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Question: Nov. 18 closing price:
<$35,000 - 4 (9.1%)
$35,000-$35,500 - 1 (2.3%)
$35,500-$36,000 - 4 (9.1%)
$36,000-$36,500 - 4 (9.1%)
$36,500-$37,000 - 4 (9.1%)
$37,000-$37,500 - 3 (6.8%)
$37,500-$38,000 - 4 (9.1%)
$38,000-$38,500 - 5 (11.4%)
$38,500-$39,000 - 2 (4.5%)
$39,000-$39,500 - 1 (2.3%)
$39,500-$40,000 - 0 (0%)
>$40,000 - 12 (27.3%)
Total Voters: 44

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26313356 times)
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JohnBitCo
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June 14, 2020, 05:31:12 AM

"I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume." -- Satoshi
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June 14, 2020, 06:12:08 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

@JJG

You have my word, I will NEVER go full mindrust. I’m not selling anything until at least $30,000.

I understand that I have harassed you several times previously, but this time, it was OOM cautioning (harassing) you NOT to go full mindrust, not me.

Look:  Here's the evidence:

[edited out]

OK, but promise me/us that you won't go mindrust if bitcoin temporarily tanks again next time  Tongue  Cheesy
Do something good to yourself today as well! You deserve no less, you know...

Seems to me that Oom is going all soppy and sentimental, mererly because wifey left him with the four kids to bond for a few days.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I was going to make a similar response to Oom, but I noticed that he seemed a bit too far gone in emotion for any kind of attempt at reason, so I was thinking that sometimes just gotta let these emotional thingie=ma-jiggies ride... #nohomo.  

So, sure, my inclination of thought is that you are not likely to go full mindrust, but I am never going to take those kinds of proclamations for granted, even if you scream until you are blue in the face.. sometimes things can just happen, and if you snort a bit too much coke one night, you never know... you could start getting soppy feelings at the wrong time... which sometimes happens and could happen to any of us, humans..... so, never say never.  You might regret saying it... .  hahahahahaha   Wink

Yeah, never say never, indeed.
I wasn't really harrassing, however, LFC seemed to be bored out on the recent price development to me, so i wanted to make sure he doesn't accidentally develop  onset of morbus mindrust, so i tried to motivate him to swear to himself again, well... not to sell the next bottom, haha  Cheesy
This was completely separate from telling him to do something good for himself, and yes, yesterday i built up emotions about the (my) important things in life, which are a lot in the family range of things. Add that to realizing (again) that we all deserve better than we do (most of the time) but almost constantly fail to deliver even small amounts of better to ourselves. At least the most of us. With my kind memory problems you'll start realizing many of the same things repeatedly, which is not something i could not also love, despite additionally reminding me of my lil inability  Wink
Have a nice day, WOs  Grin

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June 14, 2020, 08:57:53 AM


snip

Two tips:

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
Plausible deniability -- A $5 wrench is too damn cheap.

Hey man, spot on on your last security comments  Wink
Can you please point me out something good to read on the plausible deniability topic? Thanks!
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June 14, 2020, 09:16:26 AM

~... which sometimes happens and could happen to any of us, humans..... so, never say never.  You might regret saying it... .  hahahahahaha   Wink

United States humans,
as with the rest of the world,
art-officially.


#haiku
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June 14, 2020, 09:41:03 AM



https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1271468034931036160
https://twitter.com/SCAONTIERLLP
https://twitter.com/DanDarkPill/status/1271475981014888448?s=20

https://twitter.com/fluffypony/status/1271471545790222336
Quote
Just so we're clear, Craig Wright has just openly admitted (via his lawyers) to be the guy that stole 80k BTC from Mtgox. The screenshots below show the court documents indicating the "1Feex" address is where the stolen Mtgox funds were sent. What do you have to say, @CalvinAyre?

just lol

Why not first "recover" funds on BSv chain that he controls? He must be in pure desperation, last gasps for air, before he looses Kleiman case.

Yes, why not? Maybe cause Segwit coin is not BitCoin?
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June 14, 2020, 09:57:12 AM

Quote
Yes, why not? Maybe cause Segwit coin is not BitCoin?

