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Author Topic: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread  (Read 70059 times)
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rpietila (OP)
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August 18, 2014, 10:16:46 AM
 #221

Less economics than speculation, but...

I am calling a bottom on Monero (BTC/XMR rate).

- I already predicted in a certain speculation group about 9 days ago that the bottom would be Sunday, Aug 17.

- Now I am not sure if it will be yesterday or tomorrow, since there is a compelling case for tomorrow also: in 2014-8-19 it will be 37 days from the last bottom, which also was 37 days from the previous one. The lowest prices are aligned at 175005 sat, 231500 sat, and (so far) 290000 sat. The difference between the first ones is 56495 sat and the last ones 58500 sat. There seems to be a cosmic tendency towards symmetry here, so a dip slightly below 290000 may happen tomorrow, but if so, it must be before the market participants start bidding the price up.

- During the dip to sub-3, only 14k moneros have so far been transacted sub-3 (Poloniex). Nobody seems to have much urge of selling them so cheap.

- Of course I know the market dynamics that are causing Monero (which fundamentally is a beneficiary of Bitcoin's troubles) to be double-hammered (in USD/BTC and BTC/XMR both tanking). I just believe that it is over and if not, then it might make sense to buy, if your position is so small that it is possible with the meager depth offered.

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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August 18, 2014, 10:29:40 AM
 #222

Less economics than speculation, but...

I am calling a bottom on Monero (BTC/XMR rate).

- I already predicted in a certain speculation group about 9 days ago that the bottom would be Sunday, Aug 17.

- Now I am not sure if it will be yesterday or tomorrow, since there is a compelling case for tomorrow also: in 2014-8-19 it will be 37 days from the last bottom, which also was 37 days from the previous one. The lowest prices are aligned at 175005 sat, 231500 sat, and (so far) 290000 sat. The difference between the first ones is 56495 sat and the last ones 58500 sat. There seems to be a cosmic tendency towards symmetry here, so a dip slightly below 290000 may happen tomorrow, but if so, it must be before the market participants start bidding the price up.

- During the dip to sub-3, only 14k moneros have so far been transacted sub-3 (Poloniex). Nobody seems to have much urge of selling them so cheap.

- Of course I know the market dynamics that are causing Monero (which fundamentally is a beneficiary of Bitcoin's troubles) to be double-hammered (in USD/BTC and BTC/XMR both tanking). I just believe that it is over and if not, then it might make sense to buy, if your position is so small that it is possible with the meager depth offered.

Thank you, sir.

Interestingly your prediction coincides with that of Aminorex, who thought, that rally will start around august 20th.
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August 18, 2014, 01:26:13 PM
 #223

Technically, I was not talking about a rally but a bottom. Well, it is kind of same thing. But external events (btc) may postpone the actual rally, or cause volatility.

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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August 18, 2014, 10:27:15 PM
 #224

Chart is poised to repeat the July 13th type of turnaround.  More and more, the buzz I am starting to hear is about XMR displacing DRK and even LTC.  Even some skeptics seem to be commenting on the fundamentals, and in light of the CN controversy and how that is shaking out I am personally putting a bit of money where my mouth is right now.

I'm not an investment guru, but things just look twitchy right here... in a good way.

Obviously, there is far to go (messy code, database, gui, etc) , and the emission is still aggressive, but I feel like we are at a sort of critical tipping point possibly.
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August 18, 2014, 10:44:43 PM
 #225

Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

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August 18, 2014, 10:49:34 PM
 #226

Chart is poised to repeat the July 13th type of turnaround.  More and more, the buzz I am starting to hear is about XMR displacing DRK and even LTC.  Even some skeptics seem to be commenting on the fundamentals, and in light of the CN controversy and how that is shaking out I am personally putting a bit of money where my mouth is right now.

I'm not an investment guru, but things just look twitchy right here... in a good way.

Obviously, there is far to go (messy code, database, gui, etc) , and the emission is still aggressive, but I feel like we are at a sort of critical tipping point possibly.

If DRK/XMR stays below 1, this is going to get very interesting. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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August 19, 2014, 07:18:27 AM
 #227

Just checking in to say I am very glad monero is holding up so well in this bear market. Gives me confidence in the coin and shows me that the people who have invested are serious about this for the long term. It has some serious potential.
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August 19, 2014, 12:02:40 PM
 #228

Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

anyone who deems an altcoin an investment on grounds of its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects is disproportionately likely to have need of a manhattan psychiatrist (and ability to pay).  i may go there myself.  do they still prescribe quaaludes?

