BTC broke all major support lines, and the worse is yet to come.

[dodgrad]

It seems as if TA is in valid at this moment.  Crypto is just moving in a direction we all cant understand at the moment.  Hopefully after this bearish season comes the but run

Of course, TA does not work in such situations on the cryptocurrency market. At this moment, the fear has the greatest power and push investors to take decisions. At the moment the least experienced players lose the most. When "weak hends" sell everything - prices will start to grow.

[CASTIEL05]

A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend as well as horizontal support support of 5800$-6100$. the bulls defended that area for from the beginning of the dip on Feb, the long positions on that area were always big enough to bring price up as soon as it mingles around those prices.

this time however, it's pretty different. price went pass them like they were nothing. the area from  5800 to 6100 is has now formed a very strong resistance levels that do not seem to be broken before making a considerable low.

I do believe there could be one more bull-trap before we head down. but most likely nothing major.

The next support would be 4900 which happens to be both trend line as well as a horizntal support formed on Aug 2017 " previews resistance". yet i would not count on that to be a kick start for a new bull run. price will surely bounch back from there only for correction.

breaking lower the 4900 will easily take us to 2900-3100 which is a strong support formed on Sep 2017 from a previous resistance formed on June 2017, what's more interesting that price meets the concept of "history repeating it self" which is about 85% drop from ATH that started in late 2013.

this is the most likely scenario that i expect now, however the hardest part would be the timing. if history is to repeat itself then we will remain a bear market till around Sep 2019 before the next bull run starts.

-------------------------

From a fundamental point of view. recently Crypto has not made anything noticeable that could make it attracting enough to be 2-3 Trillion market.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.

we will need couple more months to clear out the path for the true vision of crypto for preparation of mass adoption. as with this situation,prices are as best as they get.


no fud here, just trying to point out the facts. i want nothing more than BTC going to 1 million over night. but this is just not happening.

being realistic can save you from future coming events that may break your heart.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24/11/2018  9:55 pm (GMT)
UPDATE : BTC is down about 30% from the time I posted this, some moon boys probably did not like what i said, some said TA is B.S . but if even 1 person took my analysis seriously and benefited from this i am glad enough.

currently btc is trading at  3940$ on binance .

we will see some relief from here, but most likely only a bear flag that will only bring another dip.

my strategy is to buy into this market slowly as the bull run could happen any time, but major buys will be around 2900-3100$ .  i might increase my buying postion at 3500$ area if i see some good price action.


as i mentioned in one of the comments, the only way for BTC to really be in a bull market is with a daily close above 7500$ with some huge volume, aside from that any surge is nothing but a good chance to short.

In the chart showing above, I think bitcoin will continuously going down also. If the next support line will break, I assume that there is a tremendous decrease in the price of bitcoin. Due to the current situation of the market, I avoid to buy cryptocurrencies. I don't know where and when I will start again but for now, I just want to be silent in trading.

[potivech]

I see a lot of people supporting the 3k area, and I have a feeling that 3k will eventually break and we will see a short flash crash (true capitulation). No idea where that ultimate bottom will be though.

[BitHodler]

I see a lot of people supporting the 3k area, and I have a feeling that 3k will eventually break and we will see a short flash crash (true capitulation). No idea where that ultimate bottom will be though.

People are generally wrong when it comes to crypto. If enough of them believe something will happen, it likely won't, and let $3000 be exactly what people aim for. It will either drop well below that mark, or bottom out well above it.

The latter is somewhat of a fact with how the price briefly dipped under $3500 today, and it's now waiting for support around $4000 to hold firm. Without a whale unloading thousands of coins at once it's doable.

It requires one spark to get people to fomo in, and when they start to believe the bottom is in, believe me, they will fomo in. I can't say how sustainable that growth will be, but at least it's a major contributor to a more positive sentiment.

People, regardless of how much risk they exposed themselves to, are going through a horrible time right now. I hope it will end soon.

[mikeywith]

I see a lot of people supporting the 3k area, and I have a feeling that 3k will eventually break and we will see a short flash crash (true capitulation). No idea where that ultimate bottom will be though.

If enough of them believe something will happen, it likely won't, and let $3000 be exactly what people aim for. It will either drop well below that mark, or bottom out well above it.

couldn't agree more, finding a perfect bottom is usually impossible, that is why you need to buy close to where you think that is. if you sold the break out of the triangle, then you are already in profit, and the best thing to do as i said a few times before , is to buy in portions. that 3000$ might not be the bottom, it could be 2500$ or 3500$ for that matter. 

[CryptoF007]

I see some very smart answers in here... congrats on that!
What we forget too many times is that of course the best is to buy absolute low and sell absolute high, but this will probably never happen, so there is big chunk in between where real money is made. So yes we are currently getting into low levels, nobody knows where bottom will be, but buying at prices 3 - 4k$ seems very reasonable for a longer term. Spare something in case we go below 3000, it doesn't have to be much, just something to feel better when you buy at 2000

So whoever is buying at the moment he is doing at least something right : He recognised major cycles well, as we are close to bottom. And this is, afterall, the most important!

