Oh, I wasn't expecting that! I never thought it would be that huge  . Sad to say but AFAIK there is no specific agency which primarily deals with all the cases regarding crypto however for sure police authorities of each country have their own cybercrime division handling with these stuffs. But honestly, I think it wasn't enough. This is the downside of cryptocurrency. It happens because all of the transaction is hidden or anonymous that is why you can just buy anything you want using it. I'm hoping that sooner or later this kind of people will be lessen. Lets just help cryptocurrency to be known by so many people because of its positive effect in ourselves and in our country. because there is a lot of freedom in cryptocurrency there will always be people who use it to do bad things by using crypto as an alternative payment. it will be difficult to eliminate this, because such cases depend on their use. regulation also will not help much and therefore self-awareness becomes the spear, to show the benefits of using crypto wisely. I really like that crypto currencies are pushing these edge cases more to the main stream and make overall computer security way more important than compared to the 90s. This helps to close many holes in the operating systems as well. The djin is out of the bottle and if these criminals are for example not using Bitcoin for their ransoms (-> encryption of file systems) then they will just switch to more established anonymous currencies like monero, if that didn't already happen. In these modern times and the high connectivity to the internet and their services, we as a society have to be much more aware of our digital fingerprint and take care of the security situation of our computer as if someone would break in to our apartment. That is the same level of access many can get when breaching your computer security. |
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It is a nice combination of several things:
- new tax year
- halving in May
- CME future options
- institutional expansion(fidelity custodial solution to Europe)
- overall good market sentiment with the feeling that the bottom is in
- good media coverage
- overheated stock market
The tax thing I don't really agree, it's something you always expect anytime anywhere every year. CME futures was a surprise too, especially since Bakkt didn't do anything for price, rather, when expectations weren't met, we crashed. I think it's definitely the general sentiment and people looking to get out of stocks before THAT crashes. I agree with your view on the tax situation. However you shouldn't just base your view on it from the american perspective. Throughout the world there are many different tax situations especially regarding crypto currencies. So it sometimes makes sense to sell at the end of the year most of your position, just to accumulate for the new year. This way you can counter-price it to some of your losses. And then there are other tax heavens give you zero taxation after holding for more that a year, which in this case obviously don't have an impact on a new bull run. |
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Bitcoin is not getting the real bull run, and maybe it's just a little bull run before the real bull run coming. But although it is a little bull run, the price indeed increases to the higher rate, and that makes us get the profit. Right now, the price hit more than $8900 (again), and we are still at the bullish trend, so tomorrow could be a good day to see the price can break $9000. We hope that soon, the price can hit more than $10k in this month or next month.
Crypto keeps providing movements that not always can be described as logical and predictable. But that is how it is probably. In spite of a new high, I still stay with my bullish position. The price reached $9k resistance level , and we got a few bearish candles. It took some enery off and could confirm a price reversal. The same goes about RSI and MACD. Another bearish signal is strong. It is a trend reversal signal which is based on a bearish divergence. If we follow it, we should expect the downward movement to $8k support, and SMAs . The downward movement will be confirmed if the price breaks the local uptrend line. And hopefully take some pressure off the market and a low to refuel the very good run we had this year. The market stays bullish in the long run, but if we talk about the short term, I would like to be more bearish . |
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I strictly believe this and invest accordingly. But I am kind of surprised by this early altcoin rally out of the dark.
By my calculation and sentiment, we will reach $16k before or shortly after the halving with a pullback to the $12k. We probably won't reach a new ATH this year, I suspect to reach it only in 2021. And then the big question is when will we reach the top of the new bull run.
Due to the larger market size the market should move again more slowly compared to the one before.
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What we have noticed in the market is probably just a coincidence because there's a lot of drama in the market lately, including the US and Iran conflict, bitcoin halving, and CW case with his BSV. His court battle won't affect the market no matter everything seems to follow as a coincidence to everything what we have seen.
I would never put the craig wright nonsense to the same level like the US-Iran conflict or the US-China trade war. A downward channel can only go down for so long, and maybe it was the right time to break out of it, no matter what is going on in the background noise of the world. Maybe it is the bullish spring with a now confirmed break out and slow steps up one resistance line after the other. |
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more and more adoptions from countries, it will make Bitcoin an extraordinary asset in the future, I'm 100% sure that Bitcoin is still worth buying now
Absolutely it is. However exploring blockchain technology doesn't necessarily mean that a country will invest in a decentralized currency. I would rather think it is more for smaller sized countries who don't want to be economically controlled by an external power. Just look what happens when the americans are threatening Irak to take away the dollar reserves if they kick out the US army. This is a whole different layer of attack. |
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I am assuming February will be around either $12k or $6k levels, I know that looks like a big range but looking at where we are right now and how we are doing, I am just assuming that bitcoin is at a very sensitive spot. If we can continue soaring up then we will definitely break $12k, that won't be a problem at all, we just need this hype to continue and keep going, however if we can't, that would mean the price can no longer go up and people will know about it and they will start to sell which will drop the price.
