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1041  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2014, 12:18:48 AM
I don't see any significant amount of Wall Street money anywhere near bitcoin before some serious regulation...
Maybe some small, high-risk funds, but nothing serious (tens of billions or something like that).
They always play safe

False. Wall Street will jump on anything that can be pumped, especially if a bunch of silly derivatives can be attached to the underlying asset.

Get ready for a year of record breaking artificially high prices.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1042  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 11:56:08 PM
Once wall street owns 90% of all bitcoins, what's the plan? Hard fork? Switch to PeerCoin?  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1043  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 10:45:38 PM
One question related to those funds is if some of them might belong to people who committed no crimes (or at least have not been convicted of them). I'm have little doubt (in fact, I pretty much know for sure) that there's precedent for the cops just keeping the whole lot but still.
I'm still wondering how they got the coins. If he's claiming them back, it suggests he didn't hand them over (i.e. as part of deal). So, weak password?

Maybe no password. If he didn't have the sense to have it distributed through multiple offline wallets with some kind of auto-drain for at least some of them...

Feds don't seem to be doing that either.

Didn't the feds capture him in a library while he was using his laptop? If they got the laptop while it was on, they could easily copy the wallet files. As for the password, maybe he had it stored in a txt file somewhere on his laptop?
1044  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 06:54:39 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year

Over 3% and trending up.  Shocked Undecided Shocked
1045  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 02:29:28 AM

And then, since your definition is based on someone's calculation to mislead who is the final arbtrar of intent?  


The court is the final arbitrator, you moron.

My definition is also shared by the court.  Wink

There are higher 'courts' than the ones you speak of Wink

Which court disagrees with my definition of fraud?

How Jarosaw defined fraud:
Quote from: Walsoraj
Anything calculated to mislead others is fraudulent.

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraud

Fraud is a deception deliberately practiced in order to secure unfair or unlawful gain (adjectival form fraudulent; to defraud is the verb). As a legal construct, fraud is both a civil wrong (i.e., a fraud victim may sue the fraud perpetrator to avoid the fraud and/or recover monetary compensation) and a criminal wrong (i.e., a fraud perpetrator may be prosecuted and imprisoned by governmental authorities). Defrauding people or organizations of money or valuables is the usual purpose of fraud, but it sometimes instead involves obtaining benefits without actually depriving anyone of money or valuables, such as obtaining a drivers license by way of false statements made in an application for the same.

A hoax is a distinct concept that involves deception without the intention of gain or of damaging or depriving the victim.

And, your point?

Calculated implies deliberation. Misleading others is a form of deception. So, my definition, if anything, is too narrow.

Idiot.
1046  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 02:22:17 AM

And then, since your definition is based on someone's calculation to mislead who is the final arbtrar of intent?  


The court is the final arbitrator, you moron.

My definition is also shared by the court.  Wink

There are higher 'courts' than the ones you speak of Wink

Which court disagrees with my definition of fraud?
1047  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 02:15:02 AM

And then, since your definition is based on someone's calculation to mislead who is the final arbtrar of intent?  


The court is the final arbitrator, you moron.

My definition is also shared by the court.  Wink
1048  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 01:49:24 AM
Shit if crypto was regulated I think half the users of btce would go to jail.

On the horizon. MtGox already has an agent to accept service in the States. How do you think the CoinLab suit got started?

I would be surprised if the SEC isn't currently preparing suits. MtGox is likely providing the SEC with trade data just like it provides ID data to FINCEN.
1049  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 01:22:35 AM
Examples of fraudulent market manipulation:

Quote
Pools: "Agreements, often written, among a group of traders to delegate authority to a single manager to trade in a specific stock for a specific period of time and then to share in the resulting profits or losses."[4]
Churning: "When a trader places both buy and sell orders at about the same price. The increase in activity is intended to attract additional investors, and increase the price."
Stock Bashing: "This scheme is usually orchestrated by savvy online message board posters (a.k.a. "Bashers") who make up false and/or misleading information about the target company in an attempt to get shares for a cheaper price. This activity, in most cases, is conducted by posting libelous posts on multiple public forums. The perpetrators sometimes work directly for unscrupulous Investor Relations firms who have convertible notes that convert for more shares the lower the bid or ask price is; thus the lower these Bashers can drive a stock price down by trying to convince shareholders they have bought a worthless security, the more shares the Investor Relations firm receives as compensation. Immediately after the stock conversion is complete and shares are issued to the Investor Relations firm, consultant, attorney or similar party, the basher/s then become friends of the company and move quickly to ensure they profit on a classic Pump & Dump scheme to liquidate their ill gotten shares. (see P&D)"
Pump and dump: "This scheme is generally part of a more complex grand plan of market manipulation on the targeted security. The Perpetrators (Usually stock promoters) convince company affiliates and large position non-affiliates to release shares into a free trading status as "Payment" for services for promoting the security. Instead of putting out legitimate information about a company the promoter sends out bogus e-mails (the "Pump") to millions of unsophisticated investors (Sometimes called "Retail Investors") in an attempt to drive the price of the stock and volume to higher points. After she accomplishes both, the promoter sells her shares (the "Dump") and the stock price falls like a stone, taking all the duped investors money with it."
Runs: "When a group of traders create activity or rumors in order to drive the price of a security up." An example is the Guinness share-trading fraud of the 1980s. In the US, this activity is usually referred to as painting the tape.[5] Runs may also occur when trader(s) are attempting to drive the price of a certain share down, although this is rare. (see Stock Bashing)"
Ramping (the market): "Actions designed to artificially raise the market price of listed securities and to give the impression of voluminous trading, in order to make a quick profit."[6]
Wash trade: "Selling and repurchasing the same or substantially the same security for the purpose of generating activity and increasing the price".
Bear raid: "Attempting to push the price of a stock down by heavy selling or short selling."[7]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_manipulation

