Not all entities are the same, including what motivates their powers, even if in the media or legal system, they sometimes might be clumped as if they were the same thing.

Similar to bitcoin.. it is not the same as other coins, even though sometimes it is clumped as if it were the same.  Minor details that I do not have time, right now, to explain.  ... 

Exactly, mindrust.

I see you are going back to basics.. which is not necessarily a bad thing... especially if you know that you had missed some basic lessons along the way, in your first 6.5 years investing into bitcoin.

Maybe in some time that is less than 6 years, you will be in a similar place to where you had been.... but even MOAR better, because you are starting from the beginning and getting rid of some of your old bad habits, presumably.. we hope...  We hope..


By the way, I feel a need to repeat myself; however, after a bit more than a year and a half of my having had invested into bitcoin, which would have been about July/August 2015 (right after the BTC price had shot up from the mid $200s to $317 and then largely corrected back below the mid $200s), I had decided that, at that point, it was o.k. (permissible) for me to invest a little bit extra into bitcoin (slightly beyond what I had considered to be an acceptable level of investment), so that I would feel comfortable selling a little bit of bitcoin once the BTC price would go up, presuming that at some point BTC prices would go up.... and yeah, by then we had been mostly bouncing around in the mid $200s for a considerable amount of time.. in spite of the one bounce above $300 in mid-July.

Sure, there was a bit of a presumption in my continuing to invest in bitcoin and developing a plan to overload my BTC investment a bit, so that at some point, I would feel comfortable skimming some off with the presumable upward movement of BTC's price that might have never come... I presumed based on some level of confidence that I had established by studying the space for more than a year and a half, that I was investing in something that had decent fundamentals and that at some point the BTC price was going to go up, yet at the same time, if the BTC price had continued to stay flat or to have gone down from its then $200s in 2015, I would have merely just continued dollar cost averaging buying.. but probably keeping my investment amounts very low because I had already felt that I had invested a lot into BTC and my then investment was floating around 50% in the negative when the BTC price was in the mid $200s because my costs per BTC were around $500.. but slowly coming down.. but still pretty damned high, relative to the then price...

Presumably, I was prepared to ride it all the way down to zero, even though I had only been tested to $150 in around late January 2015 and down to around $200 in late August 2015... So, yes, even those downward tests were gut wrenching.. and something that caused some test of my determination to ride the whole thing down to zero, if need be.. because I did not see any meaningful undermining of BTC's fundamentals in 2015 as compared to when I had started to invest in late 2013, and I saw the fundamentals to have been stronger in 2015... just like I see the fundamentals of BTC to be several magnitudes stronger than they were just a few years ago... even as compared to the late 2017 top of or then price spurt...

in other words, BTC seems to be fundamentally stronger today than it was in late 2017.. .. and sure you can believe otherwise, if you like and temper down your investment level to the level of your belief in the strength of BTC's fundamentals.   Like you said, don't be willing to invest more than you are willing to ride all the way down to the bottom, if need be... and hopefully, it does not come to that... hahahahahaha    



You seem to imply that risk of going to zero is different from volatility risk, which would be true, but at the same time you are convoluting the concepts (which would be erroneous thinking).

There are different tactics that BTC investors can take to protect themselves from volatility risk as compared to the risk of BTC going to zero.  Not investing more than you can afford to lose is one of the main ways to protect yourself from going to zero risk.

Buying on the way down, dollar cost averaging and selling on the way up are some of the better non-leveraged ways of lessening volatility risk (or taking advantage of volatility to profit from it, as long as BTC does not death spiral down to zero).


Admit it.. you are barely even 50% sure... that's why you fucked up on March 12, and then doubled your fuck ups on subsequent days and still kind of fucking up because you are still having some troubles getting in touch with your own doubts that are compounded by your desires to gamble... which in your mind you are still gambling that BTC might go down to sub $3k, which will cause you to go all in.. or at least get some feelings of vindication (which is not very likely to happen, and you know that and continue to struggle with it.  That's why you bought 1 BTC at these prices last week-ish).  You fuck....



Good point.  


That might be a good idea.  We know too much.  


