Febo
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July 23, 2014, 06:34:03 PM |
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I see it as Poloniex tries to keep as much trading of Monero on their exchange as possible. Monero was 60-70% Poloniex volume from time it joined. I agree will not make huge difference. But still is some recognition of the coin.
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Its About Sharing
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Antifragile
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July 23, 2014, 06:42:59 PM |
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I see it as Poloniex tries to keep as much trading of Monero on their exchange as possible. Monero was 60-70% Poloniex volume from time it joined. I agree will not make huge difference. But still is some recognition of the coin.
But it might make a huge difference. If a whale wants to move some coins and another whale wants to buy Monero for a different crypto he is holding, it is off the order book, so to speak. Seems like it can increase liquidity also. And perhaps the anonymous nature of Monero fuels this more. More variables just got added... I say things are getting more interesting.
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BTC = Black Swan. BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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Okurkabinladin
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July 24, 2014, 03:00:57 PM |
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Bitcoin seems to be locked in downtrend, that could last for weeks. That could make Monero extremely attractive as a hedge.
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dewdeded
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July 24, 2014, 06:47:14 PM |
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Subbed.
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kurious
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July 25, 2014, 06:59:23 PM |
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it makes all the difference, a major exchange gave a nice and well deserved vote of confidence to Monero, its a win-win situation since XMR is on the top there for quite some time.
+1 Agreed Polo effectively dumped Litecoin markets for XMR ones - a big bet on Monero. Polo ain't stupid - they want the volume there. LTC has been losing its link to BTC price now, I think it's a smart move for Poloniex and good for Monero. TBH I used my (too high) LTC holdings to buy Monero as in the first place and I can't say I regret it... Good thread, Risto - will keep an eye on it of course.
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我想要火箭和火车
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dewdeded
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July 27, 2014, 10:13:19 AM |
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Litecoin is the "Roman empire" of cryptos. They community really think they stay biggest altcoin forever. Just because of their history and some good numbers (in ratings/scorings) they still have, because the project is so old and once was seen as promising by the general CC scene, before the project failed and became inactive. They think they are "to big to fail". Because obvious ALL altcoins are inferior to LTC, because LTC has this $200.000.000 market cap or 200 more full nodes vs. DogeCoin. Real-life comedy.
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Skinnkavaj
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English Motherfucker do you speak it ?
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July 27, 2014, 05:09:06 PM |
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Litecoin is the "Roman empire" of cryptos. They community really think they stay biggest altcoin forever. Just because of their history and some good numbers (in ratings/scorings) they still have, because the project is so old and once was seen as promising by the general CC scene, before the project failed and became inactive. They think they are "to big to fail". Because obvious ALL altcoins are inferior to LTC, because LTC has this $200.000.000 market cap or 200 more full nodes vs. DogeCoin. Real-life comedy. Litecoin will still be a store of value just like Bitcoin is I am sure. The thing is that people really manipulate the market by writing writing everywhere Litecoin is dead and then it arises from the ashes. Monero can be the third coin no doubt about it.
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smooth
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July 27, 2014, 11:45:16 PM |
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Litecoin is the "Roman empire" of cryptos. They community really think they stay biggest altcoin forever. Just because of their history and some good numbers (in ratings/scorings) they still have, because the project is so old and once was seen as promising by the general CC scene, before the project failed and became inactive. They think they are "to big to fail". Because obvious ALL altcoins are inferior to LTC, because LTC has this $200.000.000 market cap or 200 more full nodes vs. DogeCoin. Real-life comedy. Litecoin will still be a store of value just like Bitcoin is I am sure. The thing is that people really manipulate the market by writing writing everywhere Litecoin is dead and then it arises from the ashes. Monero can be the third coin no doubt about it. Litecoin can be the 3rd coin, Monero will be 2nd, nice sign btw lol I think we are both biased. I don't think Litecoin can really be 3rd. If it loses 2nd it will rapidly drop a lot more. It's main selling point is "alternative to Bitcoin."
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rpietila (OP)
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July 28, 2014, 08:32:12 AM |
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I am in the process of making a treatise on near-term (6 months) Monero economics. Just wanted to tell in advance and bookmark the thread for me.
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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nakaone
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July 28, 2014, 09:47:45 AM |
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especially looking forward to the methodology
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rpietila (OP)
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July 28, 2014, 11:23:37 AM |
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Just to open my thoughts, it would go along these lines..
Now the issuance is about 2.4 million. By 2014-12-31 it will be 5.5 million. This is a 129% increase.
Current number of owners is 8,000 (we need to do a thorough study on this, this one was a midpoint of many methods but not documented).
We need to estimate the potential growth, taking into account new exchanges (Cryptsy, BTC-E, China) and the coming GUI wallet.
Each new owner means on average $X buying pressure. Also many current owners are in the process of accumulating.