LOL. All of the above are regular activities in bitcoin land.
1050  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 01:04:08 AM
Interesting debate guys regarding market manipulation.  I think aminorex's definition below is a good one (regardless of one's views on the ethics of such an activity):

Market manipulation is generally understood to mean trading for purposes of effecting a price impact, not otherwise in the interest of the trader.  For example, sham sales, in which the counterparties have pooled resources, or one party takes both roles, so that transactions occur at their preferred prices, can be used to create a trap for speculators, who trade at prices not determined by market forces, but by the collusion of the manipulator(s).  

According to this definition, I believe that market manipulation is indeed happening.  The next question is "is this wrong"?  vdcc says this is fraud:

Quote from: vdcc
No violence, but fraud yes. If you pump/dump coins (or even fake volume and trades) for financial gain, then you are defrauding honest traders.

I'm not convinced, but I'd like to hear further arguments.  Here's what I think is fraud:

A whale calls up the owner of an exchange and, says "I want to put up a 5,000 BTC ask wall to scare the fish into selling to me for cheaper, but I don't actually want to risk a bigger whale buying all my coins.  Can I pay you 50 BTC to ensure that if someone tries to buy my wall that your trading engine encounters 'technical difficulties'?"  If the owner agrees, this is fraud and we have laws that would apply in such a situation.  

But if two colluding whales buy and sell to each other on the open market to try and make it appear there is more volume at a price higher or lower than what they believe to be the market price, then could not one argue that this is simply "strategy"?  Is not everyone still playing by the same rules?


Your concept of fraud is stupidly narrow. Anything calculated to mislead others is fraudulent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_manipulation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securities_fraud

*edit*

And yes, bitcoins fit the definition of a security.

Quote
Shavers sought to dismiss the charges, arguing that Bitcoins were not the equivalent of money, were not regulated by the United States, and that the BTCST investments did not meet the definition of “securities” to confer jurisdiction with the Commission.  The Commission disputed Shavers’ contentions, arguing that the BTCST investments  were both investment contracts and notes and thus constituted securities.

The Securities Act of 1933 defines a “security” as “any note, stock, treasury stock, security future, security-based swap, bond…[or] investment contract…” 15 U.S.C. § 77b.  An “investment contract” is considered to be a catch-all category for products that do not meet the exact contours of a note, stock, or other specified form of indebtedness.  As federal securities laws have remained largely unchanged since their enactment in the 1930s and 1940s, courts have increasingly had to determine whether a product constituted an investment contract.  The seminal case on this subject is S.E.C. v. W.J. Howey Co., 328 U.S. 293 (1946).  In Howey, the U.S. Supreme Court set forth a three-part test to answer this question, holding that

An investment contract is any contract, transaction, or scheme involving (1) an investment of money, (2) in a common enterprise, (3) with the expectation that profits will be derived from the efforts of the promoter or a third party.

In analyzing the Howey factors, Judge Mazzant first found that the BTCST investments constituted an investment of money, noting that Bitcoins could not only be used as money to buy goods and services but also could be exchanged for conventional currencies.  Next , Judge Mazzant determined that there existed a common enterprise since the investors were dependent on Shavers’ purported expertise in Bitcoin markets and local connections, and investors were promised a substantial return from these efforts.  Finally, there was clearly an expectation that profits would be derived through Shavers’ efforts, as investors were induced to invest through the promise of the astronomical returns.  In short, Judge Mazzant concluded that the BTCST investments satisfied the Howey test and could be considered securities.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jordanmaglich/2013/08/07/court-green-lights-bitcoin-lawsuit-rules-investments-constitute-securities/
1051  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 12:14:20 AM
If major retailers, such as Overstock.com, intend to immediately convert bitcoins to fiat, then is spending bitcoins equivalent to selling on an exchange? If so, there is little incentive to spend because it adversely impacts your investment, unless sufficient new fiat is flowing into the exchanges to offset your bitcoin purchases.

2014 could turn out to be a very bad year for bulls if too many large merchants decide to accept bitcoin.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Isn't what BitPay does with its BTC more important then what Overstock does with it? Or maybe we can start a whole new group of activists who support merchants who don't instantly covert their BTC to fiat at the POS.