In other words, you are still a lost puppy... at least when it comes to your understanding of bitcoin, even after you have had more time in the forum than me.  Might have to go back to AlcoHoDL's assessment that you are likely going to regret that you have lost your way in regards to understanding bitcoin and having a decently solid BTC investment strategy that would likely be more than just aspiring to 1 coin, especially if you had previously reached 10 (of course, then over bought and over extended, but 1/10th seems underexposed, but whatever, you have to decide that for yourselfie).

Well, yeah.

You and I seem to be largely on the same page there, and yeah, the plan involves preparing for a lot of extreme scenarios, which the March 12th situation should have been reasonably encompassed in one of the possible scenarios... even though it was a bit of an extreme one.. but it was also pretty damned short-lived, too.≥.. in the whole scheme of things with a variety of macro explanations that would not have justified panicking so quickly in such circumstances.. and then also taking weird subsequent stances of largely refusing to mitigate some of the losses, after the mistake was realized.



You may be correct, there...   Parts of it still do not really seem to add up very well.  I am not going to fight you in regards to your thinking in that direction.



Mindrust was not exactly a noob, and he largely did not seem afraid to ask questions and to provide feedback, which surely were some of his redeeming qualities, and I am not sure if he really lost those qualities, even though we are likely putting him on the defensive quite a bit.. which he deserves a lot of it, seems to me.


You are probably either misremembering, or maybe you had not noticed, but surely mindrust had several episodes of emotionalness, being overly pessimistic, predicting doom and gloom and behaviors like that, but surely selling his whole BTC stash did seem to be a bit too extreme in terms of being a bit further out of character than those previous bouts of negative nancy...

In any event, panicking and selling some BTC stash at the wrong time is not wholly inconsistent with some of mindrust's previous illogical and seemingly extreme approaches that sometimes had seemed short -lived and they ended up largely resolving themselves with the BTC price going up.


You might be right about the conclusion, but there were previous signs of emotional weakness, and undue bearishness out of mindrust... just saying.


Yeah, but there have been a lot of high ranking and even high trusted forum members who end up exit scamming, so there is always a need for some vigilance and skepticisms, even with high ranking and long track record members


Fair enough.


Sure, those are fair skepticisms, too.


Sure.  You are clear enough, yet even though I consider mindrust's actions to have been severe, I conclude that the transformation was not likely as great as you had made it out to be.  That's just my take on it, currently.

I don't necessarily know how it wold play out, but seem that basic medical care is a human right, but would not necessarily mean that it would be free or that certain proceedures might have some co-pay, perhaps.


You are creating a strawman if you believe that I had said anything close to that.    


Of course, fair systems would likely reward people who have greater drive, persistence and smartness.


There are likely ways that take away some of the extremes without having to cause everyone to become equal... You seem to still be going down this strawman angle.


Ok. maybe we agree about that general point.     or at least, there might be some needs to remove or reduce either outrageous hurdles that some people might have that others do not have, but might mean that there are no hurdles remaining.

hahahaha


I was trolling you.

I admit it.




That 10% of that is nearly the amount that mindrust proclaimed to have struggled to garner up for over more than 3 years of painstakingly stacking sats, right before he sold all of it at $4,500.  How would that feel?

Oh god, you are sounding bitter, mindrust, and reading way the fuck more than necessary into normal market activities.

first of all someone who held for 10 years can sell whatever the fuck they want and they are going to be profitable.. and it does not even necessarily reflect anything in relation to the strength or weakness of BTC fundamentals.

Your situation, mindrust, is quite different from theirs, and dumbass of you to spend well over 3 years trying to figure out and fix your strategy, and then you blow all of it in one panic session.. you are selling at a loss or maybe at best break even... that situation is much different from folks who had been in for 10 years or even 5-6 years.

The 10 year folks are having costs for their BTC in the single digits, and yeah if they fucked up a bit, maybe their costs are in the double digits, but that still is way over 1000x profits.

Even the guys in the 5-6 years time horizon are going to be decently profitable compared to you, but even would have been silly for some 5-6 year holders to be selling in such downward crash conditions, even though there likely are some, but if we are smart, we are not going to be following their example to be selling on such extreme levels of price corrections, even if we might get scared during such events.. we surely are not going to be selling all of our stash.. because that would be short-sighted, dumb and even sabotaging of our own previous work... which is what you accomplished with both your gambling attempt of selling everything and it did not pay off, and you are subsequently trying to rationalize your dumbass emotionally-laden selling on the dip behaviors...


and your gambling and hoping to buy back later at a lower price and your failure and refusal to buy back at a loss or even to merely break even because you let your dumbness also turn into greed.. and many of us are sad for you even though we criticize you, but your arrogance does make it a bit easier for several of us to feel less sorry for you.

