though i now see some are digressing off the topic of segwit adoption, after they themselves admit adoption is slow as it takes time..

lets rply to this topic meander.. as it is funny
.. yep funny, old, outdated, mythbusted propaganda above by cellard. but gotta love your effort of that same old myth busted joke that keeps repeating for atleast 2-4 years old..
here is some tips. if you want to continue being a comedian, update your jokebook.. as people now laugh at you for using stale jokes rather than laugh with you about the content of the joke itself

p.s im a white-brit... but ill say this
i know you may have been drip-fed by fox news about terms like
"communism" "china" "bomb them bomb them bomb them"
but the reality is in china:
not every business is run by 1 man
not every facility is run by 1 man
not a whole population is controlled by 1 man.

one day i hope you take a plane journey and experience life outside your country and see the diversity of the world

and more specifically to antpool. not every facility is actually in china.
should you actually investigate such you will see that Wu doesnt manage the facilities. nor the block mining stratums. nor the decisions of the block creators deemed as "antpool"
also other pools that get wrongly classed as "china" are not china.. slush(managed by aa guy in thailand) f2pool, world wide access

..last point to make
pools cant change the rules.. but devs can. so the over all funny part is when defending a dev pointing at a pool is the weakest defense people reply with
(kid with chocolate on face: "no mummy, the dog ate the chocolate cookies and caused the crumbly mess"(dogs cant eat chocolate))

"gaslighting" new buzzword this month?..
whats next? "conservative".. "ad-hom".. yea certain buzzwords start circulating in a certain group of people, which just shows they only fed off each other in an echo chamber

keeping the 4mb and removing the witness scale factor would actually allow MORE transactions per block
as for malleability. pfft
its more for a new TX format that is compatible for LN
funny part a 2-in-2out tx of legacy vs a 2-in-2out tx of segwit.. legacy uses less actual bytes on a hard drive.
(but shhh dont tell them that. they still think stripping blocks and not validating signatures and not relaying every tx is ok)
another funny part. new/re-activated opcodes can re-introduce malleability. but thats for another topic


years ago there was a fee priority formulae..
refer to that and you will learn about "coin-age"

now imagine instead of just fee= byte*feeperbyte
but instead something like
fee= (byte*feeperbyte) * (144/coin-age)

so if a coins age is 1 confirm. 144/1=144, meaning the person pays 144x more
so if a coins age is 72 confirm. 144/72=2, meaning the person pays 2x more

image a current fee of 1satper byte. and a tx of (not exact) 250 bytes

confirms   1        6           72        144
price      36000   6000      500      250

now would you spam the network every block if it cost you 36000sat a time. or just use the network wisely for a couple purchases a day far cheaper

if you do the math you will find is a tx had just 1 confirm, but was ignored in the next 6 blocks.. the fee is already set-in as 36000. so when at the 6th block. it would then appear as a premium compared to fresh tx's wrote with a fee of 6 confirms(6000sat).
that way pools can also tell not just by time stamps. but by fee which deserve priority and would be more considered as its more profitable to accept them.

after all right now if everyone just paid 250sat.. because everything is just sat per byte.. there is no "priority". so a tx could sit in mempool for hours and have no better placement than someone who just made a fresh tx a minute ago.. as the amounts thy both pay right now are the same.


no i was not. but seems your buddies have been telling you if people dont love core they must love cash.. (facepalm)
thats the narrow minded view of the kardashian drama.

my view is NOT network X monarchy by team A or F**k off to network Y
my view is network X that has MANY diverse teams that use consensus and all contribute and compromise until an agreement can be made of essential stuff all can generally agree on

EG
not 1mb or "gigabytes by midnight" false choices.
but consensus and compromise of 2-4mb which everyone can generally accept. (without the wishy washy bypass crap of 4mbweight limited by witness scalefactorx4) thats not actually a full utility of 4mb for all tx formats

you can spot when a block contains absolutely no segwit UTXO's because the "stripped" size(b) and the size(b) are virtually equal give or take a few bytes difference for the block format/header stuff

that said. the blocks that are tagged as "antpool" but do include segwit show that not everything is run by one man (countering the "china own 51%" racism

you will also notice that some "antpool" blocks coin reward are different. theres half a dozen different coin reward addresses. each different address represents a different facility in a different location.

