,646 	0.38%	12.948611
28.11.2014	 4,906,496 	 18,620 	0.38%	12.930556
29.11.2014	 4,925,090 	 18,595 	0.38%	12.913194
30.11.2014	 4,943,659 	 18,569 	0.38%	12.895139
01.12.2014	 4,962,203 	 18,544 	0.37%	12.877778
02.12.2014	 4,980,721 	 18,518 	0.37%	12.859722
03.12.2014	 4,999,214 	 18,493 	0.37%	12.842361
04.12.2014	 5,017,681 	 18,467 	0.37%	12.824306
05.12.2014	 5,036,123 	 18,442 	0.37%	12.806944
06.12.2014	 5,054,540 	 18,417 	0.36%	12.789583
07.12.2014	 5,072,932 	 18,391 	0.36%	12.771528
08.12.2014	 5,091,298 	 18,366 	0.36%	12.754167
09.12.2014	 5,109,639 	 18,341 	0.36%	12.736806
10.12.2014	 5,127,954 	 18,316 	0.36%	12.719444
11.12.2014	 5,146,245 	 18,291 	0.36%	12.702083
12.12.2014	 5,164,510 	 18,265 	0.35%	12.684028
13.12.2014	 5,182,751 	 18,240 	0.35%	12.666667
14.12.2014	 5,200,966 	 18,215 	0.35%	12.649306
15.12.2014	 5,219,156 	 18,190 	0.35%	12.631944
16.12.2014	 5,237,322 	 18,165 	0.35%	12.614583
17.12.2014	 5,255,462 	 18,140 	0.35%	12.597222
18.12.2014	 5,273,578 	 18,115 	0.34%	12.579861
19.12.2014	 5,291,668 	 18,091 	0.34%	12.563194
20.12.2014	 5,309,734 	 18,066 	0.34%	12.545833
21.12.2014	 5,327,775 	 18,041 	0.34%	12.528472
22.12.2014	 5,345,791 	 18,016 	0.34%	12.511111
23.12.2014	 5,363,782 	 17,991 	0.34%	12.493750
24.12.2014	 5,381,749 	 17,967 	0.33%	12.477083
25.12.2014	 5,399,691 	 17,942 	0.33%	12.459722
26.12.2014	 5,417,609 	 17,917 	0.33%	12.442361
27.12.2014	 5,435,501 	 17,893 	0.33%	12.425694
28.12.2014	 5,453,370 	 17,868 	0.33%	12.408333
29.12.2014	 5,471,213 	 17,844 	0.33%	12.391667
30.12.2014	 5,489,032 	 17,819 	0.32%	12.374306
31.12.2014	 5,506,827 	 17,795 	0.32%	12.357639
01.01.2015	 5,524,597 	 17,770 	0.32%	12.340278
02.01.2015	 5,542,343 	 17,746 	0.32%	12.323611
03.01.2015	 5,560,065 	 17,721 	0.32%	12.306250
04.01.2015	 5,577,762 	 17,697 	0.32%	12.289583
05.01.2015	 5,595,435 	 17,673 	0.32%	12.272917
06.01.2015	 5,613,083 	 17,649 	0.31%	12.256250
07.01.2015	 5,630,708 	 17,624 	0.31%	12.238889
08.01.2015	 5,648,308 	 17,600 	0.31%	12.222222
09.01.2015	 5,665,884 	 17,576 	0.31%	12.205556
10.01.2015	 5,683,436 	 17,552 	0.31%	12.188889
11.01.2015	 5,700,963 	 17,528 	0.31%	12.172222
12.01.2015	 5,718,467 	 17,504 	0.31%	12.155556
13.01.2015	 5,735,947 	 17,480 	0.30%	12.138889
14.01.2015	 5,753,402 	 17,456 	0.30%	12.122222
15.01.2015	 5,770,834 	 17,432 	0.30%	12.105556
16.01.2015	 5,788,242 	 17,408 	0.30%	12.088889
17.01.2015	 5,805,626 	 17,384 	0.30%	12.072222
18.01.2015	 5,822,985 	 17,360 	0.30%	12.055556
19.01.2015	 5,840,322 	 17,336 	0.30%	12.038889
20.01.2015	 5,857,634 	 17,312 	0.30%	12.022222
21.01.2015	 5,874,922 	 17,289 	0.29%	12.006250
22.01.2015	 5,892,187 	 17,265 	0.29%	11.989583
23.01.2015	 5,909,428 	 17,241 	0.29%	11.972917
24.01.2015	 5,926,646 	 17,217 	0.29%	11.956250
25.01.2015	 5,943,839 	 17,194 	0.29%	11.940278
26.01.2015	 5,961,009 	 17,170 	0.29%	11.923611
27.01.2015	 5,978,156 	 17,147 	0.29%	11.907639
28.01.2015	 5,995,279 	 17,123 	0.29%	11.890972
29.01.2015	 6,012,378 	 17,099 	0.28%	11.874306
30.01.2015	 6,029,454 	 17,076 	0.28%	11.858333
31.01.2015	 6,046,507 	 17,053 	0.28%	11.842361
01.02.2015	 6,063,536 	 17,029 	0.28%	11.825694
02.02.2015	 6,080,542 	 17,006 	0.28%	11.809722
03.02.2015	 6,097,524 	 16,982 	0.28%	11.793056
04.02.2015	 6,114,483 	 16,959 	0.28%	11.777083
05.02.2015	 6,131,419 	 16,936 	0.28%	11.761111
06.02.2015	 6,148,332 	 16,913 	0.28%	11.745139
07.02.2015	 6,165,221 	 16,889 	0.27%	11.728472
08.02.2015	 6,182,087 	 16,866 	0.27%	11.712500
09.02.2015	 6,198,930 	 16,843 	0.27%	11.696528
10.02.2015	 6,215,750 	 16,820 	0.27%	11.680556
11.02.2015	 6,232,547 	 16,797 	0.27%	11.664583
12.02.2015	 6,249,320 	 16,774 	0.27%	11.648611
13.02.2015	 6,266,071 	 16,751 	0.27%	11.632639
14.02.2015	 6,282,798 	 16,728 	0.27%	11.616667
15.02.2015	 6,299,503 	 16,705 	0.27%	11.600694
16.02.2015	 6,316,185 	 16,682 	0.26%	11.584722
17.02.2015	 6,332,844 	 16,659 	0.26%	11.568750
18.02.2015	 6,349,479 	 16,636 	0.26%	11.552778
19.02.2015	 6,366,093 	 16,613 	0.26%	11.536806
20.02.2015	 6,382,683 	 16,590 	0.26%	11.520833
21.02.2015	 6,399,250 	 16,567 	0.26%	11.504861
22.02.2015	 6,415,795 	 16,545 	0.26%	11.489583
23.02.2015	 6,432,317 	 16,522 	0.26%	11.473611
24.02.2015	 6,448,816 	 16,499 	0.26%	11.457639
25.02.2015	 6,465,293 	 16,477 	0.25%	11.442361
26.02.2015	 6,481,747 	 16,454 	0.25%	11.426389
27.02.2015	 6,498,178 	 16,431 	0.25%	11.410417
28.02.2015	 6,514,587 	 16,409 	0.25%	11.395139
01.03.2015	 6,530,974 	 16,386 	0.25%	11.379167
02.03.2015	 6,547,337 	 16,364 	0.25%	11.363889
03.03.2015	 6,563,679 	 16,341 	0.25%	11.347917
04.03.2015	 6,579,998 	 16,319 	0.25%	11.332639
05.03.2015	 6,596,294 	 16,296 	0.25%	11.316667
06.03.2015	 6,612,568 	 16,274 	0.25%	11.301389
07.03.2015	 6,628,820 	 16,252 	0.25%	11.286111
08.03.2015	 6,645,049 	 16,229 	0.24%	11.270139
09.03.2015	 6,661,257 	 16,207 	0.24%	11.254861
10.03.2015	 6,677,442 	 16,185 	0.24%	11.239583
11.03.2015	 6,693,604 	 16,163 	0.24%	11.224306
12.03.2015	 6,709,745 	 16,140 	0.24%	11.208333
13.03.2015	 6,725,863 	 16,118 	0.24%	11.193056
14.03.2015	 6,741,959 	 16,096 	0.24%	11.177778
15.03.2015	 6,758,033 	 16,074 	0.24%	11.162500
16.03.2015	 6,774,085 	 16,052 	0.24%	11.147222
17.03.2015	 6,790,115 	 16,030 	0.24%	11.131944
18.03.2015	 6,806,123 	 16,008 	0.24%	11.116667
19.03.2015	 6,822,109 	 15,986 	0.23%	11.101389
20.03.2015	 6,838,073 	 15,964 	0.23%	11.086111
21.03.2015	 6,854,015 	 15,942 	0.23%	11.070833
22.03.2015	 6,869,935 	 15,920 	0.23%	11.055556
23.03.2015	 6,885,834 	 15,898 	0.23%	11.040278
24.03.2015	 6,901,710 	 15,876 	0.23%	11.025000
25.03.2015	 6,917,565 	 15,855 	0.23%	11.010417
26.03.2015	 6,933,398 	 15,833 	0.23%	10.995139
27.03.2015	 6,949,209 	 15,811 	0.23%	10.979861
28.03.2015	 6,964,998 	 15,789 	0.23%	10.964583
29.03.2015	 6,980,766 	 15,768 	0.23%	10.950000
30.03.2015	 6,996,512 	 15,746 	0.23%	10.934722
31.03.2015	 7,012,237 	 15,725 	0.22%	10.920139
01.04.2015	 7,027,940 	 15,703 	0.22%	10.904861
02.04.2015	 7,043,621 	 15,681 	0.22%	10.889583
03.04.2015	 7,059,281 	 15,660 	0.22%	10.875000
04.04.2015	 7,074,919 	 15,638 	0.22%	10.859722
05.04.2015	 7,090,536 	 15,617 	0.22%	10.845139
06.04.2015	 7,106,131 	 15,595 	0.22%	10.829861
07.04.2015	 7,121,705 	 15,574 	0.22%	10.815278
08.04.2015	 7,137,258 	 15,553 	0.22%	10.800694
09.04.2015	 7,152,789 	 15,531 	0.22%	10.785417
10.04.2015	 7,168,299 	 15,510 	0.22%	10.770833
11.04.2015	 7,183,788 	 15,489 	0.22%	10.756250
12.04.2015	 7,199,255 	 15,467 	0.21%	10.740972
13.04.2015	 7,214,701 	 15,446 	0.21%	10.726389
14.04.2015	 7,230,126 	 15,425 	0.21%	10.711806
15.04.2015	 7,245,530 	 15,404 	0.21%	10.697222
16.04.2015	 7,260,912 	 15,383 	0.21%	10.682639
17.04.2015	 7,276,274 	 15,361 	0.21%	10.667361
18.04.2015	 7,291,614 	 15,340 	0.21%	10.652778
19.04.2015	 7,306,933 	 15,319 	0.21%	10.638194
20.04.2015	 7,322,231 	 15,298 	0.21%	10.623611
21.04.2015	 7,337,508 	 15,277 	0.21%	10.609028
22.04.2015	 7,352,765 	 15,256 	0.21%	10.594444
23.04.2015	 7,368,000 	 15,235 	0.21%	10.579861
24.04.2015	 7,383,214 	 15,214 	0.21%	10.565278
25.04.2015	 7,398,408 	 15,193 	0.21%	10.550694
26.04.2015	 7,413,580 	 15,173 	0.20%	10.536806
27.04.2015	 7,428,732 	 15,152 	0.20%	10.522222
28.04.2015	 7,443,863 	 15,131 	0.20%	10.507639
29.04.2015	 7,458,973 	 15,110 	0.20%	10.493056
30.04.2015	 7,474,063 	 15,089 	0.20%	10.478472
01.05.2015	 7,489,131 	 15,069 	0.20%	10.464583
02.05.2015	 7,504,179 	 15,048 	0.20%	10.450000
03.05.2015	 7,519,207 	 15,027 	0.20%	10.435417
04.05.2015	 7,534,213 	 15,007 	0.20%	10.421528
05.05.2015	 7,549,199 	 14,986 	0.20%	10.406944
06.05.2015	 7,564,165 	 14,966 	0.20%	10.393056
07.05.2015	 7,579,110 	 14,945 	0.20%	10.378472
08.05.2015	 7,594,034 	 14,924 	0.20%	10.363889
09.05.2015	 7,608,938 	 14,904 	0.20%	10.350000
10.05.2015	 7,623,822 	 14,883 	0.20%	10.335417
11.05.2015	 7,638,685 	 14,863 	0.19%	10.321528
12.05.2015	 7,653,527 	 14,843 	0.19%	10.307639
13.05.2015	 7,668,349 	 14,822 	0.19%	10.293056
14.05.2015	 7,683,151 	 14,802 	0.19%	10.279167
15.05.2015	 7,697,933 	 14,782 	0.19%	10.265278
16.05.2015	 7,712,694 	 14,761 	0.19%	10.250694
17.05.2015	 7,727,435 	 14,741 	0.19%	10.236806
18.05.2015	 7,742,156 	 14,721 	0.19%	10.222917
19.05.2015	 7,756,856 	 14,701 	0.19%	10.209028
20.05.2015	 7,771,537 	 14,680 	0.19%	10.194444
21.05.2015	 7,786,197 	 14,660 	0.19%	10.180556
22.05.2015	 7,800,837 	 14,640 	0.19%	10.166667
23.05.2015	 7,815,457 	 14,620 	0.19%	10.152778
24.05.2015	 7,830,057 	 14,600 	0.19%	10.138889
25.05.2015	 7,844,636 	 14,580 	0.19%	10.125000
26.05.2015	 7,859,196 	 14,560 	0.19%	10.111111
27.05.2015	 7,873,736 	 14,540 	0.18%	10.097222
28.05.2015	 7,888,256 	 14,520 	0.18%	10.083333
29.05.2015	 7,902,756 	 14,500 	0.18%	10.069444
30.05.2015	 7,917,236 	 14,480 	0.18%	10.055556
31.05.2015	 7,931,696 	 14,460 	0.18%	10.041667
01.06.2015	 7,946,136 	 14,440 	0.18%	10.027778
02.06.2015	 7,960,556 	 14,420 	0.18%	10.013889
03.06.2015	 7,974,957 	 14,401 	0.18%	10.000694
04.06.2015	 7,989,338 	 14,381 	0.18%	9.986806
05.06.2015	 8,003,699 	 14,361 	0.18%	9.972917
06.06.2015	 8,018,040 	 14,341 	0.18%	9.959028
07.06.2015	 8,032,362 	 14,322 	0.18%	9.945833
08.06.2015	 8,046,664 	 14,302 	0.18%	9.931944
09.06.2015	 8,060,946 	 14,282 	0.18%	9.918056
10.06.2015	 8,075,209 	 14,263 	0.18%	9.904861
11.06.2015	 8,089,452 	 14,243 	0.18%	9.890972
12.06.2015	 8,103,676 	 14,224 	0.18%	9.877778
13.06.2015	 8,117,880 	 14,204 	0.17%	9.863889
14.06.2015	 8,132,064 	 14,185 	0.17%	9.850694
15.06.2015	 8,146,229 	 14,165 	0.17%	9.836806
16.06.2015	 8,160,375 	 14,146 	0.17%	9.823611
17.06.2015	 8,174,501 	 14,126 	0.17%	9.809722
18.06.2015	 8,188,608 	 14,107 	0.17%	9.796528
19.06.2015	 8,202,695 	 14,087 	0.17%	9.782639
20.06.2015	 8,216,763 	 14,068 	0.17%	9.769444
21.06.2015	 8,230,812 	 14,049 	0.17%	9.756250
22.06.2015	 8,244,841 	 14,029 	0.17%	9.742361
23.06.2015	 8,258,852 	 14,010 	0.17%	9.729167
24.06.2015	 8,272,843 	 13,991 	0.17%	9.715972
25.06.2015	 8,286,814 	 13,972 	0.17%	9.702778
26.06.2015	 8,300,767 	 13,953 	0.17%	9.689583
27.06.2015	 8,314,700 	 13,933 	0.17%	9.675694
28.06.2015	 8,328,614 	 13,914 	0.17%	9.662500
29.06.2015	 8,342,510 	 13,895 	0.17%	9.649306
30.06.2015	 8,356,386 	 13,876 	0.17%	9.636111
01.07.2015	 8,370,243 	 13,857 	0.17%	9.622917
02.07.2015	 8,384,081 	 13,838 	0.17%	9.609722
03.07.2015	 8,397,900 	 13,819 	0.16%	9.596528
04.07.2015	 8,411,700 	 13,800 	0.16%	9.583333
05.07.2015	 8,425,481 	 13,781 	0.16%	9.570139
06.07.2015	 8,439,243 	 13,762 	0.16%	9.556944
07.07.2015	 8,452,986 	 13,743 	0.16%	9.543750
08.07.2015	 8,466,710 	 13,724 	0.16%	9.530556
09.07.2015	 8,480,416 	 13,705 	0.16%	9.517361
10.07.2015	 8,494,102 	 13,687 	0.16%	9.504861
11.07.2015	 8,507,770 	 13,668 	0.16%	9.491667
12.07.2015	 8,521,419 	 13,649 	0.16%	9.478472
13.07.2015	 8,535,050 	 13,630 	0.16%	9.465278
14.07.2015	 8,548,661 	 13,612 	0.16%	9.452778
15.07.2015	 8,562,254 	 13,593 	0.16%	9.439583
16.07.2015	 8,575,829 	 13,574 	0.16%	9.426389
17.07.2015	 8,589,384 	 13,556 	0.16%	9.413889
18.07.2015	 8,602,921 	 13,537 	0.16%	9.400694
19.07.2015	 8,616,440 	 13,518 	0.16%	9.387500
20.07.2015	 8,629,940 	 13,500 	0.16%	9.375000
21.07.2015	 8,643,421 	 13,481 	0.16%	9.361806
22.07.2015	 8,656,884 	 13,463 	0.16%	9.349306
23.07.2015	 8,670,328 	 13,444 	0.16%	9.336111
24.07.2015	 8,683,754 	 13,426 	0.15%	9.323611
25.07.2015	 8,697,161 	 13,407 	0.15%	9.310417
26.07.2015	 8,710,550 	 13,389 	0.15%	9.297917
27.07.2015	 8,723,921 	 13,371 	0.15%	9.285417
28.07.2015	 8,737,273 	 13,352 	0.15%	9.272222
29.07.2015	 8,750,607 	 13,334 	0.15%	9.259722
30.07.2015	 8,763,923 	 13,316 	0.15%	9.247222
31.07.2015	 8,777,220 	 13,297 	0.15%	9.234028
01.08.2015	 8,790,499 	 13,279 	0.15%	9.221528
02.08.2015	 8,803,760 	 13,261 	0.15%	9.209028
03.08.2015	 8,817,003 	 13,243 	0.15%	9.196528
04.08.2015	 8,830,227 	 13,224 	0.15%	9.183333
05.08.2015	 8,843,433 	 13,206 	0.15%	9.170833
06.08.2015	 8,856,621 	 13,188 	0.15%	9.158333
07.08.2015	 8,869,792 	 13,170 	0.15%	9.145833
08.08.2015	 8,882,943 	 13,152 	0.15%	9.133333
09.08.2015	 8,896,077 	 13,134 	0.15%	9.120833
10.08.2015	 8,909,193 	 13,116 	0.15%	9.108333
11.08.2015	 8,922,291 	 13,098 	0.15%	9.095833
12.08.2015	 8,935,371 	 13,080 	0.15%	9.083333
13.08.2015	 8,948,433 	 13,062 	0.15%	9.070833
14.08.2015	 8,961,477 	 13,044 	0.15%	9.058333
15.08.2015	 8,974,503 	 13,026 	0.15%	9.045833
16.08.2015	 8,987,511 	 13,008 	0.14%	9.033333
17.08.2015	 9,000,501 	 12,990 	0.14%	9.020833
18.08.2015	 9,013,474 	 12,972 	0.14%	9.008333
19.08.2015	 9,026,428 	 12,955 	0.14%	8.996528
20.08.2015	 9,039,365 	 12,937 	0.14%	8.984028
21.08.2015	 9,052,284 	 12,919 	0.14%	8.971528
22.08.2015	 9,065,185 	 12,901 	0.14%	8.959028
23.08.2015	 9,078,069 	 12,884 	0.14%	8.947222
24.08.2015	 9,090,935 	 12,866 	0.14%	8.934722
25.08.2015	 9,103,783 	 12,848 	0.14%	8.922222
26.08.2015	 9,116,614 	 12,831 	0.14%	8.910417
27.08.2015	 9,129,427 	 12,813 	0.14%	8.897917
28.08.2015	 9,142,222 	 12,795 	0.14%	8.885417
29.08.2015	 9,155,000 	 12,778 	0.14%	8.873611
30.08.2015	 9,167,760 	 12,760 	0.14%	8.861111
31.08.2015	 9,180,503 	 12,743 	0.14%	8.849306
01.09.2015	 9,193,228 	 12,725 	0.14%	8.836806
02.09.2015	 9,205,936 	 12,708 	0.14%	8.825000
03.09.2015	 9,218,626 	 12,690 	0.14%	8.812500
04.09.2015	 9,231,299 	 12,673 	0.14%	8.800694
05.09.2015	 9,243,955 	 12,655 	0.14%	8.788194
06.09.2015	 9,256,593 	 12,638 	0.14%	8.776389
07.09.2015	 9,269,214 	 12,621 	0.14%	8.764583
08.09.2015	 9,281,817 	 12,603 	0.14%	8.752083
09.09.2015	 9,294,403 	 12,586 	0.14%	8.740278
10.09.2015	 9,306,972 	 12,569 	0.14%	8.728472
11.09.2015	 9,319,524 	 12,552 	0.13%	8.716667
12.09.2015	 9,332,058 	 12,534 	0.13%	8.704167
13.09.2015	 9,344,575 	 12,517 	0.13%	8.692361
14.09.2015	 9,357,075 	 12,500 	0.13%	8.680556
15.09.2015	 9,369,558 	 12,483 	0.13%	8.668750
16.09.2015	 9,382,023 	 12,466 	0.13%	8.656944
17.09.2015	 9,394,472 	 12,448 	0.13%	8.644444
18.09.2015	 9,406,903 	 12,431 	0.13%	8.632639
19.09.2015	 9,419,318 	 12,414 	0.13%	8.620833
20.09.2015	 9,431,715 	 12,397 	0.13%	8.609028
21.09.2015	 9,444,095 	 12,380 	0.13%	8.597222
22.09.2015	 9,456,458 	 12,363 	0.13%	8.585417
23.09.2015	 9,468,805 	 12,346 	0.13%	8.573611
24.09.2015	 9,481,134 	 12,329 	0.13%	8.561806
25.09.2015	 9,493,446 	 12,312 	0.13%	8.550000
26.09.2015	 9,505,742 	 12,295 	0.13%	8.538194
27.09.2015	 9,518,020 	 12,279 	0.13%	8.527083
28.09.2015	 9,530,282 	 12,262 	0.13%	8.515278
29.09.2015	 9,542,527 	 12,245 	0.13%	8.503472
30.09.2015	 9,554,755 	 12,228 	0.13%	8.491667
01.10.2015	 9,566,966 	 12,211 	0.13%	8.479861
02.10.2015	 9,579,161 	 12,195 	0.13%	8.468750
03.10.2015	 9,591,339 	 12,178 	0.13%	8.456944
04.10.2015	 9,603,500 	 12,161 	0.13%	8.445139
05.10.2015	 9,615,644 	 12,144 	0.13%	8.433333
06.10.2015	 9,627,772 	 12,128 	0.13%	8.422222
07.10.2015	 9,639,883 	 12,111 	0.13%	8.410417
08.10.2015	 9,651,977 	 12,094 	0.13%	8.398611
09.10.2015	 9,664,055 	 12,078 	0.12%	8.387500
10.10.2015	 9,676,116 	 12,061 	0.12%	8.375694
11.10.2015	 9,688,161 	 12,045 	0.12%	8.364583
12.10.2015	 9,700,189 	 12,028 	0.12%	8.352778
13.10.2015	 9,712,200 	 12,012 	0.12%	8.341667
14.10.2015	 9,724,195 	 11,995 	0.12%	8.329861
15.10.2015	 9,736,174 	 11,979 	0.12%	8.318750
16.10.2015	 9,748,136 	 11,962 	0.12%	8.306944
17.10.2015	 9,760,082 	 11,946 	0.12%	8.295833
18.10.2015	 9,772,011 	 11,929 	0.12%	8.284028
19.10.2015	 9,783,924 	 11,913 	0.12%	8.272917
20.10.2015	 9,795,821 	 11,897 	0.12%	8.261806
21.10.2015	 9,807,701 	 11,880 	0.12%	8.250000
22.10.2015	 9,819,565 	 11,864 	0.12%	8.238889
23.10.2015	 9,831,413 	 11,848 	0.12%	8.227778
24.10.2015	 9,843,244 	 11,831 	0.12%	8.215972
25.10.2015	 9,855,059 	 11,815 	0.12%	8.204861
26.10.2015	 9,866,858 	 11,799 	0.12%	8.193750
27.10.2015	 9,878,641 	 11,783 	0.12%	8.182639
28.10.2015	 9,890,407 	 11,766 	0.12%	8.170833
29.10.2015	 9,902,157 	 11,750 	0.12%	8.159722
30.10.2015	 9,913,892 	 11,734 	0.12%	8.148611
31.10.2015	 9,925,610 	 11,718 	0.12%	8.137500
01.11.2015	 9,937,312 	 11,702 	0.12%	8.126389
02.11.2015	 9,948,998 	 11,686 	0.12%	8.115278
03.11.2015	 9,960,667 	 11,670 	0.12%	8.104167
04.11.2015	 9,972,321 	 11,654 	0.12%	8.093056
05.11.2015	 9,983,959 	 11,638 	0.12%	8.081944
06.11.2015	 9,995,581 	 11,622 	0.12%	8.070833
07.11.2015	 10,007,187 	 11,606 	0.12%	8.059722
08.11.2015	 10,018,777 	 11,590 	0.12%	8.048611
09.11.2015	 10,030,351 	 11,574 	0.12%	8.037500
10.11.2015	 10,041,909 	 11,558 	0.12%	8.026389
11.11.2015	 10,053,451 	 11,542 	0.11%	8.015278
12.11.2015	 10,064,978 	 11,526 	0.11%	8.004167
13.11.2015	 10,076,488 	 11,511 	0.11%	7.993750
14.11.2015	 10,087,983 	 11,495 	0.11%	7.982639
15.11.2015	 10,099,462 	 11,479 	0.11%	7.971528
16.11.2015	 10,110,926 	 11,463 	0.11%	7.960417
17.11.2015	 10,122,373 	 11,448 	0.11%	7.950000
18.11.2015	 10,133,805 	 11,432 	0.11%	7.938889
19.11.2015	 10,145,221 	 11,416 	0.11%	7.927778
20.11.2015	 10,156,621 	 11,400 	0.11%	7.916667
21.11.2015	 10,168,006 	 11,385 	0.11%	7.906250
22.11.2015	 10,179,375 	 11,369 	0.11%	7.895139
23.11.2015	 10,190,729 	 11,354 	0.11%	7.884722
24.11.2015	 10,202,067 	 11,338 	0.11%	7.873611
25.11.2015	 10,213,389 	 11,322 	0.11%	7.862500
26.11.2015	 10,224,696 	 11,307 	0.11%	7.852083
27.11.2015	 10,235,987 	 11,291 	0.11%	7.840972
28.11.2015	 10,247,263 	 11,276 	0.11%	7.830556
29.11.2015	 10,258,523 	 11,260 	0.11%	7.819444
30.11.2015	 10,269,768 	 11,245 	0.11%	7.809028
01.12.2015	 10,280,997 	 11,229 	0.11%	7.797917
02.12.2015	 10,292,211 	 11,214 	0.11%	7.787500
03.12.2015	 10,303,410 	 11,199 	0.11%	7.777083
04.12.2015	 10,314,593 	 11,183 	0.11%	7.765972
05.12.2015	 10,325,761 	 11,168 	0.11%	7.755556
06.12.2015	 10,336,913 	 11,152 	0.11%	7.744444
07.12.2015	 10,348,050 	 11,137 	0.11%	7.734028
08.12.2015	 10,359,172 	 11,122 	0.11%	7.723611
09.12.2015	 10,370,279 	 11,107 	0.11%	7.713194
10.12.2015	 10,381,370 	 11,091 	0.11%	7.702083
11.12.2015	 10,392,446 	 11,076 	0.11%	7.691667
12.12.2015	 10,403,507 	 11,061 	0.11%	7.681250
13.12.2015	 10,414,553 	 11,046 	0.11%	7.670833
14.12.2015	 10,425,583 	 11,031 	0.11%	7.660417
15.12.2015	 10,436,599 	 11,015 	0.11%	7.649306
16.12.2015	 10,447,599 	 11,000 	0.11%	7.638889
17.12.2015	 10,458,584 	 10,985 	0.11%	7.628472
18.12.2015	 10,469,554 	 10,970 	0.10%	7.618056
19.12.2015	 10,480,509 	 10,955 	0.10%	7.607639
20.12.2015	 10,491,449 	 10,940 	0.10%	7.597222
21.12.2015	 10,502,374 	 10,925 	0.10%	7.586806
22.12.2015	 10,513,284 	 10,910 	0.10%	7.576389
23.12.2015	 10,524,179 	 10,895 	0.10%	7.565972
24.12.2015	 10,535,059 	 10,880 	0.10%	7.555556
25.12.2015	 10,545,924 	 10,865 	0.10%	7.545139
26.12.2015	 10,556,774 	 10,850 	0.10%	7.534722
27.12.2015	 10,567,609 	 10,835 	0.10%	7.524306
28.12.2015	 10,578,430 	 10,820 	0.10%	7.513889
29.12.2015	 10,589,235 	 10,805 	0.10%	7.503472
30.12.2015	 10,600,026 	 10,791 	0.10%	7.493750
31.12.2015	 10,610,802 	 10,776 	0.10%	7.483333
01.01.2016	 10,621,563 	 10,761 	0.10%	7.472917
02.01.2016	 10,632,309 	 10,746 	0.10%	7.462500
03.01.2016	 10,643,040 	 10,731 	0.10%	7.452083
04.01.2016	 10,653,757 	 10,717 	0.10%	7.442361
05.01.2016	 10,664,459 	 10,702 	0.10%	7.431944
06.01.2016	 10,675,147 	 10,687 	0.10%	7.421528
07.01.2016	 10,685,819 	 10,673 	0.10%	7.411806
08.01.2016	 10,696,477 	 10,658 	0.10%	7.401389
09.01.2016	 10,707,121 	 10,643 	0.10%	7.390972
10.01.2016	 10,717,749 	 10,629 	0.10%	7.381250
11.01.2016	 10,728,364 	 10,614 	0.10%	7.370833
12.01.2016	 10,738,963 	 10,600 	0.10%	7.361111
13.01.2016	 10,749,548 	 10,585 	0.10%	7.350694
14.01.2016	 10,760,119 	 10,570 	0.10%	7.340278
15.01.2016	 10,770,675 	 10,556 	0.10%	7.330556
16.01.2016	 10,781,216 	 10,541 	0.10%	7.320139
17.01.2016	 10,791,743 	 10,527 	0.10%	7.310417
18.01.2016	 10,802,256 	 10,513 	0.10%	7.300694
19.01.2016	 10,812,754 	 10,498 	0.10%	7.290278
20.01.2016	 10,823,237 	 10,484 	0.10%	7.280556
21.01.2016	 10,833,707 	 10,469 	0.10%	7.270139
22.01.2016	 10,844,162 	 10,455 	0.10%	7.260417
23.01.2016	 10,854,602 	 10,441 	0.10%	7.250694
24.01.2016	 10,865,028 	 10,426 	0.10%	7.240278
25.01.2016	 10,875,440 	 10,412 	0.10%	7.230556
26.01.2016	 10,885,838 	 10,398 	0.10%	7.220833
27.01.2016	 10,896,221 	 10,383 	0.10%	7.210417
28.01.2016	 10,906,590 	 10,369 	0.10%	7.200694
29.01.2016	 10,916,945 	 10,355 	0.09%	7.190972
30.01.2016	 10,927,286 	 10,341 	0.09%	7.181250
31.01.2016	 10,937,612 	 10,326 	0.09%	7.170833
01.02.2016	 10,947,924 	 10,312 	0.09%	7.161111
02.02.2016	 10,958,222 	 10,298 	0.09%	7.151389
03.02.2016	 10,968,506 	 10,284 	0.09%	7.141667
04.02.2016	 10,978,776 	 10,270 	0.09%	7.131944
05.02.2016	 10,989,032 	 10,256 	0.09%	7.122222
06.02.2016	 10,999,273 	 10,242 	0.09%	7.112500
07.02.2016	 11,009,501 	 10,228 	0.09%	7.102778
08.02.2016	 11,019,714 	 10,213 	0.09%	7.092361
09.02.2016	 11,029,914 	 10,199 	0.09%	7.082639
10.02.2016	 11,040,099 	 10,185 	0.09%	7.072917
11.02.2016	 11,050,271 	 10,171 	0.09%	7.063194
12.02.2016	 11,060,428 	 10,158 	0.09%	7.054167
13.02.2016	 11,070,572 	 10,144 	0.09%	7.044444
14.02.2016	 11,080,702 	 10,130 	0.09%	7.034722
15.02.2016	 11,090,817 	 10,116 	0.09%	7.025000
16.02.2016	 11,100,919 	 10,102 	0.09%	7.015278
17.02.2016	 11,111,007 	 10,088 	0.09%	7.005556
18.02.2016	 11,121,081 	 10,074 	0.09%	6.995833
19.02.2016	 11,131,141 	 10,060 	0.09%	6.986111
20.02.2016	 11,141,188 	 10,046 	0.09%	6.976389
21.02.2016	 11,151,221 	 10,033 	0.09%	6.967361
22.02.2016	 11,161,239 	 10,019 	0.09%	6.957639
23.02.2016	 11,171,245 	 10,005 	0.09%	6.947917
24.02.2016	 11,181,236 	 9,991 	0.09%	6.938194
25.02.2016	 11,191,214 	 9,978 	0.09%	6.929167
26.02.2016	 11,201,178 	 9,964 	0.09%	6.919444
27.02.2016	 11,211,128 	 9,950 	0.09%	6.909722
28.02.2016	 11,221,064 	 9,937 	0.09%	6.900694
29.02.2016	 11,230,987 	 9,923 	0.09%	6.890972
01.03.2016	 11,240,897 	 9,909 	0.09%	6.881250
02.03.2016	 11,250,792 	 9,896 	0.09%	6.872222
03.03.2016	 11,260,675 	 9,882 	0.09%	6.862500
04.03.2016	 11,270,543 	 9,869 	0.09%	6.853472
05.03.2016	 11,280,398 	 9,855 	0.09%	6.843750
06.03.2016	 11,290,240 	 9,841 	0.09%	6.834028
07.03.2016	 11,300,068 	 9,828 	0.09%	6.825000
08.03.2016	 11,309,882 	 9,814 	0.09%	6.815278
09.03.2016	 11,319,683 	 9,801 	0.09%	6.806250
10.03.2016	 11,329,471 	 9,788 	0.09%	6.797222
11.03.2016	 11,339,245 	 9,774 	0.09%	6.787500
12.03.2016	 11,349,005 	 9,761 	0.09%	6.778472
13.03.2016	 11,358,753 	 9,747 	0.09%	6.768750
14.03.2016	 11,368,487 	 9,734 	0.09%	6.759722
15.03.2016	 11,378,207 	 9,721 	0.09%	6.750694
16.03.2016	 11,387,914 	 9,707 	0.09%	6.740972
17.03.2016	 11,397,608 	 9,694 	0.09%	6.731944
18.03.2016	 11,407,289 	 9,681 	0.08%	6.722917
19.03.2016	 11,416,956 	 9,667 	0.08%	6.713194
20.03.2016	 11,426,610 	 9,654 	0.08%	6.704167
21.03.2016	 11,436,250 	 9,641 	0.08%	6.695139
22.03.2016	 11,445,878 	 9,627 	0.08%	6.685417
23.03.2016	 11,455,492 	 9,614 	0.08%	6.676389
24.03.2016	 11,465,093 	 9,601 	0.08%	6.667361
25.03.2016	 11,474,681 	 9,588 	0.08%	6.658333
26.03.2016	 11,484,256 	 9,575 	0.08%	6.649306
27.03.2016	 11,493,817 	 9,562 	0.08%	6.640278
28.03.2016	 11,503,365 	 9,548 	0.08%	6.630556
29.03.2016	 11,512,901 	 9,535 	0.08%	6.621528
30.03.2016	 11,522,423 	 9,522 	0.08%	6.612500
31.03.2016	 11,531,932 	 9,509 	0.08%	6.603472
01.04.2016	 11,541,428 	 9,496 	0.08%	6.594444
02.04.2016	 11,550,911 	 9,483 	0.08%	6.585417
03.04.2016	 11,560,381 	 9,470 	0.08%	6.576389
04.04.2016	 11,569,838 	 9,457 	0.08%	6.567361
05.04.2016	 11,579,282 	 9,444 	0.08%	6.558333
06.04.2016	 11,588,713 	 9,431 	0.08%	6.549306
07.04.2016	 11,598,131 	 9,418 	0.08%	6.540278
08.04.2016	 11,607,536 	 9,405 	0.08%	6.531250
09.04.2016	 11,616,929 	 9,392 	0.08%	6.522222
10.04.2016	 11,626,308 	 9,379 	0.08%	6.513194
11.04.2016	 11,635,674 	 9,366 	0.08%	6.504167
12.04.2016	 11,645,028 	 9,354 	0.08%	6.495833
13.04.2016	 11,654,369 	 9,341 	0.08%	6.486806
14.04.2016	 11,663,697 	 9,328 	0.08%	6.477778
15.04.2016	 11,673,012 	 9,315 	0.08%	6.468750
16.04.2016	 11,682,314 	 9,302 	0.08%	6.459722
17.04.2016	 11,691,603 	 9,290 	0.08%	6.451389
18.04.2016	 11,700,880 	 9,277 	0.08%	6.442361
19.04.2016	 11,710,144 	 9,264 	0.08%	6.433333
20.04.2016	 11,719,396 	 9,251 	0.08%	6.424306
21.04.2016	 11,728,634 	 9,239 	0.08%	6.415972
22.04.2016	 11,737,860 	 9,226 	0.08%	6.406944
23.04.2016	 11,747,073 	 9,213 	0.08%	6.397917
24.04.2016	 11,756,274 	 9,201 	0.08%	6.389583
25.04.2016	 11,765,462 	 9,188 	0.08%	6.380556
26.04.2016	 11,774,637 	 9,175 	0.08%	6.371528
27.04.2016	 11,783,800 	 9,163 	0.08%	6.363194
28.04.2016	 11,792,950 	 9,150 	0.08%	6.354167
29.04.2016	 11,802,088 	 9,138 	0.08%	6.345833
30.04.2016	 11,811,213 	 9,125 	0.08%	6.336806
01.05.2016	 11,820,325 	 9,113 	0.08%	6.328472
02.05.2016	 11,829,425 	 9,100 	0.08%	6.319444
03.05.2016	 11,838,513 	 9,088 	0.08%	6.311111
04.05.2016	 11,847,588 	 9,075 	0.08%	6.302083
05.05.2016	 11,856,650 	 9,063 	0.08%	6.293750
06.05.2016	 11,865,701 	 9,050 	0.08%	6.284722
07.05.2016	 11,874,738 	 9,038 	0.08%	6.276389
08.05.2016	 11,883,763 	 9,025 	0.08%	6.267361
09.05.2016	 11,892,776 	 9,013 	0.08%	6.259028
10.05.2016	 11,901,777 	 9,001 	0.08%	6.250694
11.05.2016	 11,910,765 	 8,988 	0.08%	6.241667
12.05.2016	 11,919,741 	 8,976 	0.08%	6.233333
13.05.2016	 11,928,704 	 8,963 	0.08%	6.224306
14.05.2016	 11,937,655 	 8,951 	0.07%	6.215972
15.05.2016	 11,946,594 	 8,939 	0.07%	6.207639
16.05.2016	 11,955,521 	 8,927 	0.07%	6.199306
17.05.2016	 11,964,435 	 8,914 	0.07%	6.190278
18.05.2016	 11,973,337 	 8,902 	0.07%	6.181944
19.05.2016	 11,982,227 	 8,890 	0.07%	6.173611
20.05.2016	 11,991,105 	 8,878 	0.07%	6.165278
21.05.2016	 11,999,970 	 8,865 	0.07%	6.156250
22.05.2016	 12,008,824 	 8,853 	0.07%	6.147917
23.05.2016	 12,017,665 	 8,841 	0.07%	6.139583
24.05.2016	 12,026,494 	 8,829 	0.07%	6.131250
25.05.2016	 12,035,311 	 8,817 	0.07%	6.122917
26.05.2016	 12,044,115 	 8,805 	0.07%	6.114583
27.05.2016	 12,052,908 	 8,793 	0.07%	6.106250
28.05.2016	 12,061,689 	 8,781 	0.07%	6.097917
29.05.2016	 12,070,457 	 8,769 	0.07%	6.089583
30.05.2016	 12,079,214 	 8,756 	0.07%	6.080556
31.05.2016	 12,087,958 	 8,744 	0.07%	6.072222
01.06.2016	 12,096,691 	 8,732 	0.07%	6.063889
02.06.2016	 12,105,411 	 8,720 	0.07%	6.055556
03.06.2016	 12,114,120 	 8,708 	0.07%	6.047222
04.06.2016	 12,122,816 	 8,697 	0.07%	6.039583
05.06.2016	 12,131,501 	 8,685 	0.07%	6.031250
06.06.2016	 12,140,173 	 8,673 	0.07%	6.022917
07.06.2016	 12,148,834 	 8,661 	0.07%	6.014583
08.06.2016	 12,157,483 	 8,649 	0.07%	6.006250
09.06.2016	 12,166,120 	 8,637 	0.07%	5.997917
10.06.2016	 12,174,745 	 8,625 	0.07%	5.989583
11.06.2016	 12,183,358 	 8,613 	0.07%	5.981250
12.06.2016	 12,191,960 	 8,601 	0.07%	5.972917
13.06.2016	 12,200,550 	 8,590 	0.07%	5.965278
14.06.2016	 12,209,127 	 8,578 	0.07%	5.956944
15.06.2016	 12,217,693 	 8,566 	0.07%	5.948611
16.06.2016	 12,226,248 	 8,554 	0.07%	5.940278
17.06.2016	 12,234,790 	 8,543 	0.07%	5.932639
18.06.2016	 12,243,321 	 8,531 	0.07%	5.924306
19.06.2016	 12,251,840 	 8,519 	0.07%	5.915972
20.06.2016	 12,260,348 	 8,507 	0.07%	5.907639
21.06.2016	 12,268,843 	 8,496 	0.07%	5.900000
22.06.2016	 12,277,327 	 8,484 	0.07%	5.891667
23.06.2016	 12,285,800 	 8,472 	0.07%	5.883333
24.06.2016	 12,294,261 	 8,461 	0.07%	5.875694
25.06.2016	 12,302,710 	 8,449 	0.07%	5.867361
26.06.2016	 12,311,147 	 8,438 	0.07%	5.859722
27.06.2016	 12,319,573 	 8,426 	0.07%	5.851389
28.06.2016	 12,327,988 	 8,414 	0.07%	5.843056
29.06.2016	 12,336,390 	 8,403 	0.07%	5.835417
30.06.2016	 12,344,782 	 8,391 	0.07%	5.827083
01.07.2016	 12,353,162 	 8,380 	0.07%	5.819444
02.07.2016	 12,361,530 	 8,368 	0.07%	5.811111
03.07.2016	 12,369,887 	 8,357 	0.07%	5.803472
04.07.2016	 12,378,232 	 8,345 	0.07%	5.795139
05.07.2016	 12,386,566 	 8,334 	0.07%	5.787500
06.07.2016	 12,394,888 	 8,322 	0.07%	5.779167
07.07.2016	 12,403,199 	 8,311 	0.07%	5.771528
08.07.2016	 12,411,499 	 8,300 	0.07%	5.763889
09.07.2016	 12,419,787 	 8,288 	0.07%	5.755556
10.07.2016	 12,428,064 	 8,277 	0.07%	5.747917
11.07.2016	 12,436,329 	 8,265 	0.07%	5.739583
12.07.2016	 12,444,583 	 8,254 	0.07%	5.731944
13.07.2016	 12,452,826 	 8,243 	0.07%	5.724306
14.07.2016	 12,461,057 	 8,231 	0.07%	5.715972
15.07.2016	 12,469,277 	 8,220 	0.07%	5.708333
16.07.2016	 12,477,486 	 8,209 	0.07%	5.700694
17.07.2016	 12,485,683 	 8,198 	0.07%	5.693056
18.07.2016	 12,493,870 	 8,186 	0.07%	5.684722
19.07.2016	 12,502,045 	 8,175 	0.07%	5.677083
20.07.2016	 12,510,209 	 8,164 	0.07%	5.669444
21.07.2016	 12,518,361 	 8,153 	0.07%	5.661806
22.07.2016	 12,526,503 	 8,141 	0.06%	5.653472
23.07.2016	 12,534,633 	 8,130 	0.06%	5.645833
24.07.2016	 12,542,752 	 8,119 	0.06%	5.638194
25.07.2016	 12,550,860 	 8,108 	0.06%	5.630556
26.07.2016	 12,558,957 	 8,097 	0.06%	5.622917
27.07.2016	 12,567,042 	 8,086 	0.06%	5.615278
28.07.2016	 12,575,117 	 8,075 	0.06%	5.607639
29.07.2016	 12,583,180 	 8,063 	0.06%	5.599306
30.07.2016	 12,591,233 	 8,052 	0.06%	5.591667
31.07.2016	 12,599,274 	 8,041 	0.06%	5.584028
01.08.2016	 12,607,304 	 8,030 	0.06%	5.576389
02.08.2016	 12,615,323 	 8,019 	0.06%	5.568750
03.08.2016	 12,623,332 	 8,008 	0.06%	5.561111
04.08.2016	 12,631,329 	 7,997 	0.06%	5.553472
05.08.2016	 12,639,315 	 7,986 	0.06%	5.545833
06.08.2016	 12,647,290 	 7,975 	0.06%	5.538194
07.08.2016	 12,655,255 	 7,964 	0.06%	5.530556
08.08.2016	 12,663,208 	 7,953 	0.06%	5.522917
09.08.2016	 12,671,151 	 7,942 	0.06%	5.515278
10.08.2016	 12,679,082 	 7,932 	0.06%	5.508333
11.08.2016	 12,687,003 	 7,921 	0.06%	5.500694
12.08.2016	 12,694,913 	 7,910 	0.06%	5.493056
13.08.2016	 12,702,812 	 7,899 	0.06%	5.485417
14.08.2016	 12,710,700 	 7,888 	0.06%	5.477778
15.08.2016	 12,718,577 	 7,877 	0.06%	5.470139
16.08.2016	 12,726,443 	 7,866 	0.06%	5.462500
17.08.2016	 12,734,299 	 7,856 	0.06%	5.455556
18.08.2016	 12,742,144 	 7,845 	0.06%	5.447917
19.08.2016	 12,749,978 	 7,834 	0.06%	5.440278
20.08.2016	 12,757,801 	 7,823 	0.06%	5.432639
21.08.2016	 12,765,614 	 7,813 	0.06%	5.425694
22.08.2016	 12,773,416 	 7,802 	0.06%	5.418056
23.08.2016	 12,781,207 	 7,791 	0.06%	5.410417
24.08.2016	 12,788,987 	 7,780 	0.06%	5.402778
25.08.2016	 12,796,757 	 7,770 	0.06%	5.395833
26.08.2016	 12,804,516 	 7,759 	0.06%	5.388194
27.08.2016	 12,812,264 	 7,748 	0.06%	5.380556
28.08.2016	 12,820,002 	 7,738 	0.06%	5.373611
29.08.2016	 12,827,729 	 7,727 	0.06%	5.365972
30.08.2016	 12,835,446 	 7,717 	0.06%	5.359028
31.08.2016	 12,843,152 	 7,706 	0.06%	5.351389
01.09.2016	 12,850,847 	 7,695 	0.06%	5.343750
02.09.2016	 12,858,532 	 7,685 	0.06%	5.336806
03.09.2016	 12,866,206 	 7,674 	0.06%	5.329167
04.09.2016	 12,873,870 	 7,664 	0.06%	5.322222
05.09.2016	 12,881,523 	 7,653 	0.06%	5.314583
06.09.2016	 12,889,166 	 7,643 	0.06%	5.307639
07.09.2016	 12,896,798 	 7,632 	0.06%	5.300000
08.09.2016	 12,904,420 	 7,622 	0.06%	5.293056
09.09.2016	 12,912,031 	 7,611 	0.06%	5.285417
10.09.2016	 12,919,632 	 7,601 	0.06%	5.278472
11.09.2016	 12,927,222 	 7,590 	0.06%	5.270833
12.09.2016	 12,934,802 	 7,580 	0.06%	5.263889
13.09.2016	 12,942,371 	 7,570 	0.06%	5.256944
14.09.2016	 12,949,931 	 7,559 	0.06%	5.249306
15.09.2016	 12,957,479 	 7,549 	0.06%	5.242361
16.09.2016	 12,965,018 	 7,538 	0.06%	5.234722
17.09.2016	 12,972,546 	 7,528 	0.06%	5.227778
18.09.2016	 12,980,063 	 7,518 	0.06%	5.220833
19.09.2016	 12,987,571 	 7,507 	0.06%	5.213194
20.09.2016	 12,995,068 	 7,497 	0.06%	5.206250
21.09.2016	 13,002,554 	 7,487 	0.06%	5.199306
22.09.2016	 13,010,031 	 7,476 	0.06%	5.191667
23.09.2016	 13,017,497 	 7,466 	0.06%	5.184722
24.09.2016	 13,024,953 	 7,456 	0.06%	5.177778
25.09.2016	 13,032,399 	 7,446 	0.06%	5.170833
26.09.2016	 13,039,834 	 7,435 	0.06%	5.163194
27.09.2016	 13,047,259 	 7,425 	0.06%	5.156250
28.09.2016	 13,054,675 	 7,415 	0.06%	5.149306
29.09.2016	 13,062,079 	 7,405 	0.06%	5.142361
30.09.2016	 13,069,474 	 7,395 	0.06%	5.135417
01.10.2016	 13,076,859 	 7,385 	0.06%	5.128472
02.10.2016	 13,084,233 	 7,374 	0.06%	5.120833
03.10.2016	 13,091,597 	 7,364 	0.06%	5.113889
04.10.2016	 13,098,952 	 7,354 	0.06%	5.106944
05.10.2016	 13,106,296 	 7,344 	0.06%	5.100000
06.10.2016	 13,113,630 	 7,334 	0.06%	5.093056
07.10.2016	 13,120,954 	 7,324 	0.06%	5.086111
08.10.2016	 13,128,267 	 7,314 	0.06%	5.079167
09.10.2016	 13,135,571 	 7,304 	0.06%	5.072222
10.10.2016	 13,142,865 	 7,294 	0.06%	5.065278
11.10.2016	 13,150,149 	 7,284 	0.06%	5.058333
12.10.2016	 13,157,423 	 7,274 	0.06%	5.051389
13.10.2016	 13,164,686 	 7,264 	0.06%	5.044444
14.10.2016	 13,171,940 	 7,254 	0.06%	5.037500
15.10.2016	 13,179,184 	 7,244 	0.05%	5.030556
16.10.2016	 13,186,418 	 7,234 	0.05%	5.023611
17.10.2016	 13,193,642 	 7,224 	0.05%	5.016667
18.10.2016	 13,200,856 	 7,214 	0.05%	5.009722
19.10.2016	 13,208,060 	 7,204 	0.05%	5.002778
20.10.2016	 13,215,254 	 7,194 	0.05%	4.995833
21.10.2016	 13,222,439 	 7,184 	0.05%	4.988889
22.10.2016	 13,229,613 	 7,174 	0.05%	4.981944
23.10.2016	 13,236,778 	 7,165 	0.05%	4.975694
24.10.2016	 13,243,932 	 7,155 	0.05%	4.968750
25.10.2016	 13,251,077 	 7,145 	0.05%	4.961806
26.10.2016	 13,258,213 	 7,135 	0.05%	4.954861
27.10.2016	 13,265,338 	 7,125 	0.05%	4.947917
28.10.2016	 13,272,454 	 7,116 	0.05%	4.941667
29.10.2016	 13,279,559 	 7,106 	0.05%	4.934722
30.10.2016	 13,286,655 	 7,096 	0.05%	4.927778
31.10.2016	 13,293,742 	 7,086 	0.05%	4.920833
01.11.2016	 13,300,818 	 7,077 	0.05%	4.914583
02.11.2016	 13,307,885 	 7,067 	0.05%	4.907639
03.11.2016	 13,314,942 	 7,057 	0.05%	4.900694
04.11.2016	 13,321,990 	 7,047 	0.05%	4.893750
05.11.2016	 13,329,028 	 7,038 	0.05%	4.887500
06.11.2016	 13,336,056 	 7,028 	0.05%	4.880556
07.11.2016	 13,343,074 	 7,018 	0.05%	4.873611
08.11.2016	 13,350,083 	 7,009 	0.05%	4.867361
09.11.2016	 13,357,082 	 6,999 	0.05%	4.860417
10.11.2016	 13,364,072 	 6,990 	0.05%	4.854167
11.11.2016	 13,371,052 	 6,980 	0.05%	4.847222
12.11.2016	 13,378,022 	 6,970 	0.05%	4.840278
13.11.2016	 13,384,983 	 6,961 	0.05%	4.834028
14.11.2016	 13,391,934 	 6,951 	0.05%	4.827083
15.11.2016	 13,398,876 	 6,942 	0.05%	4.820833
16.11.2016	 13,405,808 	 6,932 	0.05%	4.813889
17.11.2016	 13,412,731 	 6,923 	0.05%	4.807639
18.11.2016	 13,419,644 	 6,913 	0.05%	4.800694
19.11.2016	 13,426,548 	 6,904 	0.05%	4.794444
20.11.2016	 13,433,442 	 6,894 	0.05%	4.787500
21.11.2016	 13,440,327 	 6,885 	0.05%	4.781250
22.11.2016	 13,447,202 	 6,875 	0.05%	4.774306
23.11.2016	 13,454,068 	 6,866 	0.05%	4.768056
24.11.2016	 13,460,924 	 6,856 	0.05%	4.761111
25.11.2016	 13,467,771 	 6,847 	0.05%	4.754861
26.11.2016	 13,474,609 	 6,838 	0.05%	4.748611
27.11.2016	 13,481,437 	 6,828 	0.05%	4.741667
28.11.2016	 13,488,256 	 6,819 	0.05%	4.735417
29.11.2016	 13,495,065 	 6,809 	0.05%	4.728472
30.11.2016	 13,501,865 	 6,800 	0.05%	4.722222
01.12.2016	 13,508,656 	 6,791 	0.05%	4.715972
02.12.2016	 13,515,437 	 6,781 	0.05%	4.709028
03.12.2016	 13,522,209 	 6,772 	0.05%	4.702778
04.12.2016	 13,528,972 	 6,763 	0.05%	4.696528
05.12.2016	 13,535,726 	 6,754 	0.05%	4.690278
06.12.2016	 13,542,470 	 6,744 	0.05%	4.683333
07.12.2016	 13,549,205 	 6,735 	0.05%	4.677083
08.12.2016	 13,555,931 	 6,726 	0.05%	4.670833
09.12.2016	 13,562,647 	 6,717 	0.05%	4.664583
10.12.2016	 13,569,355 	 6,707 	0.05%	4.657639
11.12.2016	 13,576,053 	 6,698 	0.05%	4.651389
12.12.2016	 13,582,742 	 6,689 	0.05%	4.645139
13.12.2016	 13,589,421 	 6,680 	0.05%	4.638889
14.12.2016	 13,596,092 	 6,671 	0.05%	4.632639
15.12.2016	 13,602,753 	 6,661 	0.05%	4.625694
16.12.2016	 13,609,405 	 6,652 	0.05%	4.619444
17.12.2016	 13,616,048 	 6,643 	0.05%	4.613194
18.12.2016	 13,622,682 	 6,634 	0.05%	4.606944
19.12.2016	 13,629,307 	 6,625 	0.05%	4.600694
20.12.2016	 13,635,923 	 6,616 	0.05%	4.594444
21.12.2016	 13,642,530 	 6,607 	0.05%	4.588194
22.12.2016	 13,649,127 	 6,598 	0.05%	4.581944
23.12.2016	 13,655,716 	 6,589 	0.05%	4.575694
24.12.2016	 13,662,295 	 6,579 	0.05%	4.568750
25.12.2016	 13,668,866 	 6,570 	0.05%	4.562500
26.12.2016	 13,675,427 	 6,561 	0.05%	4.556250
27.12.2016	 13,681,979 	 6,552 	0.05%	4.550000
28.12.2016	 13,688,523 	 6,543 	0.05%	4.543750
29.12.2016	 13,695,057 	 6,534 	0.05%	4.537500
30.12.2016	 13,701,583 	 6,525 	0.05%	4.531250
31.12.2016	 13,708,099 	 6,516 	0.05%	4.525000
01.01.2017	 13,714,607 	 6,508 	0.05%	4.519444
02.01.2017	 13,721,105 	 6,499 	0.05%	4.513194
03.01.2017	 13,727,595 	 6,490 	0.05%	4.506944
04.01.2017	 13,734,076 	 6,481 	0.05%	4.500694
05.01.2017	 13,740,548 	 6,472 	0.05%	4.494444
06.01.2017	 13,747,011 	 6,463 	0.05%	4.488194
07.01.2017	 13,753,465 	 6,454 	0.05%	4.481944
08.01.2017	 13,759,910 	 6,445 	0.05%	4.475694
09.01.2017	 13,766,346 	 6,436 	0.05%	4.469444
10.01.2017	 13,772,774 	 6,428 	0.05%	4.463889
11.01.2017	 13,779,193 	 6,419 	0.05%	4.457639
12.01.2017	 13,785,603 	 6,410 	0.05%	4.451389
13.01.2017	 13,792,004 	 6,401 	0.05%	4.445139
14.01.2017	 13,798,396 	 6,392 	0.05%	4.438889
15.01.2017	 13,804,780 	 6,384 	0.05%	4.433333
16.01.2017	 13,811,154 	 6,375 	0.05%	4.427083
17.01.2017	 13,817,520 	 6,366 	0.05%	4.420833
18.01.2017	 13,823,878 	 6,357 	0.05%	4.414583
19.01.2017	 13,830,226 	 6,349 	0.05%	4.409028
20.01.2017	 13,836,566 	 6,340 	0.05%	4.402778
21.01.2017	 13,842,897 	 6,331 	0.05%	4.396528
22.01.2017	 13,849,219 	 6,322 	0.05%	4.390278
23.01.2017	 13,855,533 	 6,314 	0.05%	4.384722
24.01.2017	 13,861,838 	 6,305 	0.05%	4.378472
25.01.2017	 13,868,135 	 6,296 	0.05%	4.372222
26.01.2017	 13,874,422 	 6,288 	0.05%	4.366667
27.01.2017	 13,880,702 	 6,279 	0.05%	4.360417
28.01.2017	 13,886,972 	 6,271 	0.05%	4.354861
29.01.2017	 13,893,234 	 6,262 	0.05%	4.348611
30.01.2017	 13,899,487 	 6,253 	0.04%	4.342361
31.01.2017	 13,905,732 	 6,245 	0.04%	4.336806
01.02.2017	 13,911,968 	 6,236 	0.04%	4.330556
02.02.2017	 13,918,196 	 6,228 	0.04%	4.325000
03.02.2017	 13,924,415 	 6,219 	0.04%	4.318750
04.02.2017	 13,930,625 	 6,210 	0.04%	4.312500
05.02.2017	 13,936,827 	 6,202 	0.04%	4.306944
06.02.2017	 13,943,021 	 6,193 	0.04%	4.300694
07.02.2017	 13,949,205 	 6,185 	0.04%	4.295139
08.02.2017	 13,955,382 	 6,176 	0.04%	4.288889
09.02.2017	 13,961,550 	 6,168 	0.04%	4.283333
10.02.2017	 13,967,709 	 6,159 	0.04%	4.277083
11.02.2017	 13,973,860 	 6,151 	0.04%	4.271528
12.02.2017	 13,980,003 	 6,143 	0.04%	4.265972
13.02.2017	 13,986,137 	 6,134 	0.04%	4.259722
14.02.2017	 13,992,263 	 6,126 	0.04%	4.254167
15.02.2017	 13,998,380 	 6,117 	0.04%	4.247917
16.02.2017	 14,004,489 	 6,109 	0.04%	4.242361
17.02.2017	 14,010,589 	 6,101 	0.04%	4.236806
18.02.2017	 14,016,682 	 6,092 	0.04%	4.230556
19.02.2017	 14,022,765 	 6,084 	0.04%	4.225000
20.02.2017	 14,028,841 	 6,075 	0.04%	4.218750
21.02.2017	 14,034,908 	 6,067 	0.04%	4.213194
22.02.2017	 14,040,967 	 6,059 	0.04%	4.207639
23.02.2017	 14,047,017 	 6,050 	0.04%	4.201389
24.02.2017	 14,053,059 	 6,042 	0.04%	4.195833
25.02.2017	 14,059,093 	 6,034 	0.04%	4.190278
26.02.2017	 14,065,118 	 6,026 	0.04%	4.184722
27.02.2017	 14,071,136 	 6,017 	0.04%	4.178472
28.02.2017	 14,077,145 	 6,009 	0.04%	4.172917
01.03.2017	 14,083,145 	 6,001 	0.04%	4.167361
02.03.2017	 14,089,138 	 5,992 	0.04%	4.161111
03.03.2017	 14,095,122 	 5,984 	0.04%	4.155556
04.03.2017	 14,101,098 	 5,976 	0.04%	4.150000
05.03.2017	 14,107,066 	 5,968 	0.04%	4.144444
06.03.2017	 14,113,026 	 5,960 	0.04%	4.138889
07.03.2017	 14,118,977 	 5,951 	0.04%	4.132639
08.03.2017	 14,124,920 	 5,943 	0.04%	4.127083
09.03.2017	 14,130,856 	 5,935 	0.04%	4.121528
10.03.2017	 14,136,782 	 5,927 	0.04%	4.115972
11.03.2017	 14,142,701 	 5,919 	0.04%	4.110417
12.03.2017	 14,148,612 	 5,911 	0.04%	4.104861
13.03.2017	 14,154,515 	 5,903 	0.04%	4.099306
14.03.2017	 14,160,409 	 5,894 	0.04%	4.093056
15.03.2017	 14,166,295 	 5,886 	0.04%	4.087500
16.03.2017	 14,172,174 	 5,878 	0.04%	4.081944
17.03.2017	 14,178,044 	 5,870 	0.04%	4.076389
18.03.2017	 14,183,906 	 5,862 	0.04%	4.070833
19.03.2017	 14,189,760 	 5,854 	0.04%	4.065278
20.03.2017	 14,195,606 	 5,846 	0.04%	4.059722
21.03.2017	 14,201,444 	 5,838 	0.04%	4.054167
22.03.2017	 14,207,274 	 5,830 	0.04%	4.048611
23.03.2017	 14,213,096 	 5,822 	0.04%	4.043056
24.03.2017	 14,218,910 	 5,814 	0.04%	4.037500
25.03.2017	 14,224,717 	 5,806 	0.04%	4.031944
26.03.2017	 14,230,515 	 5,798 	0.04%	4.026389
27.03.2017	 14,236,305 	 5,790 	0.04%	4.020833
28.03.2017	 14,242,087 	 5,782 	0.04%	4.015278
29.03.2017	 14,247,861 	 5,774 	0.04%	4.009722
30.03.2017	 14,253,627 	 5,766 	0.04%	4.004167
31.03.2017	 14,259,386 	 5,758 	0.04%	3.998611
01.04.2017	 14,265,136 	 5,750 	0.04%	3.993056
02.04.2017	 14,270,879 	 5,743 	0.04%	3.988194
03.04.2017	 14,276,613 	 5,735 	0.04%	3.982639
04.04.2017	 14,282,340 	 5,727 	0.04%	3.977083
05.04.2017	 14,288,059 	 5,719 	0.04%	3.971528
06.04.2017	 14,293,770 	 5,711 	0.04%	3.965972
07.04.2017	 14,299,474 	 5,703 	0.04%	3.960417
08.04.2017	 14,305,169 	 5,695 	0.04%	3.954861
09.04.2017	 14,310,857 	 5,688 	0.04%	3.950000
10.04.2017	 14,316,536 	 5,680 	0.04%	3.944444
11.04.2017	 14,322,208 	 5,672 	0.04%	3.938889
12.04.2017	 14,327,872 	 5,664 	0.04%	3.933333
13.04.2017	 14,333,529 	 5,656 	0.04%	3.927778
14.04.2017	 14,339,178 	 5,649 	0.04%	3.922917
15.04.2017	 14,344,818 	 5,641 	0.04%	3.917361
16.04.2017	 14,350,452 	 5,633 	0.04%	3.911806
17.04.2017	 14,356,077 	 5,625 	0.04%	3.906250
18.04.2017	 14,361,695 	 5,618 	0.04%	3.901389
19.04.2017	 14,367,305 	 5,610 	0.04%	3.895833
20.04.2017	 14,372,907 	 5,602 	0.04%	3.890278
21.04.2017	 14,378,501 	 5,595 	0.04%	3.885417
22.04.2017	 14,384,088 	 5,587 	0.04%	3.879861
23.04.2017	 14,389,667 	 5,579 	0.04%	3.874306
24.04.2017	 14,395,239 	 5,572 	0.04%	3.869444
25.04.2017	 14,400,803 	 5,564 	0.04%	3.863889
26.04.2017	 14,406,359 	 5,556 	0.04%	3.858333
27.04.2017	 14,411,908 	 5,549 	0.04%	3.853472
28.04.2017	 14,417,449 	 5,541 	0.04%	3.847917
29.04.2017	 14,422,982 	 5,533 	0.04%	3.842361
30.04.2017	 14,428,508 	 5,526 	0.04%	3.837500
01.05.2017	 14,434,026 	 5,518 	0.04%	3.831944
02.05.2017	 14,439,537 	 5,511 	0.04%	3.827083
03.05.2017	 14,445,040 	 5,503 	0.04%	3.821528
04.05.2017	 14,450,535 	 5,496 	0.04%	3.816667
05.05.2017	 14,456,023 	 5,488 	0.04%	3.811111
06.05.2017	 14,461,504 	 5,480 	0.04%	3.805556
07.05.2017	 14,466,977 	 5,473 	0.04%	3.800694
08.05.2017	 14,472,442 	 5,465 	0.04%	3.795139
09.05.2017	 14,477,900 	 5,458 	0.04%	3.790278
10.05.2017	 14,483,350 	 5,450 	0.04%	3.784722
11.05.2017	 14,488,793 	 5,443 	0.04%	3.779861
12.05.2017	 14,494,229 	 5,435 	0.04%	3.774306
13.05.2017	 14,499,657 	 5,428 	0.04%	3.769444
14.05.2017	 14,505,077 	 5,420 	0.04%	3.763889
15.05.2017	 14,510,490 	 5,413 	0.04%	3.759028
16.05.2017	 14,515,896 	 5,406 	0.04%	3.754167
17.05.2017	 14,521,294 	 5,398 	0.04%	3.748611
18.05.2017	 14,526,685 	 5,391 	0.04%	3.743750
19.05.2017	 14,532,068 	 5,383 	0.04%	3.738194
20.05.2017	 14,537,444 	 5,376 	0.04%	3.733333
21.05.2017	 14,542,813 	 5,369 	0.04%	3.728472
22.05.2017	 14,548,174 	 5,361 	0.04%	3.722917
23.05.2017	 14,553,528 	 5,354 	0.04%	3.718056
24.05.2017	 14,558,874 	 5,347 	0.04%	3.713194
25.05.2017	 14,564,214 	 5,339 	0.04%	3.707639
26.05.2017	 14,569,545 	 5,332 	0.04%	3.702778
27.05.2017	 14,574,870 	 5,325 	0.04%	3.697917
28.05.2017	 14,580,187 	 5,317 	0.04%	3.692361
29.05.2017	 14,585,497 	 5,310 	0.04%	3.687500
30.05.2017	 14,590,800 	 5,303 	0.04%	3.682639
31.05.2017	 14,596,095 	 5,295 	0.04%	3.677083
01.06.2017	 14,601,383 	 5,288 	0.04%	3.672222
02.06.2017	 14,606,664 	 5,281 	0.04%	3.667361
03.06.2017	 14,611,937 	 5,274 	0.04%	3.662500
04.06.2017	 14,617,204 	 5,266 	0.04%	3.656944
05.06.2017	 14,622,463 	 5,259 	0.04%	3.652083
06.06.2017	 14,627,715 	 5,252 	0.04%	3.647222
07.06.2017	 14,632,959 	 5,245 	0.04%	3.642361
08.06.2017	 14,638,197 	 5,237 	0.04%	3.636806
09.06.2017	 14,643,427 	 5,230 	0.04%	3.631944
10.06.2017	 14,648,650 	 5,223 	0.04%	3.627083
11.06.2017	 14,653,866 	 5,216 	0.04%	3.622222
12.06.2017	 14,659,075 	 5,209 	0.04%	3.617361
13.06.2017	 14,664,276 	 5,202 	0.04%	3.612500
14.06.2017	 14,669,471 	 5,194 	0.04%	3.606944
15.06.2017	 14,674,658 	 5,187 	0.04%	3.602083
16.06.2017	 14,679,838 	 5,180 	0.04%	3.597222
17.06.2017	 14,685,011 	 5,173 	0.04%	3.592361
18.06.2017	 14,690,177 	 5,166 	0.04%	3.587500
19.06.2017	 14,695,336 	 5,159 	0.04%	3.582639
20.06.2017	 14,700,488 	 5,152 	0.04%	3.577778
21.06.2017	 14,705,632 	 5,145 	0.03%	3.572917
22.06.2017	 14,710,770 	 5,138 	0.03%	3.568056
23.06.2017	 14,715,901 	 5,131 	0.03%	3.563194
24.06.2017	 14,721,024 	 5,124 	0.03%	3.558333
25.06.2017	 14,726,141 	 5,116 	0.03%	3.552778
26.06.2017	 14,731,250 	 5,109 	0.03%	3.547917
27.06.2017	 14,736,353 	 5,102 	0.03%	3.543056
28.06.2017	 14,741,448 	 5,095 	0.03%	3.538194
29.06.2017	 14,746,536 	 5,088 	0.03%	3.533333
30.06.2017	 14,751,618 	 5,081 	0.03%	3.528472

