Something happend on 20th to 22th. When I said they wanted to buy time, I only meant before that event. I meant that "They had wanted to buy time".

Imagine this:

1. Negociation planned for 20th, need to buy some time until then.
2. by 20th, negociation broken or postpone, need to come up with a new strategy.
3. by 22th, bidder turned down the offer, this is a dead-end. Let me think some strategy.
4. Document leaked, no use to further list difficulties.

In other words, it only make sense to buy time before 20th or 22th, that's why they don't keep listing difficulties.

And by the way, they cannot do arbitrage, keeping MtGox forever low to arbitrage all the missing asset is impossible, if the leaked document is true. You can do insider deal on the book and buy up GoxCoins from panic sellers, but you need real coins to do arbitrage on other platforms, and 2000 is not sufficient.  I do not know why MtGox lists "arbitrage" in the plan, if the asset table is true, there were no more than 2000 coins of arbitrage they can do one hand with, and they don't have more coins to do another hand.

Although not every MtGox addresses are known, we can still more or less calculate the total amount lost to all wallets bugged by transaction malleability (not any wallet except MtGox's has been reported bugged by MT). At least we can calculate the upper-limit (i.e. repeated transaction look-alike MT-affected are counted in). and if the upper limit is less than 770k, it will be a news headline. (of course if that number is more than 770k it doesn't proove leaked 'draft' is honest.) Who is in the mood of doing the math?

All of the lost coins, around 770k. To give you an idea how rich you are, at the price of 600USD, Chuck Lorre (creator of "Big Ban Theory" telenovela)'s net worth is 600million by 2011, that equals to 1000k bitcoins. This is to remind you that there are a lot of people who can afford losing this much money - a lot can afford to bid MtGox but as I posted previously, only a few people has existing reputation in Bitcoin history whom if assigned CEO can save the business.

I think it is wishful thinking. It's pretty clear whatever MtGox released is not to be trusted, so my reading of their detailed announcement of work procedure means they are negociating with takers and he wishes to buy more time for someone to buy MtGox.

English is not my first language, unsure why do you think I am defending Karpeles. By speculating that Kerpeles knows it for a long time I painted him blacker.  I lost 100 bitcoins to him; there is no reason for me to defend him.

I am offering a view angle inside-to-out so you can look from "how bad it is" to "how it become so bad", which is necessary for investment judgements. e.g. you need to be able to tell a business is going bad before it does, and the way to obtain this insight is to look at bad event from how it formed, not only how it looked like outside. A cool speculator also have to analysis why the previous guess was wrong (e.g. "the leak canonot be too bad because it was only discovered 2 weeks, Gox will live") and I am doing that. You think this review is "in defense" of mark? Either I am experiencing a culture shock / unrefined expression or you are not that interested in speculating (the next event).

I agree with every point you made after "fool". The "fool" part I already explained: he was not foolish enough to not to notice the leak. He allowed the leak - for that we need a word better than 'fool', a word imply foolishness without 'dull' connotation - 'unwise' is too light. Kind English help is welcome. (Edit: my thesasaurs suggested "unscrupulous". Is it the right word?)

I also noticed I wrote that he has high self-esteem, was that an incorrect use? I meant to say he thinks himself important. To avoid further misunderstanding I added "that the world pay attention to his newly gained weight" right after it, so readers know I meant nothing positive with 'self-esteem' there. It indeed would help me by point out English misuses.

You mentioned Officer Gomez at Ingleside, and if someone is assigned to your case you will update. Do you think we should write to Officer Gomez now, or wait a bit till an office is assigned? I assume this Officer Gomez is in charge of the area around which Patrick lives, correct?



Why you think filing the case in hometown helps? Each police office would end up only one victim on the record. I know perfectly well what will happen if I file a case in my own country (China) police: nothing. Did you consider filing the case in U.K. where the business is registered? There is a gentleman who offer to check if this can be done:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=414764.0;all

And do you think of confronting Patrick personally, so he has to answer a question or two? Since it is a matter of life and death a confornation is worth it. He may not say much, but sometimes you know things by checking what is not there.  Many are not living in the U.S. like you to have the convenience of visiting him.

This is a English learner's question: Why he said "Gox Crisis Management Plan Confirmed Legitimate" instead of "Gox Crisis Management Plan Confirmed genuine" or "Gox Crisis Management Plan Confirmed authentic"? Am I right that this is a mis-use of "Legitimate"?

Untrue. Doesn't match the market sentiment that I observed in China. And calm youself down, the price will bottom up, give the market some breathing room and don't let emotion carries you. Cheap coins aren't bad, e.g. it avoids the public impression that bitcoin investors are insane, buying at the bad news (MtGox), and it gives some room for MtGox's bidder to build portfolio. And even if your reason is correct, your wording better be "with China bitcoin is turning into ...", because China is too big to be personalized.

For me the best explanation is this one:

1. The leak was found months/years ago.

2. Declearing the situation begins the down fall of the business. Karpeles being a young enterpreneur who “Giving up is not a part of how I usually do things", thinks he can revert the situation. "I made millions, I could do it again, and the lose can be covered". He is in fact too young to judge situation by past experience; youngsters like him needs a mentor (many young enterpreneurs did get one)

3. Facing lack of liquidity, and unable to solve the leak without the risk of revealing code and cold fact to outside experts, he decideds South American can help him. Expansion towards South American both boost confidence and the new money postpone the revelation.

