Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gyrsur]

in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading.

example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below?



1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

More/less than 50% is almost like nothing. It could be 50.01% vs 49.99%. Only when TA can offer an EV of a few % points it can become useful... even if barely in most cases.

mostly true but the second weapon is your money management. even if you have a success rate of less than 50 percent of your trades you can be profitable because you have less large winners versus more small losers.

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[jojo69]

Good guy NSA reveals crypt32.dll sploit

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51106356

dude...that was 2 weeks ago

[Gyrsur]

in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading.

example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below?



1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

To me this isn't the support, or as clear cut as this. Closing below $9,288 would be a new Daily closing low outside of the support/resistance range which would be short-term bearish, as well as confirming the sequential trend-change with a Red 2, and at current prices a MACD bear-corss. Last time the sequential turned bearish was January 20th before another 5% correction, which isn't a lot, but it went further down is the point. Not to say this is a selling range for longs, as the 200 Day MA is closeby as well as local and long-term fib retracement support levels, 21 Week MA etc, but on a Daily scale things are currently looking bearish unless we can return to the neutral range around $9,300.

YOU do believe that above. this doesn't mean an other do believe that too. and we should not discuss about what is the truth in TA. every TA guy do believe he is right otherwise he wouldn't do the trade.

but what is the truth in TA is that: the simpler the better.

EDIT: let's check my simple example tomorrow again.

1.) if it will succeed I will say: "I told you so!"

2.) if it won't succeed I will say: "The purpose was just for demonstration!"

 

[dragonvslinux]

in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading.

example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below?



1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

To me this isn't the support, or as clear cut as this. Closing below $9,288 would be a new Daily closing low outside of the support/resistance range which would be short-term bearish, as well as confirming the sequential trend-change with a Red 2, and at current prices a MACD bear-corss. Last time the sequential turned bearish was January 20th before another 5% correction, which isn't a lot, but it went further down is the point. Not to say this is a selling range for longs, as the 200 Day MA is closeby as well as local and long-term fib retracement support levels, 21 Week MA etc, but on a Daily scale things are currently looking bearish unless we can return to the neutral range around $9,300.

YOU do believe that above. this doesn't mean an other do believe that too. and we should not discuss about what is the truth in TA. every TA guy do believe he is right otherwise he wouldn't do the trade.

Yeh of course that's just my belief, that goes without saying. In fact, I don't always believe I'm right, as I don't execute every trade. Only those I hold conviction in. Hence I believe the price will fall further based on the metrics referenced, but I'm not taking a short trade (or selling long), as I don't see enough short-term confluence at the moment. Weird huh?

but what is the truth in TA is that: the simpler the better.

Agree and disagree. When there is lots of confluence this is the best outlook, when there is a lack of it, it's best to explore deeper to try and understand what's going on.

EDIT: let's check my simple example (reason was just for demonstration) tomorrow again.

1.) if it will succeed I will say: "I told you so!"

2.) if it won't succed I will say: "The purpose was just for demonstration!"

I think if it succeeds your best off maintaining your modesty, if it fails, you can accept that you were wrong.
But hey, do as you please, that's just my opinion remember

Edit: Tomorrow would be likely too early to tell if this the level you are talking about is support (based on the Daily time-frame), unless it moves above recent swing high of course. Likewise, it would also likely be too early to tell if what I believe is correct, until the sequential count is reversed, macd bull-crosses again (ie days later) and/or a return to the previous trading range. If you're trading a different time-frame to your referenced chart then please say however.

[Gyrsur]

Yeh of course that's just my belief, that goes without saying. In fact, I don't always believe I'm right, as I don't execute every trade. Only those I hold conviction in. Hence I believe the price will fall further based on the metrics referenced, but I'm not taking a short trade (or selling long), as I don't see enough short-term confluence at the moment. Weird huh?

"Weird huh?" not really because I do not trade either. just hodl.  

but I'm seriously thinking about to flag my post with "I do not trade according to my analysis. Just hodl, guys! Because less then 10% (or 5% ??) can beat the market constantly via trading."  

[dragonvslinux]

Yeh of course that's just my belief, that goes without saying. In fact, I don't always believe I'm right, as I don't execute every trade. Only those I hold conviction in. Hence I believe the price will fall further based on the metrics referenced, but I'm not taking a short trade (or selling long), as I don't see enough short-term confluence at the moment. Weird huh?

"Weird huh?" not really because I do not trade either. just hodl.  

I trade my published analysis, but not every opinion or belief that I have. For me this would be over-trading  

but I'm seriously thinking about to flag my post with "I do not trade according to my analysis. Just hodl, guys! Because less then 10% (or 5% ??) can beat the market constantly via trading."  

I only trade with upto 10-15% of my holdings, so yeh there is that factor, as well as taking profits in satoshis rather than fiat 

[Gyrsur]

Edit: Tomorrow would be likely too early to tell if this the level you are talking about is support (based on the Daily time-frame), unless it moves above recent swing high of course. Likewise, it would also likely be too early to tell if what I believe is correct, until the sequential count is reversed, macd bull-crosses again (ie days later) and/or a return to the previous trading range. If you're trading a different time-frame to your referenced chart then please say however.

lol, I am a hypothetical short term trader not a hypothetical swing trader. tomorrow EOD in profit or not!?  

[Gyrsur]

in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading.

example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below?



1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

so, "my" support line is at $9135.0 (Bitstamp). you can see it in the screenshot of the "bitstamp" data with daily candle of "DATE: 2020-02-02" and daily low of "L: 9135.0".




TO DO according to my trading rules:

1.) if the today daily close (UTC) is above 9135.0 I will BUY on a Deribit DEMO account.