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 19, 2014, 04:39:02 PM
 #229

Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

Shrink finds his perfect demographic. Great news for XMR perma-bulls, they can now get the help they need without being traced through the blockchain


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August 19, 2014, 08:25:04 PM
 #230

Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

anyone who deems an altcoin an investment on grounds of its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects is disproportionately likely to have need of a manhattan psychiatrist (and ability to pay).  i may go there myself.  do they still prescribe quaaludes?

i'm not sure what is the modern-day equivalent to quaaludes, maybe xanax? i don't like either tbh. i'm sure you could get some amphetamines though, for your adult ADD. i enjoyed vyvanse for years but its too habit forming, ahh

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August 22, 2014, 01:49:16 PM
 #231

Any projections as to when the emission rate will decrease for Monero?

Code:
day	coins	new
18.4.2014 15 580 25 333
19.4.2014 40 891 25 311
20.4.2014 66 168 25 277
21.4.2014 91 410 25 242
22.4.2014 116 617 25 207
23.4.2014 141 790 25 173
24.4.2014 166 928 25 138
25.4.2014 192 031 25 104
26.4.2014 217 100 25 069
27.4.2014 242 135 25 035
28.4.2014 267 135 25 000
29.4.2014 292 101 24 966
30.4.2014 317 033 24 932
1.5.2014 341 930 24 897
2.5.2014 366 793 24 863
3.5.2014 391 622 24 829
4.5.2014 416 417 24 795
5.5.2014 441 178 24 761
6.5.2014 465 905 24 727
7.5.2014 490 598 24 693
8.5.2014 515 257 24 659
9.5.2014 539 882 24 625
10.5.2014 564 473 24 591
11.5.2014 589 031 24 558
12.5.2014 613 555 24 524
13.5.2014 638 045 24 490
14.5.2014 662 501 24 457
15.5.2014 686 924 24 423
16.5.2014 711 314 24 389
17.5.2014 735 670 24 356
18.5.2014 759 992 24 322
19.5.2014 784 281 24 289
20.5.2014 808 537 24 256
21.5.2014 832 759 24 222
22.5.2014 856 948 24 189
23.5.2014 881 104 24 156
24.5.2014 905 227 24 123
25.5.2014 929 317 24 090
26.5.2014 953 373 24 057
27.5.2014 977 397 24 023
28.5.2014 1 001 387 23 990
29.5.2014 1 025 345 23 958
30.5.2014 1 049 269 23 925
31.5.2014 1 073 161 23 892
1.6.2014 1 097 020 23 859
2.6.2014 1 120 846 23 826
3.6.2014 1 144 640 23 793
4.6.2014 1 168 401 23 761
5.6.2014 1 192 129 23 728
6.6.2014 1 215 824 23 696
7.6.2014 1 239 487 23 663
8.6.2014 1 263 118 23 631
9.6.2014 1 286 716 23 598
10.6.2014 1 310 282 23 566
11.6.2014 1 333 815 23 533
12.6.2014 1 357 316 23 501
13.6.2014 1 380 785 23 469
14.6.2014 1 404 222 23 437
15.6.2014 1 427 626 23 404
16.6.2014 1 450 998 23 372
17.6.2014 1 474 338 23 340
18.6.2014 1 497 646 23 308
19.6.2014 1 520 922 23 276
20.6.2014 1 544 166 23 244
21.6.2014 1 567 379 23 212
22.6.2014 1 590 559 23 180
23.6.2014 1 613 707 23 148
24.6.2014 1 636 824 23 117
25.6.2014 1 659 909 23 085
26.6.2014 1 682 962 23 053
27.6.2014 1 705 984 23 022
28.6.2014 1 728 974 22 990
29.6.2014 1 751 932 22 958
30.6.2014 1 774 859 22 927
1.7.2014 1 797 754 22 895
2.7.2014 1 820 618 22 864
3.7.2014 1 843 451 22 833
4.7.2014 1 866 252 22 801
5.7.2014 1 889 022 22 770
6.7.2014 1 911 760 22 739
7.7.2014 1 934 467 22 707
8.7.2014 1 957 144 22 676
9.7.2014 1 979 789 22 645
10.7.2014 2 002 403 22 614
11.7.2014 2 024 985 22 583
12.7.2014 2 047 537 22 552
13.7.2014 2 070 058 22 521
14.7.2014 2 092 548 22 490
15.7.2014 2 115 007 22 459
16.7.2014 2 137 435 22 428
17.7.2014 2 159 833 22 397
18.7.2014 2 182 199 22 367
19.7.2014 2 204 535 22 336
20.7.2014 2 226 841 22 305
21.7.2014 2 249 115 22 275
22.7.2014 2 271 359 22 244
23.7.2014 2 293 573 22 214
