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What is the current chip count for refund, and has JohnK/ragingazn made any statements about it? (i.e. 51% to refund)
For reasons unrelated to economics/ROI, and should be obvious for anyone who's been paying even remote attention to this buy, I'm starting to learn towards refund. Counter-party risk and all that
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You know, you can just admit "You are right, there are no BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVES" to <BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVE>
You don't get have to get butthurt and defensive and say "B-BUT EVERY OTHER INVESTMENT EVER!"
THIS JUST IN! People who bought Tesla stock instead of BFL made more money than people who bought BFL stop the fucking presses!!!!
I already said, if you're myopically only capable of focusing on bitcoin mining, you're going to have a bad time. There are PLENTY of mining equipment alternatives. The fact that they might all end up sucking too isn't a good reason to ride this one to the bottom, when the writing is on the wall. Once again, if you're unwilling to abandon a ship that's going down, because the lifeboat isn't headed directly to another cruise ship, then I feel bad for you, son. I'm guessing bitcoin mining is your first attempt at making money work for you, instead of the other way around. I see a bumpy ride in your future... Sometimes the best "Investment" is to stop your losses by pulling out, and then reevaluate when you're not being driven by emotion and stress. The sunk cost fallacy is a powerful one though, and if you're a n00b to the money game, it's a lesson some people will just have to learn the hard way... You do realize that the "refund" is a guaranteed 50% loss, right? PCB assembly costs were higher than the chips. break even ROI is 50%, not 100%. -- And this is the Group buys subfourm, of the hardware subforum, of the mining subforum, of the bitcoin forum, on a website dedicated to bitcoins. The scope of discussions here is, in theory, limited to custom hardware for mining bitcoins and directly related topics. There are many, many investments that paid back more than any given bitcoin mining investment. To start including these in every single discussion, comparison and thread about bitcoin mining would be absurd. It would become "Economics and Investing : General" and quickly "Offtopic general". The issue at hand is that Avalon chips had by far the most margin between "Best Case Scenario" and "Cannot even break even". Best case was absurd, on the order of 1000% ROI. all the other alternatives? "Best case scenario" is maybe 200% ROI or similar. So what happens when something goes wrong for THEM? I would argue there does not appear to be an investment in mining hardware with enough possible reward to be worth the risk -- in this regard, you're right, it probably makes sense to not buy anything and get out of the game. But the way people calculate hashing rate projections (exponential growth that never ends, as opposed to a sigmoid function which is approaching its inflection point) is fundamentally wrong and flawed, and the fact that you already have a 50% loss for assembly costs means that your break even is lower. Admittedly it looks very dim as it increases, but people need to run calculations for the tail end of the curve, where you WILL be beating electricity costs, but the rate it makes money will also be very low. All of this notwithstanding a raise or fall in $/BTC, which affects all profit on all hardware equally. |
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76%/month is not possible to sustain. the absolute MAX is 6-7 petahash/sec at the end of the year https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820What difficulty is that.. ~1 billion at the end of 2013 diff 2 billion at the end of 2014 diff. Hash rate will be a sigmoid curve. it's not exponential except for a short window. I have not found a calculator that correctly does this, all do an exponential curve. Let me try a few things 1 Million diff / 2 million diff still exceed electricity costs. It's extremely doubtful any ASIC will ever fall below electricity cost unless BTC/$ plummets. the $/hash is simply too massive, especially for anyone who doesn't directly buy chips from the fab themselves. Not possible to sustain, for HOW long? If your chips showed up assembled and hashing TODAY, you might break even and make a little money, but we're WELL past the anticipated delivery time with ZERO progress since the order date. What makes you think that the chips will deliver any time soon? You guys are clinging to a false hope at this point. As others have pointed out and demonstrated, either way we're going to take a loss. You can either take a loss that also involved giving the assholes who screwed us a ton of money, and just bending over for them, or you can take the option of telling companies that this won't be tolerated, and work on finding another viable investment. Honestly, anybody who chooses option A is a fool, and Yifu's bitch. *WHAT* OTHER VIABLE INVESTMENT? there is NOT A SINGLE ONE THAT LOOKS ANYWHERE NEAR AS GOOD AS THIS ONE