my trade is looking good so far.  saw a fibo retracement level of 38.2% at $9079.4.  will add a SL to my trade at $9067.00 because the local low is at $9075. still not sure about the TP. maybe "let the winners run"?  |
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I don't know about the exact math, but seems to me that you need better than slightly more than 50% in order to actually have an edge, and so should not be fucking around unless your odds are in the 70%plus arena... and how the fuck do you measure it anyhow?
Yeah, a coin toss is 50/50, so getting a bit of an edge will help you in that case, but TA contains many variables and does not even measure all of the variables and sometimes there are folks out there who purposefully manipulate against the TA.. just to fuck folks out of money.
Maybe in the end, I am saying fuck TA and suggesting to establish a system that makes money no matter what. and stop fucking around with TA that only gives you slightly better than 50% and you are not even sure about that.
very true JJG but for a bullet proof system you need mostly deep pockets to drive the market in "your" direction to get out with a profit in 70 to 80 percent of the trades. |
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in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading. example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below? https://i.imgur.com/UvukrWk.png1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day. 2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day. so, "my" support line is at $9135.0 (Bitstamp). you can see it in the screenshot of the "bitstamp" data with daily candle of "DATE: 2020-02-02" and daily low of "L: 9135.0". https://i.imgur.com/MQXw55L.pngTO DO according to my trading rules: 1.) if the today daily close (UTC) is above 9135.0 I will BUY on a Deribit DEMO account.2.) if the today daily close (UTC) is below 9135.0 I will SELL on a Deribit DEMO account. https://i.imgur.com/Evvt1BY.pngso the daily close (UTC) was above $9135.0.  and I bought 1 lot on a Deribit DEMO account.   |
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With China’s mining hardware makers delayed by the coronavirus, some miners face risks ahead of halvingQUICK TAKE- Due to the coronvavirus outbreak in China, several Chinese mining hardware manufacturers – including Bitmain, Canaan, and MicroBT – all extended the Lunar New Year holiday
- Although many mining farms have already upgraded their mining equipment prior to 2019 in preparation for the block reward halving, some are still waiting for their miners to be delivered while others are deploying their rigs and in need of customer support
- Depending on the severity of the virus outbreak, this production schedule disruption may have a varying degree of effect on miners around the world
With China’s mining hardware makers delayed by the coronavirus, some miners face risks ahead of halvingBY CELIA WAN The coronavirus outbreak could present new challenges to bitcoin miners – and the companies in China that provide them with harder – depending on how well prepared they are for the upcoming block reward halving. The Chinese government decided to extend the Lunar New Year holiday until February 2 due to the spreading virus that has gripped the entire nation by fear and uncertainty. Subsequently, several of the largest bitcoin mining equipment manufacturers, including Bitmain, MicroBT, and Canaan, put out notices informing clients that they have suspended shipping, manufacturing, and customer services of their mining rigs. FULL STORY
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next 2 days are critical too!
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dude...that was 2 weeks ago I have been in quarantine for 14 days, what do you expect? the posts of BFL Josh are coming to my mind again: "just two weeks" TMdo you mean it has something to do with Corona? maybe BFL was the original source of it? a lab and not a business to develop and produce ASIC miners?  Tante Edit(h): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=44366 |
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Add more RAM so you don't run out of memory. Can also use SSD / HDD as virtual memory, but that slows down stuff.
Just need to buy more from the MemoryDealers he is rich enough!  EDIT: just a quick question: what is the background of the implemented sMerit burn fuction? two rMerits result into just one sMerit? no hoarding of sMerit? To decay merit cycling. Otherwise just *ONE* Smerit could result in the "creation" of an unlimited amount of Merit just by cycling it repeteadly between users.how come? if one rMerit results into one sMerit the amount will not increase. hoarding of sMerit of some users could be a problem then and selling it afterwards. I assume by rMerit you mean Merits. If this some sort of new thing I am unaware, disregard all my comment. If I do have 1 Smerit and when I sent it you you would obtain 1 Merit and 1 Smerit, we could just cycle the same Smerit back and forth between us and reach an unlimited amount of Merit. Just by cycling the same Smerit. yes, with rMerit I mean Merit. lol, I completely forgot the aim of the whole Merit thing. to increase the level of the user through his Merit bankroll. forgot the bankroll completely.  thanks brother! you are my man. #nohomoEDIT: by the way what is missing here on Bitcointalk.org is a marriage between some users like in other online communities? or am I wrong? #nohomo |
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Add more RAM so you don't run out of memory. Can also use SSD / HDD as virtual memory, but that slows down stuff.
Just need to buy more from the MemoryDealers he is rich enough! EDIT: just a quick question: what is the background of the implemented sMerit burn fuction? two rMerits result into just one sMerit? no hoarding of sMerit? To decay merit cycling. Otherwise just *ONE* Smerit could result in the "creation" of an unlimited amount of Merit just by cycling it repeteadly between users.how come? if one rMerit results into one sMerit the amount will not increase. hoarding of sMerit of some users could be a problem then and selling it afterwards. |
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Add more RAM so you don't run out of memory. Can also use SSD / HDD as virtual memory, but that slows down stuff.
