aww ffs jjg..nice one.  +1 WOsMerit I expect you to donate those satoshi to a worthy charity.  I saw the price start to move rather quickly above $8,900, so I prepared my post.. Yet, Vegeta (on the run) had to wait, and wait, and wait....... until bitstamp hit $9k with the consumption of 22 coins at that price. |
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OMG!!!!!!! OMG!!!!!!! We are on the run.  Observing>>>>>>>>>>>
$9,000 |
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I do expect plenty of corrections in the way up. Plus it is healthier that way.
Almost an inevitability to experience a decent number of corrections on the way up, otherwise something is surely rotten in the state of Denmark |
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It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth,
Truth you speak, young padowan - but with practice, easier it gets. For once, I don't want to "...become an old man, filled with regret, waiting to die alone.” We don't have to be like Jessie L., who probably has a record of gaining and losing large fortunes. One time he even busted a trust fund, somehow. I think that WO crowd would be a seller from 20-30k to whatever. Those (plus OG) bitcoins would allow newcomers to gain exposure. Just don't sell more than 70% total, EVER. I doubt that very many OG wall observers will be selling many coins in the $20k to $30k range, except perhaps to skim a few off for insurance. Selling up to 70% seems a bit much, but I do believe some WO OGs are willing to sell that high of a percentage for a variety of individualized reasons which may or may not be well thought out, except thinking or hoping to buy back lower.. which may or may not play out. Ahem, NOT for 20K to 30k, but rather from [20-30K] to Whatever (50,60,100, 150, 333, 400K). I am also very confident that if we "pop" to, say, 25K, then start correcting downwards, many WOers would sell at least a portion. They would not want to bear a possibility of a second trip downwards. It would be hard to resist. A similar situation played out in 2017 when we went to 1300, then corrected to 870 or so. Lots of selling. It may not matter too much, but I think that we have differing ways of spinning this whole matter in order to arrive at our conclusion. Personally, I recall that there was a whole hell of a lot of hype about how many folks would be selling in the $900 to $1,500 price arena, but in the end, we largely went through that price arena like a hot knife going though butter, in spite of the mucho hype about the selling that would take place. Sure, in January 2017 we passed above $1k and in March 2017, we revisited sub $1k like you said, but in my thinking there continued to be way more hype about down than was able to be such sustained...l which is likely going to be similar this time around too... which is a lot of dumbies and weak hands are going to be shook out of their coins in that price arena... but the vast majority of the more experienced HODLers are not likely to sell many, if any, coins around that area.. and won't be shook from their coins, inspite of the then anticipated hype... and I doubt that there is going to be fear about revisiting low prices - like the nonsense that Vinny lingham was spouting out in March 2017... which did not play out, even though some gullible folks listened to him and sold their coins. I probably agree with 90% of the above. Vinny did cause much selling, didn't he? Well, nobody knew back then if he is spouting nonsense or really had an insight. Only later we knew that it was the former. He seemed to have a decent amount of credibility back then, so even if he did not cause selling he could have contributed to failure to buy as well. So, yeah, he was later shown to be full of hyperbole. Personally, my dream scenario would be a situation where btc literally follows the S/F graph. Sharp up, then quasi-stable for years. It's the best for slowly "skimming". Last time it was just too fast on both slopes.
I doubt that any of us longer term followers of bitcoin should reasonably expect that bitcoin would all of a sudden become quasi-stable. Of course, it becomes more difficult and expensive to manipulate any asset as it grows in value, and since the players are getting BIGGER too, the incentives to manipulate bitcoin, or to exacerbate momentum up or down beyond any reasonable expectations remains present in bitcoin.... So, in the end, it seems to me that the most probable thing that we can expect in bitcoin is ongoing volatility for a decent number of years.... likely 10 years, and likely more, and accordingly, since we have a high expectation that decently high volatility will continue to take place in bitcoin, we should attempt to plan for such volatility that seems almost inevitable and therefore to be at least one step ahead of others who are hoping or even trying to assert that quasi-stability is starting to exist in bitcoin when in reality such quasi-stability would be a temporary appearance, at best. By the way, I am not saying that I want BTC volatility, but bitcoin gives two ratts' asses about what I want, so I am merely attempting to describe a situation that exists, rather than what I would prefer. |
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.. which may or may not play out.
