Why was $13,800 unsustainable?

[cocoadreamboy]

Great analysis, I see no reason why shouldn't we visit 9.5k , looking at it from a different point of view using the





using only the 5 week moving average, notice how we always tend to correct all the way down to that MA , this time we were a bit too far and it only makes sense that we head back to where it is 9.5k - 10k  before taking off again.

as long as we are above the 5MA on the weekly, the moment should be fast to the upside , if we do close below the 5 week MA then we could correct all the way back to 8k.

overall, we are officially in an up trend, looking for good entry points is going to be more beneficial than trying to short the peaks, i expect many bear traps to come.

This is fundamental analysis not Technical analysis. Technical analysis is worthless in these situations. you can find actual analysis and data here on my site:

https://www.amsinger.org

Please do not troll with more nonsense technical analysis promoting what you want people to do with no data or awareness.

Thank you paid troll,

Aaron

P.S. Why else would someone spend the time to add this to a logic thread? lol

[cocoadreamboy]

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies.

So you say, but my guess is that you aren't privy to complete information about the markets and what the miners are actually doing.  Unless you're a serious insider-bigwig (and you may well be, who knows), there's an awful lot of guesswork involved when trying to figure out how to play the crypto market. 

Bitcoin basically comes down to supply and demand, unlike the stock market where business factors have a huge influence on a stock's price.  But in that supply and demand there are myriad factors dictating demand--and to a lesser extent, supply.  I've always thought of it as an enormous multivariable calculus problem that keeps changing.  So your claims to use logic and numbers are laudable, I'm skeptical as to how much they can really help you as a trader.  But I could be completely ignorant and wrong.

As to the question posed in the title:  $13k wasn't sustainable because the price curve was way too steep.  Too much money poured in, too much speculation happened, and too much selling went on after bitcoin hit that mark.  The only way bitcoin is going to stick around at $13k or above is if the price/time slope is a lot more shallow.  The bitcoin market doesn't tolerate spikes very well, as you may have noticed. 

But hey, at least it didn't crash back down to $3000.  I'm totally cool with $11,350 (which is where it stands as I type this).

The only thing that is necessary is time to return the price back to logical levels. You seem to focus entirely on the price of the coin vs looking at the reasons for the price of the coin. 13k required WAAAY too much continuous investment to maintain. Even a dumb person with my data could of seen that. @ 11,350 the bitcoin market will need $20.43 million per day to maintain good luck with that lol

Why would one promote this type of thinking? What makes sense to me is whoever manipulated the price upwards needs more liquidity. Without promoting fantasies about bitcoin they won't be able to make all the money they need to make.

If you want to see real data May's data is free on my site:

https://www.amsinger.org

Please check it out it is very important to understand how much your risk is,

Aaron

[WinslowIII]

"Thank you paid troll"

I'd rather be a paid troll (which I'm not) than a drooling, knuckle dragging, mouth breathing inbred like you.
$20.43 million per day to maintain what price again? where the everloving fuck did you get this moronic formula from?
Deep inside your ass is the answer.

[cocoadreamboy]

"Thank you paid troll"

I'd rather be a paid troll (which I'm not) than a drooling, knuckle dragging, mouth breathing inbred like you.
$20.43 million per day to maintain what price again? where the everloving fuck did you get this moronic formula from?
Deep inside your ass is the answer.

Thank you for your abusive and vulgar cuss words and insults. It is very professional. You seem very professional.

Thank you paid troll.

[gentlemand]

@ 11,350 the bitcoin market will need $20.43 million per day to maintain good luck with that lol

I've seen this thinking a million times over. It's pitiful to witness the lack of numerical and scale comprehension. It's a bigger number than your bank account. Guess what, the world is a big place with a big number of people too.

Divided by all the countries in the world that is $100,000 per country per day.

Hold me.

Grayscale, one company, alone is supposedly buying 20% of mined coins per month.

As for the original question $13,800 was a price reached in no time at all. It stands to reason it'll disappear in no time at all as well. There was no epic struggle to reach it. No support was built around it.

[Naida_BR]

The miners create 1800 bitcoin/ day, which means, with simple supply and demand, bitcoin will need ~$23.4 million of new investment/day just to buy the new bitcoin that is being created (not to mention holders selling new highs) to maintain that price.

I am not a miner and i am not a professional analyst, but is it possible that all miners sell their 1800 bitcoin a day? and why would all the miners sell their 1800 bitcoins a day? and about "holders". why would they sell their bitcoins? because I suppose that many of them are willing to hold for many more years

Agreed. That is why I blame Tom Lee. He told everyone in the beginning of this year that bitcoin's fair value is $14k. He is scamming with everyone. $14k is his target to dump hehehehe. He tricked us!