FUCKING DID. BEST CASE ROI WAS UNDER A MONTH Obviously that was super-optimistic, but that was best case. Expected case was supposed to be a few months for ROI. Now it's never? Run the numbers of anything else, your BEST CASE ROI is on the order of half a year, what happens when THAT gets fucked over? Do you think you won't get screwed over by another company, group, or person? You run the numbers on a "refund", and stop doing shitty wrong calculations with never-ending hashrates being added (again, it's a fucking sigma curve not an exponential, all hardware is paid for. Do you see people spending money on new hardware anymore?) Something like 50,000,000$ was sent to BFL Then 8,000,000$ was sent to Avalon chips. The guys coming in later? Less than that. The money invested is an inverse-sigmoid curve. The hashrate is a sigmoid curve I'm not your investment advisor, or your broker. Figure it out yourself. If you're going to myopically focus ONLY on bitcoin mining equipment as be the only "viable investment" then I'm afraid you're in for a rough ride, friend. Some people have enough sense to be able to spot other viable investments, even if they don't look identical to what YOU apparently consider to be the only definition of a viable investment. Putting it in a low-yield savings account, or spending it on hookers and blow would be more viable investments than this is, at this point.  You know, you can just admit "You are right, there are no BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVES" to <BITCOIN MINING ALTERNATIVE> You don't get have to get butthurt and defensive and say "B-BUT EVERY OTHER INVESTMENT EVER!" THIS JUST IN! People who bought Tesla stock instead of BFL made more money than people who bought BFL stop the fucking presses!!!! |
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that Avalon was holding onto chips and "gradually" releasing them, possibly to check that PCB MFGs are legit.. That's not their job. Their job is to ship chips to the shipping addresses listed for the people who paid $78,000 to order chips from them. Not saying it is, just a 'wild' theory I had heard. I don't put any faith in it. |
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Hmm, interesting. There is one other theory I had heard, but thus far no real credible evidence for.. that Avalon was holding onto chips and "gradually" releasing them, possibly to check that PCB MFGs are legit.. If the MFG timestamps on the ASICs line up with it, that might explain it, but why would they hide this purpose? It would tip their hand to the PCB assemblers, that they'd be that paranoid of running off with everything..?
If the chips were manufactured over 2.5 months ago, what could possibly explain them not being shipped?
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I'm saying people are citing this theory as fact, when we don't actually know what is happening at all. The real problem at this moment is a lack of full information. We don't know if there was a second batch or not. What if a first batch was contracted privately before the chips were offered to group buys? We don't know. I'm just asking people not state as fact what they don't know. Some people read this and assume the crazytalk is well researched analysis. It's misleading and it isn't helpful.
Again, occam's razor. Saying you know nothing is bullshit. You should have at least the simpliest theory that explains it to go from. Sadly, there's none that make sense that account for what we are seeing AND paint avalon in a good light Why the fuck did Avalon splinter while chips were being delivered? Custom's doesn't explain that I have an Avalon chip that has A3256-Q48 designated on it. Does that tell us anything? If that is all that is printed on the chip it may have been remarked. If that is the case and you want to try an experiment use a pencil eraser to rub the top of the chip and see if more marking are reviled under the top coat. It might take a few minuets of rubbing to see a result. Funny, doubt they would remark it if the chip says it was made CW32. They'd actually want to cover that fact up. Is this a sample chip with CW32 datemark? That's pretty damning evidence right there, either they ordered them on time, and something happened to the chips, or they waited a long ass time to order. |
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I just found this in another thread. It seems to document that one batch of Avalon chips was actually in customs for 60 days or so. Ok everybody, as promised, I have an update on the Avalon chips shipment status. I just got off the phone with Gary, the account manager for this particular case and this is exactly what he told me:
This shipment has been on hold by US Customs in New York since June 12th. He said that these are extremely extenuating circumstances because the most shipments ever get held up by Customs is about 30 days, so this is WAY past that. He also mentioned that US Customs has been non-cooperative when it comes to conveying any communication on the status of this case. So Gary and his company, they're all having a special meeting next Wednesday together with the Director of the US Customs of New York.