24.7.2014 2 315 756 22 183
25.7.2014 2 337 908 22 153
26.7.2014 2 368 839 22 122
27.7.2014 2 390 919 22 080
28.7.2014 2 412 968 22 049
29.7.2014 2 434 987 22 019
30.7.2014 2 456 976 21 989
31.7.2014 2 478 934 21 959
1.8.2014 2 500 863 21 928
2.8.2014 2 522 761 21 898
3.8.2014 2 544 629 21 868
4.8.2014 2 566 468 21 838
5.8.2014 2 588 276 21 808
6.8.2014 2 610 054 21 778
7.8.2014 2 631 803 21 748
8.8.2014 2 653 521 21 719
9.8.2014 2 675 210 21 689
10.8.2014 2 696 869 21 659
11.8.2014 2 718 498 21 629
12.8.2014 2 740 097 21 599
13.8.2014 2 761 667 21 570
14.8.2014 2 783 207 21 540
15.8.2014 2 804 718 21 511
16.8.2014 2 826 199 21 481
17.8.2014 2 847 651 21 452
18.8.2014 2 869 073 21 422
19.8.2014 2 890 465 21 393
20.8.2014 2 911 829 21 363
21.8.2014 2 933 163 21 334
22.8.2014 2 954 467 21 305
23.8.2014 2 975 743 21 275
24.8.2014 2 996 989 21 246
25.8.2014 3 018 206 21 217
26.8.2014 3 039 394 21 188
27.8.2014 3 060 552 21 159
28.8.2014 3 081 682 21 130
29.8.2014 3 102 783 21 101
30.8.2014 3 123 855 21 072
31.8.2014 3 144 897 21 043
1.9.2014 3 165 911 21 014
2.9.2014 3 186 896 20 985
3.9.2014 3 207 853 20 956
4.9.2014 3 228 780 20 927
5.9.2014 3 249 679 20 899
6.9.2014 3 270 549 20 870
7.9.2014 3 291 390 20 841
8.9.2014 3 312 203 20 813
9.9.2014 3 332 987 20 784
10.9.2014 3 353 742 20 756
11.9.2014 3 374 469 20 727
12.9.2014 3 395 168 20 699
13.9.2014 3 415 838 20 670
14.9.2014 3 436 480 20 642
15.9.2014 3 457 094 20 613
16.9.2014 3 477 679 20 585
17.9.2014 3 498 236 20 557
18.9.2014 3 518 764 20 529
19.9.2014 3 539 265 20 500
20.9.2014 3 559 737 20 472
21.9.2014 3 580 181 20 444
22.9.2014 3 600 597 20 416
23.9.2014 3 620 985 20 388
24.9.2014 3 641 345 20 360
25.9.2014 3 661 678 20 332
26.9.2014 3 681 982 20 304
27.9.2014 3 702 258 20 276
28.9.2014 3 722 507 20 248
29.9.2014 3 742 727 20 221
30.9.2014 3 762 920 20 193
1.10.2014 3 783 085 20 165
2.10.2014 3 803 223 20 137
3.10.2014 3 823 333 20 110
4.10.2014 3 843 415 20 082
5.10.2014 3 863 469 20 055
6.10.2014 3 883 497 20 027
7.10.2014 3 903 496 20 000
8.10.2014 3 923 468 19 972
9.10.2014 3 943 413 19 945
10.10.2014 3 963 330 19 917
11.10.2014 3 983 220 19 890
12.10.2014 4 003 083 19 863
13.10.2014 4 022 918 19 835
14.10.2014 4 042 726 19 808
15.10.2014 4 062 507 19 781
16.10.2014 4 082 261 19 754
17.10.2014 4 101 987 19 727
18.10.2014 4 121 687 19 700
19.10.2014 4 141 359 19 672
20.10.2014 4 161 005 19 645
21.10.2014 4 180 623 19 618
22.10.2014 4 200 215 19 592
23.10.2014 4 219 780 19 565
24.10.2014 4 239 317 19 538
25.10.2014 4 258 828 19 511
26.10.2014 4 278 312 19 484
27.10.2014 4 297 770 19 457
28.10.2014 4 317 200 19 431
29.10.2014 4 336 604 19 404
30.10.2014 4 355 982 19 377
31.10.2014 4 375 332 19 351
1.11.2014 4 394 657 19 324
2.11.2014 4 413 954 19 298
3.11.2014 4 433 225 19 271
4.11.2014 4 452 470 19 245
5.11.2014 4 471 688 19 218
6.11.2014 4 490 880 19 192
7.11.2014 4 510 045 19 165
8.11.2014 4 529 185 19 139
9.11.2014 4 548 297 19 113
10.11.2014 4 567 384 19 087
11.11.2014 4 586 444 19 060
12.11.2014 4 605 479 19 034
13.11.2014 4 624 487 19 008
14.11.2014 4 643 469 18 982
15.11.2014 4 662 425 18 956
16.11.2014 4 681 355 18 930
17.11.2014 4 700 258 18 904
18.11.2014 4 719 136 18 878
19.11.2014 4 737 988 18 852
20.11.2014 4 756 814 18 826
21.11.2014 4 775 615 18 800
22.11.2014 4 794 389 18 774
23.11.2014 4 813 138 18 749
24.11.2014 4 831 861 18 723
25.11.2014 4 850 558 18 697
26.11.2014 4 869 229 18 672
27.11.2014 4 887 875 18 646
28.11.2014 4 906 496 18 620
29.11.2014 4 925 090 18 595
30.11.2014 4 943 659 18 569
1.12.2014 4 962 203 18 544
2.12.2014 4 980 721 18 518
3.12.2014 4 999 214 18 493
