Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[N12]

It'll be interesting to see how much pure hype can propel a fad.

[1714821050]

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[oda.krell]

Let's go through a number of points how this is going to resolve. First, if you don't mention time frames, your analysis fails already, so I'll crudely break this down into short and long term.

Short term (say, this weekend, plus next week) I see:
a) several relevant short-to-medium term trends are active, among them 6h EMA30 (that performs extremely well in my backtests on recent data). Price remains above that one, as well as the quicker hourly EMA150. For a slightly slower perspective, 1d EMA30, i.e. the 1 month trend line is a focal point: price hovers just above it. I don't want to claim it provides support, not enough volume for that, but we should see if it holds in the next days.
b) bid/ask ratio is going down right now across all exchanges. That's usually a bearish sign, but in combination with a stagnating price, it's less drastic in my experience.
c) by a (relatively) crude method I use, based on a mean of the volume-weighted price of the peak and low of the most recent price swing, we're *right* on top of that mean. Similarly to my point about 1d EMA30, that's leads to a rather unsatisfactory "it could swing either way, but the next days should resolve it one way or the other".

Long term perspective is generally even more difficult to predict. Based on how peak/correction cycles played out historically, I would be extremely surprised if we've already seen the end of the correction. Late January/Early February is more likely based on how previous corrections played out wrt time. Price targets are difficult because it all depends on whether the December 18 low was really the bottom, or just an intermediate step in a larger more forceful downtrend, or alternatively, a long drawn out decline. I still see the possibility that daily SMA100 was active as support on that crash, and the final capitulation will be higher than the low of December 18, but that's not a strong conviction I hold, at best an informed guess.

So, blah blah blah Short term - "it could swing either way, but the next days should resolve it one way or the other".
And blah blah blah Long Term - "Long term perspective is generally even more difficult to predict."

Great. Thx.  And you have the balls to slag rpietila off

Hmmm... How to answer... Oh, right:

Instead of quoting and making insults, why don't you just count your BTC and learn from them who have more??  

[Vigil]

I am starting to feel that if I go to sleep now I may miss the drop that is coming.

[ChrisML]

By the way, you guys should absolutely check out http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/. It's insane. I don't even know how they can sustain this hype. It really is at least as active as r/bitcoin.

Unexpected consequences.......Dogecoin is the perfect educational vehicle for how cryptocurrency works to people who wouldn't otherwise give a damn!

Shiiiit...that's heavy.

 

Thats why I started mining Dogecoins 

[N12]

wow

[YoYa]

By the way, you guys should absolutely check out http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/. It's insane. I don't even know how they can sustain this hype. It really is at least as active as r/bitcoin.

Unexpected consequences.......Dogecoin is the perfect educational vehicle for how cryptocurrency works to people who wouldn't otherwise give a damn!

Shiiiit...that's heavy.

 

Thats why I started mining Dogecoins  

You're picking it up wrong, even in Dogeshit, there may be some value to BTC's future. A little bit of Dogeshit on ones boot on the march to BTC adoption is but a trifle.

[Erdogan]

Long term perspective is generally even more difficult to predict. Based on how peak/correction cycles played out historically, I would be extremely surprised if we've already seen the end of the correction. Late January/Early February is more likely based on how previous corrections played out wrt time. Price targets are difficult because it all depends on whether the December 18 low was really the bottom, or just an intermediate step in a larger more forceful downtrend, or alternatively, a long drawn out decline. I still see the possibility that daily SMA100 was active as support on that crash, and the final capitulation will be higher than the low of December 18, but that's not a strong conviction I hold, at best an informed guess.

It doesn't seem like you've factored in the kinds of changes - "mass-adoption" (or at least evolving mass-awareness thanks to increased media coverage), developing services, etc. - that have led to some calling this the "tipping point" for Bitcoin. Of course it is impossible to give precise mathematical indicators in this respect but qualitatively speaking things are not the same now as they were historically. That said, the December 18 low of $450 fits well in comparison with history.