exactly say I had managed to time the top and got out at 17.5 last time, which would have been a pretty good trick to hit that 5 day window, sure as shit it would have run to 45 and this dip would have bottomed at 18. That's why selling at the right time is so hard (last time it could have easily been either 15K or 30K). That is why you should be prepared to skim (and not regret) rather than attempting to play balls to the walls or regretting that you did not sell more. If you sufficiently skim, then you should not regret - even though the fact of the matter remains that you could have sold more.. but so fucking what... you already skimmed within the parameters of your largely already established plan. |
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It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth,
Truth you speak, young padowan - but with practice, easier it gets. For once, I don't want to "...become an old man, filled with regret, waiting to die alone.” We don't have to be like Jessie L., who probably has a record of gaining and losing large fortunes. One time he even busted a trust fund, somehow. I think that WO crowd would be a seller from 20-30k to whatever. Those (plus OG) bitcoins would allow newcomers to gain exposure. Just don't sell more than 70% total, EVER. I doubt that very many OG wall observers will be selling many coins in the $20k to $30k range, except perhaps to skim a few off for insurance. Selling up to 70% seems a bit much, but I do believe some WO OGs are willing to sell that high of a percentage for a variety of individualized reasons which may or may not be well thought out, except thinking or hoping to buy back lower.. which may or may not play out. Ahem, NOT for 20K to 30k, but rather from [20-30K] to Whatever (50,60,100, 150, 333, 400K). I am also very confident that if we "pop" to, say, 25K, then start correcting downwards, many WOers would sell at least a portion. They would not want to bear a possibility of a second trip downwards. It would be hard to resist. A similar situation played out in 2017 when we went to 1300, then corrected to 870 or so. Lots of selling. It may not matter too much, but I think that we have differing ways of spinning this whole matter in order to arrive at our conclusion. Personally, I recall that there was a whole hell of a lot of hype about how many folks would be selling in the $900 to $1,500 price arena, but in the end, we largely went through that price arena like a hot knife going though butter, in spite of the mucho hype about the selling that would take place. Sure, in January 2017 we passed above $1k and in March 2017, we revisited sub $1k like you said, but in my thinking there continued to be way more hype about down than was able to be such sustained...l which is likely going to be similar this time around too... which is a lot of dumbies and weak hands are going to be shook out of their coins in that price arena... but the vast majority of the more experienced HODLers are not likely to sell many, if any, coins around that area.. and won't be shook from their coins, inspite of the then anticipated hype... and I doubt that there is going to be fear about revisiting low prices - like the nonsense that Vinny lingham was spouting out in March 2017... which did not play out, even though some gullible folks listened to him and sold their coins. |
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dump alert.