Mark is too young to be a good businessman and too smart to acknowledge it. There is a big ego acting, since being the CEO of the world 's leading bitcoin exchange has defined him so far. He was ambitious to start with: "my goal is world domination"(source: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304071004579407022025451070 even jokingly, a youngster's ambition is hard to hide)

I reason that the kind of misjudement (or hubris?) demonstrated in this paragraph can only be from a big ego:


Knowing the leak, MtGox would weight the 'stable and running' over the risk of exposing the problem, just like Chinese government. If it is ture now, it was since the leak was found, because MtGox had more market share then.

You may wonder how he gets to sleep everyday with this. This guilty feeling, the impulse to face the fact, doesn't apply to self-proclaimed genuines in their heights. When I run my first business (22 years old) my intelligence was superior in the small circle we had, and I decide that pedestrian concerns doesn't  apply to me. I was in a similiar situation burning my own money and I decide if I could make them in the first place I can do it again as easily, and sleep as soundly as usual. I too naïvely seek business expansion when it was failing. Man wasn't born with personal integrity, some has to suffer to build it. I did. Multiply this sensation many times for a smarter guy like him, I know Mark K. can manage to sleep well and live happily with his cat (except that he is leaking others' money) and to hide the fact away, thinking he is doing mankind a favor. In fact, he perhaps still have rather high "self-esteem", knowing that he is impacting the world by being able to weight different outcome of MtGox - and people pay atttention to his newly gained weight. You can hardly blame him for pure evil, because he lack grown integrity, for judging by age his is in the midst of building one. The mistake is that the world allowed too much stake on a young man like him.

It would be a mistake if you think his nonchalant attitude (showing cat etc) means the business is okay or he has a solution.

Next time when you seek to do business with a company, put more stake if the guy/woman is married (marrage teaches a lot), even more if he had bankrupted and maintained good relationship with former employees and clients. Tripple so if he endeavours difficulty and didn't turn to blame someone the moment when things go wrong.

Now, technically, I've been a tech engineer and I know it is possible that a bug in a complex system takes more than half a year to find or solve - especially if firefighting constantly takes away your focus, and especially the system was running all the time, and especially it is a single point of failure, and MtGox has all 3 characters. Such thing happened in other complex systems before. (Edit after reader assumed that I am defending Mark) this is not saying MtGox is forgivable, but to emphasize that Karpeles made a bad judgement to choose to hide it over exposing it to the experts. To blame it on lack of a grown personality integrity is better than to blame on lame tech. Mind it, if another CEO consider the essential of this event being bad programming skill, don't use his bitcoin services, because he too lack the personal integrity. Errare humanum esta, the way you treat it tells your integrity.

That page says


You mentioned "math rules", democracy is "people rules", from Greek [ demos 'people' +  -kratia 'rule' ]. If you meant what you said, that name can be "arithmocractic currency", from Greek [ arithmos 'number' = -kratia 'rule' ].

My personal opinion is that the world of "democurrency" (If you insit on that name) is troubled enough, no need new labels to derange it until a really new/good idea gets created.

Ah, do you have a blog or something that I can read this sort of inspiring comment on PR?

Not a press release, only a forum post, but you have to pay $25 in order to post in that forum, which makes it kinda formal.

I agree. But I am more conservative, thinking there are only less than 30 people in the world who has the reputation to buy MtGox and keep it running.

My speculation: This personage should bid with $1, Mark is too greedy to agree, the deadlock goes on for a month, and this personage decide the brand's reputation is further damaged beyond redemption and give up bidding, Mark capitulate and agree to sell for $1, but it's too late, then he files bankruptcy.

You are mean.

No, they did not. If you eat an apple, do you say that the apple managed to get eaten? They responded to MtGox's resignation in the only way they could, so they are acted up on, not acting. The only way an apple can respond to an eater is, frankly, to accept be eaten.

You felt something wrong in MtGox, your fear justified, but you did not see through the lies.

I'll give you examples: the blame on Transaction Malleability is wrong, but few saw its purpose; multiple delay in fixing and few saw through the smoke grenade that they are using the time to seek bail-out. MtGox is manipulating the market price, but only a few (e.g. JorgeStolfi) can do the math and calculate that the hole is larger than what they can redeem through inside trading, and it is again to buy time for bail out. Everyone know MtGox was cheating but only a few know (not feels) they would not survive this time. In the noises, hard fact predicting MtGox's insolvent was very few, and most have bet MtGox's survival as an insignificant power. Nobody was bold enough to point out they are not only insolvent, but lost 99.8% of customer's coins, no one predicted something even near that.

After the fact everyone can say "I knew they were evil and I knew something was wrong", that is far from seeing truth through the lies. I think Mark K lied well.

We are (braindead not being able to see through his continuous lying). There are only a few members on this forum who saw through his continuous lying before the revelation.

So MtGox must be his first business devotion, because if he had another he would not have given it up to run MtGox. It is difficult to let go of your first business, since it defined you "so far". Yongsters do think like that. When you run the 2nd and 3rd business you slowly realize your business does not define you - it is the moment you start to build personal integrity and stop to attach so much emotion to business ("I'll never give up").

100BTC.

Jorge, just tell me how can I subscrib everything from your month. The leaked document 'Gox Crisis Management Plan' confirmed every number is in your prediction range. And if you need a partner in project / business, kindly drop a message to my humble self.