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All of these numbers being thrown around are all guesses, estimations, and possibilities, except for one: 400,000 shares. People seem to pay little attention to this number because it appears irrelevant. I tend to think it is one of the most important. Everyone seems so focused on dividends and share price. That is understandable I suppose, because it lets you make simplistic valuation judgments. Judgments which are for the most part useless.
I don't see people looking at Google and trying to decide if they should purchase shares based upon current prices and dividends. When they decide to buy Apple shares, it is not because they will get their share price back in 238 years. They are buying a part of a company, and that company includes assets far more complicated than an ability to pay dividends.
5 years from now ASICminer could be Google, or Intel, or whatever player in the space you want to imagine. Own 1/400,000 of Google or Apple or Intel and tell me how you feel about your portfolio, especially if you bought that position for $200. Or you can tell your grandkids how you sold it for $200 because it would take 5 years of dividends to get your initial investment back. They will likely beat you to death and bury you in the backyard.
Shares in ASICminer are shares in the future. If you believe in bitcoin, surely you must have a feeling for what that future will entail. 20 years ago, most of the largest internet companies of today did not even exist yet. 20 years from now, the global behemoths may grow from the seeds of ASICminer today. This is the promise of ASICminer. A chance to own a part of the future before hardly anyone else has heard of it. To me, the risk/reward is obscene. Imagine ASICminer a 100 billion dollar company and see your shares valued at $250,000 each. As I see it, worrying about current dividend payouts is almost trivial.
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At 0.3 BTC per share and a guaranteed constant yield of 10%, it would take 10 years months to recover the cost.
FTFY True:) Math. It's not just a good idea. Yeah, 100% return in 10 months, no one will ever accept that kind of crappy return. |
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If someone dropped a nuke on the ghash.io facility it would bring down the global hashrate. Thats probably the only site with enough centralized hash to make a dent for any period of time.
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Anything you can plug in today for $20/Gh/s or less is a pretty good deal. Not so much if you need to wait until Feb to plug it in.
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17 more days until scheduled Gen3 (40nm) tapeout if I am reading the tea leaves correctly. Just over two weeks. If they make this deadline I think folks will feel quite a bit more comfortable with their positions.
Because every single ASIC deadline ever has been met on time. How many deadlines has AM missed again? At least one. 2nd gen chips coming out in November. I don't remember an official statement about gen2. I think it was more or less hinted at with no clear date until it was decided to be skipped. Here you go: Project Timeline
August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.
I don't think that counts as a missed deadline. As I understand it, there were experimental Gen2 chips and products for testing in November. Unfortunately, they did not live up to expectations. Modular large-scale deployment solutions appear to be on-track as promised though. |
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17 more days until scheduled Gen3 (40nm) tapeout if I am reading the tea leaves correctly. Just over two weeks. If they make this deadline I think folks will feel quite a bit more comfortable with their positions.
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Good response. Diligent and trustworthy operators.
Most of the institutions the bitcoin community will need in the future are barely on the drawing board. It is good to see organizations like BTC guild leading the way.
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With bitcoin sub $650 today, no. You would have been better off buying the miners, mining for a month, selling the miners on ebay, and then buying coins. All timed perfectly with their respective markets, of course.
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October 24, 2013: 553Gh/s gets 1 BTC/day @ a cost of $12,366 (9.25 BFL singles from ebay) ($22.36/Gh/s)
October 26, 2013: 778Gh/s gets 1 BTC/day @ a cost of $16,900 (13 BFL singles from ebay) ($21.72/Gh/s)
November 05 2013: 1016Gh/s gets 1 BTC/day @ a cost of $22,013 (17 BFL singles from ebay) ($21.66/Gh/s)
November 17, 2013: 1212Gh/s gets 1 BTC/day @ a cost of $42,420 (20.2 BFL singles from ebay) ($35/Gh/s)
November 30, 2013: 1420Gh/s gets 1 BTC/day @ a cost of $82,833 (24 BFL singles from ebay) ($58/Gh/s)
December 11,2013: 1800Gh/s gets 1 BTC/Day @ a cost of $75,000 (30 BFL singles from ebay) ($41/Gh/s)
Merry Christmas! Today:
December 21, 2013: 2350Gh/s gets 1 BTC/Day @ a cost of $86166 (39 BFL singles from ebay) ($36/Gh/s)
Difficulty going up, prices for ASIC units going down. Eventually someone will have to get something to the secondary market for immediate delivery so we can stop using BFL singles as the benchmark. There are not even 39 BFL units combined available for sale on ebay. In another month or so there may not be enough hashing power for immediate delivery on ebay to even do one coin per day at any price.
