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101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Elliott Wave... RSI... MACD ... How much should i rely on them to see BTC move? on: January 27, 2020, 04:44:37 PM
Very difficult to predict anything based on these indicators. I rather prefer to follow a few high profile speculators like

dmwardjr (very detailed godmode technical analysis)
his thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.0

exstasie (rather large scale sentiment analysis)
his thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.0

Josh Olszewicz (youtube crypto analysis)
https://www.youtube.com/user/carpenoctom

and Masterluc with his beast of a chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/
102  Economy / Speculation / Re: Extrapolating 2014 Correction: Could $6,500 Be The Low For Bitcoin? on: January 27, 2020, 04:39:51 PM
Absolutely not. We won't see the price drop under 8k every again. 8.2k to be more precise. The reason: people are more incentivise to hodl as we approach the halving. Every new low will be higher than the one before. In the last low the price dopped to 8.25k.
Close with bitcoin halving look impossible bitcoin could down under $6,500 because today bitcoin have been above $8,500 and keep going on to higher price, depend how situation external of bitcoin if getting bad news maybe little possible bitcoin back to lower price and going down,

Nothing is "impossible" however we're building quite some good foundation right now with a sideways time correction. But it looks that we're leaving the upper band of the downward channel finally behind for good. And it seems to work as planned for my investment at the end of 2019. Smiley
103  Economy / Speculation / Re: Corona Virus will Impact the price of Bitcoin ? on: January 26, 2020, 04:24:40 PM
how do you even come up with things like this? what is next, someone farts and you link that to bitcoin price too. it is not 1347 and Corona virus is not the black death in Europe to kill that many people and have any impact on price of anything let alone bitcoin.

Lol people keep on bringing things that is totally unnecessary. Such virus is a responsibility of a government to cure, and bitcoin doesn't have any thing to do with it. If ever this virus became to big to handle of one city alone then there will be a consideration involving bitcoin like having to spend some tools to cover up expenses.

I don't believe that. I saw articles which was claiming that the Corona Virus has anything to do with falling resource prices(oil, steel, tin). What a crap of correlation analysis.
104  Economy / Speculation / Re: should I buy now? on: January 26, 2020, 04:23:51 PM
*skip*
After Bitcoin breaking the $9k resistance it's just so fast to happen that it suddenly drop to $8600+ down to $8300+ until it becomes stable there. I don't think Bitcoin will ever go down to $7k farther after breaking the $9k, but still some people are still expecting it to happen.

We're forming quite a nice support area at around $8k, which represents a wonderful foundation for the next lift up.
105  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can Bitcoin Cost $ 25,000 by 2021? on: January 26, 2020, 04:22:46 PM
Bitcoin's buying price was 6500 USD and that was about 1 month ago! Right now, people still can buy because it's still not too late if you plan the long term. After Q3 of 2018, we have been talking that Bitcoin price will hit 20K-25K USD, 30K, 50K, 100K USD at the end of the year. 2018 has gone, 2019 too, but Bitcoin price did not cross even 14K USD after the bear run. So, I am not sure what will the actual price be, but by 2021, 20-25K USD is very possible for the Bitcoin, as the halving is coming and after 6 months of halving, BTC price should grow well like before.

I'm going to keep this one short, follow up on the previous analysis. Price bounced up quite nicely from the 8200/300, looked like it broke the wedge resistance line, but was hanging above it quite strangely. It wasn't a flag, also not a nice triangle. Was prob whales distributing and pushing price back down again.