[Crypto_Samuel]

For me the current situations looks like a good time to buy. We are risking, it's trading, it's crypto market, everything is uncertain and volatile. Sure, BTC could resume its falls. Momentum remains to the downside, despite the recovery. But we aren't focusing on the coming few weeks only, right? As a theoty, whales that have accumulated Bitcoin outside the exchanges are dumping it on the market to trigger a broader sell and to push prices down. And after prices dropped sharply, they will accumulate some more and eventually push prices higher. So, summing up, no panic selling for me. I'm holding what I have and planning to buy more.

[Roukawa]

This is what I've scared of. When bitcoin will fall down, I assume it will recover but I do not when it could be. There is no momentum for cryptocurrency as of now and we are all waiting for a news that will make the market green. Leaving cryptocurrency is such a fool decision, we must be positive no matter what happens.

[mikeywith]

Today it broke 4000$ , now struggling to rise above it but I don't think it can , next support is around 3800$ , Let's hope it doesn't break that or it would go to 3000$ , it all happened in one week from 6300$ to 3800$ , hows that possible?!

the bears are losing moment, a bullish divergence is starting to show on the charts, but the volume is still low, and I do not think this is the beginning for the rally but rather a correction, i will be looking for  short signals. i could be wrong that's one thing for sure, but what it makes more sense to short the market now,at this point we will see many bull traps, a good 5-15% increase , people start thinking this is it, they go all in ,  and get liquidated.

unless you are buying for the long term, then it's stupid to long now. but if you are just trying to hunt for bottom then it makes sence to buy every dip with small positions, so that your average buying price will be reasonable.but if you are a day trader, then you will be set for bull traps, the low 4k will most likely be the new resistance for now, hard to break to the up side, of course when i say break i mean at least a 4hr candle close and not a 1 or 5 mins candles.

but overall , the bulls are coming back, i do think the 3500 support is starting to become strong but it might not sustain, am still looking for 2.9-3.1k . but i will buy again at 3.4k to 3.6k if the i see similar rejection to the last one.

so the low 4k area did really become resistance, and we did bounce from there, i shorted at 4100 and am closing my position now at 3792.

the bulls started to show some strength, the 3500-3700 will become a strong support. since the fall no level held the price like this, so it's making me a bit worried about shorting atm. following Binance chart any close 4 hr close below 3700 will be a good short signal.

[astridwi]

the worse has begun to come, the price has gone down some days to reach $ 3800, I think there will be a lot of investors going away because they have been waiting to start at the beginning of the year when prices continue to decline slowly and now they are falling far. this is not good for all and hopefully the market will improve soon and crypto has its glory again as soon as possible

[mikeywith]

the worse has begun to come, the price has gone down some days to reach $ 3800, I think there will be a lot of investors going away because they have been waiting to start at the beginning of the year when prices continue to decline slowly and now they are falling far. this is not good for all and hopefully the market will improve soon and crypto has its glory again as soon as possible

To be successful you should not think like the average person, for the average person BTC is done, and it is never going to 20k again, the smart investors have been looking for cheap crypto since last year. i am almost certain that we are pretty close to the bottom, so unless you are a day trader, then this is pretty much the wrong time to sell, most people bought btc for 8-10-15k and they are selling it now to cut loss! it's very stupid that they have waited this long and giving up now.

what I am worried about is a few months of side-ways market where price would be ranging from 2-6k for months if not years before the bull run starts, more people will fold , but those who hang in there are going to get the reward.

this is not a financial advice by any means, but buying btc from 2 to 4k is something you will never regret in 3 years from now.

[sinkfish]

the worse has begun to come, the price has gone down some days to reach $ 3800, I think there will be a lot of investors going away because they have been waiting to start at the beginning of the year when prices continue to decline slowly and now they are falling far. this is not good for all and hopefully the market will improve soon and crypto has its glory again as soon as possible

To be successful you should not think like the average person, for the average person BTC is done, and it is never going to 20k again, the smart investors have been looking for cheap crypto since last year. i am almost certain that we are pretty close to the bottom, so unless you are a day trader, then this is pretty much the wrong time to sell, most people bought btc for 8-10-15k and they are selling it now to cut loss! it's very stupid that they have waited this long and giving up now.

what I am worried about is a few months of side-ways market where price would be ranging from 2-6k for months if not years before the bull run starts, more people will fold , but those who hang in there are going to get the reward.

this is not a financial advice by any means, but buying btc from 2 to 4k is something you will never regret in 3 years from now.

seconded. the moment i saw bitcoin floating on $6k-$7k, i start to plan to accumulate more. now drop another 3k. it is like on black friday sales. its good to shake off weak hands, end of 2017 do alot of damage to the market. panic sell now is not a smart move.

[Rebisco]

The chart of the bitcoin is becoming good again, the price of the bitcoin reached $4000 per each again. There are now major support lines that can ensure that the bitcoin will not fall under $4000 per each again.

[Huskarls]

The demand is not there and it seems like there is an over-supply of the coins. The situation will only improve if the big players resume their purchases. And that looks unlikely for the next 1-2 years.

