Now we should find out for how many losses in a row we must be immune when betting with, say, 1% win chance to have the same expectancy of busting(once in 2 billion bets), and that's it, don't you think? That's the problem that I'm trying to address You again assume linear relationship but you miss the larger picture. It is not about averages at all (in this case) as the whole thing with the approach practiced and discussed here is about outliers. However, outliers are the opposite of averages. Put differently, you can't apply stats to outliers as stats is just a substitute word or placeholder for averages. In practice, you bust specifically because you encounter an outlier that you can't cope with, and averages, whatever they may say to the contrary, won't help you It just happens that with chances less than 37% (give or take) outliers become extreme even if averages still remain linear on a long enough timeframe. I don't know why it happens but it does. To sum it up, the entire story is about variance and how you deal with it |
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By the way if they are saying it is impossible to make a profit because of house edge, I already won more than $20k from playing in an online Casino. It came from playing in Dice and Slots with very minimal losses Good for you! Money in your pocket is the best proof that your system works, whatever it might be, and you don't owe anyone an explanation. In general, people are pretty good at convincing themselves that something is impossible per se, while it is only impossible for them personally, whatever the reason. It gives you peace of mind, so when you ultimately face the harsh reality, it takes a lot of pain as well as courage to recognize your own failure and incompetence. It is far easier to decry someone's achievements or accomplishments, and come up with all kinds of contrived explanations and phantom rationalizations |
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what is have special about Dice games?
maybe it's easy to play, and it gain popularity as it was introduce in the early days of crypto It is also the easiest to develop As you might remember (and if you cannot, let me remind you then), one of the first, if not the first ever, crypto casinos was called PrimeDice (it is still called so), and for a good reason. Quite a few other online casinos started out with just dice, and it is no surprise. Once you have a proper RNG, either hardware or software, designing a gambling engine is a breeze. As I suspect, developing auxiliary stuff like deposits and withdrawals (aka infrastructure) will require much more in terms of both time and effort |
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I know someone who borrowed money from a bank to buy Bitcoin in December 2018, when the price is around $3000.
Right now we can say that it was a bold move, he just hold on it and I think did sold some around June 2019 when the price hit $13000 and repaid the loan. Well that is one success story, but what if the market goes down up to this point?
That's the reason why you should seize any opportunity that you can grab as much as possible so that you will have no regrets and you will not miss the chance to grow and improve your trading skill and quality This implicitly suggests what you are trying to grab at is indeed an opportunity If you are certain of that and this certainty doesn't stem from primitive wishful thinking or delusion, then for all fucks and sakes go for it. With that said, though, let me guess, the guy who had borrowed money from a bank to buy Bitcoin when its price was around 3k was flying blind. Of course, we are all wise after the event and in hindsight, and now that decision looks like a rational choice to us, but that's simply because we know what the price was after that. However, we couldn't know what it would be at the moment |
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Any genuine knowledge helps
It just allows you to make fewer mistakes, whether you are powerless or not. If you are, luck is likely your only hope and chance. If you are not, you should take advantage of what powers you have. Moreover, it lets you clearly see the line between these two states and then make rational choices. If you are a smart observer, gambling can be an eye-opener to you, and allow you to let go of illusions you might have. As it translates to other areas of life, I think it is a good thing
In order to avoid mistakes person should do only one thing and that is doing absolutely nothing. It works with all kind of persons whether they are able to learn or not That's simply not so Doing nothing can be just like any other "regular" mistake out there. Or even worse since "it is the greatest of all mistakes to do nothing because you can only do little". Fewer means fewer, any way you may try to reinterpret the meaning will be an exercise in sophistry. Regarding learning your lesson, the answer is, of course, a pronounced yes. If you are playing a game of chance (e.g. the proverbial dice), you may realize that you are setting yourself up for a failure if you are in for a long haul, and thus stop gambling altogether. Whether a person's emotions are stronger than their character, whether they should play for fun, etc is non sequitur here |
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I am amazed why it is called DICE gambling when it has nothing to with dice. RNG picks a number and thats all where is the dice in that. Normally you have to choose in between 10000 numbers not like dice which has only six sides. Apart from that there is no visual animation corresponding to dice throw still there is picture of dice and it says ROLL, and I say LOL I somewhat agree with you When I was first introduced to online gambling what we call today dice was called hi-lo back in the day (as in high versus low). Regarding visual representation (or lack thereof), I've seen gambling sites where you can actually watch a die rolling (just in case, dice was originally the plural form of die). Anyway, the name has stuck, and it is unlikely things are going to change in the future. The truth is, this is not the first time the name of something has lost any reference to the original idea, and even become singular instead of plural in due course These dice are loaded! |