So we should have more information late Wednesday night. I will update you as soon as I get briefed on the matter.
Hope this helps shed a little more light on this unfortunate incident.
This is ragingazn628's group buy. The chips in question are sample chips. And they were held up in NY customs. And we still don't have those chips. Not a very good example, ragingazn628 has been very sketchy the whole time. No other group buy had issues with sample chips. They arrived prompty without any issues at customs. |
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I'm saying people are citing this theory as fact, when we don't actually know what is happening at all. The real problem at this moment is a lack of full information. We don't know if there was a second batch or not. What if a first batch was contracted privately before the chips were offered to group buys? We don't know. I'm just asking people not state as fact what they don't know. Some people read this and assume the crazytalk is well researched analysis. It's misleading and it isn't helpful.
Again, occam's razor. Saying you know nothing is bullshit. You should have at least the simpliest theory that explains it to go from. Sadly, there's none that make sense that account for what we are seeing AND paint avalon in a good light Why the fuck did Avalon splinter while chips were being delivered? Custom's doesn't explain that I have an Avalon chip that has A3256-Q48 designated on it. Does that tell us anything? Maybe, it could be a part number, a batch number, etc. Obviously not as simple as a date code, the Q48 is because it's a QFN 48 pin. Avalon may be going out of their way to remove/hide this data if it would be there otherwise as well. A good comparison would be sample chips vs arrived chips. Anything different? Avalon said the sample chips were supposed to be 4 weeks into the order.. so we'd have expected to see the full chips 6 weeks later. |
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Hmm.. that is true, refund would only need JohnK to act (with whatever critera, probably 51% of chips..)
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It's all of what look to be lies, and fairly transparent ones, that really bother me.
You always run the risk of losing everything you invest in anything related to crytpocurrencies.
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I'm saying people are citing this theory as fact, when we don't actually know what is happening at all. The real problem at this moment is a lack of full information. We don't know if there was a second batch or not. What if a first batch was contracted privately before the chips were offered to group buys? We don't know. I'm just asking people not state as fact what they don't know. Some people read this and assume the crazytalk is well researched analysis. It's misleading and it isn't helpful.
Again, occam's razor. Saying you know nothing is bullshit. You should have at least the simpliest theory that explains it to go from. Sadly, there's none that make sense that account for what we are seeing AND paint avalon in a good light Why the fuck did Avalon splinter while chips were being delivered? Custom's doesn't explain that Nothing has been explained yet. That's my point. Yifu has offered refunds. Let's see how that plays out, and in the interim everyone calm down. Refunds are not true refunds. Assembly cost of chips was almost the same price, if not more, than chips themselves. |
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Has ragingazn said anything on this?
Or has he still been pretty hard to get ahold of..
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I'm saying people are citing this theory as fact, when we don't actually know what is happening at all. The real problem at this moment is a lack of full information. We don't know if there was a second batch or not. What if a first batch was contracted privately before the chips were offered to group buys? We don't know. I'm just asking people not state as fact what they don't know. Some people read this and assume the crazytalk is well researched analysis. It's misleading and it isn't helpful.
Again, occam's razor. Saying you know nothing is bullshit. You should have at least the simpliest theory that explains it to go from. Sadly, there's none that make sense that account for what we are seeing AND paint avalon in a good light Why the fuck did Avalon splinter while chips were being delivered? Custom's doesn't explain that |
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They ordered the chips with your money, SOMEONE acquired them, used and still is using them for mining, and then they had to order another run of chips from TSMC after this happened. That's why the chips are so late.