You are NOT starting out too well in your newbie status if you are spouting out that kind of nonsense. Pretty soon, you will argue that bitcoin is crashing based on consolidation or a less than 5% correction. amirite? Ya. I'm easily fooled. Not seeing bitcoin crashing though. Peaks and valleys moving upward. Maybe I'm remembering the weekly pump and dumps from years gone by. Shrug. Doesn't come off as very genuine to me, but maybe I should not be so skeptical. Hey, it is understandable that anyone who held through 2014/15 or maybe including aspects of the 2018 holding period (though it seems shorter to me), is going to feel some shell shock - and even doubt about bitcoin's price inclination - and a fear of being dumped upon at any minute. There is no doubt that dumps can come at any time, but currently, seems like we are going to need more than $100 or even $200 to cause us to even consider that a dump is actually happening. Furthermore, even getting a 15% or more correction would not be out of the usual (even though it is feeling as if we are inclined to test $10k, currently).. dumps can come at any time.. but we need a bit more than a few walls and a bit of dumping here and there to get a lot of us to raise or antennae... currently the ongoing and seeming persistent momentum seems up (until it is not, concededly). |
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Even though the massive hodlers of bitcoin who can buy a lambo is sitting pretty
Humblebragpost: Every once in a while, I see a Lambo while I'm out and about in Dallas. I don't absolutely LOVE them, don't hate them at all, but I'm more of an odd-duck, and consider them too gauché - preferring the refined subtleties of Porsche, or the gravitas and raw power of a MacLaren. Ferraris are right out. Yeah, that was the other thing I wanted to do post-halvening - Get a black MacLaren GT to take back and forth from the city to the ranch... in 2022ish... if everything aligns to plan... Dare to dream. I’m probably going to get a Rolls Royce or a Bentley, as you say, if everything aligns to plan. Always wanted an NYC apartment too. These things will be doable if we hit $100,000+ per coin. Obviously being financially sufficient, never working another day is the main goal but shit, I want & expect luxury with it too Dare to dream indeed. Not sure you will be able to afford a Manhattan apartment even at $100K/btc... that's expensive shit yo In the order of the couple of millions plus ridiculous yearly taxes and shit... for something not that big nor luxurious except for the placement. I mean unless you want to use most of your stash for acquiring / maintaining it. Plus you won't be able to use it for more than a few months a year.... you could rent it when not using it though... maybe a good investment. It's funny (not so much) how when you grow a few steps higher in your net worth only to discover the next steps in the ladder come at an exponentially higher cost. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Time ) Being financially sufficient for life is my main goal too. That might be doable. I am going to put LFC in the approaching 100BTC ballpark/arena;... (no need to agree or admit to anything), but assuming 100BTC, and assuming that you would need a few million in extra cash to comfortably maintain such a location, you seem to be correct that $100k BTC would be barely achieving such objective in a comfortable and non-worry way. Furthermore, I think that it is a bit problematic for any BTC HODLer to count on any kind of meaningful BTC price stability in the coming years, and I believe that is part of the reason that LFC and some other regular WO participants presume that they are going to have to cash out a decent amount of their BTC stash in order to achieve some of their material objectives.. and whether they are presuming too much or NOT could be a lesson in frustration and futility to them, if they are thinking that they are going to have enough value to achieve all of their objectives in a kind of comfortable and calm way - which also implies a decent amount of cushion to prepare for both ongoing volatility in bitcoin and other unexpected aspects of living expenses (which actually some of the unexpected needs to be planned for - which causes it to be a kind of expected unexpected). |
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It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth,
Truth you speak, young padowan - but with practice, easier it gets. For once, I don't want to "...become an old man, filled with regret, waiting to die alone.” We don't have to be like Jessie L., who probably has a record of gaining and losing large fortunes. One time he even busted a trust fund, somehow. I think that WO crowd would be a seller from 20-30k to whatever. Those (plus OG) bitcoins would allow newcomers to gain exposure. Just don't sell more than 70% total, EVER. I doubt that very many OG wall observers will be selling many coins in the $20k to $30k range, except perhaps to skim a few off for insurance. Selling up to 70% seems a bit much, but I do believe some WO OGs are willing to sell that high of a percentage for a variety of individualized reasons which may or may not be well thought out, except thinking or hoping to buy back lower.. which may or may not play out. |
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dump alert.
You are NOT starting out too well in your newbie status if you are spouting out that kind of nonsense. Pretty soon, you will argue that bitcoin is crashing based on consolidation or a less than 5% correction. amirite? |
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It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth,
Truth you speak, young padowan - but with practice, easier it gets. I will agree that if you have all of your basic luxuries covered, then it is not as difficult to take a major cut in networth... which is kind of ensured through diversification - so that if the asset (bitcoin) goes to zero, you still have sufficient wealth in other assets. Practice should facilitate getting to the point of sufficiently hedging for many people, but there are other people that do not seem to learn, a kind of compulsive gambler. For years, I, personally, I have made considerable efforts to steer away from significant gambling or gambling temptations. |
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Nice to see the corn growing. Not FOMOing into these prices.