Well, the point is that more merchants accepting bitcoin is typically viewed as bullish. I disagree if the merchants intend to immediately convert back to fiat.

exposure, and increasing the ease of purchasing goods with bitcoin is never bad. People might skip buying 5 dollars min fee prepaid credit cards and or ukash and just use bitcoin for online purchases.

Yea, but my point is the price goes down if too many large merchants are immediately converting. Bitcoin can probably handle Overstock. But what if Amazon, BestBuy, Newegg and others all decide to accept bitcoin in 2014? That would require MASSIVE amounts of new fiat to continually flow into the exchanges to keep the price from plummeting. Possible, sure. Likely, no.
1052  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2013, 12:07:34 AM
If major retailers, such as Overstock.com, intend to immediately convert bitcoins to fiat, then is spending bitcoins equivalent to selling on an exchange? If so, there is little incentive to spend because it adversely impacts your investment, unless sufficient new fiat is flowing into the exchanges to offset your bitcoin purchases.

2014 could turn out to be a very bad year for bulls if too many large merchants decide to accept bitcoin.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Isn't what BitPay does with its BTC more important then what Overstock does with it? Or maybe we can start a whole new group of activists who support merchants who don't instantly covert their BTC to fiat at the POS.

Well, the point is that more merchants accepting bitcoin is typically viewed as bullish. I disagree if the merchants intend to immediately convert back to fiat. Overstock has already announced it intends to do this to avoid price volatility.
1053  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2013, 11:56:14 PM
If major retailers, such as Overstock.com, intend to immediately convert bitcoins to fiat, then is spending bitcoins equivalent to selling on an exchange? If so, there is little incentive to spend because it adversely impacts your investment, unless sufficient new fiat is flowing into the exchanges to offset your purchases.

Ironically, 2014 could turn out to be a very bad year for bulls if too many large merchants decide to accept bitcoin.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1054  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2013, 12:18:12 AM
Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  Shocked

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either. Wink

Everyone should have been drunk at least once in their life.

I'm not drunk often btw (last time was a year ago) but I do like a drink now and then.

My drinking pals call me the absinthe fish.
1055  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 29, 2013, 09:46:01 PM
Gox has gone full Doge. Never go full Doge.
1056  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 29, 2013, 05:11:43 AM
My guess turned out right, Dogecoin is actually more hyped than Bitcoin right now: http://www.redditlist.com/

Dogecoin #55

Bitcoin #60

I'm still shaking.

I've always believed that the rise of a poorly conceived alt, such as LiteCoin, would reveal how stupid the entire crypto scene is and that it is driven purely by greed and price manipulation. But if Dogecoin turns out to be the prick to Bitcoin's bubble... That would be an even greater cosmic joke.

Can't wait.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I'd honestly see LTC doing this instead of DGC.

Think small, act big. That's all I am trying too say. 400K Dogecoins each month, with an outlook at a future price of (wild guess) $1,40 each. Sign me up. Oh no wait, I already did.

Blasphemy! May you and all of your kin incur the wrath of the great Doge!
1057  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 29, 2013, 05:05:27 AM
My guess turned out right, Dogecoin is actually more hyped than Bitcoin right now: http://www.redditlist.com/

Dogecoin #55

Bitcoin #60

I'm still shaking.

I've always believed that the rise of a poorly conceived alt, such as LiteCoin, would reveal how stupid the entire crypto scene is and that it is driven purely by greed and price manipulation. But if Dogecoin turns out to be the prick to Bitcoin's bubble... That would be an even greater cosmic joke.

Can't wait.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1058  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2013, 11:45:12 PM
Interesting read:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/28/bitcoin-is-evil/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto&_r=1&

Even more interesting though, are the comments of the readers. Am I the only one here that thinks that Krugman is paid to stand for fiat money? His arguments find me completely indifferent.

Quote
I have had and am continuing to have a dialogue with smart technologists who are very high on BitCoin — but when I try to get them to explain to me why BitCoin is a reliable store of value, they always seem to come back with explanations about how it’s a terrific medium of exchange. Even if I buy this (which I don’t, entirely), it doesn’t solve my problem. And I haven’t been able to get my correspondents to recognize that these are different questions.


Heh... probably talking to the wrong people (intentionally that is...). Grin

Yea, an intelligent and honest bitcoiner would explain to Krugman that bitcoin currently has value because it is the ultimate chain letter.

Sources:

  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chain_letter
  • investors driven almost solely by greed
  • early adopters dogmatically encouraging others to get in before it is too late
  • frequent usage of terms like "cashing out"
  • obsession over bitcoin's value in terms of fiat
  • observations of daily altcoin pumps
  • review of forum posts from years ago to date, documenting pumps and other methods of price manipulation of bitcoin that reflect exactly what is going on with current altcoins
  • common sense
  • Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1059  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2013, 11:29:45 PM
Don't know whether to sodl or hodl? The answer is always: buy more Dogecoin.
1060  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2013, 06:11:26 PM
Who is catching some knifes?

My teeth are waiting below $200.
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