4.12.2014 5 017 681 18 467
5.12.2014 5 036 123 18 442
6.12.2014 5 054 540 18 417
7.12.2014 5 072 932 18 391
8.12.2014 5 091 298 18 366
9.12.2014 5 109 639 18 341
10.12.2014 5 127 954 18 316
11.12.2014 5 146 245 18 291
12.12.2014 5 164 510 18 265
13.12.2014 5 182 751 18 240
14.12.2014 5 200 966 18 215
15.12.2014 5 219 156 18 190
16.12.2014 5 237 322 18 165
17.12.2014 5 255 462 18 140
18.12.2014 5 273 578 18 115
19.12.2014 5 291 668 18 091
20.12.2014 5 309 734 18 066
21.12.2014 5 327 775 18 041
22.12.2014 5 345 791 18 016
23.12.2014 5 363 782 17 991
24.12.2014 5 381 749 17 967
25.12.2014 5 399 691 17 942
26.12.2014 5 417 609 17 917
27.12.2014 5 435 501 17 893
28.12.2014 5 453 370 17 868
29.12.2014 5 471 213 17 844
30.12.2014 5 489 032 17 819
31.12.2014 5 506 827 17 795
1.1.2015 5 524 597 17 770
2.1.2015 5 542 343 17 746
3.1.2015 5 560 065 17 721
4.1.2015 5 577 762 17 697
5.1.2015 5 595 435 17 673
6.1.2015 5 613 083 17 649
7.1.2015 5 630 708 17 624
8.1.2015 5 648 308 17 600
9.1.2015 5 665 884 17 576
10.1.2015 5 683 436 17 552
11.1.2015 5 700 963 17 528
12.1.2015 5 718 467 17 504
13.1.2015 5 735 947 17 480
14.1.2015 5 753 402 17 456
15.1.2015 5 770 834 17 432
16.1.2015 5 788 242 17 408
17.1.2015 5 805 626 17 384
18.1.2015 5 822 985 17 360
19.1.2015 5 840 322 17 336
20.1.2015 5 857 634 17 312
21.1.2015 5 874 922 17 289
22.1.2015 5 892 187 17 265
23.1.2015 5 909 428 17 241
24.1.2015 5 926 646 17 217
25.1.2015 5 943 839 17 194
26.1.2015 5 961 009 17 170
27.1.2015 5 978 156 17 147
28.1.2015 5 995 279 17 123
29.1.2015 6 012 378 17 099
30.1.2015 6 029 454 17 076
31.1.2015 6 046 507 17 053
1.2.2015 6 063 536 17 029
2.2.2015 6 080 542 17 006
3.2.2015 6 097 524 16 982
4.2.2015 6 114 483 16 959
5.2.2015 6 131 419 16 936
6.2.2015 6 148 332 16 913
7.2.2015 6 165 221 16 889
8.2.2015 6 182 087 16 866
9.2.2015 6 198 930 16 843
10.2.2015 6 215 750 16 820
11.2.2015 6 232 547 16 797
12.2.2015 6 249 320 16 774
13.2.2015 6 266 071 16 751
14.2.2015 6 282 798 16 728
15.2.2015 6 299 503 16 705
16.2.2015 6 316 185 16 682
17.2.2015 6 332 844 16 659
18.2.2015 6 349 479 16 636
19.2.2015 6 366 093 16 613
20.2.2015 6 382 683 16 590
21.2.2015 6 399 250 16 567
22.2.2015 6 415 795 16 545
23.2.2015 6 432 317 16 522
24.2.2015 6 448 816 16 499
25.2.2015 6 465 293 16 477
26.2.2015 6 481 747 16 454
27.2.2015 6 498 178 16 431
28.2.2015 6 514 587 16 409
1.3.2015 6 530 974 16 386
2.3.2015 6 547 337 16 364
3.3.2015 6 563 679 16 341
4.3.2015 6 579 998 16 319
5.3.2015 6 596 294 16 296
6.3.2015 6 612 568 16 274
7.3.2015 6 628 820 16 252
8.3.2015 6 645 049 16 229
9.3.2015 6 661 257 16 207
10.3.2015 6 677 442 16 185
11.3.2015 6 693 604 16 163
12.3.2015 6 709 745 16 140
13.3.2015 6 725 863 16 118
14.3.2015 6 741 959 16 096
15.3.2015 6 758 033 16 074
16.3.2015 6 774 085 16 052
17.3.2015 6 790 115 16 030
18.3.2015 6 806 123 16 008
19.3.2015 6 822 109 15 986
20.3.2015 6 838 073 15 964
21.3.2015 6 854 015 15 942
22.3.2015 6 869 935 15 920
23.3.2015 6 885 834 15 898
24.3.2015 6 901 710 15 876
25.3.2015 6 917 565 15 855
26.3.2015 6 933 398 15 833
27.3.2015 6 949 209 15 811
28.3.2015 6 964 998 15 789
29.3.2015 6 980 766 15 768
30.3.2015 6 996 512 15 746
31.3.2015 7 012 237 15 725
1.4.2015 7 027 940 15 703
2.4.2015 7 043 621 15 681
3.4.2015 7 059 281 15 660
4.4.2015 7 074 919 15 638
5.4.2015 7 090 536 15 617
6.4.2015 7 106 131 15 595
7.4.2015 7 121 705 15 574
8.4.2015 7 137 258 15 553
9.4.2015 7 152 789 15 531
10.4.2015 7 168 299 15 510
11.4.2015 7 183 788 15 489
12.4.2015 7 199 255 15 467
13.4.2015 7 214 701 15 446
14.4.2015 7 230 126 15 425
15.4.2015 7 245 530 15 404
16.4.2015 7 260 912 15 383
17.4.2015 7 276 274 15 361