And consider that there are a lot of people who will exit the market from 14k levels and above till 19-20k.
They will be in fear that this will be the top and they will keep selling every time the price rises.
In my opinion, from this levels and higher we will find difficulties in raising the price. Maybe it is time for alts to gain value.

[LimLims]

my friend you have to accept that you are new to bitcoin and have very little understanding of its market movement. so instead of trying to sell your false guesses in form of market analysis to newbies who don't know better you are better off doing something else to make money. that way you wouldn't be the cause of some newbies losing money either.

Well said mate.
I am agree with you.
You need to understand how does the price affects.
The Price of Bitcoin increases or decreases,  if the marketcap of the coin increases.
So when the trading volume increases,  the price increases and when the trading volume decreases,  it decreases.
Hope now you will be cleared about your 13k usd thing.
Good luck mate.

[cocoadreamboy]

@ 11,350 the bitcoin market will need $20.43 million per day to maintain good luck with that lol

I've seen this thinking a million times over. It's pitiful to witness the lack of numerical and scale comprehension. It's a bigger number than your bank account. Guess what, the world is a big place with a big number of people too.

Divided by all the countries in the world that is $100,000 per country per day.

Hold me.

Grayscale, one company, alone is supposedly buying 20% of mined coins per month.

As for the original question $13,800 was a price reached in no time at all. It stands to reason it'll disappear in no time at all as well. There was no epic struggle to reach it. No support was built around it.

That would be $20.43 million/day with not a single cent out every day. No one taking profit, No one selling. Very unsustainable.

The massive price jump is market price manipulation plain and simple. You can't easily manipulate the market for long periods of time, that takes very large pockets and also a reason to spend that much money. It is very simple to buy up an order book in 10 minutes and shove the price up, if you have the cash.

Really every county is going to spend $100,000 per day on bitcoin? So people in the Congo are going to keep shoving money into bitcoin? They can't buy food, but they will keep supporting an insane price on bitcoin lol great logic.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org

[cocoadreamboy]

And consider that there are a lot of people who will exit the market from 14k levels and above till 19-20k.
They will be in fear that this will be the top and they will keep selling every time the price rises.
In my opinion, from this levels and higher we will find difficulties in raising the price. Maybe it is time for alts to gain value.

This is the first logical statement in a while. Many of the alts are also overvalued, but there is one that demonstrates good creation cost and value to purchase.

My clients know which of the alts demonstrates good value because the data and the numbers do not lie or have an agenda.

Thank you it is nice to hear from a non heated person,

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

my friend you have to accept that you are new to bitcoin and have very little understanding of its market movement. so instead of trying to sell your false guesses in form of market analysis to newbies who don't know better you are better off doing something else to make money. that way you wouldn't be the cause of some newbies losing money either.

Well said mate.
I am agree with you.
You need to understand how does the price affects.
The Price of Bitcoin increases or decreases,  if the marketcap of the coin increases.
So when the trading volume increases,  the price increases and when the trading volume decreases,  it decreases.
Hope now you will be cleared about your 13k usd thing.
Good luck mate.

I need to understand "how does the price affects."... very good English.

Volume numbers are massively inflated, bitcoin is actually a much smaller market than people think. Here is an article that outlines many of the ways the volumes are inflated and truly false:

https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearca-2019-01/srnysearca201901-5164833-183434.pdf

It is a rather large sec memorandum, but it uses intelligent methods of finding the false volume.

It is laughable to think that BCH gets halve its market cap traded EVERY day.

Aaron

[gentlemand]

[

That would be $20.43 million/day with not a single cent out every day. No one taking profit, No one selling. Very unsustainable.

The massive price jump is market price manipulation plain and simple. You can't easily manipulate the market for long periods of time, that takes very large pockets and also a reason to spend that much money. It is very simple to buy up an order book in 10 minutes and shove the price up, if you have the cash.

Really every county is going to spend $100,000 per day on bitcoin? So people in the Congo are going to keep shoving money into bitcoin? They can't buy food, but they will keep supporting an insane price on bitcoin lol great logic.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org

People always fixate on the mined coins. They don't seem to recall there's 17 million more that could be sold any moment.

Best of luck with your future endeavours, youngling. Don't go betting the farm without some development of the perspective end of things.

[cocoadreamboy]

People always fixate on the mined coins. They don't seem to recall there's 17 million more that could be sold any moment.

Best of luck with your future endeavours, youngling. Don't go betting the farm without some development of the perspective end of things.

Thank you for your advice, but I measure my risk in all my investments. I do not gamble. I invest.