you will also notice that one of them "antpool" coin reward addresses is actually a bech32 address. which also counters the propaganda. as it shows that antpool isnt a single mindset of Wu but different facilities differnt countries and different managers with different judgements

(sorry to the core cabin of PR team, for busting the myth of Wu)
so i hope all you lot in this topic that just follow a certain narative have all got the message about that myth. as thats been circling for years as a drama finger pointing exercise by mainly your buddies for years

for instance.. even just above combining antpool & btc.com into some single mindset....(facepalm)
but i do laugh when a certain group treat over a billion people (china) as a single mindset.. now that is funny

you will also see orders that are buying at X and then being put at a sell order ~$90-100 higher(1.3%)
or
you will also see orders that are selling at X and then being put at a buy order ~$90-100 lower(1.3%)

and just repeating as the price waves move
many traders dont throw everything at one order price and wait for 10%-100% spikes/dips. instead they take small % amounts and just repeat repeat repeat which nets them better overall % totals over time than waiting for bigger orders to hit bigger spikes

the 2013 ATH was not a sustainable rise. its was just price drama. the cause ASIC's changing cost of mining. which then OVER escalated into speculation

the 2017 ATH was not a sustainable rise. its was just price drama. the cause VC btc purchase to then hand btc to certain investment contractual obligations. which then OVER escalated into speculation

the bitcoiners as a whole were not all active and online and able to actually be part of those events as they were temporary.
EG a volcano in hawaii looks emotional to watch but the main population were not actually on the island to experieince and feel it.
so dont worry/concentrate/care about ATH
however every day everyone gets to handle and be part of and experience and feel the benefits of the prices above the baseline/low tide/ground level.

so again dont measure history based on ATH but based on the differences of the ATL... it will switch your mindset to a positive mindset of glass half empty and still room to grow. instead of glass half full and not much left to go.

bitcoin is on a bull market
2016 >$300
2017 >$900
2018 >$5800

the temporary drama is not bull or bear.. but infact calve(small aged bull)  cub(small aged bear)

hourly/daily/monthly movements are not bull or bear. its just wild animal play of calves and cubs.

those not into animal financial analogies?
bitcoin is on a rising tide climate change. the temporary changes are just waves and tsunamis.. get used to it

what if i told you that if you cut away the temporary cub/calve drama of speculation

2013 >$10
2014 >$300

the only year that id consider was bear would be 2015,
but from 2012-18 was predominately long term BULL

ICE own nasdaq

they are working with microsoft and starbucks to do BAKKT
there are many topics on this forum and many blogposts and videos on the internet about BAKKT. all you need to do is use the search features of this forum, google or youtube

looks like some social drama
..
funny part is he doesnt write code that changes the network.
if he had power segwit wouldnt have got activated
if he was an attacker the network would be dead.

all this "china", "Wu", "ver", "wright" stuff is social drama.. like a kardashian tv show.
sticking fingers up to a webcam. being a australian scammer. does not affect bitcoin.
plus

these screamers about 51% attack must realise that ASICS have been around for 4 years. and yet all that has happened is social drama finger pointing games
however those that do have power are the devs, the VC's that pay the devs. and the same VC's that have bought the main merchant/exchanges that then sway users to follow dev/merchant/exchanges because without them people cant spend funds through that cabal/cartel

i do like it when people scream "china own 51%". yet if you investigate the numbers you will see many of the "china" farms are not actually in asia nor in control/managed by one person

oh well
lets let the sheep do the standard fox news "bomb them bomb them bomb them" screams of racism, while completely ignoring where the real power lays.

mining pools cant change the rules. as any rules that defy what CODE THE DEVS RELEASE gets rejected. yep a mining pool can have 500zetahash and still get rejected in 2 seconds.
all a pool can do is change the arrangement of transactions in a block

funny thing. antshares and bitcoin cash are separate. they are not viruses that can attack the network. the only thing that is happening is finger pointing and social distractions away from where the real CODE manipulation source can happen.