Haha funny
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June 14, 2020, 11:47:24 AM
Last edit: June 14, 2020, 12:23:45 PM by AlcoHoDL
Merited by cAPSLOCK (10), El duderino_ (8), Karartma1 (7), gentlemand (6), fillippone (3), JayJuanGee (1), witcher_sense (1), ivomm (1), Toxic2040 (1), OutOfMemory (1), Dunkelheit667 (1), rolling (1), machasm (1)

Two tips:

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
Plausible deniability -- A $5 wrench is too damn cheap.

Hey man, spot on on your last security comments  Wink
Can you please point me out something good to read on the plausible deniability topic? Thanks!

Hi, I would point you to Wikipedia, but I just checked it and it's too general, too long (as if this isn't...), not an easy read.

Plausible deniability, as it applies here, is the ability to plausibly deny ownership of your Bitcoin when required to reveal your stash (legally, or by force).

Case 1 (legally): You cross the border to another country, and, upon inspection, customs find your Trezor in your briefcase, or find a wallet s/w on your phone. They may force you to reveal information about your stash. In fact, there are laws that make it a punishable crime not to reveal your passwords in such cases, and if you don't, you may be arrested and detained. What do you do? Can you just say "guys, it's empty!"? They will say "OK, show us!" How can you circumvent this?

Case 2 (by force): You are a coiner. You tell about your coins to friends and relatives. All in good faith. They are impressed by your newfound wealth. They are so excited that they tell their friends about you and how smart you are. Word spreads. You end up being kidnapped and forced (by torture) to reveal your stash. Can you just say "guys, it's empty!"? I don't think so. How can you circumvent this?

Deniability won't help you in such cases, unless it's paired with plausibility. With Trezor (and Ledger, etc.), in addition to the 24 words that make up your seed, you are allowed to enter another (25th) passphrase (word, sentence, any alphanumeric string). This will result in a wallet (key) that is totally different to the one without the 25th passphrase. In fact, when you connect your Trezor and are asked for the 25th passphrase, you can type anything you want, and it will lead to different valid wallets, depending on what you typed. In this way, you can have (in fact, you already have) an infinite number of wallets, all of which have your seed in common, but are cryptographically unrelated, in the sense that access to one such wallet is completely isolated from any other wallet.

The central idea that you must understand, is that you already have all these wallets, whether you want them or not. There is no switch that you can use to enable or disable a wallet. It's already there. Think of this as driving on the highway, and there are infinite number of exits. Your 24-word seed is the highway, and the 25th passphrase determines the exit you want to take. The exits are all there, an infinite number of them, and they all lead to valid wallets. Of course, all these wallets will be empty when you visit them (well, not necessarily, but that's another discussion). The highway itself is also a wallet (no passphrase entered). This is why it's not advisable to use a seed without a 25th passphrase. Because, in this case, if someone finds your seed, he can enter your highway, and if your coins are on that highway, he can steal them from you. But if you use a 25th passphrase, the highway will be empty, and containing an infinite number of exits. Which exit to take? He needs to know the 25th passphrase, which he won't. Your coins are safe.

How is all this related to plausible deniability? You can use the 25th passphrase to plausibly deny ownership of your coins. You set up your Trezor as normal, writing down and backing up your 24 seed words. What you then do, is transfer a very small amount of Bitcoin (say, 0.1 BTC) to the wallet without a 25th passphrase (the highway). You put that 0.1 BTC there. Then, you reconnect your Trezor, but this time you enter a 25th passphrase, let's call it {normal_pass}. You end up on a different, empty wallet. In there, you transfer a bigger amount of Bitcoin, large enough to persuade someone that it's everything you've got, let's say, 10 BTC. You don't transfer all your stash there, just that 10 BTC. You then reconnect your Trezor, but this time you enter a very strong 25th passphrase, let's call it {really_strong_pass}. You end up on yet another empty wallet. In that wallet you transfer the remaining of your stash, say, 100 BTC.