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 09:02:46 PM
Please note that the table is not exactly accurate both in historical or future part, but the deviation is very small (< 1 day) :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: wpalczynski on July 30, 2014, 09:06:53 PM
It gives a general idea which is great.  Thanks.

Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 09:02:46 PM
Please note that the table is not exactly accurate both in historical or future part, but the deviation is very small (< 1 day) :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: damashup on July 30, 2014, 10:00:14 PM
Some really useful numbers. Think I'll buy all the Monero I intend to buy now and check in again in one year's time, once the rate of emission has halved.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Wexlike on August 01, 2014, 03:18:15 PM
Just an interesting fact that a few people might have forgotten

Daily new coin generation for litecoin:
28800

Daily new coin generation for monero:
21916

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on August 01, 2014, 03:25:45 PM
Quote from: Wexlike on August 01, 2014, 03:18:15 PM
Just an interesting fact that a few people might have forgotten

Daily new coin generation for litecoin:
28800

Daily new coin generation for monero:
21916


And don't forget that Monero is dropping its block reward every day, Litecoin isn't.

I always bring up this stat when people say that the Monero reward isn't sustainable even now, that is pure FUD, it was sustainable from day 1 even if Monero were price over $20.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: luigi1111 on August 01, 2014, 07:35:34 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on August 01, 2014, 03:25:45 PM
Quote from: Wexlike on August 01, 2014, 03:18:15 PM
Just an interesting fact that a few people might have forgotten

Daily new coin generation for litecoin:
28800

Daily new coin generation for monero:
21916


And don't forget that Monero is dropping its block reward every day, Litecoin isn't.

I always bring up this stat when people say that the Monero reward isn't sustainable even now, that is pure FUD, it was sustainable from day 1 even if Monero were price over $20.

I don't agree with this. The market decides whether it's sustainable or not. If you have the buying interest of LTC, then sure it's sustainable at a similar price. Obviously that hasn't been the case so far.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 01, 2014, 08:04:36 PM
With Monero, because of its high inflation relative to existing # of coins, the market is quick to decide what is sustainable and what is not. Hence a very stable price that's oscillated only inside 1 order of magnitude, and centered around 0.00426, which is the price even as we speak.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on August 01, 2014, 10:32:32 PM
Quote from: Wexlike on August 01, 2014, 03:18:15 PM
Just an interesting fact that a few people might have forgotten

Daily new coin generation for litecoin:
28800

Daily new coin generation for monero:
21916

Monero has more sustainable value than Litecoin in my opinion.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 03, 2014, 12:22:35 PM
Moderator comment: The idea of this thread is that I could express my findings of Monero economics to interested readers, free of empty talk. So I will delete the offtopic comments if needed.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: digicoin on August 03, 2014, 07:01:20 PM
I do believe that XMR price is driven by real demand, not speculators, in the medium term (12 months). Is there any plan to promote XMR to darknet. Some carders I talk accept Litecoin or Bitcoin only

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Yololintian on August 03, 2014, 08:37:32 PM
Lots of selling on poloniex today. I'm wondering, how many monero are mined each day?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: binaryFate on August 03, 2014, 08:44:36 PM
Quote from: Yololintian on August 03, 2014, 08:37:32 PM
Lots of selling on poloniex today. I'm wondering, how many monero are mined each day?

Look at the white table at the top of this page, third column. About ~21K/day currently.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on August 03, 2014, 08:45:48 PM
Fact is, Monero is currently profitable to mine. Very profitable (IF your power is 10 cents or under)
That will end in 6 weeks with current trends.

But that leaves 6 weeks of strong buying pressure to hold the price above .00003.

We will see. I'm holding, personally.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on August 03, 2014, 09:15:47 PM
Quote from: digicoin on August 03, 2014, 07:01:20 PM
Is there any plan to promote XMR to darknet.
Forcing Darknet adoption, requires implementation of Multi-Sig-Escrow into Monero.

(Major) Dark Markets won't introduce/accept any coin without Multi-Sig-Escrow, as they all use MS-Escrow solutions for customer fund protection, against hacking, scamming, busts by LE, ...

It's not widely discussed on forums (for obv reasons) or advertised as important project goal, but I think its consensus in the XMR community, that XMR will be "Dark Market"-compatible (safe, easy handling/escrow/payment, trusted, ...).
So XMR will participate in the upcoming battle of the existing anon coins, to become the leading, dominant Dark Market coin.


To answer your question, when Monero (with all the needed features & ecosystem around) is ready and tested, in maybe 12 months. There will be an solid attempt to get XMR accepted and implemented at the leading major 3 till 4 Dark Markets (including informing DarkMarket community about XMR, ...), in the hope of becoming the leading DarkNet trading coin.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 12:33:41 AM
Quote from: statdude on August 03, 2014, 08:45:48 PM
Fact is, Monero is currently profitable to mine.

Only true for amortized kit.  With diff growing 1.7% daily I assume that about half of the kit is new r290x cards, about $50k worth daily.  Gotta be paid for.  Takes about 4 months minimum to do that.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: From Above on August 04, 2014, 12:35:13 AM
monero to the stars and the milkway

~CfA~

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Yololintian on August 04, 2014, 09:44:00 AM
Those walls on poloniex are really taking a hit today  :-\

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: shitaifan2013 on August 04, 2014, 10:34:39 AM
Quote from: Yololintian on August 04, 2014, 09:44:00 AM
Those walls on poloniex are really taking a hit today  :-\

yeah, cheap coins right now :) atm 0.00371 is hodling, but sell side is at an ath while buy side looks like an atl or close to that. fun times ahead!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 04, 2014, 11:49:08 AM
Quote from: shitaifan2013 on August 04, 2014, 10:34:39 AM
Quote from: Yololintian on August 04, 2014, 09:44:00 AM
Those walls on poloniex are really taking a hit today  :-\

yeah, cheap coins right now :) atm 0.00371 is hodling, but sell side is at an ath while buy side looks like an atl or close to that. fun times ahead!

Boredom reigns, the market just cannot handle stable price. Either it goes up, or it goes down. And both moves go parabolic in the end. If we break 0.0035 today, then the parabolic downside move (capitulation) is what is happening, and the likely reaction to such is that we go up next, towards the atvwa in 0.00426.

If 0.0035 is not broken, then the downtrend is still in force, but the channel is something like 0.0035-0.0043 anyway (or maybe 0.00345-0.0042 since it is constantly sloping down).

There is also the 0.00365 level, which could mark the 2nd Fib retracement from the July highs, and going back up from this level would indicate that the uptrend is holding, despite a very long retracement.

Anyway, since this is an Economics, and not a TA thread, what matters is how many coins you have, not so much at what price you bought them. Since the long-term XMR price has been relatively stable and distributed around the avg at 0.00426, buying at 10-20% discount is probably not a bad deal at all. Going overextended in an altcoin, (or Bitcoin, or anything) is not a wise strategy. Selling is warranted at this price only if you are overextended and cannot take it.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 03:55:01 PM
As long as my credit is good, I am a buyer long past the point of despair.  When I start to feel the fear and depression, I cheer myself up by buying more.  I take some amphetamine and a shot of whiskey, if that's what it takes. 

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist.  Just about the only thing that can give you a permanent loss is selling - especially forced sales from leverage.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: r0ach on August 04, 2014, 04:11:09 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 03:55:01 PM
Just about the only thing that can give you a permanent loss is selling - especially forced sales from leverage.

haha, I wonder if "that guy" that's all in on Monero with leverage actually exists.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on August 04, 2014, 04:53:14 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 12:33:41 AM
Quote from: statdude on August 03, 2014, 08:45:48 PM
Fact is, Monero is currently profitable to mine.

Only true for amortized kit.  With diff growing 1.7% daily I assume that about half of the kit is new r290x cards, about $50k worth daily.  Gotta be paid for.  Takes about 4 months minimum to do that.

As we just mentioned in the Trollbox...

Current breakeven for new GPU miners is 45+ months.

So, price is low, even factoring in for 10-20% botnets with lower marginal cost.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 04, 2014, 05:20:31 PM
Quote from: statdude on August 04, 2014, 04:53:14 PM
So, price is low, even factoring in for 10-20% botnets with lower marginal cost.

What's the fuss about botnets?

Economically they matter if and only if XMR is providing them a significantly better return than any other venture.

Is it really so?

If not, the gain is not attributable to XMR but is inherent to the botnet.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: saddambitcoin on August 04, 2014, 05:21:46 PM
Quote from: r0ach on August 04, 2014, 04:11:09 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 03:55:01 PM
Just about the only thing that can give you a permanent loss is selling - especially forced sales from leverage.

haha, I wonder if "that guy" that's all in on Monero with leverage actually exists.

could be someone leveraged in BTC and bought XMR with the BTC.

if anything, Monero is making me buy more BTC these days (with fiat) because i am overweight in XMR.  i am tempted to buy more but i will never sell XMR at these prices.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 07:32:01 PM
The only part that was relevant to economics got ignored:

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist. 

This may seem obvious to others, but I hadn't realized it so clearly before.  The same is true of BTC.  If you really want to build the coin, you have to bill in Monero.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 04, 2014, 08:06:09 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 07:32:01 PM
The only part that was relevant to economics got ignored:

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist. 

This may seem obvious to others, but I hadn't realized it so clearly before.  The same is true of BTC.  If you really want to build the coin, you have to bill in Monero.

This is exactly so.

Let's be realistic in that we are only about 8000 monerists. But let's be clever that we can still develop the economy ;)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: saddambitcoin on August 04, 2014, 08:28:00 PM
Quote from: rpietila on August 04, 2014, 08:06:09 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 07:32:01 PM
The only part that was relevant to economics got ignored:

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist. 

This may seem obvious to others, but I hadn't realized it so clearly before.  The same is true of BTC.  If you really want to build the coin, you have to bill in Monero.

This is exactly so.

Let's be realistic in that we are only about 8000 monerists. But let's be clever that we can still develop the economy ;)

Someone needs to purchase the first XMR pizza of course. Has it happened yet?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 04, 2014, 08:31:51 PM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 04, 2014, 08:28:00 PM
Someone needs to purchase the first XMR pizza of course. Has it happened yet?

10,000 mXMR for the first 2 pizzas delivered hot in the cigar room of Malla castle.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: luigi1111 on August 04, 2014, 09:13:11 PM
Quote from: rpietila on August 04, 2014, 08:31:51 PM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 04, 2014, 08:28:00 PM
Someone needs to purchase the first XMR pizza of course. Has it happened yet?

10,000 mXMR for the first 2 pizzas delivered hot in the cigar room of Malla castle.