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 I came into some money the other day, but the cash register was really sticky after me |
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And I once rolled 0 there, never before and never after. You would kinda expect it to be something like a jackpot or at least a handsome bonus, but it was nothing, just nothing (which is what you actually had to expect, yeah). I can't say I was feeling great. In fact, it felt like a complete anticlimax Right, but imagine how'd you feel if you were betting on that exact number Those were free rolls, so it doesn't amount to much (read, any winning number would be as good) Some people criticize OP for setting an unrealistic goal, but I can perfectly understand him. If he can afford losing €500, he did nothing wrong Well, OP could just have come to understanding that it was too much of a good thing, and then he wound up earlier than his challenge suggested. If that's the case, I understand him perfectly (read, that was a right decision) If you mean he quitted before reaching his goal or busting it all, I don't think so. Rather, he's not willing to discuss his failure We don't know that And as I'm strongly inclined to think, a failure to win wouldn't be as hard to publicly admit as to sign up to a failure to go through the challenge due to one's deliberate choice. The point is that whether you win or lose is mostly a matter of luck, i.e. not one's contemplated choice. However, grabbing the winnings and running away with the spoil has little to do with luck, right? Regardless, I wouldn't go hard on OP. He did the right thing anyway if it was indeed the case |
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But it's prohibited for the moment because of the pandemic, how come they have permission?
their casino has illegal permission from the government, since the pandemic is in effect, all physical casino casinos are closed to prevent wider viruses, not current licenses, the purpose of official permits for the owner and founder of gambling/places. not now from the past. If that casino is really being backed up by higher officials, it means that there is a double standard. If it's a normal citizen, it's not allowed and they are violating the rules, but if it's the authorities, they are allowed? As if authorities can't be affected by the virus.
This is a big problem right now, by ignoring the rules and accepting in secret for those who bet on the table. It is undeniable that most of them are respectable people and in view, the authoritarian system with the horns in power and those without the horns is destroyed. I feel annoyed with their actions, as if...! because people are prohibited from going out and doing their activities, the people themselves smuggle at night, they think they are getting away with the law, very ironic. These kinds of people what I really hate. Even in my country, there are people like that. Just because they are a government official and have the authority, they think it's okay for them to violate the law. It's really ironic because they are the ones making the ordinance, and supposed to make everyone follow it but they are the ones disobeying it. They are not an exemption to the law Let me say that I agree with you But could we really expect anything else deep down? If you have the power to make laws and then enforce them, you are not obliged by them, technically speaking. For example, if you could manipulate the laws of nature, like gravity or whatever, you would be in no way bound by them, other than of your own accord. It is not particularly different with laws humans make. Those who make the laws are not inherently bound by them, whether we like it or not, as they can always change them if it comes to that |
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with which you can catch a nice outlier before getting busted You are thinking in correct direction However, you only made so many rolls. As I suspect, to reveal a particular pattern of variance at so low win chances, you would have to literally make billions of bets and not bust in the process. If you bust, all your effort will be spent in vain. With win chances close to 50% we can be damn sure that the variance of variance (let's call it second-order variance) is less random that the first-order variance (this also confronts us with the question as to how truly random is random) To cut to the chase, with lower multipliers you can safely assume that you will see fewer longer losing streaks than shorter ones. However, with small chances second-order variance may get out of hand, and you will see an entirely different picture. In practice, it basically means that you can't use the approach described here with very small odds as you are set to hit a very long losing streak kind of "all of a sudden" that would likely wipe you out |
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That's why gambling is important
Think of it as a sandbox of sorts, i.e. a place where you can feel with your skin being literally in the game (e.g. dice) that you are not in control but rather a defenseless victim of forces which are beyond your control, random or otherwise. It is important because people are control freaks in life, while gambling helps them (us) realize how little control we actually have over the course of everyday events
I don't think realization of one's powerlessness might help in everyday life Any genuine knowledge helps It just allows you to make fewer mistakes, whether you are powerless or not. If you are, luck is likely your only hope and chance. If you are not, you should take advantage of what powers you have. Moreover, it lets you clearly see the line between these two states and then make rational choices. If you are a smart observer, gambling can be an eye-opener to you, and allow you to let go of illusions you might have. As it translates to other areas of life, I think it is a good thing |