1. silicon valley had th geeks mining bitcoin. not doing darknet stuff
2. Ellen degeneres mentioned bitcoin https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS2BMxeHsv8
3. the bigbang theory mentioned it
4. tv show almost human kept mentioning bitcoin as their common currency
5. tv show the good wife mentioned it. even had the lawyer character saying she bought some
...
i could go on and on and on

but you did bring up an important psychological point.. most people, including youself only seem to remember bitcoin when mentioned in negatives... maybe its due to the choice to channels/shows you prefer. or that 'there is no such thing as bad press' because it stuck in your head that btc was mentioned in such and such manner. thus your mind atleast remembered it


and lastly yep bitcoin is not 10 years old.
in my view the august 2008 registrations of websites about bitcoin. thats the conception date
in my view the october 2008 release of the white paper about bitcoin. thats the first ultrasound photo of it

the january 2009 date when bitcoin was actually released into the world and it came to life.... that was the birthday

there is only one mega flaw in all 3 series of the TV show

in each series the underlying fault is that the guys keep trying to find different methods of getting FIAT to fund their crypto projects. i think they miss the point of cryptocurrencies entirely.

when doing seminars, its great. its hands on face to face comunication.

but remember "know your listener"
for instance the example above is school kids,
dont waffle about the tech science of university level cryptography if they are only highschool level

dont waffle about blockchain use cases of medical/banking.. kids dont know the behind the scenes of these, instead talk about educational benefits eg exam/test logging. imagine a blockchain where their grades are credits.. literally tokens that at graduation they could then spend... that soon peaks their interest more so then the offtopic waffles of things unrelated to them

apart from that. make it a challenge or game to get them thinking of if they formed a team/group. what things can they come up with. get them thinking about how they can get involved rather than just make it a sit and listen to some strange guy with a power point presntation

theymos owns this website

follow only his instructions
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2385104.msg24371150#msg24371150

so series 3 was released this week. its a show all about cryptocurrencies
available/showing on sonys crackle platform/channel..... of them cough streaming sites cough that are not affiliatd with mainstream broadcast platforms

starring
dork from 'the OC'
watson from 'sherlock', he also in recent 'fargo' series and a few marvel movies
hellboy from 'hellboy'

series one was about starting an altcoin, and pivoted into ICO and blackmail and VC funding
series two was about ICO and blackmail, kidnapping and murder ending with releasing a openbazaar LN hybrid

series three begins with the openbazaar LN used as a silkroad(darkmarket) which brings in the NSA trying to get involved

this might cause a stir in the speculative market. as it was not a coincidence that just making an altcoin mutated into "ICO's" around the time of the hype of series 1&2

its not strange at all.
its called day trading

if you want to sell say 0.69 an hour or 16.56btc a day. you dont simply throw a sell order in as a lump sum.
the lump sum could create a 'wall' where other people see it and then refuse to buy into it as its a bigger lump then other orders.

so instead you calculate it down and sell in spoonfuls that way its not noticable and sales flow through without impacting the psychology of other traders.

smart traders that have $100k are not going to 'eggs in one basket' in one order sell it all. as that causes a market reaction

firstly. when they liquidate. other pools take the slice of the pie the liquidated pool now doesnt.
you can calculate that.

secondly miners have similar costs to stay competitive. as you say if they are over leveraged, they lose. so over time those that are surviving the last 4 years of asic mining are surviving because thier costs are pretty equal to avoid liquidating out
(they had 4 years to find their cost equilibrium)

yea if you start up a new farm. chances of liquidating are higher.. same with any business.. but if you can get passed the first couple years where you are smart enough to find the efficiency and get the costs to a competitive level. then youll find your at the same costs as your competitors

thats why i said its not just simple 5yo "supply and demand".. there is more to it then that.

even yourself argue that its more than supply and demand. if you actually read your own words in detail

no one can predict the price minute by minute. hour by hour. so forget this conversation is about prediction
price determination is about determining the price not predicting it