There is already a pizza thread. Unfortunately, last I knew, most or all of the "winners" haven't come forward with the necessary info to complete the deal. (I'm the true winner of course, but not if no one will take my pizza! :))

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=634978.0

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: saddambitcoin on August 04, 2014, 10:11:13 PM
I am selling a synthesizer for Monero in this thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=724577.0

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: binaryFate on August 04, 2014, 10:13:00 PM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 04, 2014, 10:11:13 PM
I am selling a synthesizer for Monero in this thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=724577.0

Way to go! But you should sell *only* in XMR :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Zohann on August 04, 2014, 11:53:55 PM
Some Silver and Palladium Bullion available for sale with Monero listed as payment here : http://honolulu.craigslist.org/oah/clt/4603370962.html

Cheers!

Zohann

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: vuduchyld on August 05, 2014, 03:27:22 AM
Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 07:32:01 PM
The only part that was relevant to economics got ignored:

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist. 

This may seem obvious to others, but I hadn't realized it so clearly before.  The same is true of BTC.  If you really want to build the coin, you have to bill in Monero.


That's a great point in bold.  I wonder, though, if they have to be FORCED buyers...or if incented buyers count for something, as well.  For example, Dell is now taking BTC.  I bet they would take more if they offered a 5% (preferably more) discount on ALL BTC purchases (rather than the select few Alienware systems).  It wouldn't have been a force, but it sure would incent buyers to discharge their debt to Dell in BTC.

For Monero, the example that comes to mind is the XMR markets on Poloniex.  When they opened those markets, to me that was a pretty big statement.  They don't have, ya know, Dogecoin markets on Poloniex.  I moved XMR from two other exchanges just because of greater liquidity.  Not every coin (in fact not many coins at all) are behind the slash at Poloniex.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on August 05, 2014, 03:34:17 AM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 05, 2014, 03:27:22 AM
Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 07:32:01 PM
The only part that was relevant to economics got ignored:

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist.  

This may seem obvious to others, but I hadn't realized it so clearly before.  The same is true of BTC.  If you really want to build the coin, you have to bill in Monero.


That's a great point in bold.  I wonder, though, if they have to be FORCED buyers...or if incented buyers count for something, as well.  For example, Dell is now taking BTC.  I bet they would take more if they offered a 5% (preferably more) discount on ALL BTC purchases (rather than the select few Alienware systems).  It wouldn't have been a force, but it sure would incent buyers to discharge their debt to Dell in BTC.

For Monero, the example that comes to mind is the XMR markets on Poloniex.  When they opened those markets, to me that was a pretty big statement.  They don't have, ya know, Dogecoin markets on Poloniex.  I moved XMR from two other exchanges just because of greater liquidity.  Not every coin (in fact not many coins at all) are behind the slash at Poloniex.

I agree with you, there don't need to be forced buyers, just consistent buyers. Because there sure are consistent sellers (miners). To balance there needs to be some regular, ongoing buying for some reason other than speculation. I would count speculating on other coins (i.e. Poloniex situation) in that mix, although it is still speculation, and I'm not sure that counts as consistent buying unless interest in speculating on those other coins is growing.

Otherwise you are fully relying on speculators to do all the buying, and that likely does imply higher volatility.




Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: vuduchyld on August 05, 2014, 04:06:11 AM
I suppose I should start offering clients of my small business valuation service the option to pay me in XMR with a hefty discount.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Anotheranonlol on August 05, 2014, 05:54:53 AM
Quote from: aminorex on August 05, 2014, 04:38:08 AM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 05, 2014, 04:06:11 AM
I suppose I should start offering clients of my small business valuation service the option to pay me in XMR with a hefty discount.

Hmm.. I am a contract worker.  Actually, a statutory employee in the U.S. at this point, but in fact on contract.  I can switch to PFTE if I wish to do so.  This would cut out an agency middle-man, who has been raking in $150/diem for my head, doing nothing whatsoever but trans-billing, since 2008.

Since I have an option here, I might exercise it by submitting to the agency an ultimatum:  I get paid in XMR or I terminate the contract and go permanent full-time, thus cutting them out.  That would mean they have to buy USD 1200 in XMR every non-holiday week-day, forever -- but they get to keep the $150/diem rake.

It also means I would quickly become a net seller of XMR.

I rather like the exercise part. I rather dislike the forces sales part.  Hmm...


Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 03:55:01 PM
As long as my credit is good, I am a buyer long past the point of despair.  When I start to feel the fear and depression, I cheer myself up by buying more.  I take some amphetamine and a shot of whiskey, if that's what it takes.  

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist.  Just about the only thing that can give you a permanent loss is selling - especially forced sales from leverage.

Do you get paid in XMR for this kind of fanatical posting too? a lot of words to say very little.
XMR is a decent alt-coin but please.. hardly warrants talk like this yet.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nioc on August 05, 2014, 06:25:51 AM
Quote from: Anotheranonlol on August 05, 2014, 05:54:53 AM
Quote from: aminorex on August 05, 2014, 04:38:08 AM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 05, 2014, 04:06:11 AM
I suppose I should start offering clients of my small business valuation service the option to pay me in XMR with a hefty discount.

Hmm.. I am a contract worker.  Actually, a statutory employee in the U.S. at this point, but in fact on contract.  I can switch to PFTE if I wish to do so.  This would cut out an agency middle-man, who has been raking in $150/diem for my head, doing nothing whatsoever but trans-billing, since 2008.

Since I have an option here, I might exercise it by submitting to the agency an ultimatum:  I get paid in XMR or I terminate the contract and go permanent full-time, thus cutting them out.  That would mean they have to buy USD 1200 in XMR every non-holiday week-day, forever -- but they get to keep the $150/diem rake.

It also means I would quickly become a net seller of XMR.

I rather like the exercise part. I rather dislike the forces sales part.  Hmm...


Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 03:55:01 PM
As long as my credit is good, I am a buyer long past the point of despair.  When I start to feel the fear and depression, I cheer myself up by buying more.  I take some amphetamine and a shot of whiskey, if that's what it takes.  

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist.  Just about the only thing that can give you a permanent loss is selling - especially forced sales from leverage.

Do you get paid in XMR for this kind of fanatical posting too? a lot of words to say very little.
XMR is a decent alt-coin but please.. hardly warrants talk like this yet.

Obviously aminorex thinks XMR is more than a decent alt-coin.  You may think his writing is fluff but then again you would probably think a Silkie is merely fluff.  His writing actually exposes himself quite a bit.  Maybe you just don't like right clicking his words.  For me right clicking is always exciting.

Oh no you say, not another convoluted poster.

I don't pay or get paid.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 05, 2014, 07:12:38 AM
If I seem to be advocating XMR, it's because I am.  I think there is no freedom without privacy, and XMR is one of the best defenses technology has ever offered against the inhumane oppressions which technological society has created.  I put my money where my mouth is, so I will gain from the appreciation in value which I strongly anticipate will be found in Monero over the long haul.

Q.v., Since June 24 difficulty has been rising about 1.7% daily.  Emission is currently declining a little faster than 0.8% daily.  Compounding these factors over the course of 1 month,  we arrive at a factor of 2x increase in  the ratio cost-of-mining/supply-mined.

Monero will be worth twice as much, one month from today, by that metric, using neutral statistical assumptions consistent with empirical observation.

Personally, I think anyone selling mined XMR (unless selling during an upside short-term outlier, to buy back more during a reversion or reversal) is incredibly dense.  Probably they are just mining monero because it offers the best ROI, and have no clue what the coin actually is.  If they knew, they would know better.

I'm guessing that a miner education campaign would go a long way towards stabilizing price at a higher level.  Therefore I will fight any miner education campaign tooth and nail, to widen and extend my accumulation window.

EDIT: however, my teeth are expensive, and my nails are trim, so I should arrange to retire from the fight early.  If I vowed to fight with firearms, steel, dimethyl mercury, or nukes, it should be taken more seriously.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: cAPSLOCK on August 05, 2014, 07:23:04 AM
It was interesting to me to see today when monero made it's current attempt at a bottom there were several of us in the poloniex trollbox.  I can only assume some of you were there for the same reason as I. ;)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 05, 2014, 09:32:12 AM
Quote from: cAPSLOCK on August 05, 2014, 07:23:04 AM
It was interesting to me to see today when monero made it's current attempt at a bottom there were several of us in the poloniex trollbox.  I can only assume some of you were there for the same reason as I. ;)

Starting to look like a very flat bottom.  21 hours now?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 06, 2014, 07:02:26 AM
Quote from: monero
2. We've only recently started tracking our download stats (since July 15th), and we thought we'd share with you some download stats for Monero over the past 3 weeks. Our most popular download has been our blockchain bootstrap, which has seen 41 425 completed downloads in 3 weeks, around 74tb of traffic usage! Leading the pack on these downloads is Windows with around 78.2%, followed by OS X with 14.5%, and the remaining 7.3% snagged by Linux. The client downloads are quite interesting, too - of a total of 15 000 downloads in 3 weeks, Windows again grabbed 78.4%, OS X only grabbing 9%, and Linux grabbing a surprising 12.6%! This obviously excludes those that clone the github repo and compile, which is the majority of Linux users and OS X users (thanks to sammy007's Homebrew recipe). We'd like to thank the donations we've received thus far - it goes directly to many things, including covering costs like the bandwidth provision to help bootstrap new users.

Monero devs have recently published the download stats for the last weeks, and these support markedly higher adoption than the previous consensus estimate of 8,000.

I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past :)).

So if we take the blockchain bootstrap downloads, the total number of users should be around 14,000.

For client downloads, we are talking perhaps about 17,500 / 6 new users in 3 weeks, which would be 3,000. (15,000 downloads + 2,500 compiled, divided by 3 and further divided by 2 because some of them just go to existing users anyway).

Then there is the change in the exchange accounts that do not have outside wallet at all. This is probably not large, because 3 weeks have been a general downtrend. But I'd still estimate that it has gone up a little because there's more exchanges now. Like 500-1,000.

All in all, my very rough calculation (method 1) gives 14,000, and (method 2) gives 8000 + 3000 + 500 = 11,500.


A very rough average of these methods is 12,500 current owners.

- Since the last calculation in 2014-7-17, the number has grown by 4,500 (56%).
 
- The internal growth rate has been 2.26% during the period, compared to 5.45% all-time-average of XMR (and 0.6% of BTC since 2010-1-1)

- Since the BTC/XMR has been in a decline during this period, the average stash has gone from 267 XMR to 207 XMR, and its BTC equivalent value from BTC1.35 to BTC0.78. Both have been in a secular downtrend and the recent figures are all-time-lows.

- BTC0.78 is only $450, and declining. This is at odds with Metcalfe's Law that says that the average goes up when adoption goes up.

- Inflation is 21,8kXMR == BTC82. Growth of userbase is 275/day. If we assume that each new user buys for $200 (BTC0.35), the new users will extinguish 118% of the supply. Yes, it has already been the case for 3 weeks that new users buy more than the whole mining output.

- In 30 days, given current growth of userbase (2.26%/day), and decline of inflation (-0.19%/day), the new buying will account for 244% of the supply. This is in only 30 days - the situation will be more out-of-sync when more time passes.

- That all newcomers get their coins + the price has even been in a downtrend, is only possible because of existing owners net selling. Since I know quite a lot of existing owners that have been net buyers, the rest of the pack has to have been selling with both hands to account for both the newcomers and the accumulating whales. (As per my convention, it does not matter who the whales are and if they have bought or mined, and with what equipment - if they do not sell 100%, they are accumulating, and withholding coins from the market, indirectly causing the speculators to sell more).

- When I wrote my last speculation update hardly more than 24 hours ago spelling continuing capitulation, I did not have the access to the information that Monero adoption is actually growing in the last weeks despite the downtrend in price. These numbers really made it! If Monero had 8000 users then and the growth for 1 more year was 0.6% per day, similar to bitcoin, it would have 70,000 users. But with 2.26% growth...................29 million users. This might be a good investment or hedge with some of your bitcoin. At least Bitcoinworld people can always do it in 5 minutes and no ID. This is not to be underestimated.

- I mean, for me there is not much of a difference if a coin has 50% more or less users now. But if it has 300 times more users in one year, it is probably at least 10 times more valuable right now than the current trading range we are in.



To compile and process this information takes a lot of time and I am not getting paid, neither I mind, since I would have done it anyway for my own purposes. I see the conclusions from the nice tables and graphs from my screen. But you don't. The significance of the things presented here is easily missed without seeing the graphs. That is however too much to ask from me. There is an initiative that I might be teamworking with somebody who polishes my important posts and embellishes them with pics. If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 06, 2014, 08:00:33 AM
Quote from: rpietila on August 06, 2014, 07:02:26 AM

There is an initiative that I might be teamworking with somebody who polishes my important posts and embellishes them with pics. If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.

*ding*

This sounds valuable to me.  I will be AFK for a while to sleep and do a fair day's work for my employer, but would like to discuss how I can help make this data beautiful and accessible for the community.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Anotheranonlol on August 06, 2014, 08:07:07 AM
Quote from: aminorex on August 06, 2014, 08:00:33 AM
Quote from: rpietila on August 06, 2014, 07:02:26 AM

There is an initiative that I might be teamworking with somebody who polishes my important posts and embellishes them with pics. If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.

*ding*

This sounds valuable to me.  I will be AFK for a while to sleep and do a fair day's work for my employer, but would like to discuss how I can help make this data beautiful and accessible for the community.



+1

I do intend on furnishing Risto's statistics with the sexy charts they deserve. This will be a non-trivial contribution and one which will be surely appreciated by the followers.  I am away on important business with a client, alas I will not divulge further information surrounding that here, but it's concerning XMR and should benefit any net buyers.

For now  I have one I prepared earlier which I will share with our dear subscribers without further ado.  

https://i.imgur.com/RaDpzcn.png

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Melbustus on August 06, 2014, 08:08:46 AM
Quote from: rpietila on August 06, 2014, 07:02:26 AM


... If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.


It does.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 06, 2014, 01:23:44 PM
Once again, a possible distribution of the moneros:

Code:
		12500	207	2 590 177	100 %
at least	xmr	people	average	total	percent
at least	1024	234	6937	1623321	63 %
at least	512	257	708	181 981	7 %
at least	256	565	351	198 297	8 %
at least	128	1131	177	200 179	8 %
at least	64	2035	89	181 073	7 %
at least	32	2646	46	121 931	5 %
at least	16	2443	23	57 057	2 %
at least	8	1696	12	19 812	1 %
at least	4	848	6	4 987	0 %
less than 	4	645	2	1 539	0 %

Because there is no direct data to be found, this is based on:
- the number of moneros (public)
- the number of users (recently estimated based on data, see prev post)
- estimation that power law holds, which means, among others, that 1% owns 50%
- due to information found during recent attempts to compile a richlist, extra coins are added to the top 3% (this can be "democratic" if the coins are found in the 1000-20000 XMR segment or "top-heavy" if they belong to ones owning 20000+ XMR)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: MoneroMooo on August 06, 2014, 06:35:21 PM
Assuming 2.26% daily growth sustained for a year seems outrageously high, no ?

You are apparently comparing values obtained using two different methodologies. While the method used for the second one seems more accurate, have you tried estimating current number of users now the same way as when you did the previous time ?

Also, it would not surprise me that Monero would see a higher rate of growth at start compared with bitcoin, as bitcoin did not have the "bitcoin is the new... something" effect that monero currently enjoys. So there may be a lot of people on the lookout and ready to jump early on Monero, while the same rough type of people would have go more gradually onto bitcoin, not driven by a perceived sense of urgency to get in in time. Just thinking about it here, not based on data.

On the other hand, it's also possible that (part of) these people on the lookout would add up onto the typical bitcoin-y adoption curve, rather than "move downtime" on it.

It was a very interesting read, thank you for sharing.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on August 06, 2014, 07:31:38 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 06, 2014, 08:00:33 AM
Quote from: rpietila on August 06, 2014, 07:02:26 AM

There is an initiative that I might be teamworking with somebody who polishes my important posts and embellishes them with pics. If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.

*ding*

This sounds valuable to me.  I will be AFK for a while to sleep and do a fair day's work for my employer, but would like to discuss how I can help make this data beautiful and accessible for the community.



Aminorex, get to it buddy, XMR is your new employer  ;D.

Here's a very ugly attempt of my own from rpiet's data.

Hopefully someone finds it useful. It attempts to measure price versus breakeven mining sell price in XMR/BTC. According to this, XMR is cheap right now.

https://i.imgur.com/kylCft2.png


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: parker928 on August 06, 2014, 09:37:57 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 05, 2014, 07:12:38 AM
If I seem to be advocating XMR, it's because I am.  I think there is no freedom without privacy, and XMR is one of the best defenses technology has ever offered against the inhumane oppressions which technological society has created.  I put my money where my mouth is, so I will gain from the appreciation in value which I strongly anticipate will be found in Monero over the long haul.



I'm guessing that a miner education campaign would go a long way towards stabilizing price at a higher level.  Therefore I will fight any miner education campaign tooth and nail, to widen and extend my accumulation window.

EDIT: however, my teeth are expensive, and my nails are trim, so I should arrange to retire from the fight early.  If I vowed to fight with firearms, steel, dimethyl mercury, or nukes, it should be taken more seriously.


I agree 100% miner education campaign would be great. Excellent idea

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on August 06, 2014, 09:52:30 PM
Quote from: statdude on August 06, 2014, 07:31:38 PM
It attempts to measure price versus breakeven mining sell price in XMR/BTC. According to this, XMR is cheap right now.

It would be helpful to state your assumptions (GPU cost, power cost, etc.)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: darlidada on August 07, 2014, 10:12:42 PM
Quote from: Melbustus on August 06, 2014, 08:08:46 AM
Quote from: rpietila on August 06, 2014, 07:02:26 AM


... If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.


It does.

We're lucky to have you Rpietila. Thanks again for sharing your work with us!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: digicoin on August 11, 2014, 09:57:39 AM
Quote from: smooth on August 06, 2014, 09:52:30 PM
Quote from: statdude on August 06, 2014, 07:31:38 PM
It attempts to measure price versus breakeven mining sell price in XMR/BTC. According to this, XMR is cheap right now.

It would be helpful to state your assumptions (GPU cost, power cost, etc.)


/me curious too. Please publish your data

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on August 11, 2014, 05:45:09 PM
do you guys have an idea how to measure the diffusion/ distribution of xmr OUTSIDE of bitcointalk - I mean this baby is libertarians dream and I have the feeling that it is almost unknown outside of bitcointalk.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on August 11, 2014, 07:40:32 PM
Sure, guys:

-Had to chance my assumptions a bit as I've had some trouble getting the correct hash/watt ratio. I've found 2.45 hash/watt is relatively a good estimate based on my research (Example: Miner getting 3660 h/s from rig for about 1500 watts)

So:
-2.45 Hash/Watt (this may have been higher a few weeks ago, or for miners on average. It's simply based on some examples of 6x R9-290 rigs as of 2 weeks ago)
-93% after fees/orphans
-0.086 power cost - about as low as you can go, if you're the one footing the bill

Everything else is simply based on the blockchain stats available.

Here is the new chart.

https://i.imgur.com/0muYcDU.png


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Dotto on August 11, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
The XMR price is performing pretty bad, as you know, it has retraced around 70% in the last month. Do you have some rational, abstract or generalizing clue of what's happening?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on August 11, 2014, 09:09:56 PM
Quote from: Dotto on August 11, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
The XMR price is performing pretty bad, as you know, it has retraced around 70% in the last month. Do you have some rational, abstract or generalizing clue of what's happening?

It's basically a matter of demand vs supply.

Demand and supply are currently pretty closely balanced. However, demand will hopefully increase, and supply should decrease, as designed with the block reward. The only way supply would increase would be if miners left Monero faster than the negative effect on supply of the decreasing block reward.

That won't happen unless interest drastically drops, causing price to decline, causing miners to leave for more profitable coins.

Essentially, demand drives everything as far as I can tell. Fortunately, daily demand for XMR only has to stay flat for the price to increase as block reward decreases, so it has an inherent advantage vs supply.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 11, 2014, 09:13:26 PM
Quote from: Dotto on August 11, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
The XMR price is performing pretty bad, as you know, it has retraced around 70% in the last month. Do you have some rational, abstract or generalizing clue of what's happening?

Yes, quite much indeed, as I spend (up to) hours daily on the subject.

A short description suffices since this is the last thing before sleep today: It is going in waves, and the volatility is decreasing. If we make a higher low, which is quite probable after 0.00231, we are on track to higher prices. Buy low, sell high (if at all). I would consider now we are "low" since the all time average price is about 0.00410.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: equipoise on August 11, 2014, 10:13:45 PM
<suspicious>
Quote from: rpietila on August 11, 2014, 09:13:26 PM
Quote from: Dotto on August 11, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
The XMR price is performing pretty bad, as you know, it has retraced around 70% in the last month. Do you have some rational, abstract or generalizing clue of what's happening?

Yes, quite much indeed, as I spend (up to) hours daily on the subject.

A short description suffices since this is the last thing before sleep today: It is going in waves, and the volatility is decreasing. If we make a higher low, which is quite probable after 0.00231, we are on track to higher prices. Buy low, sell high (if at all). I would consider now we are "low" since the all time average price is about 0.00410.
I sold XMR two times in previous lows. It'll go lower and lower before I sell.
</suspicious>
Edit: <suspicious> tags added to all the conversation.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: vuduchyld on August 12, 2014, 06:37:47 PM
Quote from: Dotto on August 11, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
The XMR price is performing pretty bad, as you know, it has retraced around 70% in the last month. Do you have some rational, abstract or generalizing clue of what's happening?

I'd say that the entire altcoin market is performing pretty badly.  This last week has been brutal.  If you take out BTC and just look at the alt cap (or most subsets of the cap that I track), alts are down 20-25%.  I would at least take, as a data point, that Monero has held up an awful lot better over the last week than the market.  Could be that, as has been pointed out, the current price is reasonably inexpensive compared to value.

Your mileage may vary.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: JohnyMonero on August 13, 2014, 12:17:36 PM
Quote from: statdude on August 11, 2014, 07:40:32 PM
Here is the new chart.
The graphics is so amazing that nobody can doubt about XMR profitability!!!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: mineshaft on August 13, 2014, 12:39:13 PM
Quote from: JohnyMonero on August 13, 2014, 12:17:36 PM
Quote from: statdude on August 11, 2014, 07:40:32 PM
Here is the new chart.
The graphics is so amazing that nobody can doubt about XMR profitability!!!
It was obvious even without graphics!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: bingopoint on August 13, 2014, 12:53:32 PM
Monero economy is good to the industry. I suggest everyone to join our community!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Achile$ on August 13, 2014, 01:11:22 PM
Quote from: bingopoint on August 13, 2014, 12:53:32 PM
Monero economy is good to the industry. I suggest everyone to join our community!
So if you are reading this post and you are not an XMR user you should download XMR wallet right now.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Globb0 on August 14, 2014, 07:56:30 AM
Following this thread with interest.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 14, 2014, 08:59:41 AM
Just wanted to show you guys some math about what are the dynamics when XMR overtakes LTC as the second marketcap coin. As usual, the post is many points and they contain math but that's what I do.

Currently:

LTC's supply 31.1M, price $4.85, mktcap with current # of coins $151M.

XMR's supply 2.8M, price $1.72, mktcap with current # of coins $4.8M.


- Using 3 methods of calculating XMR internal growth rate (difference between estd number of users - calculated in both cases with 2 methods), price attractor (aminorex) and growth of the subscriptions of missives, the growth currently seems to be 2.2-2.5% per day.

- This growth is long-term unsustainable because it would lead to 30 million users in a year, which does not seem possible in cryptospace given BTC's slow progress and the fact that others are behind.

- So we must make a much toned-down assumption that the growth is only 1.2% per day during the time until LTC is conquered. Even this would lead to 1 million users in one year so albeit less than the current rate, it is still long-term unachievable so far.

- LTC price is continuously dropping, and this trend is expected to continue at the rate of -1.1% per day as it has been since December. The dropping price does not really let so many people exit LTC totally, so we expect that it retains the userbase of 100,000 (this may be quite off - I don't have much data to research the subject that does not interest me).

- XMR inflation must be taken into account. In the near term, it is going from 0.8% per day to 0.4%. We use the average, 0.6%.

- There is a coefficient related to Metcalfe law, which means basically that when the coin grows bigger, the average value stored per user grows bigger also. This leads to the observation that price grows faster than userbase. In BTC, the effect is seemingly small, 0.1% per day, so let's add it here also.

Result: XMR is raking internal growth at 1.2%, minus inflation -0.6%, plus network effects 0.1%, total +0.7% per diem.
LTC is losing -1.1% per diem. Difference is 1.8%-points.


LTC starts with a head start of 31 times bigger market cap.

After making the calculations, it seems that it takes 192 days for XMR to overtake LTC. Yes, much, in a way, but it is only 2015-2-22.

Furthermore, above we were actually comparing prices, and not marketcaps. XMR marketcap would actually be higher because of its higher inflation during this time. That would be a bit extra work and likely tilt the result to January.

I smell a bet here.... ;D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: btc2nxt on August 14, 2014, 01:20:29 PM
LTC
 4.85*(1-0.011)^192
=0.58

Monero
 1.72*(1+0.007)^192
=6.56
 ???

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on August 14, 2014, 01:23:13 PM
Quote from: rpietila on August 14, 2014, 08:59:41 AM
I smell a bet here.... ;D

have to think about it - if I only use xmr it is quite a win win :D

edit: maybe we can do it - give me 2-3 days. I do not have ltc but a few xmr. I am also an uberbull regarding xmr but I think this estimation is too optimistic

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: iourzzz on August 14, 2014, 09:55:37 PM
Quote from: nakaone on August 14, 2014, 01:23:13 PM
Quote from: rpietila on August 14, 2014, 08:59:41 AM
I smell a bet here.... ;D

have to think about it - if I only use xmr it is quite a win win :D

edit: maybe we can do it - give me 2-3 days. I do not have ltc but a few xmr. I am also an uberbull regarding xmr but I think this estimation is too optimistic

I have few friends who still hold ltc for a long time and have a hope it will rise again someday. After short introduction to XMR and showing them few posts from this thread they have started to buy and thinking about exiting ltc.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: fran2k on August 15, 2014, 03:11:01 AM
Quote from: rpietila on August 14, 2014, 08:59:41 AM
Just wanted to show you guys some math about what are the dynamics when XMR overtakes LTC as the second marketcap coin. As usual, the post is many points and they contain math but that's what I do.

Currently:

LTC's supply 31.1M, price $4.85, mktcap with current # of coins $151M.

XMR's supply 2.8M, price $1.72, mktcap with current # of coins $4.8M.


- Using 3 methods of calculating XMR internal growth rate (difference between estd number of users - calculated in both cases with 2 methods), price attractor (aminorex) and growth of the subscriptions of missives, the growth currently seems to be 2.2-2.5% per day.

- This growth is long-term unsustainable because it would lead to 30 million users in a year, which does not seem possible in cryptospace given BTC's slow progress and the fact that others are behind.

- So we must make a much toned-down assumption that the growth is only 1.2% per day during the time until LTC is conquered. Even this would lead to 1 million users in one year so albeit less than the current rate, it is still long-term unachievable so far.

- LTC price is continuously dropping, and this trend is expected to continue at the rate of -1.1% per day as it has been since December. The dropping price does not really let so many people exit LTC totally, so we expect that it retains the userbase of 100,000 (this may be quite off - I don't have much data to research the subject that does not interest me).

- XMR inflation must be taken into account. In the near term, it is going from 0.8% per day to 0.4%. We use the average, 0.6%.

- There is a coefficient related to Metcalfe law, which means basically that when the coin grows bigger, the average value stored per user grows bigger also. This leads to the observation that price grows faster than userbase. In BTC, the effect is seemingly small, 0.1% per day, so let's add it here also.

Result: XMR is raking internal growth at 1.2%, minus inflation -0.6%, plus network effects 0.1%, total +0.7% per diem.
LTC is losing -1.1% per diem. Difference is 1.8%-points.


LTC starts with a head start of 31 times bigger market cap.

After making the calculations, it seems that it takes 192 days for XMR to overtake LTC. Yes, much, in a way, but it is only 2015-2-22.

Furthermore, above we were actually comparing prices, and not marketcaps. XMR marketcap would actually be higher because of its higher inflation during this time. That would be a bit extra work and likely tilt the result to January.

I smell a bet here.... ;D

Seems very optimistic. But surely LTC has not offering nothing new, now just another altcoin. And XMR clearly has new stuff in the cryptos market. For me is a problem that the first CryptoNight coin had such an horrible launch (Bytecoin).

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 15, 2014, 07:36:26 AM
Quote from: btc2nxt on August 14, 2014, 01:20:29 PM
LTC
 4.85*(1-0.011)^192
=0.58

Monero
 1.72*(1+0.007)^192
=6.56
 ???

the comparison is marketcaps. ltc has 6.5 times the number of coins now.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: thefunkybits on August 15, 2014, 07:56:05 AM
Quote from: fran2k on August 15, 2014, 03:11:01 AM
Seems very optimistic. But surely LTC has not offering nothing new, now just another altcoin. And XMR clearly has new stuff in the cryptos market. For me is a problem that the first CryptoNight coin had such an horrible launch (Bytecoin).

Litecoin & Monero are similar in that they both took a shitcoin idea (LTC- Tenebrix\XMR- Bytecoin), optimized the code and marketed a little better with a fair mining launch. LTC was "innovative" and new and has been a success for the past couple years and I think rpietila is on the right track with thinking that XMR can potentially fill that gap in the years to come

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 15, 2014, 02:59:19 PM
Quote from: thefunkybits on August 15, 2014, 07:56:05 AM
Quote from: fran2k on August 15, 2014, 03:11:01 AM
Seems very optimistic. But surely LTC has not offering nothing new, now just another altcoin. And XMR clearly has new stuff in the cryptos market. For me is a problem that the first CryptoNight coin had such an horrible launch (Bytecoin).

Litecoin & Monero are similar in that they both took a shitcoin idea (LTC- Tenebrix\XMR- Bytecoin), optimized the code and marketed a little better with a fair mining launch. LTC was "innovative" and new and has been a success for the past couple years and I think rpietila is on the right track with thinking that XMR can potentially fill that gap in the years to come

This is bound to be controversial on a bitcoin forum.  It took me months to fully come to terms with the notion.  At this point I am quite convinced:  A privacy-enabled crypto will displace bitcoin.  Of all potential candidates for this role, only Monero has leadership qualities, and indeed has an actual, realized marketcap leadership among its peers - as many predicted long before it became manifest.  At present it leads among its peers by roughtly the same factor that LTC currently leads XMR.  And BTC leads LTC by roughly the same factor again.

What proportion of your transactions actually benefit from being made part of a permanent public record?  I can think of none, with the possible exception of payments in full for real estate or other titled goods.  As a liquidity vehicle, monero is fundamentally superior to bitcoin, because it is better adapted to the needs of economic transactions as we know them today, by virtue of supporting privacy. Being better fit for the niche, it will out-compete bitcoin in the long run, ceteris paribus.  There is yet no "moat" adequate to defend in this case.  What is left to be done is more like eating an elephant.  It is a large task, but with patience and persistence it is entirely achievable, one bite at a time.

It is easier to say that XMR can displace LTC.  It will be more popular.  Indeed, it will necessarily happen first.  But to be fully honest, I have to say it's a low ambition for XMR.  Certainly it is one which would benefit me greatly.  Still, it is a very low ambition - and even that will take many, many mouthfuls of elephant to accomplish.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: TooDumbForBitcoin on August 15, 2014, 03:43:39 PM
Quote
A privacy-enabled crypto will displace bitcoin.

A low-brow response:

1.  GMAIL reads your email.  Top email provider for last three years.

2.  I was on Linkedin yesterday, and found among my connections a psychiatrist I visited 6 years ago!  How the fuck did they get that?  Linkedin is tops in something.  (When Linkedin first came out I thought it was about kilns for a couple years).

My low-brow conclusion from this vast data set:  Low-brows go "huh?" about privacy.  

My assertion:  there are more low-brows than not.  

EDIT:  Facebook






Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 15, 2014, 03:47:19 PM
Quote from: TooDumbForBitcoin on August 15, 2014, 03:43:39 PM
My assertion:  there are more low-brows than not.  

Mine:  They don't have the money power.  These are people who willingly sacrifice their power for candy.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: ArticMine on August 15, 2014, 09:58:15 PM
Quote from: rpietila on August 15, 2014, 07:36:26 AM
Quote from: btc2nxt on August 14, 2014, 01:20:29 PM
LTC
 4.85*(1-0.011)^192
=0.58

Monero
 1.72*(1+0.007)^192
=6.56
 ???

the comparison is marketcaps. ltc has 6.5 times the number of coins now.

Which begs the questions: How will XMR/XBT perform in the next XBT/USD boom when compared to the performance of LTC/XBT during the last XBT/USD boom in November 2013? Is using past LTC/XBT performance as a possible indicator of future XMR/XBT performance here possible or even relevant?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: iourzzz on August 16, 2014, 06:29:21 PM
Quote from: ArticMine on August 15, 2014, 09:58:15 PM
Quote from: rpietila on August 15, 2014, 07:36:26 AM
Quote from: btc2nxt on August 14, 2014, 01:20:29 PM
LTC
 4.85*(1-0.011)^192
=0.58

Monero
 1.72*(1+0.007)^192
=6.56
 ???

the comparison is marketcaps. ltc has 6.5 times the number of coins now.

Which begs the questions: How will XMR/XBT perform in the next XBT/USD boom when compared to the performance of LTC/XBT during the last XBT/USD boom in November 2013? Is using past LTC/XBT performance as a possible indicator of future XMR/XBT performance here possible or even relevant?

I think it's probably possible scenario. But we should take into account that LTC was quite artificially pumped by few concerned influential persons. LTC is loosing its momentum as well as some other quite strong alts. Monero in opposite is getting more and more attention. So it's easy to assume that probably some of the same figures will try to make use of Monero to achieve similar goals and will catalyze its internal ignition with much stronger long time potential based on its real benefits.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 16, 2014, 06:51:36 PM
Has anyone attempted to estimate how many coins have been dumped (vs. mined) since distribution began?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: darlidada on August 16, 2014, 07:13:46 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 16, 2014, 06:51:36 PM
Has anyone attempted to estimate how many coins have been dumped (vs. mined) since distribution began?


Not sure if it can be of any worth, but ive calculated the volume for every month and the top to bottom volume:

May volume : 5027
June volume: 8669
July volume: 5982
August volume: 1222 (so far)


The last 3 top to bottom volume:  5432 (from 8 to 1,75) 5178 (from 10 to 2,3) 6081 (from 5,8 to today)


did this very quickly, numbers can be off by ~10 btcs

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: ArticMine on August 16, 2014, 07:35:12 PM
Quote from: iourzzz on August 16, 2014, 06:29:21 PM
...
I think it's probably possible scenario. But we should take into account that LTC was quite artificially pumped by few concerned influential persons. LTC is loosing its momentum as well as some other quite strong alts. Monero in opposite is getting more and more attention. So it's easy to assume that probably some of the same figures will try to make use of Monero to achieve similar goals and will catalyze its internal ignition with much stronger long time potential based on its real benefits.

I prefer to take a longer term view and doubt that LTC was artificially pumped to coincide with XBT/USD booms and a similar pump was applied to NMC and PPC. I include a quote from another thread that show the market behaviour LTC, NMC, PPC and possibly DOGE during past XBT/USD booms. This is pure market speculation at its best or worst depending on the point of view, across more than one XBT/USD boom and several alt-coins. Nxtbig adds some very useful insight with a similar phenomenon observed in gold mining stocks.

Quote from: Nxtblg on August 07, 2014, 07:43:40 PM
Quote from: ArticMine on August 07, 2014, 04:32:37 PM
The pattern for those alt-coins that have been around for a while is a sharp spike upwards in price when compared to BTC during a BTC boom. Here are some examples:

Litecoin: LTC/BTC http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=ltc-btc&market=btc-e (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=ltc-btc&market=btc-e)
Namecoin: NMC/BTC http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=nmc-btc&market=btc-e (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=nmc-btc&market=btc-e)
Peercoin: PPC/BTC http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=ppc-btc&market=btc-e (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=ppc-btc&market=btc-e)

Dogecoin DOGE/BTC is really interesting here since it was launched right in the middle of a BTC boom. http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=doge-btc&market=cryptsy (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=doge-btc&market=cryptsy) It is hard to see on the chart but this is a brutal bear market since its inception. The moral here is do not launch your alt in the middle of a BTC boom because in a few months it will look really awful.

I would go as far as to say that skyrocketing alt-coin prices in terms of BTC can be an indicator of a BTC/USD top. The trick is finding the right alt-coin since the vast majority are totally worthless and only very few have a chance of doing anything, but there can be a play here.

Thank you for your data mining. That pattern jibes with what I've seen in the gold part of the stock market: when gold's well down the bull track, the major producers go up, the juniors go up a lot, and the few exploration-level penny stocks that capture the punters' excitement explode.

Same on the downside, too. '11-'12 saw the majors getting whacked, the juniors getting whomped, and all-out carnage in the exploration-penny subsector.

I'm not kidding about the last. The pennies were hit so hard, the Venture Stock Exchange had to officially suspend a rule that prohibits secondary offerings by its listees whose stock price is below five cents. Yes, five cents.

Had the Venture board not done so, a lot of viable exploration micros would have had to hire bankruptcy lawyers. I'm quite serious about this.  

The past market behaviours of LTC, NMC and PPC may be able to provide an insight into the possible market behaviour of XMR during a XBT/USD boom.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 16, 2014, 11:15:06 PM
Quote from: darlidada on August 16, 2014, 07:13:46 PM
..numbers...
Using bogus assumptions, gross simplification, and fallacious reasoning i can turn your numbers into an estimate of when the bottom arrives:

2.787 mm float

May volume : 5027
June volume: 8669
July volume: 5982
August volume: 1222
21900 btc. est vwap 0051, 4.294mm xmr volume

The last 3 top to bottom volume: sum  16691 weighted .0051
 5432 (from 8 to 1,75)      1.113mm  .00488
 5178 (from 10 to 2,3)        .842mm  .00615
 6081 (from 5,8 to today) 1.382mm .00440
3.337 mm distributing
4.294 - 3.337 = 0.957mm accummulating
3.337 - 0.957 = 2.384mm net sold
2.787 - 2.384 = 0.403mm of all xmr untraded
1.382mm/31d = .045mm/d distribution rate→9 days supply remaining

so somewhere between 0 and 9 days of distribution are possible.  I say 0 as I would be shocked if strong hands did not already hold 400k xmr. I think the bottom is now behind us.

Time to load up the truck.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dnaleor on August 17, 2014, 02:36:27 AM
reading this thread makes me an uber bull... But already 33% of my crypto is invested (at current prices) in Monero  ;D
Think that is enough... If XMR succeeds, I will benefit ;)

thx for the numbers guys! very usefull
Taking over LTC in market cap is possible I think... LTC doesn't has a unique selling proposition anymore (now that we have scrypt ASICs) and regulation will make it hard for people to have "hidden coins" on a transparent blockchain like bitcoin. There is a market for private currencies, like Monero.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: whoknowsthisnose on August 18, 2014, 12:38:56 AM
As traders and trodlers know, sometimes the handling of Monero seems to be a bit special for exchanges and users. Forgotten payment-id, blockchain not syncronized etc. are every-day-events, as I know, because most of my own trading is with Moneros.

Then you need support and find that there are large differences in the quality of support. This has motivated me to open a thread "quality comparison of the exchanges' support":

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=743446.0

I want to invite all of you to report your experiences with the support of whatever exchange you are using, as a helpful support for other users and - hopefully - inspiration for the exchanges to improve their support.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on August 18, 2014, 12:44:47 AM
Quote from: aminorex on August 16, 2014, 11:15:06 PM
Quote from: darlidada on August 16, 2014, 07:13:46 PM
..numbers...
Using bogus assumptions, gross simplification, and fallacious reasoning i can turn your numbers into an estimate of when the bottom arrives:

2.787 mm float

May volume : 5027
June volume: 8669
July volume: 5982
August volume: 1222
21900 btc. est vwap 0051, 4.294mm xmr volume

The last 3 top to bottom volume: sum  16691 weighted .0051
 5432 (from 8 to 1,75)      1.113mm  .00488
 5178 (from 10 to 2,3)        .842mm  .00615
 6081 (from 5,8 to today) 1.382mm .00440
3.337 mm distributing
4.294 - 3.337 = 0.957mm accummulating
3.337 - 0.957 = 2.384mm net sold
2.787 - 2.384 = 0.403mm of all xmr untraded
1.382mm/31d = .045mm/d distribution rate→9 days supply remaining

so somewhere between 0 and 9 days of distribution are possible.  I say 0 as I would be shocked if strong hands did not already hold 400k xmr. I think the bottom is now behind us.

Time to load up the truck.

Just on this topic:

Based on volume from Poloniex, net buys minus net sells since June 5th is roughly minus 150k XMR.

This selling has been especially strong since the recent rally. - Much stronger than the previous low.



Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Okurkabinladin on August 18, 2014, 09:57:58 AM
So did we finally broke the downtrend? Monero seems to be remarkably stable over the last few days, while almost every other crypto is tanking.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Jungian on August 18, 2014, 10:02:00 AM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on August 18, 2014, 09:57:58 AM
So did we finally broke the downtrend? Monero seems to be remarkably stable over the last few days, while almost every other crypto is tanking.