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Chip design is a complicated thing. One would assume people would realize this, but I see the process over-simplified repeatedly. There are far more variables involved than just "How many NM is it?"
FC found this out the hard way, the same as BFL and many others. They taped out chips that ended up sucking up too much juice and running way too hot. There are a variety of solutions, but I like the path FC is taking. His 40nm chips will likely outperform the 28nm chips from other companies by a fair margin. And they will cost a fraction of what the 28nm chips will to manufacture. The problem though will be massive heat generation. Solution? Immersive cooling.
I mean really, there is an obvious strategy here. Lets look at the advantages:
Chips at less than 1/10 the cost of the competition
Higher performance chips (as measured in Gh/s)
Plenty of available foundries
Higher density cards and racks
Lower electricity costs for cooling
Deliverable turnkey farms (in storage containers)
Lower facilities costs ( don't need a traditional datacenter)
This really is the future of ASIC mining by inventing it, just like the tag line says. Friedcat is addressing issues most of the competition hasn't even contemplated yet. He is going industrial.
When mining goes "industrial" the community is dead. The capabilities to deploy a liquid cooled behemoth fall to the very few, so hopefully the future has an answer to the block halving issue because the return on something that expansive will be questionable from the get-go, let alone remaining viable long-term. Removing the concept of the block reward halving, the specs on a box would have to be absurdly impressive considering the higher-end that folks like KNC are starting to shoot for. If a Neptune becomes the new norm for the hobbyist-turned-pro miner, we're at the verge of 2014 seeing an even more absurd growth curve than 2013 as far as hashrate distribution. Not to mention the ever-present X-factor that you could get a BFL-type company or even a KNC who says screw it, we're making our retirement, who cares how much hardware we push out and what impact it has on "the network". Standard industry practice among the more greedy VC types is to bleed an industry of all the cash it has before moving on to the next industry, leaving both companies and customers in the dust. BTC isn't immune to that, look how little cash it takes to tip markets and drive prices up and down the "to-the-moon" scale people like to use. I don't blame FC for thinking big, I blame the ASIC manu's across the board for thinking scaling up to industrial requirements is the future of mining. The only direction this is going is centralization. So what do you expect FC to do? Go home and pack in the business? Of course its going industrial. Its a big business. Imagine hundreds or thousands of AM container farms deployed around the world by nation-states, corporations, and cooperatives. Just because you can't put one in your basement or afford to own and run one yourself does not mean it is not decentralized. In 5 years there could be tens of thousands of them deployed, especially as competitors emerge and follow the model FC is pioneering. This is all possible with btc at $10,000 each. |
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Chip design is a complicated thing. One would assume people would realize this, but I see the process over-simplified repeatedly. There are far more variables involved than just "How many NM is it?"
FC found this out the hard way, the same as BFL and many others. They taped out chips that ended up sucking up too much juice and running way too hot. There are a variety of solutions, but I like the path FC is taking. His 40nm chips will likely outperform the 28nm chips from other companies by a fair margin. And they will cost a fraction of what the 28nm chips will to manufacture. The problem though will be massive heat generation. Solution? Immersive cooling.
I mean really, there is an obvious strategy here. Lets look at the advantages:
Chips at less than 1/10 the cost of the competition
Higher performance chips (as measured in Gh/s)
Plenty of available foundries
Higher density cards and racks
Lower electricity costs for cooling
Deliverable turnkey farms (in storage containers)
Lower facilities costs ( don't need a traditional datacenter)
This really is the future of ASIC mining by inventing it, just like the tag line says. Friedcat is addressing issues most of the competition hasn't even contemplated yet. He is going industrial.