EG how do you know bitcoin is valued at the $6k(sustained/long period) range instead of $1(sustained/long period) or $20k(sustained/long period)

easy. if the hashrate this month shows the $6k range then thats the area sustained prices would return to after the corrections of speculative waves

mining is not reactive as many think smart pools have already calculated a year ahead their growth. (leased building space requirements, planned staff requirements, paid upfront contracts to buy excess electric. producing asics/purchasing asics)

miners are not ractive to OMG social drama face just said something bad, so we must turn off asics..
for miners their concern is the % chance of getting slices of the ~1800 daily btc reward cake

its all pre planned. extra asics or electric demand doesnt magically appear when needed

so when mining. if the cost of mining to get coin is cheaper done by just buying it.. they will. and if cheaper to mine it, they will

the psychology of this is pre set. thats the point.
its natural flow. if you have 2 market stands sat side by side. offering the exact same end product but standA is cheaper on a monday and standB is cheaper on a tuesday. you can already know which stand will have the action occuring more so before it happens.
what you find over time is if standA and standB are different initially, they eventually find a mutual equilibrium

the rise in hashrate that stands the test of 3-12 months causes a base value to equilibrium into that area.

EG
if mining cost only $1 a btc guess what. miners would mine it at $1 and sell it for profit at any price above $1. all the way down to $1.0X because its still profitable

but because it costs in the $6k range they wont sell for $1. thats pretty much a given guarantee before even having to look at the price chart that you wont see a $1 btc while it costs in the $6k range

and thats the point in determining the price.

the speculative (temporary) drama waves that then correct. yep unpredictable. but determining the base value that prices return to after drama events(corrections).. is possible

if you told me (given asic hardware was the same $450 and electric base was 6centskwh) and said for the last few months hashrate was in the 90exa area.. id tell you ignoring the temporary waves. the btc base value area would correct to around ~$12k

no
charlie munger called it rat poison years ago.

then recently. warren buffet made a smart remark.
the interview was 'when charlie munger called bitcoin 'rat poison' when it was $100, what would you say about it now its $10k'

the smart reply was ratpoison squared
(emphasis on the squared... think about it 100->10,000) if you dont get it
100x100(meaning 100 squared)=10,000

as for the rat poison.
in wall street and londons square mile. if your in the financial life, you are living in 'the rat race'

bitcoin poisons rats = bitcoin is poison to wall street traders (think of the positive spin on the meaning)

FIAT TRADE KIlLLER THATS VALUE HAS SQUARED SINCE LAST CALLED A FIAT TRADE KILLER

"supply and demand" pfft.. thats 5year old stuff

supply is layered.
demand is layered.

once you delve into the layers you start to see the bigger picture.

plus simply saying "supply and demand" is meaningless

i have 10 bags of dog poo, and i know of 7 billion people.
there is the supply and there is the demand... see.. empty debate

the OP is at college/university level not 5year old level.

as for saying the cost of creating/obtaining an asset has no relevance to determining the price of an asset is a big laugh
EG
if it cost you $10 .. your not going to be foolish and sell it for $0.01cent. your atleast going to want $10 for it.
and then ontop of that speculate the desire/need/function value to add on (how much profit you can make (raise the price)) before a buyer thinks your being too greedy if too high or a great deal if at/near your cost

OMG
random person who doesnt use bitcoin is asked about bitcoin and the forum members suddenly get emotional

.....
imagine the euro.
OMG
random person who doesnt use euro is asked about euro and the euro forum members suddenly get emotional

reality check of what should happen
as a brit i use the pound i dont care about the euro.. .....
euro forums....... 'oh well'

my point
find a subject. find a person that doesnt use that subject. ask him about a subject. and they are by default going to say they dont give a crap
so just dont get emotional about it. find something that actually matters to talk about

another determinant is not looking at the highs or the averages of bitcoin price history.
but instead look at the LOW
you will find that if a prices BOTTOM has tested a value several times and has refused to go below that over multiple month then that becomes a support line

11 month support bottomline $5,800
3 month support bottomline $6,100

that support line helps keep the price above a certain level as the majority of traders would have cycled their coins through exchanges and services and spending habits at or above that price. and gave traders many chances to sell

so the longer prices stay above it, the majority have a mindset that the price is above that level to either have already sold if they thought it was profitable, thus the new buyer has it set as their minimum price.. or if not sold its in that persons mind that the price zone/bottom is their new bottom too, even if they bought it cheaper earlier

no one can predict the hourly/daily movements of speculation. but the value zone can be calculated.