Insallah! It's a real slaughterhouse going on in the alt-scene. DRK soon down 90% from top.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 18, 2014, 10:16:46 AM
Less economics than speculation, but...

I am calling a bottom on Monero (BTC/XMR rate).

- I already predicted in a certain speculation group about 9 days ago that the bottom would be Sunday, Aug 17.

- Now I am not sure if it will be yesterday or tomorrow, since there is a compelling case for tomorrow also: in 2014-8-19 it will be 37 days from the last bottom, which also was 37 days from the previous one. The lowest prices are aligned at 175005 sat, 231500 sat, and (so far) 290000 sat. The difference between the first ones is 56495 sat and the last ones 58500 sat. There seems to be a cosmic tendency towards symmetry here, so a dip slightly below 290000 may happen tomorrow, but if so, it must be before the market participants start bidding the price up.

- During the dip to sub-3, only 14k moneros have so far been transacted sub-3 (Poloniex). Nobody seems to have much urge of selling them so cheap.

- Of course I know the market dynamics that are causing Monero (which fundamentally is a beneficiary of Bitcoin's troubles) to be double-hammered (in USD/BTC and BTC/XMR both tanking). I just believe that it is over and if not, then it might make sense to buy, if your position is so small that it is possible with the meager depth offered.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Okurkabinladin on August 18, 2014, 10:29:40 AM
Quote from: rpietila on August 18, 2014, 10:16:46 AM
Less economics than speculation, but...

I am calling a bottom on Monero (BTC/XMR rate).

- I already predicted in a certain speculation group about 9 days ago that the bottom would be Sunday, Aug 17.

- Now I am not sure if it will be yesterday or tomorrow, since there is a compelling case for tomorrow also: in 2014-8-19 it will be 37 days from the last bottom, which also was 37 days from the previous one. The lowest prices are aligned at 175005 sat, 231500 sat, and (so far) 290000 sat. The difference between the first ones is 56495 sat and the last ones 58500 sat. There seems to be a cosmic tendency towards symmetry here, so a dip slightly below 290000 may happen tomorrow, but if so, it must be before the market participants start bidding the price up.

- During the dip to sub-3, only 14k moneros have so far been transacted sub-3 (Poloniex). Nobody seems to have much urge of selling them so cheap.

- Of course I know the market dynamics that are causing Monero (which fundamentally is a beneficiary of Bitcoin's troubles) to be double-hammered (in USD/BTC and BTC/XMR both tanking). I just believe that it is over and if not, then it might make sense to buy, if your position is so small that it is possible with the meager depth offered.

Thank you, sir.

Interestingly your prediction coincides with that of Aminorex, who thought, that rally will start around august 20th.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 18, 2014, 01:26:13 PM
Technically, I was not talking about a rally but a bottom. Well, it is kind of same thing. But external events (btc) may postpone the actual rally, or cause volatility.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: cAPSLOCK on August 18, 2014, 10:27:15 PM
Chart is poised to repeat the July 13th type of turnaround.  More and more, the buzz I am starting to hear is about XMR displacing DRK and even LTC.  Even some skeptics seem to be commenting on the fundamentals, and in light of the CN controversy and how that is shaking out I am personally putting a bit of money where my mouth is right now.

I'm not an investment guru, but things just look twitchy right here... in a good way.

Obviously, there is far to go (messy code, database, gui, etc) , and the emission is still aggressive, but I feel like we are at a sort of critical tipping point possibly.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: saddambitcoin on August 18, 2014, 10:44:43 PM
Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: ArticMine on August 18, 2014, 10:49:34 PM
Quote from: cAPSLOCK on August 18, 2014, 10:27:15 PM
Chart is poised to repeat the July 13th type of turnaround.  More and more, the buzz I am starting to hear is about XMR displacing DRK and even LTC.  Even some skeptics seem to be commenting on the fundamentals, and in light of the CN controversy and how that is shaking out I am personally putting a bit of money where my mouth is right now.

I'm not an investment guru, but things just look twitchy right here... in a good way.

Obviously, there is far to go (messy code, database, gui, etc) , and the emission is still aggressive, but I feel like we are at a sort of critical tipping point possibly.

If DRK/XMR stays below 1, this is going to get very interesting. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/ (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Yololintian on August 19, 2014, 07:18:27 AM
Just checking in to say I am very glad monero is holding up so well in this bear market. Gives me confidence in the coin and shows me that the people who have invested are serious about this for the long term. It has some serious potential.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 19, 2014, 12:02:40 PM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 18, 2014, 10:44:43 PM
Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

anyone who deems an altcoin an investment on grounds of its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects is disproportionately likely to have need of a manhattan psychiatrist (and ability to pay).  i may go there myself.  do they still prescribe quaaludes?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Anotheranonlol on August 19, 2014, 04:39:02 PM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 18, 2014, 10:44:43 PM
Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

Shrink finds his perfect demographic. Great news for XMR perma-bulls, they can now get the help they need without being traced through the blockchain


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: saddambitcoin on August 19, 2014, 08:25:04 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 19, 2014, 12:02:40 PM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 18, 2014, 10:44:43 PM
Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

anyone who deems an altcoin an investment on grounds of its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects is disproportionately likely to have need of a manhattan psychiatrist (and ability to pay).  i may go there myself.  do they still prescribe quaaludes?

i'm not sure what is the modern-day equivalent to quaaludes, maybe xanax? i don't like either tbh. i'm sure you could get some amphetamines though, for your adult ADD. i enjoyed vyvanse for years but its too habit forming, ahh

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on August 22, 2014, 01:49:16 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 06:53:55 PM
Quote from: wpalczynski on July 30, 2014, 06:41:06 PM
Any projections as to when the emission rate will decrease for Monero?

Code:
day	coins	new
18.4.2014	15 580	25 333
19.4.2014	40 891	25 311
20.4.2014	66 168	25 277
21.4.2014	91 410	25 242
22.4.2014	116 617	25 207
23.4.2014	141 790	25 173
24.4.2014	166 928	25 138
25.4.2014	192 031	25 104
26.4.2014	217 100	25 069
27.4.2014	242 135	25 035
28.4.2014	267 135	25 000
29.4.2014	292 101	24 966
30.4.2014	317 033	24 932
1.5.2014	341 930	24 897
2.5.2014	366 793	24 863
3.5.2014	391 622	24 829
4.5.2014	416 417	24 795
5.5.2014	441 178	24 761
6.5.2014	465 905	24 727
7.5.2014	490 598	24 693
8.5.2014	515 257	24 659
9.5.2014	539 882	24 625
10.5.2014	564 473	24 591
11.5.2014	589 031	24 558
12.5.2014	613 555	24 524
13.5.2014	638 045	24 490
14.5.2014	662 501	24 457
15.5.2014	686 924	24 423
16.5.2014	711 314	24 389
17.5.2014	735 670	24 356
18.5.2014	759 992	24 322
19.5.2014	784 281	24 289
20.5.2014	808 537	24 256
21.5.2014	832 759	24 222
22.5.2014	856 948	24 189
23.5.2014	881 104	24 156
24.5.2014	905 227	24 123
25.5.2014	929 317	24 090
26.5.2014	953 373	24 057
27.5.2014	977 397	24 023
28.5.2014	1 001 387	23 990
29.5.2014	1 025 345	23 958
30.5.2014	1 049 269	23 925
31.5.2014	1 073 161	23 892
1.6.2014	1 097 020	23 859
2.6.2014	1 120 846	23 826
3.6.2014	1 144 640	23 793
4.6.2014	1 168 401	23 761
5.6.2014	1 192 129	23 728
6.6.2014	1 215 824	23 696
7.6.2014	1 239 487	23 663
8.6.2014	1 263 118	23 631
9.6.2014	1 286 716	23 598
10.6.2014	1 310 282	23 566
11.6.2014	1 333 815	23 533
12.6.2014	1 357 316	23 501
13.6.2014	1 380 785	23 469
14.6.2014	1 404 222	23 437
15.6.2014	1 427 626	23 404
16.6.2014	1 450 998	23 372
17.6.2014	1 474 338	23 340
18.6.2014	1 497 646	23 308
19.6.2014	1 520 922	23 276
20.6.2014	1 544 166	23 244
21.6.2014	1 567 379	23 212
22.6.2014	1 590 559	23 180
23.6.2014	1 613 707	23 148
24.6.2014	1 636 824	23 117
25.6.2014	1 659 909	23 085
26.6.2014	1 682 962	23 053
27.6.2014	1 705 984	23 022
28.6.2014	1 728 974	22 990
29.6.2014	1 751 932	22 958
30.6.2014	1 774 859	22 927
1.7.2014	1 797 754	22 895
2.7.2014	1 820 618	22 864
3.7.2014	1 843 451	22 833
4.7.2014	1 866 252	22 801
5.7.2014	1 889 022	22 770
6.7.2014	1 911 760	22 739
7.7.2014	1 934 467	22 707
8.7.2014	1 957 144	22 676
9.7.2014	1 979 789	22 645
10.7.2014	2 002 403	22 614
11.7.2014	2 024 985	22 583
12.7.2014	2 047 537	22 552
13.7.2014	2 070 058	22 521
14.7.2014	2 092 548	22 490
15.7.2014	2 115 007	22 459
16.7.2014	2 137 435	22 428
17.7.2014	2 159 833	22 397
18.7.2014	2 182 199	22 367
19.7.2014	2 204 535	22 336
20.7.2014	2 226 841	22 305
21.7.2014	2 249 115	22 275
22.7.2014	2 271 359	22 244
23.7.2014	2 293 573	22 214
24.7.2014	2 315 756	22 183
25.7.2014	2 337 908	22 153
26.7.2014	2 368 839	22 122
27.7.2014	2 390 919	22 080
28.7.2014	2 412 968	22 049
29.7.2014	2 434 987	22 019
30.7.2014	2 456 976	21 989
31.7.2014	2 478 934	21 959
1.8.2014	2 500 863	21 928
2.8.2014	2 522 761	21 898
3.8.2014	2 544 629	21 868
4.8.2014	2 566 468	21 838
5.8.2014	2 588 276	21 808
6.8.2014	2 610 054	21 778
7.8.2014	2 631 803	21 748
8.8.2014	2 653 521	21 719
9.8.2014	2 675 210	21 689
10.8.2014	2 696 869	21 659
11.8.2014	2 718 498	21 629
12.8.2014	2 740 097	21 599
13.8.2014	2 761 667	21 570
14.8.2014	2 783 207	21 540
15.8.2014	2 804 718	21 511
16.8.2014	2 826 199	21 481
17.8.2014	2 847 651	21 452
18.8.2014	2 869 073	21 422
19.8.2014	2 890 465	21 393
20.8.2014	2 911 829	21 363
21.8.2014	2 933 163	21 334
22.8.2014	2 954 467	21 305
23.8.2014	2 975 743	21 275
24.8.2014	2 996 989	21 246
25.8.2014	3 018 206	21 217
26.8.2014	3 039 394	21 188
27.8.2014	3 060 552	21 159
28.8.2014	3 081 682	21 130
29.8.2014	3 102 783	21 101
30.8.2014	3 123 855	21 072
31.8.2014	3 144 897	21 043
1.9.2014	3 165 911	21 014
2.9.2014	3 186 896	20 985
3.9.2014	3 207 853	20 956
4.9.2014	3 228 780	20 927
5.9.2014	3 249 679	20 899
6.9.2014	3 270 549	20 870
7.9.2014	3 291 390	20 841
8.9.2014	3 312 203	20 813
9.9.2014	3 332 987	20 784
10.9.2014	3 353 742	20 756
11.9.2014	3 374 469	20 727
12.9.2014	3 395 168	20 699
13.9.2014	3 415 838	20 670
14.9.2014	3 436 480	20 642
15.9.2014	3 457 094	20 613
16.9.2014	3 477 679	20 585
17.9.2014	3 498 236	20 557
18.9.2014	3 518 764	20 529
19.9.2014	3 539 265	20 500
20.9.2014	3 559 737	20 472
21.9.2014	3 580 181	20 444
22.9.2014	3 600 597	20 416
23.9.2014	3 620 985	20 388
24.9.2014	3 641 345	20 360
25.9.2014	3 661 678	20 332
26.9.2014	3 681 982	20 304
27.9.2014	3 702 258	20 276
28.9.2014	3 722 507	20 248
29.9.2014	3 742 727	20 221
30.9.2014	3 762 920	20 193
1.10.2014	3 783 085	20 165
2.10.2014	3 803 223	20 137
3.10.2014	3 823 333	20 110
4.10.2014	3 843 415	20 082
5.10.2014	3 863 469	20 055
6.10.2014	3 883 497	20 027
7.10.2014	3 903 496	20 000
8.10.2014	3 923 468	19 972
9.10.2014	3 943 413	19 945
10.10.2014	3 963 330	19 917
11.10.2014	3 983 220	19 890
12.10.2014	4 003 083	19 863
13.10.2014	4 022 918	19 835
14.10.2014	4 042 726	19 808
15.10.2014	4 062 507	19 781
16.10.2014	4 082 261	19 754
17.10.2014	4 101 987	19 727
18.10.2014	4 121 687	19 700
19.10.2014	4 141 359	19 672
20.10.2014	4 161 005	19 645
21.10.2014	4 180 623	19 618
22.10.2014	4 200 215	19 592
23.10.2014	4 219 780	19 565
24.10.2014	4 239 317	19 538
25.10.2014	4 258 828	19 511
26.10.2014	4 278 312	19 484
27.10.2014	4 297 770	19 457
28.10.2014	4 317 200	19 431
29.10.2014	4 336 604	19 404
30.10.2014	4 355 982	19 377
31.10.2014	4 375 332	19 351
1.11.2014	4 394 657	19 324
2.11.2014	4 413 954	19 298
3.11.2014	4 433 225	19 271
4.11.2014	4 452 470	19 245
5.11.2014	4 471 688	19 218
6.11.2014	4 490 880	19 192
7.11.2014	4 510 045	19 165
8.11.2014	4 529 185	19 139
9.11.2014	4 548 297	19 113
10.11.2014	4 567 384	19 087
11.11.2014	4 586 444	19 060
12.11.2014	4 605 479	19 034
13.11.2014	4 624 487	19 008
14.11.2014	4 643 469	18 982
15.11.2014	4 662 425	18 956
16.11.2014	4 681 355	18 930
17.11.2014	4 700 258	18 904
18.11.2014	4 719 136	18 878
19.11.2014	4 737 988	18 852
20.11.2014	4 756 814	18 826
21.11.2014	4 775 615	18 800
22.11.2014	4 794 389	18 774
23.11.2014	4 813 138	18 749
24.11.2014	4 831 861	18 723
25.11.2014	4 850 558	18 697
26.11.2014	4 869 229	18 672
27.11.2014	4 887 875	18 646
28.11.2014	4 906 496	18 620
29.11.2014	4 925 090	18 595
30.11.2014	4 943 659	18 569
1.12.2014	4 962 203	18 544
2.12.2014	4 980 721	18 518
3.12.2014	4 999 214	18 493
4.12.2014	5 017 681	18 467
5.12.2014	5 036 123	18 442
6.12.2014	5 054 540	18 417
7.12.2014	5 072 932	18 391
8.12.2014	5 091 298	18 366
9.12.2014	5 109 639	18 341
10.12.2014	5 127 954	18 316
11.12.2014	5 146 245	18 291
12.12.2014	5 164 510	18 265
13.12.2014	5 182 751	18 240
14.12.2014	5 200 966	18 215
15.12.2014	5 219 156	18 190
16.12.2014	5 237 322	18 165
17.12.2014	5 255 462	18 140
18.12.2014	5 273 578	18 115
19.12.2014	5 291 668	18 091
20.12.2014	5 309 734	18 066
21.12.2014	5 327 775	18 041
22.12.2014	5 345 791	18 016
23.12.2014	5 363 782	17 991
24.12.2014	5 381 749	17 967
25.12.2014	5 399 691	17 942
26.12.2014	5 417 609	17 917
27.12.2014	5 435 501	17 893
28.12.2014	5 453 370	17 868
29.12.2014	5 471 213	17 844
30.12.2014	5 489 032	17 819
31.12.2014	5 506 827	17 795
1.1.2015	5 524 597	17 770
2.1.2015	5 542 343	17 746
3.1.2015	5 560 065	17 721
4.1.2015	5 577 762	17 697
5.1.2015	5 595 435	17 673
6.1.2015	5 613 083	17 649
7.1.2015	5 630 708	17 624
8.1.2015	5 648 308	17 600
9.1.2015	5 665 884	17 576
10.1.2015	5 683 436	17 552
11.1.2015	5 700 963	17 528
12.1.2015	5 718 467	17 504
13.1.2015	5 735 947	17 480
14.1.2015	5 753 402	17 456
15.1.2015	5 770 834	17 432
16.1.2015	5 788 242	17 408
17.1.2015	5 805 626	17 384
18.1.2015	5 822 985	17 360
19.1.2015	5 840 322	17 336
20.1.2015	5 857 634	17 312
21.1.2015	5 874 922	17 289
22.1.2015	5 892 187	17 265
23.1.2015	5 909 428	17 241
24.1.2015	5 926 646	17 217
25.1.2015	5 943 839	17 194
26.1.2015	5 961 009	17 170
27.1.2015	5 978 156	17 147
28.1.2015	5 995 279	17 123
29.1.2015	6 012 378	17 099
30.1.2015	6 029 454	17 076
31.1.2015	6 046 507	17 053
1.2.2015	6 063 536	17 029
2.2.2015	6 080 542	17 006
3.2.2015	6 097 524	16 982
4.2.2015	6 114 483	16 959
5.2.2015	6 131 419	16 936
6.2.2015	6 148 332	16 913
7.2.2015	6 165 221	16 889
8.2.2015	6 182 087	16 866
9.2.2015	6 198 930	16 843
10.2.2015	6 215 750	16 820
11.2.2015	6 232 547	16 797
12.2.2015	6 249 320	16 774
13.2.2015	6 266 071	16 751
14.2.2015	6 282 798	16 728
15.2.2015	6 299 503	16 705
16.2.2015	6 316 185	16 682
17.2.2015	6 332 844	16 659
18.2.2015	6 349 479	16 636
19.2.2015	6 366 093	16 613
20.2.2015	6 382 683	16 590
21.2.2015	6 399 250	16 567
22.2.2015	6 415 795	16 545
23.2.2015	6 432 317	16 522
24.2.2015	6 448 816	16 499
25.2.2015	6 465 293	16 477
26.2.2015	6 481 747	16 454
27.2.2015	6 498 178	16 431
28.2.2015	6 514 587	16 409
1.3.2015	6 530 974	16 386
2.3.2015	6 547 337	16 364
3.3.2015	6 563 679	16 341
4.3.2015	6 579 998	16 319
5.3.2015	6 596 294	16 296
6.3.2015	6 612 568	16 274
7.3.2015	6 628 820	16 252
8.3.2015	6 645 049	16 229
9.3.2015	6 661 257	16 207
10.3.2015	6 677 442	16 185
11.3.2015	6 693 604	16 163
12.3.2015	6 709 745	16 140
13.3.2015	6 725 863	16 118
14.3.2015	6 741 959	16 096
15.3.2015	6 758 033	16 074
16.3.2015	6 774 085	16 052
17.3.2015	6 790 115	16 030
18.3.2015	6 806 123	16 008
19.3.2015	6 822 109	15 986
20.3.2015	6 838 073	15 964
21.3.2015	6 854 015	15 942
22.3.2015	6 869 935	15 920
23.3.2015	6 885 834	15 898
24.3.2015	6 901 710	15 876
25.3.2015	6 917 565	15 855
26.3.2015	6 933 398	15 833
27.3.2015	6 949 209	15 811
28.3.2015	6 964 998	15 789
29.3.2015	6 980 766	15 768
30.3.2015	6 996 512	15 746
31.3.2015	7 012 237	15 725
1.4.2015	7 027 940	15 703
2.4.2015	7 043 621	15 681
3.4.2015	7 059 281	15 660
4.4.2015	7 074 919	15 638
5.4.2015	7 090 536	15 617
6.4.2015	7 106 131	15 595
7.4.2015	7 121 705	15 574
8.4.2015	7 137 258	15 553
9.4.2015	7 152 789	15 531
10.4.2015	7 168 299	15 510
11.4.2015	7 183 788	15 489
12.4.2015	7 199 255	15 467
13.4.2015	7 214 701	15 446
14.4.2015	7 230 126	15 425
15.4.2015	7 245 530	15 404
16.4.2015	7 260 912	15 383
17.4.2015	7 276 274	15 361
18.4.2015	7 291 614	15 340
19.4.2015	7 306 933	15 319
20.4.2015	7 322 231	15 298
21.4.2015	7 337 508	15 277
22.4.2015	7 352 765	15 256
23.4.2015	7 368 000	15 235
24.4.2015	7 383 214	15 214
25.4.2015	7 398 408	15 193
26.4.2015	7 413 580	15 173
27.4.2015	7 428 732	15 152
28.4.2015	7 443 863	15 131
29.4.2015	7 458 973	15 110
30.4.2015	7 474 063	15 089
1.5.2015	7 489 131	15 069
2.5.2015	7 504 179	15 048
3.5.2015	7 519 207	15 027
4.5.2015	7 534 213	15 007
5.5.2015	7 549 199	14 986
6.5.2015	7 564 165	14 966
7.5.2015	7 579 110	14 945
8.5.2015	7 594 034	14 924
9.5.2015	7 608 938	14 904
10.5.2015	7 623 822	14 883
11.5.2015	7 638 685	14 863
12.5.2015	7 653 527	14 843
13.5.2015	7 668 349	14 822
14.5.2015	7 683 151	14 802
15.5.2015	7 697 933	14 782
16.5.2015	7 712 694	14 761
17.5.2015	7 727 435	14 741
18.5.2015	7 742 156	14 721
19.5.2015	7 756 856	14 701
20.5.2015	7 771 537	14 680
21.5.2015	7 786 197	14 660
22.5.2015	7 800 837	14 640
23.5.2015	7 815 457	14 620
24.5.2015	7 830 057	14 600
25.5.2015	7 844 636	14 580
26.5.2015	7 859 196	14 560
27.5.2015	7 873 736	14 540
28.5.2015	7 888 256	14 520
29.5.2015	7 902 756	14 500
30.5.2015	7 917 236	14 480
31.5.2015	7 931 696	14 460
1.6.2015	7 946 136	14 440
2.6.2015	7 960 556	14 420
3.6.2015	7 974 957	14 401
4.6.2015	7 989 338	14 381
5.6.2015	8 003 699	14 361
6.6.2015	8 018 040	14 341
7.6.2015	8 032 362	14 322
8.6.2015	8 046 664	14 302
9.6.2015	8 060 946	14 282
10.6.2015	8 075 209	14 263
11.6.2015	8 089 452	14 243
12.6.2015	8 103 676	14 224
13.6.2015	8 117 880	14 204
14.6.2015	8 132 064	14 185
15.6.2015	8 146 229	14 165
16.6.2015	8 160 375	14 146
17.6.2015	8 174 501	14 126
18.6.2015	8 188 608	14 107
19.6.2015	8 202 695	14 087
20.6.2015	8 216 763	14 068
21.6.2015	8 230 812	14 049
22.6.2015	8 244 841	14 029
23.6.2015	8 258 852	14 010
24.6.2015	8 272 843	13 991
25.6.2015	8 286 814	13 972
26.6.2015	8 300 767	13 953
27.6.2015	8 314 700	13 933
28.6.2015	8 328 614	13 914
29.6.2015	8 342 510	13 895
30.6.2015	8 356 386	13 876
1.7.2015	8 370 243	13 857
2.7.2015	8 384 081	13 838
3.7.2015	8 397 900	13 819
4.7.2015	8 411 700	13 800
5.7.2015	8 425 481	13 781
6.7.2015	8 439 243	13 762
7.7.2015	8 452 986	13 743
8.7.2015	8 466 710	13 724
9.7.2015	8 480 416	13 705
10.7.2015	8 494 102	13 687
11.7.2015	8 507 770	13 668
12.7.2015	8 521 419	13 649
13.7.2015	8 535 050	13 630
14.7.2015	8 548 661	13 612
15.7.2015	8 562 254	13 593
16.7.2015	8 575 829	13 574
17.7.2015	8 589 384	13 556
18.7.2015	8 602 921	13 537
19.7.2015	8 616 440	13 518
20.7.2015	8 629 940	13 500
21.7.2015	8 643 421	13 481
22.7.2015	8 656 884	13 463
23.7.2015	8 670 328	13 444
24.7.2015	8 683 754	13 426
25.7.2015	8 697 161	13 407
26.7.2015	8 710 550	13 389
27.7.2015	8 723 921	13 371
28.7.2015	8 737 273	13 352
29.7.2015	8 750 607	13 334
30.7.2015	8 763 923	13 316
31.7.2015	8 777 220	13 297
1.8.2015	8 790 499	13 279
2.8.2015	8 803 760	13 261
3.8.2015	8 817 003	13 243
4.8.2015	8 830 227	13 224
5.8.2015	8 843 433	13 206
6.8.2015	8 856 621	13 188
7.8.2015	8 869 792	13 170
8.8.2015	8 882 943	13 152
9.8.2015	8 896 077	13 134
10.8.2015	8 909 193	13 116
11.8.2015	8 922 291	13 098
12.8.2015	8 935 371	13 080
13.8.2015	8 948 433	13 062
14.8.2015	8 961 477	13 044
15.8.2015	8 974 503	13 026
16.8.2015	8 987 511	13 008
17.8.2015	9 000 501	12 990
18.8.2015	9 013 474	12 972
19.8.2015	9 026 428	12 955
20.8.2015	9 039 365	12 937
21.8.2015	9 052 284	12 919
22.8.2015	9 065 185	12 901
23.8.2015	9 078 069	12 884
24.8.2015	9 090 935	12 866
25.8.2015	9 103 783	12 848
26.8.2015	9 116 614	12 831
27.8.2015	9 129 427	12 813
28.8.2015	9 142 222	12 795
29.8.2015	9 155 000	12 778
30.8.2015	9 167 760	12 760
31.8.2015	9 180 503	12 743
1.9.2015	9 193 228	12 725
2.9.2015	9 205 936	12 708
3.9.2015	9 218 626	12 690
4.9.2015	9 231 299	12 673
5.9.2015	9 243 955	12 655
6.9.2015	9 256 593	12 638
7.9.2015	9 269 214	12 621
8.9.2015	9 281 817	12 603
9.9.2015	9 294 403	12 586
10.9.2015	9 306 972	12 569
11.9.2015	9 319 524	12 552
12.9.2015	9 332 058	12 534
13.9.2015	9 344 575	12 517
14.9.2015	9 357 075	12 500
15.9.2015	9 369 558	12 483
16.9.2015	9 382 023	12 466
17.9.2015	9 394 472	12 448
18.9.2015	9 406 903	12 431
19.9.2015	9 419 318	12 414
20.9.2015	9 431 715	12 397
21.9.2015	9 444 095	12 380
22.9.2015	9 456 458	12 363
23.9.2015	9 468 805	12 346
24.9.2015	9 481 134	12 329
25.9.2015	9 493 446	12 312
26.9.2015	9 505 742	12 295
27.9.2015	9 518 020	12 279
28.9.2015	9 530 282	12 262
29.9.2015	9 542 527	12 245
30.9.2015	9 554 755	12 228
1.10.2015	9 566 966	12 211
2.10.2015	9 579 161	12 195
3.10.2015	9 591 339	12 178
4.10.2015	9 603 500	12 161
5.10.2015	9 615 644	12 144
6.10.2015	9 627 772	12 128
7.10.2015	9 639 883	12 111
8.10.2015	9 651 977	12 094
9.10.2015	9 664 055	12 078
10.10.2015	9 676 116	12 061
11.10.2015	9 688 161	12 045
12.10.2015	9 700 189	12 028
13.10.2015	9 712 200	12 012
14.10.2015	9 724 195	11 995
15.10.2015	9 736 174	11 979
16.10.2015	9 748 136	11 962
17.10.2015	9 760 082	11 946
18.10.2015	9 772 011	11 929
19.10.2015	9 783 924	11 913
20.10.2015	9 795 821	11 897
21.10.2015	9 807 701	11 880
22.10.2015	9 819 565	11 864
23.10.2015	9 831 413	11 848
24.10.2015	9 843 244	11 831
25.10.2015	9 855 059	11 815
26.10.2015	9 866 858	11 799
27.10.2015	9 878 641	11 783
28.10.2015	9 890 407	11 766
29.10.2015	9 902 157	11 750
30.10.2015	9 913 892	11 734
31.10.2015	9 925 610	11 718
1.11.2015	9 937 312	11 702
2.11.2015	9 948 998	11 686
3.11.2015	9 960 667	11 670
4.11.2015	9 972 321	11 654
5.11.2015	9 983 959	11 638
6.11.2015	9 995 581	11 622
7.11.2015	10 007 187	11 606
8.11.2015	10 018 777	11 590
9.11.2015	10 030 351	11 574
10.11.2015	10 041 909	11 558
11.11.2015	10 053 451	11 542
12.11.2015	10 064 978	11 526
13.11.2015	10 076 488	11 511
14.11.2015	10 087 983	11 495
15.11.2015	10 099 462	11 479
16.11.2015	10 110 926	11 463
17.11.2015	10 122 373	11 448
18.11.2015	10 133 805	11 432
19.11.2015	10 145 221	11 416
20.11.2015	10 156 621	11 400
21.11.2015	10 168 006	11 385
22.11.2015	10 179 375	11 369
23.11.2015	10 190 729	11 354
24.11.2015	10 202 067	11 338
25.11.2015	10 213 389	11 322
26.11.2015	10 224 696	11 307
27.11.2015	10 235 987	11 291
28.11.2015	10 247 263	11 276
29.11.2015	10 258 523	11 260
30.11.2015	10 269 768	11 245
1.12.2015	10 280 997	11 229
2.12.2015	10 292 211	11 214
3.12.2015	10 303 410	11 199
4.12.2015	10 314 593	11 183
5.12.2015	10 325 761	11 168
6.12.2015	10 336 913	11 152
7.12.2015	10 348 050	11 137
8.12.2015	10 359 172	11 122
9.12.2015	10 370 279	11 107
10.12.2015	10 381 370	11 091
11.12.2015	10 392 446	11 076
12.12.2015	10 403 507	11 061
13.12.2015	10 414 553	11 046
14.12.2015	10 425 583	11 031
15.12.2015	10 436 599	11 015
16.12.2015	10 447 599	11 000
17.12.2015	10 458 584	10 985
18.12.2015	10 469 554	10 970
19.12.2015	10 480 509	10 955
20.12.2015	10 491 449	10 940
21.12.2015	10 502 374	10 925
22.12.2015	10 513 284	10 910
23.12.2015	10 524 179	10 895
24.12.2015	10 535 059	10 880
25.12.2015	10 545 924	10 865
26.12.2015	10 556 774	10 850
27.12.2015	10 567 609	10 835
28.12.2015	10 578 430	10 820
29.12.2015	10 589 235	10 805
30.12.2015	10 600 026	10 791
31.12.2015	10 610 802	10 776
1.1.2016	10 621 563	10 761
2.1.2016	10 632 309	10 746
3.1.2016	10 643 040	10 731
4.1.2016	10 653 757	10 717
5.1.2016	10 664 459	10 702
6.1.2016	10 675 147	10 687
7.1.2016	10 685 819	10 673
8.1.2016	10 696 477	10 658
9.1.2016	10 707 121	10 643
10.1.2016	10 717 749	10 629
11.1.2016	10 728 364	10 614
12.1.2016	10 738 963	10 600
13.1.2016	10 749 548	10 585
14.1.2016	10 760 119	10 570
15.1.2016	10 770 675	10 556
16.1.2016	10 781 216	10 541
17.1.2016	10 791 743	10 527
18.1.2016	10 802 256	10 513
19.1.2016	10 812 754	10 498
20.1.2016	10 823 237	10 484
21.1.2016	10 833 707	10 469
22.1.2016	10 844 162	10 455
23.1.2016	10 854 602	10 441
24.1.2016	10 865 028	10 426
25.1.2016	10 875 440	10 412
26.1.2016	10 885 838	10 398
27.1.2016	10 896 221	10 383
28.1.2016	10 906 590	10 369
29.1.2016	10 916 945	10 355
30.1.2016	10 927 286	10 341
31.1.2016	10 937 612	10 326
1.2.2016	10 947 924	10 312
2.2.2016	10 958 222	10 298
3.2.2016	10 968 506	10 284
4.2.2016	10 978 776	10 270
5.2.2016	10 989 032	10 256
6.2.2016	10 999 273	10 242
7.2.2016	11 009 501	10 228
8.2.2016	11 019 714	10 213
9.2.2016	11 029 914	10 199
10.2.2016	11 040 099	10 185
11.2.2016	11 050 271	10 171
12.2.2016	11 060 428	10 158
13.2.2016	11 070 572	10 144
14.2.2016	11 080 702	10 130
15.2.2016	11 090 817	10 116
16.2.2016	11 100 919	10 102
17.2.2016	11 111 007	10 088
18.2.2016	11 121 081	10 074
19.2.2016	11 131 141	10 060
20.2.2016	11 141 188	10 046
21.2.2016	11 151 221	10 033
22.2.2016	11 161 239	10 019
23.2.2016	11 171 245	10 005
24.2.2016	11 181 236	9 991
25.2.2016	11 191 214	9 978
26.2.2016	11 201 178	9 964
27.2.2016	11 211 128	9 950
28.2.2016	11 221 064	9 937
29.2.2016	11 230 987	9 923
1.3.2016	11 240 897	9 909
2.3.2016	11 250 792	9 896
3.3.2016	11 260 675	9 882
4.3.2016	11 270 543	9 869
5.3.2016	11 280 398	9 855
6.3.2016	11 290 240	9 841
7.3.2016	11 300 068	9 828
8.3.2016	11 309 882	9 814
9.3.2016	11 319 683	9 801
10.3.2016	11 329 471	9 788
11.3.2016	11 339 245	9 774
12.3.2016	11 349 005	9 761
13.3.2016	11 358 753	9 747
14.3.2016	11 368 487	9 734
15.3.2016	11 378 207	9 721
16.3.2016	11 387 914	9 707
17.3.2016	11 397 608	9 694
18.3.2016	11 407 289	9 681
19.3.2016	11 416 956	9 667
20.3.2016	11 426 610	9 654
21.3.2016	11 436 250	9 641
22.3.2016	11 445 878	9 627
23.3.2016	11 455 492	9 614
24.3.2016	11 465 093	9 601
25.3.2016	11 474 681	9 588
26.3.2016	11 484 256	9 575
27.3.2016	11 493 817	9 562
28.3.2016	11 503 365	9 548
29.3.2016	11 512 901	9 535
30.3.2016	11 522 423	9 522
31.3.2016	11 531 932	9 509
1.4.2016	11 541 428	9 496
2.4.2016	11 550 911	9 483
3.4.2016	11 560 381	9 470
4.4.2016	11 569 838	9 457
5.4.2016	11 579 282	9 444
6.4.2016	11 588 713	9 431
7.4.2016	11 598 131	9 418
8.4.2016	11 607 536	9 405
9.4.2016	11 616 929	9 392
10.4.2016	11 626 308	9 379
11.4.2016	11 635 674	9 366
12.4.2016	11 645 028	9 354
13.4.2016	11 654 369	9 341
14.4.2016	11 663 697	9 328
15.4.2016	11 673 012	9 315
16.4.2016	11 682 314	9 302
17.4.2016	11 691 603	9 290
18.4.2016	11 700 880	9 277
19.4.2016	11 710 144	9 264
20.4.2016	11 719 396	9 251
21.4.2016	11 728 634	9 239
22.4.2016	11 737 860	9 226
23.4.2016	11 747 073	9 213
24.4.2016	11 756 274	9 201
25.4.2016	11 765 462	9 188
26.4.2016	11 774 637	9 175
27.4.2016	11 783 800	9 163
28.4.2016	11 792 950	9 150
29.4.2016	11 802 088	9 138
30.4.2016	11 811 213	9 125
1.5.2016	11 820 325	9 113
2.5.2016	11 829 425	9 100
3.5.2016	11 838 513	9 088
4.5.2016	11 847 588	9 075
5.5.2016	11 856 650	9 063
6.5.2016	11 865 701	9 050
7.5.2016	11 874 738	9 038
8.5.2016	11 883 763	9 025
9.5.2016	11 892 776	9 013
10.5.2016	11 901 777	9 001
11.5.2016	11 910 765	8 988
12.5.2016	11 919 741	8 976
13.5.2016	11 928 704	8 963
14.5.2016	11 937 655	8 951
15.5.2016	11 946 594	8 939
16.5.2016	11 955 521	8 927
17.5.2016	11 964 435	8 914
18.5.2016	11 973 337	8 902
19.5.2016	11 982 227	8 890
20.5.2016	11 991 105	8 878
21.5.2016	11 999 970	8 865
22.5.2016	12 008 824	8 853
23.5.2016	12 017 665	8 841
24.5.2016	12 026 494	8 829
25.5.2016	12 035 311	8 817
26.5.2016	12 044 115	8 805
27.5.2016	12 052 908	8 793
28.5.2016	12 061 689	8 781
29.5.2016	12 070 457	8 769
30.5.2016	12 079 214	8 756
31.5.2016	12 087 958	8 744
1.6.2016	12 096 691	8 732
2.6.2016	12 105 411	8 720
3.6.2016	12 114 120	8 708
4.6.2016	12 122 816	8 697
5.6.2016	12 131 501	8 685
6.6.2016	12 140 173	8 673
7.6.2016	12 148 834	8 661
8.6.2016	12 157 483	8 649
9.6.2016	12 166 120	8 637
10.6.2016	12 174 745	8 625
11.6.2016	12 183 358	8 613
12.6.2016	12 191 960	8 601
13.6.2016	12 200 550	8 590
14.6.2016	12 209 127	8 578
15.6.2016	12 217 693	8 566
16.6.2016	12 226 248	8 554
17.6.2016	12 234 790	8 543
18.6.2016	12 243 321	8 531
19.6.2016	12 251 840	8 519
20.6.2016	12 260 348	8 507
21.6.2016	12 268 843	8 496
22.6.2016	12 277 327	8 484
23.6.2016	12 285 800	8 472
24.6.2016	12 294 261	8 461
25.6.2016	12 302 710	8 449
26.6.2016	12 311 147	8 438
27.6.2016	12 319 573	8 426
28.6.2016	12 327 988	8 414
29.6.2016	12 336 390	8 403
30.6.2016	12 344 782	8 391
1.7.2016	12 353 162	8 380
2.7.2016	12 361 530	8 368
3.7.2016	12 369 887	8 357
4.7.2016	12 378 232	8 345
5.7.2016	12 386 566	8 334
6.7.2016	12 394 888	8 322
7.7.2016	12 403 199	8 311
8.7.2016	12 411 499	8 300
9.7.2016	12 419 787	8 288
10.7.2016	12 428 064	8 277
11.7.2016	12 436 329	8 265
12.7.2016	12 444 583	8 254
13.7.2016	12 452 826	8 243
14.7.2016	12 461 057	8 231
15.7.2016	12 469 277	8 220
16.7.2016	12 477 486	8 209
17.7.2016	12 485 683	8 198
18.7.2016	12 493 870	8 186
19.7.2016	12 502 045	8 175
20.7.2016	12 510 209	8 164
21.7.2016	12 518 361	8 153
22.7.2016	12 526 503	8 141
23.7.2016	12 534 633	8 130
24.7.2016	12 542 752	8 119
25.7.2016	12 550 860	8 108
26.7.2016	12 558 957	8 097
27.7.2016	12 567 042	8 086
28.7.2016	12 575 117	8 075
29.7.2016	12 583 180	8 063
30.7.2016	12 591 233	8 052
31.7.2016	12 599 274	8 041
1.8.2016	12 607 304	8 030
2.8.2016	12 615 323	8 019
3.8.2016	12 623 332	8 008
4.8.2016	12 631 329	7 997
5.8.2016	12 639 315	7 986
6.8.2016	12 647 290	7 975
7.8.2016	12 655 255	7 964
8.8.2016	12 663 208	7 953
9.8.2016	12 671 151	7 942
10.8.2016	12 679 082	7 932
11.8.2016	12 687 003	7 921
12.8.2016	12 694 913	7 910
13.8.2016	12 702 812	7 899
14.8.2016	12 710 700	7 888
15.8.2016	12 718 577	7 877
16.8.2016	12 726 443	7 866
17.8.2016	12 734 299	7 856
18.8.2016	12 742 144	7 845
19.8.2016	12 749 978	7 834
20.8.2016	12 757 801	7 823
21.8.2016	12 765 614	7 813
22.8.2016	12 773 416	7 802
23.8.2016	12 781 207	7 791
24.8.2016	12 788 987	7 780
25.8.2016	12 796 757	7 770
26.8.2016	12 804 516	7 759
27.8.2016	12 812 264	7 748
28.8.2016	12 820 002	7 738
29.8.2016	12 827 729	7 727
30.8.2016	12 835 446	7 717
31.8.2016	12 843 152	7 706
1.9.2016	12 850 847	7 695
2.9.2016	12 858 532	7 685
3.9.2016	12 866 206	7 674
4.9.2016	12 873 870	7 664
5.9.2016	12 881 523	7 653
6.9.2016	12 889 166	7 643
7.9.2016	12 896 798	7 632
8.9.2016	12 904 420	7 622
9.9.2016	12 912 031	7 611
10.9.2016	12 919 632	7 601
11.9.2016	12 927 222	7 590
12.9.2016	12 934 802	7 580
13.9.2016	12 942 371	7 570
14.9.2016	12 949 931	7 559
15.9.2016	12 957 479	7 549
16.9.2016	12 965 018	7 538
17.9.2016	12 972 546	7 528
18.9.2016	12 980 063	7 518
19.9.2016	12 987 571	7 507
20.9.2016	12 995 068	7 497
21.9.2016	13 002 554	7 487
22.9.2016	13 010 031	7 476
23.9.2016	13 017 497	7 466
24.9.2016	13 024 953	7 456
25.9.2016	13 032 399	7 446
26.9.2016	13 039 834	7 435
27.9.2016	13 047 259	7 425
28.9.2016	13 054 675	7 415
29.9.2016	13 062 079	7 405
30.9.2016	13 069 474	7 395
1.10.2016	13 076 859	7 385
2.10.2016	13 084 233	7 374
3.10.2016	13 091 597	7 364
4.10.2016	13 098 952	7 354
5.10.2016	13 106 296	7 344
6.10.2016	13 113 630	7 334
7.10.2016	13 120 954	7 324
8.10.2016	13 128 267	7 314
9.10.2016	13 135 571	7 304
10.10.2016	13 142 865	7 294
11.10.2016	13 150 149	7 284
12.10.2016	13 157 423	7 274
13.10.2016	13 164 686	7 264
14.10.2016	13 171 940	7 254
15.10.2016	13 179 184	7 244
16.10.2016	13 186 418	7 234
17.10.2016	13 193 642	7 224
18.10.2016	13 200 856	7 214
19.10.2016	13 208 060	7 204
20.10.2016	13 215 254	7 194
21.10.2016	13 222 439	7 184
22.10.2016	13 229 613	7 174
23.10.2016	13 236 778	7 165
24.10.2016	13 243 932	7 155
25.10.2016	13 251 077	7 145
26.10.2016	13 258 213	7 135
27.10.2016	13 265 338	7 125
28.10.2016	13 272 454	7 116
29.10.2016	13 279 559	7 106
30.10.2016	13 286 655	7 096
31.10.2016	13 293 742	7 086
1.11.2016	13 300 818	7 077
2.11.2016	13 307 885	7 067
3.11.2016	13 314 942	7 057
4.11.2016	13 321 990	7 047
5.11.2016	13 329 028	7 038
6.11.2016	13 336 056	7 028
7.11.2016	13 343 074	7 018
8.11.2016	13 350 083	7 009
9.11.2016	13 357 082	6 999
10.11.2016	13 364 072	6 990
11.11.2016	13 371 052	6 980
12.11.2016	13 378 022	6 970
13.11.2016	13 384 983	6 961
14.11.2016	13 391 934	6 951
15.11.2016	13 398 876	6 942
16.11.2016	13 405 808	6 932
17.11.2016	13 412 731	6 923
18.11.2016	13 419 644	6 913
19.11.2016	13 426 548	6 904
20.11.2016	13 433 442	6 894
21.11.2016	13 440 327	6 885
22.11.2016	13 447 202	6 875
23.11.2016	13 454 068	6 866
24.11.2016	13 460 924	6 856
25.11.2016	13 467 771	6 847
26.11.2016	13 474 609	6 838
27.11.2016	13 481 437	6 828
28.11.2016	13 488 256	6 819
29.11.2016	13 495 065	6 809
30.11.2016	13 501 865	6 800
1.12.2016	13 508 656	6 791
2.12.2016	13 515 437	6 781
3.12.2016	13 522 209	6 772
4.12.2016	13 528 972	6 763
5.12.2016	13 535 726	6 754
6.12.2016	13 542 470	6 744
7.12.2016	13 549 205	6 735
8.12.2016	13 555 931	6 726
9.12.2016	13 562 647	6 717
10.12.2016	13 569 355	6 707
11.12.2016	13 576 053	6 698
12.12.2016	13 582 742	6 689
13.12.2016	13 589 421	6 680
14.12.2016	13 596 092	6 671
15.12.2016	13 602 753	6 661
16.12.2016	13 609 405	6 652
17.12.2016	13 616 048	6 643
18.12.2016	13 622 682	6 634
19.12.2016	13 629 307	6 625
20.12.2016	13 635 923	6 616
21.12.2016	13 642 530	6 607
22.12.2016	13 649 127	6 598
23.12.2016	13 655 716	6 589
24.12.2016	13 662 295	6 579
25.12.2016	13 668 866	6 570
26.12.2016	13 675 427	6 561
27.12.2016	13 681 979	6 552
28.12.2016	13 688 523	6 543
29.12.2016	13 695 057	6 534
30.12.2016	13 701 583	6 525
31.12.2016	13 708 099	6 516
1.1.2017	13 714 607	6 508
2.1.2017	13 721 105	6 499
3.1.2017	13 727 595	6 490
4.1.2017	13 734 076	6 481
5.1.2017	13 740 548	6 472
6.1.2017	13 747 011	6 463
7.1.2017	13 753 465	6 454
8.1.2017	13 759 910	6 445
9.1.2017	13 766 346	6 436
10.1.2017	13 772 774	6 428
11.1.2017	13 779 193	6 419
12.1.2017	13 785 603	6 410
13.1.2017	13 792 004	6 401
14.1.2017	13 798 396	6 392
15.1.2017	13 804 780	6 384
16.1.2017	13 811 154	6 375
17.1.2017	13 817 520	6 366
18.1.2017	13 823 878	6 357
19.1.2017	13 830 226	6 349
20.1.2017	13 836 566	6 340
21.1.2017	13 842 897	6 331
22.1.2017	13 849 219	6 322
23.1.2017	13 855 533	6 314
24.1.2017	13 861 838	6 305
25.1.2017	13 868 135	6 296
26.1.2017	13 874 422	6 288
27.1.2017	13 880 702	6 279
28.1.2017	13 886 972	6 271
29.1.2017	13 893 234	6 262
30.1.2017	13 899 487	6 253
31.1.2017	13 905 732	6 245
1.2.2017	13 911 968	6 236
2.2.2017	13 918 196	6 228
3.2.2017	13 924 415	6 219
4.2.2017	13 930 625	6 210
5.2.2017	13 936 827	6 202
6.2.2017	13 943 021	6 193
7.2.2017	13 949 205	6 185
8.2.2017	13 955 382	6 176
9.2.2017	13 961 550	6 168
10.2.2017	13 967 709	6 159
11.2.2017	13 973 860	6 151
12.2.2017	13 980 003	6 143
13.2.2017	13 986 137	6 134
14.2.2017	13 992 263	6 126
15.2.2017	13 998 380	6 117
16.2.2017	14 004 489	6 109
17.2.2017	14 010 589	6 101
18.2.2017	14 016 682	6 092
19.2.2017	14 022 765	6 084
20.2.2017	14 028 841	6 075
21.2.2017	14 034 908	6 067
22.2.2017	14 040 967	6 059
23.2.2017	14 047 017	6 050
24.2.2017	14 053 059	6 042
25.2.2017	14 059 093	6 034
26.2.2017	14 065 118	6 026
27.2.2017	14 071 136	6 017
28.2.2017	14 077 145	6 009
1.3.2017	14 083 145	6 001
2.3.2017	14 089 138	5 992
3.3.2017	14 095 122	5 984
4.3.2017	14 101 098	5 976
5.3.2017	14 107 066	5 968
6.3.2017	14 113 026	5 960
7.3.2017	14 118 977	5 951
8.3.2017	14 124 920	5 943
9.3.2017	14 130 856	5 935
10.3.2017	14 136 782	5 927
11.3.2017	14 142 701	5 919
12.3.2017	14 148 612	5 911
13.3.2017	14 154 515	5 903
14.3.2017	14 160 409	5 894
15.3.2017	14 166 295	5 886
16.3.2017	14 172 174	5 878
17.3.2017	14 178 044	5 870
18.3.2017	14 183 906	5 862
19.3.2017	14 189 760	5 854
20.3.2017	14 195 606	5 846
21.3.2017	14 201 444	5 838
22.3.2017	14 207 274	5 830
23.3.2017	14 213 096	5 822
24.3.2017	14 218 910	5 814
25.3.2017	14 224 717	5 806
26.3.2017	14 230 515	5 798
27.3.2017	14 236 305	5 790
28.3.2017	14 242 087	5 782
29.3.2017	14 247 861	5 774
30.3.2017	14 253 627	5 766
31.3.2017	14 259 386	5 758
1.4.2017	14 265 136	5 750
2.4.2017	14 270 879	5 743
3.4.2017	14 276 613	5 735
4.4.2017	14 282 340	5 727
5.4.2017	14 288 059	5 719
6.4.2017	14 293 770	5 711
7.4.2017	14 299 474	5 703
8.4.2017	14 305 169	5 695
9.4.2017	14 310 857	5 688
10.4.2017	14 316 536	5 680
11.4.2017	14 322 208	5 672
12.4.2017	14 327 872	5 664
13.4.2017	14 333 529	5 656
14.4.2017	14 339 178	5 649
15.4.2017	14 344 818	5 641
16.4.2017	14 350 452	5 633
17.4.2017	14 356 077	5 625
18.4.2017	14 361 695	5 618
19.4.2017	14 367 305	5 610
20.4.2017	14 372 907	5 602
21.4.2017	14 378 501	5 595
22.4.2017	14 384 088	5 587
23.4.2017	14 389 667	5 579
24.4.2017	14 395 239	5 572
25.4.2017	14 400 803	5 564
26.4.2017	14 406 359	5 556
27.4.2017	14 411 908	5 549
28.4.2017	14 417 449	5 541
29.4.2017	14 422 982	5 533
30.4.2017	14 428 508	5 526
1.5.2017	14 434 026	5 518
2.5.2017	14 439 537	5 511
3.5.2017	14 445 040	5 503
4.5.2017	14 450 535	5 496
5.5.2017	14 456 023	5 488
6.5.2017	14 461 504	5 480
7.5.2017	14 466 977	5 473
8.5.2017	14 472 442	5 465
9.5.2017	14 477 900	5 458
10.5.2017	14 483 350	5 450
11.5.2017	14 488 793	5 443
12.5.2017	14 494 229	5 435
13.5.2017	14 499 657	5 428
14.5.2017	14 505 077	5 420
15.5.2017	14 510 490	5 413
16.5.2017	14 515 896	5 406
17.5.2017	14 521 294	5 398
18.5.2017	14 526 685	5 391
19.5.2017	14 532 068	5 383
20.5.2017	14 537 444	5 376
21.5.2017	14 542 813	5 369
22.5.2017	14 548 174	5 361
23.5.2017	14 553 528	5 354
24.5.2017	14 558 874	5 347
25.5.2017	14 564 214	5 339
26.5.2017	14 569 545	5 332
27.5.2017	14 574 870	5 325
28.5.2017	14 580 187	5 317
29.5.2017	14 585 497	5 310
30.5.2017	14 590 800	5 303
31.5.2017	14 596 095	5 295
1.6.2017	14 601 383	5 288
2.6.2017	14 606 664	5 281
3.6.2017	14 611 937	5 274
4.6.2017	14 617 204	5 266
5.6.2017	14 622 463	5 259
6.6.2017	14 627 715	5 252
7.6.2017	14 632 959	5 245
8.6.2017	14 638 197	5 237
9.6.2017	14 643 427	5 230
10.6.2017	14 648 650	5 223
11.6.2017	14 653 866	5 216
12.6.2017	14 659 075	5 209
13.6.2017	14 664 276	5 202
14.6.2017	14 669 471	5 194
15.6.2017	14 674 658	5 187
16.6.2017	14 679 838	5 180
17.6.2017	14 685 011	5 173
18.6.2017	14 690 177	5 166
19.6.2017	14 695 336	5 159
20.6.2017	14 700 488	5 152
21.6.2017	14 705 632	5 145
22.6.2017	14 710 770	5 138
23.6.2017	14 715 901	5 131
24.6.2017	14 721 024	5 124
25.6.2017	14 726 141	5 116
26.6.2017	14 731 250	5 109
27.6.2017	14 736 353	5 102
28.6.2017	14 741 448	5 095
29.6.2017	14 746 536	5 088
30.6.2017	14 751 618	5 081
1.7.2017	14 756 692	5 074
2.7.2017	14 761 760	5 068
3.7.2017	14 766 820	5 061
4.7.2017	14 771 874	5 054
5.7.2017	14 776 921	5 047
6.7.2017	14 781 960	5 040
7.7.2017	14 786 993	5 033
8.7.2017	14 792 019	5 026
9.7.2017	14 797 038	5 019
10.7.2017	14 802 050	5 012
11.7.2017	14 807 056	5 005
12.7.2017	14 812 054	4 998
13.7.2017	14 817 045	4 991
14.7.2017	14 822 030	4 985
15.7.2017	14 827 008	4 978
16.7.2017	14 831 979	4 971
17.7.2017	14 836 943	4 964
18.7.2017	14 841 900	4 957
19.7.2017	14 846 851	4 950
20.7.2017	14 851 794	4 944
21.7.2017	14 856 731	4 937
22.7.2017	14 861 661	4 930
23.7.2017	14 866 585	4 923
24.7.2017	14 871 501	4 917
25.7.2017	14 876 411	4 910
26.7.2017	14 881 314	4 903
27.7.2017	14 886 211	4 896
28.7.2017	14 891 100	4 890
29.7.2017	14 895 983	4 883
30.7.2017	14 900 860	4 876
31.7.2017	14 905 729	4 870
1.8.2017	14 910 592	4 863
2.8.2017	14 915 448	4 856
3.8.2017	14 920 298	4 849
4.8.2017	14 925 140	4 843
5.8.2017	14 929 977	4 836
6.8.2017	14 934 806	4 830
7.8.2017	14 939 629	4 823
8.8.2017	14 944 445	4 816
9.8.2017	14 949 255	4 810
10.8.2017	14 954 058	4 803
11.8.2017	14 958 855	4 796
12.8.2017	14 963 644	4 790
13.8.2017	14 968 428	4 783
14.8.2017	14 973 205	4 777
15.8.2017	14 977 975	4 770
16.8.2017	14 982 738	4 764
17.8.2017	14 987 495	4 757
18.8.2017	14 992 246	4 751
19.8.2017	14 996 990	4 744
20.8.2017	15 001 728	4 738
21.8.2017	15 006 459	4 731
22.8.2017	15 011 183	4 725
23.8.2017	15 015 901	4 718
24.8.2017	15 020 613	4 712
25.8.2017	15 025 318	4 705
26.8.2017	15 030 016	4 699
27.8.2017	15 034 708	4 692
28.8.2017	15 039 394	4 686
29.8.2017	15 044 073	4 679
30.8.2017	15 048 746	4 673
31.8.2017	15 053 413	4 666
1.9.2017	15 058 073	4 660
2.9.2017	15 062 726	4 654
3.9.2017	15 067 374	4 647
4.9.2017	15 072 015	4 641
5.9.2017	15 076 649	4 634
6.9.2017	15 081 277	4 628
7.9.2017	15 085 899	4 622
8.9.2017	15 090 514	4 615
9.9.2017	15 095 123	4 609
10.9.2017	15 099 726	4 603
11.9.2017	15 104 323	4 596
12.9.2017	15 108 913	4 590
13.9.2017	15 113 496	4 584
14.9.2017	15 118 074	4 578
15.9.2017	15 122 645	4 571
16.9.2017	15 127 210	4 565
17.9.2017	15 131 769	4 559
18.9.2017	15 136 321	4 552
19.9.2017	15 140 867	4 546
20.9.2017	15 145 407	4 540
21.9.2017	15 149 941	4 534
22.9.2017	15 154 469	4 527
23.9.2017	15 158 990	4 521
24.9.2017	15 163 505	4 515
25.9.2017	15 168 014	4 509
26.9.2017	15 172 516	4 503
27.9.2017	15 177 013	4 496
28.9.2017	15 181 503	4 490
29.9.2017	15 185 987	4 484
30.9.2017	15 190 465	4 478
1.10.2017	15 194 937	4 472
2.10.2017	15 199 403	4 466
3.10.2017	15 203 862	4 460
4.10.2017	15 208 316	4 453
5.10.2017	15 212 763	4 447
6.10.2017	15 217 204	4 441
7.10.2017	15 221 639	4 435
8.10.2017	15 226 068	4 429
9.10.2017	15 230 491	4 423
10.10.2017	15 234 908	4 417
11.10.2017	15 239 319	4 411
12.10.2017	15 243 724	4 405
13.10.2017	15 248 122	4 399
14.10.2017	15 252 515	4 393
15.10.2017	15 256 902	4 387
16.10.2017	15 261 282	4 381
17.10.2017	15 265 657	4 375
18.10.2017	15 270 025	4 369
19.10.2017	15 274 388	4 363
20.10.2017	15 278 744	4 357
21.10.2017	15 283 095	4 351
22.10.2017	15 287 440	4 345
23.10.2017	15 291 778	4 339
24.10.2017	15 296 111	4 333
25.10.2017	15 300 438	4 327
26.10.2017	15 304 758	4 321
27.10.2017	15 309 073	4 315
28.10.2017	15 313 382	4 309
29.10.2017	15 317 685	4 303
30.10.2017	15 321 982	4 297
31.10.2017	15 326 274	4 291
1.11.2017	15 330 559	4 285
2.11.2017	15 334 838	4 279
3.11.2017	15 339 112	4 274
4.11.2017	15 343 380	4 268
5.11.2017	15 347 641	4 262
6.11.2017	15 351 897	4 256
7.11.2017	15 356 147	4 250
8.11.2017	15 360 392	4 244
9.11.2017	15 364 630	4 238
10.11.2017	15 368 863	4 233
11.11.2017	15 373 090	4 227
12.11.2017	15 377 311	4 221
13.11.2017	15 381 526	4 215
14.11.2017	15 385 735	4 209
15.11.2017	15 389 939	4 204
16.11.2017	15 394 137	4 198
17.11.2017	15 398 329	4 192
18.11.2017	15 402 515	4 186
19.11.2017	15 406 696	4 181
20.11.2017	15 410 871	4 175
21.11.2017	15 415 040	4 169
22.11.2017	15 419 203	4 163
23.11.2017	15 423 361	4 158
24.11.2017	15 427 513	4 152
25.11.2017	15 431 659	4 146
26.11.2017	15 435 800	4 141
27.11.2017	15 439 935	4 135
28.11.2017	15 444 064	4 129
29.11.2017	15 448 188	4 124
30.11.2017	15 452 305	4 118
1.12.2017	15 456 418	4 112
2.12.2017	15 460 524	4 107
3.12.2017	15 464 625	4 101
4.12.2017	15 468 721	4 095
5.12.2017	15 472 810	4 090
6.12.2017	15 476 894	4 084
7.12.2017	15 480 973	4 078
8.12.2017	15 485 046	4 073
9.12.2017	15 489 113	4 067
10.12.2017	15 493 175	4 062
11.12.2017	15 497 231	4 056
12.12.2017	15 501 281	4 051
13.12.2017	15 505 326	4 045
14.12.2017	15 509 366	4 039
15.12.2017	15 513 400	4 034
16.12.2017	15 517 428	4 028
17.12.2017	15 521 451	4 023
18.12.2017	15 525 468	4 017
19.12.2017	15 529 480	4 012
20.12.2017	15 533 486	4 006
21.12.2017	15 537 487	4 001
22.12.2017	15 541 482	3 995
23.12.2017	15 545 472	3 990
24.12.2017	15 549 456	3 984
25.12.2017	15 553 435	3 979
26.12.2017	15 557 408	3 973
27.12.2017	15 561 376	3 968
28.12.2017	15 565 339	3 962
29.12.2017	15 569 296	3 957
30.12.2017	15 573 247	3 952
31.12.2017	15 577 193	3 946