I am hoping the $12k one will be the reality and from all we have seen recently it looks like that is the real one that will happen however we can never 100% guarantee anything in crypto world, it is literally filled with insane volatility that shocks us all the time.
$12k is very reasonable. Especially with the momentum we have right now and the overall great market sentiment. Compared how fast we have risen last year summer, it is a piece of cake to really push up violently. I made a very simple copy paste chart a week ago to show how easy it would be to go up from these levels. So far so good:  |
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It's easy to make predictions in this voltile market as you can say the price can go over 15 grand or so, but making real judgments is very difficult or saying it's impossible because prices fluctuate very quickly depending on the current market environment. But if you asked for speculations, halving next year might have a positive effect on prices and push prices above 20k by the end of 2020 with normal corrections coming in between so just wait for the actual pump time.
The halving is this year not in 2021. The price of a full adoption should be very high and the regular users should think in satoshis and not in bitcoins anymore. Just look at hathaway berkshire shares. We could consider to reach as high as $200-300k until we're absorbed in the financial markets and, very important, tamed. That is then when the crypto market will behave as Gold, rather slow but stable. But with higher potential for the future, the new generation can't do anything with gold. We're living in a digital world now. |
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But I want to hear from the senior members what can be the reasons for increasing the Bitcoin price? How the market sentiment is working now? Will it increase more?
It is a nice combination of several things: - new tax year - halving in May - CME future options - institutional expansion(fidelity custodial solution to Europe) - overall good market sentiment with the feeling that the bottom is in - good media coverage - overheated stock market |
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If you have to concentrate completely on your job for whole day then it will be hard to trade, I used to do this using Blockfolio app with alerts put on to target prices according to what I feel is support and resistance. I have also put alerts on prices of different exchanges where I believe the pumps or dumps happen earlier than bigger exchanges. Its not easy to do that, but can do if you have all the exchange apps on mobile.
I don't think it makes sense to trade "full-time" when you are already occupied by a regular job. In that case I would prefer to fire and forget, meaning buy and hodl without really thinking of it. I noticed many of my hard working friends lost a pile of money by not transferring fork coins immediately to BTC or just skipping other airdrops and thinks that require some attention and passion. So there is a cost to everything I guess. |
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We have too much money in the worlds, that is why we have negative interest rates.
On the other hand, the big money players like governments or pension funds can not invest into crypto currencies efficiently yet. So the big run up to +$100k/coins will happen when institutional money starts to flow in after losing money for several years in a row by investing in the negative yield fields like state papers or other traditional vehicles.
Low wage is a problem for the average person, but please don't forget in what kind of luxurious times we life even for the regular people. We can freely communicate, buy stuff that we absolutely don't need, travel the world on a low budget.
We live better than kings just 200 years ago ( minus their real world power ).
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If the demand will get higher and the miners cannot give what is supposed to be the need in the market then, there should be an increase in value of it.
It is actually the simplest calculation in the financial industry.
With that, the miners could also support the needs on both end. (to them and to the bitcoin buyers.)
That is the magic of the bitcoin halving, a radical supply shock. I assume Bitcoin has one more insane bull run into its DNA before it is fully integrated in the mainstream finance set, when regular people can buy and sell coins without any hassle (even your grandmother in a bank). So it should happen in the coming halving era with a block supply of 6.25 coins/block. It would also line up pretty well with the last rearing of the fiat paper system and the last straw of the central bank powers, until AverageJoe understands how fiat works. Looking forward to some fireworks. |
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We are very close to 9000$ this moment but I'm afraid that it might repeat recent situation when price pulled back after a short period of rise. I think corrections will happen along the way but 9000$ definetely isn't impossibe target. The question is only if that will happen next week or next month.
We're slowly creeping up with some healthy setback on the way. It looks quite promising that the bull run for the pre halving run-up is already ongoing in its baby steps. We're just little under $9k, so I'd rather expect a bigger correction more to the levels of $10-12k, which could be trade-able. These 5% swings are not worth the hassle right now, when most of your profits are eaten up by the exchange fees. |
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We really don't know on why does the bitcoin's value is rising and there is no news about crypto or whatsoever, it might be whales are making their move or some investor are buying a lot of bitcoin because of the halving.
It's really hard to analyze the market flows and that's why we just nees to always take advantage of what's happening since we will surely get profit from it.