Anyway, not a lot has changed with the picture. Maybe we never broke the resistance like this. But we are closing in at the end of the wedge , something i never like. The deeper it goes, the less reliable it becomes. Hopefully we get some of your wishful price action. Smiley
106  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2020 price predictions on: January 26, 2020, 04:20:41 PM
Paolo Ardoino, Chief technology officer of Bitfinex: " By the end of 2020, I think the Bitcoin price will be at least $20,000. "

Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream: " I have previously commented that I thought $250,000 to $500,000 would be plausible in the longer term. I think there is a good prospect of exceeding the previous all-time high of $20,000 in 2020, as the effects of the halving and technology fundamentals come to bear, perhaps reaching as high as $100,000. "

Marc P. Bernegger, Fintech investor at Crypto Finance: " Min: $22,000 and Max: $55,000 "

Alejandro De La Torre, Vice president at Poolin: "  Min: $5,000 and Max: $14,000 "

Mati Greenspan, Founder of Quantum Economics: " With a 99% certainty, we can say that Bitcoin will remain within a wide range between $100 and $1 million. "

Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMEX: " Min: $3,000 and Max: $20,000  "

Ivan on Tech, YouTube influencer: " Min: $3,400 and Max: $200,000 "

Nicholas Merten, Founder of YouTube channel DataDash: " $16000 "

Niklas Nikolajsen, Chairman and founder at Bitcoin Suisse AG: " Min: $5,900  and Max: $17,000 "

Zac Prince, CEO of BlockFi: " Min: $5,000 and Max: $60,000 "

Erik Voorhees, CEO of Shapeshift: " Min: $5,400 and Max: $150,000 "

Quite some bullish predictions from high profile actors in this space. Many expect a prolonged and strong bull run as one of their outcomes. But it is good to see that they give partially an extremely wide range for their prediction.

Expecting prices from $1k to $200k seems to be a safe bet anyway lol
107  Economy / Speculation / Re: Short term bullish run is now over, and it was most likely a failed rally on: January 26, 2020, 04:18:35 PM
Yes, there is no sign for the bull run in this year yet, maybe halving can change the scenario but still, no one is sure about it. I thought this time Bitcoin price will hoit 10K USD but the race stopped at 9100 USD and then it dumped by 1000 USD already. I don't think this is because of the Chinese Lunar year as the Coronavirus attacked there so there is no party in China at this moment, so, the dump was normal too. I hope everything will turn into positive again.

20% increase is no sign of a bull spring ? You better don't tell that to traditional investors. Tongue

One of the reason investors like "Long Only" funds is they are trading the market based on a broader trend. Yes trend is much different than momentum and it is important to understand this.

In order to spot a broader term trend we look at the structure of shorter term trends, and determine whether the market is bullish or bearish . Very simple and on the monthly chart, it is clear we have a broader term bullish trend .

108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Start buying on: January 25, 2020, 03:10:40 PM
Bitcoin is still up and down and still has a chance if you want to keep it. I personally prefer to use the short-term moment of Bitcoin for now. before the period approaches halving


What kind of short term moment ? We are still scratching above the upper line of the downwarding channel. The future movement will be dictated if we break up or go back again into that channel:

109  Economy / Speculation / Re: Now that we touched $8,000, what's next? on: January 25, 2020, 03:04:25 PM
Why is $9000 so difficult to reach?  Grin
Should it really be February before it happens?
Then maybe $10,000 at March and so on.

I really think that this time when we push above $10k, we won't see 5 digits for good anymore. This time will be different...  Grin
110  Economy / Economics / Re: How regulation affects the crypto price on: January 25, 2020, 02:40:46 PM
More than the price, regulations affect the accessibility factor. It makes it less accessible to people and hence, affects the adoption. This isn't really healthy for Bitcoin. There are countries where cryptos are outrightly illegal and there are some where heavy regulations make Bitcoin not at all worthy to have. Since, this curbs adoption. Demand won't rise that much as it could. This could at the end affect the price as a by product.

That is not really true! Regulations help to strength the market and make crypto currencies more available to the general public. No sane person wants to apply to some shady asian exchange just to buy a specific coin or token that they want to invest to.