18.4.2015 7 291 614 15 340
19.4.2015 7 306 933 15 319
20.4.2015 7 322 231 15 298
21.4.2015 7 337 508 15 277
22.4.2015 7 352 765 15 256
23.4.2015 7 368 000 15 235
24.4.2015 7 383 214 15 214
25.4.2015 7 398 408 15 193
26.4.2015 7 413 580 15 173
27.4.2015 7 428 732 15 152
28.4.2015 7 443 863 15 131
29.4.2015 7 458 973 15 110
30.4.2015 7 474 063 15 089
1.5.2015 7 489 131 15 069
2.5.2015 7 504 179 15 048
3.5.2015 7 519 207 15 027
4.5.2015 7 534 213 15 007
5.5.2015 7 549 199 14 986
6.5.2015 7 564 165 14 966
7.5.2015 7 579 110 14 945
8.5.2015 7 594 034 14 924
9.5.2015 7 608 938 14 904
10.5.2015 7 623 822 14 883
11.5.2015 7 638 685 14 863
12.5.2015 7 653 527 14 843
13.5.2015 7 668 349 14 822
14.5.2015 7 683 151 14 802
15.5.2015 7 697 933 14 782
16.5.2015 7 712 694 14 761
17.5.2015 7 727 435 14 741
18.5.2015 7 742 156 14 721
19.5.2015 7 756 856 14 701
20.5.2015 7 771 537 14 680
21.5.2015 7 786 197 14 660
22.5.2015 7 800 837 14 640
23.5.2015 7 815 457 14 620
24.5.2015 7 830 057 14 600
25.5.2015 7 844 636 14 580
26.5.2015 7 859 196 14 560
27.5.2015 7 873 736 14 540
28.5.2015 7 888 256 14 520
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30.1.2017 13 899 487 6 253
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3.2.2017 13 924 415 6 219
4.2.2017 13 930 625 6 210
5.2.2017 13 936 827 6 202
6.2.2017 13 943 021 6 193
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14.2.2017 13 992 263 6 126
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1.6.2017 14 601 383 5 288
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28.6.2017 14 741 448 5 095
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1.7.2017 14 756 692 5 074
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24.7.2017 14 871 501 4 917
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28.7.2017 14 891 100 4 890
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30.7.2017 14 900 860 4 876
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1.8.2017 14 910 592 4 863
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3.8.2017 14 920 298 4 849
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6.8.2017 14 934 806 4 830
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9.8.2017 14 949 255 4 810
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3.11.2017 15 339 112 4 274
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5.11.2017 15 347 641 4 262
6.11.2017 15 351 897 4 256
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8.11.2017 15 360 392 4 244
9.11.2017 15 364 630 4 238
10.11.2017 15 368 863 4 233
11.11.2017 15 373 090 4 227
12.11.2017 15 377 311 4 221
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16.11.2017 15 394 137 4 198
17.11.2017 15 398 329 4 192
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20.11.2017 15 410 871 4 175
21.11.2017 15 415 040 4 169
22.11.2017 15 419 203 4 163
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30.11.2017 15 452 305 4 118
1.12.2017 15 456 418 4 112
2.12.2017 15 460 524 4 107
3.12.2017 15 464 625 4 101
4.12.2017 15 468 721 4 095
5.12.2017 15 472 810 4 090
6.12.2017 15 476 894 4 084
7.12.2017 15 480 973 4 078
8.12.2017 15 485 046 4 073
9.12.2017 15 489 113 4 067
10.12.2017 15 493 175 4 062
11.12.2017 15 497 231 4 056
12.12.2017 15 501 281 4 051
13.12.2017 15 505 326 4 045
14.12.2017 15 509 366 4 039
15.12.2017 15 513 400 4 034
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20.12.2017 15 533 486 4 006
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22.12.2017 15 541 482 3 995
23.12.2017 15 545 472 3 990
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30.12.2017 15 573 247 3 952
31.12.2017 15 577 193 3 946