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No ASIC anywhere will ever be idle. If it does not recoup electricity costs, they will just sell them to someone who can mine for free at work. They will never go offline, and the diff will never drop again.
When GPU's were usable, it could drop because the cards could be retasked. Not so with asics.
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Bump for surpassing 200 registered accounts.
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Bump for surpassing 200 registered accounts.
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Currently BTC is a risky investment by any standard. To invest in a company whose whole business model is based upon that risk carries even more risk. And then once you dump all of that into a blender and mix it up, you get to pour it out amidst the backdrop of hundreds of other BTC companies going bust over the last year and every investor losing everything. The level of risk starts to approach ludicrous speed.
At this point in the history of BTC and AM, the risk is so large that there is no real model that can realistically balance out the enormous risk. And make no mistake, it is enormous. Therefore, the rational investor will see weekly dividends as a way to try and shave off a little of that mountain of risk. Each time the div goes into the wallet, a small portion of risk has been mitigated. The share price is adjusted accordingly to reflect this.
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October 24, 2013: 553Gh/s gets 1 BTC/day @ a cost of $12,366 (9.25 BFL singles from ebay) ($22.36/Gh/s)
October 26, 2013: 778Gh/s gets 1 BTC/day @ a cost of $16,900 (13 BFL singles from ebay) ($21.72/Gh/s)
November 05 2013: 1016Gh/s gets 1 BTC/day @ a cost of $22,013 (17 BFL singles from ebay) ($21.66/Gh/s)
November 17, 2013: 1212Gh/s gets 1 BTC/day @ a cost of $42,420 (20.2 BFL singles from ebay) ($35/Gh/s)
November 30, 2013: 1420Gh/s gets 1 BTC/day @ a cost of $82,833 (24 BFL singles from ebay) ($58/Gh/s)
And now, today:
December 11,2013: 1800Gh/s gets 1 BTC/Day @ a cost of $75,000 (30 BFL singles from ebay) ($41/Gh/s)
Even with the difficulty jump, the cost to mine a coin per day has dropped nicely. This should be correctly analysed as an example where the value of a bitcoin directly impacted the value of ASIC units. High prices of btc drove up the price of available units, and the "crash" in btc value drove it back down. This can stand as an example where the price of BTC directly affected the cost to mine them, both upward and downward.
You could have bought a unit on November 5th, mined on it for a month, and then sold it for twice what you paid for it. You can probably buy it back for the original cost in another week.
I expect that once the availability of ASIC miners becomes more ubiquitous, we will eventually see the tail wagging the dog. Time will tell.
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The amount of hashing power doesn't determine whether it's a good buy or not. What matters is hashing power per BTC and to a lesser extent hashing power per watt.
In other words: Price matters. A USB Block Erupter would be a very good buy if it could be bought at 1 mBTC, despite it only having 330 MHash/s.
This. |
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The short answer is yes.
You just need to do it intelligently.
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My Takeaway:
1) China says btc is not currency or money in an official sense. No kidding. I think we all know it is not a currency or money in a traditional sense. It is something new and different. Not news.
2) China says btc not to be integrated into financial institutions. Really? It is incompatible with legacy financial institutions, and replaces them. It is outside of those institutions. Not news.
3) China says btc can be used by individuals and businesses. Captain Obvious anyone? Aside from throwing people in jail for using it, you can't really stop that from happening. Not news.
4) China says exchanges must follow existing regulations. Why wouldn't they? They are using Yuan, and China is in charge of Yuan. They have a duty to manage Yuan. Not news.
In the end, they pretty much just formalized what everyone already knew. The end result is a removal of a level of uncertainty, which is probably on balance a positive for btc.
Blue Horseshoe loves bitcoins.
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$2.42 per share. Not bad for a weekly payout really. It adds up!
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