I am a long term supporter of xmr and I see the niche for this currency as well as the quality of development but I have concerns that we can keep pace with inflation in terms of 6-12 months at given prices under certain circumstances.

At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

My first assumption, and this is debatable is that bitcoins network effect and probably the price behaves exponential over the course of time.

My second assumption is that xmr is a far more risky investment than btc, from a) the perspective of network effects and b) the economic circumstances e.g. inflation rate and c) the stage of development. If we compare the inflation rate of xmr to btcs inflation rate we see that the inflation has a factor of 20 compared to btc.

What is unclear to me is if there are strong or even overly strong overlapping effects from bitcoins network effects on xmr. Maybe I completely underestimate xmrs' network effects

My problem at given prices and given assumption is risk/reward ratio for investors given the alternative to hold btc.

I can be horribly wrong with this analysis but that would be good for me ;)

 

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on August 22, 2014, 01:53:13 PM
Quote from: nakaone on August 22, 2014, 01:49:16 PM
At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

Litecoin will require at least $20,000,000 in the same time period to remain where it currently is, and that is after having a cap of over a hundred million $.

If Monero starts getting accepted by the community as the default anonymous coin and as second place to Bitcoin, $10,000,000 to sustain the current price is nothing.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on August 22, 2014, 02:02:05 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on August 22, 2014, 01:53:13 PM
Quote from: nakaone on August 22, 2014, 01:49:16 PM
At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

Litecoin will require at least $20,000,000 in the same time period to remain where it currently is, and that is after having a cap of over a hundred million $.

If Monero starts getting accepted by the community as the default anonymous coin and as second place to Bitcoin, $10,000,000 to sustain the current price is nothing.



litecoin is out of debate (for me it is overvalued crap, which at best solves the function to be an insurance for a 51% attack on btc or something similiar).

it is just the comparison of xmr and btc.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on August 22, 2014, 02:14:11 PM
Quote from: nakaone on August 22, 2014, 02:02:05 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on August 22, 2014, 01:53:13 PM
Quote from: nakaone on August 22, 2014, 01:49:16 PM
At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

Litecoin will require at least $20,000,000 in the same time period to remain where it currently is, and that is after having a cap of over a hundred million $.

If Monero starts getting accepted by the community as the default anonymous coin and as second place to Bitcoin, $10,000,000 to sustain the current price is nothing.



litecoin is out of debate (for me it is overvalued crap, which at best solves the function to be an insurance for a 51% attack on btc or something similiar).

it is just the comparison of xmr and btc.

That makes things more interesting!

Bitcoin requires about $1.8 million per day to sustain its price, If Monero attracted x% of that investment as being the only true alternative to Bitcoin because of its completely different purpose and design, then we could sustain a price of y.

x = 1%, y = 0.0021
x = 5%, y = 0.01

I might have messed up my math {
- sustain bitcoin @ $500 for a year = $650mil
- xmr coins now 2.9 mil - xmr coins in a year 9 mil = 6.1 mil xmr coins.
- get percent of bitcoin investment per year. so 5% = $32mil
- amount @ 5% = $32mil / price of bitcoin @ $500 / amount of XMR coins = y
}

But it seems to work out that if Monero captures 1% of Bitcoin investment, then we are looking at 0.002 which is a disaster, but 5% would be very high at 0.01

I honestly believe that capturing 3% - 5% of the money going into Bitcoin is certainly possible.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 02:17:29 PM
Quote from: nakaone on August 22, 2014, 01:49:16 PM
At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

Oh you of little math & logic! :)

What you are saying, essentially, is that in the course of 12 months, Monero the currency, can only accommodate new buyers by $10 million without the price increasing, potentially a lot.

The inflation has been decreasing from the day 1, the adoption has been increasing, and the price is roughly 15 times higher than in the inception, and about 3 times higher than the Cryptonote Exchange era.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on August 22, 2014, 02:44:03 PM
Quote from: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 02:17:29 PM
Quote from: nakaone on August 22, 2014, 01:49:16 PM
At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

Oh you of little math & logic! :)


you have to put in the context to the other assumptions ;)


Quote from: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 02:17:29 PM
What you are saying, essentially, is that in the course of 12 months, Monero the currency, can only accommodate new buyers by $10 million without the price increasing, potentially a lot.

well glass is half full or half empty - but yes one can see it from this perspective ;)

Quote from: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 02:17:29 PM

The inflation has been decreasing from the day 1, the adoption has been increasing, and the price is roughly 15 times higher than in the inception, and about 3 times higher than the Cryptonote Exchange era.


the price development is quite irrelevant, especially from inception. nxt has a price of 3 million times the cap of the inception, obv. there are not as many users compared to the price delopment. given altcoins nature xmrs price devlopment until now is even moderate (which is good)

adoption is what matters - if and really IF this is increasing at a good pace, CONSTANTLY (do you have assumptions how important a constant new influx of users is?) we can take your assumption.

I think the user base is already, compared to other coins quite big. Every rational investors, given inflation design, buys monero as early as possible. For several natural reasons the development of user base is non-constant over time and there is obviously a lot of space for new maybe little less tech savyy user to join us at a later point of time.

I think drawingthesun offered a good mathematical analysis.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dEBRUYNE on August 22, 2014, 04:25:36 PM
Since the speculation thread is closed, can we discuss some of it here?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 04:33:55 PM
Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 22, 2014, 04:25:36 PM
Since the speculation thread is closed, can we discuss some of it here?

Oh no. Perhaps you can, but only quality comments please. :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dEBRUYNE on August 22, 2014, 04:42:55 PM
Quote from: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 04:33:55 PM
Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 22, 2014, 04:25:36 PM
Since the speculation thread is closed, can we discuss some of it here?

Oh no. Perhaps you can, but only quality comments please. :)

Haha oke! It was not my intention to troll here :p But on topic: strong resistance @ 0.004 zone, need to break that first. I think we will see some panic buying if we break that zone.

EDIT: Aminorex also said that 0.004 was a potential buy zone, because if it would reach there the cup and handle formation would be complete

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dEBRUYNE on August 22, 2014, 06:05:40 PM
Posted in another topic, also relates to monero:

Quote from: AlexGR on August 22, 2014, 07:25:04 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggB0Wh_g33M&feature=youtu.be&t=24m30s

Antonopoulos about people switch to anonymous currencies if NY regs stick.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 06:21:22 PM
Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 22, 2014, 04:42:55 PM
Quote from: rpietila on August 22, 2014, 04:33:55 PM
Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 22, 2014, 04:25:36 PM
Since the speculation thread is closed, can we discuss some of it here?

Oh no. Perhaps you can, but only quality comments please. :)

Haha oke! It was not my intention to troll here :p But on topic: strong resistance @ 0.004 zone, need to break that first. I think we will see some panic buying if we break that zone.

EDIT: Aminorex also said that 0.004 was a potential buy zone, because if it would reach there the cup and handle formation would be complete

I was also prophetic saying that 0.002-0.004 was the premier buy zone. I think this was in May I said it, correct me if I'm wrong! :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 23, 2014, 06:15:57 AM
"Blessed is the man who does not walk in the council of the wicked or stand in way of sinners or sit in the seat of mockers" --Psalm 1:1

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:31:06 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 19, 2014, 12:02:40 PM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 18, 2014, 10:44:43 PM
Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

anyone who deems an altcoin an investment on grounds of its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects is disproportionately likely to have need of a manhattan psychiatrist (and ability to pay).  i may go there myself.  do they still prescribe quaaludes?

For what it's worth, I am a Certified Valuation Analyst (NACVA).  It's not my main line of consulting work, but I do about 10-12 valuations per year as a CVA.

As a sideline venture, I'd be happy to accept XMR for valuation work.  A typical valuation for most small-to-medium sized, privately held businesses would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

I'm most familiar with Fair Marvet Value work in accordance with IRS Revenue Ruling 59-60.  I've done work for:
--valuations for SBA loans (a bit of a specialty)
--valuations related to other bank lending
--gift tax issues
--acquisitions
--estate settlments

Have also done some strategic acquisition work, but if you're looking for somebody to lay down some line of bullshit about why your start-up is worth tens of millions due to some proprietary technology, I'm probably not the guy.  My valuation work is largely by the numbers and I'm happy to support it in any eventuality, but if you end up in court and I have to give deposition or testimony, that's not included in the price.  I'd have to do an hourly charge for it.

Of course, my name and CVA certificate will be all over it, so I'm not sure what the value would be of anonymity, but maybe the discount makes a difference!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on August 25, 2014, 03:34:13 PM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:31:06 PM
would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:55:00 PM
Quote from: smooth on August 25, 2014, 03:34:13 PM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:31:06 PM
would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.


Oops!  Damn...thanks to the 25% or so price appreciation in the last 3 days!  Holy hell.  I had kicked around a discount rate over the weekend and I figured it should be 10-15%.  But the price has really shot up.

OK...rates TBD, but figure a 15% discount on USD rates.  Better?  I swear, 1000 XMR actually WAS a discount when I got to work this morning!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: binaryFate on August 25, 2014, 04:03:59 PM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:55:00 PM
Quote from: smooth on August 25, 2014, 03:34:13 PM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:31:06 PM
would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.


Oops!  Damn...thanks to the 25% or so price appreciation in the last 3 days!  Holy hell.  I had kicked around a discount rate over the weekend and I figured it should be 10-15%.  But the price has really shot up.

OK...rates TBD, but figure a 15% discount on USD rates.  Better?  I swear, 1000 XMR actually WAS a discount when I got to work this morning!

  :D

Really nice to see IRL professionals openly accepting XMR. Wish you success with it, you're a pioneer!


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on August 25, 2014, 04:18:33 PM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:31:06 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 19, 2014, 12:02:40 PM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 18, 2014, 10:44:43 PM
Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

anyone who deems an altcoin an investment on grounds of its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects is disproportionately likely to have need of a manhattan psychiatrist (and ability to pay).  i may go there myself.  do they still prescribe quaaludes?

quote

Interesting!

How did you fall into that line of business?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 04:52:07 PM
Quote from: statdude on August 25, 2014, 04:18:33 PM

Interesting!

How did you fall into that line of business?

If that question was directed to me, I've been doing small business consulting for just over 8 years.  I am the Director for an organization that promotes economic development through entrepreneurship.  It's a partnership between the US Small Business Administration, the Dept of Commerce of the state in which I live, a local university (Research 1, member of AAU) and some other eco devo proponents.

Much of what I do is NOT related to valuation, but still pretty interesting.  My job is to help people start and grow businesses.  Usually starts with Three M's analysis--Management, Market, Money. 

With start-ups, I usually help them compile information and put together a business plan so that they can put their best foot forward to banks/investors.  For existing businesses, I might help them understand markets by looking at things like IBISWorld industry reports, ARCGIS data and tapestry segments, and financial benchmarks (RMA).  I work with people on things like cash flow projections, budgets, marketing plans and such.

Many of our clients are Main Street type businesses--coffee shops, retail, hair salons, plumbers, etc.  But we do get our share of entrepreneurs who can (and do!) scale.  It is often fascinating, usually educational, and generally pretty fun.

The valuation piece is a small but growing part of what I do.  As of about a year ago, the SBA started REQUIRING a certified valuation for any loan that they guarantee if it involves a transfer of assets worth $250K or more.  Of course, seeing this coming, a couple of years ago, I started studying for the CVA.  Valuations can be ridiculously expensive, and this is a real impediment to a business seeking a $250K to $1MM loan.  They can easily pay 1% of the loan value as an up-front cost of getting the loan.  My organization isn't supposed to actively compete with the private sector, but the valuation mills aren't particularly interested in the smaller jobs. 

So I do most valuation work with businesses around $5 million in revenues and less.  If it's in-state, I have to do it through my organization, but I can do solo practitioner work anywhere else.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on August 25, 2014, 05:48:06 PM

Sounds like a dream job.
All the fun of M&A, none of the pressure of working in PE/IB.
Plus, the smaller stuff is probably really rewarding.
Are you ever requested for actual broker work (buy/sell businesses)?


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on August 25, 2014, 05:56:14 PM
Let's go back to Economics. Monero is approaching a great milestone - ATH marketcap!

At 3.05 million coins, a 0.00433 BTC/XMR daily average is needed to beat the previous high from June :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 25, 2014, 06:53:34 PM
Quote from: rpietila on August 25, 2014, 05:56:14 PM
Let's go back to Economics. Monero is approaching a great milestone - ATH marketcap!

At 3.05 million coins, a 0.00433 BTC/XMR daily average is needed to beat the previous high from June :)

And this time its not made of froth.  There's real, dense support for it.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 07:05:25 PM
Quote from: smooth on August 25, 2014, 03:34:13 PM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:31:06 PM
would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.


Back to a discount at 1000 XMR.  But not much of one...and not for long, I suspect.  I'd suspect we might get that ATH cap right after Labor Day.  And onward.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Jungian on August 25, 2014, 07:11:16 PM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 07:05:25 PM
Quote from: smooth on August 25, 2014, 03:34:13 PM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:31:06 PM
would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.


Back to a discount at 1000 XMR.  But not much of one...and not for long, I suspect.  I'd suspect we might get that ATH cap right after Labor Day.  And onward.

You should maybe use a fixed discount instead. Like XMR equiavalent of 2000$ minus X%

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: cAPSLOCK on August 25, 2014, 08:11:38 PM
Quote from: Jungian on August 25, 2014, 07:11:16 PM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 07:05:25 PM
Quote from: smooth on August 25, 2014, 03:34:13 PM
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:31:06 PM
would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.


Back to a discount at 1000 XMR.  But not much of one...and not for long, I suspect.  I'd suspect we might get that ATH cap right after Labor Day.  And onward.

You should maybe use a fixed discount instead. Like XMR equiavalent of 2000$ minus X%

He did...
Quote from: vuduchyld on August 25, 2014, 03:55:00 PM

OK...rates TBD, but figure a 15% discount on USD rates.  Better?  I swear, 1000 XMR actually WAS a discount when I got to work this morning!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on August 28, 2014, 02:34:38 PM
Quote from: noob2001 on August 28, 2014, 02:32:51 PM
Right, so Monero is now the replacement of Bitcoin?

And, I heard on the trollbox that XMR will hit $1000 a coin.

If true, Monero will have a market cap greater than bitcoin, however, monero doesn't have any economy.

 ??? confused!
All true. Dont be confused my friend, we are working on starting the economy the next days. (+ a casino is already live)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 28, 2014, 03:10:27 PM
Once you accept that currency has value because it is useful, you have to accept the implication that financial transactions have utility as well, because they are necessary, integral, to the operation of the currency, it's growth and efficient discounting.  When we account the GDP of a nation, we do not exclude financial transactions.  No more should financial transactions be excluded from considering the economy of XMR.  Financial transactions are a form of dealing in intellectual property.  Unlike a movie or a book, this intellectual property has productive material use.

The non-financial portion of the XMR economy is growing much more rapidly than did the non-financial portion of the BTC economy.  Often this will not be visible in XMR because transactions are vastly more private, so proxy methods must be used to estimate their scale.  I would very much like a payment gateway which enables me to transparently use XMR, to send to a BTC address, and to receive BTC in the form of XMR.   It's a relatively simply thing to implement, and makes it more practical to save primarily in XMR.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Skinnkavaj on August 28, 2014, 03:11:51 PM
The economics of Monero just got a lot stronger now since rpietila is offering CALL and PUT options.
Read more how it works here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=758443.0

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on August 28, 2014, 06:11:12 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 28, 2014, 03:10:27 PM
I would very much like a payment gateway which enables me to transparently use XMR, to send to a BTC address, and to receive BTC in the form of XMR.   It's a relatively simply thing to implement, and makes it more practical to save primarily in XMR.
Implement it. I would run it for the community as stable clearnet service and HS, to support the community/ecology.
(In normal TX limits. I dont have super much BTC or XMR.)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: BldSwtTrs on August 30, 2014, 02:26:38 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 28, 2014, 03:10:27 PM
Once you accept that currency has value because it is useful, you have to accept the implication that financial transactions have utility as well, because they are necessary, integral, to the operation of the currency, it's growth and efficient discounting.  When we account the GDP of a nation, we do not exclude financial transactions.  No more should financial transactions be excluded from considering the economy of XMR.  Financial transactions are a form of dealing in intellectual property.  Unlike a movie or a book, this intellectual property has productive material use.

The non-financial portion of the XMR economy is growing much more rapidly than did the non-financial portion of the BTC economy.  Often this will not be visible in XMR because transactions are vastly more private, so proxy methods must be used to estimate their scale.  I would very much like a payment gateway which enables me to transparently use XMR, to send to a BTC address, and to receive BTC in the form of XMR.   It's a relatively simply thing to implement, and makes it more practical to save primarily in XMR.

Well, yes we do. Financial transactions are not counted in GDP.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: NewLiberty on September 03, 2014, 04:41:31 AM
Quote from: dewdeded on August 28, 2014, 06:11:12 PM
Quote from: aminorex on August 28, 2014, 03:10:27 PM
I would very much like a payment gateway which enables me to transparently use XMR, to send to a BTC address, and to receive BTC in the form of XMR.   It's a relatively simply thing to implement, and makes it more practical to save primarily in XMR.
Implement it. I would run it for the community as stable clearnet service and HS, to support the community/ecology.
(In normal TX limits. I dont have super much BTC or XMR.)

This is pretty much just an exchange API, yes?  Are you comfortable with the poloniex pricing used for it?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: cAPSLOCK on September 03, 2014, 09:57:15 PM
Wave 2 consolidation here?  Where is the volume though?  And is this too bullish?  Plus I am about as gifted at EW as I am astro physics. ;)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: canth on September 03, 2014, 10:13:59 PM
Quote from: rikkejohn on September 03, 2014, 10:11:39 PM
Great thread, a sudo-economist with a captive audience that will lap it up because it uses words misappropriated from an Introduction to Economics for 1st year Bachelor students.

I once did a few units in sociology, and found that if it appeared that I had swallowed a sociology dictionary, my grades went through the roof.

So tiresome. So easy. No effort required.


You are a moron and add nothing to the conversation. No substance = ignore.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on September 03, 2014, 10:16:40 PM
Quote from: cAPSLOCK on September 03, 2014, 09:57:15 PM
Where is the volume though? 
I hear that a lot, just before the market clearing price takes a leg up.  In fact, almost every time, I hear that.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: iCEBREAKER on September 03, 2014, 10:35:00 PM
Quote from: rikkejohn on September 03, 2014, 10:11:39 PM
Great thread, a sudo-economist with a captive audience that will lap it up because it uses words misappropriated from an Introduction to Economics for 1st year Bachelor students.

I once did a few units in sociology, and found that if it appeared that I had swallowed a sociology dictionary, my grades went through the roof.

So tiresome. So easy. No effort required.

Sociology?  That's just warmed over Marxism, a blow-off underwater basket weaving field of pseudo-study best left to scholar-athletes and rich kids who want to party on their way to law school.  I would be embarrassed to get anything but an A, even before making any effort at regurgitating their jargon.  But I'm not surprised it gave you trouble.

The rigor of your Econ 1 class depends on where you go to school.  Mine was designed as a weeder class for intended Econ majors and so was very thorough, while I have no doubt yours was targeted at a much lower caliber of student.   ;)

Please do carry on, it is amusing watching you player hate on the guy with a crypto-castle full of wine, cigars, and blonde ballerinas.   8)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: cAPSLOCK on September 03, 2014, 11:01:59 PM
And just to be clear, I am not here for Risto, no disrespect for him.  I think of him as a shrewd investor, a bit of an auto didact, and someone who sees trends ahead of the curve, or someone very lucky.

He also relies on collective conversation about these topics.  It is THAT which I, and I would guess most others, are here for.

I am certainly NOT here for trolls.

Ignored.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: 2dogs on September 04, 2014, 05:19:21 AM
Frozen - going to have to apply an emergency patch and roll back to before the corrupted block.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Anotheranonlol on September 04, 2014, 06:21:47 AM
Quote from: 2dogs on September 04, 2014, 05:19:21 AM
Frozen - going to have to apply an emergency patch and roll back to before the corrupted block.

Luckily XMR/BBR window is still open on polo, and hitbtc

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on September 04, 2014, 08:17:46 AM
Speaking of short term prices, I am expecting 0.001 - 0.002 range when this gets sorted out.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: pinky on September 04, 2014, 08:37:13 AM
Quote from: drawingthesun on September 04, 2014, 08:17:46 AM
Speaking of short term prices, I am expecting 0.001 - 0.002 range when this gets sorted out.

We shall see, but I doubt people will panic so hard, after all they knew what they are buying - coin still under development and similiar things happened to other coins. But I might be wrong and this is the end.  ;D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on September 04, 2014, 08:45:24 AM
Quote from: drawingthesun on September 04, 2014, 08:17:46 AM
Speaking of short term prices, I am expecting 0.001 - 0.002 range when this gets sorted out.