Something seems slightly wrong with your thinking on this topic, Oom - or maybe it is just your presentation.

My opinion is that the more that any of us prepares for a variety of scenarios (including extreme scenarios), the less likely that any of us is going to perform some act that seems to be outrageously inconsistent with our past discussions regarding our preparations, plans or BIG goals, which a certain amount of consistency seems to reflect our character, so in that regard, many of us continue to be a bit shocked and taken aback by mindrust because he spent so much time discussing his various strategies and even a certain amount of the extremes, including his mindset to a considerable degree.. that he was just seeming willing to just throw out the window all of a sudden...

Sure, he has the right to do that.. and sure it is going to piss a lot of people off because it was seemingly quite a bit removed from what he had been disclosing his plans, scenarios and even extremes of such.

Members even talk about various scenarios in which they are going to do certain things, and of course, none of us mere mortals can plan all of the specifics, and surely sometimes, we might just end up pulling the trigger or going to beyond our plan.. that is all within reasonableness that we might become emotional and even engage in some extreme inconsistent actions, and we are free to do those kinds of things because we should have a decent amount of discretion and authority in regards to our own BTC holdings.  

Of course, some of us might have a significant other, family or even business relations (fiduciary duties) that might limit some of the scope of our discretion, yet I still would not consider it crazy for members to engage in buying or selling of BTC activities that go somewhat beyond their previously described plans and scenarios.

Another bothersome aspect of mindrust might have to do with his seemingly conversion into a kind of nocoiner perspective.. which is really irritating and really not justified, even given that he did seem to paint himself in a corner to some extent.


But, within reason, he already told us dood.....   I would not conclude that mindrust has become so untrustworthy that we cannot, at all, rely on any of his representations, even though I understand that a number of people are going to develop increasingly high levels of skepticism regarding whether mindrust might be pulling our leg in some regards.

Sure, he is being a little bit vague (but what do you expect), but the thrust still remains that soon after his having had sold all of his coins in the $4,500 range, then he said that he was considering buying some back under certain continued BTC price drop conditions, and he did not buy any back at that time.  Then he said that he was going begin some kind of wimpy-ass DCA, such as $50 per week, and he may have reported one  or two of those buys, then a week or so ago, he said that he bought a whole coin...   So, whatever, he did make some rebuy disclosures that might be somewhat weird but there should not be any real doubt about those modest measures.. and it is not like he is making any kind of killing on any of them, but just establishing that he has a bit of a stake in bitcoin that goes a bit above nocoiner status, even if his mindset continues to largely be demonstrated as a kind of disgruntled and bitter nocoiner..... which many of us have difficulties appreciating such disgruntled and bitter nocoiner perspectives, even though we know that they exist out there, but are not so frequently part of persons who we had previously given a decent amount of credibility and trust.


Tether is not likely to collapse.

So you have created a stupid-ass and unrealistic condition for yourself to continue as a nocoiner or something near to a nocoiner --- as a kind of nocoiner with fantastically narrow ideas of conditions precedent mindset.

Having said all of that, Oom, each of us is still best off to attempt to identify our personal areas of strengths, weaknesses, interests, passions, and also to try to make something out of the whole short period of time that we are on the planet.

Probably all people will advance in their learning, and some people are going to prepare a lot for various areas of interest that might be more focused or ambitious than others, some will achieve and go beyond their wildest dreams and others will fall way short of anything close to their most modest of dreams.  

Some people become very interesting to listen to when there are in their 50s or older, and others seem to have little to no insight regarding how the world works or what their role has been in such complex and changing world.  Don't get me wrong, I am not even really claiming that some people don't have anything at all to contribute because frequently even seemingly dumb folks will have certain kinds of talents or speciality areas in which they know more than others or can do more unique tasks than others, but still there are both levels that have been achieved and also variations in starting point levels too.

