[XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread

[rpietila]

Since the speculation thread is closed, can we discuss some of it here?

Oh no. Perhaps you can, but only quality comments please.

Haha oke! It was not my intention to troll here :p But on topic: strong resistance @ 0.004 zone, need to break that first. I think we will see some panic buying if we break that zone.

EDIT: Aminorex also said that 0.004 was a potential buy zone, because if it would reach there the cup and handle formation would be complete

I was also prophetic saying that 0.002-0.004 was the premier buy zone. I think this was in May I said it, correct me if I'm wrong!

[aminorex]

"Blessed is the man who does not walk in the council of the wicked or stand in way of sinners or sit in the seat of mockers" --Psalm 1:1

[vuduchyld]

Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

anyone who deems an altcoin an investment on grounds of its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects is disproportionately likely to have need of a manhattan psychiatrist (and ability to pay).  i may go there myself.  do they still prescribe quaaludes?

For what it's worth, I am a Certified Valuation Analyst (NACVA).  It's not my main line of consulting work, but I do about 10-12 valuations per year as a CVA.

As a sideline venture, I'd be happy to accept XMR for valuation work.  A typical valuation for most small-to-medium sized, privately held businesses would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

I'm most familiar with Fair Marvet Value work in accordance with IRS Revenue Ruling 59-60.  I've done work for:
--valuations for SBA loans (a bit of a specialty)
--valuations related to other bank lending
--gift tax issues
--acquisitions
--estate settlments

Have also done some strategic acquisition work, but if you're looking for somebody to lay down some line of bullshit about why your start-up is worth tens of millions due to some proprietary technology, I'm probably not the guy.  My valuation work is largely by the numbers and I'm happy to support it in any eventuality, but if you end up in court and I have to give deposition or testimony, that's not included in the price.  I'd have to do an hourly charge for it.

Of course, my name and CVA certificate will be all over it, so I'm not sure what the value would be of anonymity, but maybe the discount makes a difference!

[smooth]

would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.

[vuduchyld]

would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.

Oops!  Damn...thanks to the 25% or so price appreciation in the last 3 days!  Holy hell.  I had kicked around a discount rate over the weekend and I figured it should be 10-15%.  But the price has really shot up.

OK...rates TBD, but figure a 15% discount on USD rates.  Better?  I swear, 1000 XMR actually WAS a discount when I got to work this morning!

[binaryFate]

would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.

Oops!  Damn...thanks to the 25% or so price appreciation in the last 3 days!  Holy hell.  I had kicked around a discount rate over the weekend and I figured it should be 10-15%.  But the price has really shot up.

OK...rates TBD, but figure a 15% discount on USD rates.  Better?  I swear, 1000 XMR actually WAS a discount when I got to work this morning!

 

Really nice to see IRL professionals openly accepting XMR. Wish you success with it, you're a pioneer!

[statdude]

Thought I might x-post from Reddit since it is relevant - if you are in NYC you can now pay for psychiatric services with Monero!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2dum4r/i_am_a_new_york_city_psychiatrist_who_accepts/

anyone who deems an altcoin an investment on grounds of its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects is disproportionately likely to have need of a manhattan psychiatrist (and ability to pay).  i may go there myself.  do they still prescribe quaaludes?

quote

Interesting!

How did you fall into that line of business?

[vuduchyld]

Interesting!

How did you fall into that line of business?

If that question was directed to me, I've been doing small business consulting for just over 8 years.  I am the Director for an organization that promotes economic development through entrepreneurship.  It's a partnership between the US Small Business Administration, the Dept of Commerce of the state in which I live, a local university (Research 1, member of AAU) and some other eco devo proponents.

Much of what I do is NOT related to valuation, but still pretty interesting.  My job is to help people start and grow businesses.  Usually starts with Three M's analysis--Management, Market, Money. 

With start-ups, I usually help them compile information and put together a business plan so that they can put their best foot forward to banks/investors.  For existing businesses, I might help them understand markets by looking at things like IBISWorld industry reports, ARCGIS data and tapestry segments, and financial benchmarks (RMA).  I work with people on things like cash flow projections, budgets, marketing plans and such.

Many of our clients are Main Street type businesses--coffee shops, retail, hair salons, plumbers, etc.  But we do get our share of entrepreneurs who can (and do!) scale.  It is often fascinating, usually educational, and generally pretty fun.

The valuation piece is a small but growing part of what I do.  As of about a year ago, the SBA started REQUIRING a certified valuation for any loan that they guarantee if it involves a transfer of assets worth $250K or more.  Of course, seeing this coming, a couple of years ago, I started studying for the CVA.  Valuations can be ridiculously expensive, and this is a real impediment to a business seeking a $250K to $1MM loan.  They can easily pay 1% of the loan value as an up-front cost of getting the loan.  My organization isn't supposed to actively compete with the private sector, but the valuation mills aren't particularly interested in the smaller jobs. 