The countries who make crypto illegal have usually far worse problems than monetary souveranity, thus making them a very bad example overall, due to their lack on all life quality on all borders. In Europa I would very much have a good and robust regulation, but on the other hand every country is cooking their own crypto meal and the regulations are extremely different. For example, crypto profits are entirely tax free in Portugal.
111  Economy / Economics / Re: Goverments creating digital currencies - Threat or Opportunity? on: January 25, 2020, 02:37:48 PM
Sound like centralization, if a government create their own crypto-currency then likely it would centralized. But it would positive for overall crypto economy. I don't think there is much threat for current crypto economies. When national crypto-currency will launched I think at the same time crypto-currency will legal for a country. There would trouble about financial freedom, because government will monitor you when you will use their currency. Anyway, we would realized the fact if any government create their own. Before that we can't say anything.

it definitely is centralized. No sane government or central bank would give away their power to create or destroy money and put stimulus on the economy.

This is why a decentralized approach won't work in central bank world. The population still thinks that these people are neutral and not political, which couldn't be further from wrong. Especially with politicians like Christine Lagarde at the top, this statement of neutrality can't be true anymore with a french puppet on top of a central bank.

Crypto currencies serve a very different need, and that is to diversify from your local currency to a world wide market, although much thinner in volume and market cap.  Talking back about government issues crypto currencies, I don't believe they need a crypto in its fancy name. Most of the cash is already digital and it will only get worse in the future.
112  Economy / Economics / Re: Halving is approacing: HOLD YOUR BITCOINS AND NEVER SELL THEM (118 days left) on: January 25, 2020, 02:31:18 PM
I like the enthusiasm this year after 2 years of bearish market. We are still not in a bull market certainly. But if the sentiments stay strong, we might get in one. Right now market is still trying to overcome from bear cycle. This speculation surrounding the halving could help in giving that one push after that the positive sentiments will do the rest. Let's see how it all turns out. Even I am accepting a fomo before halving.

Hodl your coins!

I wouldn't exactly call it overcoming the "bear cycle", rather the downwarding channel, which was actually a very good reality check after the overcoming of the bear market in 2019 and its rally to $13200. The trend downwards is just to put us back to the ground, the halving is still 3 months away, so there is still time for accumulation and weak hands to get shaky. Lucky for us, the halving is extremely bullish and people really try to hold on their coins for the next bull.
113  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] EARNBET SIGNATURE CAMPAIGN | SENIOR, HERO & LEGENDARY MEMBER | on: January 24, 2020, 05:34:57 PM
Username: Wexlike
Post Count: 1370
BTC Address: 3DhVRFF9sM88SWF7jrGFyNG3jpZDCNwRy2
114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Start buying on: January 24, 2020, 04:39:45 PM
Someone really bought at your 7.9k offer? I might try that later on. I really hate waiting for too long and that is why I cannot buy it for a cheaper price.

I made the buy order but it hasn't been filled yet.

Waiting is difficult, but is crucial.

I also don't understand the errors some of the newly investors are doing. I once had an order 20% below market price and some guy really managed to sell me his coins for that price.

I instantly sold it for the market price afterwards. Easiest money ever made I guess(besides the countless airdrops and forks in 2017).
115  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price in January 2020 will touch 10k, What do you think? on: January 24, 2020, 03:48:14 PM
This prediction will almost reach its price.
That is a good one.
I didn't even tried to predict at this month.
All I know is it will grow in a slow pace specially with the upcoming halving.
Maybe I could write mine here now. $12k at the start in the month of March. Hope it will.


That's over $10K and that price is already big compared to the price in the last 3 months.
Bitcoin will continue to amazed us, although price is not showing one sided movement, but the adoption really is growing.

if we hit that $12k and price will fall back again, it's not good for long term holder as that means they'll have to hold further
but for short term, they can easily make money, then accumulate again when it dump.