I am a long term supporter of xmr and I see the niche for this currency as well as the quality of development but I have concerns that we can keep pace with inflation in terms of 6-12 months at given prices under certain circumstances.

At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

My first assumption, and this is debatable is that bitcoins network effect and probably the price behaves exponential over the course of time.

My second assumption is that xmr is a far more risky investment than btc, from a) the perspective of network effects and b) the economic circumstances e.g. inflation rate and c) the stage of development. If we compare the inflation rate of xmr to btcs inflation rate we see that the inflation has a factor of 20 compared to btc.

What is unclear to me is if there are strong or even overly strong overlapping effects from bitcoins network effects on xmr. Maybe I completely underestimate xmrs' network effects

My problem at given prices and given assumption is risk/reward ratio for investors given the alternative to hold btc.

I can be horribly wrong with this analysis but that would be good for me Wink

 
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August 22, 2014, 01:53:13 PM
 #232

At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

Litecoin will require at least $20,000,000 in the same time period to remain where it currently is, and that is after having a cap of over a hundred million $.

If Monero starts getting accepted by the community as the default anonymous coin and as second place to Bitcoin, $10,000,000 to sustain the current price is nothing.

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August 22, 2014, 02:02:05 PM
 #233

At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

Litecoin will require at least $20,000,000 in the same time period to remain where it currently is, and that is after having a cap of over a hundred million $.