On the sell side, the miners sell, but the early making-a-quick-buck-when-it-hits-the-exchange crowd has largely sold according to my sources. When the price goes up, there is intense selling, even shorting (in this context: selling with the intention to buy back) but if the price breaks to the upside, some of the shorts have to buy back, aggravating the rise. When it goes really far, the diversifying pressure starts to materialize. It is not so pronounced yet, because the large holders typically hold much more BTC than XMR and can easily waith until there's a need to rebalance.
The distribution of coins to the owners of different size should theoretically follow power law for the top echelons. Now in my studies, I have found that many claim to have 20-50k coins but nobody seems to have 50k+. Perhaps they are lowplaying. Or perhaps they are too wealthy to participate in the polls. Or perhaps 20-50k just is a sweet spot for other reasons.
When the number of coins goes up 129% and the number of owners probably even more, we can already calculate the distribution of coins to the owners. So we will see how the top 1-3% changes, whether the same amount of coins that was enough to TOP-20 now, will be TOP-30 or TOP-40.
Why am I obsessed with the largest owners? Because they hold most of the coins. The top-0.1% in monero holds 28%, top-1% holds 50% and top-3% holds 62% (numbers taken directly from the definition of power law, so may not be accurate). Also, their collective action determines the value of the coin. If the top holders are in it for the long time, and do not have the intention or willingness to sell, but rather the willingness and means to accumulate, the value will certainly hold and rise.
Monero's backers include large holders of btc, also monero is an actual hedge for btc, which gives it more utility outside of speculation. If one wants to have 10% of his crypto stash in something else than btc for btc's sake, monero is the best candidate due to its technology and liquidity.
Using all these considerations and after crushing numbers, I should be able to forecast the number of owners, the distribution of coins between owners, and also the price level, in the end of December. The Monero devs are helping me with getting the historical data right.
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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Skinnkavaj
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English Motherfucker do you speak it ?
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July 28, 2014, 02:04:02 PM |
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rpietila what I find very interesting about Monero is how much Bitcoin developers really like the CryptoNote concept. Take for example gmaxwell, PeterTodd, wumpus, nanotube etc. Every name I mentioned have spoken well about XMR and currently three of the names are active in #Monero-dev. wumpus is the leader of Bitcoin development team, he took over after Gavin and to my suprise I find him in the Monero dev channel. I find this very interesting, because all of the guys here are really good cryptographers and have been the core bitcoin developers for years.
To see if the names here also particpate in other altcoin channels on freenode, I checked #darkcoin-dev, #darkcoin, #ethereum and #bytecoin and I could not find any of them has such a huge backing by good developers as Monero have. For me as an investor, this give Monero huge credibility.
A question to you rpietila, did any of the above mentioned names influence you in your decision to support Monero? How did you find Monero from the very beginning?
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rpietila (OP)
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July 28, 2014, 05:18:14 PM |
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A question to you rpietila, did any of the above mentioned names influence you in your decision to support Monero? How did you find Monero from the very beginning?
Several people contacted me, and I also found out that the big names were, and are, flocking to Monero (in way greater numbers than in any shitcoins, and in higher numbers than the other 2.0 coins). For me, this is a very important factor when deciding where to invest.
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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binaryFate
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Still wild and free
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July 28, 2014, 07:58:49 PM |
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[...] Using all these considerations and after crushing numbers, I should be able to forecast the number of owners, the distribution of coins between owners, and also the price level, in the end of December. The Monero devs are helping me with getting the historical data right.
Looking forward to this forecast!
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Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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rpietila (OP)
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July 28, 2014, 08:03:56 PM |