Knowing that you are a supporter, you are just talking to your book. Shame on you!  ;D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on September 04, 2014, 08:52:20 AM
Quote from: rpietila on September 04, 2014, 08:45:24 AM
Quote from: drawingthesun on September 04, 2014, 08:17:46 AM
Speaking of short term prices, I am expecting 0.001 - 0.002 range when this gets sorted out.

Knowing that you are a supporter, you are just talking to your book. Shame on you!  ;D

I imagine that even if this flaw exists throughout all the CryptoNote coins, people will panic when the market unfreezes. Weak hands all around.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: statdude on September 04, 2014, 08:53:51 AM
If there is such panic, why no significant dumps on hitbtc or Mintpal?

I doubt there is much dumping so long as the dev team rises to the challenge.

I love dumps. Lots of panic buying on the way back up.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on September 04, 2014, 08:57:38 AM
Quote from: statdude on September 04, 2014, 08:53:51 AM
If there is such panic, why no significant dumps on hitbtc or Mintpal?

I doubt there is much dumping so long as the dev team rises to the challenge.

I love dumps. Lots of panic buying on the way back up.

I'm surprised that the price on mintpal is remaining stable.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on September 04, 2014, 11:43:00 AM
Quote from: drawingthesun on September 04, 2014, 08:57:38 AM
Quote from: statdude on September 04, 2014, 08:53:51 AM
If there is such panic, why no significant dumps on hitbtc or Mintpal?

I doubt there is much dumping so long as the dev team rises to the challenge.

I love dumps. Lots of panic buying on the way back up.

I'm surprised that the price on mintpal is remaining stable.

In Poloniex alone, there are 5000+ monero accounts, add all the other exchanges to the number. USA is sleeping. This thread is visited by 100 people. Maybe not BTC->XMR people, but everyone else coming to Monero, has seen forks before and don't care.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: NewLiberty on September 04, 2014, 11:52:45 AM
Quote from: rpietila on September 04, 2014, 11:43:00 AM
Quote from: drawingthesun on September 04, 2014, 08:57:38 AM
Quote from: statdude on September 04, 2014, 08:53:51 AM
If there is such panic, why no significant dumps on hitbtc or Mintpal?

I doubt there is much dumping so long as the dev team rises to the challenge.

I love dumps. Lots of panic buying on the way back up.

I'm surprised that the price on mintpal is remaining stable.

In Poloniex alone, there are 5000+ monero accounts, add all the other exchanges to the number. USA is sleeping. This thread is visited by 100 people. Maybe not BTC->XMR people, but everyone else coming to Monero, has seen forks before and don't care.

Yes, not so worried about the fork, Monero forks/orphans very frequently given the fast blocks, this is the longest fork tong by a big margin, >30 some blocks forked.
It may stimulate some interesting developments in the code for fast block resolution and consolidation.

It would be a good development if fork consolidation were advanced. 
For example if Dead fork tx that were not respent in the live fork before consolidation time may be retransmitted and spent within the good fork without manual intervention.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: infofront on September 04, 2014, 01:42:57 PM
Most Monero investors at this stage are seasoned cryptocurrency veterans I believe. I doubt many will panic sell over a fork.

If this was DogeCoin circa Feb., 2014, with a lot of relatively mainstream involvement, it might crash. Monero, OTOH, hasn't even broken the top 10 on coinmarketcap.com yet. We may as well be a fringe enthusiast cult.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Okurkabinladin on September 04, 2014, 01:53:02 PM
Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2014, 01:42:57 PM
Most Monero investors at this stage are seasoned cryptocurrency veterans I believe. I doubt many will panic sell over a fork.

If this was DogeCoin circa Feb., 2014, with a lot of relatively mainstream involvement, it might crash. Monero, OTOH, hasn't even broken the top 10 on coinmarketcap.com yet. We may as well be a fringe enthusiast cult.

Actually, that exactly what we are right now  ;) any ideas on when XMR will be unfrozen?

EDIT: Drawingthesun is right, so what, if majority of XMR holders are bitcoin veterans? Same can be said about virtually any other crypto, that doesn´t preclude volatility, especially in market this small. I´m still very bullish on monero, just not short term.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on September 04, 2014, 02:32:05 PM
Quote from: Okurkabinladin on September 04, 2014, 01:53:02 PM
Quote from: infofront on September 04, 2014, 01:42:57 PM
Most Monero investors at this stage are seasoned cryptocurrency veterans I believe. I doubt many will panic sell over a fork.

If this was DogeCoin circa Feb., 2014, with a lot of relatively mainstream involvement, it might crash. Monero, OTOH, hasn't even broken the top 10 on coinmarketcap.com yet. We may as well be a fringe enthusiast cult.

Actually, that exactly what we are right now  ;) any ideas on when XMR will be unfrozen?

EDIT: Drawingthesun is right, so what, if majority of XMR holders are bitcoin veterans? Same can be said about virtually any other crypto, that doesn´t preclude volatility, especially in market this small. I´m still very bullish on monero, just not short term.

xmr has been trading in the xmr-denominated markets on poloniex, and against btc on mintpal, but price has not moved significantly.

i don't think this attack will even interrupt the uptrend in any meaningful way.  it may even be a catapult, like SR bust was for BTC.



Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on September 04, 2014, 02:37:45 PM
Quote from: aminorex on September 04, 2014, 02:32:05 PM
xmr has been trading in the xmr-denominated markets on poloniex, and against btc on mintpal, but price has not moved significantly.

i don't think this attack will even interrupt the uptrend in any meaningful way.  it may even be a catapult, like SR bust was for BTC.

I did not think that my respect for the Monero core team could rise any more,

but last night certainly proved me wrong:


Thank you eizh, fluffypony, David, tacotime, NoodleDoodle, othe and smooth!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: darlidada on September 04, 2014, 02:53:58 PM
Quote from: rpietila on September 04, 2014, 02:37:45 PM
Quote from: aminorex on September 04, 2014, 02:32:05 PM
xmr has been trading in the xmr-denominated markets on poloniex, and against btc on mintpal, but price has not moved significantly.

i don't think this attack will even interrupt the uptrend in any meaningful way.  it may even be a catapult, like SR bust was for BTC.

I did not think that my respect for the Monero core team could rise any more,

but last night certainly proved me wrong:


Thank you eizh, fluffypony, David, tacotime, NoodleDoodle, othe and smooth!

+1. the fact that xmr devs fixed a bug that extended to every cryptonote coins is incredibly bullish. we should remember this day and celebrate it next year. until then, i'll make a donation within the next 2 days. thank you.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Jungian on September 04, 2014, 03:48:37 PM
Can someone give me a rundown on what happend with the bug? What effect did it have on the network?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: infofront on September 04, 2014, 03:56:43 PM
Quote from: Jungian on September 04, 2014, 03:48:37 PM
Can someone give me a rundown on what happend with the bug? What effect did it have on the network?

Someone exploited an overflow vulnerability and forked the network. It's fixed now, and there was no real damage done.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: iCEBREAKER on September 04, 2014, 04:12:26 PM
Quote from: Jungian on September 04, 2014, 03:48:37 PM
Can someone give me a rundown on what happend with the bug? What effect did it have on the network?

An attacker with extensive knowledge of the Cryptonote code and network spent four days using custom software to lay the subtle groundwork for an attack.

When executed, it combined the preliminary troll transactions into a troll block designed to bypass safeguards and overload the Merkle tree's capacity.

The network split into two forks, because nodes favored the longer but malignant chain.

The exploit was due to the limitations/inappropriate use of the C language, but quickly fixed.

As a result the XMR core team was able to demonstrate an incredible degree of competence, by immediately spotting the problem and rapidly diagnosing/fixing it.

Our friends at BBR, while not acutely affected, also helped in efforts to contain the vulnerability.  The CN community rallied behind the core devs, notified exchanges, and pledged support in the form of donations and buy walls.

Some sleep was lost, but a good time was had by all.  We now return you to your regularly scheduled moonshot.   8)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Jungian on September 04, 2014, 04:19:53 PM
Wow, looks like some incredible work was done here! Another attacker bites the dust!

Economically speaking, it looks like we bet on the right devs. I couldn't be happier right now.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on September 04, 2014, 04:31:16 PM
Quote from: darlidada on September 04, 2014, 02:53:58 PM
+1. the fact that xmr devs fixed a bug that extended to every cryptonote coins is incredibly bullish.

if you've tracked the code changes, and their propagation through the coins, you know it is not an isolated incident.  certainly most of the codebases have introduced fixes (and bugs) so there is no monopoly, but if you were to listen to the trolls you would think XMRs core team, and their staff of expert consultants, were the reincarnation of the three stooges.  that could not be more wrong.  what constantly surprises me is their incident and risk management skills. 

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on September 04, 2014, 04:51:29 PM
Quote from: aminorex on September 04, 2014, 04:31:16 PM
Quote from: darlidada on September 04, 2014, 02:53:58 PM
+1. the fact that xmr devs fixed a bug that extended to every cryptonote coins is incredibly bullish.

if you've tracked the code changes, and their propagation through the coins, you know it is not an isolated incident.  certainly most of the codebases have introduced fixes (and bugs) so there is no monopoly, but if you were to listen to the trolls you would think XMRs core team, and their staff of expert consultants, were the reincarnation of the three stooges.  that could not be more wrong.  what constantly surprises me is their incident and risk management skills. 

If I did not know and even have met some of them, the determination and skills, combined with the fact that they don't receive any salary (rather actually fund the development from their own pocket, despite being only medium holders), would surely make me suspect that it is a 3-letter-agency plan all along. A comparison to Satoshi is not hard to make.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: NewLiberty on September 04, 2014, 04:56:14 PM
Fortune is favoring the bold.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on September 04, 2014, 05:06:41 PM
Quote from: iCEBREAKER on September 04, 2014, 04:12:26 PM
Quote from: Jungian on September 04, 2014, 03:48:37 PM
Can someone give me a rundown on what happend with the bug? What effect did it have on the network?

An attacker with extensive knowledge of the Cryptonote code and network spent four days using custom software to lay the subtle groundwork for an attack.

When executed, it combined the preliminary troll transactions into a troll block designed to bypass safeguards and overload the Merkle tree's capacity.

The network split into two forks, because nodes favored the longer but malignant chain.

Has bitcoin ever undergone any sort of sustained/planned attack like this? This is certainly some dedication.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: iCEBREAKER on September 04, 2014, 05:38:16 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on September 04, 2014, 05:06:41 PM
Quote from: iCEBREAKER on September 04, 2014, 04:12:26 PM
Quote from: Jungian on September 04, 2014, 03:48:37 PM
Can someone give me a rundown on what happend with the bug? What effect did it have on the network?

An attacker with extensive knowledge of the Cryptonote code and network spent four days using custom software to lay the subtle groundwork for an attack.

When executed, it combined the preliminary troll transactions into a troll block designed to bypass safeguards and overload the Merkle tree's capacity.

The network split into two forks, because nodes favored the longer but malignant chain.

Has bitcoin ever undergone any sort of sustained/planned attack like this? This is certainly some dedication.

No.

Quote
Satoshi client has passed the test of being on-line for more than 3 years, without a single vulnerability being exploited in the wild.  https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses#Security_Vulnerabilities_and_bugs

Quote
Entire classes of bugs are missing. But it's just not an anonymous solution, and the devs will say as much.  -Dan Kaminsky

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on September 04, 2014, 07:05:21 PM
Quote from: rpietila on September 04, 2014, 04:51:29 PM
suspect that it is a 3-letter-agency plan all along.

Those are fighting words.

Quote
A comparison to Satoshi is not hard to make.

I object to that. Satoshi was brilliant and groundbreaking, at least in one instance (beyond than that we don't know). We're just dedicated and have a mix of skills that we combine effectively.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: explorer on September 05, 2014, 01:12:27 AM
Quote from: smooth on September 04, 2014, 07:05:21 PM
Quote from: rpietila on September 04, 2014, 04:51:29 PM
suspect that it is a 3-letter-agency plan all along.

Those are fighting words.

Quote
A comparison to Satoshi is not hard to make.

I object to that. Satoshi was brilliant and groundbreaking, at least in one instance (beyond than that we don't know). We're just  dedicated and have a mix of skills that we combine effectively.



The recipe for successful collaborative efforts starts with this.   8) 

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: pa on September 05, 2014, 03:06:18 AM
I wonder how Bitcoin would have fared in 2010 if Satoshi & Hal had gone rogue and started trying to sabotage it. Monero devs, I salute you!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: thefunkybits on September 10, 2014, 03:52:12 PM
Well hello there, old friend  ;D

https://i.imgur.com/M5pfwGA.png

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: ol92 on September 19, 2014, 07:11:35 PM
gmaxwell refute BCX allegation on xmr anonimity potential problem : price increase ...
This will be epic probably (both price war and discussion on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=786201.msg8892342#msg8892342

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on September 19, 2014, 08:18:53 PM
Here I post the link to an interesting 3-page thread I've been contributing to: What coin has the best distribution (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=777213.0).

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on September 19, 2014, 11:05:11 PM
Quote from: ol92 on September 19, 2014, 07:11:35 PM
gmaxwell refute BCX allegation on xmr anonimity potential problem : price increase ...
This will be epic probably (both price war and discussion on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=786201.msg8892342#msg8892342

Both seemed relatively insignificant, although neither is necessarily 100% over.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on October 01, 2014, 10:21:31 AM

My newest thoughts about monetary economics, plus exhortation to find a new initial coin distribution paradigm (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=777213.msg9039752#msg9039752).

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Spoetnik on October 07, 2014, 01:35:54 AM
You should have went all in on Jackpot coin and not XMR as you said in your first post ;)
JPC is going to the MOON !

here is some economics info you may find interesting..
Going all in in on one coin rather than spreading out your investments is what ???
sort of contradicts and violates what you said in your first post doesn't it ?

or am i off base here and you have other coins your invested in besides Monero and Bitcoin ?
If so what are they if you don't mind me asking ?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Come-In-Behind on October 07, 2014, 02:06:57 AM
Quote from: Spoetnik on October 07, 2014, 01:35:54 AM
You should have went all in on Jackpot coin and not XMR as you said in your first post ;)
JPC is going to the MOON !

here is some economics info you may find interesting..
Going all in in on one coin rather than spreading out your investments is what ???
sort of contradicts and violates what you said in your first post doesn't it ?

or am i off base here and you have other coins your invested in besides Monero and Bitcoin ?
If so what are they if you don't mind me asking ?

I find it best to invest in only a few coins, around 2-4. Anything more and it becomes too spread out and hectic for my tastes...Plus, the more money you pile into one coin, the higher the return you get if/when it takes off(also the higher risk). But yea, it's safer, in my view, to invest in a very small selection of alt coins rather than a large amount like I see some people doing(I also trade manually, no bots are used or anything, so this is just my opinion).

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Spoetnik on October 07, 2014, 02:42:08 AM
Quote from: Come-In-Behind on October 07, 2014, 02:06:57 AM
Quote from: Spoetnik on October 07, 2014, 01:35:54 AM
You should have went all in on Jackpot coin and not XMR as you said in your first post ;)
JPC is going to the MOON !

here is some economics info you may find interesting..
Going all in in on one coin rather than spreading out your investments is what ???
sort of contradicts and violates what you said in your first post doesn't it ?

or am i off base here and you have other coins your invested in besides Monero and Bitcoin ?
If so what are they if you don't mind me asking ?

I find it best to invest in only a few coins, around 2-4. Anything more and it becomes too spread out and hectic for my tastes...Plus, the more money you pile into one coin, the higher the return you get if/when it takes off(also the higher risk). But yea, it's safer, in my view, to invest in a very small selection of alt coins rather than a large amount like I see some people doing(I also trade manually, no bots are used or anything, so this is just my opinion).

agreed but did you read what he said in his first post ?
and how it contradicts the typical advice given to noobs around the scene ?
me i have never subscribed to that concept and i have told noobs that..
as in i tell them this is what i am suppose to tell you but honestly i don't follow it myself LOL
and ya 2 to 4 for me too i agree !

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on October 07, 2014, 02:51:04 AM
Quote from: Spoetnik on October 07, 2014, 01:35:54 AM
Going all in in on one coin rather than spreading out your investments is what ???
sort of contradicts and violates what you said in your first post doesn't it ?

I agree with you that diversification among a number of good assets is a good idea.

I disagree that you should buy a lot of crap just to spread your money around. 

Approximately 99.9% of altcoins are crap in my opinion. I own a few of them. Very few. Someone who looks at this differently than I do or has less time to study might well decide that only zero or one can be identified as not being crap.

I will diversify to others if I find any I view as having strong potential, but those are very few and far between.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on October 07, 2014, 08:04:01 AM

The strategy to buy every alt that (for practical reasons) exceeds a given threshold, would have been somewhat profitable during the recent Bitcoin downturn when BTC declined -34% and TOP-16 alts only -17%.

If you buy relative to the coins' marketcaps, this requires you to hedge 5% of the Bitcoin stash to other coins, hardly excessive.

The reason I haven't done it is that I don't want to invest in something I don't like, just because I "should" mathematically do it. (Well cash is the exception, I always keep some although don't like that it is just a receipt of someone else's debt slavery.)

It's too early to say much about the staying power of altcoins. In 2014, despite BTC ailing, not many TOP-10 coins have bitten the dust.

I'll continue in the line that if I invest, I do minimum 1% of my BTC stash, which also rules out very small coins, since my intention is not to become the top owner. The liquidity must allow for divesting the stash if need be without driving the price to the ground. In other words, any coin that does not have at least BTC100 bid support near market is uninteresting to me. 

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: iCEBREAKER on October 07, 2014, 08:19:55 AM
Quote from: rpietila on October 07, 2014, 08:04:01 AM
If you buy relative to the coins' marketcaps, this requires you to hedge 5% of the Bitcoin stash to other coins, hardly excessive.

The reason I haven't done it is that I don't want to invest in something I don't like, just because I "should" mathematically do it. (Well cash is the exception, I always keep some although don't like that it is just a receipt of someone else's debt slavery.)

It's too early to say much about the staying power of altcoins. In 2014, despite BTC ailing, not many TOP-10 coins have bitten the dust.

iCEBREAKER's Razor:  Fiat is the ultimate shitcoin alt scam.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: paulsonnumismatics on October 13, 2014, 12:15:05 PM
Quote from: rpietila on October 07, 2014, 08:04:01 AM

The strategy to buy every alt that (for practical reasons) exceeds a given threshold, would have been somewhat profitable during the recent Bitcoin downturn when BTC declined -34% and TOP-16 alts only -17%.

If you buy relative to the coins' marketcaps, this requires you to hedge 5% of the Bitcoin stash to other coins, hardly excessive.

The reason I haven't done it is that I don't want to invest in something I don't like, just because I "should" mathematically do it. (Well cash is the exception, I always keep some although don't like that it is just a receipt of someone else's debt slavery.)

It's too early to say much about the staying power of altcoins. In 2014, despite BTC ailing, not many TOP-10 coins have bitten the dust.

I'll continue in the line that if I invest, I do minimum 1% of my BTC stash, which also rules out very small coins, since my intention is not to become the top owner. The liquidity must allow for divesting the stash if need be without driving the price to the ground. In other words, any coin that does not have at least BTC100 bid support near market is uninteresting to me. 

100 BTC on every high volume traded alt can be a hell of an investment :-) Also, that implies that youre one of the Merry 10K+ BTC owners ;-)
How the coming of new coins can affect your strategy? Ethereum, Maidsafe, the SuperNet NXT thingy... Do you think that the adoption, ie, flow of fiat into crypto, will always be bigger than the arrival of new coins that siphon that influx?
Hope i made myself clear, english is not my mother language.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: superresistant on October 17, 2014, 10:03:23 AM
Quote from: iCEBREAKER on October 07, 2014, 08:19:55 AM
Quote from: rpietila on October 07, 2014, 08:04:01 AM
If you buy relative to the coins' marketcaps, this requires you to hedge 5% of the Bitcoin stash to other coins, hardly excessive.
The reason I haven't done it is that I don't want to invest in something I don't like, just because I "should" mathematically do it. (Well cash is the exception, I always keep some although don't like that it is just a receipt of someone else's debt slavery.)
It's too early to say much about the staying power of altcoins. In 2014, despite BTC ailing, not many TOP-10 coins have bitten the dust.
iCEBREAKER's Razor:  Fiat is the ultimate shitcoin alt scam.

Haha so true but we need a little bit to buy the croissants.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on October 18, 2014, 09:59:49 PM
Quote from: superresistant on October 17, 2014, 10:03:23 AM
Quote from: iCEBREAKER on October 07, 2014, 08:19:55 AM
Quote from: rpietila on October 07, 2014, 08:04:01 AM
If you buy relative to the coins' marketcaps, this requires you to hedge 5% of the Bitcoin stash to other coins, hardly excessive.
The reason I haven't done it is that I don't want to invest in something I don't like, just because I "should" mathematically do it. (Well cash is the exception, I always keep some although don't like that it is just a receipt of someone else's debt slavery.)
It's too early to say much about the staying power of altcoins. In 2014, despite BTC ailing, not many TOP-10 coins have bitten the dust.
iCEBREAKER's Razor:  Fiat is the ultimate shitcoin alt scam.

Haha so true but we need a little bit to buy the croissants.



when people stop tolerating slavery, it will end.  no croissant is world the human suffering caused by debt-based money.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: superresistant on October 21, 2014, 08:57:41 AM
Quote from: aminorex on October 18, 2014, 09:59:49 PM
when people stop tolerating slavery, it will end.  no croissant is worth the human suffering caused by debt-based money.

I totally agree with you but we are alone.

The vast majority of people want to be spoiled slaves.
They want to be told what to do, they are terrified by choices.
They vote for a government that make them dream with promises and offer them dept and illusion of security.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: iCEBREAKER on October 21, 2014, 06:22:03 PM
Quote from: aminorex on October 18, 2014, 09:59:49 PM
Quote from: superresistant on October 17, 2014, 10:03:23 AM
Quote from: iCEBREAKER on October 07, 2014, 08:19:55 AM
iCEBREAKER's Razor:  Fiat is the ultimate shitcoin alt scam.

Haha so true but we need a little bit to buy the croissants.


when people stop tolerating slavery, it will end.  no croissant is world the human suffering caused by debt-based money.

Quote from: superresistant on October 21, 2014, 08:57:41 AM
I totally agree with you but we are alone.

The vast majority of people want to be spoiled slaves.
They want to be told what to do, they are terrified by choices.
They vote for a government that make them dream with promises and offer them dept and illusion of security.

The problem is that croissant eating surrender monkeys are allowed to vote and even hold office, despite not paying taxes or being eligible for military service.

Bitcoin and Monero offer solutions to this problem, if we apply their technology effectively....   8)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: katlogic on October 21, 2014, 08:24:37 PM
Quote from: rpietila on October 07, 2014, 08:04:01 AM
I'll continue in the line that if I invest, I do minimum 1% of my BTC stash, which also rules out very small coins, since my intention is not to become the top owner. The liquidity must allow for divesting the stash if need be without driving the price to the ground. In other words, any coin that does not have at least BTC100 bid support near market is uninteresting to me. 

Small time XMR miner here. I understand that you're walking a tightrope, a bit like a central bank here - if you invest too much, people will cry bloody murder as it will carbon copy the ghastly GINI of Bitcoin. But if it's too little, XMR will meet the sad fate of BCN.

Ideally, I'd love to see XMR keep hovering around $1 until it sees enough adoption you lose the power to individually manipulate the price.

Anyhow, thank you for being honest about it (assuming my perception is correct).

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on October 22, 2014, 10:32:34 PM
There is a simple solution to bad Gini -- if you hold the dominant portion:  Distribute it.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on October 22, 2014, 11:49:05 PM
Quote from: aminorex on October 22, 2014, 10:32:34 PM
There is a simple solution to bad Gini -- if you hold the dominant portion:  Distribute it.

I am about to build a grand palace in Crypto Kingdom (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=819073.0). My estimate of the labor cost alone is 300 XMR. It will go to Labor pool, and becomes distributed to all the players in the game. Crypto Kingdom uses XMR as the ingame currency.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: katlogic on October 23, 2014, 03:04:45 AM
Quote from: aminorex on October 22, 2014, 10:32:34 PM
There is a simple solution to bad Gini -- if you hold the dominant portion:  Distribute it.

You think that major bagholders would give majority of their wealth away for free? That is very rare.

Can't see how would that work on massive scale to have any effect on GINI. Africa and Nepal remain poor no matter how Melissa Gates tries :)

If you mean market exchange, net worth is preserved, only assets backing it may change hands. Certainly no significant transfer of wealth.

Mining is different, however - the longer the period where average joe can mine (ie no industrialized mining), the better GINI should be in the end.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on October 23, 2014, 03:49:21 AM
Quote from: katlogic on October 23, 2014, 03:04:45 AM
Mining is different, however - the longer the period where average joe can mine (ie no industrialized mining), the better GINI should be in the end.

I'm fairly convinced that duration of mining matters for adoption, because with newly-minted coins being created on a continual basis and added to available supply, the market price of the coin is kept lower relative to adoption. Therefore the incentive to buy (including acquire in trade) is strong and persists. You don't need to convince someone who already has as much as he wants to part with some (at a higher price).

I'm not convinced that who specifically mines matters at all. If I mine myself that is not really any different then if I delegate that to someone better than I am at it and pay a small premium for that service.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: 1echo on October 23, 2014, 04:12:42 AM
shame mintpal stole so many XMR and hes dropping it

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: saddambitcoin on October 23, 2014, 04:21:13 AM
Quote from: 1echo on October 23, 2014, 04:12:42 AM
shame mintpal stole so many XMR and hes dropping it

i heard that mintpal didnt migrate XMR to v2 and they have found access to their old wallet.

is it true? i'll wait for statdude to confirm.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on October 23, 2014, 04:32:31 AM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on October 23, 2014, 04:21:13 AM
Quote from: 1echo on October 23, 2014, 04:12:42 AM
shame mintpal stole so many XMR and hes dropping it

i heard that mintpal didnt migrate XMR to v2 and they have found access to their old wallet.

is it true? i'll wait for statdude to confirm.

I wouldn't believe a word they say until the coins are actually returned the customers. I know for a fact they lied about trying to reach the Monero core team "for help with their wallet." They never tried to reach us.

I do hope everyone gets paid though.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: superresistant on October 24, 2014, 09:34:19 AM
Quote from: 1echo on October 23, 2014, 04:12:42 AM
shame mintpal stole so many XMR and hes dropping it

They are smart, they use multiple accounts to dump XMR day after day.
Last time sharexchance did the same, they've been spotted trying to dump all at once and funds where blocked by Busoni from Poloniex.
Also XMR is really anonymous so no chance of tracing back the funds.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on October 24, 2014, 10:38:36 AM
well it will be funny to see how they try to justify that actually do not have the xmr any more after this post:

https://twitter.com/MintPalExchange/status/524963448917344256 (https://twitter.com/MintPalExchange/status/524963448917344256)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on October 24, 2014, 05:21:47 PM
Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2014, 11:49:05 PM
Quote from: aminorex on October 22, 2014, 10:32:34 PM
There is a simple solution to bad Gini -- if you hold the dominant portion:  Distribute it.

I am about to build a grand palace in Crypto Kingdom (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=819073.0). My estimate of the labor cost alone is 300 XMR. It will go to Labor pool, and becomes distributed to all the players in the game. Crypto Kingdom uses XMR as the ingame currency.

Not to be rude, but doesn't this game distract from the fact that Monero has no DB and no real GUI? The current GUI's seem hodgepodge and Bitcoin is gearing up to destroy all the alt coins.

It seems we are trying to win a battle, as Bitcoin is about to win the war.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Este Nuno on October 24, 2014, 05:40:18 PM
Quote from: smooth on October 23, 2014, 04:32:31 AM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on October 23, 2014, 04:21:13 AM
Quote from: 1echo on October 23, 2014, 04:12:42 AM
shame mintpal stole so many XMR and hes dropping it

i heard that mintpal didnt migrate XMR to v2 and they have found access to their old wallet.

is it true? i'll wait for statdude to confirm.

I wouldn't believe a word they say until the coins are actually returned the customers. I know for a fact they lied about trying to reach the Monero core team "for help with their wallet." They never tried to reach us.

I do hope everyone gets paid though.



Who was 'they' at the time? Was that someone from moolah or was that someone from the original MP team? I'm trying to figure out if the original MP people are victims here or if they've contributed shadiness to the situation.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Este Nuno on October 24, 2014, 05:46:27 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on October 24, 2014, 05:21:47 PM
Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2014, 11:49:05 PM
Quote from: aminorex on October 22, 2014, 10:32:34 PM
There is a simple solution to bad Gini -- if you hold the dominant portion:  Distribute it.

I am about to build a grand palace in Crypto Kingdom (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=819073.0). My estimate of the labor cost alone is 300 XMR. It will go to Labor pool, and becomes distributed to all the players in the game. Crypto Kingdom uses XMR as the ingame currency.

Not to be rude, but doesn't this game distract from the fact that Monero has no DB and no real GUI? The current GUI's seem hodgepodge and Bitcoin is gearing up to destroy all the alt coins.

It seems we are trying to win a battle, as Bitcoin is about to win the war.

To be fair it's not like rpietila is the one who's going to be coding any databases or GUIs. I think mass adoption projects like this are good. If his game gets popular it could mean big things for XMR and crypto in general.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: drawingthesun on October 24, 2014, 05:52:44 PM
Quote from: Este Nuno on October 24, 2014, 05:46:27 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on October 24, 2014, 05:21:47 PM
Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2014, 11:49:05 PM
Quote from: aminorex on October 22, 2014, 10:32:34 PM
There is a simple solution to bad Gini -- if you hold the dominant portion:  Distribute it.

I am about to build a grand palace in Crypto Kingdom (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=819073.0). My estimate of the labor cost alone is 300 XMR. It will go to Labor pool, and becomes distributed to all the players in the game. Crypto Kingdom uses XMR as the ingame currency.

Not to be rude, but doesn't this game distract from the fact that Monero has no DB and no real GUI? The current GUI's seem hodgepodge and Bitcoin is gearing up to destroy all the alt coins.

It seems we are trying to win a battle, as Bitcoin is about to win the war.

To be fair it's not like rpietila is the one who's going to be coding any databases or GUIs. I think mass adoption projects like this are good. If his game gets popular it could mean big things for XMR and crypto in general.

Well we can't even afford Tacotime to work on the code full time, I guess the game just seems a little premature.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: BanditryAndLoot on October 24, 2014, 06:21:45 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on October 24, 2014, 05:52:44 PM
Well we can't even afford Tacotime to work on the code full time, I guess the game just seems a little premature.

I don't recall any conversations about that, were they in irc?

Either way, I don't really see the game as being a major focus of the core team's efforts in coding Risto's game at all. Actually it looks like they've been working heavily getting cmake implemented much more efficiently amongst other core issues.

Are you saying that, you think perhaps Risto should have funded the development of the protocol directly, rather than pursue one of his own personal interests as a game creator? I think he's already done so. I see this venture as going above and beyond doing anything of the sort.

Maybe he made the decision because any investment he put into his game venture could serve the purpose of raising funds in alternative way (spurring smaller buys for people that might otherwise not grab any xmr at all), providing entertainment, and give people a reason to use the currency as my recollection is that most of the core team is already volunteering what time they can offer. I'll admit I grabbed a few thousand darknote and huntercoins for this exact reason - to play with and familiarize myself with their creations, because they have utility. The difference between darknote and huntercoin, and Monero, is that this feature is outside of the focus of the core development team. I see that as unique.

I don't think whatever monetary investment, and especially time investment, that has gone into his efforts by himself would even be enough to put anyone on core protocol work full time, let alone secure a full-blown software developer full time if he pursued a direct route.

What makes you think the game is premature, in relation to Monero?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on October 24, 2014, 07:35:48 PM
Quote from: Este Nuno on October 24, 2014, 05:46:27 PM
To be fair it's not like rpietila is the one who's going to be coding any databases or GUIs. I think mass adoption projects like this are good. If his game gets popular it could mean big things for XMR and crypto in general.

Yes, get real dudes. Anything that pushes Monero further, pushes Monero further, and is so precious in this stage of the coin.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rdnkjdi on October 24, 2014, 07:44:43 PM
Quote from: rpietila on October 24, 2014, 07:35:48 PM
Quote from: Este Nuno on October 24, 2014, 05:46:27 PM
To be fair it's not like rpietila is the one who's going to be coding any databases or GUIs. I think mass adoption projects like this are good. If his game gets popular it could mean big things for XMR and crypto in general.

Yes, get real dudes. Anything that pushes Monero further, pushes Monero further, and is so precious in this stage of the coin.

Couldn't resist ...

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/0nIEGK8oeSZup_obdcxODwHGczFncplzzvXX0NtUhOn6RAzB0pPt85NYGPZJeDNOgCadm_3hNQPvqd2fvyyiRLNTt1EV4pMwDQ4yIXZYZ4qLXQdPGQx-xkrRjuRB=w841-h311-nc

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on October 24, 2014, 08:12:26 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on October 24, 2014, 05:21:47 PM
and Bitcoin is gearing up to destroy all the alt coins.

It seems we are trying to win a battle, as Bitcoin is about to win the war.

You are being hyperbolic. I have serious doubts about a side chain used for anonymity specifically and I don't see how side chains could possibly destroy, or even impair, alt coins that aren't feature-based at all such as Litecoin (which happens to be the largest alt by a wide margin; I exclude Ripple from comparison as its true market cap is rather nebulous).

The highest this coin has ever traded at was around 0.01. Surely you understand that what is going on here has always been a high-risk high-reward proposition right?


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on October 24, 2014, 10:27:21 PM
Quote from: BanditryAndLoot on October 24, 2014, 06:21:45 PM
Quote from: drawingthesun on October 24, 2014, 05:52:44 PM
Well we can't even afford Tacotime to work on the code full time, I guess the game just seems a little premature.

I don't recall any conversations about that, were they in irc?

I doubt it, and affording tacotime full time has never even been in play. Tacotime was already committed to another project since before this coin started, so full time has been off the table. He contributes part time as he can given the reality of other commitments as we all do.

We have hired some full time contractors for various development projects, so some money is there to get work done (in large part from the core team's own pockets but also from donations). We don't have unlimited resources to pour into it indefinitely on that basis, and donations have been somewhat modest (MEW did help a chunk) but that's not really unique to this project.

Agree the game has nothing to do with core development.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Wekkel on October 26, 2014, 09:06:32 PM
The lower and lower price sure makes it easier to step in with 1,000 XMR. It's about the number of coins in the end, not the entry price in a long term strategy. Privacy is a very valuable asset for crypto's and at some point, a lot of people will recognize this is essentially absent with Bitcoin. I consider dev activity key for the coming 12 months, not price. It will take some time for this one to fly.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on October 26, 2014, 09:15:48 PM
Quote from: Wekkel on October 26, 2014, 09:06:32 PM
The lower and lower price sure makes it easier to step in with 1,000 XMR. It's about the number of coins in the end, not the entry price in a long term strategy. Privacy is a very valuable asset for crypto's and at some point, a lot of people will recognize this is essentially absent with Bitcoin. I consider dev activity key for the coming 12 months, not price. It will take some time for this one to fly.

Exactly. If XMR flies, it's like you had invested in 1,000 BTC when it was sub-$1.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on October 30, 2014, 02:27:52 PM
technology choice game

I want to share a different approach from the more or less empirical driven approach by risto why monero could be the special one. It is more in the tradition of evolutionary economics and game theory. I think it is quite a helpful approach to make sense of these uncertain markets and should be easy to understand even without an education as economist - I taught it to m.a. students which did not have a background in economics. probably even a guidance regarding development can be derived by it.

we need a few assumptions:

1.) the success of cryptoprotocols especially currencies is driven by network effects

2.) there is a niche for a decentralized private ledger and this niche cannot be filled by bitcoin (otherwise we could stop here)

3.) there is a competitors on the market, existent, or coming in the future

4.) the utility of a network grows with the number of participants

http://s14.directupload.net/images/141030/temp/otrlu525.jpg (http://www.directupload.net/file/d/3791/otrlu525_jpg.htm)

5.) we have two competing technologies, in this case monero and zerocash and three different agents

6.) we assume that zerocash is even superior to monero (zerocash is a placeholder for all coming superior private decentralized ledger)

7.) we assume that two agents coordinated on the inferior technology (in this case monero) get the same utility as the one coordinated on the superior technology, whereas three agents coordinated on the inferior technology get as much as two on the superior technology

http://s14.directupload.net/images/141030/f6v3hjzc.jpg (http://www.directupload.net)

8.)
T1 = Zerocash > T2= Monero

9.) utility: numerical example 1T1=2, 2T1=3 3T1=4; 1T2=1 2T2=2 3T2=3

10.) 3T1 with the utility of 4,4,4 is obviously a nash-equilibrium, what is more important is that 3T2 with 3,3,3 is a nash-equilibrium as well, in this case the utility of the network outweights the superiority of the technology


What is important to understand is that we should make very sure that we get the second agent, if we reached this stadium and the rest is relatively sound the war is won. The guidance is obviously that we need a gui to include more people of the agent 2 case. At this point there is no serious competitor, but this will probably change in the future. We do not need to be feared as long as we manage to get agent 2.

This illustration also shows why bitcoiners do not need to be feared of any altcoins - the war over the transparent ledger is won.

The weaknesses of this approach are obviously its simplifications - how do we measure utility of privacy etc. pp, but as an illustration, I guess it is sound

 









 

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on November 02, 2014, 02:33:41 AM
Quote from: nakaone on October 30, 2014, 02:27:52 PM
The weaknesses of this approach are obviously its simplifications - how do we measure utility of privacy etc. pp, but as an illustration, I guess it is sound

And much appreciated.  Thank you.  It will serve as a stimulus for further work in this vein.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on November 05, 2014, 12:23:17 AM
I don't understand who is selling XMR and keep lowering the price this massive and long ongoing.
Just curious about your opinions.

Still have very big faith in the dev team, CN-tech, the coin distribution concept.

So I just dont understand who is selling.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: sandor111 on November 05, 2014, 12:27:14 AM
Quote from: dewdeded on November 05, 2014, 12:23:17 AM
I don't understand who is selling XMR and keep lowering the price this massive and long ongoing.
Just curious about your opinions.

Still have very big faith in the dev team, CN-tech, the coin distribution concept.

So I just dont understand who is selling.

Botnets? They are mining XMR at a fraction of the cost of regular miners.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on November 05, 2014, 12:52:31 AM
Quote from: sandor111 on November 05, 2014, 12:27:14 AM
Botnets? They are mining XMR at a fraction of the cost of regular miners.
kinda strange, hard to believe, botnet admins should/must see XMRs value (vs. random shitcoin) and history showed they normally act rational (like keeping hoarding % of BTC and selling 100% of LTC)

even if they wont believe in XMR, they should notice that they kill their own earninings/profits with this overselling

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on November 05, 2014, 01:56:31 AM
Quote from: sandor111 on November 05, 2014, 12:27:14 AM
Quote from: dewdeded on November 05, 2014, 12:23:17 AM
I don't understand who is selling XMR and keep lowering the price this massive and long ongoing.
Just curious about your opinions.

Still have very big faith in the dev team, CN-tech, the coin distribution concept.

So I just dont understand who is selling.

Botnets? They are mining XMR at a fraction of the cost of regular miners.

Why does the difficulty not continue to go up?


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Este Nuno on November 05, 2014, 08:55:31 AM
Quote from: smooth on November 05, 2014, 01:56:31 AM
Quote from: sandor111 on November 05, 2014, 12:27:14 AM
Quote from: dewdeded on November 05, 2014, 12:23:17 AM
I don't understand who is selling XMR and keep lowering the price this massive and long ongoing.
Just curious about your opinions.

Still have very big faith in the dev team, CN-tech, the coin distribution concept.

So I just dont understand who is selling.

Botnets? They are mining XMR at a fraction of the cost of regular miners.

Why does the difficulty not continue to go up?



Perhaps because regular miners are getting pushed out due to mining being unprofitable for them. Just a guess, I have no data either way other than seeing people complaining about mining costing more than their power bill in the main XMR thread.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on November 05, 2014, 09:50:56 AM
Quote from: Este Nuno on November 05, 2014, 08:55:31 AM
Perhaps because regular miners are getting pushed out due to mining being unprofitable for them. Just a guess, I have no data either way other than seeing people complaining about mining costing more than their power bill in the main XMR thread.
which is no problem for an believer in XMR, as with the low price he can buy instead of mine
no negative effect on development/economy

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: nakaone on November 05, 2014, 06:52:40 PM
Quote from: aminorex on November 02, 2014, 02:33:41 AM
Quote from: nakaone on October 30, 2014, 02:27:52 PM
The weaknesses of this approach are obviously its simplifications - how do we measure utility of privacy etc. pp, but as an illustration, I guess it is sound

And much appreciated.  Thank you.  It will serve as a stimulus for further work in this vein.


what is an interesting question is the quality of agent 1 or user 1 - I think some guys already tried that.

xmr is from what I have seen here the most supported altcoin by realtively early bitcoin investors.