Sure there is the expression that the apple does not fall very far from the tree, but at the same time, sometimes there can also be a considerable amount of accomplishment variation, even within families and within generations that is not always progressive, even while accounting for varying environmental differentiation factors... and even counting for how preparation had met opportunity and the ability to have luck or to be able to take advantage of such luck if it were to present itself.

Some people aspire for greatness and others for mediocrity, which also plays out with the concept of whether or not they might have achieved some kind of wisdom in their life, if they are lucky enough to live long enough to achieve, too.


For sure, put in measures to lessen the likelihood of getting kidnapped.... because statistics are that many of would be pretty damned fucked in such a scenario... one of the reasons for decent opsec and trying to avoid shady people, which is not always clear to know which folks are more shady than others, but sometimes we will witness some pretty clear signs about the level of shadiness of some people who we have met in life, and some of us have likely met some people who make us a bit nervous in terms of their trustworthiness or what they might do in desperate (or maybe not even very desperate, but greedy) times.

Funny that mindrust wants to ascribe tension and emotions to us.

Why the fuck would we be emotional or tense when we are 2x higher in price than the price that mindrust sold all of his BTC?

Surely, many of us are prepared for either UP or DOWN, and of course, not everyone is equally prepared for either UP or down, but there are NOT too many who sold their whole stash of BTC at $4,500-ish  (that's a rare duck..... i.e mindrust).... and especially after spending a couple of years building such a BTC position and then now trying to retroactively justify that erratic spontaneous behavior and trying to live with that level of mistaken emotional decision.. and still having some hopium that the mistake from 3 months ago might not have been so much of a mistake?

grasping... grasping.. grasping...

while asserting that we, here (the other ones of us) are supposedly the emotional ones in this situation.    There tends to be a lot less emotion when, at least, your BTC holdings are largely in profits.... What a puzzle.... What a puzzle...., mindrust?  

You are not going to be making a lot of friends with those kinds of roach-like talking-points.

Is your memory that bad mindrust in regards to the nonsense of the no coiner talking-points?

Sure, you might hold a bit more than 1 coin, so you are not technically a no coiner,  but your mindset still seems to pretty damned close to the mindset of a disgruntled no coiner.

You were not quite ready to buy that one coin, yet.  

So, probably, you should just sell it because you don't really believe in that coin anyhow, or at least you seem to be believing in the dollar a bit more than bitcoin...  go figure out that muddle.

Sure there are some people who want freebies, but you should not be believing spin bullshit.

People would like to be able to have some fairness, including fairness in opportunities, and that does not necessarily mean taking away from the rich.  I was not arguing that rich fucks should not be able to bail out their loser kids, even if I had been making an attempt to describe that poor people are going to have more challenges.. sure I had been stating the obvious in some ways.

Largely, we do not seem to disagree, kingcolex, even if we might be expressing some of the details slightly differently.

By the way, I do not believe in universal basic income.. that seems like a bullshit way to disincentivize people, but I do believe in some universal basic rights such as access to some basic health care, basic education opportunities and having a social security system that allows for retirement by a certain reasonable age and things like that.

Sure we might argue the fuck about some of the details and fairness of some systems and the need for incentive based systems in society, but the fact that some people might start out from better positions than others and the fact that some people might even have talents for screwing up their starting advantages are definitely going to play out in a lot of ways, and sure frequently the two homeless losers in their 50s have gotten there from quite different paths, but it may be a lot easier to attempt to at least provide some basics that everyone have access to instead of figuring out the extent to which we might be able to redeem someone in their 50s... to get them to start over again when they have actually gotten into a pretty bad place but we cannot necessarily assume if or how much they screwed up until maybe we try to get to know their history and figure out if there is some way to get someone like that to potentially be functional in some kind of way or do we just leave them in the street by the time they get to that point?  (answers are going to vary). 

I am surely not saying that I know the answers because that is not my area of specialty, but sometimes there might need to be some input from various stakeholders in the community, when trying to figure out various ways that unequal starting points are sustainable or if there are some ways to improve... and how much of a role does government have in that, and are our elected representative performing their duties in terms of building and carrying out the services of some of those social systems.

Of course, your choice, yet there are a decent number of people who are going to figure out ways tto invest in bitcoin in ways that don't really hurt them, in the even that they lose everything, but that they would also be in a decent position to potentially profit stupendously from bitcoin in the event that it does perform anywhere close to the asymmetric bet that it presents.