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Somebody was asking if there is a table of XMR prices. This is from Poloniex, compiled by myself, disclaimer applies. Day Price ksat 19.5.2014 314 20.5.2014 595 21.5.2014 378 22.5.2014 353 23.5.2014 391 24.5.2014 645 25.5.2014 608 26.5.2014 494 27.5.2014 427 28.5.2014 414 29.5.2014 349 30.5.2014 260 31.5.2014 302 1.6.2014 327 2.6.2014 284 3.6.2014 279 4.6.2014 284 5.6.2014 258 6.6.2014 212 7.6.2014 212 8.6.2014 201 9.6.2014 218 10.6.2014 273 11.6.2014 279 12.6.2014 286 13.6.2014 300 14.6.2014 406 15.6.2014 444 16.6.2014 524 17.6.2014 493 18.6.2014 446 19.6.2014 527 20.6.2014 640 21.6.2014 856 22.6.2014 755 23.6.2014 725 24.6.2014 570 25.6.2014 540 26.6.2014 526 27.6.2014 410 28.6.2014 414 29.6.2014 419 30.6.2014 414 1.7.2014 379 2.7.2014 367 3.7.2014 401 4.7.2014 429 5.7.2014 400 6.7.2014 378 7.7.2014 339 8.7.2014 352 9.7.2014 338 10.7.2014 327 11.7.2014 294 12.7.2014 284 13.7.2014 261 14.7.2014 284 15.7.2014 318 16.7.2014 400 17.7.2014 505 18.7.2014 444 19.7.2014 453 20.7.2014 435 21.7.2014 488 22.7.2014 510 23.7.2014 484 24.7.2014 431 25.7.2014 423 26.7.2014 452 27.7.2014 431
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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smooth
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July 28, 2014, 08:05:47 PM |
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There are older prices archived on the OTC thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=578192.0The chart there combines OTC with the cryptonote exchange that existed for some of that time period. Somebody was asking if there is a table of XMR prices. This is from Poloniex, compiled by myself, disclaimer applies. Day Price ksat 19.5.2014 314 20.5.2014 595 21.5.2014 378 22.5.2014 353 23.5.2014 391 24.5.2014 645 25.5.2014 608 26.5.2014 494 27.5.2014 427 28.5.2014 414 29.5.2014 349 30.5.2014 260 31.5.2014 302 1.6.2014 327 2.6.2014 284 3.6.2014 279 4.6.2014 284 5.6.2014 258 6.6.2014 212 7.6.2014 212 8.6.2014 201 9.6.2014 218 10.6.2014 273 11.6.2014 279 12.6.2014 286 13.6.2014 300 14.6.2014 406 15.6.2014 444 16.6.2014 524 17.6.2014 493 18.6.2014 446 19.6.2014 527 20.6.2014 640 21.6.2014 856 22.6.2014 755 23.6.2014 725 24.6.2014 570 25.6.2014 540 26.6.2014 526 27.6.2014 410 28.6.2014 414 29.6.2014 419 30.6.2014 414 1.7.2014 379 2.7.2014 367 3.7.2014 401 4.7.2014 429 5.7.2014 400 6.7.2014 378 7.7.2014 339 8.7.2014 352 9.7.2014 338 10.7.2014 327 11.7.2014 294 12.7.2014 284 13.7.2014 261 14.7.2014 284 15.7.2014 318 16.7.2014 400 17.7.2014 505 18.7.2014 444 19.7.2014 453 20.7.2014 435 21.7.2014 488 22.7.2014 510 23.7.2014 484 24.7.2014 431 25.7.2014 423 26.7.2014 452 27.7.2014 431
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saddambitcoin
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July 28, 2014, 09:08:36 PM |
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I suspect Monero will test 0.005 this week, a lot of people likely sold expecting another lengthy slow decline. Now the bid sum has gone up 4x since the last rise and the market sentiment is changing. A lot of people dumped in the past week and are looking to buy back in (me too, but i was holding 1000:1 XMR:BTC).
The facts: -Veteran BTC lead devs and BTC whales are interested and active in XMR. -Bitcoin itself is now increasingly focused on non-interesting things - regulation, not innovation. [perhaps fine for attracting bigger investors, but personally i miss the old bitcoin spirit] -Hashrate on Monero continually increasing, Scrypt ASICs will displace a lot of GPU miners and I suppose they will come to XMR if they haven't already.
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Roy Badami
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July 28, 2014, 09:52:57 PM |
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A question to you rpietila, did any of the above mentioned names influence you in your decision to support Monero? How did you find Monero from the very beginning?
Several people contacted me, and I also found out that the big names were, and are, flocking to Monero (in way greater numbers than in any shitcoins, and in higher numbers than the other 2.0 coins). For me, this is a very important factor when deciding where to invest. I'm not sure I'd damn XMR with the '2.0' moniker. AFAICT the '2.0' name is being used to describe the 'platform' coins like Mastercoin and Ethereum whose primary purposes are supposed to be to enable all sorts of other applications, rather than simply to act as currencies. XMR is, fundamentally, simply a coin that tries to be currency (and nothing more than a currency) - albeit the only serious contender in the currency sphere with any interesting technical innovation over BTC. (And for the avoidance of doubt, I'm very wary of the whole 2.0 scene, and the above is not intended in any way to be critical of XMR - quite the contrary!) roy
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nioc
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July 28, 2014, 10:57:02 PM |
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I suspect Monero will test 0.005 this week, a lot of people likely sold expecting another lengthy slow decline. Now the bid sum has gone up 4x since the last rise and the market sentiment is changing. A lot of people dumped in the past week and are looking to buy back in (me too, but i was holding 1000:1 XMR:BTC).
The facts: -Veteran BTC lead devs and BTC whales are interested and active in XMR. -Bitcoin itself is now increasingly focused on non-interesting things - regulation, not innovation. [perhaps fine for attracting bigger investors, but personally i miss the old bitcoin spirit] -Hashrate on Monero continually increasing, Scrypt ASICs will displace a lot of GPU miners and I suppose they will come to XMR if they haven't already.
I basically agree with you. But. On Poloniex where all the action is there is 240 btc bid at 390 which is 36% of the total. 80 btc of it was placed 3 days ago when the price was dropping for 36 hrs and accelerating. It has been relatively stable since, yes that is a short time.
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