I think it is safe to say that an agent being in crypto since 2010 or 2011 is worth more than a newbie who joined 2013 or 2014.

Maybe power law in this case is a good indicator.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on December 31, 2014, 06:32:40 AM
Monero Distribution and the Benefits of a Near Death Experience: Don't Fear the Reaper


All of the top coins have an extremely top heavy distribution. Perhaps 1.4% of bitcoin owners have over 70% of the coins (if Risto's distribution numbers are still accurate). Of course, this leaves a tiny amount of coins available at any given time to be used. This supports the relatively high market caps of BTC, LTC, and DOGE. However, if too much supply is held in few hands, liquidity and volume suffer, as is the case with Bytecoin. So there is a sweet spot when it comes to distribution. We can come up with a lot of theories about how to determine that sweet spot, but I think that the simplest way to do it is to assume that the distribution of the top 3 coins is the sweet spot, which is part of the reason why they are the top three coins. In these coins the top 1-3% likely own more than 70% of coins.

1. XMR lacks this sweet-spot distribution because of its fair launch and extended high-inflation phase

2. This sweet-spot distribution is the only reason that shitcoins such as Blackcoin and Ybcoin are able to compete with XMR's market cap.

If XMR were similarly to have 1.4% own 70% of moneroj to achieve this sweet spot, then perhaps 189 users need to own an average of ~20,000 XMR each (assuming 13,500 users). Of course this is a far cry from the current situation (even assuming there is still a top holder with 250,000+ moneroj). At current price levels, it is not feasible for the top 189 users to own an average of 20,000 XMR and these users will never collectively own 70% of moneroj at these price levels (~0.35 to 0.60+ USD each)

My conclusion is the a Near Death Experience is not only survivable, but is in fact the best case scenario for XMR. If XMR approaches a value of .05 USD each, it will become much more feasible for the top 1.4%, including the devs, to grab 100,000+ XMR each. Perhaps the top owner can begin to approach Satoshi-like holdings. Then, with 70% of coins in the hands of a dedicated business class, with developers owning significant stakes, and with an active, interested community of even just 1000 users, XMR would violently rise again from its lows. Dogecoin is up more than 100% from its near death at .00000025 lows and retains strong volume and an active community. It is far from dead. A near death experience will similarly not be the end of XMR.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: David Latapie on December 31, 2014, 07:45:07 AM
I don't know much what to think of your post. Cognitive dissonance, sound theory? I honestly don't know. I'd appreciate opinion from other people.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: bitcoin_bagholder on December 31, 2014, 08:08:58 AM
Quote from: David Latapie on December 31, 2014, 07:45:07 AM
I don't know much what to think of your post. Cognitive dissonance, sound theory? I honestly don't know. I'd appreciate opinion from other people.

It isn't possible to experience a near-death experience without guaranteeing that death won't be the end result.

"Crazy street preacher" comes to mind for advocating a near-death experience.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on December 31, 2014, 09:09:07 AM
Quote from: bitcoin_bagholder on December 31, 2014, 08:08:58 AM
It isn't possible to experience a near-death experience without guaranteeing that death won't be the end result.


There are many examples in which organisms, sub-organisms, and super-organisms are brought to near-death levels in order to cure or build them up. When the body is invaded by bacterial invaders, what does it do? It increases your body temperature to dangerously high levels. Levels so high that it kills the invaders and comes just short of killing the body itself. This is a fever. Think about anesthesia. We purposefully bring the body dangerously close to death to excise a cancer or perform other life-saving surgery. Think about physical training. We often push our bodies to their absolute limits in order to grow. Natural forest fires. The culling of the herd. The point of the drop would be to move coins into the (few) hands of those who are in it long-term.  To move XMR towards the distribution that has shown to be dominant (BTC's top heavy distribution).

To be clear, I don't believe the market will allow this NDE to occur in the near-term. But we should be ready to seize the opportunity if and when it presents itself without hesitation. Thinking clearly about our goals.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: TrueCryptonaire on December 31, 2014, 09:40:44 AM
I do not know if NDE for a coin is something we should be looking forward to.
In the case of bitcoin it was possible in early days as there was very little to no competition.
Currently there are hundreds of cryptocoins and the market is very competive.

I see it as a strength to have wealthy investors who are willing to buy significiant stashes of coin out of market.
They can sell their holdings when the price starts rising in small quantitives.
Remember, the more there are coins in deep frozen accounts, the less there is supply and thus the more likely the price will rise if there is increase in demand in Monero.
For a coin's marketcap point of view the strong hands holding large portion is essential, and on the contrary, if the coin is too diversified it means stability in price and the price will not rise more likely as many already owns coins and do not feel any urgency to increase their positions.
Ideally there need to be some sort of stability of coin's diversification and concentration. Too much concentration is bad for the coin's price and too much diversification is also bad for the coin's diversification.

About NDE: the advantage is that the big whales are able to acquire significiant amounts of coins from hoovering from hands to hands in exchange. The risk is however that the community's interest will drop as the coin price is sinking.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on December 31, 2014, 11:15:09 AM
Nice thinking, jehst and all! :)

If you're thinking pricewise, yes, the plunge to sub-0.001 would qualify. Adoptionwise, economywise, developmentwise, even feelingwise, I don't think we have experinced anything close to death.

The recent price moves are interesting. We almost visited my dip bottom region of 0.0013. But since we are here, and it does not obviously look like bottoming, I'd say that we continue making new lows until 0.0011-0.0012 like David's said in the IRC. The big buying has completely stopped now because of the viable scenarios of:
A) making a double bottom at 0.0009
B) making a new low.

Of course it makes no sense too buy high (60% higher, currently) unless you think the market is just about to turn back up. And then you fight against everyone who is "too late in selling".

I don't personally believe it will make a double bottom even, the low is somewhere higher. Follow the VWAPs, as long as they are declining, the bear-trap downtrend is in force.

Building a community buy wall at 0.001 might be an option, and indeed I will start with 3000 XMR right away :)

Crossing 0.002 will be the exercise not this or the next week, I'm afraid  :-[

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on December 31, 2014, 02:47:10 PM
Quote from: rpietila on December 31, 2014, 11:15:09 AM
A) making a double bottom at 0.0009
B) making a new low.

P(A => B) >> 0.5

double bottoms which actually hold just don't occur much in real life.  double bottoms mean more downside, overwhelmingly.  Either it holds a higher low, or it breaks down, with high probability.

Responsive to jehst:

I think taking the distribution of the top 3 as an indicator of optimal distribution is hasty induction.  The idiosyncracy factor is very high, so variance is massive, and a proper estimation of the central tendency of probability mass would require a lot of samples.  In other words, while it might be your best estimator of optimal distribution, i.e. the best among those considered by you, jehst, it is a very poor estimator, and the confidence interval will be incredibly large, and in such a high dimensional space as to encompass worlds undreamed of.

That certainly doesn't mean you're not right.  It just means I don't see how to have any meaningful confidence in the hypothesis without a forward sampling strategy, and I don't see a practicable forward sampling strategy.

I think the case that an NDE would leave coins in strong hands is clearly very strong, basically a given.  I enthusiastically agree with that part of the hypothesis.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on December 31, 2014, 02:53:31 PM
Quote from: smooth on November 05, 2014, 01:56:31 AM
Why does the difficulty not continue to go up?

If another coin is given a higher forward-discounted value per unit of hashing power by the miners, then they will, rationally, redirect their hashing power.

It is unreasonable to think that miners would be particularly good at the forward discounting process, however, as this is a different specialized skill.  Still, a "wisdom of crowds" argument suggests they will at least be better in aggregate than is a typical (or median) individual.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on December 31, 2014, 07:35:06 PM
One thing alot of people forget or didn't notice. Monero is also superior vs. other coins, if u judge and rate soft factors, that make e.g. open source projects in general and cryptocurrency projects particular successful/sustainable/efficient/... or proven to be important and influential in management of successful (corporate) businesses.

From my expierence this even more valuable and a long-term strength, then (the much talked about) very good quantifiable, fundamental characteristics of Monero (hard factors).
(Remember, later arising problems, from then non ideal hard factors, can always be mitaged and dealt with as best possible with Moneros community, that is above average skilled and has great dev- and man-power.)

In other words
The skill-level and quality of Moneros core team and whole community is so very good and now provenly productive, that it's sure assumption, besides whatever happens or changes now & in future, they will build a very good, solid, useful product/coin.
(as sure as project predictions can maximal be)

This is an important fact that alot of people forget.Mostly because they didnt do intensive research on Monero, didn't came in contact with Monero community, just rate coins via their own classic favorite (bad) metrics or are fully uninformed about success factors in (project) managment, organization and operation.
That's why they often don't understand, why Monero is judged so understanding good and its community members are so confident and enthusiastic.

This is even positive, this keeps alot of unintelligent, uninformed people away. Because they prefer the latest, most shiniest and trendiest scam-coin/alt-coin, in their hope of finding their rocket to the moon.
Mainstream attention and over-hype could and would more harm then benefit Monero today.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on December 31, 2014, 08:03:11 PM
Quote from: aminorex on December 31, 2014, 02:53:31 PM
Quote from: smooth on November 05, 2014, 01:56:31 AM
Why does the difficulty not continue to go up?

If another coin is given a higher forward-discounted value per unit of hashing power by the miners, then they will, rationally, redirect their hashing power.

There are only a few other coins that are viable to mine on CPU and therefore botnets. Just the other non-BBR cryptonotes (all small) and BSTY (current market cap 5K USD) I think. I don't think botnets are shifting to other coins.

If botnets could really mine at no cost, they would increase their mining of XMR and the difficulty would continue to go up.

In reality I think botnets' actual costs are right around the current XMR price.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on December 31, 2014, 10:37:07 PM
Quote from: smooth on December 31, 2014, 08:03:11 PM
In reality I think botnets' actual costs are right around the current XMR price.

If so, then driving up the cost of operating botnets might behoove the hodlers.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: KennyTheMartian on January 01, 2015, 06:48:20 AM
Another problem with XMR is the lack of buy volume minus (amount mined per day + Monero sellers) (with exception to the $100K+ volume 3 days ago). There needs to be an ample amount of demand relative to supply (produced by miners and sellers) for the price to rise steadily instead of spikes that only last a few days. It basically comes down to getting more investors, ease of use (simple wallet is great but it just isn't simple enough for the average person - no pun intended  ;D). I would like to see this coin rise and I wouldn't sell my Monero if the price went down even more. I understand the near death experience, but the only reason it would even get that low is due to lack of interest in the coin and if glitches were found that would jeopardize the whole coin itself (which I doubt would happen). Also did we take into account that most of the XMR on Mintpal has not been returned to their owners yet? With that incident, it seems like it created an artificial hold of a decent amount of Monero, which I am surprised the price did not rise during this occasion...maybe because the volume went down a bit since a whole exchange went down. I know a friend who has a decent amount on that site and has not received his coins yet. Just my 2 satoshis. ;)

-KennyTheMartian

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on January 01, 2015, 09:01:35 AM
From my point of view:

There seem to be, some well known to be wealthy posters and some boards accounts that always suggested they are rich and own super many Bitcoins, that claim they support Monero fully and saying they (seriously) want the project to succeed.
But they dont give the buying support, that is expected after such statements.
Even in very crucial market situations, where are little could help the coin/price alot.

This make me wonder why? Consindering
-  the history (not so long ago), and remember what big amounts of support well known altcoins (e.g. LTC, Doge, Quark) and really bad ones got.
- Are just the sheer number of people claiming to support Monero.
- and XMRs low price (where the needed stakes to support where alot of cheaper vs. coins who got support)



Question remains, if Monero is special in not receiving buying support or are "the old days" of making supports buys for the altcoins you like are over.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on January 01, 2015, 09:34:33 AM
Quote from: dewdeded on January 01, 2015, 09:01:35 AM

Question remains, if Monero is special in not receiving buying support or are "the old days" of making supports buys for the altcoins you like are over.

People are making support buys, but you have to understand the sheer number of XMR being created. There's something like 125,000+ XMR made per week. Even when a bunch of us acquire 10,000+ XMR within the space of one week, it doesn't stem the tide. MEW has already rightly decided not to change the inflation, so we have to be patient and wait for a) the next influx of new crypto users (if there's going to be a next influx) and b) the emission rate to eventually go down

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on January 01, 2015, 09:44:30 AM
Quote from: jehst on January 01, 2015, 09:34:33 AM
People are making support buys, but you have to understand the sheer number of XMR being created. There's something like 125,000+ XMR made per week. Even when a bunch of us acquire 10,000+ XMR within the space of one week, it doesn't stem the tide.

This is it.

I've said it before, every new single new coin needs to find a home. If its not a buyer, its a miner who is paying to mine and not selling to recoup costs (therefore, a buyer).

If people are buying a few hundred coins per week, and I love people like that who believe in the project and support it, then we need 400 of them to maintain the balance. Of course, there are some bigger buyers, and there are a good number of these smaller buyers. And indeed the coins are finding a home. But what happens is over time at least a few of those people (in both groups) get to the point where they feel like they have enough, and then the price needs to fall to motivate those still buying to buy a few more per week for the same cost.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: TrueCryptonaire on January 01, 2015, 11:59:55 AM
Quote from: dewdeded on January 01, 2015, 09:01:35 AM
From my point of view:

There seem to be, some well known to be wealthy posters and some boards accounts that always suggested they are rich and own super many Bitcoins, that claim they support Monero fully and saying they (seriously) want the project to succeed.
But they dont give the buying support, that is expected after such statements.
Even in very crucial market situations, where are little could help the coin/price alot.

This make me wonder why? Consindering
-  the history (not so long ago), and remember what big amounts of support well known altcoins (e.g. LTC, Doge, Quark) and really bad ones got.
- Are just the sheer number of people claiming to support Monero.
- and XMRs low price (where the needed stakes to support where alot of cheaper vs. coins who got support)



Question remains, if Monero is special in not receiving buying support or are "the old days" of making supports buys for the altcoins you like are over.


It is not smart to support it much now since the emission is still high.
When emission is much lower, then the support will maximize the impact and the price will skyrocket even higher (more btc are available for driving the price to new heights thanks to not to wasting the bitcoins now).


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Este Nuno on January 01, 2015, 01:30:06 PM
Quote from: dewdeded on January 01, 2015, 09:01:35 AM
From my point of view:

There seem to be, some well known to be wealthy posters and some boards accounts that always suggested they are rich and own super many Bitcoins, that claim they support Monero fully and saying they (seriously) want the project to succeed.
But they dont give the buying support, that is expected after such statements.
Even in very crucial market situations, where are little could help the coin/price alot.

This make me wonder why? Consindering
-  the history (not so long ago), and remember what big amounts of support well known altcoins (e.g. LTC, Doge, Quark) and really bad ones got.
- Are just the sheer number of people claiming to support Monero.
- and XMRs low price (where the needed stakes to support where alot of cheaper vs. coins who got support)



Question remains, if Monero is special in not receiving buying support or are "the old days" of making supports buys for the altcoins you like are over.

Oh they're definitely buying. Monero has some of the best buy support I've ever seen in an alt. It's just that there's an insane amount of XMR being mined everyday and even for a handful of wealthy supporters it's a lot to buy.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: darlidada on January 01, 2015, 02:40:11 PM
What would qualify as low emission ? 15K ? 10k ? 5k ?

Or shall we calculate in USD ? 18K * 1.3 mbtc * 313 = 7324$ per day.

Is that still too much?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: TrueCryptonaire on January 01, 2015, 03:02:13 PM
Quote from: darlidada on January 01, 2015, 02:40:11 PM
What would qualify as low emission ? 15K ? 10k ? 5k ?

Or shall we calculate in USD ? 18K * 1.3 mbtc * 313 = 7324$ per day.

Is that still too much?


A large portion of Monero community consists of people who are not a buyer in bitcoins anymore. Therefore for them the price of bitcoin is irrelevant when it comes to Monero's daily emission.

From their point of view the relationship between btc and xmr is something that matters. For fiat-denominated hands the relationship between btc and usd is also a factor.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on January 01, 2015, 03:10:38 PM
Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on January 01, 2015, 11:59:55 AM
It is not smart to support it much now since the emission is still high.
When emission is much lower, then the support will maximize the impact and the price will skyrocket even higher (more btc are available for driving the price to new heights thanks to not to wasting the bitcoins now).

+1.

This is a side-effect of deciding to keep the emission high. The reason for the proposed lowered emission, was to spare it for the future time, when we hope that XMR would enjoy mass popularity. A high emission then, instead of now, would serve to add "fairness" and cap the rallies, ie. more stability and better network strength.

This did not weigh as much as the continuity of the social contract. But the side effect is that nobody has a reason to pump XMR now. Game-theoretically the large bagholders such as me are better off when the price is low, so that we can add to our already large stashes and if it would hit big in the 1-2 years, we can act as the dampeners of irrational exuberance by selling to the rallies, instead of the miners. If it does not hit big, well then we lose all, but how can you think anything can have a chance for a 1000-bagger without having a much larger chance of going bust?

Nobody knows the future really. These are just different paths the coin would take, and the rally that followed the emission vote was a sign of confidence. The fact that XMR price could drop to even lower levels now, in itself, does not spell the end of the coin. It is only a rational decision of the current supporters, while waiting for any of the several breaktroughs that each could quickly put the price to a much higher new level.

Patience is a virtue, and if you play a game, knowing the rules is quite important also  :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on January 01, 2015, 05:43:51 PM
rpietila: Thank you for your great postings and work. You are really outstanding. IHMO, you should really receive some gratitudes as recognition.

As I dont know you personally and you are much richer than me. I can only offer this post today. Thanks a million.

But I can promise you, to buy you some beers and pizza at one the upcoming Monero meetups in the future (we both visit).

Everybody should use rpietila as a role model and be aiming to reach the same level of posting quality.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on January 01, 2015, 10:34:04 PM
Keeping it super-simple:

If .001 is roughly the cut-off for botnet mining, we might loosely infer that in 12 months the constant-demand clearing price will be ~.002.
A risk-free rate in a ZIRP environment is essentially negligible relative to our risk scales in crypto, so we can loosely call it 2%.
Present value of 1/1/2016 XMR ceteris paribus should be .00196, but it is priced about .00136, so we conclude that the market is discounting 1 year risk around 30%.
That is, the market value risk of XMR failing permanently to achieve a botnet-minable price level is about 30%.

Market seems a bit unduly pessimistic to me.





Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on January 01, 2015, 10:38:45 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 01, 2015, 10:34:04 PM
Keeping it super-simple:

If .001 is roughly the cut-off for botnet mining, we might loosely infer that in 12 months the constant-demand clearing price will be ~.002.
A risk-free rate in a ZIRP environment is essentially negligible relative to our risk scales in crypto, so we can loosely call it 2%.
Present value of 1/1/2016 XMR ceteris paribus should be .00196, but it is priced about .00136, so we conclude that the market is discounting 1 year risk around 30%.
That is, the market value risk of XMR failing permanently to achieve a botnet-minable price level is about 30%.

Market seems a bit unduly pessimistic to me.

I may be misunderstanding but I guess you are looking at the emissions decline? Why stop at one year? The halving interval is about 18 months. Let's go out 3 intervals or 48 months. At that point assuming constant mining costs, the price should be 8x. At 2%/year risk-free discount, so four years of discouting....well you get the point.

Something is wrong with this model.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: ArticMine on January 01, 2015, 10:46:25 PM
Quote from: smooth on January 01, 2015, 10:38:45 PM
...

I may be misunderstanding but I guess you are looking at the emissions decline? Why stop at one year? The halving interval is about 18 months. Let's go out 3 intervals or 48 months. At that point assuming constant mining costs, the price should be 8x. At 2%/year risk-free discount, so four years of discouting....well you get the point.

Something is wrong with this model.



Yes this model has a serious problem. It does not take into consideration demand.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on January 01, 2015, 11:18:19 PM
Quote from: ArticMine on January 01, 2015, 10:46:25 PM
Yes this model has a serious problem. It does not take into consideration demand.
Exactly.  I assume demand is negligible at present.  We are running on zero-point energy.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Febo on January 01, 2015, 11:37:31 PM
Quote from: KennyTheMartian on January 01, 2015, 06:48:20 AM
Also did we take into account that most of the XMR on Mintpal has not been returned to their owners yet? With that incident, it seems like it created an artificial hold of a decent amount of Monero, which I am surprised the price did not rise during this occasion...maybe because the volume went down a bit since a whole exchange went down. I know a friend who has a decent amount on that site and has not received his coins yet. Just my 2 satoshis. ;)


On Mintpal was traded like 5% of Moneros, main exchanges always was Poloniex and HitBtc.
The day when all happen on Mintpal, there was huge XMR sells on Poloniex. What is sort of opposite as you predicted.
I am sorry to tell your friend that his Minpal XMR was probably sold by Mintpal exchange owners on Poloniex and with that money they now run parties in London.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on January 02, 2015, 01:08:54 AM
I dont think Botnet mining will stay a big danger, in the long term.

Only the very worst botmasters, really choose to install crypto currency miners on their victim machines.
There are several other sources of income, like DDoS attacks, theft of confidential information, spam, phishing, SEO spam, click fraud and distribution of adware and malicious programs that are paying better in total and have better risk/reward-ratio mining.

Have a short look at:
http://old.securelist.com/en/analysis/204792068/The_economics_of_Botnets?print_mode=1
http://krebsonsecurity.com/2012/10/the-scrap-value-of-a-hacked-pc-revisited/
https://www.iseclab.org/papers/cutwail-LEET11.pdf
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1309.0522v1.pdf


Besides making way more money with other streams of generated income (with less work).
What are other reasons why is mining a bad choice to monetize your botnet?

- the big, permanent full CPU usage even noobs will notice (and raise infection concerns or lead to OS reinstall, buying new PC, bad because new install is not infected)

- the introduced new CPU usage from mining could harm other services or tools you run on the victims (that are not usable with new permanent usage load, like webcam spying, RDP usage on victim, ...)

- cooling problems

- it often slows the victims computer to strongly to be able to do general computer work

- antivirus software is actively searching for findings (files, traffic or process activites) are related to mining (adds big unessacry AV detection risk)

- risk of victims provider or mining pool admin noticing the botnet mining and informing the victim

- u cant run out-of-the-box mining software, because you need encrypt the well known binaries (obfuscate it so much) so you dont get dectected by AV software (i think with most working crypters that make your suspious binaries undetected by AV you lose at least factor 4 in performance vs. unencrypted standard mining software)

- botmasters want to automatization as much so possible, a mining operation on the big botnet is to much work (selling the coins, switching pools, avoiding bans by pools, advoiding frozen exchange  accounts, finding correct time to sell the CC, updating mining software encryption, optimizing whats possible for you, choosing the right hype coin, which change often, ...)

- bad footprint on the mining network: because your clients arent using specific hardware options regular miners would turn on for there mining client (because you have to roll out a general setup that works everywhere)

- bad footprint on the mining network: you dont have the same hardware power as the general legitime CPU miners in average per machine,
the majority of botnet-member have old, slow hardware vs. the global average of deployed CPU - because the majority of botnet-members are old computers with old hardware (win 2000, win xp, vista) and in a typical botnet the majority of install are in poor underdeveloped countries (china, india, brasil, poor regions of turkey, ....) -> no money -> no fast pc
(another factor why alot installs are in poor countries because people use pirated windows the cant update -> security holes stay open forever)

- crypting is expensive; adding a miner to your current intalled malware will encrease monthly crypting costs (can be big jump, if u for example are currently reencrypt your malware every 7 days to stay undected and now with an added cryptocurrency miner you need now to encrypt daily, -> 7x your current crypting-costs)

- costs of changing your crypting-setup (establishing are working configuration & testing),
in most cases with more re-encrypts you need to invest in more botnet-infostructure, more C&C-servers to handle the increased work load (doing more encryption, serving it) and new proxy-server to roll out the new crypts (because increased traffics, avoid IDS dections by to often using the same proxies, which were enough, when there were old longer crypting-setup with with less routinly connections) needed with the new demands

- maybe your subscribed favourite crypting-service or software solutions doesnt even offer the possibility of your new encryption demand (alot have unchangable rules like: "re-encrypt only ever 72 h" or stuff like "only 4 re-encrypts per month")

- added of work managing thousands of different mining pools accounts or setting & running your own pool

- there are some AV-industry & IT-Security-people that actively fight mining botnet, because they want to support CryptoCurrency in general or a specific coin they support) a significant increased risk losing your whole botnet, vs. the small added benefits of adding mining software

- over 90% of botnet-members are multi-infected with typically being member from average 3 botnets and bad unpatched PCs that are members 7 or more botnets
---> mining cant get popular as income stream for botnets, because the victim has one CPU but alot of infections  :)



I think you get idea why long running mining operation in big botnets are very unlikely.

--> there always will be kids that are new to boting scene, that fool around and may run mining on their new SMALL botnet for 4 weeks or maybe 3 months before removing mining from there setup or giving up botting for various reasons (botnet get sold to serious operator or becomes inactive/be turned off)

--> no serious botnet-operation (the ones running the huge ones) will pick up mining because its endangeres their whole botnet, often being an $$$$$$$$$$-business they depent on and have certain responsabilites to third cybercrime partys they do business with

The result
In an scenario with Monero mainstream adoption they legitime miners will strongly outnumber the number botnet miners in the network.
Because the number of botnet miners is strongly limited by the fact that only small, new botnets with newb botmasters (kids) will mining clients on their victims computers for a small very limited amount of time.
(Also see, not all botnet miners will mine Monero, AFAIK the most profitable CPU-mineable coins often changes and is on alot of days not Monero)

Big text. I hope I did add some useful information to thread.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on January 02, 2015, 03:28:18 AM
Quote from: smooth on January 01, 2015, 10:38:45 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 01, 2015, 10:34:04 PM
Keeping it super-simple:

If .001 is roughly the cut-off for botnet mining, we might loosely infer that in 12 months the constant-demand clearing price will be ~.002.
A risk-free rate in a ZIRP environment is essentially negligible relative to our risk scales in crypto, so we can loosely call it 2%.
Present value of 1/1/2016 XMR ceteris paribus should be .00196, but it is priced about .00136, so we conclude that the market is discounting 1 year risk around 30%.
That is, the market value risk of XMR failing permanently to achieve a botnet-minable price level is about 30%.

Market seems a bit unduly pessimistic to me.

I may be misunderstanding but I guess you are looking at the emissions decline? Why stop at one year? The halving interval is about 18 months. Let's go out 3 intervals or 48 months. At that point assuming constant mining costs, the price should be 8x. At 2%/year risk-free discount, so four years of discouting....well you get the point.

Something is wrong with this model.


To be fair, he didn't say that his model was valid over the long-term. The assumption that demand will remain about the same as today is reasonable only in the short term. There needs to be much, much more of a discount if we go out 4 years to account for the possibility that demand 4 years from now is 0.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: ArticMine on January 02, 2015, 05:08:36 AM
Quote from: jehst on January 02, 2015, 03:28:18 AM
Quote from: smooth on January 01, 2015, 10:38:45 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 01, 2015, 10:34:04 PM
Keeping it super-simple:

If .001 is roughly the cut-off for botnet mining, we might loosely infer that in 12 months the constant-demand clearing price will be ~.002.
A risk-free rate in a ZIRP environment is essentially negligible relative to our risk scales in crypto, so we can loosely call it 2%.
Present value of 1/1/2016 XMR ceteris paribus should be .00196, but it is priced about .00136, so we conclude that the market is discounting 1 year risk around 30%.
That is, the market value risk of XMR failing permanently to achieve a botnet-minable price level is about 30%.

Market seems a bit unduly pessimistic to me.

I may be misunderstanding but I guess you are looking at the emissions decline? Why stop at one year? The halving interval is about 18 months. Let's go out 3 intervals or 48 months. At that point assuming constant mining costs, the price should be 8x. At 2%/year risk-free discount, so four years of discouting....well you get the point.

Something is wrong with this model.


To be fair, he didn't say that his model was valid over the long-term. The assumption that demand will remain about the same as today is reasonable only in the short term. There needs to be much, much more of a discount if we go out 4 years to account for the possibility that demand 4 years from now is 0.

The assumption that demand for a crypto currency will be constant for any significant period of time has been proven very wrong by the markets since the creation of Bitcoin.
Demand for a crypto currency comes from two primary sources:
1) Demand for a crypto currency for actual use in commerce.
2) Demand for a crypto currency by investors and speculators because they expect 1 above (directly or indirectly) to occur at some point in the future.
2 is the dominant source of demand at this point now for all crypto currencies including Bitcoin, and the market perception of this future value varies widely as is evident by the fluctuations in price. In the case of Monero the market perception of this future value varies even more widely than for Bitcoin.

Given that there is actually minimal commerce currently going on with Monero it is fair to say that the current market perception of the future value must be significantly higher than 0 to support the current prices.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: urubu on January 02, 2015, 05:22:47 AM
 Would it be possible to analyze the inputs to claymores wallet and estimate the percentage of mining done by GPU clients over time?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: ArticMine on January 02, 2015, 05:26:32 AM
Quote from: urubu on January 02, 2015, 05:22:47 AM
Would it be possible to analyze the inputs to claymores wallet and estimate the percentage of mining done by GPU clients over time?

No. That is by design.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on January 02, 2015, 05:32:45 AM
Quote from: ArticMine on January 02, 2015, 05:08:36 AM
The assumption that demand for a crypto currency will be constant for any significant period of time has been proven very wrong by the markets since the creation of Bitcoin.
Demand for a crypto currency comes from two primary sources:
1) Demand for a crypto currency for actual use in commerce.
2) Demand for a crypto currency by investors and speculators because they expect 1 above (directly or indirectly) to occur at some point in the future.
2 is the dominant source of demand at this point now for all crypto currencies including Bitcoin, and the market perception of this future value varies widely as is evident by the fluctuations in price. In the case of Monero the market perception of this future value varies even more widely than for Bitcoin.

Given that there is actually minimal commerce currently going on with Monero it is fair to say that the current market perception of the future value must be significantly higher than 0 to support the current prices.

What he said

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on January 02, 2015, 07:13:53 AM
Quote from: ArticMine on January 02, 2015, 05:08:36 AM
Quote from: jehst on January 02, 2015, 03:28:18 AM
Quote from: smooth on January 01, 2015, 10:38:45 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 01, 2015, 10:34:04 PM
Keeping it super-simple:

If .001 is roughly the cut-off for botnet mining, we might loosely infer that in 12 months the constant-demand clearing price will be ~.002.
A risk-free rate in a ZIRP environment is essentially negligible relative to our risk scales in crypto, so we can loosely call it 2%.
Present value of 1/1/2016 XMR ceteris paribus should be .00196, but it is priced about .00136, so we conclude that the market is discounting 1 year risk around 30%.
That is, the market value risk of XMR failing permanently to achieve a botnet-minable price level is about 30%.

Market seems a bit unduly pessimistic to me.

I may be misunderstanding but I guess you are looking at the emissions decline? Why stop at one year? The halving interval is about 18 months. Let's go out 3 intervals or 48 months. At that point assuming constant mining costs, the price should be 8x. At 2%/year risk-free discount, so four years of discouting....well you get the point.

Something is wrong with this model.


To be fair, he didn't say that his model was valid over the long-term. The assumption that demand will remain about the same as today is reasonable only in the short term. There needs to be much, much more of a discount if we go out 4 years to account for the possibility that demand 4 years from now is 0.

The assumption that demand for a crypto currency will be constant for any significant period of time has been proven very wrong by the markets since the creation of Bitcoin.
Demand for a crypto currency comes from two primary sources:
1) Demand for a crypto currency for actual use in commerce.
2) Demand for a crypto currency by investors and speculators because they expect 1 above (directly or indirectly) to occur at some point in the future.
2 is the dominant source of demand at this point now for all crypto currencies including Bitcoin, and the market perception of this future value varies widely as is evident by the fluctuations in price. In the case of Monero the market perception of this future value varies even more widely than for Bitcoin.

Given that there is actually minimal commerce currently going on with Monero it is fair to say that the current market perception of the future value must be significantly higher than 0 to support the current prices.

In the end, I agree that 12 months is too long to assume demand being constant. It's reasonable to think that the demand next week will be similar to the demand today, but Anything past a month gets into very shaky territory. You cannot calculate demand when there are basically no fundamentals.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: cAPSLOCK on January 02, 2015, 04:41:44 PM
Quote from: ArticMine on January 02, 2015, 05:26:32 AM
Quote from: urubu on January 02, 2015, 05:22:47 AM
Would it be possible to analyze the inputs to claymores wallet and estimate the percentage of mining done by GPU clients over time?

No. That is by design.

Indeed.  This is why we are here isn't it?

I loaned a friend a few bucks for a poker game recently.  From my wallet to his hand.   I busted out, but he cashed.  He paid me a portion of his winnings.  From his hand to my wallet.

The only people who know about this transaction are those I chose to tell.  And there is pretty much no way to confirm or deny my experience.  You take it on good faith that my story is true or you assume I made it up. 

This is one way money has been transacted for millennia.

Bitcoin brings speed and verifiable transparency to commerce.  <- Valuable!

Monero inherits that speed but allows for the privacy we are accustomed to for cash transactions.  <- also valuable!

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 04:59:12 PM
For clarity, my assumptions above were that demand simply can't go lower, because it is as dead as it can get, and that supply to market is essentially equal to emission.

I think a rational risk-rating would be more like 10%, by hand-waving, so I think a fair value would be about 185 ksat, on what I regard as conservatively pessimistic grounds.

An alternative theory suggests itself, that the notional opportunity costs are higher in crypto, that the fiat RFR is a bad discounter, that the 40 ksat gap between my FVE of 185 and the market at 145 represents a 22%/an opportunity cost baked in by the crypto market.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on January 02, 2015, 05:16:44 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 04:59:12 PM
For clarity, my assumptions above were that demand simply can't go lower, because it is as dead as it can get, and that supply to market is essentially equal to emission.

Do you feel the same about bitcoin?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dewdeded on January 02, 2015, 05:31:33 PM
I would like to ask the people, who posted math- and statistic-based models or proofs which showed as clear outcome or resulted to the thesis, that Monero has a significant, long-term botmining-problem, that is harming the ecosystem und ecology development in for e.g. price.

Are you seeing, general problems, that all CPU-minable or maybe all CryptoNote-based coins share? (no specific Monero design related reasons)

Or you see a problem, that is inherent from Moneros coin setup restrictions (esp. distribution, mining setup, etc.). Meaning, it's a specific problem only Monero has in this strength.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 05:39:29 PM
Quote from: jehst on January 02, 2015, 05:16:44 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 04:59:12 PM
For clarity, my assumptions above were that demand simply can't go lower, because it is as dead as it can get, and that supply to market is essentially equal to emission.

Do you feel the same about bitcoin?

I see more potential for disgorgement in BTC, and put wider variance bands around demand, but have higher confidence that the demand will trend up over the next year.  In particular I have a strong expectation that COIN will get listed before 2016 (i.e. the constant amendments to the filing will eventually annoy the SEC enough to overcome their motivation to sit on it any longer), and will generate demand.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on January 02, 2015, 05:44:38 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 04:59:12 PM
For clarity, my assumptions above were that demand simply can't go lower, because it is as dead as it can get, and that supply to market is essentially equal to emission.

As dewdeded recognized, my post above concerning the rules of the game might have merit.

Kelly betting formula suggests that in a situation that is +EV and essentially binary (with a high probability you lose all, but with a small one you gain greatly), in absence of other investment opportunities, not considering the preferential entry point, not considering partial early cashout, you should invest the equal percentage of your capital to what is your probability of success.

Many have invested what they call "all" in monero. That is stupid. My thinking is that the probability of success is 10-20% (see how many altcoins have succeeded  :P ) and this is the cap of what you should invest, as a percentage of your bankroll.

Then there is the "aminorex cap" of how many % of monero you should buy at maximum. This comes into effect with surprisingly small investment capital - if you have even BTC1,000 you should also consider this and possibly limit the XMR amount accordingly.

With very small stakes that can effortlessly cash out at a whim, the situation cannot be regarded as a Kelly binary bet, and short term considerations of price over/undervaluation and scenario analysis come into play.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 05:55:55 PM
One should keep in mind that Kelly criterion doesn't really dominate until you get to a statistically usable number of bets.  
Our lives are technicolor anecdotes of miracles painted on a grey background of statistical ensembles which are scientifically determined.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dnaleor on January 02, 2015, 05:57:40 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 02, 2015, 05:44:38 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 04:59:12 PM
For clarity, my assumptions above were that demand simply can't go lower, because it is as dead as it can get, and that supply to market is essentially equal to emission.

As dewdeded recognized, my post above concerning the rules of the game might have merit.

Kelly betting formula suggests that in a situation that is +EV and essentially binary (with a high probability you lose all, but with a small one you gain greatly), in absence of other investment opportunities, not considering the preferential entry point, not considering partial early cashout, you should invest the equal percentage of your capital to what is your probability of success.

Many have invested what they call "all" in monero. That is stupid. My thinking is that the probability of success is 10-20% (see how many altcoins have succeeded  :P ) and this is the cap of what you should invest, as a percentage of your bankroll.

Then there is the "aminorex cap" of how many % of monero you should buy at maximum. This comes into effect with surprisingly small investment capital - if you have even BTC1,000 you should also consider this and possibly limit the XMR amount accordingly.

With very small stakes that can effortlessly cash out at a whim, the situation cannot be regarded as a Kelly binary bet, and short term considerations of price over/undervaluation and scenario analysis come into play.

or just go YOLO and hope XMR will succeed ;)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: pa on January 02, 2015, 06:16:34 PM
Quote from: dewdeded on January 02, 2015, 05:31:33 PM
I would like to ask the people, who posted math- and statistic-based models or proofs which showed as clear outcome or resulted to the thesis, that Monero has a significant, long-term botmining-problem, that is harming the ecosystem und ecology development in for e.g. price.

Are you seeing, general problems, that all CPU-minable or maybe all CryptoNote-based coins share? (no specific Monero design related reasons)

Or you see a problem, that is inherent from Moneros coin setup restrictions (esp. distribution, mining setup, etc.). Meaning, it's a specific problem only Monero has in this strength.

It's not surprising that the CryptoNote/Bytecoin scamdevs, one of whom (it was speculated in the rethink-your-strategy thread) may be a known botnet coder (see: http://www.computerworld.com/article/2500323/cybercrime-hacking/accused-kelihos-botnet-maker-worked-for-two-security-firms.html (http://www.computerworld.com/article/2500323/cybercrime-hacking/accused-kelihos-botnet-maker-worked-for-two-security-firms.html)), would have chosen mining algorithms that favor botnets.

Edit: I have no idea how botnet mining helps or hurts a crypto-currency's ecosystem.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 06:30:26 PM
I would expect more passive mining schemata, like MAID and STORJ, would be more appealling to botnets in the long run, as you can remain undetected in a much wider range of host environments.  ASIC algos are not botnet friendly, but they raise the barrier for punters by requiring a hardware purchase to stay in the game.  CPU/GPU algos I still think, despite the botnet issues, are a better choice for a new coin.  Botnets are providing transactional security no less than any other hash source.  We can prefer more upright sources, but I take comfort in the fact that botnet operators will likely dump ASAP, and distribute coins well, rather than hoarding.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: pa on January 02, 2015, 06:46:39 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 05:55:55 PM
Our lives are technicolor anecdotes of miracles painted on a grey background of statistical ensembles which are scientifically determined.

I am reminded of Aldous Huxley's "The Doors of Perception." It is important to keep things in perspective.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: ArticMine on January 02, 2015, 07:16:10 PM
Quote from: cAPSLOCK on January 02, 2015, 04:41:44 PM
Quote from: ArticMine on January 02, 2015, 05:26:32 AM
Quote from: urubu on January 02, 2015, 05:22:47 AM
Would it be possible to analyze the inputs to claymores wallet and estimate the percentage of mining done by GPU clients over time?

No. That is by design.

Indeed.  This is why we are here isn't it?

I loaned a friend a few bucks for a poker game recently.  From my wallet to his hand.   I busted out, but he cashed.  He paid me a portion of his winnings.  From his hand to my wallet.

The only people who know about this transaction are those I chose to tell.  And there is pretty much no way to confirm or deny my experience.  You take it on good faith that my story is true or you assume I made it up. 

This is one way money has been transacted for millennia.

Bitcoin brings speed and verifiable transparency to commerce.  <- Valuable!

Monero inherits that speed but allows for the privacy we are accustomed to for cash transactions.  <- also valuable!