At some point there are no more available coins on the market. It looks that the altcoin season started as well, so money is going in to the market from all directions. Especially when you have to buy Bitcoin first to buy your altcoin. However, it is halving year, so expect some bullish explosions ahead of us and hopefully a rising market percentage for bitcoin. |
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Nothing is confirmed yet that's all speculations and nothing more no one really knows if bitcoin will go down to that level, but if bitcoin doesn't manage to close its weekly candle in or above the key support then we should expect a bearish movement to occur most likely and the price could dump all the way up to the $5000 levels. It will also act as an opportunity to buy in the lows, however. I wish it drops that much so that i could pick up some cheap corn.
The efficient-market hypothesis seems to have this funny contradictive aspect, that people who don't believe in it are themselves pricing in future events because they believe they still have an edge, while those that do believe in the EMH don't price in events themselves because they believe they can't beat the market in that way. Anyway, what support levels are you talking about ? $5k levels seem to be far off right now. We just broke out of the channel and are looking for confirmation. But we broke out of the channel on the downside as well without really punctuating it any further. I'm calmly bullish for now without any trade in mind. Just holding. |
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Bitcoin users shouldn't keep their coins forever. Unless Bitcoin becomes a globally accepted currency everywhere, you may need to convert at least part of your coins into some other asset preferably fiat cash at some point in the future. And I must confess that many of the users are now becoming impatient.
To let the technology growth it has to be decentralized on to many shoulders. Luckily the concentration of wealth decreases in Bitcoin when you use some of your newly earned purchasing powert to transfer to fiat or other goods. In the long term it might work out and reach millions of people who are using it as a store of value and a medium of exchange (probably on a higher layer). However, the greediest people might earn the most. The longer you hodl and the longer Bitcoin prospers, the higher are your chances for a big reward. But you can't live off water, bread and rice only. You will want to spend some of your money at some point. |
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If a random country is in debt, is printing money a good way to pay it off at the expense of the citizens?
For example, lets say you owe an entity $100. If you print an extra $100 bill you pay off your debt, but unbeknownst to the entity the $100 that they lent you is now worth less.
Would the barter system be a good way of combating this?
That's why inflation is considered by some as an invisible tax. This is completely possible and evident in countries such as Zimbabwe, Germany in the past and countries like Venezuela now. Printing money to pay back old debt at the expense of fiat currency holders, specifically middle income earners is nothing new. Why does it affect the middle class the most? The poorest hold little currency to begin with while the richest own factors of production, whose value will rise in nominal terms in line with inflation. That's also a reason why I think decentralized cryptos is a good hedge against this phenomena ever happening in your country. But if the middle class would start to invest in stock companies shouldn't that help a lot with the devaluation of their fiat money ? There is always some kind of path to safe some of your wealth for the long-term. Lately Germany changed their maximum amount of gold you can buy without identifying yourself to only €2k, there were lines of people in the end of 2019 who were trying to transfer some of their paper money anonymously to some gold coins. The regular inflation is "okayish", because you don't really notice it immediately. It is like the boiled frog, who just never jumps out until he is cocked. |
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Some of those are lost Bitcoins that can never be recovered. Of course many of those are just being held as investments. I have some that I've had for over a year that is just sitting in a hardware wallet.
It is the regular cycle, smart money accumulates and waits for the halving summer. I don't believe that many coins are lost these days. Maybe only in tiny fragments by beginners who don't understand the importance of the seed. There was lately some movement of old coins transferred to bc1 addresses, I think this will increase in the near future while the transaction fees are low. No one wants to pay premium just to have the chance to use the lightning network eventually. |
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I'm not especially optimistic on BTC until people find a reason to hold or gain even while price is falling. A super basic example would be interest gained by holding a deposit somewhere, I guess some exchanges do allow people to lend out their BTC at some rate for shorting purposes or lend capital to a business. The more there is of that, the greater baseline we have to the BTC price.
I personally go long and short on BTC at the same time, on different accounts and with various cost or benefit. Ideally that's possible while price falls and not be so affected by price variations.
But this is not a good long-term solution. No one should leave most of their coins on an exchange for a shitty rate, it would make more sense to invest in some PoS or altcoin scheme with blockchain-provable rewards. Going long and short simultaneously is also a very weird idea, it just causes more friction with the exchange fees. I would recommend you to identify a trade and stick with it. Put even some stop loses if you want to be on the safe side. |
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You can't blame the countries themselves in particular, but those running it for putting their own country on the ground. One of the recent events is the countries that fell into the Chinese debt trap that led China to control its own country's assets from their unpaid loans. If these countries are wise enough not to recognise China's terms, this would not really happen. Many underdeveloped countries are making mistakes by overprinting their own fiat currency in their process. If only the government is wise enough, they realise that printing more money is not the solution to anything.
On the other hand, we have the new fiat money called "Eco" which is introduced by the following countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo This money will be controlled by the ECB. So there is no place for China's interventions anymore. |
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