If Monero starts getting accepted by the community as the default anonymous coin and as second place to Bitcoin, $10,000,000 to sustain the current price is nothing.



litecoin is out of debate (for me it is overvalued crap, which at best solves the function to be an insurance for a 51% attack on btc or something similiar).

it is just the comparison of xmr and btc.
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August 22, 2014, 02:14:11 PM
 #234

At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

Litecoin will require at least $20,000,000 in the same time period to remain where it currently is, and that is after having a cap of over a hundred million $.

If Monero starts getting accepted by the community as the default anonymous coin and as second place to Bitcoin, $10,000,000 to sustain the current price is nothing.



litecoin is out of debate (for me it is overvalued crap, which at best solves the function to be an insurance for a 51% attack on btc or something similiar).

it is just the comparison of xmr and btc.

That makes things more interesting!

Bitcoin requires about $1.8 million per day to sustain its price, If Monero attracted x% of that investment as being the only true alternative to Bitcoin because of its completely different purpose and design, then we could sustain a price of y.

x = 1%, y = 0.0021
x = 5%, y = 0.01

I might have messed up my math {
- sustain bitcoin @ $500 for a year = $650mil
- xmr coins now 2.9 mil - xmr coins in a year 9 mil = 6.1 mil xmr coins.
- get percent of bitcoin investment per year. so 5% = $32mil
- amount @ 5% = $32mil / price of bitcoin @ $500 / amount of XMR coins = y
}

But it seems to work out that if Monero captures 1% of Bitcoin investment, then we are looking at 0.002 which is a disaster, but 5% would be very high at 0.01

I honestly believe that capturing 3% - 5% of the money going into Bitcoin is certainly possible.
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August 22, 2014, 02:17:29 PM
 #235

At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

Oh you of little math & logic! Smiley

What you are saying, essentially, is that in the course of 12 months, Monero the currency, can only accommodate new buyers by $10 million without the price increasing, potentially a lot.

The inflation has been decreasing from the day 1, the adoption has been increasing, and the price is roughly 15 times higher than in the inception, and about 3 times higher than the Cryptonote Exchange era.

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August 22, 2014, 02:44:03 PM
 #236

At given prices (~0.0035) approximately 21000 BTC or at given dollar prices 10 Million $ have to be invested in xmr over the next 12 months to keep the price stable.

Oh you of little math & logic! Smiley


you have to put in the context to the other assumptions Wink


What you are saying, essentially, is that in the course of 12 months, Monero the currency, can only accommodate new buyers by $10 million without the price increasing, potentially a lot.

well glass is half full or half empty - but yes one can see it from this perspective Wink


The inflation has been decreasing from the day 1, the adoption has been increasing, and the price is roughly 15 times higher than in the inception, and about 3 times higher than the Cryptonote Exchange era.


the price development is quite irrelevant, especially from inception. nxt has a price of 3 million times the cap of the inception, obv. there are not as many users compared to the price delopment. given altcoins nature xmrs price devlopment until now is even moderate (which is good)

adoption is what matters - if and really IF this is increasing at a good pace, CONSTANTLY (do you have assumptions how important a constant new influx of users is?) we can take your assumption.

I think the user base is already, compared to other coins quite big. Every rational investors, given inflation design, buys monero as early as possible. For several natural reasons the development of user base is non-constant over time and there is obviously a lot of space for new maybe little less tech savyy user to join us at a later point of time.

I think drawingthesun offered a good mathematical analysis.
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August 22, 2014, 04:25:36 PM
 #237

Since the speculation thread is closed, can we discuss some of it here?

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August 22, 2014, 04:33:55 PM
 #238

Since the speculation thread is closed, can we discuss some of it here?

Oh no. Perhaps you can, but only quality comments please. Smiley

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August 22, 2014, 04:42:55 PM
 #239

Since the speculation thread is closed, can we discuss some of it here?

Oh no. Perhaps you can, but only quality comments please. Smiley

Haha oke! It was not my intention to troll here :p But on topic: strong resistance @ 0.004 zone, need to break that first. I think we will see some panic buying if we break that zone.

EDIT: Aminorex also said that 0.004 was a potential buy zone, because if it would reach there the cup and handle formation would be complete

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August 22, 2014, 06:05:40 PM
 #240

Posted in another topic, also relates to monero:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggB0Wh_g33M&feature=youtu.be&t=24m30s

Antonopoulos about people switch to anonymous currencies if NY regs stick.

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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