You are very right about the adoption. Compared to 6 years ago, so many people I know are already (sometimes just in tiny portions) invested into crypto and it really amazes me. Many don't even have a normal broker account, they just made the leap to crypto currencies as a tool of investment. And the price is just a number dictated by the whales. Can't do much about it as a small fish.
116  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price Rises to $20-$50k After Halving...Thoughts? on: January 24, 2020, 01:07:37 PM
Well, we will see it if the halving is very near, predictions might be going possible and if the event is so close and the price is changing up and bring up our expectation. hype is going around, if this will go through, then our prediction is going to make profits for us. this event will make new history if everyone will help to up bitcoin's reputation.

When I try to predict the future halving prices I really enjoy looking at one old chart of Masterluc which helps me put things into perspective

117  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will be main currency during WW III, and back to $20k ? on: January 24, 2020, 12:03:19 PM
If WWIII happen, I think no currency will be main because we know bitcoin need internet to be useful and the country affected by war has no more uses in any different kind of currency so the not affected area will be benefit on the war happens. so basically, bitcoin will be main in other country that support cryptocurrency uses and they will benefit on this battle happens not the affected country.

Thinking that the internet will stop working during a world war is delusional. I don't believe there will ever be a large scale country world war, like we experienced it through WW1 and WW2, however we will have several proxy wars fought by para military units and groups, who are supported by a specific country without wearing their banners.

Society is exhausted of wars and no human would support or go to war by him/herself. And I truly hope that small scale countrys start to adopt a little bit in crypto currencies so we truly have some kind of escape area when the big governments (europa / usa) start to go after our money after the next halving.
118  Local / Deutsch (German) / Re: Wann werden "Bitcoin relevante" Quantencomputer existieren? on: January 23, 2020, 09:10:24 PM
Google hat ja angekündigt, schon 2020 über Quantencomputer zu verfügen, so weit weg dürften wir also nicht mehr sein.
Sind die ein potenzielles Problem für den elliptic curve Algorithmus von BTC (und bspw auch von ETH)? Möglicherweise.
Wird BTC dadurch wertlos? Sicher nicht.

Die Entwicklung der BTC Blockchain steht ja nicht still. Es gibt bereits jetzt Quantum save Algorithmen mit denen die Blockchain des BTC verbessert weden kann, bspw als zusätzlicher Security Layer. Wie diese weiterentwickelt wird wird sich noch zeigen, ich sehs aber eher als Weiterentwicklungschance denn als Untergangsprophezeiung.


Dass ein Quanten Computer für SHA256 genutzt wird halte ich nicht für möglich. Praktisch die gesamte verschlüsselte Internetstruktur basiert auf dieser Art von Verschlüsselung, da wäre eine Regierung ziemlich bescheuert so eine Waffe auf einer öffentlichen Blockchain anzuwenden, nur um ein paar Bitcoins zu bewegen.

Da wird so eine Technologie doch viel eher für den Ernstfall aufgehoben, falls mal irgendwelche Atomwaffen Computer gehackt werden müssen, im Fall der Fälle. Smiley
119  Economy / Services / Re: [1-4 SLOTS OPEN] ChipMixer Signature Campaign | Sr Member+ | Up to 0.0375 BTC/w on: January 23, 2020, 02:02:07 PM
Username: Wexlike
Post Count: 1364
BTC Address (must be SegWit): 3DhVRFF9sM88SWF7jrGFyNG3jpZDCNwRy2
120  Economy / Speculation / Re: should I buy now? on: January 23, 2020, 01:50:03 PM
It is not hard if you have ever planned of it already. The market is dropping now and you can start buying while the others are thinking if it's the good time to buy now. Don't just think of it as a good time to buy but instead of thinking, just do it. When bitcoin has surged to $9,000 then everyone is thinking of buying at $8,500. Then $8500, $8400 and $8300 came. Just like them, you have to start thinking of what certain price you have to start filling up your bag with bitcoin.

To be honest, I think we are at a decisive point right now. We are close to the upper band of the downwarding channel. If we enter it back again, I would be not surprised to go all the way back down again, which would correlate to a price of $5-6k. Probably the whole crypto world is watching the price movement in the next 48 hours. Fingers crossing for some bounce back up.

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