What have you achieved by doing the above? With just one seed (written on paper and backed up) and 2 passphrases in your head, you have spread your stash in the following three different, cryptographically unrelated wallets (i.e., having access to one of the wallets does not grant access to any of the other wallets, and does not prove that you are using any other wallet):

No passphrase: 0.1 BTC
{normal_pass}: 10 BTC
{really_strong_pass}: 100 BTC

Case 1: "Sir, can you please unlock your wallet for us?" -- "Why?" -- "We want to see how many coins you have." -- "But, isn't this private information?" -- "Yes, but Law XYZ, that was passed after 9/11, to combat terrorist activities, gives us authority to do whatever we want!" -- "Oh, hmmm, I'm not comfortable with this..." You play difficult, you ask to see the law, trying to stall them. After a while, and when the pressure on you becomes too much, you say "OK, I don't like this at all, but here you are." You connect your Trezor to your laptop, and just enter the PIN (no 25th passphrase). You have just entered the "highway" wallet, which contains 0.1 BTC. "There you go, motherfuckers! Fuck you!", you scream! They say, "Sir, I'm afraid we'll have to confiscate your wallet and the coins." -- "Sure," you reply, "take it and stick it up your bum, you fucks!" You hand them your Trezor and they let you pass. When you arrive safely at your destination, you simply enter your seed to any wallet you want (Trezor, Ledger, Mycelium), and you log-in with the two "25th" passphrases, confirming what mathematics have guaranteed for you, which is that your 110 BTC are there, untouched, waiting for you.

Case 2: You are tied to a chair, and a big guy asks you for your Trezor PIN, "or else I'm going to cut your fingers one by one!" You try to resist at first, but quickly reveal the PIN. They see the 0.1 BTC. But they're smart. They know you have more! They begin to torture you, at which point you have to be prepared to take some beating and even lose a finger! You have to resist as much as you can. When you can't take it anymore, and you're screaming and crying like a little girl, all humiliated and seemingly completely wrecked, you reveal {normal_pass} to them. They enter the 25th passphrase and see your shiny 10 BTC in there. "Gotcha!" they shout! They transfer the funds, destroy (or take with them) your Trezor, and leave. The next day, you enter your seed in another wallet, enter {really_strong_pass} and confirm that your 100 BTC are there, untouched, waiting for you.

The above are idealized scenarios. You can be sure that, if you go out and about boasting to colleagues, friends and family that you own 100+ BTC, the thieves will cut your fingers, arms, legs, and even your dick (if you have one), before they get your entire stash! Plausible deniability is a great tool to protect us and our Bitcoin, but we also need to exercise common sense and maximise our opsec. No need to go out boasting about how much Bitcoin we have. A fool and his BTC are soon parted. Don't be a fool.

That's the best way I can describe plausible deniability, while keeping my typing and word count to reasonable levels. I think I can compete with JJG on this one! Anyway, I hope it helps you, Karartma1, or anyone else out there.

Stay safe!

Edit: Corrected some typos.
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June 14, 2020, 12:30:32 PM

AlcoHoDL, your very last post is probably worth a thousand of JJG's. JayJuanGee no offence here  Grin
Good, then! you got my last 7 merits and my complete admiration for your very informative post.
I guess I can do that with any software wallet and not only with Trezors and such. I will try it on Electrum as soon as I can install it again.

So plausible deniability is only one of the main rings which make our Bitcoin galaxy secure.

Thank you very much Smiley

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June 14, 2020, 12:31:24 PM



Yes, I give 80% to no 100K in 2021 and, hence, invalidation of S2F model, but not S2FX model.


Hang on, his S2F model never showed 100k in 2021. It showed 100k by 2024. That is vastly different. Sure if it followed 2017 pattern, peak might be 2021, but PlanB never claimed that. At least not to my knowledge.
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June 14, 2020, 12:40:49 PM

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June 14, 2020, 12:53:05 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (3)

Sunday haiku now.
My first one since weeks again,
but not the last one.

Thank you AlcoHodl,
For this brilliant post of yours.
Here, have a merit!

At home with my kids,
refreshing the WO thread
in a hurry now.

 Grin
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June 14, 2020, 01:01:25 PM

AlcoHoDL, your very last post is probably worth a thousand of JJG's. JayJuanGee no offence here  Grin
Good, then! you got my last 7 merits and my complete admiration for your very informative post.
I guess I can do that with any software wallet and not only with Trezors and such. I will try it on Electrum as soon as I can install it again.