You may be presented with a great once in a lifetime opportunity to invest in something (referring to bitcoin) that seems to be such a great asymmetric bet, but sure, do what the fuck you want, if you believe that you are better off with gold, then that is your choice in the event that you believe that you have to choose one or another.

By the way, for more than 10 years before I got into bitcoin (I got into bitcoin in late 2013), I had been considering investing in gold in order to hedge my dollar-based investments, and surely, I considered almost all of my other investments to be dollar based or dollar dependent in some kind of way... and some of my explorations into gold was causing me to consider gold to have a bit too many dollar dependencies too and including several complications that seemed to be considerably less problematic in bitcoin in terms of various attributes that bitcoin has in regards to its scarcity, verifiability, portability, divisibility and even some of the various third party complications that come with buying/selling, securing and/or transporting gold.  So, I suppose that part of my receptivity towards bitcoin soon after learning about bitcoin came from my desire to find an investment that was kind of like gold but seeming to have fewer problems that I had perceived to have been in gold, and the case for bitcoin is way the fuck stronger than it was in late 2013 when I started or even in 2014 while I was building my initial investment into bitcoin while continuing to study it.

So, I have some troubles with how you could be so hot and heavy about gold when there are a whole hell of a lot of challenges with gold, likely little upside, and even current generation of investors are likely to increasingly learn similar things to me in terms of appreciating bitcoin to be much better than gold in a variety of ways, so in that regard, you are likely to witness ongoing gravitation of value into bitcoin and some of that value is also going to come from gold bugs either migrating over to bitcoin or at least hedging some of their investments with bitcoin instead of gold.. which seems to be happening more and more and more, even if you want to stick with that historical relic of an investment that is likely to continue to underperform bitcoin, just like it has done in the past 10 years.. gold is likely to continue underperform bitcoin in the coming 10 years... and we will see... we will see.. hopefully you figure it out rather than assuming that shininess or the fact that you can snuggle up with your gold bars or coins actually means value, when it may well be more of a burden than it is worth.. except perhaps having some gold in small portions.. just for funzies... rather than a practical long term investment hedge/compliment.

First:  The various bcash scams are not about tech, even though they frequently misleadingly frame their motivations in terms of "tech."  

If the motivations were actually based on attempts at valid tech arguments rather than the various other get-rich-quick and other scamminess distractions, then there may be some validity to those various bcashes..  

But that is NOT what is going on in terms of the various bcash promotions, even though some gullible folks and variant bcash bagholders are drug along with supporting such nonsense scam coins based on such false premises.

Second:  Poor "high caliber" you.  Feel some kind of need to engage in self-described validation.      

He is one of those spoiled brats who never really had to account for his selfish behaviors, and even though he got a light sentence, he feels that he was treated unfair and punished excessively, so he never really has figured out ways to take responsibility for his own fuckups, whether current or historical.

Poor lil roger.       Always the victim, but never his fault.

There are likely opportunities in the USA; however, let's say if some one grows up poor and with a lot of poor values being passed down by parents, then that kid is going to have to figure things out on his own and get his shit in order and that kid is not going to have as many opportunities to screw up as some rich kid that fucks around until he is thirty or forty and daddy can just put him into a position of power and influence.. etc.

So, surely starting points are relevant in regards to how much hard work might need to be carried out and still very difficult odds, yet i would still say if you are dealt a rough hand, then surely you have to figure out how you want to proceed by attempting to figure out some way to get ahead and be self-sufficient, or sure it can also be tempting to party every day like it is 1999.. and there are some folks who choose to do that and seem to have few if any goals (beyond just saying that they wished that there circumstances were better.. and likely to even be in a worse situation if they continue to party for the next 10-15 years after graduating from high school (presuming graduation might be a threshold to adulthood that may or may not be accomplished) rather than buckling down).