Who acquired them? When? How do you know these chips are the same as the chips we ordered? This is exactly what I am talking about. You have no information to back any of these accusations up except "I saw a picture!!!". Tracking Info Manufacturer Silkscreen and timestamping on the chips themselves (Why the fuck are they ordered months after you had the money?) Occam's Razor Need I go on? Unless there is concrete proof these chips were ordered within a few weeks of when the money was received, Avalon is lying. Which is possible. I'm not saying anything concrete. I'm just saying can we quit with the crazy ass theoreticals for just a little while? There is no simple theory, maybe not even a complex theory, that explains the massive delay that absolves Avalon of guilt. The simplest theory, that perfectly explains the delay, is they had to order a second batch of chips. How the fuck is it a crazy theoretical? What do you think is a "sane" theoretical explanation for the delays? Because this bullshit about "customs" is certainly not it. |
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They ordered the chips with your money, SOMEONE acquired them, used and still is using them for mining, and then they had to order another run of chips from TSMC after this happened. That's why the chips are so late.
Who acquired them? When? How do you know these chips are the same as the chips we ordered? This is exactly what I am talking about. You have no information to back any of these accusations up except "I saw a picture!!!". Tracking Info Manufacturer Silkscreen and timestamping on the chips themselves (Why the fuck are they ordered months after you had the money?) Occam's Razor Need I go on? Unless there is concrete proof these chips were ordered within a few weeks of when the money was received, Avalon is lying. |
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Don't forget Bitfury's private pool(at least I believe it is his pool) -> https://ghash.io/. I haven't been keeping up with it but I know it has grown to 100 TH/s very quickly. This has nothing to do with the 100TH(now 200TH) mine. Wouldn't be surprised to see Bitfury just maintain 20% of the network for months to come given how efficient his chips are. edit: Just realized this post may not be useful for the purpose of your thread. Just something that should be considered though given the opportunity that Bitfury has to replace ASICMINER as the 800 pound gorilla on the network. If ASICMINER's 2nd generation chips can compete with Bitfury you could end up with a large chunk of the network held by those two. This is a single person with this hasing power? Single person is probably not accurate. It is a single entity I imagine it takes more than one person to build, manage, and maintain it. Ok, I had heard some talk that it was a combined pool of various, numerous people who had bought those chips |
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I have Bitburners on order and would switch over to 2-5 BitFurys for sure.
Same here. |
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Man, im tired to defend myself to people that doesnt even bother if their claims are true.
I wonder if this is exactly how Bitsyncom feels. Don't mean to kick the hornet's nest, but there's a lot of speculation and accusation going on in this thread and others that is generally baseless as hell. The only two gripes we REALLY have are that the chips weren't delivered on time and Yifu has been very begrudging with information on his side. All this talk about reselling chips and making insane profits and mining with CHIPS that have to be SODERED ONTO A BOARD before they work is just that; talk. Can we please maintain a level head in all of this? Yifu has already stated he's looking into refunds. That's an acknowledgement that shit went wrong and an attempt to rectify the situation. Can all the crazy people take a break for a little while so the grownups can sort shit out please? Nobody gives a shit about "acknowledging" solmething went wrong. That's self-evident, even a child can see that What is desired, and what is purposely being withheld, covered up, and obfusciated is WHAT went wrong. Ordering chips by a 10k reel from a fab and shipping them is orders of magnitude easier than selling their Batches #1 to #3 There is good evidence that a great deal of these chips EXISTED and WERE SHIPPED TOGETHER back in June to China. Lots of talk on Chinese forums about backroom deals Part of Avalon broke off at this time as well. Did they take all the chips? Why so secretive? Are these new batches just the "OH FUCK" second order they had to make? He said himself "NO BS" terms. Bullshit happened, and it wasn't explained. Don't even start with "conspiracy" talk either. These are plain facts, most of these yifu / avalon / etc admitted themselves. Until we get some real answers, nobody is going to trust Avalon. I'm not sure why they're even bothering with a 2nd gen while they leave these unanswered. The 'answers' we have gotten about customs simply do not line up with the facts, and don't account for what we have seen. Sure, don't trust them. Sure, don't bother with 2nd gen. But can we stop assuming these baseless accusations of shady backroom dealings and mining with chips (that would have to be mounted to boards before mining, which would be easy to see on the chips themselves) and all of this baseless nonsense? There are real issues here that I'm not discounting. I just hate all the extra bullshit that slips in and then is repeated over and over until everyone assumes it's the truth. The truth is: A) Chips are late as fuck B) Yifu is very withholding of crucial information and C) He's offering refunds. Everything else is speculation and should be treated as such. Yes, How fucking crazy to think that a possible 10 - 50,000,000$ profit in the hands of a dozen people or less classifies as a "conspiracy". They're not mining with your chips and shipping them to you They took your chips and ordered "your" chips 10+ weeks LATER, AGAIN, after SOMEONE took the first batch. 1. You order chips from TSMC 2. TSMC ships them 8-10 weeks later 3. You ship them to the customer So what the fuck went wrong? And stop with this fucking stupid ass strawman of "they took the chips, mounted them, then UNMOUNTED them and shipped them!" No you asshole They ordered the chips with your money, SOMEONE acquired them, used and still is using them for mining, and then they had to order another run of chips from TSMC after this happened. That's why the chips are so late. |
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Man, im tired to defend myself to people that doesnt even bother if their claims are true.