TFW I'm thinking of FOMOing into these prices... Sheeit.   Watch out with those selfies... Keep yourself safe BoB! One hour t'ill Saturday b00z and dinner time, damn with parent companion from me and my GF  But will be fine, as the wine is being served @ a non stop pass! Have a good Saturday WO-bro's! The way things are feeling, the $9k threshold might serve as only a blip on the radar... and at least get us to the mid $9ks fairly quickly in order to begin eating away at any further resistance that might be present in the sub $10k arena. |
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One fairly established member messaged me on here the other day though asking me if I knew anybody who can facilitate 500k cash deal for bitcoin’s. Could have been hacked, after giving him a bit of advice I started to ignore his PM’s.
Sometimes reporting might be good too, depending on how cringeworthy the situation feels. I understand that some of the trust circles and members in providing escrow services can cause situations like that to become more common, but it does seem a bit weird to get contacted out of the blue... even though you are decently well known.. including your name recognition on BPIP.... hahahahaha |
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@JJG - I think it’s probably a good idea to sell some under $100,000. Maybe sell a % at a random, odd number because loads of dumb people are going to have sell orders at $100,000 bang on. It’ll probably cause a fairly big correction to $60,000 or $70,000 or something.
You can then buy back cheaper or if not take a MASSIVE profit from selling.
That's true. You don't really want to use round numbers, and a further point is that you don't necessarily want to put all your eggs in the basket that BTC is going to 4x to 8x beyond the previous ATH. I certainly would not advise anyone to sell BTC between around $18k and $25k, but I certainly don't oppose taking a little bit of corn off of the table at prices above $25k - certainly there is decent justification that once we get past previous ATH at least a doubling of BTC price will take place - into the $40k to $50k arena, but NOT even those kinds of comparatively modest gains are not guaranteed, even beyond 60% or 70%, assuming that we get past $25k... But certainly your point about round number is one that each person should be avoiding because round numbers are somewhat irrational, and even more irrational when decently large number of others are tending towards purposefully choosing to "wait out", their cashing of some profits until above those round numbers.... furthermore, sometimes, when a round number breaks, whether $10k, or $50k or $100k or some other number like that, many times there might end up being a 10% to 15% premium that plays out beyond the breaking of the round number - but even that remains a kind of likelihood without any kind of guarantee even while it plays out as a kind of tendency. |
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where's that jonoiv dude?
he was so sure...condescending even
He lost all credibility. He lost his HAT. worst..... He probably lost his BTC if he had any ..... mic, he said he sold them ALL at $6,000. He was waiting for $2,500 to rebuy. Too bad for him, he should have his hat stripped off him Edit - Will put RL hat on today. Just out atm, been to the bank to move some money so I can FOMO into the bitch. Well I wouldn't believe a single word of that troll... I doubt it he had any BTC at all... Actually, I recall asking him.her.it about quantity at some point, and similar to some of the other troll/shills they are frequently dealing with small amounts with a total BTC holding less than 1 BTC, and I recall that being the case with the BIG PLAYER, jonoiv, too. The fuck twat wants the whole BTC market to go down in order that he can buy back less than 1 BTC... Hardly a sympathetic character, even if you could have believed half of what he had said. |
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The thing is... What really matters are not ATH but bottoms. I mean, reaching or even surpassing some arbitrary utopian figure like $100K would be awesome but... unless one plans to sell it all/most trying to catch the ATH -which is risky business in itself- what really will count in the long term is how high the bottom afterwards will be.