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However, it doesn't necessarily entail a disclosure of your identity. There are many places where you can buy crypto anonymously. For example, peer-to-peer marketplaces are specifically designed to help you out with anonymous crypto purchases. On some of them you don't even need to register (thus you don't disclose any personal details), and your Bitcoin address is never revealed to the seller so any track of your coins gets lost there. The bottom line is that online casinos are more anonymous overall
It is not important whether someone can track the movement of your cryptocurrencies to an online casino. It is important here that a person needs to put money into an account to buy cryptocurrencies. And they will immediately become visible to the tax service The money is already in your bank account No one knows how you are going to spend it, to buy Bitcoin or something else. Let me guess you don't know how P2P marketplaces work. But let me lend you a helping hand here. The seller doesn't know the buyer, he just receives, say, a transfer to his payment card, while his coins from his account on a marketplace are debited. But he doesn't know where they go because, technically, he doesn't even know whether it is his coins or someone else's |
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That would be an obvious overkill
At least as long as you are required to disclose your identity before entering the premises. So can you, or anyone else, for that matter, confirm or refute the assumption that you are required to reveal your identity whenever you are going to visit a casino? I don't mean underground casinos but more like regular and regulated places as in Las Vegas or Monte Carlo? If you have to, then you can safely forget about your anonymity as well as the anonymity of your money (even if you play for cash)
I don't know how it is in other countries. In my country, you are asked to show your passport at the entrance to the casino. They do this in order to check whether you are 18 years old. I have been many times to gambling houses, they asked me for my passport, but no one recorded my data So it is officially a moot point There is a major problem with online casinos. How do I top up my online account? Aren't online casinos supposed to accept mostly crypto? And to buy cryptocurrencies, don't you need to use a plastic card or a regular Bank account? You may need them However, it doesn't necessarily entail a disclosure of your identity. There are many places where you can buy crypto anonymously. For example, peer-to-peer marketplaces are specifically designed to help you out with anonymous crypto purchases. On some of them you don't even need to register (thus you don't disclose any personal details), and your Bitcoin address is never revealed to the seller so any track of your coins gets lost there. The bottom line is that online casinos are more anonymous overall |
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5 times in a row applying this technique, but I failed and lost. No matter how good the technique is, we also have to have a lucky day in gambling. Technique will only be a medium that helps us get luck You should probably stay away from using martingale By and large, it all comes down to properly balancing your chances of winning versus losing so that on a specific timeframe (a month, a year, a decade) your chances of coming through and making it would be higher than busting and losing your balance (actually, way higher, for a mighty safety margin). If you can't do that, martingale will be a losing strategy for you. Long story short, blindly applying it and hoping for the best will likely end in a disaster. The good news is that it is the same as with any other complicated strategy out there that requires knowledge, expertise, and genuine understanding of how things hang in practice I believe that there is no perfect gambling technique, even though someone can prove that it works but that doesn't apply to everyone because we have to have luck With a thoroughly thought-out martingale strategy you must be not so much lucky to win as unlucky to bust |
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With such strategy martingale is useless. Any martingale, with any "improvements" Then you are on your own Without any additional info, proper adjustment assumes linear change. This is not what I observed. If variance changes abruptly (like spikes exponentially), and you don't know by how much exactly, there is no way to lower the increase on loss that would match this spike. Finding it out empirically would probably mean busting in the process
I think, you can bust in the process anyway Okay, let's now ignore traffic lights cuz we are still going to kick the bucket somewhere down the road, right? For example, if you were betting with 40% win chance and increasing 160% on loss, you'd have to switch to 80% increase on loss when betting with 20% win chance; to 40% increase on loss when betting with 10% win chance, and so on You are now suggesting what I already went through in my previous post You are implicitly assuming a linear change. But if there is a linear change, then increasing 160% on loss with a 40% win chance should be the same in the long run as increasing 80% with a 20% win chance, which is otherwise known as six of one and half a dozen of the other. However, the change is non-linear. It basically means you can bust sooner with an 80% increase instead of 160% with a win chance only a few percentage points less. But if you want to check it for yourself, go for it since who am I to stop you? |
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 Bill Gates has been fighting viruses since Windows 95 |