Miner is also in this condition, in a very big loss position. All players seem to start having to think twice about entry, given that the recent events have taken place quite to the surprise of many. However, this condition is sure that it only applies temporarily

[mikeywith]

The chart of the bitcoin is becoming good again, the price of the bitcoin reached $4000 per each again. There are now major support lines that can ensure that the bitcoin will not fall under $4000 per each again.

i have to disagree, the chart of bitcoin still look very bearish. i am not giving you any exact entries what so ever, but i suggest you be careful and do not fomo.

as for the support lines , the strongest support BTC had by far is the 5800-6200 area, that was the only support one could bet on, held well for the whole year, the 4k support is nothing, we could pass through it like a hot knife through butter. the only support before 2700-3100$ is the recent low of 3600$.

should we continue to go up (unlikely) the 5800 will be the strongest resistance ever, you will be surprised about the selling pressure coming on the way.

[coinfinger]

A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend

Doesn't the fact that bitcoin went below these "support lines" argue against the validity of using TA to trade?  I'm a long-time skeptic of technical analysis, and this just shows me that the market does what it wants with no regard to these fancy voodoo TA techniques and terms.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.

You got that right, although I'd argue that "the world" is hardly even aware that there are any cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin.  It's a very small population of people who are even aware of these shitcoins, ICO scams, and now this hash war thing.  Shitcoins are destined to crash to zero--or at least most of them are, and I don't need TA to verify that for me.  One of these days people are going to wake up and realize that no merchant is ever going to accept them and there's no practical use for them, not even as a store of value because of the extreme volatility.

And what you just said is basically the mistake a lot of people tend to make with TA. The fact that TA is there does not mean it is going to tell you exactly what will happen, it is there to guide you and nothing else which is why there would not be a TA without a stop loss. TA is not some voodoo shit that will predict the future for you and until people started realizing that before they will understand better.

Anyone who thinks TA is bullshit, should attempt trading the market without the understanding of the market. At least, this makes it simple, as the market has broken a major support, then you look for the price action in the next support, while shorting the market at that point. Plain simple!

[PizzaBTC]

For me the current situations looks like a good time to buy. We are risking, it's trading, it's crypto market, everything is uncertain and volatile. Sure, BTC could resume its falls. Momentum remains to the downside, despite the recovery. But we aren't focusing on the coming few weeks only, right? As a theoty, whales that have accumulated Bitcoin outside the exchanges are dumping it on the market to trigger a broader sell and to push prices down. And after prices dropped sharply, they will accumulate some more and eventually push prices higher. So, summing up, no panic selling for me. I'm holding what I have and planning to buy more.

It is most definitely a very good time to buy; there is no doubt about that. One thing I am sure of is that we have a market that is growing daily and is giving a chance to everyone to not have a chance to be a part of it.

It is just very unfortunate that instead of some people to be seeing the good side to getting into the market now, they are busy seeing the things they should not be seeing which is making them all panicky and then missing out on great opportunities like we are having now. The worse may be yet to come, but rather than approaching FUD as a problem, it is always better to approach it as an opportunity.

[mikeywith]

For me the current situations looks like a good time to buy. We are risking, it's trading, it's crypto market, everything is uncertain and volatile. Sure, BTC could resume its falls. Momentum remains to the downside, despite the recovery. But we aren't focusing on the coming few weeks only, right? As a theoty, whales that have accumulated Bitcoin outside the exchanges are dumping it on the market to trigger a broader sell and to push prices down. And after prices dropped sharply, they will accumulate some more and eventually push prices higher. So, summing up, no panic selling for me. I'm holding what I have and planning to buy more.

It is most definitely a very good time to buy; there is no doubt about that. One thing I am sure of is that we have a market that is growing daily and is giving a chance to everyone to not have a chance to be a part of it.

It is just very unfortunate that instead of some people to be seeing the good side to getting into the market now, they are busy seeing the things they should not be seeing which is making them all panicky and then missing out on great opportunities like we are having now. The worse may be yet to come, but rather than approaching FUD as a problem, it is always better to approach it as an opportunity.

 opportunity ? FUD ? huh ! what are you talking about. i am not satoshi and bitcoin is not my wife. I want to make $$ . i don't know why are you into crypto if not for that ! . when i said the worst is yet to come and sold all of my btc the price was about 5.7k , it went like 37% down. if i wana buy all in right now, it means i am getting 25% discount. should the price go to back to 5.7k again " the time i started the FUD' i would have at least 36% more btc. if i catch another low, i get even more BTC.

there is no FUD here,i am just an average dude and most people who read my shit are average folks with tiny to no impact on the market, i will always SELL btc whenever the chance is there, i could care less where is it going to the next month or year, my target is to get as many BTC as i can before the bull run begins. cheers

[acarli]

Did you see the volume today? It was 6.5 billion! That's almost 10% of overall market cap. Is that a signal in TA?

[mikeywith]

Did you see the volume today? It was 6.5 billion! That's almost 10% of overall market cap. Is that a signal in TA?

High volume with no significant increase in price is usually a sign for reversal, and still i do not really give volume that much of a thought, i use plain support / resistance and price action