I wonder if this is exactly how Bitsyncom feels. Don't mean to kick the hornet's nest, but there's a lot of speculation and accusation going on in this thread and others that is generally baseless as hell. The only two gripes we REALLY have are that the chips weren't delivered on time and Yifu has been very begrudging with information on his side. All this talk about reselling chips and making insane profits and mining with CHIPS that have to be SODERED ONTO A BOARD before they work is just that; talk. Can we please maintain a level head in all of this? Yifu has already stated he's looking into refunds. That's an acknowledgement that shit went wrong and an attempt to rectify the situation. Can all the crazy people take a break for a little while so the grownups can sort shit out please? read thread carefully, search for tracking numbers, and then skip to page 80 to see chips from china. Those chips on page 80 prove nothing. Those chips were bought by a reseller for a client that never showed up. How does that prove anything at all? Everything on this thread is pure speculation. Why the fuck are chips ordered in april, with an 8-10 week leadtime coming down with 2-3x that leadtime? All the evidence points to the fact that the first batch was indeed ordered, but never showed up. These very few chips that have begun to ship? They were ordered from the fab 8-10 weeks ago from today. They are fucking chips from TSMC. They've already been made, the masks are good, it's simply a process of ordering more. It's the simplest fucking thing in the world, there is no long and complicated supply chain for a PCB assembly. There is the manufacturer of the chips, and the group buy / private party buying them. |
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Man, im tired to defend myself to people that doesnt even bother if their claims are true.
I wonder if this is exactly how Bitsyncom feels. Don't mean to kick the hornet's nest, but there's a lot of speculation and accusation going on in this thread and others that is generally baseless as hell. The only two gripes we REALLY have are that the chips weren't delivered on time and Yifu has been very begrudging with information on his side. All this talk about reselling chips and making insane profits and mining with CHIPS that have to be SODERED ONTO A BOARD before they work is just that; talk. Can we please maintain a level head in all of this? Yifu has already stated he's looking into refunds. That's an acknowledgement that shit went wrong and an attempt to rectify the situation. Can all the crazy people take a break for a little while so the grownups can sort shit out please? Nobody gives a shit about "acknowledging" solmething went wrong. That's self-evident, even a child can see that What is desired, and what is purposely being withheld, covered up, and obfusciated is WHAT went wrong. Ordering chips by a 10k reel from a fab and shipping them is orders of magnitude easier than selling their Batches #1 to #3 There is good evidence that a great deal of these chips EXISTED and WERE SHIPPED TOGETHER back in June to China. Lots of talk on Chinese forums about backroom deals Part of Avalon broke off at this time as well. Did they take all the chips? Why so secretive? Are these new batches just the "OH FUCK" second order they had to make? He said himself "NO BS" terms. Bullshit happened, and it wasn't explained. Don't even start with "conspiracy" talk either. These are plain facts, most of these yifu / avalon / etc admitted themselves. Until we get some real answers, nobody is going to trust Avalon. I'm not sure why they're even bothering with a 2nd gen while they leave these unanswered. The 'answers' we have gotten about customs simply do not line up with the facts, and don't account for what we have seen. |
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