2.) if the today daily close (UTC) is below 9135.0 I will SELL on a Deribit DEMO account.

[fillippone]

btc slowly dropping is probably because everyone buying TSLA. I'm hodling both

 Blimey!

what's the rumor behind, this time?

Panasonic, TSLA battery partner is making money from their partnership.
This is crucial because mean they significantly lowered their costs per Kw.
This means TSLA has a HYGE advantage over competitor.

(Bloomberg) --Tesla Inc.’s shares rallied for a fifth day Monday, adding more than $100 per share, as a torrent of good news further boosted investor sentiment.
The stock rose as much as 21% to $786.14, its highest price ever, and the stock’s best intraday gain since May 2013.

Earlier today, Panasonic Corp., which makes batteries for Tesla at its jointly operated battery plant in Nevada, said the business turned profitable in the quarter ended Dec. 31. The rapid increase in Tesla’s output helped push that business into the black, Panasonic Chief Financial Officer Hirokazu Umeda told reporters in Tokyo on Monday, declining to give specific figures.

TSLA reaches Bitcoin parity!


Tesla Reaches Bitcoin Parity, Overtakes PayPal

Tesla has been bitcoining, up and up since late October when its price of $250 slowly rose to $500 to then nearly double since the 30th of January to now $900.

This has given the electronic car manufacturer a market cap of circa $165 billion, around the same as that of bitcoin, and quite a bit higher than PayPal’s $140 billion and higher than that of Netflix’s $160 billion in addition to it being higher than any other car manufacturer.

Looks like it's a short squeeze.
Same thing happened to Porsche (why always aut osector stocks?) a couple of years ago.

[Gyrsur]

^^ it's a Bubble like Bitcoin! 

[nutildah]

I'll take a moment to talk about my own trading experience, except instead of BTC I've been solely attempting to short BSV with massive leverage in very short term trades (5 minutes to 2-3 hours). I admit the learning curve was pretty steep and on my second day I got liquidated. Then I hit it again the next day, determined to do better. I lost half of my 2nd deposit. Still not wanting to give up, I plowed through the 3rd day and finally got a few wins. 6 days in and I'm finally back to break even, LOL.

Luckily the overall market trend has been working on my side and minus the occasional pump, I expect it to for the long term. I just don't want to be caught with my pants down when Coingeek releases the next round of BS PRs about how "new evidence proves Craig is Satoshi." Likewise, I don't want to miss the shipwreck if BSV death spirals due to an unintended fork, or any number of other potential reasons, of which there are many.



The platform I'm using leaves these nice lil arrows reminding you where you made your entry/exits... For the first 2-3 days I didn't understand what the hell they were there for.

[dragonvslinux]

Edit: Tomorrow would be likely too early to tell if this the level you are talking about is support (based on the Daily time-frame), unless it moves above recent swing high of course. Likewise, it would also likely be too early to tell if what I believe is correct, until the sequential count is reversed, macd bull-crosses again (ie days later) and/or a return to the previous trading range. If you're trading a different time-frame to your referenced chart then please say however.

lol, I am a hypothetical short term trader not a hypothetical swing trader. tomorrow EOD in profit or not!?  

I don't have much doubt you'll be in profit by eod tomorrow.... what I doubt is that you'll be in profit by next early week
If we're looking at the shorter time-frame, like the 4hr, then this seems totally possible, just not on the "Daily time-scale" for me.
Regardless, I admire your confidence.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Nice Chart..

When in doubt, zoom out #bitcoin

Source: https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1224717525172117504

[DeathAngel]

Might be a good time to start shorting TSLA

Wonder if anybody who has benefited from their pumps will convert into bitcoin

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/lectrr/status/1222781225930280960?s=21

[Gyrsur]

Edit: Tomorrow would be likely too early to tell if this the level you are talking about is support (based on the Daily time-frame), unless it moves above recent swing high of course. Likewise, it would also likely be too early to tell if what I believe is correct, until the sequential count is reversed, macd bull-crosses again (ie days later) and/or a return to the previous trading range. If you're trading a different time-frame to your referenced chart then please say however.

lol, I am a hypothetical short term trader not a hypothetical swing trader. tomorrow EOD in profit or not!?  

I don't have much doubt you'll be in profit by eod tomorrow.... what I doubt is that you'll be in profit by next early week
If we're looking at the shorter time-frame, like the 4hr, then this seems totally possible, just not on the "Daily time-scale" for me.
Regardless, I admire your confidence.

we will see. in the meantime I took a look at the weekly chart and this week we have a red candle so far. could be that we are in a retracement week and the last red candle week had a long down wick. so maybe tomorrow is the day of a down wick again?

but what's said is said. I'm not sure about TP as of now. will constantly monitor it. SL is account size which is 10 BTC with leverage of 100:1. order size will be 1 lot (100,000.00 USD). kamikaze style because it's just a DEMO account.  

[jojo69]

Trump wins Iowa caucus...lolol

[Arriemoller]

+ammo

I'm pinning my life on this -



You can use it for impromptu kidney dialysis, hit yourself over the head for pain relief, fill woodland creatures with orangey syrup for a quick and nutritious meal, fire it at people and wipe your arse with it or simply plug it and get the fire brigade to remove it when sanitation returns.

It's a one stop retro survival engine.

Looks just the one I bought in the 80s when I moved to my first apartment, can not remember mine having all the extra features, could be different from country to country. Will have to check old manual.

[lightfoot]

Trump wins Iowa caucus...lolol

Well the Dems used crap technology and it caught up with them. Probably billed as "futuristic" and would save them 10k in costs or something.

Those systems are super easy to DOS. Which is basically what has happened here. Ah well.

[OutOfMemory]

Hi folks.
Great site, great thread.
More details on me later...

Just wanted to say hello