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But we should not forget that gambling is not something that we are 100% in control That's why gambling is important Think of it as a sandbox of sorts, i.e. a place where you can feel with your skin being literally in the game (e.g. dice) that you are not in control but rather a defenseless victim of forces which are beyond your control, random or otherwise. It is important because people are control freaks in life, while gambling helps them (us) realize how little control we actually have over the course of everyday events |
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There are also those who do not want to show their earnings and therefore they play for cash, which is impossible to do in an online casino Online casinos are definitely better in this regard With traditional ones you would openly reveal your earnings to the world as your mug will get caught on camera countless number of times, while your winnings (as well as losses, for that matter) will make it into the casino's books to check for authorities if need be. And I'm not sure you can visit a law-abiding land-based gambling institution without fully disclosing your identity, either. Protecting your privacy and the anonymity of your money when playing online is a breeze, and it is basically for this reason you can kiss your shekels goodbye if an online casino pulls off an exit scam at the end of the day. Let's call it the other five sides of a die In a normal casino, there are cameras that record the faces of players in the room. However, they only provide these records for official requests from law enforcement agencies. The casinos themselves do not carry all video recordings to the tax service That would be an obvious overkill At least as long as you are required to disclose your identity before entering the premises. So can you, or anyone else, for that matter, confirm or refute the assumption that you are required to reveal your identity whenever you are going to visit a casino? I don't mean underground casinos but more like regular and regulated places as in Las Vegas or Monte Carlo? If you have to, then you can safely forget about your anonymity as well as the anonymity of your money (even if you play for cash) There is a major problem with online casinos. How do I top up my online account? Aren't online casinos supposed to accept mostly crypto? |
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As a measure to curtail the household hardship instilled by the ongoing covid-19 pandemic, The United States has already pumped in $2 trillion into the public, and is currently proposing another $2.2 trillion bringing the number to more than $4 trillion. The chief cause of currency devaluation is excessive money printing by the Fed. They print trillions out of thin air and render the value of the dollar worthless in the long run. For the records, the U.S dollar has already lost more than 96% of its value since 1913. If the same narrative was true for Bitcoin, you and I won’t probably be talking about Bitcoin, we would have counted our irredeemable losses and moved on. With the possibility of deep inflation already knocking at the door, a commodity-backed currency or a full-scale adoption of cryptocurrency could be an answer to this continuous cycle of currency devaluation and economic meltdown. Now, the big question is, is there ever going to be a time when crypto will be fully embraced as legal tender on a global scale? Unfortunately,money printing is the answer for the US government,when it comes to covering their enormous budget deficit. Funding the deficit with newly printed money by the Federal reserve system is creating the effect of the so called "inflation tax",which means that resources are being secretly taken away from the people for the government,by devaluation of the national currency.If money printing stop,can you please explain to me how the US government is going to cover their budget deficit? By rasing taxes? The US budget deficit is financed by external actors In this manner, it is not a "budget deficit" in the sense most people think of it (as expenditures exceeding revenues). It would be such if America were the only country out there. However, it is not, and it's other countries which are going to pay for its "deficit" (say, China, as we are already heading in that direction). But you are right that it is a tax, though this tax is levied on and paid by other nations. Basically, the US is exporting inflation, and that's one of the reasons the internal inflation rates remain anomalously low with so much "money printing" |
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The value of fiat will obviously fall down, it is not the answer nor the solution, it is the reason why there will be problems in the future and the reason why some people might turn to cryptocurrencies mainly Bitcoin That's not always the case. If we just print an insane amount of money out of thin air and then inject all this fresh money into the economy, in normal circumstances that will most certainly result in inflation rates surging according to the famous Fisher Equation. However, this equation works both ways specifically because it is an equation, i.e. when you change one side (decrease or increase it), the other side changes proportionately In practice, if people are not working, for example, due to quarantine (read, they are forced to stay at home), the amount of money available to households drops abruptly. Then it makes perfect sense to fill that void with helicopter money in order to keep the identity. Indeed, in the long run the production will plunge too since no one works, but there is a definite temporal lag between these two events, and filling the gap with free money is a rational choice To sum it up, it can be a valid short-term solution (apart from other non-economic benefits) |
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