We are nowhere close to mass adoption, not by a long shot. I just spent dinner with my extended family where there were five middle aged wealthy men attending (not overly wealthy, just have nice jobs, equity in their homes,  investments, et cetera). Not a single one of them knew anything more than Bitcoin by name. NONE of them were interested at all in investing in Bitcoin, too risky, too strange, to difficult to even understand for them.

I spent 15 minutes discussing Bitcoin with the most open minded of the bunch. He wanted to know what he would do to even buy a single coin. Holy crap, what method was I going to suggest to this guy who can barely get Skype to work correctly. I chose a paper wallet and Local Bitcoins. He thought it was reasonable, however, i could tell by the look in his eyes there was no way in Hell he was going to invest a single dollar any time soon.

The masses ARE NOT early adopters, they will not do research, take a chance, learn about digital wallets, trust some web site exchange or anything of the sort. If it isn't offered by their broker, or banker, or something they can buy at the local Gold dealer, then they are not interested. BITCOIN right now seems a world away from this mass adoption. A WORLD AWAY.

We are still in speculative, niche phase that has a long way to go to play out. It is the biggest reason Bitcoin can fail because if another Crypto steps in and solves these access problems look out. Guys like those in my family DO NOT care about the virtues of Bitcoin's distributed, non-regulated, anti-govt protocol. They will invest in the first thing that is 1) accessible 2) available to them through standard channels 3) endorsed by things they trust: banks, govts, large companies.

That said the price may go to $2000 in the next month , or $200....

Confession: Permabull.

These people do not look like potential early adopters to me, and they are ok, we are ok. There are billions of people in the world, and we need only a tiny part of those people to be adopters at this point, just a few more than the number of people leaving bitcoin.

I can not predict the short term price development, and I think noone can. Here is why: Many of the current users are unsure about the future, and they look over the shoulders of the others to try to find out. A bunch of people having their own opinion that changes, and at the same time trying to guess what the future change of opinion others have (and guess what others guess that the others guess...). That makes the price a chaotic function.

Rpietila and others are right in that there is an underlying exponential function for the long term, based on number of users and what value each users want to have in reserve. But we do not know the parameters of that function (the start value and the increase per time period). It could be far lower than the historic price. The actual price can also be lower than the baseline, due to speculation, just as well as it can be higher. The baseline is purely theoretic, and it will never be possible to prove what it is.

So there is room for more lows. I just don't want to set my coins at risk.

[N12]

My guess turned out right, Dogecoin is actually more hyped than Bitcoin right now: http://www.redditlist.com/

Dogecoin #55

Bitcoin #60

I'm still shaking.

[ChrisML]

By the way, you guys should absolutely check out http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/. It's insane. I don't even know how they can sustain this hype. It really is at least as active as r/bitcoin.

Unexpected consequences.......Dogecoin is the perfect educational vehicle for how cryptocurrency works to people who wouldn't otherwise give a damn!

Shiiiit...that's heavy.

 

Thats why I started mining Dogecoins  

You're picking it up wrong, even in Dogeshit, there may be some value to BTC's future. A little bit of Dogeshit on ones boot on the march to BTC adoption is but a trifle.

You sir, are picking it up wron aswell. Current mining delivers me 10k of dogecoins every 8 hours. With outbursts of 21k.

Looking at the current hyping situation, like BTC did in his kindergarden days. There would be a possibility having a dogecoin being worth $0,70 some day.

If so, I'd be laughing so hard... my dick falls off instantly.

[YoYa]

You sir, are picking it up wron aswell. Current mining delivers me 10k of dogecoins every 8 hours. With outbursts of 21k.

Looking at the current hyping situation, like BTC did in his kindergarden days. There would be a possibility having a dogecoin being worth $0,70 some day.

If so, I'd be laughing so hard... my dick falls off instantly.

Ah! Good luck with that, and pic's if your dick does indeed fall off 

[YoYa]

My guess turned out right, Dogecoin is actually more hyped than Bitcoin right now: http://www.redditlist.com/

Dogecoin #55

Bitcoin #60

I'm still shaking.

I knew it was all gravy after the PBOC released this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDhCOQhUO1s

[ChrisML]

You sir, are picking it up wron aswell. Current mining delivers me 10k of dogecoins every 8 hours. With outbursts of 21k.