So I do most valuation work with businesses around $5 million in revenues and less.  If it's in-state, I have to do it through my organization, but I can do solo practitioner work anywhere else.

[statdude]

Sounds like a dream job.
All the fun of M&A, none of the pressure of working in PE/IB.
Plus, the smaller stuff is probably really rewarding.
Are you ever requested for actual broker work (buy/sell businesses)?

[rpietila]

Let's go back to Economics. Monero is approaching a great milestone - ATH marketcap!

At 3.05 million coins, a 0.00433 BTC/XMR daily average is needed to beat the previous high from June

[aminorex]

Let's go back to Economics. Monero is approaching a great milestone - ATH marketcap!

At 3.05 million coins, a 0.00433 BTC/XMR daily average is needed to beat the previous high from June

And this time its not made of froth.  There's real, dense support for it.

[vuduchyld]

would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.

Back to a discount at 1000 XMR.  But not much of one...and not for long, I suspect.  I'd suspect we might get that ATH cap right after Labor Day.  And onward.

[Jungian]

would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.

Back to a discount at 1000 XMR.  But not much of one...and not for long, I suspect.  I'd suspect we might get that ATH cap right after Labor Day.  And onward.

You should maybe use a fixed discount instead. Like XMR equiavalent of 2000$ minus X%

[cAPSLOCK]

would usually end up around $2000.  I'd discount the work significantly, though, and do it for 1000 XMR.

You aren't doing your credibility any good with statements like this.

Back to a discount at 1000 XMR.  But not much of one...and not for long, I suspect.  I'd suspect we might get that ATH cap right after Labor Day.  And onward.

You should maybe use a fixed discount instead. Like XMR equiavalent of 2000$ minus X%

He did...

OK...rates TBD, but figure a 15% discount on USD rates.  Better?  I swear, 1000 XMR actually WAS a discount when I got to work this morning!

[dewdeded]

Right, so Monero is now the replacement of Bitcoin?

And, I heard on the trollbox that XMR will hit $1000 a coin.

If true, Monero will have a market cap greater than bitcoin, however, monero doesn't have any economy.

  confused!

All true. Dont be confused my friend, we are working on starting the economy the next days. (+ a casino is already live)

[aminorex]

Once you accept that currency has value because it is useful, you have to accept the implication that financial transactions have utility as well, because they are necessary, integral, to the operation of the currency, it's growth and efficient discounting.  When we account the GDP of a nation, we do not exclude financial transactions.  No more should financial transactions be excluded from considering the economy of XMR.  Financial transactions are a form of dealing in intellectual property.  Unlike a movie or a book, this intellectual property has productive material use.

The non-financial portion of the XMR economy is growing much more rapidly than did the non-financial portion of the BTC economy.  Often this will not be visible in XMR because transactions are vastly more private, so proxy methods must be used to estimate their scale.  I would very much like a payment gateway which enables me to transparently use XMR, to send to a BTC address, and to receive BTC in the form of XMR.   It's a relatively simply thing to implement, and makes it more practical to save primarily in XMR.

[Skinnkavaj]

The economics of Monero just got a lot stronger now since rpietila is offering CALL and PUT options.
Read more how it works here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=758443.0

[dewdeded]

I would very much like a payment gateway which enables me to transparently use XMR, to send to a BTC address, and to receive BTC in the form of XMR.   It's a relatively simply thing to implement, and makes it more practical to save primarily in XMR.

Implement it. I would run it for the community as stable clearnet service and HS, to support the community/ecology.
(In normal TX limits. I dont have super much BTC or XMR.)

[BldSwtTrs]

Once you accept that currency has value because it is useful, you have to accept the implication that financial transactions have utility as well, because they are necessary, integral, to the operation of the currency, it's growth and efficient discounting.  When we account the GDP of a nation, we do not exclude financial transactions.  No more should financial transactions be excluded from considering the economy of XMR.  Financial transactions are a form of dealing in intellectual property.  Unlike a movie or a book, this intellectual property has productive material use.

The non-financial portion of the XMR economy is growing much more rapidly than did the non-financial portion of the BTC economy.  Often this will not be visible in XMR because transactions are vastly more private, so proxy methods must be used to estimate their scale.  I would very much like a payment gateway which enables me to transparently use XMR, to send to a BTC address, and to receive BTC in the form of XMR.   It's a relatively simply thing to implement, and makes it more practical to save primarily in XMR.

Well, yes we do. Financial transactions are not counted in GDP.

[NewLiberty]

I would very much like a payment gateway which enables me to transparently use XMR, to send to a BTC address, and to receive BTC in the form of XMR.   It's a relatively simply thing to implement, and makes it more practical to save primarily in XMR.

Implement it. I would run it for the community as stable clearnet service and HS, to support the community/ecology.
(In normal TX limits. I dont have super much BTC or XMR.)

This is pretty much just an exchange API, yes?  Are you comfortable with the poloniex pricing used for it?