Just need to buy more from the MemoryDealers he (Bcash Jesus) is rich enough! EDIT: just a quick question: what is the background of the implemented sMerit burn fuction? two rMerits result into just one sMerit? no hoarding of sMerit? |
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Edit: Tomorrow would be likely too early to tell if this the level you are talking about is support (based on the Daily time-frame), unless it moves above recent swing high of course. Likewise, it would also likely be too early to tell if what I believe is correct, until the sequential count is reversed, macd bull-crosses again (ie days later) and/or a return to the previous trading range. If you're trading a different time-frame to your referenced chart then please say however.
lol, I am a hypothetical short term trader not a hypothetical swing trader. tomorrow EOD in profit or not!? I don't have much doubt you'll be in profit by eod tomorrow.... what I doubt is that you'll be in profit by next early week  If we're looking at the shorter time-frame, like the 4hr, then this seems totally possible, just not on the "Daily time-scale" for me. Regardless, I admire your confidence. we will see. in the meantime I took a look at the weekly chart and this week we have a red candle so far. could be that we are in a retracement week and the last red candle week had a long down wick. so maybe tomorrow is the day of a down wick again? but what's said is said. I'm not sure about TP as of now. will constantly monitor it. SL is account size which is 10 BTC with leverage of 100:1. order size will be 1 lot (100,000.00 USD). kamikaze style because it's just a DEMO account.  |
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^^ it's a Bubble like Bitcoin! |
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in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading. example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below?  1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day. 2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day. so, "my" support line is at $9135.0 (Bitstamp). you can see it in the screenshot of the "bitstamp" data with daily candle of "DATE: 2020-02-02" and daily low of "L: 9135.0".  TO DO according to my trading rules: 1.) if the today daily close (UTC) is above 9135.0 I will BUY on a Deribit DEMO account. 2.) if the today daily close (UTC) is below 9135.0 I will SELL on a Deribit DEMO account.  |
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Edit: Tomorrow would be likely too early to tell if this the level you are talking about is support (based on the Daily time-frame), unless it moves above recent swing high of course. Likewise, it would also likely be too early to tell if what I believe is correct, until the sequential count is reversed, macd bull-crosses again (ie days later) and/or a return to the previous trading range. If you're trading a different time-frame to your referenced chart then please say however.
lol, I am a hypothetical short term trader not a hypothetical swing trader. tomorrow EOD in profit or not!? |
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Yeh of course that's just my belief, that goes without saying. In fact, I don't always believe I'm right, as I don't execute every trade. Only those I hold conviction in. Hence I believe the price will fall further based on the metrics referenced, but I'm not taking a short trade (or selling long), as I don't see enough short-term confluence at the moment. Weird huh?
"Weird huh?" not really because I do not trade either. just hodl. but I'm seriously thinking about to flag my post with "I do not trade according to my analysis. Just hodl, guys! Because less then 10% (or 5% ??) can beat the market constantly via trading."  |
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in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading. example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below? 1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day. 2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day. To me this isn't the support, or as clear cut as this. Closing below $9,288 would be a new Daily closing low outside of the support/resistance range which would be short-term bearish, as well as confirming the sequential trend-change with a Red 2, and at current prices a MACD bear-corss. Last time the sequential turned bearish was January 20th before another 5% correction, which isn't a lot, but it went further down is the point. Not to say this is a selling range for longs, as the 200 Day MA is closeby as well as local and long-term fib retracement support levels, 21 Week MA etc, but on a Daily scale things are currently looking bearish unless we can return to the neutral range around $9,300. do believe that above. this doesn't mean an other do believe that too. and we should not discuss about what is the truth in TA. every TA guy do believe he is right otherwise he wouldn't do the trade. but what is the truth in TA is that: the simpler the better. EDIT: let's check my simple example tomorrow again. 1.) if it will succeed I will say: "I told you so!" 2.) if it won't succeed I will say: "The purpose was just for demonstration!" |
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in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading. example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below? 1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day. 2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day. More/less than 50% is almost like nothing. It could be 50.01% vs 49.99%. Only when TA can offer an EV of a few % points it can become useful... even if barely in most cases. mostly true but the second weapon is your money management. even if you have a success rate of less than 50 percent of your trades you can be profitable because you have less large winners versus more small losers. |
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in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading. example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below? 1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day. 2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day. |
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who sold the bottom at $9076 (Bitstamp)?  |
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new AYH confirmed at $9615 (Bitstamp).  |
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interesting behavior: the FX market did open (05:00 pm NYC local time) and BTC goes down. Merde!EDIT: Tokio is buying back the dip like crazy. |
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