Looking at the current hyping situation, like BTC did in his kindergarden days. There would be a possibility having a dogecoin being worth $0,70 some day.

If so, I'd be laughing so hard... my dick falls off instantly.

Ah! Good luck with that, and pic's if your dick does indeed fall off 

I certainly will. And while im at it, ill pay the doctors bill with Dogecoins.

Seriously, not to hurt or step on anyones toes here. BTC is amazing, and for now it deserves a Quality status as it's been going through an amazing prise rise.
It's just hard too understand that so many people are suddenly feeling like a God now that BTC is skyhigh above all other crypto's. It started somewhere... where other cryptos are now.

Just keep that in mind.

[ChartBuddy]

[N12]

For all those even THINKING about "investing" in scamcoins: Don't forget that ultimately, there will only be ONE coin of each hashing algorithm because of the natural concentration of hashing power and the threat of 51% attacks.

Perhaps doge will be the scrypt one. It will certainly be hilarious to watch blight fight dogshit.

[Walsoraj]

My guess turned out right, Dogecoin is actually more hyped than Bitcoin right now: http://www.redditlist.com/

Dogecoin #55

Bitcoin #60

I'm still shaking.

I've always believed that the rise of a poorly conceived alt, such as LiteCoin, would reveal how stupid the entire crypto scene is and that it is driven purely by greed and price manipulation. But if Dogecoin turns out to be the prick to Bitcoin's bubble... That would be an even greater cosmic joke.

Can't wait.  

[N12]

Can't wait either, my friend. I hope we all lose our fortunes.

[ChrisML]

My guess turned out right, Dogecoin is actually more hyped than Bitcoin right now: http://www.redditlist.com/

Dogecoin #55

Bitcoin #60

I'm still shaking.

I've always believed that the rise of a poorly conceived alt, such as LiteCoin, would reveal how stupid the entire crypto scene is and that it is driven purely by greed and price manipulation. But if Dogecoin turns out to be the prick to Bitcoin's bubble... That would be an even greater cosmic joke.

Can't wait.  

I'd honestly see LTC doing this instead of DGC.

Think small, act big. That's all I am trying too say. 400K Dogecoins each month, with an outlook at a future price of (wild guess) $1,40 each. Sign me up. Oh no wait, I already did.

[notme]

For all those even THINKING about "investing" in scamcoins: Don't forget that ultimately, there will only be ONE coin of each hashing algorithm because of the natural concentration of hashing power and the threat of 51% attacks.

Perhaps doge will be the scrypt one. It will certainly be hilarious to watch blight fight dogshit.

Why not merged mining?  A single chain doesn't scale as well as multiple chains.

[Walsoraj]

My guess turned out right, Dogecoin is actually more hyped than Bitcoin right now: http://www.redditlist.com/

Dogecoin #55

Bitcoin #60

I'm still shaking.

I've always believed that the rise of a poorly conceived alt, such as LiteCoin, would reveal how stupid the entire crypto scene is and that it is driven purely by greed and price manipulation. But if Dogecoin turns out to be the prick to Bitcoin's bubble... That would be an even greater cosmic joke.

Can't wait.  

I'd honestly see LTC doing this instead of DGC.

Think small, act big. That's all I am trying too say. 400K Dogecoins each month, with an outlook at a future price of (wild guess) $1,40 each. Sign me up. Oh no wait, I already did.

Blasphemy! May you and all of your kin incur the wrath of the great Doge!

[N12]

Even though I've always been curious about the smell of dogshit, I just could never bring myself to try it.

Perhaps it is my realization that if not one wins, then ultimately, all will lose. Why even bother? Or perhaps I'm just too old school.

For all those even THINKING about "investing" in scamcoins: Don't forget that ultimately, there will only be ONE coin of each hashing algorithm because of the natural concentration of hashing power and the threat of 51% attacks.

Perhaps doge will be the scrypt one. It will certainly be hilarious to watch blight fight dogshit.

Why not merged mining?  A single chain doesn't scale as well as multiple chains.

Isn't Namecoin merged nowadays? It's the only altcoin I've ever dabbled in.