The widespread introduction of third parties into financial transactions is actually a very recent phenomenon starting in the 1970s, and taking off in the 1980s and 1990s. Before then financial transactions were dominated by cash, and bearer instruments. As a baby boomer I am a member of the last generation that actually remembers experiencing a predominantly cash / bearer instrument society first hand. This is very important when introducing crypto currency to people over the age of 60. It is actually very simple. This is like cash that you can use on the Internet is my opening line. The next analogy is Bitcoin is like marked bills Moenro is like coins. They get it in an instant. On the other hand I was walking with a millennial (just over the age of 20) when a pan-handler approached us. His response to the pan-handler was "I only have debit". The cash analogy will fall flat with someone age 20.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: David Latapie on January 02, 2015, 08:14:22 PM
Quote from: dewdeded on January 02, 2015, 01:08:54 AM
I dont think Botnet mining will stay a big danger, in the long term.
Big text. I hope I did add some useful information to thread.
Interesting. I'd appreciate your opinon on Xulescu's botnet argument (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg9331099#msg9331099).
Quote from: cAPSLOCK on January 02, 2015, 04:41:44 PM
Bitcoin brings speed and verifiable transparency to commerce.  <- Valuable!

Monero inherits that speed but allows for the privacy we are accustomed to for cash transactions.  <- also valuable!
More than this: not only Monero is private, but it is also optionaly transparent How can Monero be both anonymous and transparent at the same time? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=721045.msg9781917#msg9781917)  <-  even more valuable
Quote from: dewdeded on January 01, 2015, 05:43:51 PM
But I can promise you, to buy you some beers and pizza at one the upcoming Monero meetups in the future (we both visit).
Weather is really nice in summer in Estonia.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on January 02, 2015, 10:53:44 PM
During past adoption waves, money floods the space and the top altcoins make relative highs against bitcoin. That goes for April as well as November. As long as XMR remains a top 10 mineable coin and top 20 overall, I think it is likely that XMR will reach .004 to .006 during the next big adoption wave. With a one year outlook, I don't think it's a 20% chance of success or 80% chance of failure scenario, but rather a leveraged bet. If bitcoin continues going down, you will lose money (measured in BTC) faster holding altcoins. If bitcoin goes up, you will gain BTC faster holding altcoins.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on January 02, 2015, 11:32:47 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 05:55:55 PM
One should keep in mind that Kelly criterion doesn't really dominate until you get to a statistically usable number of bets.

In the one year following from my long-shot initial investment in BTC in 2011, I invested similar amounts to about 5 other projects/businesses that all failed resulting in loss or total loss. The ones who think that I've been lucky with BTC are certainly right, but luck favors the ones who constantly probe the new opportunities and throw money at them.

If this year I will make it big with some of the new ventures, I am of course lucky, but it's good to remember that also during the last year I've sown the seeds to about 5 projects/businesses. The probability of luck is zero if you don't invest, and increases considerably if you do it methodologically.

I would count that in my 18-year career as an investor/businessman, I've been lucky twice.

I believe XMR is going to be the third instance of luck, but just for the possibility that it isn't, Kelly comes in handy  :D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on January 03, 2015, 12:47:12 AM
Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 05:55:55 PM
One should keep in mind that Kelly criterion doesn't really dominate until you get to a statistically usable number of bets.

You won't get that many bets on Monero and probably not cryptocurrencies, but you do get to make a lot of bets in a lifetime. You probably still don't get enough extreme long shot bets though, but these should only be very small bets (and therefore shouldn't cause much harm if they don't turn out) according to the stated rule.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on January 03, 2015, 03:24:25 AM
Quote from: jehst on January 02, 2015, 10:53:44 PM
During past adoption waves, money floods the space and the top altcoins make relative highs against bitcoin. ... If bitcoin continues going down, you will lose money (measured in BTC) faster holding altcoins. If bitcoin goes up, you will gain BTC faster holding altcoins.

I would qualify your comment:

I think there is another asymmetry here (besides the up/down range asymmetry).  I think the current price is currently dominated by the botnet dumping bound, which is not strongly connected to BTCUSD at all.  (It might have been when BTC was feasibly mined with a botnet, but certainly no longer.)  Thus the lower range is not connected to BTC.  When BTCUSD has a run up, it will slingshot XMR twice as hard, because XMR is in the quantum foam right now. BTC can go to zero and XMR compounds its hedge value and retains its utility (currently nigh zero).

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on January 03, 2015, 06:37:12 AM
Quote from: aminorex on January 03, 2015, 03:24:25 AM
XMR is in the quantum foam right now.

Hmm, you say that as if XMR can't possibly go any lower. I don't see any reason why it couldn't.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 02:54:33 PM
Quote from: jehst on January 03, 2015, 06:37:12 AM
Quote from: aminorex on January 03, 2015, 03:24:25 AM
XMR is in the quantum foam right now.

Hmm, you say that as if XMR can't possibly go any lower. I don't see any reason why it couldn't.

All traded assets experience changes in price if for example 2% of the marketcap wants to be bought or sold quickly.

Quantum foam (my try) is the assets whose price is so low that anyone can move it, volume is low, and there is no correlation between price and value. Bitcoin has last year gone to $102 (BTC-E), $116 (Mt.Gox), $275 (Bitstamp). Is any of these prices the value of bitcoin?

Bitcoin is also quantum foam, for which reason I don't care about its price until it rises to the measurable range of $3,000+. I just don't care. See the post history for proof ;)

XMR can go to as low as psychology dictates (my personal take is that this limit is about 15% of the established value of 0.004-0.0045).

Going there bears no correlation to the value of XMR. In 1918 Berlin you could sell an urban house (7 floors, 30 rental units) for $500. Just that someone offers you 0.0015 BTC for your XMR does not mean that selling is a good idea.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 03:22:04 PM
Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2015, 12:47:12 AM
Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 05:55:55 PM
One should keep in mind that Kelly criterion doesn't really dominate until you get to a statistically usable number of bets.

You won't get that many bets on Monero and probably not cryptocurrencies, but you do get to make a lot of bets in a lifetime. You probably still don't get enough extreme long shot bets though, but these should only be very small bets (and therefore shouldn't cause much harm if they don't turn out) according to the stated rule.

The rule not only restricts you from making stupid high bets, but also prods to make bets large enough.

In my case, after correctly estimating that Bitcoin has a 75% chance to die after dropping 90% from $32 in 2011, but a 25% chance of recovering to the ATH, I should have invested 25% of my net worth to it. And so should you :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on January 03, 2015, 03:37:21 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 02:54:33 PM

XMR can go to as low as psychology dictates (my personal take is that this limit is about 15% of the established value of 0.004-0.0045).


Most cryptocurrencies including LTC and BTC have gone as low as 5-10% of their all time highs. I think XMR can do the same. 0.0004 - 0.0008. That is about the same as your estimate.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on January 03, 2015, 04:00:13 PM
I am not a very black & white guy.  I like to reason things out from many perspectives, on the theory that the more lines of reasoning support a given thesis, the more likely it is that one of them will carry the field, and the thesis prove utile.  This can fail spectacularly when perspectives and premises are selected with strong bias, but usually works pretty well otherwise, in the very long tail.  jehst just illustrated this process nicely, and so thanks to jehst.

I particularly enjoyed Risto's construction on quantum foam.  Thank you for that one.  You articulated aspects of the analogy which were to me yet incohate.  I definitely agree that the observables (clearing price, order book) offer essentially zero signal/noise as estimators of the long term fundamental value (the attractor curve for the central tendency of clearing price over time) for the moment.



Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on January 03, 2015, 07:10:53 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 03:22:04 PM
In my case, after correctly estimating that Bitcoin has a 75% chance to die after dropping 90% from $32 in 2011, but a 25% chance of recovering to the ATH, I should have invested 25% of my net worth to it. And so should you :)

I think you underestimate the probability of XMR achieving large magnitude gains.  But I would argue that you (probably - I do not know) have already reached a share of market cap such that further increases would only damage the upside, and hence should not make the Kelly bet.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 10:26:21 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 03, 2015, 07:10:53 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 03:22:04 PM
In my case, after correctly estimating that Bitcoin has a 75% chance to die after dropping 90% from $32 in 2011, but a 25% chance of recovering to the ATH, I should have invested 25% of my net worth to it. And so should you :)

I think you underestimate the probability of XMR achieving large magnitude gains.  But I would argue that you (probably - I do not know) have already reached a share of market cap such that further increases would only damage the upside, and hence should not make the Kelly bet.

The irony is that even today, I explained to 2 wealthy ~50y guys, how the 3 investment approaches compare:

- cash flow regardless of valuation (Buffett, RE owning)
- valuation regardless of cash flow (RE development, speculation)
- long shot: +EV regardless of the chance of losing all (Kelly betting)

They are so mentally inclined to the 2 former ones that even the presenting of mathematically clear case of 1000x return in 5% probability in 3 years (268% expected APR), did not make them invest the 5% of their worth (or any smaller amount for that matter) to it.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: TrueCryptonaire on January 03, 2015, 10:33:22 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 10:26:21 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 03, 2015, 07:10:53 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 03:22:04 PM
In my case, after correctly estimating that Bitcoin has a 75% chance to die after dropping 90% from $32 in 2011, but a 25% chance of recovering to the ATH, I should have invested 25% of my net worth to it. And so should you :)

I think you underestimate the probability of XMR achieving large magnitude gains.  But I would argue that you (probably - I do not know) have already reached a share of market cap such that further increases would only damage the upside, and hence should not make the Kelly bet.

The irony is that even today, I explained to 2 wealthy ~50y guys, how the 3 investment approaches compare:

- cash flow regardless of valuation (Buffett, RE owning)
- valuation regardless of cash flow (RE development, speculation)
- long shot: +EV regardless of the chance of losing all (Kelly betting)

They are so mentally inclined to the 2 former ones that even the presenting of mathematically clear case of 1000x return in 5% probability in 3 years (268% expected APR), did not make them invest the 5% of their worth (or any smaller amount for that matter) to it.


This type of people are very risk averse. They do not like chance of losing money since they are about to retire soon.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on January 03, 2015, 11:03:12 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 03:22:04 PM
Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2015, 12:47:12 AM
Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2015, 05:55:55 PM
One should keep in mind that Kelly criterion doesn't really dominate until you get to a statistically usable number of bets.

You won't get that many bets on Monero and probably not cryptocurrencies, but you do get to make a lot of bets in a lifetime. You probably still don't get enough extreme long shot bets though, but these should only be very small bets (and therefore shouldn't cause much harm if they don't turn out) according to the stated rule.

The rule not only restricts you from making stupid high bets, but also prods to make bets large enough.

As an influencing factor -- that may influence some people to make good bets they might otherwise not risk -- it is certainly useful. But caution is still advised, since you never in general know the probability of success, and making bets that are too large is more costly than bets that are too small.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 11:09:20 PM
Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2015, 11:03:12 PM
As an influencing factor -- that may influence some people to make good bets they might otherwise not risk -- it is certainly useful. But caution is still advised, since you never in general know the probability of success, and making bets that are too large is more costly than bets that are too small.

With Kelly, you are quite well shielded if you make only the most long-shots possible. The bets which are +EV despite having a 5% probability of success come to you only a few times in your life. You cannot easily lose all your wealth if you invest 5% at a time.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on January 03, 2015, 11:32:56 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 11:09:20 PM
Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2015, 11:03:12 PM
As an influencing factor -- that may influence some people to make good bets they might otherwise not risk -- it is certainly useful. But caution is still advised, since you never in general know the probability of success, and making bets that are too large is more costly than bets that are too small.

With Kelly, you are quite well shielded if you make only the most long-shots possible. The bets which are +EV despite having a 5% probability of success come to you only a few times in your life. You cannot easily lose all your wealth if you invest 5% at a time.

That depends how aggressively you seek them out. I've made many 5% +EV (I hope) bets. EDIT: I think it is precisely because the people you described forgo these opportunities that they exist for those who are good at finding them.

Losing all your wealth isn't really the issue though. You literally can't do that unless you think something is 100% and are incorrect. But you can reduce your wealth and therefore reduce your return on other investments.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Liquid71 on January 04, 2015, 02:45:25 AM
Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2015, 11:32:56 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 11:09:20 PM
Quote from: smooth on January 03, 2015, 11:03:12 PM
As an influencing factor -- that may influence some people to make good bets they might otherwise not risk -- it is certainly useful. But caution is still advised, since you never in general know the probability of success, and making bets that are too large is more costly than bets that are too small.

With Kelly, you are quite well shielded if you make only the most long-shots possible. The bets which are +EV despite having a 5% probability of success come to you only a few times in your life. You cannot easily lose all your wealth if you invest 5% at a time.

That depends how aggressively you seek them out. I've made many 5% +EV (I hope) bets. EDIT: I think it is precisely because the people you described forgo these opportunities that they exist for those who are good at finding them.

Losing all your wealth isn't really the issue though. You literally can't do that unless you think something is 100% and are incorrect. But you can reduce your wealth and therefore reduce your return on other investments.


Gamblers often use "half kelly" on high variance +EV bets to reduce opportunity cost. A shrinking bankroll due to variance has opportunity cost, lowering bet size and return on lower variance +EV bets. Not a great comparison since a gambler is has many more opportunities to take risk than a longer term investor, but for those not comfortable with variance investing half on high risk high return investments might be a good idea.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Este Nuno on January 04, 2015, 05:21:55 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 10:26:21 PM
Quote from: aminorex on January 03, 2015, 07:10:53 PM
Quote from: rpietila on January 03, 2015, 03:22:04 PM
In my case, after correctly estimating that Bitcoin has a 75% chance to die after dropping 90% from $32 in 2011, but a 25% chance of recovering to the ATH, I should have invested 25% of my net worth to it. And so should you :)

I think you underestimate the probability of XMR achieving large magnitude gains.  But I would argue that you (probably - I do not know) have already reached a share of market cap such that further increases would only damage the upside, and hence should not make the Kelly bet.

The irony is that even today, I explained to 2 wealthy ~50y guys, how the 3 investment approaches compare:

- cash flow regardless of valuation (Buffett, RE owning)
- valuation regardless of cash flow (RE development, speculation)
- long shot: +EV regardless of the chance of losing all (Kelly betting)

They are so mentally inclined to the 2 former ones that even the presenting of mathematically clear case of 1000x return in 5% probability in 3 years (268% expected APR), did not make them invest the 5% of their worth (or any smaller amount for that matter) to it.


If you can accurately predict your EV on all three situations employing a full Kelly strategy with regard to money management optimizes growth in all cases. On high EV high perceived probability bets though it often turns out to be very aggressive and large percentages of the bankroll.

Accurately predicting EV in investing though is quite difficult of course though.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on January 18, 2015, 12:09:59 PM
Quote from: Vanderi on January 18, 2015, 11:28:26 AM
Bump

Would you like to talk about something in particular?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on February 24, 2015, 10:50:33 AM
Hello guys! :)

I took an hour to read the thread from beginning to end, as I was thinking what platform to use as the high-quality high-SNR medium of talking about Monero.

It was funny to find that I've been preaching essentially the same things ever since the beginning, with of course more information coming and changing the tone of voice and focus to different things.

Just today, I made the appearance to the Polo trollbox as HM_The_King (a tribute to my character in Crypto Kingdom) and told that the failure of Monero is in my estimation 75% certain and significant gain happens at 15% probability (10% being a wash) in 5 years' timeframe. And that due to these numbers, XMR is the best investment I have ever encountered in my life.

My thinking has not changed, this aspect is visible in my earlier writings, just more pronounced in the more recent ones. I think it is especially important to open this up when promoting XMR as investment, because:

- In the longer term, people who have no concept of the VC investment strategy, end up blaming you if the investment goes bust (and it's depressing to be blamed most of the time, since most of these investments do go bust - 70% is a typical VC total_loss rate). Yet they attribute all gains to their own foresight.

- In the shorter term, even if you can coerce somebody to buy, chances are that he is clueless about what the value is, and sells way too early, no matter at a profit or at a loss. Professional Venture Capitalists never sell prematurely. They only EXIT, which is defined as selling the investment at its full and realized value. They take the risk of variance in returns, and get rewarded handsomely. So should you.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: jehst on February 24, 2015, 12:58:24 PM
Quote from: rpietila on February 24, 2015, 10:50:33 AM
In the shorter term, even if you can coerce somebody to buy, chances are that he is clueless about what the value is, and sells way too early, no matter at a profit or at a loss. Professional Venture Capitalists never sell prematurely. They only EXIT, which is defined as selling the investment at its full and realized value. They take the risk of variance in returns, and get rewarded handsomely. So should you.

Don't worry about who you convince and who you don't convince. Everyone makes their own choices and must take responsibility for their own choices.
Betting on a 90% chance of losing everything with a 10% chance of becoming freed from debt-slavery is a very easy decision for me, though it seems hard for others. Because I believe I can make that bet 20 times before I die.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: wpalczynski on March 01, 2015, 12:27:21 AM
You can lead a horse to water but you cant make him drink.

Quote from: jehst on February 24, 2015, 12:58:24 PM
Quote from: rpietila on February 24, 2015, 10:50:33 AM
In the shorter term, even if you can coerce somebody to buy, chances are that he is clueless about what the value is, and sells way too early, no matter at a profit or at a loss. Professional Venture Capitalists never sell prematurely. They only EXIT, which is defined as selling the investment at its full and realized value. They take the risk of variance in returns, and get rewarded handsomely. So should you.

Don't worry about who you convince and who you don't convince. Everyone makes their own choices and must take responsibility for their own choices.
Betting on a 90% chance of losing everything with a 10% chance of becoming freed from debt-slavery is a very easy decision for me, though it seems hard for others. Because I believe I can make that bet 20 times before I die.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on March 01, 2015, 08:42:30 AM
Hmm... if only I had time to present them, I have many nice charts :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: opennux on March 01, 2015, 10:16:59 AM
Quote from: rpietila on March 01, 2015, 08:42:30 AM
Hmm... if only I had time to present them, I have many nice charts :)

PM 'em to me, or some data to me and I'll see what I can do (no promise) over the next few days?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: wpalczynski on March 01, 2015, 01:20:30 PM
Yeah Risto lets see the charts please.

Quote from: rpietila on March 01, 2015, 08:42:30 AM
Hmm... if only I had time to present them, I have many nice charts :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: KennyTheMartian on March 02, 2015, 07:35:43 PM
Quote from: rpietila on March 01, 2015, 08:42:30 AM
Hmm... if only I had time to present them, I have many nice charts :)
Who is dumping all this xmr, I sold only 5000 xmr to take the price down to .00161. Will hold or buy more to my stash if the price falls below .0013 but we'll see. Let's see some graphs Risto.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: dEBRUYNE on March 02, 2015, 07:50:56 PM
Quote from: KennyTheMartian on March 02, 2015, 07:35:43 PM
Quote from: rpietila on March 01, 2015, 08:42:30 AM
Hmm... if only I had time to present them, I have many nice charts :)
Who is dumping all this xmr, I sold only 5000 xmr to take the price down to .00161. Will hold or buy more to my stash if the price falls below .0013 but we'll see. Let's see some graphs Risto.

I guess you missed this -> https://vid.me/ima7

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: cAPSLOCK on March 02, 2015, 11:09:13 PM
Quote from: rpietila on March 02, 2015, 08:16:26 PM
Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 02, 2015, 07:50:56 PM
Quote from: KennyTheMartian on March 02, 2015, 07:35:43 PM
Quote from: rpietila on March 01, 2015, 08:42:30 AM
Hmm... if only I had time to present them, I have many nice charts :)
Who is dumping all this xmr, I sold only 5000 xmr to take the price down to .00161. Will hold or buy more to my stash if the price falls below .0013 but we'll see. Let's see some graphs Risto.

I guess you missed this -> https://vid.me/ima7

LMAO

That's a very swanky suit you're wearing there,,,

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on March 04, 2015, 08:41:23 PM
Code:
148,9	146,0	144,7	147,8	146,4	145,7	147,6		41,9	83,8	59,0	54,7	48,5	44,8	46,3
SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT		SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT

For the last 140 days, Monero average price (ksat) and average volume (kXMR) in Poloniex, by weekday.

Results do not show statistically significant variance in price by weekday, but do show that the average volume on Mondays is far higher (83.8k XMR) than in any of the other weekdays (41.9-59.0k XMR).


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: vokain on March 11, 2015, 08:52:15 AM
Can you please update the output to reflect the number of moneroj outstanding currently, preferably keeping the same number of holders?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: MalMen on March 11, 2015, 09:59:32 AM
Quote from: rpietila on March 04, 2015, 08:41:23 PM
Code:
148,9	146,0	144,7	147,8	146,4	145,7	147,6		41,9	83,8	59,0	54,7	48,5	44,8	46,3
SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT		SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT

For the last 140 days, Monero average price (ksat) and average volume (kXMR) in Poloniex, by weekday.

Results do not show statistically significant variance in price by weekday, but do show that the average volume on Mondays is far higher (83.8k XMR) than in any of the other weekdays (41.9-59.0k XMR).



Missives related moviments ?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on March 11, 2015, 03:55:44 PM
Quote from: MalMen on March 11, 2015, 09:59:32 AM
Quote from: rpietila on March 04, 2015, 08:41:23 PM
Code:
148,9	146,0	144,7	147,8	146,4	145,7	147,6		41,9	83,8	59,0	54,7	48,5	44,8	46,3
SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT		SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT

For the last 140 days, Monero average price (ksat) and average volume (kXMR) in Poloniex, by weekday.

Results do not show statistically significant variance in price by weekday, but do show that the average volume on Mondays is far higher (83.8k XMR) than in any of the other weekdays (41.9-59.0k XMR).



Missives related moviments ?

Good thinking! I was somewhat puzzled by that statistic, but I guess missives (and even trading in anticipation of missives) could very well be part of it.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on March 11, 2015, 04:17:21 PM
Quote from: smooth on March 11, 2015, 03:55:44 PM
Quote from: MalMen on March 11, 2015, 09:59:32 AM
Quote from: rpietila on March 04, 2015, 08:41:23 PM
Code:
148,9	146,0	144,7	147,8	146,4	145,7	147,6		41,9	83,8	59,0	54,7	48,5	44,8	46,3
SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT		SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT

For the last 140 days, Monero average price (ksat) and average volume (kXMR) in Poloniex, by weekday.

Results do not show statistically significant variance in price by weekday, but do show that the average volume on Mondays is far higher (83.8k XMR) than in any of the other weekdays (41.9-59.0k XMR).



Missives related moviments ?

Good thinking! I was somewhat puzzled by that statistic, but I guess missives (and even trading in anticipation of missives) could very well be part of it.

Funny that it does not correspond to any divergence of the price :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: cAPSLOCK on March 11, 2015, 04:42:31 PM
Quote from: rpietila on March 02, 2015, 08:16:26 PM
Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 02, 2015, 07:50:56 PM
Quote from: KennyTheMartian on March 02, 2015, 07:35:43 PM
Quote from: rpietila on March 01, 2015, 08:42:30 AM
Hmm... if only I had time to present them, I have many nice charts :)
Who is dumping all this xmr, I sold only 5000 xmr to take the price down to .00161. Will hold or buy more to my stash if the price falls below .0013 but we'll see. Let's see some graphs Risto.

I guess you missed this -> https://vid.me/ima7

LMAO

LMAO a little louder now, yes?  Anonymous joker gave up at least 75BTC to us bulls.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on March 11, 2015, 04:56:37 PM
Quote from: cAPSLOCK on March 11, 2015, 04:42:31 PM
LMAO a little louder now, yes?  Anonymous joker gave up at least 75BTC to us bulls.

Anonymous jokers never had 50k to begin with. The guy was a miner, he needed the money and would have sold anyway.

Making the video gave him some good laughs when compiling it. But I don't believe he lost anything since he did not sell for the video.

He probably soon has the stash replenished and needs to consider the prudent course of action.  ;)

I am not downplaying the legendary timing of the video and am grateful of the nice pic in it  :D

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smooth on March 11, 2015, 05:15:52 PM
Quote from: rpietila on March 11, 2015, 04:17:21 PM
Quote from: smooth on March 11, 2015, 03:55:44 PM
Quote from: MalMen on March 11, 2015, 09:59:32 AM
Quote from: rpietila on March 04, 2015, 08:41:23 PM
Code:
148,9	146,0	144,7	147,8	146,4	145,7	147,6		41,9	83,8	59,0	54,7	48,5	44,8	46,3
SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT		SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT

For the last 140 days, Monero average price (ksat) and average volume (kXMR) in Poloniex, by weekday.

Results do not show statistically significant variance in price by weekday, but do show that the average volume on Mondays is far higher (83.8k XMR) than in any of the other weekdays (41.9-59.0k XMR).



Missives related moviments ?

Good thinking! I was somewhat puzzled by that statistic, but I guess missives (and even trading in anticipation of missives) could very well be part of it.

Funny that it does not correspond to any divergence of the price :)

I wonder about volatility over the course of the day though. But I don't wonder enough to actually calculate it :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Lloydimiller4 on April 08, 2015, 10:19:11 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 12:48:48 PM
It is always good to see how you rank compared to others in owning a coin. But how?

With Monero, the blockchain provides no help in determining balances. So the distribution of holdings must be constructed purely theoretically. What we use in the analysis of this post is just the following information:

- Number of XMR (about 2.2 million when this was done);
- Assumption that the distribution follows power law for the highest 3% of the holders (it does if we are talking about general wealth) - the power law distribution has the property that the owners of 100-200 coins collectively own the same number of coins as the ones owning 200-400 coins etc. But their number is 2x higher (because the other group was 2x richer), and the density is 4x more (because not only there was 2x the number of people, but also the bracket is in absolute terms only half the size);
- Below that, the distribution forms a nice bulge centered around the median holding and drops quickly towards insignificant holdings;

I have calculated 2 possibilities that give the result for both 5,200 and 13,200 holders. The results are presented in logarithmic brackets that are 0.333 log10 units wide (unlike my usual precision of 1 log unit, this gives 3 times more information). The exact form of the very top (holdings of the top-5 or so holders) affects the distribution somewhat, but with XMR it cannot be deduced either directly or statistically. I have assumed that the Case A scenario has a large outlier but Case B does not have it.


Case A - 5,200 holders:

Code:
	min		max	avg	#ppl	tot.xmr
17				280 000	1	280 000
16	100 000	-	215 443	142 600	1	171 034
15	46 416	-	100 000	66 189	3	171 034
14	21 544	-	46 416	30 722	6	171 034
13	10 000	-	21 544	14 260	12	171 034
12	4 642	-	10 000	6 619	26	171 034
11	2 154	-	4 642	3 072	56	171 034
10	1 000	-	2 154	1 426	120	171 034
9	464	-	1 000	662	300	198 468
8	215	-	464	307	750	230 301
7	100	-	215	143	1 349	192 413
6	46	-	100	66	1 349	89 310
5	22	-	46	31	750	23 030
4	10	-	22	14	300	4 276
3	5	-	10	7	120	794
2	2	-	5	3	36	111
1	1	-	2	1	11	15

Largest holdings:
1. 280,000 XMR
2. 147,000 XMR
3. 80,000 XMR
4. 65,000 XMR
5. 50,000 XMR

top holding:  280,000 XMR
top 10:  22,500 XMR
top 100:  2,200   XMR
top 1000:  285 XMR
      
# of holders: 5,188   
avg holding:  427 XMR
==  1.92 BTC
==  1,211   USD
median holding: 100 XMR   
half of the coins belong to 43 people


Case B - 13,200 holders:

Code:
	min		max	avg	#ppl	tot.xmr
17						
16	100 000	-	215 443	142 600	1,2	165 745
15	46 416	-	100 000	66 189	2,5	165 745
14	21 544	-	46 416	30 722	5,4	165 745
13	10 000	-	21 544	14 260	12	165 745
12	4 642	-	10 000	6 619	25	165 745
11	2 154	-	4 642	3 072	54	165 745
10	1 000	-	2 154	1 426	116	165 745
9	464	-	1 000	662	291	192 329
8	215	-	464	307	726	223 179
7	100	-	215	143	1 816	258 976
6	46	-	100	66	3 632	240 412
5	22	-	46	31	3 632	111 589
4	10	-	22	14	1 816	25 898
3	4,6	-	10,0	6,6	726	4 808
2	2,2	-	4,6	3,1	291	893
1	1,0	-	2,2	1,4	87	124

Largest holdings:
1. 137,000 XMR
2. 80,000 XMR
3. 65,000 XMR
4. 50,000 XMR

top holding:  137,000 XMR
top 10:  20,500 XMR
top 100:  2,150   XMR
top 1000:  270 XMR
      
# of holders: 13,234   
avg holding:  167 XMR
==  0.75 BTC
==  473   USD
median holding: 46 XMR   
half of the coins belong to 150 people.

I believe these holding calculations are a bit outdated, Risto, would you be willing to give us an update on what you believe the current distribution of holders is now?
I would be very interested to see where I am at.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on April 09, 2015, 01:28:39 PM
Code:
			25130	7314743
b_min	b_max	b_avg	#owners	XMRtot
367002	734003	519019	1	519019
183501	367002	259509	2	519019
91750	183501	129755	4	519019
45875	91750	64877	8	519019
22938	45875	32439	16	519019
11469	22938	16219	32	519019
5734	11469	8110	64	519019
2867	5734	4055	128	519019
1434	2867	2027	256	519019
717	1434	1014	512	519019
358	717	507	1126	570921
179	358	253	2253	570921
90	179	127	3604	456736
45	90	63	4686	296879
22	45	32	4686	148439
11	22	16	3604	57092
6	11	8	2253	17841
3	6	4	1126	4460
1	3	2	512	1014
0	1	1	256	253

As you quoted, this is based on a completely desktop-statistical methodology relying on the assumptions that XMR distribution is a market phenomenon. For pre/insta/nonmineable coins this is not at all true. I believe it is true for XMR since I know its history.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: e-coinomist on April 09, 2015, 04:44:41 PM
Quote from: rpietila on April 09, 2015, 01:28:39 PM
As you quoted, this is based on a completely desktop-statistical methodology relying on the assumptions that XMR distribution is a market phenomenon. For pre/insta/nonmineable coins this is not at all true. I believe it is true for XMR since I know its history.

Top 3 miningpools should be able to estimate number of wallets beeing in existance, seen Dwarf made a good job employing cookies to group miner's wallets, if they take network hashrate in relation to their own rate that gives you total number of miner's wallets.
Somehow this intersects with probably more precise numbers obtainable from inside Poloniex. Uncertainity on who is separating the mining from trading remains. But pure hodler who mine to not sell now (or tomorrow), are a very rare species. Their wallets would appear as beeing single additional entities.
At least there you get people with short time involvement added, who never bothered to even install the software. Unkommon behavier if you compare with cryptocoin involvement motivations, those count for probable new adopters.

Your completely desktop-statistical methodology relies on some inputs which are precisely known, like coins in existance. Number of wallets would add solidity to these data. I believe if one knows market dynamics, total supply, and number people involved this models reality with some decent accuracy.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: bitebits on July 04, 2015, 04:36:51 PM
Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: illodin on July 04, 2015, 08:16:34 PM
Quote from: bitebits on July 04, 2015, 04:36:51 PM
Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

Like what for example?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: iCEBREAKER on July 04, 2015, 09:18:25 PM
Quote from: illodin on July 04, 2015, 08:16:34 PM
Quote from: bitebits on July 04, 2015, 04:36:51 PM
Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

Like what for example?

The same applications of transparent distributed ledgers that Bitcoin is being used for.

Mixin=0 and there you go, BTC style public transactions and accountability.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: bbreconomy on July 04, 2015, 11:51:19 PM
Quote from: rpietila on April 09, 2015, 01:28:39 PM
Code:
			25130	7314743
b_min	b_max	b_avg	#owners	XMRtot
367002	734003	519019	1	519019
183501	367002	259509	2	519019
91750	183501	129755	4	519019
45875	91750	64877	8	519019
22938	45875	32439	16	519019
11469	22938	16219	32	519019
5734	11469	8110	64	519019
2867	5734	4055	128	519019
1434	2867	2027	256	519019
717	1434	1014	512	519019
358	717	507	1126	570921
179	358	253	2253	570921
90	179	127	3604	456736
45	90	63	4686	296879
22	45	32	4686	148439
11	22	16	3604	57092
6	11	8	2253	17841
3	6	4	1126	4460
1	3	2	512	1014
0	1	1	256	253

As you quoted, this is based on a completely desktop-statistical methodology relying on the assumptions that XMR distribution is a market phenomenon. For pre/insta/nonmineable coins this is not at all true. I believe it is true for XMR since I know its history.



Thank you for sharing this estimate.

Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: bitebits on July 05, 2015, 07:40:39 AM
Quote from: iCEBREAKER on July 04, 2015, 09:18:25 PM
Quote from: bitebits on July 04, 2015, 04:36:51 PM
Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

The same applications of transparent distributed ledgers that Bitcoin is being used for.

Mixin=0 and there you go, BTC style public transactions and accountability.

Thanks for your reply, cool that you can actually choose the level of anonimity! I am reading into this viewkey option, all really interesting.

For new people to Monero, Published on Jun 10, 2015 / Riccardo "fluffypony" Spagni talks about transactional privacy and Monero at Bitcoinference: Monero Talk at Bitcoinference (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEVm1dMn5Ks)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: rpietila on July 06, 2015, 03:24:48 PM
Quote from: bbreconomy on July 04, 2015, 11:51:19 PM
Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

(I don't believe we even have 25000 owners right now. That much could be the total number of people exposed to XMR but many of them are at zero balance.)

Price will rise as money enters in. We have the moneroinvestment.com site, which will soon be polished for launch and will target midclass people who are interested in buying 10-100k XMR with fiat. Even a few of these guys can raise the price significantly.

CK has potential to absolutely explode XMR. At present, about 1% of XMR is already in CK account, so if we get "even" 100,000 new players, the price will have to go up by 10x to accommodate the equivalent new buying. Of course not every game makes it big, so this is more speculative than the 'new investors' case, which is clear as sky, only variable is timing.

I don't think the wallets or merchants matter that much, but I am pretty alone with this opinion, so perhaps they do :)

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: TrueCryptonaire on July 06, 2015, 04:30:11 PM
Quote from: rpietila on July 06, 2015, 03:24:48 PM
Quote from: bbreconomy on July 04, 2015, 11:51:19 PM
Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

(I don't believe we even have 25000 owners right now. That much could be the total number of people exposed to XMR but many of them are at zero balance.)

Price will rise as money enters in. We have the moneroinvestment.com site, which will soon be polished for launch and will target midclass people who are interested in buying 10-100k XMR with fiat. Even a few of these guys can raise the price significantly.

CK has potential to absolutely explode XMR. At present, about 1% of XMR is already in CK account, so if we get "even" 100,000 new players, the price will have to go up by 10x to accommodate the equivalent new buying. Of course not every game makes it big, so this is more speculative than the 'new investors' case, which is clear as sky, only variable is timing.

I don't think the wallets or merchants matter that much, but I am pretty alone with this opinion, so perhaps they do :)

Obviously this depends on what kind of merchants Monero attracts.
A merchant who wants to convert the whole payment into fiat is not that beneficial as a merchant that holds the payment completely or partially in Monero.
The advantage of these "good" merchants is they create higher marketcap for the coin via bringing added value to the community and marketcap.
The added value coems via transactional demand: instead a person uses both XMR and fiat, he can use only XMR or higher proportion of XMR. And the merchants becomes a bagholder in the best case scenario.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Blazin8888 on August 22, 2016, 10:02:39 PM
How much XMR is available for sale? - on all exchanges? - where would the price be if the supply dried up?

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smoothie on August 23, 2016, 01:37:07 AM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  :-\

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: tokeweed on August 23, 2016, 01:50:49 AM
Quote from: smoothie on August 23, 2016, 01:37:07 AM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  :-\

I was thinking, would it be possible for a Dark Net exchange for crypto? Would that idea fly? Is there that many Dark Net traders/merchants and buyers to support a healthy Dark market for trading?  Laundering their money cheaply would be their key motivation here.  Son instead of using BTC as the base currency, it would be XMR.  So everyone dealing with BTC would want to trade for XMR in the Dark Net for better anonymity.

 

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: aminorex on August 23, 2016, 02:08:18 AM
Quote from: smoothie on August 23, 2016, 01:37:07 AM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  :-\

Bitsquare.io

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: smoothie on August 23, 2016, 02:10:49 AM
Quote from: aminorex on August 23, 2016, 02:08:18 AM
Quote from: smoothie on August 23, 2016, 01:37:07 AM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  :-\

Bitsquare.io

Yes, but that remains to be used en masse. Still I feel people won't learn until they get burned...again.

I hope I'm wrong in my assumptions about Poloniex and it being too centralized.


Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: saddambitcoin on August 23, 2016, 02:23:32 AM
Quote from: tokeweed on August 23, 2016, 01:50:49 AM
Quote from: smoothie on August 23, 2016, 01:37:07 AM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  :-\

I was thinking, would it be possible for a Dark Net exchange for crypto? Would that idea fly? Is there that many Dark Net traders/merchants and buyers to support a healthy Dark market for trading?  Laundering their money cheaply would be their key motivation here.  Son instead of using BTC as the base currency, it would be XMR.  So everyone dealing with BTC would want to trade for XMR in the Dark Net for better anonymity.

I'm sure it is possible but the counterparty risk would be insane, how much XMR would you trust to an anonymous exchange? Maybe they are legit but get hacked, or say they got hacked and run an exit scam with user deposits. Can't even trace where the stolen funds are going.

I do agree and hope that some more exchanges become seriously interested in Monero now. Poloniex is great but they were down for about 5 minutes yesterday (some sort of outage), it essentially stops the entire XMR ecosystem because everyone (xmr.to, shapeshift) is relying on their api for the exchange rate.

Decentralized exchanges like Bitsquare are a good step.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: bigfryguy on August 23, 2016, 03:53:31 AM
waves DEX should be up and running in a few months, Im sure that almost all high volume coins will be traded there.  It will supposedly use existing exchanges for centralized pair matching, while using the blockchain to keep it decentralized in the wallet..

Sasha: “‘DEX’, is a term from James, from SuperNet. This is the thing I told you about. It is centralized order matching with decentralized settlement. DEX is a distributed exchange. James had another idea. He wanted to do it completely peer-to-peer with centralized matching and decentralized settlement. So you will have very fast trading, like in Poloniex.”

Sasha: “We are writing the code already. We are writing the crypto-currency part, the blockchain part, and will be starting to code the centralized matcher. We will be working with certain existing crypto-currency exchanges that can offer their services. They will be handling the matching. We also want to offer independent solutions. So, a matching module can be installed by anyone who wants to launch his or her own crypto-currency exchange utilizing this matcher.

havent been a fan of XMR for a long time because of its centralized trading system negating almost all its use(and other things unrelated to the tech), but if you guys can get xmr trading quickly and without KYC/AML  I may change my mind.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: windale on August 23, 2016, 05:29:05 AM
Quote from: smoothie on August 23, 2016, 01:37:07 AM
I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  :-\

is only one exchanger central in big volume transaction is not good, and poloniex is only big volume transaction in monero, bitrex is very low volume transaction monero
its coin good is decentalized coin in much exchanger
big coin big volume is all decentralized
you can see litecoin ethereum or dogecoin we are decentralized and much exchanger acceptep trade

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Globb0 on August 23, 2016, 07:36:04 AM
Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 23, 2016, 02:23:32 AM


I'm sure it is possible but the counterparty risk would be insane, how much XMR would you trust to an anonymous exchange? Maybe they are legit but get hacked, or say they got hacked and run an exit scam with user deposits. Can't even trace where the stolen funds are going.


Its not like we got the money back from the sharex exit scam, the bitcoin ledger didn't help there. Just a lot of wishful thinkers threatening to dox it somehow.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: bbc.reporter on August 23, 2016, 10:51:48 AM
I have a suggestion to help improve Monero's economy. It is simple and practical. I have recently read the news that 2 darknet market places will accept XMR starting on September 1. So why not create a light wallet complete with GUI. I am very sure that the people who buy and sell in the darknet will not have the patience to download the whole blockchain. It will be more convenient for them to have a light wallet. It will also help in gaining faster adoption.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: Globb0 on August 23, 2016, 10:58:36 AM
Wit the change to an LMDB implementation, I think the long blockchain download will be obsolete. Not sure where that is in terms of being released to live.



Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: hyc on August 23, 2016, 12:28:48 PM
Quote from: Globb0 on August 23, 2016, 10:58:36 AM
Wit the change to an LMDB implementation, I think the long blockchain download will be obsolete. Not sure where that is in terms of being released to live.

The wallet improvement is actually unrelated to LMDB. I'll probably get around to integrating LMDB into the wallet later, but the performance gain in the new wallet code is completely independent of that. On a modern PC you can sync a newly created wallet in under 10 seconds.

This shows the difference in wallet refresh, running on an old machine with 2.2GHz CPU - from several minutes down to 16 seconds:
https://gist.github.com/hyc/e7381c2369398f2eaa93f2bb25a31dd4

If people don't have the patience to wait 10-15 seconds to initialize their wallets, they're just being ridiculous.

Title: Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread
Post by: xmr_eric on January 03, 2017, 01:06:44 AM
Hi Risto. Can you update the numbers one more time?


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