For me, the structural unfairness does not mean that you should not attempt to find some kind of niche...  which seems to be part of what jbreher was saying... and it does not mean that you might not complain about the unfairness on a regular basis, but it seems to me that you should be attempting to figure out ways to profit in spite of such unfairnesses (whether merely perceived or real) without getting thrown in jail but sure if you want to get thrown in jail, hopefully your sentence is not very long in such a way that you are going to fuck up your whole life because you are so mad that you cannot figure out a way of attempting to work the system to your advantage without having your opportunities unnecessarily zapped from you, especially if you are already starting from a disadvantaged place..  

And, sure some rich people probably deserve to be in jail, but how the fuck is that going to help you to merely complain about it?  Maybe instead you figure out ways to maybe prosecute them or otherwise figure out ways that you can get by and support yourself at the same time that your goals might be to fight towards the improvement of structural unfairnesses.  What are you going to do? and what is your role going to be within this system as it exists?  You think overthrowing it is a productive path... good luck with that, because you are going to need it... there are a lot of smart ways to proceed, and those ways may even be multi-faceted.

OMG you have 110.1 BTC...    That's way more than me.. You win...  You win... You win....  You are approaching LFC levels.... hahahahahaaha

uncle, uncle, uncle... ..


 



I prefer to hang out with peeps who are way smarter than me... that way I can learn thingies...

ow.... ow.... I give.  I give.  Stop twisting.  Ow.




I also doubt that something less than $100k or even less than $60k by 2021 or 2022 would invalidate stock to flow model.. whether we are talking about S2F regular one or S2FX... it seems crazy to suggest that if certain numbers are not reached by a certain time then the model is invalidated.

Sure there might be scenarios that invalidate the model, such as extended under performance or some other deviant price curve direction starts playing out, yet it seems quite a bit premature calling the S2F or any of its purported variants as if they were dead when they are still pretty much spot on... and hardly any deviance from the model at all... at this time.

You, Vlad2Vlad, trying to present yourself as if you have some kind of insider, secret, non-disclosable information... hahahaha.. nonsensical approaches that a lot of scammers employ.. and has not worked out too well for craigie.



If you are claiming to be associated with BSV, Craig, Calvin, or you have some kind of NDA (Non-disclosure agreement) to carrying out agendas related to those fucktwats, then you would not likely be considered to fall into any kind of bitcoin "high caliber" status.

Sure, I will concede that there are likely businesses that are built on and around bitcoin that do legitimately employ NDAs in relation to some of their products or approaches to business, so not all NDAs are scammy in and of themselves, but any NDA associated with BSV, craig or calvin would likely be presumed to be anything other than  "high caliber" since those diptwats have even been engaging in tactics that seem to be hostile to open source culture (and of course bitcoin), claiming property rights, filing something similar to SLAPP (strategic lawsuits against participation) lawsuits to attempt to threaten and quell speech, open ideas or people who truthfully proclaim them as fraudster/scammers.. and since craigie, calvin and their agents behind the scenes seem to be so fucking incompetent, they have NOT been very successful in their multi-faceted approaches to abuse systems, mislead, scamming and threatening people, even though some of their bag holding followers seem to appreciate their attempts to pumpen the quasi-incompetent (can't hardly get listed on any legitimate exchange) BSV attack-vector product (which product also has a potential side-benefit of allowing for a possible exit scam for craigie and calvinie if they were able to get a hardfork to forken over the possession of all of satoshi's coins, and any other unmoved coins, and even the dumbass BSV users (bagholders) seem to be not so dumb to fall for that extreme scammy ploy).  

I bolded my statement above, presuming that you are referring to my "most of us" proclamation.

So largely what I am asserting is that most established forum members who regularly post in the forum are not really into shitcoins... I don't need to name any...  Yeah, there are a few retarded established forum members, too, and they will frequently show themselves as shitcoiners, but many (if not most) of the regular and established forum members are not into shitcoins or into scams... 

Sure if you are a shitcoiner, hv_ , then you might want to presume that there are a lot more shitcoiners out there and a lot more scammers out there, like you.  You have shown yourself as both a shitcoiner and a scammer for a long time with your ongoing nonsensical history of posting baloney about BIG blocks and supporting the various scam forks, at least bcash and bcash sv... so sure, good luck with your presumption, if you really have one, that there are a lot more members like you than actually exist...

I will stick with my own presumption, and I am NOT going to get into personality nonsense with someone like you who seems to relish in twisting reasonable points into gibberish.. It is not necessary for me to back up my point anymore than I already have, and probably I entertained your question way more than it deserved, too... hahahahahaha... Your lucky day.       