Why do I say this? Because I think I am starting to delude myself into thinking that the next bottom will be high enough that I won't care about the correction/crash and not having sold at the top. Yes, I am thinking/hoping not only the next ATH is sky high, but the bottom is over the previous ATH ($19K). Something that will probably be the same mistake I did the last couple of times. And I will regret later.
But why am I posting this? I don't know, I am just thinking out loud.
#thelifeofthehodler
I am thinking OUT LOUD too that you are going to regret not selling more BTC at $250k (or whatever) when the BTC price dips (crashes) back down to $29k or something like that. It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth, even if you are still nearly a millionnaire (after the price dip) with your about 30-ish coins rather than a multi-millionnaire... It is still going to hurt to have less of a cushion from such a drastic price correction, even if you remain quite (perhaps even something approaching "filthy") rich. I don't know how each member lives or wanna live or do or.... I would just suggest HODL and when the time is there when you can take the profit to support your life goal etc Like for probably many a nice house, some stuff, little fiat to support those achievements... Maybe take care of that but not a single coin more should be sold (th written here is already a generous take from the stash imo) and if lucky and it would DIP deep then maybe the spare cash could provide a BTFD to recover the sold coins... This would be the dream scenario You can harvest gain from volatility with portfolio rebalancing along the lines of Shannon's Demon. The problem with saying NEVER SELL A SATOSHI comes when the price goes up by an order of magnitude. You have to sell to get back to a reasonable balance. Goes back down, you buy to get it in balance again. The limbic part of your brain should not have a part in this. Effect is increasing net assets. Bitcoin is the perfect asset for this. It's astoundingly volatile. Don't get whipsawed. The timeline for this strategy spans many years. Shannon's Demon? You got a link or a better explanation regarding such an approach? Is this a BTC customized approach? I will disclose that I have some issues with rebalancing for the mere sake of rebalancing which could take away some BTC profit potentials, but I don't have problems with the rest of what you seem to be saying, here. |
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The thing is... What really matters are not ATH but bottoms. I mean, reaching or even surpassing some arbitrary utopian figure like $100K would be awesome but... unless one plans to sell it all/most trying to catch the ATH -which is risky business in itself- what really will count in the long term is how high the bottom afterwards will be.
Why do I say this? Because I think I am starting to delude myself into thinking that the next bottom will be high enough that I won't care about the correction/crash and not having sold at the top. Yes, I am thinking/hoping not only the next ATH is sky high, but the bottom is over the previous ATH ($19K). Something that will probably be the same mistake I did the last couple of times. And I will regret later.
But why am I posting this? I don't know, I am just thinking out loud.
#thelifeofthehodler
I am thinking OUT LOUD too that you are going to regret not selling more BTC at $250k (or whatever) when the BTC price dips (crashes) back down to $29k or something like that. It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth, even if you are still nearly a millionnaire (after the price dip) with your about 30-ish coins rather than a multi-millionnaire... It is still going to hurt to have less of a cushion from such a drastic price correction, even if you remain quite (perhaps even something approaching "filthy") rich. I don't know how each member lives or wanna live or do or.... I would just suggest HODL and when the time is there when you can take the profit to support your life goal etc Like for probably many a nice house, some stuff, little fiat to support those achievements... Maybe take care of that but not a single coin more should be sold (th written here is already a generous take from the stash imo) and if lucky and it would DIP deep then maybe the spare cash could provide a BTFD to recover the sold coins... This would be the dream scenario There are probably a decent number of people who have invested in bitcoin, yet they live very modest lives - meaning that they do have either luxuries or an ability to really live in an extravagant way that is beyond the average person in their country. However, Bitcoin might provide an opportunity that is much beyond the returns of their other investments - which falls in the category of "life changing" wealth. Accordingly, rather than holding onto ALL BTC, there may be certain points in time that these "normal" mere mortals should exercise some prudence, including cashing out portions of their BTC in order to realize some of the profits - whether or not they later have "opportunities" to