So plausible deniability is only one of the main rings which make our Bitcoin galaxy secure.

Thank you very much Smiley

Glad my post helped, Karartma1, it ended up much longer than I expected. Got carried away...

Yes, by all means, try it with s/w wallets, and also with Trezors, Ledgers, etc. You don't have to transfer funds, just enter various "25th" passphrases and observe all those wallets that belong to you and most users don't know they exist. Be absolutely sure you are comfortable with the entire process, and fully understand it, before transferring any coins. Once you get the hang of it, it will be very easy to manage. It's more or less "set and forget", with the occasional visit to your wallets every so often, so that your brain's neurons keep firing up and don't forget the passphrases.
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June 14, 2020, 01:01:59 PM

Have just posted in-depth analysis of current bulls vs bears scenario, based on Daily and Weekly charts, as well as 4hr and Monthly charts, for anyone interested:









Overview (TL:DR) - 60-40 bullish bias likely to be reduced to 55-45 bullish bias next week

  • While in the past Week I've been 60-40 bullish bias overview, closing the Weekly candle on a TD on a Red 1 would shift this to 55-45 slight bullish bias.
  • A move below $9K (on a Red 2 candle moving below a Red 1) would give me a 60-40 bearish bias, as a strong sell signal would be confirmed.
  • A break below $8.8K (bull flag structure) would confirm a 70-30 bearish bias, with the target of around an $8K Bitcoin to the 100 & 200 Day MAs.

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June 14, 2020, 01:14:22 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)



Yes, I give 80% to no 100K in 2021 and, hence, invalidation of S2F model, but not S2FX model.


Hang on, his S2F model never showed 100k in 2021. It showed 100k by 2024. That is vastly different. Sure if it followed 2017 pattern, peak might be 2021, but PlanB never claimed that. At least not to my knowledge.



From the first article, which I believe PlanB adjusted upwards later on:

Quote
The predicted market value for bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000. That is quite spectacular. I guess time will tell and we will probably know one or two years after the halving, in 2020 or 2021. A great out of sample test of this hypothesis and model.

Link to the other two articles and various podcast appearances:
https://100trillionusd.github.io/
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June 14, 2020, 02:45:30 PM

hm, danger of that bear flag getting activated on lower timeframes. But ascending triangle on longer still good.
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June 14, 2020, 03:12:27 PM

Good morn Bitcoinland.
Nine three seven three dollars
(Bitcoinaverage).

It's bouncing along
Going basic'ly sideways
Yet another day.
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June 14, 2020, 03:32:31 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

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June 14, 2020, 03:43:07 PM

Being locked up at home is definitely affecting a lot of people.

I think you'll find that one flew off the rails long before now.



My cousin, Mad Chicken Breath McDougal, has been carefully observing the livers of sheep and peckings of roosters and informs me with unequivocal clarity that this will happen:

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June 14, 2020, 04:06:22 PM

Damn, almost 48h in a range so tight no order of mine got execd (instead of between 10 and 100 per day).
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June 14, 2020, 04:13:39 PM
Last edit: June 14, 2020, 04:32:11 PM by Biodom



Yes, I give 80% to no 100K in 2021 and, hence, invalidation of S2F model, but not S2FX model.


Hang on, his S2F model never showed 100k in 2021. It showed 100k by 2024. That is vastly different. Sure if it followed 2017 pattern, peak might be 2021, but PlanB never claimed that. At least not to my knowledge.

Oh, yes, he did show 100K in 2021...
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1247580045331365888
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1267214325661433856
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1256156555009036290
interpretation in https://digitalik.net/btc/
Basically, S2F shows that price "should be" at 100K already. Granted, it took 6-18 mo before to get to the theoretical price (and exceed it), but if it takes an extra 4 years (a full cycle), then there is no much value in S2F model specifically vs 4-year cycle based models and numerology of apparent diminishing % appreciation, etc.

....and many other entries, like on this podcast (the confusion is S2F vs S2FX, and in podcast he mostly talks about S2FX):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2cP8k_QUaw
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