---

I am not saying that because if you want to show that there are some folks here in the forum engaging in group think because they tend to be skeptical of shitcoins or various attacks on bitcon such as bcash forks, then you have the burden to show such proof of group think... sure go ahead with your proof.. it is likely to come off as a bunch of gibberish, but I am not going to accept your nonsensical conclusory assertion that there is group think going on without some kind of meaningful evidence (which would be a need for both facts and logic... good luck with that).

The face mask situation and various precautions against a virus remains a bit more of a complicated question, and seems to be a far from adequate attempt at an analogical way of arguing your nonsensical points to the extent that you have any points.  Is that what you were trying to do, an analogical argument?  lame at best, right?

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

These laddered shorts may not have gone very well, and if you did not lose all of your money, you may well have lost a considerable amount.  Call me a party poop, but it tends NOT to be a good idea to be fucking around with leverage, because sooner or later it is quite likely to bite you in the ass and take all your profits and potentially your principle too.

But you said that you were employing good risk management, but what happened to you?

 Where's the reporting on the subsequent trades?   

So, my point is that trading and profits might be all fine and dandy in terms of locking in ongoing profits, and maybe you make profits on 50 trades in a row (or maybe 40 out of 50 trades are profitable), and then all those profits can get taken away on a set of bad trades (especially if leveraged) and the price keeps moving against you trade after trade after trade... right?  Is that what happened?

So, even if the trades did not work out and you have to start over, or you are back to your principle, are there any lessons learned?  

Some folks bet in both directions, but hey that does not seem to be your strategy, but instead a kind of Martingale method, which might work until it does not.

Of course, using leverage complicates matters, too... but hey, if someone can consistently make profits and even stack some sats away so that he is only playing with house money that could be great to keep building profits, but the timeline might become a long one, too, and if all of the house money is lost, at some point because the trades keep going against you, then is the trader tempted to dig into his stacked away principle and the stacked away profits?

Maybe I don't really understand the difference or if there was any significant difference in the change between S2F and S2FX... so pardon me for my ignorance on such change.

I personally just see a bunch of lines and shit, and I don't get caught upon any specific numbers whether we are going to get to $50k, or $100k or $288k or some other number on or before the end of 2021 or maybe a bit extended into 2022... I mean, why get caught up in specifics? 

Who the fuck knows specifics?  The specifics of BTC overblowing the price expectations by 3x to 5x never really changed my own personal strategy very much in 2017, so I doubt that my strategy is going to change very much in any of the scenarios because let's say that we only make it to $30k, but I had been selling small amounts of BTC all the way up, and then maybe I would be a little pissed because I could have sold more BTC, but I was holding onto most of my BTC because I was expecting somewhere between $50k and $500k...

That's on me, if I create my own disappointment, because I better damned well be prepared that BTC prices might not go to somewhere between $50k and $500k and I better have a plan that I can follow that allows me to financially and psychologically be prepared for such ultimate under performance of king daddy.

I personally think that I am prepared for underperformance or over performance... so I don't plan to scream at PlanB in either event whether he fulfills his sorcery status or not.. and really I don't take him as trying to be a sorcerer. He is merely a quant that tries to put some numbers on a graph and speculates regarding the extent to which he can speculate on the future direction based on where the numbers have already been, while of course also trying to understand the asset in which he is studying in terms of its unique nature of its supply issuance regime.

So, if BTC underperforms, maybe I end up not selling very many BTC, but if BTC overperforms and goes shooting up way before I expected (within the model or not), then maybe I am still nervous about how much BTC to sell because I have already become rich by just selling mediocre amounts, so does it change my plan very much?  Sure, maybe I will want to lock in some profits by selling a bit more, but I am still nervous about my reaction in that kind of direction too... because then what am I going to do with all of the additional fiat?  There might be a question about that, too.  So does not hurt to plan for these various scenarios in order to perhaps be a little less like deers in the headlights when it comes (in the event that it does come and whether you give it a 20% chance or some other odds that might be considered to have a questionable basis).

Yes... We will see Biodom, and I doubt that we are going to stop arguing about it or even stop saying "I told you so" from time to time, even when neither of us might have said anything.