buy more BTC at a lower price. What price point for skimming off some BTC profits is going to vary for many folks - yet part of the point of my earlier post was to suggest that cashing out some BTC in the $100k to $250k range might be quite prudent, and actually, it might be quite prudent for folks to cash out some BTC at prices quite a bit lower than that kind of $100k to $250k price range... Also, let's attempt to stay real regarding what could actually happen, and there is far from any guarantee that BTC prices will come even close to reaching such astronomical levels - so in that regard, there could be some prudence to be cashing out small amounts of BTC all along, including now, that is if you are in considerable profits... and also depending on your timeline, etc etc etc. Now if you are just learning about BTC, and just establishing your stake in BTC, then that is a bit of a different story - but those folks who have been in BTC for a while, including the one who I was initially responding to (bitserve) may recognize some value in cashing out some BTC during the next bubble (presuming it comes) and might find that they are overblowing their speculations about NOT feeling "dread" during the next crash (which is almost as certain as anything else in BTC - even though we cannot really know the boundaries without any certainty). By the way, I already had witnessed a kind of level of dread that bitserve had been expressing during our previous correction - especially when we were in the sub $4k territory to speculate that the mere fact that he might be 10x richer in terms of BTC value during the next BTC price bubble (again presuming it comes) will still likely cause him a decent amount of dread, once again, in spite of being 10x richer in terms of BTC value. One way to lessen some of the dread is to cash out some comfortable portions, and to learn not to be second-guessing yourself - because it is almost inevitable that the BTC price is going to correct beyond expectations - but that mere inevitability should not justify changing the previously established plan by causing a selling of BTC on the way down (or failing to buy btc on the way down)... because there is no guarantee that if any guys (or gal) either sells BTC on the way down or fails/refuses to buy on the way down will be able to profit from further down (that might not happen). |
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Play money  First person ever to earn a fortune with his playmoney Nah it’s pocket change. Won’t turn the dial. But from little things big things grow. JJG: don’t mention the war Hey.. stop trying to censor me. Personally, I think that V8's bet was more than reasonable.. but Tone Vays was showing a certain level of nuts - that rose to the level of attention whoring for his business purposes. I have listened to some of Tone's price analysis, and he tends to make various reasonable assessments - but the BIG bets seems to be somewhat problematic for quasi-public figures who want to build credibility in bitcoin circles. |
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Play money Since you are doing so well, apparently, you may as well donate your .1BTC or whatever the fuck it was, bet to poor lilie V8, who likely is not doing so well waiting for the bottom to come in. But at least V8 is going to be better off than Tone Vays's $250k bet. |
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where's that jonoiv dude?
he was so sure...condescending even
He is waiting... in a dark corner... crying. Killed himself hopefully. Bearwhales didn't pay him for trolling  Part of me* wanted him to be right. I know you'll hate me for this but I wanted those cheap coins. Not so long ago I was hesitsting to buy from $5k... and bought quite a lot in May while the price were at that price point. (JJG didn't like my decision back then ) sigh. I wish I bought more. Since then I didn't get any throw away money and btc almost doubled its price. P.s I am not retarded enough to sell in a bull market with the hopes of buying from a cheaper price. uhm uhm no no no. *part of me is still in FIAT. That's what happens when you play both sides. Yes.,, ultimately each of us is responsible for our own choices regarding how to approach the matter and how to balance our fiat versus bitcoin holdings (and hopefully not over taxing ourselves). Sometimes in bitcoin it has really paid off for guys to really double down and/or leverage at the right price points (even though I would not have recommended such an approach)... so each of us continues to be faced with these kinds of dilemmas that are based on a variety of factors that are only known by ourselves, such as what is our cash flow, what are our other investments, risk tolerance, view of bitcoin, timeline and amount of time and skills that we can spend on our bitcoin investment. I would not be able to tell you whether I liked your approach or not, because I would not know your situation as well as you, even if you tried to explain it to me, through the interwebs. . |
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