You seem to be back tracking on your previous statement saying this price will be supported. There are 1800 new coins mined/ day as well as the 17 million already in existence. Wouldn't that prove my point of this price being unsustainable even more?

Thank you, I will continue to monitor my risk and keep my investments in order.

I hope you do too,

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org

[Boh manok]

The reason for sure to know bictoin has been stopped while no one knows, but I'm sure if bitcoin will crawl back up at the beginning of next week, maybe bitcoin is taking a step to make a very good move going forward

[cocoadreamboy]

The reason for sure to know bictoin has been stopped while no one knows, but I'm sure if bitcoin will crawl back up at the beginning of next week, maybe bitcoin is taking a step to make a very good move going forward

This is a thread that is trying to avoid the wishes and dreams of many of the other threads. I am saying it is dubious to think that bitcoin will remain this high ($13.8k-$10k) for very long due to the nature of supply and demand as it relates to price.

I am trying to get people to see bitcoin as a financial tool not as a mystical being. Once you treat it as a financial tool you are able to profit from the FOMO and market manipulation consistently and clearly.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org

[iMark]

The reason for sure to know bictoin has been stopped while no one knows, but I'm sure if bitcoin will crawl back up at the beginning of next week, maybe bitcoin is taking a step to make a very good move going forward

Bullish does not mean the price cannot collapse and down, sometimes the price will be corrected because of the high supply, many users will secure profits because of high prices, but after that the price increase will continue, don't be surprised by that, this condition is very reasonable

[cocoadreamboy]

The reason for sure to know bictoin has been stopped while no one knows, but I'm sure if bitcoin will crawl back up at the beginning of next week, maybe bitcoin is taking a step to make a very good move going forward

Bullish does not mean the price cannot collapse and down, sometimes the price will be corrected because of the high supply, many users will secure profits because of high prices, but after that the price increase will continue, don't be surprised by that, this condition is very reasonable

You are basing none of your analysis on data or numbers, just opinion and wishes.

I really hope you don't actually invest money into the things you talk about. It is irresponsible of you to say this on this thread.

Aaron

Real data please.

[exstasie]

Maybe the OP's "clients" will be able to break even and get their coins back after all. Measured move off .618 to a confluence of trend and horizontal support. It would keep the parabolic advance comfortably intact, with time left for another leg up before the Litecoin halving in August. This would be such an awesome setup:

Here is an update on this chart with adjusted levels. It's playing out well so far. We bounced strongly off the .618 and are threatening to swing back to yesterday's lows:



Having said that, I am not super confident this projection will play out to completion. I'd say there is ~40% chance. If not, we'll probably slosh around in a sideways range for a couple days before swinging back up to the highs.

The short vs. long trends on Bitfinex are troubling for anyone expecting downside. Shorts are already at inflated levels and they only continued to rise during this correction. Longs continue to fall. This dynamic might limit the downside.

[Wilhelm]

Lol if $20 is breaking ya, you are small fry.

If you need 20$ for your advises it means that you are not good enough to earn from speculating on Bitcoin, so your advises are basically worthless.

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies.

I also used logic in what I wrote above. Can you beat that?

But did you use NUMBERS? 🤣

[Pursuer]

The short vs. long trends on Bitfinex are troubling for anyone expecting downside. Shorts are already at inflated levels and they only continued to rise during this correction. Longs continue to fall. This dynamic might limit the downside.

I just want to point out that these shorts only prove that there still are a lot of people who are stuck in the mentality of 2018 and the bear market thinking it should not be over even though it has been over for months. and lets not forget that all this time that we were rising, each time price went up and slowed down, the number of shorts skyrocketed because of exactly what I said above. but price still continued going upwards.
for example recently someone was arguing that having this many shorts means we won't go above $10k and it shows a big drop coming, then we shot above $10k and it didn't even stop there!

[cocoadreamboy]

Here is an update on this chart with adjusted levels. It's playing out well so far. We bounced strongly off the .618 and are threatening to swing back to yesterday's lows:

Having said that, I am not super confident this projection will play out to completion. I'd say there is ~40% chance. If not, we'll probably slosh around in a sideways range for a couple days before swinging back up to the highs.

The short vs. long trends on Bitfinex are troubling for anyone expecting downside. Shorts are already at inflated levels and they only continued to rise during this correction. Longs continue to fall. This dynamic might limit the downside.

Please stop putting your nonsense charts on here. That is not the point of this thread. If you want to spread your charts please make your own thread.

I am attempting to help people use logic and financial know how to understand bitcoin. Your Trend analysis does not help at all in that regard. You clearly have no idea about the true nature of the market.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org